Easiest improvements for 2020

[Plympton91]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019.shtml
I was perusing the 2019 Red Sox stays while responding to a different post and started thinking about what was most easily fixable in 2020 relative to 2019. This type of low hanging fruit will be especially important given the new focus on staying under the luxury tax thresholds. Fortunately, there are 2 ways to improve a lot.

It, First, the bad news. The Red Sox everyday lineup was insanely healthy last season. That represents a downside risk for 2020. It was really only at 2B where injuries bit badly. And because of that downside risk, it is imperative that the Res Sox build a better bench and find a 5th starter who can fog a mirror.

Last year’s bench was positively putrid. The team gave 611 Plate Appearances to players with an OPS below 550. Leon and Nunez combined for about 360 of those between them. And that didn’t include Marco Hernandez sucking to the tune of 617 in 155 PA. Any thought of him being a major player next season should be shelved.

in fact, Outside of the top 10 players by PA, there was no one one the roster who contributed positively. Blake Swihart was the 11th player on the team by OPS at 695.

The second area of easy improvement is the 5th starter spot. This spot was way way way below replacement level. Between Eovaldi, Chacin, Johnson, Velazquez, Weber, and Cashner they had a combined ERA above 6.00. Hence, if they do nothing more than simply plugging in the best available free agent starting pitcher still unsigned on March 1, 2020, it should be an improvement of about a run per game in that slot.

 

[jon abbey]

This is why Bloom was brought in, he will be great at building depth behind the stars, but it might take a year or two.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Lots of injuries at First Base, too. You have to expect them to get more production out of whoever is there in 2020 than you did out of Pearce and Moreland last year

 

[Plympton91]

Lots of injuries at First Base, too. You have to expect them to get more production out of whoever is there in 2020 than you did out of Pearce and Moreland last year

Moreland has an 835 OPS in 335 PAs, which is very good rate production and probably about 150 PA less than you’d like ideally.

but yeah, Pearce’s injury and ineffective 100 PA really killed their 1B plans last year. Getting a good platoon partner for Moreland would be one of the bench improvements that would raise the baseline over last year.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Possible 5th starter solution?

Latest on Kenta Maeda's Status With Dodgers

With a long but low-AAV contract (4 more years at $3.125M/year), he's kind of a perfect fit. The usage incentives would kick that up quite considerably, but as I understand it, they won't be in play for 2020, which is what matters most to the Sox.

I don't know what it would take to pry him loose, but something centered around Dalbec would work from the Sox' POV.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

It's obviously related to the fifth starter/pitching depth issues, but if I were the Red Sox, I'd make it a 2020 goal to have no bullpen days. For the most part, it felt like those should have been called White Flag days.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Moreland has an 835 OPS in 335 PAs, which is very good rate production and probably about 150 PA less than you’d like ideally.

but yeah, Pearce’s injury and ineffective 100 PA really killed their 1B plans last year. Getting a good platoon partner for Moreland would be one of the bench improvements that would raise the baseline over last year.

Isn’t that just Michael Chavis? Or is he not good enough and/or pencilled in more at 2B?

 

[Harry Hooper]

The 2020 season brings 26 players on the roster, which will probably end up a 13-13 split between pitchers and position players, especially if an opener or two are involved.

Bench:

Backup catcher - should be improved
Backup middle infielder - no upgrade expected
Platoon RHH corner IF guy - should be improved
Backup OF - can Bloom find a cheap Damon Buford-type?

 

[chawson]

It's obviously related to the fifth starter/pitching depth issues, but if I were the Red Sox, I'd make it a 2020 goal to have no bullpen days. For the most part, it felt like those should have been called White Flag days.

I think the team could have fewer all-hands-on-deck bullpen days, but probably more opener/bulk starter days.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019.shtml
The second area of easy improvement is the 5th starter spot. This spot was way way way below replacement level. Between Eovaldi, Chacin, Johnson, Velazquez, Weber, and Cashner they had a combined ERA above 6.00. Hence, if they do nothing more than simply plugging in the best available free agent starting pitcher still unsigned on March 1, 2020, it should be an improvement of about a run per game in that slot.

To me the greatest failure of the Red Sox development system is that they don't already have this guy in-house. The fact that they don't think there is anyone in the system who could replicate Porcello's 2019 production at 5-10% of the salary is damning.

 

[Plympton91]

Isn’t that just Michael Chavis? Or is he not good enough and/or pencilled in more at 2B?

I’d have Chavis as the starting 2B right now. He was competent defensively, and playing him at 2B minimizes the downside risk of a sophomore slump and maximizes the excess value if he really is a .250 / .300 / .500 guy.

 

[nvalvo]

To me the greatest failure of the Red Sox development system is that they don't already have this guy in-house. The fact that they don't think there is anyone in the system who could replicate Porcello's 2019 production at 5-10% of the salary is damning.

I don't know that he would match the innings — which is of course the best part of Porcello — but I wouldn't be shocked if Tanner Houck could put up numbers in the range of Porcello's 5.50 ERA as a 5th starter. I know: faint praise.

Like many of the Sox' pitchers in 2019, he started slow. He got completely rocked by the Fightin' Phils in his first Eastern League start — giving up more than 1 in 6 of the ER he would in his 15 starts as a SP — but then went on to post a very nice line in his next 14, before the Sox shifted him to the bullpen: 3.03 ERA, 77 1/3IP, 75/27 K/BB. His line in Pawtucket out of the bullpen included a ton of walks, but it was otherwise pretty good. And then he had a very respectable six starts in the AFL: a 3.47 ERA, 26K/12BB in 23 IP.

All told, that's about 130 IP between Portland, Pawtucket, and Peoria. So he's probably ready for a jump to 150 IP or so.

But I think those numbers from a 23 year old in Portland and Pawtucket probably translates to about a 5.50 ERA in the AL East. Obviously, we're a better team if he's 6/7/8 on the starting pitching depth chart, but he looks like a credible option to take major league starts in 2020. He's likely already passed Brian Johnson, or would have if he were on the 40-man.

Fake edit: Steamer projects Houck for 11 starts, 65 IP, and a 5.37 ERA, FWIW.

 

[geoflin]

Getting a good platoon partner for Moreland would be one of the bench improvements that would raise the baseline over last year.

Moreland is a free agent, unlikely to return here.

 

[Plympton91]

Moreland is a free agent, unlikely to return here.

I think they are likely to resign him or one of the 4 other guys like him on the market this winter. They have to sign someone, we are not going to give the job to Travis, Dalbec, and Ockimey (who had a better OPS at AAA than Dalbec).

 

[chawson]

I think they are likely to resign him or one of the 4 other guys like him on the market this winter. They have to sign someone, we are not going to give the job to Travis, Dalbec, and Ockimey (who had a better OPS at AAA than Dalbec).

Trying to guess who the other four Morelands are (as you’re seeing it)...Alonso, Thames, Smoak and Walker?

 

[Plympton91]

Trying to guess who the other four Morelands are (as you’re seeing it)...Alonso, Thames, Smoak and Walker?

Might even be more than 4; Adams, Kendrick, Smoak, Thames for sure; could go to Miller as well, or Zimmerman if he’d leave the Nats.

I’d take Moreland back at a similar 2 year contract he’s coming off though. He’s an 800 OPS guy with excellent defense. The injury bug that he’s had doesn’t seem to be the result of anything chronic.