Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I don't think P91 is right, but I don't think it's ridiculous. The general aging curve with defense is down. If Drew made the improvement UZR shows, he was running against the trend.
Drew is walking through that door
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I don't think P91 is right, but I don't think it's ridiculous. The general aging curve with defense is down. If Drew made the improvement UZR shows, he was running against the trend.
One thought about Drew's early UZRs:
If I understand how UZR is measured, a player's UZR can improve from one year to the next simply because the average talent level of the players at that position has declined. The top six shortstops in defensive value in the NL in 2007 were the following:
Omar Vizquel
Troy Tulowitzki (age 22)
J.J. Hardy (age 24)
Jose Reyes (age 24)
Adam Everett
Jimmy Rollins
Also in the mix were Khalil Greene in his young defensive-whiz phase, plus veteran or mid-career glove specialists Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, Cesar Izturis and Jack Wilson. I would guess you could make a plausible case that that was the best collection of defensive shortstop talent in a single league in baseball history. Most of those guys were back in 2008, but by 2009 Everett, Izturis, and Vizquel were gone, and Reyes and Greene had injury-related dips, thinning out the competition a bit. And that's when Drew's UZR kicked up.
So you have at least three possible factors interacting to create the sudden jump: the inherent imprecision of UZR, the likelihood that Drew gained skill and/or confidence with playing time, and the fact that his performance may have been measured against a somewhat less lofty bar after his first couple of years.
If I understand how UZR is measured, a player's UZR can improve from one year to the next simply because the average talent level of the players at that position has declined. The top six shortstops in defensive value in the NL in 2007 were the following:
Omar Vizquel
Troy Tulowitzki (age 22)
J.J. Hardy (age 24)
Jose Reyes (age 24)
Adam Everett
Jimmy Rollins
Also in the mix were Khalil Greene in his young defensive-whiz phase, plus veteran or mid-career glove specialists Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, Cesar Izturis and Jack Wilson. I would guess you could make a plausible case that that was the best collection of defensive shortstop talent in a single league in baseball history. Most of those guys were back in 2008, but by 2009 Everett, Izturis, and Vizquel were gone, and Reyes and Greene had injury-related dips, thinning out the competition a bit. And that's when Drew's UZR kicked up.
So you have at least three possible factors interacting to create the sudden jump: the inherent imprecision of UZR, the likelihood that Drew gained skill and/or confidence with playing time, and the fact that his performance may have been measured against a somewhat less lofty bar after his first couple of years.
Plympton91 said:
UZR and defensive metrics tend to get a pretty bad rap. Many offensive statistics take 1.5-2 years worth of data to stabilize, but we accept them as accurate in 50 game samples because they feel familiar to us.
I'm not saying defensive metrics don't need a lot of work - because they do - but criticizing those who develop them for properly regressing the data doesn't seem quite fair.
Good article at mlb.com about Drew's arrival and the context thereof. I particularly liked reading this:
nvalvo said:
I don't pretend to get UZR, but I don't understand the sentiment that suggests that, say, at age 26, a player improves dramatically in the field. I mean, we have evidence that suggests strongly that lots of players break out offensively around that age (26-28). Why can't they improve defensively? Why can't they finally figure out their footwork, or develop a stronger, more accurate arm, or learn to get better reads on batted balls, or refine their glove skills? If they can do it with the bat, why not with the glove?
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 25s
Also of interest: Farrell implied that a maximum 10-day minor league stint was negotiated for Drew. Ready or not, he was coming up.
This is something that can be done? Most likely explains why Kendrys Morales is not going to MILB first
Also of interest: Farrell implied that a maximum 10-day minor league stint was negotiated for Drew. Ready or not, he was coming up.
This is something that can be done? Most likely explains why Kendrys Morales is not going to MILB first
It can be done because Drew had an option, but he and Boras didn't want him rotting in Pawtucket.
soxhop411 said:
Morales is out of options, so the Twins can't send him down unless they DL him first. Alternatively they could have signed him to a minor league deal with the promise of the major league deal kicking in as soon as he was ready.
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