Draft Q&A with Mike Loyko of NEPatriotsDraft.com

[RedOctober3829]

NEPD editor Mike Loyko has graciously agreed to do a draft Q&A with us. Mike is one of the best resources on the Internet when it comes to all things NFL Draft especially from a Patriots perspective. His annual Draft Guide is out for purchase on nepatriotsdraft.com. It is 315 pages of scouting reports on any and every prospect.

Thanks to SSF for helping to make this happen.

Please post any questions or comments for Mike and he'll be popping in now and then to answer. Also give him a follow on Twitter @NEPD_Loyko.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Just a fabulous job RO for setting this up! I've moved the thread to the main BbtL board for more exposure (and temporarily unpinned a couple of threads). 
 
Just to add Mike is also the editor of NEPatriotsDraft.com (our friend Doug Kyed at NESN was also a former editor), an awesome resource for not just prospects but on free agents and X's/O's breakdown. His latest post has his mock 4.0:
 
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/04/mike-loykos-2014-mock-draft.html (spoiler -- he has Pats picking up SoSH favorite LB Ryan Shazier)
 
and a list of all prospect reviews:
 
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/category/scouting-reports
 
Also don't miss his reaction on Revis signing: 
 
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/03/patriots-pull-off-a-stunner-and-land-cb-darrelle-revis.html
 
NEPD also has a strong roster of contributing writers, who often go in-depth and provide analysis that can't easily be found elsewhere. For example, I recently enjoyed this 'explosive' breakdown of all available TEs:
 
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/03/2014-te-prospects-analyzing-athleticism.html

 

[MainerInExile]

Mike - thanks a lot for doing this.

A lot of national mocks have the Pats taking a WR early. Other writers (such as at Espnboston) note that with the 2nd year palyers, Edelman, LaFell, and Amendola, there does not appear to be a lot of roster space.

Where are you on the likelihood of a WR in the draft? And if they do draft one, at whose expense?

 

[RedOctober3829]

It seems BB does the opposite of what everybody thinks he'll do in the draft. Have you heard any rumors of anything up his sleeve that will surprise us all?

Based on the Patriots' needs, what's the one player you'd realistically trade up for that could make the biggest difference?

Any sleeper guys for the Pats?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

If you are a team that needs a quarterback in this draft, how realistic is is that you will have serious interest in trading a pick (possible second rounder) for Ryan Mallet rather than take a chance on any of the QB's in this draft even if 4 of the top 6 QB's in this draft are available to you in the second round?  Does the fact the BoB is the HC at Houston change the equation at all for them?

 

[mloyko54]

Mike - thanks a lot for doing this.

A lot of national mocks have the Pats taking a WR early. Other writers (such as at Espnboston) note that with the 2nd year palyers, Edelman, LaFell, and Amendola, there does not appear to be a lot of roster space.

Where are you on the likelihood of a WR in the draft? And if they do draft one, at whose expense?

 
I would be very surprised if the Patriots selected a Wide Receiver in the first round. A) It's not Belichick's M.O. B) This draft is deeper than ever at WR and they will find some great value in rounds 3-5. I do think the Patriots will draft a receiver at somepoint likely in the 3rd or 4th round. As for the current roster LaFell, Edelman, Dobson, Amendola are locks. I believe Josh Boyce will be on the team, but Kenbrell Thompkins is far far from a lock to make the team. He plateau'd early and there is a reason why he went undrafted. He's older and not nearly as talented. THe Patriots can easily find a receiver to upgrade Kenbrell Thompkins. The injury to Dobson also makes picking a WR more likely, they need depth and insurance in case he isn't ready. 

 

[mloyko54]

It seems BB does the opposite of what everybody thinks he'll do in the draft. Have you heard any rumors of anything up his sleeve that will surprise us all?

Based on the Patriots' needs, what's the one player you'd realistically trade up for that could make the biggest difference?

Any sleeper guys for the Pats?

 
BIll Belichick always pulls off one surprise per draft, I just hope this year it isn't a massive reach. It seems with Belichick picks the best players available it works out great for them. When he goes off the board to pick someone like a Tavon Wilson doesn't work. I'm sure there will be something this year that surprises us, I'm just not sure what. 
 
I wouldn't trade up this year unless I can get into the top 5, which the Patriots can't the players you can draft at #29 are very similar to the players that will be drafted at #10-#11. This year's draft is loaded with high quality talent from pick #1 to about 75. 

 

[mloyko54]

If you are a team that needs a quarterback in this draft, how realistic is is that you will have serious interest in trading a pick (possible second rounder) for Ryan Mallet rather than take a chance on any of the QB's in this draft even if 4 of the top 6 QB's in this draft are available to you in the second round?  Does the fact the BoB is the HC at Houston change the equation at all for them?

 
 
Nobody is giving up a 2nd Rounder for Ryan Mallett, especially in this draft. There is enough quality QB depth that a team's that need a passer will have options deep into the 3rd-4th rounds. 

 

[jsinger121]

Mike, Top area of needs in this order?
 
DL, TE, OL, SS, LB, QB, WR

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Thanks, Mike! I'll be interested to see your take on some of the thoughts here.
 
What are your thoughts on Mark Harrison? Is he camp fodder, or is there something more there? Is it possible the Pats move him to TE? And if so does that change the draft strategy at all?

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Hi Mike, thanks for doing this.
 
There was a lot of discussion after the Pats worked out all the top QBs in the last few weeks. Do you think Bill looks for Tom's future replacement in this draft and takes a QB? Any players in particular they might look to groom?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Mike, I think CJ Fiedoriwicz is a perfect Pat in a position of need.

With the Ferentz connection, the Iowa TE can be a terrific all around contributor behind Gronk. What have you seen from him and how does he compare in value as a 3/4th rounder vs. ASJ, Amaro, and Niklas who will go in first two rounds?

Also is the rumor that Lyerla is off NE board true? If not CJF, what about Lynch?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Mike, I think Jake Matthews is the top OL in this draft ahead of Greg Robinson. Tell me why I am wrong.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Also please share the inner workings and processes NEPD has in place - it has consistently delivered the goods and every contributor seems to be knowledgeable and passionate.

 

[mloyko54]

Mike, I think CJ Fiedoriwicz is a perfect Pat in a position of need.

With the Ferentz connection, the Iowa TE can be a terrific all around contributor behind Gronk. What have you seen from him and how does he compare in value as a 3/4th rounder vs. ASF, Amaro, and Niklas who will go in first two rounds?

Also is the rumor that Lyerla is off NE board true? If not CJF, what about Lynch?

 
From my understanding the Patriots prefer Troy Niklas over Fiedorowicz. They will have to take Niklas in the second round and for all the connections Belichick has with Ferentz, he's built equally strong, if not better connections with Brian Kelly over the last three years. Fiedorowicz is likely more of a back-up plan at this point. His ceiling as a receiver is much lower than that of the other top receivers. 
 
I'd be shocked if they took Colt Lyerla, I don't have any first hand knowledge that he's off their board, but I'd assume so. 
 
Arthur Lynch would be a nice pick up in the later rounds if they miss out on the top tied Tight Ends. 

 

[mloyko54]

Mike, I think Jake Matthews is the top OL in this draft ahead of Greg Robinson. Tell me why I am wrong.

 
Jake Matthews will be a very good pro. He's technically sound, can play both Tackle spots, and is a very safe player. Robinson simply has rare skills across the board. His combination of athleticism and power is something not seen often in Tackle prospects. His ceiling, after developing his technique and getting coached up, is truly special. 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

This may be a little boring, but I figured it's worth asking.
 
With Gostkowski's cap hit being the 10th highest on the team this year ($3.8 million), a few people feel that having a kicker take up so much cap space may not be the best use of resources.
 
Cutting him this year saves the team $2.5 million against the cap. Is there any reason to believe that the Patriots could use one of their late round picks on a kicker this year? If so, have you done any research on kickers to give us the strengths/weaknesses of the better collegiate kickers this year? As always, it seems a bit muddled at the top of this position (I've seen Fera, Boswell, Catanzaro, Freese, Santos all mentioned as the first kicker taken).

 

[bakahump]

Mike,
 
Considering the deep draft and the growing possibility of a QB dropping, what would you put the odds at that the Pats trade out of the first round?

 

[soxhop411]

Mike,
Have you heard if the Pats have had any interest in Cody Latimer?

Thanks

 

[mloyko54]

Mike,
Have you heard if the Pats have had any interest in Cody Latimer?

Thanks

 
Latimer has not had much pre-draft contact with the Patriots. I believe the Panthers are the most likely landing spot for Latimer. 

 

[mloyko54]

This may be a little boring, but I figured it's worth asking.
 
With Gostkowski's cap hit being the 10th highest on the team this year ($3.8 million), a few people feel that having a kicker take up so much cap space may not be the best use of resources.
 
Cutting him this year saves the team $2.5 million against the cap. Is there any reason to believe that the Patriots could use one of their late round picks on a kicker this year? If so, have you done any research on kickers to give us the strengths/weaknesses of the better collegiate kickers this year? As always, it seems a bit muddled at the top of this position (I've seen Fera, Boswell, Catanzaro, Freese, Santos all mentioned as the first kicker taken).

 
I'd be shocked if they used a draft pick on a kicker. Gostkowski is coming off his best season and the Patriots can lessen his cap hit by resigning him to an extension. 

 

[mloyko54]

Keep the Questions coming. 
 
I just want to let everyone know about the comprehensive NFL Draft Guide I've produced this year. I'd love for everyone to check it out and buy a copy of it. Here are some screen shots of the profiles and cover. It contains 320 pages with 315 full-page scouting reports on all the top players. It's a great resource to have as you follow the draft and is great to look back on during the year. 
 
Here is the link to purchase the PDF. I'd really appreciate everyone's support. Keep the questions rolling!
 
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/04/mike-loykos-2014-nfl-draft-guide-now-available.html

 

[Shelterdog]

So Safety--what gives? Are Harmon and Wilson expected to be real contributors or are they looking at the draft?

 

[MainerInExile]

I'd also love a CB comment.  On the one hand, they have Revis, Browner, Arrington, Dennard, and Ryan - that's already 5 quality players.  On the other hand, Revis is on (essentially) a 1 year deal. Browner's salary also jumps quite a bit after year 1, so there are no guarantees there either.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Piggybacking on Shelter's question, does having Revis (even for a year) change how they look at the type of safety they may bring in? 
 
It's been repeated that Pats need to acquire (via draft or FA) a physical strong safety -- is that an acceptable approach given that Gregory and McD were the smallest duo in the league last year? Is there some X's and O's reason as not to prioritize a SS?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I happen to think that drafting a RB this year is a mistake. 
 
Sure Vereen and Ridley are at the end of their contracts, but 1) RBs can always be drafted and be ready to start in year 1 and 2) FA RB's can be had for as cheap a cap hit as ever. 
 
Why would BB draft a RB even in later rounds this year (a developmental OL or LB seems more needed)? And if he does, who stands out as a possible fit? To me someone like Lache Seastrunk would be dynamic in this offense. 

 

[Shelterdog]

Another question.  Any "move" TEs that we should be looking out for later in the draft? Other than Jace Amaro I haven't heard a lot of names pop up for that position, but it seems like a need.

 

[Shelterdog]

And since you asked for it a third: do any of my stanford guys look like a fit to you? It seems like Yankey in the second, Murphy in the second or third, Reynolds in the fourth or so, and even Gardner in five or six would all fit Pats' needs pretty well.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

A few of us put on a Pats GM hat and had submitted our own mock draft here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/82418-sosh-gms-submit-your-patriots-mock-draft/
 
Any picks that stand out as some that could play out in real life? (My 6th round pick on Lyerla won't make the cut )

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

And since you asked for it a third: do any of my stanford guys look like a fit to you? It seems like Yankey in the second, Murphy in the second or third, Reynolds in the fourth or so, and even Gardner in five or six would all fit Pats' needs pretty well.

 
Would love your input on Yankey as well -- would love for a miracle and have Bitonio fall to Pats in round 2, but looks like he'll be long gone before that.

 

[Super Nomario]

I happen to think that drafting a RB this year is a mistake. 
 
Sure Vereen and Ridley are at the end of their contracts, but 1) RBs can always be drafted and be ready to start in year 1 and 2) FA RB's can be had for as cheap a cap hit as ever. 
 
Why would BB draft a RB even in later rounds this year (a developmental OL or LB seems more needed)? And if he does, who stands out as a possible fit? To me someone like Lache Seastrunk would be dynamic in this offense. 

It's easy to say "RB can always be drafted and be ready to start in year 1" but how many do so? And how high do you have to draft one if you're going to pencil him in as a day one starter? Using a third or fourth this year might eliminate having to use a first or second next year.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

It's easy to say "RB can always be drafted and be ready to start in year 1" but how many do so? And how high do you have to draft one if you're going to pencil him in as a day one starter? Using a third or fourth this year might eliminate having to use a first or second next year.

 
A 2nd round talent would be #1-#3 RB prospect in a given year, right? So wouldn't it make sense to wait for the 2015 draft to get a true replacement for Ridley and/or Vereen? Is having a RB in a system for a year make that much difference (as it would for a WR)?
 
If anything, a 4th rounder on Seastrunk may do the trick this year -- whatchasay Mike?

 

[mloyko54]

So Safety--what gives? Are Harmon and Wilson expected to be real contributors or are they looking at the draft?

 
I believe Bill Belichick has intentions of moving Logan Ryan to free safety. Tavon Wilson is straight garbage. Duron Harmon showed some promise, but not enough to start next year. I think they could draft a Safety, but their track record hasn't been great recently. 

 

[mloyko54]

And since you asked for it a third: do any of my stanford guys look like a fit to you? It seems like Yankey in the second, Murphy in the second or third, Reynolds in the fourth or so, and even Gardner in five or six would all fit Pats' needs pretty well.

 
The Stanford players get exposed during the draft process. David Yankey is severly overrated. He goes to the ground all the time and is more like a mid-round prospect. Murphy is stiff and can't bend the edge. I like Ben Gardner alot and think he could go higher than people expect. 

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Would love your input on Yankey as well -- would love for a miracle and have Bitonio fall to Pats in round 2, but looks like he'll be long gone before that.

 
I thought he was great--he was a mauling left guard who moved well, although predominantly in a power-based scheme.  His combine results were garbage which was inconsistent with how he plays, but the Stanford strength coach does all sorts of funky stuff (a lot of flexibility/body weight/ functional strength stuff and less olympic-type lifting) so maybe that's the culprit. He strikes me as a wonderful candidate to play RG.  But then again it's o-line play and nobody knows anything.

 

[mloyko54]

 
A 2nd round talent would be #1-#3 RB prospect in a given year, right? So wouldn't it make sense to wait for the 2015 draft to get a true replacement for Ridley and/or Vereen? Is having a RB in a system for a year make that much difference (as it would for a WR)?
 
If anything, a 4th rounder on Seastrunk may do the trick this year -- whatchasay Mike?

 
Belichick always drafts a year in advanced. They will draft a RB this year and maybe two. The value they will get in the middle rounds is unlike anything in the past. They will get 2nd-3rd round caliber backs 2 rounds later. They badly need another pass catcher out of the backfield. Losing Danny Woodhead hurt more than anyone realized. 

 

[jsinger121]

Top area of needs in this order?
 
DL, TE, OL, SS, LB, QB, WR

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

 
Belichick always drafts a year in advanced. They will draft a RB this year and maybe two. The value they will get in the middle rounds is unlike anything in the past. They will get 2nd-3rd round caliber backs 2 rounds later. They badly need another pass catcher out of the backfield. Losing Danny Woodhead hurt more than anyone realized. 

So candidates for this year? On Seastrunk? (I just like typing his name.)

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Mike, if there was a player that you don't want ending up at each of our AFCE rivals who would it be?

 

[SMU_Sox]

First of all thank you so much for this chat!
 
 
Marion Grice is my RB binky - any rumblings on him to the Pats?
 
Seems like our depth for DE is rather... lacking. Do you think the Pats address this in the first 2 rounds. And if you had to pick between Hageman and Tuitt who would you take and why (not that either are necessarily DE's although I think both could play a 3-4 DE)?

 

[Super Nomario]

 
A 2nd round talent would be #1-#3 RB prospect in a given year, right? So wouldn't it make sense to wait for the 2015 draft to get a true replacement for Ridley and/or Vereen? Is having a RB in a system for a year make that much difference (as it would for a WR)?

Maybe not so much for development (though it can help with stuff like receiving and pass protection), but they lost Blount and haven't replaced him, and Bolden played 21% of snaps last year, which is a number I'd like to see go down.
 
As for a "true replacement" for Ridley, what does that mean? Do you need to replace his 290 carries, 1263 yards, and 12 TDs from 2012, or his 178 carries, 773 yards, and 7 TDs from last year? Do you need a bellcow back who takes 60% of the snaps and carries the rock 250 times, or just a committee player. Does he need to be able to play on 3rd down? I think putting another piece of the puzzle in place now gives you more options in terms of how you address the position in the offseason.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Thanks, Mike! I'll be interested to see your take on some of the thoughts here.
 
What are your thoughts on Mark Harrison? Is he camp fodder, or is there something more there? Is it possible the Pats move him to TE? And if so does that change the draft strategy at all?

 
Just read Oliver's fantastic article on this at NEPD.com. Sorry for the redundancy. 

 

[mloyko54]

 
Just read Oliver's fantastic article on this at NEPD.com. Sorry for the redundancy. 
 

 
Harrison will have a lot of trouble making it past the end of August. 

 

[mloyko54]

First of all thank you so much for this chat!
 
 
Marion Grice is my RB binky - any rumblings on him to the Pats?
 
Seems like our depth for DE is rather... lacking. Do you think the Pats address this in the first 2 rounds. And if you had to pick between Hageman and Tuitt who would you take and why (not that either are necessarily DE's although I think both could play a 3-4 DE)?

Yes I think the Patriots have some interest in Marion Grice 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
Harrison will have a lot of trouble making it past the end of August. 

 
You have the Pats taking former Scarlet Knight, or as we like to call them the Patriots minor league affiliate,Brandon Coleman in your latest mock. Coleman has a height, strength and age advantage but Harrison has the edge in every other attribute. What, in your opinion, makes Coleman the better fit? 

 

[mloyko54]

 
You have the Pats taking former Scarlet Knight, or as we like to call them the Patriots minor league affiliate,Brandon Coleman in your latest mock. Coleman has a height, strength and age advantage but Harrison has the edge in every other attribute. What, in your opinion, makes Coleman the better fit? 

 
Coleman has much more upside as a receiver. More natural receiver, better route runner, better height. Coleman was crushed by bad QB play his entire career and he had 4 OC in 4 years. Coleman is a far superior prospect. Harrison is more of a product of his size/speed. 
 
And I am pretty good friends with Harrison's agent.. I've told him these things personally, I don't think they are widely debated lol. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
Coleman has much more upside as a receiver. More natural receiver, better route runner, better height. Coleman was crushed by bad QB play his entire career and he had 4 OC in 4 years. Coleman is a far superior prospect. Harrison is more of a product of his size/speed. 
 
And I am pretty good friends with Harrison's agent.. I've told him these things personally, I don't think they are widely debated lol. 

 
Oh, you know his agent. That's... cool?
 
From what I've read and seen tape of, Harrison is better against press coverage and gaining yards after the catch. He's much more physical than the taller Coleman and seems to make plays for the ball better when covered. They both seem somewhat like projects who have had recent injuries (Colemans knee, Harrisons foot.) They seem to me to be very similar and I'm surprised you think Coleman is far superior.

 

[MainerInExile]

 
I believe Bill Belichick has intentions of moving Logan Ryan to free safety. Tavon Wilson is straight garbage. Duron Harmon showed some promise, but not enough to start next year. I think they could draft a Safety, but their track record hasn't been great recently. 

Ties in to the CB question, I guess, but how does moving Ryan to FS make sense given they have DMC?  Do you think they'll move to more 2-deep safeties?  Having DMC play SS would be odd, given he does so well as a single high safety (and he's not very big).

 

[mloyko54]

Ties in to the CB question, I guess, but how does moving Ryan to FS make sense given they have DMC?  Do you think they'll move to more 2-deep safeties?  Having DMC play SS would be odd, given he does so well as a single high safety (and he's not very big).

 
Having a true Strong Safety has become a luxury. With the league pass heavy teams use and need two Free Safeties or combo safties. It's more important that your safeties can cover instead of hit now a days. 

 

[Dogman]

Thoughts on UMontana LB's Brock Coyle or Jordan Tripp in a Dane Fletcher/ST type role?  
 
I've seen mocks with Tripp going as high as the 4th but I don't think that is realistic.  I see both as 7th or undrafted guys who can both contribute.