Correct.
Remaining games impacting SOS (* 2x impact):
Week 17 - MIA-CLE*, DET-SF* (MNF)
Week 18 - NYG-PHI, CHI-GB, LAC-LV*, CLE-BAL, CIN-PIT
In order to slide to 5, (1) all of the following results must occur: NEP must beat BUF, JAX must lose to IND, HOU must beat TEN, PHI must beat NYG, CLE must lose to both MIA & BAL, SF must beat DET, CHI must beat GB, LAC must beat LV and CIN must beat PIT and (2) JAX must win a different tiebreaker versus NEP.
NEP/JAX common games (7): BUF, MIA, NYJ, HOU, IND, TEN, CHI
NEP other games (10): BUF, MIA, NYJ, JAX, ARI, SEA, LAR, SF, CIN, LAC (78-80 SOS as of Dec29 early games)
JAX other games (10): NEP, HOU, IND, TEN, GB, MIN, DET, PHI, LV, CLE (80-78 SOS as of Dec29 early games, plus GB-MIN)