Draft Pick Watch

reggiecleveland

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The Bills will have the 2-seed locked up next week, right? Watch them do whatever they can to lose that game and screw over the Pats.

Mitch Trubsisky and the 3rd string Bills against Jerod Mayo coaching for his job (in his mind at least)? I don't like the odds.
This is where I am
 

E5 Yaz

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You know, Maye's been battered a bit the past couple of weeks. We've seen enough to know he can be a true No. 1. Perhaps, purely for health reasons, the Patriots should make him the emergecy QB for the Bills game
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

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You know, Maye's been battered a bit the past couple of weeks. We've seen enough to know he can be a true No. 1. Perhaps, purely for health reasons, the Patriots should make him the emergecy QB for the Bills game
That sounds great & all, until the league opens up another faux investigation & docks us our #1 pick (& more). ;)
 

DJnVa

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There are only so many guys the Bills can actually rest--it's a 53 man roster. They can't rest 22 starters.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They’ve won 1 game with Maye as starter; against the Bears who haven’t won since October 13.
Fully confident that this team can lose to the Bills no matter who they play at QB.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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PFN Mock Draft Simulator is updated. Getting some offers for #1.
 

DJnVa

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I edited my post when I realized that was what was meant. I was reading this as just the Draft Pick Watch thread, not a thread about what to do with the pick, like we have in the "Temperature Gauge" thread
There's a lot happening right now.
 

soxpatscelts1524

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I edited my post when I realized that was what was meant. I was reading this as just the Draft Pick Watch thread, not a thread about what to do with the pick, like we have in the "Temperature Gauge" thread
Yeah, I meant to reply to the guy saying that LV dropping down to 10 is a bummer for us because it'd be too far to move down in a trade, but messed up the quote.
 

twibnotes

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If we trade down, we need to trade to the last spot we can get an elite guy regardless of position. I know the team has a ton of holes, but you need blue chip players.

I’d still like to come away with a Graham, Johnson, or Carter
 

soxpatscelts1524

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If we trade down, we need to trade to the last spot we can get an elite guy regardless of position. I know the team has a ton of holes, but you need blue chip players.

I’d still like to come away with a Graham, Johnson, or Carter
I'm of the opinion that while we need elite players, elite prospects are different than elite players. Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas look way better than Marvin Harrison. Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater went 12 and 13 way behind Kyle Pitts. I want as many shots at the apple as possible, and I want us to swing for the fences, but I don't necessarily think we should have our hearts set on an "elite prospect." A lot of the value in those guys is that they tend to be safer bets at being impact players. That's valuable, but I'm not sure we should be valuing that over multiple first rounders. Of course, if there are no great trade down offers, I'd love Graham, Johnson or Carter. But if we end up with a haul and take high upside guys, I'm okay with that too.
 

DJnVa

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Tankathon currently has LV at #8. Am I missing something?
That they guy was just making a guess on where they would fall before the games went final? He was just talking about how they were falling out of the top 5 or 6.

They'll finish top 9 unless they win again.

Top 9 means you can get on of: 2 QBs, Hunter, Johnson, Campbell, Banks, Carter, or Tet.
 

twibnotes

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I'm of the opinion that while we need elite players, elite prospects are different than elite players. Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas look way better than Marvin Harrison. Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater went 12 and 13 way behind Kyle Pitts. I want as many shots at the apple as possible, and I want us to swing for the fences, but I don't necessarily think we should have our hearts set on an "elite prospect." A lot of the value in those guys is that they tend to be safer bets at being impact players. That's valuable, but I'm not sure we should be valuing that over multiple first rounders. Of course, if there are no great trade down offers, I'd love Graham, Johnson or Carter. But if we end up with a haul and take high upside guys, I'm okay with that too.
I fear that was exactly what wolf was thinking when he looked past mcconkey

I watch a lot of big ten football so I’m going with what I know, but the guys I cited were good players for a long long stretch in college. I just feel we can’t miss anymore at the top of the draft. If it’s true the draft is top heavy, don’t trade out of the top heavy part

edit: typo
 
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NomarsFool

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Looks like a pretty good opportunity to play TEN and NYG off of each other for #1 (if TEN has a preference for Ward vs. Sanders). You can stil also field offers from LV (maybe even NYJ - is Rodgers a FA - can't imagine he's back?). I know Cleveland restructured Watson's contract, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.
 

soxpatscelts1524

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I fear that was exactly what wolf was thinking when he looked past mcconkey

I watch a lot of big ten football so I’m going with what I know, but the guys I cited were good players for a long long stretch in college. I just feel we can’t miss anymore at the top of the draft. If it’s true the draft is top heavy, don’t trade out of the top heavy part

edit: typo
My opinion is actually that Wolf did the opposite. He locked into the WR position and viewed Polk and McConkey relatively similarly (remember, coaching connection for Polk), but sacrificed value because he wasn't willing to lose Polk. Remember, Wolf not only drafted a total bust, he also got a very poor return on the trade down compared to Arizona, who traded down from 35 to 43. They got a 3rd for a 6th because they were willing to move down to 43, while we only got a 4th for a 5th.

Either way though, I'd much prefer grabbing Graham, Carter or Johnson over what I think Wolf is likely to do: Lock in on the OT position and draft Will Campbell over those guys. While I'd slightly prefer at the margin accumulating more picks, I think the most important thing is that we have a competent GM in place who drafts the best player available and hews relatively closely to the consensus big board. That will yield far better results than we have with Wolf so far.
 

finnVT

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Tankathon currently has LV at #8. Am I missing something?
I'm apparently just bad at adding small integers. (I think I was looking at standings assuming they hadn't updated when in fact they had, and screwed up projecting where teams would end the day).
 

Steve Dillard

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The #1 pick is within their grasp. Let's not let Ramondre handle it.
 

amfox1

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While it's mathematically possible to slide to #5, top 4 is much more likely.
Correct.

Remaining games impacting SOS (* 2x impact):
Week 17 - DET-SF* (MNF)
Week 18 - NYG-PHI, CHI-GB, LAC-LV*, CLE-BAL, CIN-PIT

In order to slide to 5, (1) all of the following results must occur: NEP must beat BUF, JAX must lose to IND, HOU must beat TEN, PHI must beat NYG, CLE must lose to BAL, SF must beat DET, CHI must beat GB, LAC must beat LV and CIN must beat PIT and (2) JAX must win a different tiebreaker versus NEP.

NEP/JAX common games (7): BUF, MIA, NYJ, HOU, IND, TEN, CHI
NEP other games (10): BUF, MIA, NYJ, JAX, ARI, SEA, LAR, SF, CIN, LAC (79-80 SOS as of Dec29)
JAX other games (10): NEP, HOU, IND, TEN, GB, MIN, DET, PHI, LV, CLE (80-79 SOS as of Dec29)

EDIT: updated through Dec29 games
 
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Eddie Jurak

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Especially if the Giants win, we should just rest Maye next week or have him pick up a little "injury" in practice.
Give the fans what they want - Joe Milton at QB.

Pats need to use the playbook from that fog game where they ran 60 times. And also bench their top two backs.
I think Sidy Sow's true talent is as a battering ram type of RB. He should start and get 30 carries at least.
 

luckiestman

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Bearer of bad news and all, anyone trades up for these QBs should be fired on the spot.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Bearer of bad news and all, anyone trades up for these QBs should be fired on the spot.
You say this as if guys like Trubisky, Lance, Wilson - two of which were acquired after trade ups - don’t attract QB-desperate teams. I see no evidence to suggest that is going to change.
 
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Oct 12, 2023
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You say this as if guys like Trubisky, Lance, Wilson - two of which were acquired after trade ups - don’t attract QB-desperate teams. I see no evidence to suggest that is going to change.
There have been just as many, or more, QB prospects that desperate teams didn’t trade up for (including Mac Jones, Fields, Allen, Mahomes, Pickett etc)

Sanders and Ward aren’t especially great Qb prospects.

I think there would be offers in the unlikely event the Pats maintain the 1st pick but I can’t imagine anything like the Panthers/Bears deal.
 

Mystic Merlin

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There have been just as many, or more, QB prospects that desperate teams didn’t trade up for (including Mac Jones, Fields, Allen, Mahomes, Pickett etc)

Sanders and Ward aren’t especially great Qb prospects.

I think there would be offers in the unlikely event the Pats maintain the 1st pick but I can’t imagine anything like the Panthers/Bears deal.
I don’t think they see that offer in their proverbial inbox, I agree, but the idea the Raiders, Giants, etc won’t have any interest in getting up there to draft either Sanders and/or Ward I don’t buy.
 

lexrageorge

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There have been just as many, or more, QB prospects that desperate teams didn’t trade up for (including Mac Jones, Fields, Allen, Mahomes, Pickett etc)

Sanders and Ward aren’t especially great Qb prospects.

I think there would be offers in the unlikely event the Pats maintain the 1st pick but I can’t imagine anything like the Panthers/Bears deal.
In the cases of Jones and Fields, there were already three higher rated QB prospects in the same draft, one of which the 49'ers traded for. Josh Allen was the 3rd QB picked in his draft year, and the Bills traded up for him.

Pickett may be the closest comparison, but it's currently unclear where pre-draft rankings of this year's QB class will compare with 2022.
 

DJnVa

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Correct.

Remaining games impacting SOS (* 2x impact):
Week 17 - MIA-CLE*, DET-SF* (MNF)
Week 18 - NYG-PHI, CHI-GB, LAC-LV*, CLE-BAL, CIN-PIT

In order to slide to 5, (1) all of the following results must occur: NEP must beat BUF, JAX must lose to IND, HOU must beat TEN, PHI must beat NYG, CLE must lose to both MIA & BAL, SF must beat DET, CHI must beat GB, LAC must beat LV and CIN must beat PIT and (2) JAX must win a different tiebreaker versus NEP.

NEP/JAX common games (7): BUF, MIA, NYJ, HOU, IND, TEN, CHI
NEP other games (10): BUF, MIA, NYJ, JAX, ARI, SEA, LAR, SF, CIN, LAC (78-80 SOS as of Dec29 early games)
JAX other games (10): NEP, HOU, IND, TEN, GB, MIN, DET, PHI, LV, CLE (80-78 SOS as of Dec29 early games, plus GB-MIN)
Lions win over SF tomorrow guarantees top 4.
 

Caspir

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Bearer of bad news and all, anyone trades up for these QBs should be fired on the spot.
Not on the spot, but I suspect that someone trades up and gets fired within two years. Sanders is going to be a bust that also comes with the celebrity QB baggage. I don’t know enough about Mills to have an opinion.

I want Hunter or Tet. The rest is just noise.
 

Niastri

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Here’s a question, depending on who ends up at #2, do they pay anything to move up to #1?
I'm hoping the Patriots trade down from 1 to 2 to 7 to 14 to 22 and draft best available player with the 22nd and every other draft pick they get from trading down four times in the first round.

Hopefully they trade every veteran on a one year contract while they are at it.

I think 2026 is the next year they have a real shot at being good anyway. Maye in his third year could be an upper echelon QB by then.
 

Red Averages

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There have been just as many, or more, QB prospects that desperate teams didn’t trade up for (including Mac Jones, Fields, Allen, Mahomes, Pickett etc)

Sanders and Ward aren’t especially great Qb prospects.

I think there would be offers in the unlikely event the Pats maintain the 1st pick but I can’t imagine anything like the Panthers/Bears deal.
This post is just horrific and I wish you’d get some
Better facts before spreading misinformation.

Mac Jones: Was the 5th QB drafted in 2021, going 15th. I don’t know how this is comparable to a top two pick. In fact in this same draft the first two teams (Jags and Jets) desperately needed QBs and didn’t trade out. That led to a team deploying a ton of draft capital (#12 pick, 1st and 3rd rounder in the year after draft and another 1st two years a later. To move up to #3. For a QB with no track record). That leads to QB #4 that year…

Justin Fields: the bears DID trade up for him. And again that’s the 4th QB. The bears traded from 20 up to 11 and gave up their 1st and 4th rounders for the year after. And again that’s a mid first round trade.

Josh Allen: The Bills DID trade up from 12 to 7 to get Allen, another unproven speculative QB with a bunch of social media issues popping up. They still gave up two 2nd rounders in that draft.

Mahomes: the Chiefs DID trade up. From 27th pick to 10th, adding their 3rd round pick and 1st rounder the year after. And again this is not a top 2 pick.

Kenny Pickett: Drafted 22nd overall. How is this a comp?

And then the classic “etc” when you can’t think of other examples. So the majority of your examples were QBs who teams traded up for - with significant hauls - and the two that didn’t were the 5th QB off the board at 15 and a guy drafted in the 20s.
 

nighthob

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There have been just as many, or more, QB prospects that desperate teams didn’t trade up for (including Mac Jones, Fields, Allen, Mahomes, Pickett etc)
The Bears traded up for Fields, the Bills for Allen, and the Chiefs for Mahomes. So you’re wrong in three out of five examples. It’s true that McLosin’ and Pickett just got drafted in the mid first, but it’s because everyone knew that they sucked. They were also much worse prospects than Sanders or Ward are.
 

Red Averages

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The Bears traded up for Fields, the Bills for Allen, and the Chiefs for Mahomes. So you’re wrong in three out of five examples. It’s true that McLosin’ and Pickett just got drafted in the mid first, but it’s because everyone knew that they sucked. They were also much worse prospects than Sanders or Ward are.
Plus the best example from the 2021 draft that he used two examples for was the #3 pick, not the mid teens ones. And Trey Lance, a total project QB, went for 3 firsts. It would have been more useful to use Draft Day trade analysis than the fake information disguised as real life into here.
 

nighthob

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Plus the best example from the 2021 draft that he used two examples for was the #3 pick, not the mid teens ones. And Trey Lance, a total project QB, went for 3 firsts. It would have been more useful to use Draft Day trade analysis than the fake information disguised as real life into here.
Yeah, teams overvalue QBs, but for the essential reason that it’s the one spot on the roster where a single player makes a huge difference. I mean, yeah, people rarely spend capital on the Mac Joneses of the world, but it’s because everyone knew that he was a backup QB prospect at best.