lol Gabriel has got the ducks 12-0 this year ranked 1 in the nation his arm stats have him #1 all time in college in several categories.he is a heisman finalist and the ducks are favorites to win the national championship this year how the hell does anyone even think to compare him to Bailey zappe lol
Draft Pick Watch
- Thread starter tims4wins
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Nothing you said does anything to address the post you quoted. Heck, you didn’t even start with a version of “I don’t think arm strength matters” (a painfully naive assertion) or “here are velocity stats from some of Gabriel’s throws showing he doesn’t have a noodle arm relative to successful QB’s,” or even better, a “here is a list of successful NFL QB’s who has below average velocity.” I would assume none of these hypothetical examples exist, but if they did, they would actually address the quoted post beyond using ‘LULZ’ as bottles quote tags.
A deadly combination of Skip Bayless and Nick Wright indeed.
Here’s a place to start: combine velocity readings for the past handful of years. Have at it:
https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/
bradys arm velocity wasnt much to talk about when he won 3 super bowls either.what he had going for him was intangibles.his mental toughness,and the fact that he simply refused to lose.kind like describing dillon gabriel
Brady was also a 6th rd pick. Likely around the same range Gabriel will be drafted.
This came up in some other thread a while ago. Brady had some serious zip on his passes from his first pro game. Maybe he made big strides his rookie year, but maybe they just didn’t have the tools to objectively measure arm strength back then?
edit: not to turn another thread in bbtl into a brady circle jerk but look at these highlights almost all these throws are ropes and who couldn’t use some vintage brady highlights
View: https://youtu.be/lP6kmwR5OJ8?si=ATgkgiRM2UzGDf2U
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Now do all the successful QBs over the same 50 years who are much taller, and all the unsuccessful QBs who were that short or just never drafted for being that short.
For those of you rooting for the Pats draft position to improve (get closer to 1-1), these are key results to root for this weekend in terms of SOS position (obviously, we also want Raiders and/or Giants to lose):
- Jags over Jets (both are 3-win teams)
- Texans over Dolphins
- Broncos over Colts
- Bucs over Chargers
- Lions over Bills (this one is the most important result)
- Packers over Seahawks
- Vikings over Bears
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this is such a weird way to try to argue for Dillon. you have multiple different eras of football captured there and most of those guys are guys who should have been passed over for one reason or another relative to where they were picked.
Brees and (to a lesser extent) Wilson are clear examples short QB’s can have NFL success. Flutie was in a totally different era and a career backup quality guy in the NFL, with some CFL success and one or two decent years in the pros. If I’m drafting a QB reasonably high, I’m not aiming for Flutie.
Mayfield is a weird one, clearly should have been passed over in favor of Josh Allen. He missed a lot of time due to injuries (possibly related to his small frame), is 2 inches (at least) taller than Gabriel and took 4 teams before he figured things out to be a consistently solid not great QB. He’s not a bust but he’s also nowhere near what Cleveland hoped for at 1 overall
Vick is absurd to put in any conversation because of his unique skills but as a passer, his height did limit him and he was nothing special. also taller than Gabriel (setting aside the massive differences in athleticism)
Murray is kind of the non-journeyman equivalent of Mayfield. A solid enough starter but has missed a lot of time with injuries (both major and minor) and purely from a passing perspective, his height limits him to some degree.
your argument here shouldn’t be “lol look at these 6-7 guys over 50 years, a lot of whom weren’t actually great starters”. It should be “the game has changed a lot in the last 20 years and the proliferation of guys who succeed out of structure, and the rules changes, has made the environment more conducive for smaller QB’s to succeed”
I think there’s an argument that today’s NFL is a lot easier for a short QB to succeed in than 20,30 or 50 years ago. But using Flutie or Vick as comps is just insanely bad logic.
lastly, if my job was taking QB’s, you can bet that I would “pass on lol” Bryce Young in favor of the bigger, stronger, CJ Stroud. I can’t believe we’re at a point where Bryce Young is being used as an example of NFL success. If you told me Dillon Gabriel was going to be exactly what Bryce Young has been to date, it’s a hard pass from me until the 6th or 7th round or something. He’s looked ok the last few weeks, and has a lot of talent (talent I don’t think Gabriel has regardless of height) but it’s crazy to use him as proof short QBs can succeed
I do think risk aversion is a major reason guys with abnormal size or speed profiles get passed over but I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing.
there are very real limitations to being undersized (or slow) at your given position. The odds of overcoming those limitations on top of just the general likelihood of failing (as most prospects do regardless) makes it a bad investment
at just about any position you can find a few outliers who bucked the trend and overcame the odds to find success while being small or slow but it doesn’t make the “filtering” process any less legitimate. We know most undersized guys fail, we know most right sized guys fail, why take an extra risk when you’re already likely to fail?
I’d also say that short QB’s, just like slow QB’s (etc) are scheme limited. It’s hard to have a small guy as your backup or “develop for the future” type because they’re not really plug and play. Russell Wilson is probably the gold standard for what a small mobile but not freaky athlete should aim for at QB. But Russ needed very specific conditions on offense to succeed. Most coaches/playcallers don’t want a guy who needs such a specific set up and I don’t know that most OC’s would want to redesign their schemes to accommodate an abnormally small QB unless that guy is the clear cut franchise guy from day 1 a la Murray.
I know Troy Brown was great, but boy, did those highlights ever reinforce that.
Listen Dillon, I'm glad you're here posting on a Sox message board, that's cool and all, but stop comparing yourself to Brady (unless you're saying you're a 6th rounder too, which would match what others are saying) and Vick and Jurgenson.
College stats don't translate to NFL success.
that sir was a great post. obviously i dont agree with much of it but hey maybe we all might possibly learn something from each others opinions.......well done
I just remembered that the Pats own the Falcons 3rd round pick (from the Judon trade) so we should all be hoping the Falcons crap the bed over these last few weeks.
I don’t think I really ever noticed it but the consistency in his footwork during his drop back is amazingly consistent. It’s nearly identical every normal drop back 5-7 step drop. Last step is an extended step his his back foot, followed by a short step forward and firing the ball or resetting moving forward.
Raiders making their best effort to lose out. Going to be tough for the Pats to get higher than #3.
https://www.nfl.com/news/raiders-pass-rusher-maxx-crosby-to-meet-with-foot-ankle-specialist-on-monday
The Raiders aren't going to risk NOT getting a QB, so even if they're #1 overall, that doesn't really affect us. No?
Well it would preclude the Pats from trading down with the Raiders to accumulate more assets.
Word is the Raiders REALLY want Sanders, and Deion would like him to go there... if they fall out of the top 2 it would be the most likely chance the Patriots have to turn their pick into a strong package.
There’s a small possibility the Raiders could look to pair Sanders and Hunter and make a godfather offer for 3.
For the Patriots, I’d accept a historically poor offer for #2 or #3 if it came from, say, #6 and I knew they were trading up for a QB. I’d be thrilled with a 2nd round pick and to be honest would accept even a 3rd. Again, assuming the trade down was only a couple spots and I was confident in their targeting a QB. The Patriots have so many needs and if they get a top tier prospect, getting another pick would be nice for a team looking to add talent.
To your point, if they can negotiate a bigger offer as part of a trade down that would be great too.
bailey zappe 53mph...drew willy 58 mph who tf is drew willy?jacoby brisset 56 mph...jalen hurts 49 mph....cj stroud 56 mph...mahomes 55 mph....jordan love 53 mph....baker mayfield 60mph....josh allen 62mph....bo nix 58 mph....justin herbert 54 mph...jimmy g 56mph...dak prescott 54 mph.....marcus mariota 56 mph....ryan mallet 58mph.....lamar jackson 49 mph....russel wilson 55 mph.....joe milton 62 mph.....these are the combine numbers for various quarterbacks from recent history.zappe was one mph behind justin herbert.lamar jackson is 13 mph behind josh allen.jacoby brissett has a stronger arm than mahomes....lamar jackson....justin herbert...dak prescott..jalen hurts and russel wilson? im pretty sure these numbers that you are using to rate a quarterbacks arm strength are skewed,flawed and have absolutely no relevance in drafting a top flight quarterback.bo-nix by the way threw 58 mph at the combine ...thats pretty much top tier in my estimation.perhaps you should watch more skip bayless and nick wright then maybe you too could pick the right criteria in selecting a rookie quarterback.
Unfortunately, we don't seem to be getting much help from the other terrible teams. Panthers, Titans, and Jags all lost 'winnable' games, although one was against the Jets - so that helps. Giants didn't upset Baltimore, but that was of course not bloody likely.
Vegas - Atlanta is the big marquee matchup tomorrow night
NYG have Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia to close the season. They could certainly lose out, but they are all winnable games if Philly is in a situation with nothing to play for. But, that game is in Philadelphia - so no matter what, they are likely to be significant underdogs.
LV has Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the Chargers to close out (after tomorrow). So, they certainly have a chance to win another game but we're running out of time.
Vegas - Atlanta is the big marquee matchup tomorrow night
NYG have Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia to close the season. They could certainly lose out, but they are all winnable games if Philly is in a situation with nothing to play for. But, that game is in Philadelphia - so no matter what, they are likely to be significant underdogs.
LV has Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the Chargers to close out (after tomorrow). So, they certainly have a chance to win another game but we're running out of time.
Not like this matters a ton, but Levis and Jameis having super bad games today almost guarantees they'll be looking to upgrade the position. They probably were before, but a bit more cement was poured into that foundation.
This likely only helps if we can get ahead of one or both of Vegas/GIants. Otherwise, they grab the two QBs and then it won't matter.
I'm holding out hope a 3rd QB shakes loose as a top guy. Every year around the combine we see smoke around a few new prospects and QB needy teams talk themselves into reaching for s guy.
Travis Hunter could generate some interest if people are buying the 2 way potential. Wouldn’t get you a QB haul but maybe could squeeze some extra picks out of someone. But I actually really like him and would prefer we should scoop him up. The thought of Hunter/Gonzo on the outside is very intriguing to me.
So it's not looking like the Bills will have anything to play for in week 18. The Steelers, Ravens, and Texans will be at least 2 games behind them heading in to week 17. There is still a chance KC loses a game (vs. HOU, @ PIT) to bring the Bills within a game and give them a shot at the one seed, but I'm not betting on it.
That said, I still doubt the Pats would beat a backup Bills team.
That said, I still doubt the Pats would beat a backup Bills team.
KC has the weird schedule, it's Saturday/Wednesday. I guess we'll see what news comes out regarding Mahomes' ankle but I don't see anyway he plays both of those games.
Not ideal. The least Mayo can do for that game is actually tank it. At least the Bills won't gain anything by losing. This could all change if Mahomes actually misses a week or two.
Yup. Barring some really unexpected outcomes the next couple weeks, my primary hope is that whichever pick the Pats land, they trade down to the point they can still add the Arizona WR or one of the LSU/UT linemen with it being less of an overdraft. Take the best value they can get in return.
I'd think the base case is that KC loses to Hou and Pit without Mahomes. Either way, a loss vs Hou and then a chance to lose either @ Pit or @ Den means Buf has to play it out.
Has anyone done the math on where the Pats SoS is likely to fall after the remaining games? Are we going to slide back meaningfully? I guess the good news is the Jags still play the Raiders and Titans, so likely to shake another few teams down organically.
The tankathon SOS uses all 17 opponents. The Pats are still in the driver's seat from that perspective.
PFN has done the math. Go here and plug in a W or L: Free NFL Playoff Predictor 2024-2025
Jax is somewhat close to us on SoS but the play the Raiders next week--if they win, that's 4 wins. If they lose, it bumps the Pats up to #2. Then Jax plays Tennessee. So Mac Jones has a lot of pull with our draft slot.
You may be correct that watching them might help -- but I don't think you are right in the way you think you are. For example, one could "learn something about how to draft receivers" by having watched N'Keal Harry play. Or "learn about drafting offensive tackles" by watching Tony Mandarich. As for quarterbacks, "lets check out Ryan Leaf."
Yeah, a Raiders win drops them from #2 to #7--they become the "best" 3-win team in terms of SoS.
You'd hope they could win one of their next 4: Tonight at home vs Atl (seems unlikely), next week at home vs the Mac Jones Jags (-1 pt favorites as of now), then @ the Derek Carr less Saints, then at the Chargers who may be resting everyone before the playoffs (hopefully).