Draft Pick Watch

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,212
Yeah, agree. Not even sure how you'd get to 3. Some people might have Hunter a full tier up I guess,
I’ve been a Michigan fan for 20+ years and Graham is the best player I’ve ever seen there. Really high floor IMO and it’s hard to find guys who stuff the run and push the pocket back…
 

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I keep seeing this--if everyone knows he "probably" won't play both ways in the NFL, then his top of the 1st round draft value doesn't factor that in.
A lot of people still have him there on the "well you'll get something extra out of him"... but I do think the best think he's just a really good CB and this draft is weak at the top.
My understanding is Hunter is neither the best WR (Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan) nor the best CB (Michigan's Will Johnson) in the draft, so you have to wonder why a team wouldn't prefer to draft either of those guys over him---unless you really think you can play him both ways. Which I guess would mean he goes to all the defensive meetings, but has a limited package of plays on the offense.
 

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,212
My understanding is Hunter is neither the best WR (Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan) the best CB (Michigan's Will Johnson) in the draft, so you have to wonder why a team wouldn't prefer to draft either of those guys over him---unless you really think you can play him both ways. Which I guess would mean he goes to all the defensive meetings, but has a limited package of plays on the offense.
He’s such an exciting athlete, but that concerns me too. Pats have so many holes and need bona fide players
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
38,999
My understanding is Hunter is neither the best WR (Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan) nor the best CB (Michigan's Will Johnson) in the draft, so you have to wonder why a team wouldn't prefer to draft either of those guys over him---unless you really think you can play him both ways. Which I guess would mean he goes to all the defensive meetings, but has a limited package of plays on the offense.
I know a lot of people think he's better than Johnson.
 

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I’ve been a Michigan fan for 20+ years and Graham is the best player I’ve ever seen there. Really high floor IMO and it’s hard to find guys who stuff the run and push the pocket back…
It could very well be that one of the teams that miss out on a QB or one of the more ballyhooed players are going to take him and it will be like when Aaron Donald fell to the Rams.
 

Tim Salmon

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 24, 2005
3,523
My understanding is Hunter is neither the best WR (Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan) nor the best CB (Michigan's Will Johnson) in the draft, so you have to wonder why a team wouldn't prefer to draft either of those guys over him---unless you really think you can play him both ways. Which I guess would mean he goes to all the defensive meetings, but has a limited package of plays on the offense.
I think some of the value is not necessarily that he'll play both sides of the ball at the same time (e.g., full-time CB plus gadget receiver on offense), but also that he gives a team two bites at the apple to see if if he can be elite at either one. Kind of like drafting Tim Tebow to be a QB with fallback TE or FB potential, except if Tebow were actually good.
 
Oct 12, 2023
1,534
Graham would be a good replacement for Barmore (assuming he retires)

fully expect Wolf to run it back with the same strategy at WR and OL. Dumpster dive and hope for internal improvements so Graham probably makes the most sense if he doesn’t go top 3. McMillan, Banks, Campbell don’t seem worth it at 4

if Graham goes top 3, Carter would be the next guy up Id think.
 

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,212
Top 4 players on my board right now are (in no particular order) Travis Hunter, Will Johnson, Mason Graham and Abdul Carter
Agree and if a qb or two goes at the top, we can have our pick

The loss today was obviously whatever we could have traded for…the pick itself is still very appealing imo
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 13, 2013
656
NYJ also lose & help us with position - 1 less team in the 4-13 range. Shitty day for us with the pick, but could've been worse.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Yes, that's what I meant. My bad!

So, 3 teams finish 4-13.

For the 1st 3 rounds, as things stand now:

1.4 (4)
2.7 (38)
3.5 (69, nice)
3.13 (77, no affect on our record - this is ATL's original pick)
If they had lost, they’d have been looking at 1, 36, 66, 77.

By the Jimmy Johnson value chart, that equates to a cumulative loss worth 1235 points, roughly the 11th pick overall.

By the Rich Hill (drafted) chart, it’s worth the equivalent of the 3rd pick overall.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
41,140
Hingham, MA
If they had lost, they’d have been looking at 1, 36, 66, 77.

By the Jimmy Johnson value chart, that equates to a cumulative loss worth 1235 points, roughly the 11th pick overall.

By the Rich Hill (drafted) chart, it’s worth the equivalent of the 3rd pick overall.
And that doesn’t include any value they may have picked up by trading down
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
38,999
Theoretically that’s baked in. But I’m with you.
Truly a catastrophic loss.
Probably isn't entirely because a trade to #1 would be for a QB and all the charts agree that QB premium is real and you add a certain percentage.
 

steveluck7

Member
SoSH Member
May 10, 2007
4,146
Burrillville, RI
Probably isn't entirely because a trade to #1 would be for a QB and all the charts agree that QB premium is real and you add a certain percentage.
But it very much depends on who is trading up and from where they’re trading. If it’s a 2 qb draft and the team picking 3rd wants the QB, the return from them is gonna look a lot less like a “haul” than if the team at 8 wants to move up.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
38,999
But it very much depends on who is trading up and from where they’re trading. If it’s a 2 qb draft and the team picking 3rd wants the QB, the return from them is gonna look a lot less like a “haul” than if the team at 8 wants to move up.
Sure, just saying it will be above chart value.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
But it very much depends on who is trading up and from where they’re trading. If it’s a 2 qb draft and the team picking 3rd wants the QB, the return from them is gonna look a lot less like a “haul” than if the team at 8 wants to move up.
My dream was trading down from #1 to #3 or #4 and then also moving down to the bottom of the top 10 and picking up future and current picks along with one of the few truly top talents in a weak draft.

Crushed.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
56,055
My dream was trading down from #1 to #3 or #4 and then also moving down to the bottom of the top 10 and picking up future and current picks along with one of the few truly top talents in a weak draft.

Crushed.
Well, you might still be able to trade down from #4.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
12,793
Well, you might still be able to trade down from #4.
I don’t think anyone is doubting that? You’d get more if you’d traded from 1. I am at the point where there’s a group of posters that are just gaslighting.

We all get you can trade down from 4. It’s not the value that you would get from trading down from 1
 
Oct 12, 2023
1,534
I’m sure you could theoretically trade down from any spot. It’s just a matter of whether or not you get an offer worth taking. And at 4, it’s unlikely anyone is going to give up a big package of picks for that spot.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
6,637
After listening to the Bill Simmons-Cousin Sal pod, I now want a Jack Shit #25 jersey just to memorialize the player we got "trading down" from 1 to 4. Jack is a linebacker prospect but unfortunately the scouting report says he disappears during games.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
9,728
I’m not terribly excited about trading down from #4. Maybe there’s a team that sees a stud DL as their final piece that would give up a lot to pick there, but we could also use that, too. If we could turn #4 into two of the high ceiling, low floor OTs that will likely get picked towards the end of the first that would be interesting, but obviously quite risky,
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,601
Yes, that's what I meant. My bad!

So, 3 teams finish 4-13.

For the 1st 3 rounds, as things stand now:

1.4 (4)
2.7 (38)
3.5 (69, nice)
3.13 (77, no affect on our record - this is ATL's original pick)
Much worse than what they could have had, but let’s also be honest - they really ought to be able to draft some very, very good players with those four draft slots.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
28,964
Unreal America
Much worse than what they could have had, but let’s also be honest - they really ought to be able to draft some very, very good players with those four draft slots.
Agreed. What happened, happened. Now they need to get on with rebuilding the piss poor talent on this team. 4 picks in the top 77 should be a good start... as long as we don't replicate last year's round 2 and 3 disaster.
 

yecul

appreciates irony very much
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2001
19,237
Fixing the process is the most critical piece. Accumulating draft capital that you then waste is not a winning formula. Dropping out of the #1 pick was a huge negative, obviously, but making successful picks wherever they fall is most critical. Trading down from 4 but remaining in the ~top 10 will certainly be explored.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,771
Isle of Plum
After listening to the Bill Simmons-Cousin Sal pod, I now want a Jack Shit #25 jersey just to memorialize the player we got "trading down" from 1 to 4. Jack is a linebacker prospect but unfortunately the scouting report says he disappears during games.
That’s awesome! Can’t wait to listen
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,601
Agreed. What happened, happened. Now they need to get on with rebuilding the piss poor talent on this team. 4 picks in the top 77 should be a good start... as long as we don't replicate last year's round 2 and 3 disaster.
Yep. Do well in the draft. Use their enormous cap space to get the right FA additions. Make a couple of trades if you need to. And, of course, hire the right HC.

It’s a lot on the to do list but it can be done successfully, I believe.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
28,964
Unreal America
Yep. Do well in the draft. Use their enormous cap space to get the right FA additions. Make a couple of trades if you need to. And, of course, hire the right HC.

It’s a lot on the to do list but it can be done successfully, I believe.
Absolutely can be done successfully. Just need the right people in place to execute it. We both go back to the dark days of 1989-1992. Four seasons after that rock bottom we were in the Super Bowl. Anything is possible in the NFL with the right people in charge.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
15,150
Boulder, CO
GAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Just had to get that off my chest, again.

Gonna do it a lot over the next three months I think.
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,622
I’m not terribly excited about trading down from #4. Maybe there’s a team that sees a stud DL as their final piece that would give up a lot to pick there, but we could also use that, too. If we could turn #4 into two of the high ceiling, low floor OTs that will likely get picked towards the end of the first that would be interesting, but obviously quite risky,
I don't know what this says about me and/or the Pats, but my mind auto-filled "hurt" at the end of the first line, and I was legit surprised when I reread your post and saw the bolded.
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,601
Absolutely can be done successfully. Just need the right people in place to execute it. We both go back to the dark days of 1989-1992. Four seasons after that rock bottom we were in the Super Bowl. Anything is possible in the NFL with the right people in charge.
I’ve already flipped the switch from anger at losing the #1 pick to excitement and anticipation over how this organization can reconstitute itself in a relatively short period of time.

They have a clean slate at HC and the QB of the future. Plus it looks like they may have a totally viable #2 QB in Milton.

LFG
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,523
GAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Just had to get that off my chest, again.

Gonna do it a lot over the next three months I think.
Yep. I feel sick thinking about yesterday and likely will for a long time. I doubt they were getting the Trey Lance haul, but I think it’s fair to expect they were looking at probably a high 2 this year and next at minimum to move back 2-3 spots and still have their choice of highest rated player in the draft. Probably enough capital to have come away with the best defensive player on the board and a fringe first round WR or lineman. Imagine getting Carter or Hunter then still being able to move up for Egbuka? For a team in desperate need of a talent infusion it’s a catastrophic turn.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,771
Isle of Plum
I’ve already flipped the switch from anger at losing the #1 pick to excitement and anticipation over how this organization can reconstitute itself in a relatively short period of time.

They have a clean slate at HC and the QB of the future. Plus it looks like they may have a totally viable #2 QB in Milton.

LFG
This is great, I’m really still trying to work through it.

Knowing that tackle isn’t a strength of this draft was countered by offering hope that we could grab an elite guy at the top, drop down and still get a servicable tackle in the first round with the number one pick capital.

Still gonna get a guy, but the fast-forward I had projected onto our rebuild ain’t happening.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
9,728
What's really frustrating is that it was such a pointless win, and I'm not talking about the overall season record. If they had won the week before against LA, and lost to the Bills - that would have put them in the same place re: the standings. But, at least a win against LA would have been against a real team that was trying to win. The Buffalo game was such a joke, winning was almost an embarassment. Punting from the 35?!?!?