Doogie does defense, the Sam Hauser thread
- Thread starter chilidawg
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Is there a better non-rookie deal in the league than Hauser at $2.1M? What a steal by Brad.
It's probably Brunson, or one of the max guys. Getting an 8th man for $2M is nice, getting a very good starter for $20M is nice....
but the higher up the player list you go the quicker value increses.
If we eliminate max and rookie it's Brunson though, he made under $25M and was a top 5 MVP candidate and finished as the first man out of 1st team all-NBA.
I like Sam as much as the next guy, but he averaged 5.4 ppg in the playoffs (after 9 ppg in the regular season). I know that metric may not be as sophisticated as DARKO or LEBRON or RAPTOR, but I’d be hard pressed to label his playoff run as “impressive,” much less “very impressive.”
His minutes per game also went from 22 to 15, which is typical for a bench player in the playoffs. Hard to score from the bench. Despite reduced minutes, Hauser did score 8 ppg against the Heat and Mavs, and did play credible defense in the Finals. His ppg average is hurt by his struggles against Indy.
Bottom line is that he will have leverage in any contract negotiations.
I thought he was really good. He played great defense throughout, made some hustle plays, and did his usual hitting threes thing.
1-14 from 3 against the Pacers, but 26-57 in the other 3 series, for 45.6%. That's pretty great in the playoffs.
Sam seems to me that he's in his sweet spot role wise with the C's. If he signs elsewhere to get a bigger role I think he gets exposed.
Agree he is in a great situation, assuming the Celtics can be competitive on the $. But aside from getting more minutes on a worse team, I think Sam's role is what it is.
He will probably get fewer open shots on a team without as much talent, but in general I don't think any team would expect him to do anything other than what he is doing. If someone signs him expecting him to be anything other than a spot up shooter with surprisingly solid D, they probably will not be happy with the result.
If Boston signs Hauser in the $17-20 million a year range, what would be the total additional cost per season, instead of just moving Baylor into the designated shooter bench role? $50 million the first season, adding salary difference and penalties? $70 million?
Define exposed? He would look worse on a team like Dallas, but he would look godly on the Nuggets or 76ers.
In addition to his minutes dipping as noted above, the pace slows way down in the playoffs. Boston went from averaging 97.3 possessions to 91.9, and all told Hauser went from averaging 20.2 points per 100 to 19.0 points per 100, basically no difference at all.
Food for thought: Grant Williams experienced an almost identical dip in ppg last year (8.1 in the regular season, 5.1 in the playoffs), then signed a 4/54 contract.
Not crazy in the least. I think we got an early glimpse of future Tatum in these playoffs.
Point Center JT, in high-leverage situations, is going to turn into a thing over the rest of his career. His uniqueness (+increasing size/muscle) will eventually win him an MVP, not just TOP3 upside anymore, once voters understand his overall impact.
Brad/Zarren will use the Center position to add multiple cheap contracts (X, Lukes, Queta types) mostly to absorb the punishment of the regular season.
Meanwhile, Brad will keep unearthing versatile WINGs. Hauser is very worth retaining as long as possible, extremely switchy defensively. Expect they will get Hauser to return on a very team-friendly extension.
I'm guessing a healthy KP will be the first moved out of the TOP5, maybe next Summer's business.
Assuming White extends, Horford leaves, everyone else stays and every other roster spot is filled with minimums, the difference between Hauser at 17M, or another player at the minimum instead, would be around 100M difference in salary+tax in year one.
I don't think that's going to happen.
A little hard to know how teams will view the growing cap, but Hauser is not likely to get $17 mil. This is like some of the speculation a year ago Grant would get $20 mil/year to me---a bit of an overreach on what the market has shown.
Luke Kennard just had his $14.7 mil option declined; that's probably the high-water mark on what Hauser might think about and if I were guessing he's more toward 4/$50 or something like that.
But, as always, I could be wrong....
Luke Kennard just had his $14.7 mil option declined; that's probably the high-water mark on what Hauser might think about and if I were guessing he's more toward 4/$50 or something like that.
But, as always, I could be wrong....
I get the perpetual injury concern with KP, but I feel like people are glossing over how important he is to this team's upside. We did get pretty lucky with opponent injuries and avoiding the best teams in the West.
Tatum and Jaylen are still evolving and this past year will be a huge confidence boost, but KP might still be the ticket to a dynasty vs a 1 year title team.
I don't think people are glossing over it: he's really good. The problem is that if he costs you someone like Hauser, then you're going into this extreme lottery ticket mode, where you're just hoping he stays healthy every spring.
A lot of this probably resolves itself this season: you extend Hauser at any reasonable price, since he's a positive trade asset. You go through the 2025 playoff run. Then you evaluate:
- did KP stay healthy? If he did, that makes you more willing to go crazy on tax for one wild 2025-26 season
- how much did Hauser contribute? Did he take a step up, or are there ways to replace him?
With the chance to threepeat, ownership might be ok with writing a huge penalty check. If Baylor can cover Hauser’s role, Boston would have gotten another value season out of Sam, while setting him up for a payday as a two time champ. Assuming Al is done this season, Boston will have to dump some money into a number two big. Hauser at market salary might not be the best option.
In an ideal world, Al can be effective for two more seasons, Hauser settles on $10-12 million on a four year deal, and Wyc fires up the checkbook throughout the Jays’ prime. I think the Celtics will be fine regardless of Hauser staying or leaving.
In an ideal world, Al can be effective for two more seasons, Hauser settles on $10-12 million on a four year deal, and Wyc fires up the checkbook throughout the Jays’ prime. I think the Celtics will be fine regardless of Hauser staying or leaving.
Unless KP's leg falls off, I think I would rather have KP and Scheierman/random shooter X than keep Hauser + try to find someone to replace KP.
I get the risk, but the reward with KP is really significant. Hauser is a nice 7th/8th man and I hope he stays, but it's much less likely that he is the difference between another title compared to KP.
Agree that as long as you sign Hauser to something reasonable, he is a positive asset and you can reassess after the year. But I strongly lean toward KP if it becomes a choice between the 2 and KP is at all functional.
Your money sounds fair, just think Glushon will want a 2+1 extension so he can head to UFA at 29
I like KP a lot, calling him their 2nd most important player this season (which was wrong in retrospect)
A mildly successful Baylor is here no matter what.
If Brad is told to avoid absurd tax penalties for 2025-26, which group would you rather have (est. salaries):
GROUP A:
Horford (12M) + Sam Hauser (12M) + Xavier Tillman (5M) + PP (7M)
VS.
GROUP B:
KP (30M) + 3 Minimums (7M)
I'm going GROUP A, since Horford or X or Tatum can be their 5-wide Center in the playoffs by then.
Good question, I'm glad we can keep our options open for now.
So many unknowns right now compared to a year from now:
- KP health
- Can Al play much at age 40?
- Is Baylor a decent Hauser replacement?
- Whats the vet min market look like?
- How strict is Wyc on the tax #? (PP at 7M is going to be a deal breaker for him?)
- Are the Celtics coming off a repeat title and going for 3 in a row?
Overall, if KP has a remotely healthy year, I'd prefer to keep him and deal with the rest of the bench as necessary. If that means we lose a 40 year old Al, Hauser, and Tillman, so be it. I have a feeling we can keep PP at that # or make a reasonable trade.
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If they extend Sam, they'll have until Feb. 2026 trade deadline to "let it sort itself out".
Brad owning their draft stock will let him optimize their roster for the 2026 playoffs. Something many fail to recognize when these teams include every last pick into a Summer deal. You want pick flexibility when several teams are throwing in the towel at the deadline.
I really hope that you're right. For all of the talk about how 3 guys aren't terribly hard to find, I'd love to keep the one that plays credible defense and already fits the team (assuming that the cost is reasonable).
Exactly. This is why Brad drafted Scheierman. He probably is certain that this will be Hauser’s final year here.
I am not sure if you posted this earlier but right after the Finals, John Hollinger (at least that's who I remember it being) wrote in an article that he was hearing from multiple places that White and Hauser were definitely getting extensions.
Until I hear rumors to the contrary, I am operating under the assumption that Hauser will stay.
Also, if they have to cut salary after signing Sam, I think PP is the obvious person to get rid of. I think that's the easiest position to fill
I also think he will extend and I’m using this Globe article as the reason for my optimism.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/06/29/sports/sam-hauser-celtics-contract-option/?event=event12
And the Celtics summer of love rolls on.
It's amazing to me that these guys do bet on themselves. Maybe Miami had no intention/illusions of being able to extend Max Strus, but he was making less than $2 million/year in his last year with Miami, and then went into free agency where he obviously cashed in to get his 4 year, $62 million deal.
Before his last year with Miami, he had made just $2 million in his total career. So, he risked playing that season and potentially suffering a down year or a significant injury to cash in (which he did). Again, maybe Miami was never going to re-sign him, just seems like amazingly risky.
Before his last year with Miami, he had made just $2 million in his total career. So, he risked playing that season and potentially suffering a down year or a significant injury to cash in (which he did). Again, maybe Miami was never going to re-sign him, just seems like amazingly risky.
I wouldn't be surprised if Hauser signs an extension.
In that example, I meant that I don't think a Hauser extension would start as high as 17M, and that if he extends that they would stay that deep into the tax.
They'll move someone out by the end of 2026 to duck taxes.
Resigning Hauser is the equivalent of killing Carlo at the end of the Godfather. Not strictly necessary right now but if you're settling all family business, let's just get it done.
Hilarious.
Brad should ink Justise Winslow to the Maine Celtics, for good measure. He's been in Toronto's G-League team the last year.
It is very possible, maybe even likely, that Strus' team took out an insurance policy against an injury that would cost him his perceived market value the following summer.
Thanks for posting that interview Hoganbaynes. Can you imagine how good JB and JT would be at 2 on 2 basketball?
I didn't realize Sam blew chow during the parade
nice that the pregnant wife was quickly pulling cold beer cans out of the cooler... a keeper for sure
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FPZ7fIzKg1Y
Oh baby, a tradeable contract eventually, too.
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1815053642606444631?
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1815053642606444631?
Yep. Brad knocks the cover off the ball again. Doubt he gets traded since he's starting caliber WING on an absurdly cheap contract. Let's them keep the JAYs
I'm not sure how many teams would be thrilled with Hauser starting on the wing, though he is definitely a great bench option/top 8 guy to have on the roster.
A year from now someone almost has to get traded.... if not, paying Hauser 10M a season would cost them something silly like 50M+. But I guess we will cross that bridge when we get there.
That's why I thought this would never happen. I am confident Brad and Zarren have a plan.
Unless Sam forgets how to shoot, he should be pretty valuable on that contract.
If Baylor pans out and can be a decent Sam replacement, Sam (or PP or KP or someone) is going to be on the move before 2025-2026.
Agreed, though he only makes 7M so it wouldn't make as much of a difference compared to sending off Hauser or (gasp) one of the big 5.
A lot will depend on how the team does this year and what injury issues crop up (particularly with KP).