Do we not have a thread for Sam? Looked good against the hapless Hornets.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzN0w8tfXyg
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzN0w8tfXyg
Doogie does defense, the Sam Hauser thread
- Thread starter chilidawg
- Start date
He did go All-ACC (first team) so he has at least some pedigree. And they have 3 total players (Brogdon, Jackson) like that on the bench
And yet Tatum only made 3rd team lol
And yet Tatum only made 3rd team lol
You have to be encouraged by what Hauser showed yesterday. Knocking down threes, nice cut for a layup, good lob to Kabangele, and some encouraging signs on defense. If this were Miami, he might start for a year, shoot 40% from three, and then get a $90 million contract.
I have two concerns about Hauser, and I have no idea if either is fair.
One, could he consistently hit shots when it's not garbage time? We have not seen him much when games were on the line. I get that it shouldn't matter to someone who looks like a pure shooter. But it might.
Two, would he get victimized/targeted on defense if he was part of the regular rotation?
Thoughts welcomed!
One, could he consistently hit shots when it's not garbage time? We have not seen him much when games were on the line. I get that it shouldn't matter to someone who looks like a pure shooter. But it might.
Two, would he get victimized/targeted on defense if he was part of the regular rotation?
Thoughts welcomed!
It was only a preseason game, but that was not garbage time yesterday. He heated up in the first half.
Both teams were playing pretty hard. Charlotte's bad defensively, but I saw Rozier literally hang his head after Hauser hit his fourth.
Nonetheless, these are all legitimate concerns. What we saw yesterday was still encouraging for a guy who projects to be a bench shooter.
Theres no reason to think he is any different from any other guy trying to break into the league in this regard.
Obviously, how he shoots when minutes count will determine whether he will be in the rotation or whether he will be on the back of the bench. His best game last year was the game against TOR that most the starters didn't attend; he played over 20 mostly meaningful minutes and went 2-3.
As for defense, my guess is that he holds up better than PP at least on straight line drivers but he has no chance on people who have a second move in a different direction. At that point, he'll need to be aware of where is help is and force guys back into the help. He will certainly be targeted when he's out there; at least he has some size to use. If he holds up, we and the Cs will be very happy.
That would be the same for any guy in this role. Nesmith as well, for example.
To me Hauser has a better track record than future HOFer Nesmith since he has shot the ball really well at a level higher than NCAA. He was a 40% shooter in the g-league.
My expectation is he will shoot well, but the second concern is abig deal for the Cs season IMHO. If HAuser is competent on D they have something there, bu the idea he could be unplayable due to D is the 64,000.
One could argue that preseason is not garbage time for a guy like Hauser. He plays bad and he's cut/buried, etc.
My sense is that fans place a bit too much weight on what happens in these exhibition games vs how teams look at them.
Hauser playing well doesn't hurt but its hard to see a poor game or two resulting in him being buried. Mazzulla & staff will probably give him some rotational run to start the season to see if he can credibly play some D (and actually drain shots against real D).
Given that the Cs are still short offense, especially with Galinari out, I bet we see Hauser get a bit of leash early on. We know he'll be in a Heat jersey eventually so maybe they get something out of him before he takes his talent to South Beach.
Hauser playing well doesn't hurt but its hard to see a poor game or two resulting in him being buried. Mazzulla & staff will probably give him some rotational run to start the season to see if he can credibly play some D (and actually drain shots against real D).
Given that the Cs are still short offense, especially with Galinari out, I bet we see Hauser get a bit of leash early on. We know he'll be in a Heat jersey eventually so maybe they get something out of him before he takes his talent to South Beach.
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Depth wise you’re right, but as an ACC bball fanboy I can’t let this go unanswered. ACC has better top end talent than the G league. As for defensive schemes and defensive talent, I’ll obviously take your word for it that shooting in the G league is tougher than the ACC.
In yesterday's tiny sample size...
In my eyes, he looked a lot less stiff than he did last season.
Looked a lot more decisive on where to be on both ends.
His shot is real.
He's still not going to be able to guard anyone.
With his shooting ability, and his size, the Celtics should be thrilled to have him as a fringe rotation guy at the minimum for the next 3 seasons if they pick up his option.
In my eyes, he looked a lot less stiff than he did last season.
Looked a lot more decisive on where to be on both ends.
His shot is real.
He's still not going to be able to guard anyone.
With his shooting ability, and his size, the Celtics should be thrilled to have him as a fringe rotation guy at the minimum for the next 3 seasons if they pick up his option.
He seems like a carbon copy of Duncan Robinson to me. Not very athletic 6'7 wing with good shooting mechanics and a quick release but will struggle to defend consistently. I think the shot is very real so he'll get some run, but how much will depend on how big a black hole he is on the defensive end.
Carbon copies are less than the original, messier, not as sharp.
MAybe LTP means Hauser is less precise and dumber than Robinson
Charlotte made a point to go after him with the quicker wings off the dribble four or five times in the second quarter. They came up empty all but one time, when one of the Charlotte players forces his way through Hauser’s chest for a layup.
It looked to me that he showed better ability moving his feet, positioning, and using his length to not get blown passed. He’s never going to out quick most NBA wings, but scheme, positioning, and effort will be his keys defensively.
Hauser playing with four good defenders should make him an acceptable 8-9th man type. He’s such a pure shooter from deep.
I’m looking forward to a second unit of Brogdon, Grant, PP, a big who can step out and hit threes (Kabengele, Kornet, etc), with one of the Jays. Total bomb squad.
There’s no reason to question his shot. He shot .439 over his college career, with no season below .400. Last year he shot over .400 in the G League. He can shoot and if he gets shots he will make them. I think there is an open question as to how dangerous his shot is in the NBA. He doesn’t have a lightning release like Duncan Robinson, but he isn’t slow either and he has good size, which makes an ultra quick release less important. If he’s shooting less due to close outs that will obviously impact his value, but the offensive downside is closer to Grant Williams last year (a dangerous corner spacer but one who isn’t going to beat you on his own unless your team is coached by Bud), not Nesmith. The upside is Duncan Robinson (the two years ago version).
Defensively, we’ll see. He’s not as quick as you’d like to see, but if he can continue to improve his positioning/angles/footwork he can make it hard to hunt him, which is really all he needs to do to stick as a useful bench player. He’ll need to be a real weapon on offense or an at least average defender to be a true rotation player, which is the hope, but solid bench wing who can shoot and defend enough to be playable would be a pretty good outcome too.
Cleaning the glass had Sam Hauser with 78 non-garbage minutes last year. In those minute he shot 8 of 19 from three: 3 of 6 from the corner and 5/13 non-corner. Tiny sample size, but he was willing to fire them up.
In 80 garbage time minutes, he shot 11 for 25 overall including 4-7 from the corner and 7-18 non-corner. So, roughly the same whether garbage or not.
In 80 garbage time minutes, he shot 11 for 25 overall including 4-7 from the corner and 7-18 non-corner. So, roughly the same whether garbage or not.
Hauser was consistently a great shooter in college, unlike Nesmith, who had that great partial season (a fluke?). I saw an analysis that I can't seem to find now, that broke down elite college shooters over the last couple of decades I think, and the author set some statistical cutoffs, leaving a couple of players at the top: Steph Curry and Sam Hauser. I think that with Hauser, Davison and Begarin, we've got some young guys to dream on. Losing a couple of first-round picks isn't going to make much difference at all (watch the first 2022 redraft put Davison in the first round).
I'm higher on Hauser than Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters, but all of preseason is pretty much garbage time. Hauser has height going for him and fits the role of spot shooter considerably better. He needs the ball far less often than those 2 and is a better pure shooter. Waters and Edwards were not only bad, they were miscast.
Hauser's probably going to give a lot back on defense but they have 15+2 roster spots. If anything, I think the C's have shied away from offense only players over the years. Sometimes, you need a guy who can hit a 3 as much as you need a guy to get a stop. Preferably, they have a few 1 sided players of both varieties at the end of the roster. If they could play both sides, they aren't at the end of the bench.
What's Hauser's absolute ceiling? Tall JJ Reddick? Kyle Korver? Not talking 5% outcome or likely outcome. Talking best possible. Maybe it's closer to Strus or Duncan? If Hauser works out, it's nice to have options like him and PP. You can never have enough shooting. They may not see big minutes in the playoffs but they probably will see situational minutes.
It would be a far cry from teams of the past where we are always crying for another shooter. It may be that even without Hauser. We can afford to have him at the end of the bench, though. In years past, there were too many end of bench spots going to developmental players, some of which had no real basketball skills. End of the bench isn't great shakes this year either but they are older players with basketball skills. I'd rather go with Brodric Thomas than the next Tremont Waters. When you are a competing team, you really shouldn't be wasting 5+ roster spots on projects.
I guess you could say that's what Hauser, Thomas, Kabangele are.. but not really. They may not be good, but they have considerably more basketball experience than Waters, Edwards, Langford, Nesmith did when they were employed here. This was a team trying to win basketball games. The regular season is long. They may not matter much come the playoffs, but they matter with seeding. Despite what any team says, it's always best to end up with a 1 or 2 seed than a 3 or 4. And nowadays, the 6th seed is a pretty big deal too. Every win matters. I'm guessing veteran bums are better than rookie scrubs. Obviously, if we have to rely on any of them in the playoffs, we are probably screwed barring some very positive and unexpected player development.
Even if Hauser develops into a 25 minute rotation player who averages 12/3/2 on .450/.420/.840 shooting, he's not going to be the difference maker come playoff time. He could win a few games for us over Aaron Nesmith in the regular season though. That has value.
Here's hoping he works. His skill set matches well with the role he's going to play so I like his chances more than the Smurfs. Still like him a bit less than I initially liked Nesmith and Langford but so did everyone else. That was based off projectability more than actual skill, though. The real problem with Nesmith and Langford was that there were also other players lacking in the skill department in Carsen, Waters, Bruno, Semi, Tacko. Say what you want about Thomas, Hauser, Kabangele but they do have actual basketball skills. Hauser isn't developing his 3 point shot, he has one. Will it translate? We'll see. Thomas is probably still working on his decision making skills, but is far further along than Tremont Waters was. Kabangele is light years from Tacko Fall. It looks like he could possibly be the 3rd big we wanted to sign this offseason and possibly a better option than Theis.
I'm not saying they are going to be good (or even average) basketball players, but they should be far more useful to winning than the crap Ainge was filling the end of roster spots with the last few years.
Stevens mostly traded away the end of the bench last year, a few of which were Danny Ainge holdovers. Not shocking there were a few hold overs, considering Stevens took over last year. Really though, Stevens traded away the entire bench last year, not just the end of it. Schroder, Richardson, Nesmith, Langford, Bruno, Enes, Juancho etc.
This team is build so much better than the start of last year. Though at the time, many of us thought the 21/22 team was built better than the previous couple year teams. Maybe that wasn't wrong, as they C's started to win games prior to trading some of them away. They won 7 games in a row when they had traded Schroder. Just took them awhile to hit their stride.
Anyway, really long post about Sam Hauser.
Hauser's probably going to give a lot back on defense but they have 15+2 roster spots. If anything, I think the C's have shied away from offense only players over the years. Sometimes, you need a guy who can hit a 3 as much as you need a guy to get a stop. Preferably, they have a few 1 sided players of both varieties at the end of the roster. If they could play both sides, they aren't at the end of the bench.
What's Hauser's absolute ceiling? Tall JJ Reddick? Kyle Korver? Not talking 5% outcome or likely outcome. Talking best possible. Maybe it's closer to Strus or Duncan? If Hauser works out, it's nice to have options like him and PP. You can never have enough shooting. They may not see big minutes in the playoffs but they probably will see situational minutes.
It would be a far cry from teams of the past where we are always crying for another shooter. It may be that even without Hauser. We can afford to have him at the end of the bench, though. In years past, there were too many end of bench spots going to developmental players, some of which had no real basketball skills. End of the bench isn't great shakes this year either but they are older players with basketball skills. I'd rather go with Brodric Thomas than the next Tremont Waters. When you are a competing team, you really shouldn't be wasting 5+ roster spots on projects.
I guess you could say that's what Hauser, Thomas, Kabangele are.. but not really. They may not be good, but they have considerably more basketball experience than Waters, Edwards, Langford, Nesmith did when they were employed here. This was a team trying to win basketball games. The regular season is long. They may not matter much come the playoffs, but they matter with seeding. Despite what any team says, it's always best to end up with a 1 or 2 seed than a 3 or 4. And nowadays, the 6th seed is a pretty big deal too. Every win matters. I'm guessing veteran bums are better than rookie scrubs. Obviously, if we have to rely on any of them in the playoffs, we are probably screwed barring some very positive and unexpected player development.
Even if Hauser develops into a 25 minute rotation player who averages 12/3/2 on .450/.420/.840 shooting, he's not going to be the difference maker come playoff time. He could win a few games for us over Aaron Nesmith in the regular season though. That has value.
Here's hoping he works. His skill set matches well with the role he's going to play so I like his chances more than the Smurfs. Still like him a bit less than I initially liked Nesmith and Langford but so did everyone else. That was based off projectability more than actual skill, though. The real problem with Nesmith and Langford was that there were also other players lacking in the skill department in Carsen, Waters, Bruno, Semi, Tacko. Say what you want about Thomas, Hauser, Kabangele but they do have actual basketball skills. Hauser isn't developing his 3 point shot, he has one. Will it translate? We'll see. Thomas is probably still working on his decision making skills, but is far further along than Tremont Waters was. Kabangele is light years from Tacko Fall. It looks like he could possibly be the 3rd big we wanted to sign this offseason and possibly a better option than Theis.
I'm not saying they are going to be good (or even average) basketball players, but they should be far more useful to winning than the crap Ainge was filling the end of roster spots with the last few years.
Stevens mostly traded away the end of the bench last year, a few of which were Danny Ainge holdovers. Not shocking there were a few hold overs, considering Stevens took over last year. Really though, Stevens traded away the entire bench last year, not just the end of it. Schroder, Richardson, Nesmith, Langford, Bruno, Enes, Juancho etc.
This team is build so much better than the start of last year. Though at the time, many of us thought the 21/22 team was built better than the previous couple year teams. Maybe that wasn't wrong, as they C's started to win games prior to trading some of them away. They won 7 games in a row when they had traded Schroder. Just took them awhile to hit their stride.
Anyway, really long post about Sam Hauser.
I think your post is very bullish on Brad's work, which I have to agree has been borderline brilliant.
Agree that Brad seems to have a stronger theory of what he wants at the end of the bench/rotation. Fewer projects, and more "one question away from being a rotation player" type guys.
Feels very Miami in many ways, and I wonder to what degree Brad admired their approach over the years.
When you have 15 roster spots and rarely more than 10 "regulars." it's borderline negligent not to have a couple of legitimate one-skill players on the bench. It would be like an MLB team with a 35 man roster not having a 3rd catcher.
If this guy can really shoot in games that matter (to the Celtics, though I appreciate the point made upthread that for Hauser, THESE games matter too), that's a huge asset for Boston. There were times in the playoffs last year where they just could not score, and sorely needed SOMEONE to make a three. If they can get that from Hauser, that's gold.
Yes. Jury is out on how much of an exposure he is on defense. But on days where the ball isn't moving great and they need a guy who can bomb, it will be nice to have a guy who doesn't need to escape dribble and step back just to try to get a shot off.
Being 6'7" barefoot with an 8'6" standing reach gives him some advantages over our only current bench bomber, since Gallo's hurt.
Found the Hauser analysis. This was the interesting part to me:
So once you weed out the really terrible defenders, you get a list of 15 ... with a lot of NBA players on there. Curry, of course. Kispert. Duncan Robinson. Cameron Johnson. Desmond Bane. Of the bunch, Hauser has the best three-point shooting percentage. His block rate is also near the top. When I first saw him in summer league, I thought he was a crap defender and wouldn't last long in the NBA. Since then, I've seen some promising signs that have left me less sure.
Great find, thanks. Interesting that we're the exactly the type of team the scout says he'd be a good fit for.
"For teams with enough rim-protection and versatile defenders on the wing, however, this is an incredible value play."
Good thing he's on a 3/$6m contract. I'm not that optimistic, though.
Lol Heat for that Duncan contract, though. I didn't think it would look quite this bad when I lol'd at it when he signed it, but here we are.
All I can think about when I see Hauser is Scott Wedman. I need help.
He looks like he can shoot. I love the 30 too.
He looks like he can shoot. I love the 30 too.
He feels like a perfect fit on the second unit with Tatum and Brogdon driving and putting defenses in rotation allowing Hauser to get open 3s, while also playing with Grant and whatever big guy happens to be out there means the rest of the D should be solid.
Ok, screw it, going to get optimistic about Hauser. I think he can play enough D (in the right lineups) against all but some really tough team matchups. Particularly in the regular season, I don't see how he is worse on D than Gallo would have been, and his shot is real.
I'd written Hauser off as being unplayable defensively, but as I've watched him more closely this preseason, maybe there's some hope he can be viable defensively in the Kyle Korver sense of just being big and in the right place most of the time.
Offensively, it's more than just a good shooting stroke. He's got a quick release, high release point, and moves well without the ball. I think he has the offensive package to actually be a weapon, not just a theoretically good shooter. It's just a question of whether or not he can be adequate defensively.
It's also possible that he takes some or all of Pritchard's minutes, leaving us with only one negative defensive link. Brogdan's versatility sets the team up nicely to do that if they want.
Offensively, it's more than just a good shooting stroke. He's got a quick release, high release point, and moves well without the ball. I think he has the offensive package to actually be a weapon, not just a theoretically good shooter. It's just a question of whether or not he can be adequate defensively.
It's also possible that he takes some or all of Pritchard's minutes, leaving us with only one negative defensive link. Brogdan's versatility sets the team up nicely to do that if they want.
Being a detriment defensively on a team like the Celtics is really only going to be a major factor during the postseason when teams are way more aggressive in hunting those matchups. During the regular season Hauser can be a weak link, but as long as he shoots like, 39% or greater from three, he will get playing time and be good for the Celtics. There is a way for Hauser to be an asset to the Celtics while also maybe not being a rotation player in the playoffs.
Agreed. There are plenty of regular season minutes available for a guy like Hauser if he's not Nesmith'ing his open looks. Ditto for Pritchard. If TL can actually be available in the spring, you're looking at a playoff rotation of:
TL
Horford / G. Will
Tatum
Brown / Brogdon
Smart / White
There won't be many minutes available for 9-10th man guys if the team is able to stay healthy (unlikely, I know). But he'll get a chance to earn more. Could be a nice situational guy to plug in for 2-3 minute spurts, if things go well.
Agree that weak individual defense doesn't get as exposed in the regular season.
It also doesn't get as exposed when playing against 2nd units. Bench opponents are mostly looking for the first good shot to score. Bench players want points, PT and to get paid. They aren't looking to give the ball up to teammates to get some sort of small edge.
Hiding a shrimpy starting PG with a bum knee or hip is 10X harder than hiding a young, healthy 6'8" bench wing
It also doesn't get as exposed when playing against 2nd units. Bench opponents are mostly looking for the first good shot to score. Bench players want points, PT and to get paid. They aren't looking to give the ball up to teammates to get some sort of small edge.
Hiding a shrimpy starting PG with a bum knee or hip is 10X harder than hiding a young, healthy 6'8" bench wing
Down with both of these. Size matters. If Hauser were 6'10" barefoot, there would already be consternation in this thread about him going to RFA. If he were 5'11", we'd be calling him Carsen Hauser. At his height, he's not as much of a black hole as a smurf. His wingspan, while only +2.5" is still over 6'9", unlike the 6'4"ish that guys like Kemba and PP sport. 8'6" standing reach. I guess what I'm saying is that there's a continuum of "black hole on defense".
I think Ainge overlooked the end of the bench because they don't really matter. That's the thing though, they don't matter... individually. As a whole, it's probably the difference between a game or three. And come post season, it won't matter because they aren't going to play. So it has the benefit of possibly better seeding and better rested players. Regular season players aren't an awful thing as long as you aren't paying them 5/90.
It felt like Ainge went with ceiling at every end of the bench position. Fit didn't really matter. Stevens appears focused on floor, with fit playing a role. Like, Carsen Edwards AND Tremont Waters? On a team with Kemba, no less. And Pritchard. Ugh. "But it's the end of the bench and these guys don't play." Yeah, individually.
It's finding value around the margins.
There is also a benefit to getting Hauser more NBA experience. He is only played 158 minutes; if you give him some time to really adjust to the NBA level, he can then be more useful in the playoffs. Even if he has a bunch of DNPs come playoff time, there very well might be a situation where the Celtics are clanging threes and they really just need someone to come on to the court and make a few shots, regardless of defense, and you'd feel much better if Hauser actually had some NBA experience before he is called upon to do that.
We see this every year, a team needs to shake something up in the playoffs and throw out a random bench dude to see what happens.
Yea Danny was using the end of the bench in the hunt for young lottery tickets. Taco, Tremont, Semi, Carsen, even Romeo and Nesmith. TILT... You have to give Danny credit for finding value in TimeLord and Grant
Have to like Brad's approach. He doesn't hesitate for a second or binky players.
JRich, DS, AN, RL, late 1sts, or sentimental favorites like Theis all sent packing for immediate and future upgrades.
He signs Hauser long-term after 158 minutes of floor time. Maybe he sees something in Kornet that we're missing?
Wyc has said Brad is more analytical in his approach than Danny. It has certainly played out like that.
Maybe Brad's greatest strength at Butler was uncovering undervalued HS kids that the Majors didn't recruit
Yes to this. DA was doing what is super hard to do - developing multiple younger players while still trying to win. I think he did this because he saw the tax implications of the Jays and was trying to develop cheap rotation players to complement them.
Too bad it didn't work out.
Ainge also had a lot of draftees to try to work into the lineup. Langford and Nesmith were going to get their chances to crack the rotation, and I can see why Ainge didn't want to walk away from Waters, Edwards, Ojeleye, etc. I mean, posters still bring up Max Strus as one that got away. To be fair, the players occupying spots 11-17 were not going to make up for Hayward's injuries, Kyrie's Kyrie-ness, Kemba's knee or Al Horford's exile to Philly and OKC.
Stevens knew he had to do something with the slots 6-10 during the offseason as the players occupying those spots got badly exposed in the playoffs, especially in the Finals (with the obvious note that it's the first 3 of those 5 slots that are most critical in the playoffs). And it will be nice to be able to distribute some minutes in January, February, and March, something Ime often did not have the luxury to do during last season's drive.