Dolphins v Broncos

Who will win?

  • Dolphins

    Votes: 17 16.0%
  • Broncos

    Votes: 89 84.0%

  • Total voters
    106

RIrooter09

Alvin
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2008
6,810
Pretty straightforward.  Who are you rooting for, and who do you think will win?  Personally I like Denver at home, but I'm rooting for Miami.  I don't think Miami will come into Gillette and win in three weeks, and I'd rather make life tougher for Peyton and co.  
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
47,989
Does everyone voting that they want to Dolphins to win understand that since we're essentially 2 games up on both teams, and one has a much easier schedule, and if they catch us force us down to the 4th seed at best, we should want them to lose?
 
EDIT: I guess if you're taking the "there's no way the Dolphins win at Foxboro" tack, I get it, but still.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I think people love to see Manning face so much that they are willing to take the chance.
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
8,461
NOVA
DrewDawg said:
Does everyone voting that they want to Dolphins to win understand that since we're essentially 2 games up on both teams, and one has a much easier schedule, and if they catch us force us down to the 4th seed at best, we should want them to lose?
 
EDIT: I guess if you're taking the "there's no way the Dolphins win at Foxboro" tack, I get it, but still.
 
I'm with you. Clinch the division then worry about the AFC.
 
EDIT: If the Patriots lose to the Lions, will folks change their minds and root for Denver?
 
Dec 10, 2012
6,943
We have the tiebreaker v. Denver and not v. Miami, and if we don't win the division we get all AFC playoff games (unless a potential unlikely AFC CG v. lower WC) on the road.
 
I'm with FLAV
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
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
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
32,860
Here
BigSoxFan said:
Or, they've seen enough quality play out of the Pats over the past 6 weeks to feel confident about the division even if Miami wins. Right now, the Broncos are the Patriots' greatest threat to the Glendale Revenge Trip. I want Manning on the road to start the playoffs.
 
People who feel confident about the Pats still winning the division if Miami wins should also feel confident that they would beat out Denver if Denver wins, since either team would be effectively 2 games behind the Pats, assuming a Pats win against Detroit. The risk is low either way, but I'd much rather the 2 seed and a bye than the 5 seed, so go Denver. It's starting to get cold--it will be 35 this Sunday in Denver-- so I think Denver will probably lose another game even if they win Sunday anyway.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
20,950
Philadelphia
BigSoxFan said:
Or, they've seen enough quality play out of the Pats over the past 6 weeks to feel confident about the division even if Miami wins. Right now, the Broncos are the Patriots' greatest threat to the Glendale Revenge Trip. I want Manning on the road to start the playoffs.
If that's the case, why wouldn't they feel confident about the #1 seed even if Denver wins?

If Miami takes the division from us, we need to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl (and one may well still be in Denver). If Denver takes the #1 seed from us, we probably still get a bye and a home game. Not only does Miami have a better chance than Denver of overtaking us after a win Sunday, the consequences are more severe.

There's really no justification for rooting for Denver based on a rational appraisal of how it affects the Patriots' chances of winning a Super Bowl. There's plenty of irrational justification - which has sway with me, trust me - based on the Manning face and the slight but real possibility it opens up of Denver losing to KC the following week, dropping another game somewhere, and not even making the playoffs.
 

kelpapa

Costanza's Hero
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IMO the Broncos are more of a roadblock to the Super Bowl. Winning in Denver in the playoffs is difficult. The Broncos losing makes it more difficult for them to get the Pats at home.
 
Plus, I live in Colorado and love seeing the Broncos lose.
 

Ed Hillel

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jacklamabe65 said:
Perhaps a tie would be best.....
 
Effectively the same as a Denver win and also more likely to lead to Manning face. Tie is indeed the best.
 
Actually, a tie decreases the chance that Denver gets a bye, so even better.
 
Mar 26, 2014
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I get that the nightmare scenario is NE losing to Miami in week 15 and losing the division, I'm just not believing that nightmare for a minute. It would require NE to lose at home in December, Miami to win on the road in the cold (yes it's the same game, but these two things both apply to it), Miami to win down the stretch, and NE to lose at least one more game. I just don't see all of that happening.
 
Denver stealing HFA from NE, while less catastrophic, feels much more likely. I can see them getting their act together and winning out. Fear of playing the AFCCG in Denver is also much more real to me, having experienced it as recently as last season.
 
Also, fuck Denver. I want them to miss out on a bye. I want the chance for Manning to lose another wildcard game at home.
 
I don't care if wanting Denver to win is more rational. Go Miami.
 

crystalline

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To me the most important thing is HFA against Den. If DEN loses, if/when the Pats see them again, it's more likely that will be in Foxboro, right?


There's lots of games left. At this point lots could change, so I think you should root for the better team to get the loss.
 

Ed Hillel

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crystalline said:
To me the most important thing is HFA against Den. If DEN loses, if/when the Pats see them again, it's more likely that will be in Foxboro, right?
 
 
Yes, but the difference between playing that game in Foxboro or Denver is way more than made up for by the fact that the Pats would have to win one entirely extra game on the road, and have to play their second game on the road as opposed to at home. You're also increasing the likelihood of injuries by playing that extra game. It's also assuming that Denver wins its first game.
 
All this notwithstanding, I know I'll be watching for that game just rooting against both teams. Whatever happens won't make me all that upset, I'd just prefer Denver win.
 

bakahump

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Doesnt this come down to asking "Do we have more faith in the Pats winning at Gillette in December.....or Mile High in January?"
 

crystalline

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Ed Hillel said:
 
Yes, but the difference between playing that game in Foxboro or Denver is way more than made up for by the fact that the Pats would have to win one entirely extra game on the road, and have to play their second game on the road as opposed to at home. You're also increasing the likelihood of injuries by playing that extra game. It's also assuming that Denver wins its first game.
 
All this notwithstanding, I know I'll be watching for that game just rooting against both teams. Whatever happens won't make me all that upset, I'd just prefer Denver win.
Actually I'd prioritize HFA against the Broncos, even though it increases the risk of a 5 seed and an extra game.
I'm not afraid of an extra game even on the road; just if the Pats play Den let it be at home. (I realize the probabilities show a bye is preferable but I have a lot of confidence in Belichick's game planning against any team except the Broncos.)

One counterargument: the extra game increases the chance Gronk gets hurt which is Kryptonite. So maybe you're right.
 

Curt S Loew

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I'm really surprised at the number of people rooting for a Dolphins win.  The Dolphins are in our division and playing well.  The Broncos aren't and playing poorly.  I'm rooting for a Broncos win and more injuries.
 

Stitch01

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Im on +8 and money line so hands are sort of tied.  If the Pats beat Detroit Im reasonably comfortable rooting for Miami even though I think its close but optimal to root for Denver as a Pats fan.  Pulling for Denver if the Pats get upset though, really don't want one massive high leverage game to have such a potential effect on seeding level even if the Pats win it 3/4 of the time.
 
Tie might actually be optimal having thought about it more if you take Ed's view and put value on avoiding Denver even at home, although it might increase the chances they slip to the 4 seed so its a little hard to say.
 

dynomite

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Might not be on the spirit of things, but I just care about the Pats taking care of business.

They shouldn't need help from anyone to be the #1 seed, and indeed are guaranteed the #1 if they finish 5-1.

As for this game... I'll add another vote for Fritos pizza.
 

H78

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bakahump said:
Doesnt this come down to asking "Do we have more faith in the Pats winning at Gillette in December.....or Mile High in January?"
 
Yes. That's exactly why I'm pulling for Miami.
 

steveluck7

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so i take it "meteor" is not an option?
 
I can't figure out wht i think about this game. One the one hand it's a big game for manning so the likelihood of him peeing down his leg is heightened. On the other hand it's a regular season game so the light's won't quite be at their brightest and Manning might play well.
 

riboflav

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tims4wins said:
Great point stitch if the Pats win Sunday then go Phins. If not go Denver
 
This is where I've been emotionally all week and even though my head disagrees (see above) and thinks we should root for Denver no matter what, I will probably root for Miami with a Pats' win over the Lions. But, if the Patriots win Sunday and Miami wins, then I'll be a nervous wreck if the Patriots lose to GB the following week.
 
 
EDIT: Rephrased the last part. Having a toddler and being on SoSH is harder than being a Celtics fan right now.
 

H78

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I can't believe people think Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins are a serious threat to run the table and steal the division from us, which would include having to win at least two more games than the Pats (one of which would have to be in Foxboro) out of the remaining six. If they don't win in Foxboro, they would have to win three more games than the Patriots in that span of time. I think the Phins drop at least one, more likely two games. They probably lose to both Denver AND New England.
 
Maybe I'm a bit naive but I'm worried about Peyton Manning, not Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have beaten something like two quality opponents all year, and I believe they were San Diego and the Patriots back when Gronk wasn't Gronk and we still didn't know what the offense line would look like.
 
100% not buying Miami as a threat in any way with NE two games up and still possessing the opportunity to pile on a nice mid-December Foxboro blowout.
 
Not that this means too much, but the last time Tannehill played in Foxboro in December: 28-0 Patriots.
 
Edit: Clarity
 

Stitch01

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They're not a serious threat in the sense that their chances are really marginal and they basically have to win in NE, but frankly the Pats don't have a lot of major threats right now (knock on wood, serious caveat, health permitting) given how they've seized the opportunities available over the last month while mostly everything else broke right in games involving other teams. 
 
Miami has a head-to-head game left, the easiest schedule left of other teams, a clear path to winning the tiebreaker, and the downside of dropping from 1 seed to 5 seed is much higher than of dropping from 1 seed to 2 seed. 
 

tims4wins

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Yeah even if Miami wins both at Denver and at New England - extremely unlikely - they still have to win their other 4 games to really have a shot at the division. Those 4 games are:
 
@ NYJ (should be easy but they're usually good for at least one annual battle against the Jets)
vs. Bal (home game which is good but Baltimore is also good and will be playing for their playoff life)
vs. Minn (likely a gimme)
vs. NYJ (see above comment)
 
While they will be favorites in all 4 of those games, and it is an easy schedule, it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose one. Overall I can't see them winning 7 straight and winning out. Not with that inconsistent offense.
 
Edit: also, the Miami @ NE game will be a hats and t shirts game, and the Pats rarely lose those.
 

Ed Hillel

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I really think this is being overthought, because I think it's this simple, especially since I view Denver and Miami about even odds to lose one of their other 4 games: Assume that New England goes 1-1 over its next two games (if they win both, it's likely irrelevant anyway). Would you rather the game against Miami potentially drop the Patriots to the 2 seed or the 5 seed?
 
Now if the Pats lose both Detroit and Green Bay, it's a bit more difficult of a question. I just think it's far more likely that the Pats win at least one (I'd put the odds around 90% the Pats win at least one of the next two).
 
Yeah even if Miami wins both at Denver and at New England - extremely unlikely - they still have to win their other 4 games to really have a shot at the division.
 
Denver has @ KC and @Cincinatti, which is a more difficult schedule than Miami has of the other 4 games. As I mentioned above, I'd say Miami and Denver are about equal odds to lose another game of those 4 others. So even if Denver beats Miami, they'll probably lose another, which puts the Pats' downside as the 2 seed and probably gives them another game to work with for the 1 seed, so still really good odds for that. It's far better to have the downside be the 2 seed than the 5 seed.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Its also just a question of joint probabilities and events that are (or are not) independent. Both teams essentially need to win out and have NE lose two games. For Denver, those conditions are independent, so they need to hit a tough parlay. Just for argument's sake, say they have a 20% chance of winning out after winning against Miami and, conditional on them winning out, there is a 50% chance of New England dropping at least two more games. They have a 10% chance of overtaking us as a matter of joint probability. Now say Miami has only a 15% chance of winning out after a win against Denver but, conditional on them winning out (which involves a win against NE), there is a 80% chance of the Patriots dropping another game. They have a 12% chance of overtaking us as a mater of joint probability.

TLDR: Miami could have a lower chance of winning out than Denver (after a win on Sunday) but still have a higher chance of overtaking us.

This is before even getting into the consequences of being overtaken.
 

Ed Hillel

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Its also just a question of joint probabilities and events that are (or are not) independent. Both teams essentially need to win out and have NE lose two games. For Denver, those conditions are independent, so they need to hit a tough parlay. Just for argument's sake, say they have a 20% chance of winning out after winning against Miami and, conditional on them winning out, there is a 50% chance of New England dropping at least two more games. They have a 10% chance of overtaking us as a matter of joint probability. Now say Miami has only a 15% chance of winning out after a win against Denver but, conditional on them winning out (which involves a win against NE), there is a 80% chance of the Patriots dropping another game. They have a 12% chance of overtaking us as a mater of joint probability.

TLDR: Miami could have a lower chance of winning out than Denver (after a win on Sunday) but still have a higher chance of overtaking us.

This is before even getting into the consequences of being overtaken.
 
Right. I probably wasn't as clear, but was also trying to say that I think the odds of Miami and Denver winning out in those other 4 games are roughly equal, given the schedules (I actually think the odds are better Miami wins out). So if we let them cancel each other out, it basically comes down to would you rather be the 2 or 5 seed with a potential loss to Miami. 
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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Ed Hillel said:
Now if the Pats lose both Detroit and Green Bay, it's a bit more difficult of a question. I just think it's far more likely that the Pats win at least one (I'd put the odds around 90% the Pats win at least one of the next two).
 
So you think we're at 70% to beat each of the 7-3 teams who co-lead the NFC North, with the former having - by far - the fewest points given up in the league, and the latter having the most points scored in the league and the same point differential as the Pats?  Strikes me as excessively optimistic.
 
edit: I don't think people are nearly as worried about Detroit as they should be.  I'm far more worried about this game, at home, than I was about the game in Indy.
 

pokey_reese

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So, this is confusing me.  When I play with the ESPN playoff machine (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/powerranking/results/400554371~1~400554395~1~400554432~1) and have the Pats going 4-2 lose t@GB and @SD, and the Broncos going 5-1 with a loss @KC, it shows the Broncos getting the first seed with both teams having 12-4 records.
 
When you go to the page explaining tie-breakers, it suggests that head-to-head is for Divisional ties, not Conference ties (http://espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers), but does go to head-to-head for wild-card play, and then later says that Home field between division winners is determined by wild-card rules, which should say that NE beats DEN, as we have all been talking about.
 
So is it just that the playoff machine is broken?  If you go to the scenario I created and click the "tiebreakers" link, it says that DEN beats out NE and BAL based on conference record.  WTF?
 

Stitch01

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You created a three way tie and the teams didn't all play each other, so head to head can't be used as a tie breaker. Denver wins one seed by best conference record among the three teams, then the Pats and Baltimore break their tie and Pats win by conference record. Give the Ravens one more loss and it will show NE as one seed

That said I'm not sure it does three way head to heads right because it doesn't give the Pats the one seed in a three way tie with Indy and Denver where the Pats were 2-0 against the two teams. My understanding is Pats win in that scenario.
 

Ed Hillel

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MentalDisabldLst said:
 
So you think we're at 70% to beat each of the 7-3 teams who co-lead the NFC North, with the former having - by far - the fewest points given up in the league, and the latter having the most points scored in the league and the same point differential as the Pats?  Strikes me as excessively optimistic.
 
I'd put the odds of the Pats winning at home against Detroit around 80% and winning in Green Bay around 35-40%, which makes the odds of the Pats winning at least one at around 85-88%. So maybe 90% is slightly high.
 
I guess you're more of a believer that Detroit can come in and beat the Pats than I am. Maybe that's based on your theory that Matthew Stafford is possibly a better QB than Tom Brady. I personally think Matt Stafford kind of sucks, and would be surprised if Detroit put up more than 17-20 points against the Pats D in NE. Stafford has had the benefit of a top defense in the league and scored 25 points or more exactly once this entire season. Megatron has missed some time, sure, but Revis has pretty much owned Megatron in the past, so I'm not super worried. He'll win some battles, but I don't expect a huge game for him.
 

Stitch01

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If the games are independent trials then to be 90 percent to go 1-1 or better you have to be 70 percent or so to win each game or some similar combo (30 percent to lose 1st times 30 percent to lose second is 9 percent). He's correct at what your statement implies mathematically
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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Ed Hillel said:
I guess you're more of a believer that Detroit can come in and beat the Pats than I am. Maybe that's based on your theory that Matthew Stafford is possibly a better QB than Tom Brady. I personally think Matt Stafford kind of sucks, and would be surprised if Detroit put up more than 17-20 points against the Pats D in NE. Stafford has had the benefit of a top defense in the league and scored 25 points or more exactly once this entire season. Megatron has missed some time, sure, but Revis has pretty much owned Megatron in the past, so I'm not super worried. He'll win some battles, but I don't expect a huge game for him.
 
We should probably have a Pats-Detroit pregame thread, but, I have never advanced any sort of theory about Matthew Stafford, nevermind that he's better than Tom Brady.  I literally have no idea what (or who) you're talking about with that.
 
The Detroit offense is slightly below league-average, with only 1 standout threat and a downright lousy rushing attack.  Their defense, however, might be the best in the league.  They top the FO Defense leaderboard by a mile, well ahead of Denver and Miami.  I haven't really read anything about the impact that this defense might have matching up with the Pats (particularly their D-line on our O-line).  With many games, we don't have too much to be worried about other than "any given sunday" type mayhem, or one of our own guys shitting the bed.  With this game, there is a lot about the other team's skills, specifically, that we might well be worried about.  They're 7-3, no matter how much Stafford has stunk so far (and frankly, he's in line with his career averages).  I think you ought to be more worried than you are.
 

Ed Hillel

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MentalDisabldLst said:
 
We should probably have a Pats-Detroit pregame thread, but, I have never advanced any sort of theory about Matthew Stafford, nevermind that he's better than Tom Brady.  I literally have no idea what (or who) you're talking about with that.
 
Oh dear, I confused you with GlennHoff. My sincerest apologies.
 
Pats are big favorites, and I'm pretty much about as confident, if not a bit moreso, than the line (I think 7-8 favorites win outright like 75% of the time). Detroit has a good defense, but the Pats have probably the best or second best offense and they have a better defense than Detroit has an offense. It's also at home, where the Patriots dominate. I'm more worried about the Miami game than this game.
 

pokey_reese

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Stitch01 said:
You created a three way tie and the teams didn't all play each other, so head to head can't be used as a tie breaker. Denver wins one seed by best conference record among the three teams, then the Pats and Baltimore break their tie and Pats win by conference record. Give the Ravens one more loss and it will show NE as one seed

That said I'm not sure it does three way head to heads right because it doesn't give the Pats the one seed in a three way tie with Indy and Denver where the Pats were 2-0 against the two teams. My understanding is Pats win in that scenario.
Ah, thank you for exposing my brain damage.  I was in a rush and didn't realize that the built in scenario they created has the Ravens winning out, creating the confusion.
 

JMDurron

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I'll believe that a Peyton Manning-led team isn't the biggest threat to the Patriots' Super Bowl chances once I see his cold, dead body held in the hands of the Miami defensive line.  Go Dolphins.  
 

Super Nomario

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MentalDisabldLst said:
The Detroit offense is slightly below league-average, with only 1 standout threat and a downright lousy rushing attack.  Their defense, however, might be the best in the league.  They top the FO Defense leaderboard by a mile, well ahead of Denver and Miami.  I haven't really read anything about the impact that this defense might have matching up with the Pats (particularly their D-line on our O-line).  With many games, we don't have too much to be worried about other than "any given sunday" type mayhem, or one of our own guys shitting the bed.  With this game, there is a lot about the other team's skills, specifically, that we might well be worried about.  They're 7-3, no matter how much Stafford has stunk so far (and frankly, he's in line with his career averages).  I think you ought to be more worried than you are.
You're probably right - Detroit doesn't have a lot of skins on the wall, but 7-3 teams must be doing something right and the Lions are certainly a threat to pull the upset.
 
I have a little skepticism around the improvement of the Lions defense - they were 15th in points and 16th in yards last year but are 1st in both this year without really making a lot of defensive changes. I get the coaching change may have helped, and some growth from guys like Ansah and Slay, but they also lost Willie Young, Louis Delmas, and Stephon Tulloch and won't have Fairley Sunday. Is this really the best defense in the league, or just a pretty good defense on a hot streak? I still see a lot of holes in the secondary that I think New England will be able to exploit.
 
On the other hand, they obliterated the Patriots in the preseason a couple years ago, and that was in a third preseason game where the starters played extensively. If the interior OL struggles that much again it'll be a long day for the Pats.
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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JMDurron said:
I'll believe that a Peyton Manning-led team isn't the biggest threat to the Patriots' Super Bowl chances once I see his cold, dead body held in the hands of the Miami defensive line.  Go Dolphins.  
 
Quarterbacks Tom Brady has lost to in the playoffs:
 
2005: Jake Plummer
2006: Peyton Manning
2007: Eli Manning
2009: Joe Flacco
2010: Mark Sanchez
2011: Eli Manning (2)
2012: Joe Flacco (2)
2013: Peyton Manning (2)
 
Clearly, this year he is destined to go down to a Sanchez-led Eagles team in the super bowl.  Or Jake Plummer comes out of retirement, one or the other.
 

Import78

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Super Nomario said:
 
On the other hand, they obliterated the Patriots in the preseason a couple years ago, and that was in a third preseason game where the starters played extensively. If the interior OL struggles that much again it'll be a long day for the Pats.
 
I'm pretty confident that the bolded should not factor into your thinking.  You have 10 times the football knowledge I do, maybe more, but given the fact that the line has turned over, is playing pretty well and that game wasn't even this year I think we can ignore that result.
 

JMDurron

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MentalDisabldLst said:
 
Quarterbacks Tom Brady has lost to in the playoffs:
 
2005: Jake Plummer
2006: Peyton Manning
2007: Eli Manning
2009: Joe Flacco
2010: Mark Sanchez
2011: Eli Manning (2)
2012: Joe Flacco (2)
2013: Peyton Manning (2)
 
Clearly, this year he is destined to go down to a Sanchez-led Eagles team in the super bowl.  Or Jake Plummer comes out of retirement, one or the other.
 
Let's be clear here - I'm not falling prey to the moronic compulsion felt by so many media outlets to look at games as QB-vs-QB affairs.  What I'm falling prey to is the expectation that this year's Devastating Injury to a DB (TM) just hasn't happened yet, and that Manning's weapons are going to get healthy in time for the playoffs.  In any scenario against the Dolphins, their DL is a far greater threat than any other part of their team.  Normal injury attrition to the Patriots (or various currently injured Dolphins returning to health) won't impact my expectations of the matchup in the same manner that they do with the Broncos, due to the combination of Manning and his weapons.  I'd much rather see other teams knock the Broncos down into the WC position before those weapons get healthy to reduce the odds of the Broncos making it up to visit in January.  Against, the Dolphins, literally the only thing I'd be worried about injury-wise to the Patriots would be an offensive lineman going down, because then the pass rush risk goes even higher.  The odds of Tannehill having one of his good days AND the Dolphins pass rush getting to Brady repeatedly is pretty constant in my mind, regardless of home/away or seeding considerations.  I just don't expect Tannehill to zero in on a potential Patriots defensive weakness in the same way that Manning would, should attrition cause such a weakness to appear.  If Tannehill has a good game at the same time the pass rush is effective, I don't think many other elements of the game are particularly significant in terms of the chances that they will radically change between now and January.  The risk is the same now as it will be then, in my mind.  The odds of a weakness appearing that Manning can manage to exploit, due to his reasonably consistent ability to make decisions when he has his weapons, go way up over time.  
 
Now, maybe I'm being paranoid about the odds of such an injury to the Patriots defense happening, but that's the real root of my concern.  I just don't see such an injury mattering against the Dolphins in the same way that it would matter against the Broncos offense, if/when it returns to health.  
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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JMDurron said:
 
Let's be clear here - I'm not falling prey to the moronic compulsion felt by so many media outlets to look at games as QB-vs-QB affairs.

(blah blah blah, wall of text)  
if my last two sentences didnt label my post as joking clearly enough, I dont know what to tell you. :p
 

dbn

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I think - though I'm not sure - the logical answer is that it's better if Denver wins. However, it is both physically and metaphysically impossible for me not to root against a Manning.
 

JMDurron

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MentalDisabldLst said:
if my last two sentences didnt label my post as joking clearly enough, I dont know what to tell you. :p
 
I took it as you being snarky regarding the idea that Peyton Manning, the QB himself, was the lone reason to be worried about winning or losing.  
 

slowstrung

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dbn said:
I think - though I'm not sure - the logical answer is that it's better if Denver wins. However, it is both physically and metaphysically impossible for me not to root against a Manning.
Exactly. I hope Cooper bankrupts his company with bad trades and does a sentence longer than Madoff.