Dolphins: Tua Be or Not To Be?

Should Miami Trade for Deshaun Watson

  • Yes. Deshaun is a star. Take the known entity.

    Votes: 68 70.8%
  • No. Build around Tua and forge a stronger overall team.

    Votes: 28 29.2%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .

rymflaherty

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Just take good players. And it seems they got four good players who could start/contribute in meaningful ways this year. I never thought they'd take a RB this high
And may I add, good players at premium positions.

One thing I completely dont understand is why anyone assumes any of these backs (beyond the top 3) would be better than Gaskin. (If you want to say Ahmed as well, the same applies) I’m not the biggest Gaskin fan, but he put up good numbers...and at times it was with the shitshow passing game where there wasn’t a receiver on the field the defense needed to respect. It would stand to reason Gaskin could be much better simply by having the likes of Fuller and Waddle on the field. You start lining those two up all over, or sending one in motion, it’s entirely different situation for any back. Or you likely want to incorporate more quick passes to those guys in lieu of running plays. Guess that’s just a long way of saying, I think the most important part of a successful running game is going to be line play and scheme.l more so than forcing one of these second tier guys.
Plus they still could get a guy like Chuba Hubbard, who wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up a good starting back.
 

sodenj5

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And may I add, good players at premium positions.

One thing I completely dont understand is why anyone assumes any of these backs (beyond the top 3) would be better than Gaskin. (If you want to say Ahmed as well, the same applies) I’m not the biggest Gaskin fan, but he put up good numbers...and at times it was with the shitshow passing game where there wasn’t a receiver on the field the defense needed to respect. It would stand to reason Gaskin could be much better simply by having the likes of Fuller and Waddle on the field. You start lining those two up all over, or sending one in motion, it’s entirely different situation for any back. Or you likely want to incorporate more quick passes to those guys in lieu of running plays. Guess that’s just a long way of saying, I think the most important part of a successful running game is going to be line play and scheme.l more so than forcing one of these second tier guys.
Plus they still could get a guy like Chuba Hubbard, who wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up a good starting back.
It’s a double edged sword. This draft class was shallow at RB. Last year was deep. I understand not wanting to reach for a RB when there are only three premium choices

The bigger miss is last year where they had so much draft capital they were taking long snappers in the sixth round and it was a deep RB class. They underestimated the demand on RBs and allowed themselves to get caught on the outside of the RBs in the first three rounds.

Gaskin is fine. He’s a decent all around back, but he isn’t a player defenses key in on to stop, which is what makes the RPO game so effective. They aren’t over committing to stop Gaskin, and therefore they aren’t really gaining the same advantage off of RPOs and playaction passes, which across the league are the most efficient play calls.

I would say Michael Carter and Chuba Hubbard are the most appealing options left.
 

sodenj5

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Looking around the internet this morning and it seems like near universal praise for Grier and the draft. It was top heavy with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and then nothing until round 7, but those first 5 picks are all projected to be significant contributors this year.

They also snagged Gerrid Doaks who looks like the poor man’s version of Javonte Williams. Big, physical inside runner that can also catch the ball pretty well but has had some injury issues. At the very least he’s a good compliment to Myles Gaskin, who was also a 7th round pick.
 

pdaj

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They also snagged Gerrid Doaks who looks like the poor man’s version of Javonte Williams. Big, physical inside runner that can also catch the ball pretty well but has had some injury issues. At the very least he’s a good compliment to Myles Gaskin, who was also a 7th round pick.
I can envision Doaks churning out a role as a short yardage/goal-line option for Miami. This wasn't a strength for Gaskin/Ahmed. It might take a season, however, as it's very possible that Malcom Brown scores a lot of TDs for this team in '21.

In watching Doaks college highlights, he appears to be a bit sneaky solid as a receiver.
 

sodenj5

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I can envision Doaks churning out a role as a short yardage/goal-line option for Miami. This wasn't a strength for Gaskin/Ahmed. It might take a season, however, as it's very possible that Malcom Brown scores a lot of TDs for this team in '21.

In watching Doaks college highlights, he appears to be a bit sneaky solid as a receiver.
I definitely see some Jay Ajayi in Doaks’s game. Also don’t forget that Jordan Howard had like half a dozen 1 yard TDs before Miami cut him.

I don’t mind a RBBC as long as there’s some complimentary skill sets. Once they cut Jordan, there were too many similar backs in the backfield and no one that could handle the short yardage and goal line carries.

No one in Miami’s backfield is a true homerun hitter, but between the OLine fortifications and the improvements to the receivers, it should open up some running lanes and they should have more consistency.
 

sodenj5

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Saw this on Twitter this afternoon. Hooker is a big name but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I wouldn’t read a ton into this other than they’re seeing if he wants to take a one year prove it deal and would have a chance to compete with McCain.

I don’t think you dump McCain, strictly because Hooker is so injury prone. But there are worse guys to take a flyer on.
 

sodenj5

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View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1390304508333363202?s=21


This isn’t shocking because Miami basically just drafted his replacement in Javon Holland and had Hooker in for a visit.

What makes it a little surprising is that Holland played a ton of slot CB or Big Nickel and not a ton of true deep safety at Oregon. He has the athletic profile and ball skills to do it, but his actual play there is almost entirely projection.

A lot of people were projecting Holland to play the role that Flores wanted Minkah to play. Working more out of the slot and in the box and less as a true FS.

He might still fill that role, but I think this makes Hooker at least more likely as a guy with true center fielder type of range and experience in the back.

McCain was a very good slot CB, but obviously had his limitations at safety. Commend him for taking the position change head on and being an excellent player for a 5th round draft pick.
 

sodenj5

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Miami at NE Week 1.

Last year, NE went from 2 decades of Tom Brady to running a single wing offense with Cam Newton and Miami had zero game tape in advance of the matchup.

If Miami gets caught with their pants down two years in a row, I’ll be less than enthused. They certainly added some weapons in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor, but I don’t think we’re going to see a complete reinvention of the offense assuming Cam is the Week 1 starter.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Miami at NE Week 1.

Last year, NE went from 2 decades of Tom Brady to running a single wing offense with Cam Newton and Miami had zero game tape in advance of the matchup.

If Miami gets caught with their pants down two years in a row, I’ll be less than enthused. They certainly added some weapons in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor, but I don’t think we’re going to see a complete reinvention of the offense assuming Cam is the Week 1 starter.
I'm more interested to see how bad the sky is falling if a reinvigorated Pat's defense makes Tua look pedestrian.
 

sodenj5

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I'm more interested to see how bad the sky is falling if a reinvigorated Pat's defense makes Tua look pedestrian.
In here or in the media at large? Because we’re all pretty even keeled here in regards to Tua. Obviously we’re hoping for the best, but I won’t be abandoning the 2021 season if Belichick manages to take a win against Miami at home.

I’ll be interested in seeing how Miami plans to attack NE’s defense. I think they added the personnel that allows them to be more flexible on offense this year. They can run more 12 personnel with Hunter Long and Gesicki, but they can also spread the field and run Waddle, Parker, Gesicki, and Williams out there.

Of note: Will Fuller won’t be playing as he serves the last game of his suspension Week 1.
 

sodenj5

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Posted in the Pats schedule thread, but it’s rumored right now Miami might cap the season in Week 18 home against NE. I would imagine it’s also a distinct possibility Miami is facing a different QB and a different looking offense in that matchup vs Week 1.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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In here or in the media at large? Because we’re all pretty even keeled here in regards to Tua. Obviously we’re hoping for the best, but I won’t be abandoning the 2021 season if Belichick manages to take a win against Miami at home.

I’ll be interested in seeing how Miami plans to attack NE’s defense. I think they added the personnel that allows them to be more flexible on offense this year. They can run more 12 personnel with Hunter Long and Gesicki, but they can also spread the field and run Waddle, Parker, Gesicki, and Williams out there.

Of note: Will Fuller won’t be playing as he serves the last game of his suspension Week 1.
No, I know you're a Tuapologist :)

I think if Tua starts slow, the media will have an easy built storyline ready for use. "Dolphins pass on 'insert rookie QB', Tua continues his struggles."

It's crazy. Even when hes been given a long leash by the team, the media has been ready to bury him. That trend will continue with early struggles, especially if any of the rookie QBs hit the ground running.

And maybe the team and Tua deserve that scrutiny, I dont know.
 
Extremely early Week 1 betting line is Patriots -2.5 at home, which is either a push or a very slight underdog depending on how you value home field in gambling.

View: https://twitter.com/pff/status/1392481616224718851?s=21
FWIW, the SF @ DET line listed there is backwards. (I'm not sure if any of the others are as well, but Detroit being favored by a TD over the 49ers seemed so wrong that I had to look that one up.)

Also FWIW, you'll note that there's no line on the Saints-Packers game, given that nobody knows who will be QB for Green Bay. (Heh.)
 

sodenj5

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No, I know you're a Tuapologist :)

I think if Tua starts slow, the media will have an easy built storyline ready for use. "Dolphins pass on 'insert rookie QB', Tua continues his struggles."

It's crazy. Even when hes been given a long leash by the team, the media has been ready to bury him. That trend will continue with early struggles, especially if any of the rookie QBs hit the ground running.

And maybe the team and Tua deserve that scrutiny, I dont know.
That’s what I was assuming you meant and I agree. It’ll be an easy story to start running with. Miami didn’t re-sign Fitzpatrick. They passed on Herbert. They traded out of 3 and passed on the opportunity for Lance, Fields, and Jones.

Definitely an important year for Tua and important for him to start well because it can quickly become a media dog pile if Miami starts slow.

From what I can see on social media, it appears he’s been hard at work this offseason and Flores and Grier have both been openly saying they expect to see a significant jump from Tua this year. So it seems at the very least he’s been putting in the work to try and make that a reality.
 
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rymflaherty

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Miami at NE Week 1.

Last year, NE went from 2 decades of Tom Brady to running a single wing offense with Cam Newton and Miami had zero game tape in advance of the matchup.

If Miami gets caught with their pants down two years in a row, I’ll be less than enthused. They certainly added some weapons in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor, but I don’t think we’re going to see a complete reinvention of the offense assuming Cam is the Week 1 starter.
No film what-so-ever, since there wasn’t even a pre-season. That game sucked, but it’s tough to blame the staff too much considering the circumstances.

Guess I’m feeling bullish on this team, because I just went and threw some money on the Dolphins ML after seeing those odds posted. Wish Fuller was going to be available, but if they can get to the season healthy, it’ll still be a large upgrade of talent comparative to what Tua worked with much of the season, even while he serves his suspension.
 

sodenj5

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No film what-so-ever, since there wasn’t even a pre-season. That game sucked, but it’s tough to blame the staff too much considering the circumstances.

Guess I’m feeling bullish on this team, because I just went and threw some money on the Dolphins ML after seeing those odds posted. Wish Fuller was going to be available, but if they can get to the season healthy, it’ll still be a large upgrade of talent comparative to what Tua worked with much of the season, even while he serves his suspension.
Which is why I’m willing to give them a mulligan for last year but would be pretty disappointed if we see a similar performance from them this year. Obviously they have added weapons and I would expect to see a more robust passing game out of 12 personnel, but I don’t think it’s going to be night and day different like last year.

I’ve seen some books open at -2. Either way, Vegas thinks they’re fairly evenly matched, which I would agree with.
 

sodenj5

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Schedule is out and my initial thought is Miami is going to need to start fast because their schedule is top heavy to start. At NE and vs Buffalo in Weeks 1 and 2 means no time for messing around.

Miami had the exact same start last year and went 0-2, losing Byron Jones early in that first Buffalo game.

@Raiders, vs Colts, and @Bucs rounds out the first 5 weeks before the schedule lets off the gas and Miami gets the Jags and Falcons.

Miami also opted to not take their bye week after the London game vs Jacksonville. The bye is late this year at Week 14, but I think that might be a blessing as every team adapts to an 18 week schedule this year.
 

pdaj

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It's definitely a challenging start to the schedule. On the road against New England, and then at home against the Bills, followed by a trip to the opposite coast to face the Raiders. From there, the Dolphins will play the Colts and Bucs in Weeks 4 and 5. I could envision a 2-3 and 5-5 start before making a likely playoff push. Miami will have to win a really tough game or two during this stretch -- maybe one of the Buffalo games and the Ravens contest, for instance -- for a less challenging outlook. Of course, so much can happen before the season even starts, never mind the week-to-week variables, such as injuries,. But, hey, this is what a message board is for, right?

The way the league, media, and fans talk about NFL quarterbacks is fascinating to me, because I think there are so many contingencies at play contributing to the sky-high expectations for the position. The "umbrella issue" is money. There's so much cash at stake for owners/shareholders, which has a trickle-down effect on so many of the league's organizations. Coaches get less time to establish a winning program, and as a result, quarterbacks must prove that "they got it" immediately. Meanwhile, the media talks out both sides of their traps. "Hot take" loud mouths, like Cowherd, argue for Miami to draft another QB with the #3 pick, while during other segments, lambastes the NFL for not developing/ruining quarterbacks. Darnold is a recent example.

Only in the NFL, could we see a "Tank for Tua" movement turn into "he's a bust" narrative following a 6-3 record and a quarterback rating that ranks 16th all-time among rookie quarterbacks. So what that he started his first game less than a year after enduring a catastrophic hip injury? Or that he wasn't able to participate in a training camp or preseason game? Or that for the majority of the season, he threw to DeVante Parker and a cast of fringe receivers? Nope, Tua didn't pass the "eye test" of non-scouts/coaches. He didn't have that Mahomes electricity!

Meanwhile, so many of the people who talk/write about the sport have zero experience teaching ... anything. All they know is, when a young quarterback is struggling, he has to "work through it." Trial and error. And if he's benched? He just doesn't have "it." They say this because that's been how the QB spot has been handled over the past couple of decades, not because it's a proven strategy for developing players at this most important position.

In the MLB, where a top prospect/starting pitcher routinely gets pulled in the 3rd inning after walking his 4th batter or giving up his 5th ER? No one bats and eye. On to the next start! ... or learning opportunity, right? While it's true that most of learning occurs when doing, best establishing conditions for success and limiting unnecessary failures is a scientifically proven approach to optimizing performance. In the behavior analytic field, it's referred to as errorless teaching. In other words, there's value in handling your rookie QB with kid gloves, putting him in situations to succeed, and terminating contexts where frequent mistakes are occurring and unfavorable results are likely.

Often, a coach may not believe he has that luxury to operate in this fashion (for some of the reasons cited above), but Flores? He had job security. Balls. And Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I'm really, really looking forward to Tua's second season. I expect a significant step forward.