Dolphins: Tua Be or Not To Be?

Should Miami Trade for Deshaun Watson

  • Yes. Deshaun is a star. Take the known entity.

    Votes: 68 70.8%
  • No. Build around Tua and forge a stronger overall team.

    Votes: 28 29.2%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .

BaseballJones

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So basically they traded 3rd and 124th pick this season for 6th and 103rd pick this season and a first round in 2023?
That's a pretty good pair of exchanges when you put them together like that. Moving down three spots in the first (while likely still getting the player they really want) while moving up 21 spots later on and picking up a "free" first rounder in a couple of years....not too bad.
 

radsoxfan

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I get wanting to trade into top 3 in advance to lock in one of the top 3 QBs, there is some certainty there if you know you are OK with one of them.

Trading for #6 in advance is interesting, wonder who they are targeting and if that person will even be there.
 

swiftaw

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6th is also high enough that there could be significant demand for it on draft day id the picks 1 through 5 break a certain way.
 

BigSoxFan

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So, the Dolphins effectively got 4 first round picks for Tunsil? LOL. Nice work, BoB.
 

sodenj5

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I get wanting to trade into top 3 in advance to lock in one of the top 3 QBs, there is some certainty there if you know you are OK with one of them.

Trading for #6 in advance is interesting, wonder who they are targeting and if that person will even be there.
WR1 assuming the Bengals take Sewell. If the Bengals take Chase, then Sewell or WR2, whoever their preference is.

Also the nuts and bolts of the trade are Miami drops three spots and picks up an extra first in 2023. They own SF’s first next year, so they’re betting they’ll be as good or better than SF next year, which they were this year.
 
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ehaz

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6th is also high enough that there could be significant demand for it on draft day id the picks 1 through 5 break a certain way.
That would be hilarious. Sewell and Chase go #4 and #5 then MIA trades #6 for another ransom.
 

radsoxfan

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WR1 assuming the Bengals take Sewell. If the Bengals take Chase, then Sewell or WR2, whoever their preference is.

Also the nuts and bolts of the trade are Miami drops three spots and picks up an extra first in 2023. They own SF’s first next year, so they’re betting they’ll be as good or better than SF next year, which they were this year.
Yeah, that's true. If the top 3 is truly locked into QB as expected, then the 6th pick really becomes with 3rd pick of the rest of the draft.

They probably feel good with their top 3 non QBs, makes sense.
 

sodenj5

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Um wasn't the 2022 1st traded to PHI? Edit never mind they sent their own
Miami traded their own 2022 first rounder to Philly and kept San Fran’s. So Miami fans get to openly root against another franchise this year, which was a blast last year.
 

tims4wins

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Miami traded their own 2022 first rounder to Philly and kept San Fran’s. So Miami fans get to openly root against another franchise this year, which was a blast last year.
Celtics fans know how fun this can be.

Pats fans enjoyed rooting against the Niners... until Jimmy won a bunch of games and made that pick much worse than it should have been (went from 34-35 into the 40s).
 

rymflaherty

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I get wanting to trade into top 3 in advance to lock in one of the top 3 QBs, there is some certainty there if you know you are OK with one of them.

Trading for #6 in advance is interesting, wonder who they are targeting and if that person will even be there.
I feel like they want Chase or Pitts, and they feel #6 puts them in position to ensure one of them. And if worst case is Sewell or F’ it trade back again...that isn’t that bad either.
 

rymflaherty

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If you’re into schadenfreude, check out the Eagles Reddit, specifically the thread reporting the SF/Miami trade and the Eagles fans celebrating that Chase should be available to them at #6.
 

sodenj5

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My take on Sewell is this: Miami had Tunsil and did mostly nothing with him. Miami had Jake Long and did mostly nothing with him.

Elite, elite left tackles are a luxury item. You can win with an average left tackle. You can win with a below average tackle.

Bill Belichick isn’t losing sleep over how he can generate pressure vs Penei Sewell. He’s losing sleep if he has to stop Kyle Pitts twice a year. Maybe he’s losing sleep if he has to stop Waddle twice a year. Maybe Ja’Marr Chase.

That’s who Miami needs to be drafting with the sixth pick. Someone that will make a difference on the offense.
 

RG33

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My take on Sewell is this: Miami had Tunsil and did mostly nothing with him. Miami had Jake Long and did mostly nothing with him.

Elite, elite left tackles are a luxury item. You can win with an average left tackle. You can win with a below average tackle.

Bill Belichick isn’t losing sleep over how he can generate pressure vs Penei Sewell. He’s losing sleep if he has to stop Kyle Pitts twice a year. Maybe he’s losing sleep if he has to stop Waddle twice a year. Maybe Ja’Marr Chase.

That’s who Miami needs to be drafting with the sixth pick. Someone that will make a difference on the offense.
I agree with this post except for one thing.

Belichick does not lose sleep.
 

rymflaherty

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Mentioned this in the transaction thread - but does Miami even need an elite LT considering Tua is left handed? It would seem a great right tackle would be the priority, and that shouldn’t cost as much.

Not going to take credit for this thought, as it’s all over social media/Reddit...but crazy to think an ill advised gas mask bong was the catalyst for all of this.
 

ZMart100

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I don't see any reason Sewell can't play on the right side. Some players do have trouble switching sides, but it is more the exception than the rule.
 

tims4wins

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Mentioned this in the transaction thread - but does Miami even need an elite LT considering Tua is left handed? It would seem a great right tackle would be the priority, and that shouldn’t cost as much.

Not going to take credit for this thought, as it’s all over social media/Reddit...but crazy to think an ill advised gas mask bong was the catalyst for all of this.
Which is why, as I wrote in the other thread, that I think the Phins use 6 on Pitts, WR1, or maybe even a Parsons, and then draft tackle at 18 (Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker)
 

sodenj5

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My brain is narrowing the field to either Pitts or Waddle at this point.

There’s a possibility Atlanta takes Pitts at 4, but I think it’s far more likely that they take a QB or trade with someone that does. Bengals seem like a lock for Sewell or Chase. Rumor is Joe Burrow is pushing hard for Chase.

I think the trade back up means they don’t want to miss on a specific player and were willing to bypass an additional 1 next year to get them.

If you ask me who I take at 6 if they’re on the board, I sprint to the podium to take Pitts. I think that dude is going to be a superstar as soon as he touches an NFL field.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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My brain is narrowing the field to either Pitts or Waddle at this point.

There’s a possibility Atlanta takes Pitts at 4, but I think it’s far more likely that they take a QB or trade with someone that does. Bengals seem like a lock for Sewell or Chase. Rumor is Joe Burrow is pushing hard for Chase.

I think the trade back up means they don’t want to miss on a specific player and were willing to bypass an additional 1 next year to get them.

If you ask me who I take at 6 if they’re on the board, I sprint to the podium to take Pitts. I think that dude is going to be a superstar as soon as he touches an NFL field.
The Falcons going QB is wishful thinking. His new contract has $60m dead cap this season, $40m in dead cap next season and almost $16m the season after. Falcons arent wasting the first 3 years of a rookie QB contract on the bench.
 

sodenj5

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The Falcons going QB is wishful thinking. His new contract has $60m dead cap this season, $40m in dead cap next season and almost $16m the season after. Falcons arent wasting the first 3 years of a rookie QB contract on the bench.
Or they trade with someone that wants a QB, like I said. If they’re committed to Ryan the next few years, get a couple of extra picks and reload some of the roster.
 

sodenj5

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Been digesting the trade some more and I think that the trade up to 6 is a piece of strategic brilliance by Miami. Why? Because they still control the draft if the guy they want at 6 isn’t there.

Assume that Atlanta stays at 4 and takes Pitts. Cincy takes Chase. Fields and Mac Jones are on the board. Miami can now take calls from Carolina and Denver and recoup most of the value they lost when they traded up and still get a WR.

Carolina takes Fields. Detroit takes Sewell or even a WR, let’s say Waddle. Miami takes Smith at 8.

So even in a “Doomsday Scenario” Miami ends up with a WR. They have an extra 2023 first from SF. And let’s say they get a 2021 2nd and a 2022 3rd from Carolina. They’ve positioned themselves in a near no-lose situation.
 

rymflaherty

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I’m starting to worry that Chase and Pitts could go 4/5. I get the worst case then still being logical, but I’d feel a lot better if Atlanta just trades down to some team that wants to go QB.
 

sodenj5

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I’m starting to worry that Chase and Pitts could go 4/5. I get the worst case then still being logical, but I’d feel a lot better if Atlanta just trades down to some team that wants to go QB.
Atlanta definitely seems to be posturing like they’re seriously entertaining Pitts at 4. Pitts himself today said he’s had multiple meetings with Atlanta.

The smart thing for Atlanta would be to drop down a few slots and secure some extra draft capital and let Carolina or Denver or NE take a QB. The interest in Pitts is maybe trying to leverage some more draft capital from a team.

I would be a little bummed if Pitts and Chase go 4/5, but again Miami is likely trading out at that point and taking Waddle or Smith at 8 or 9.

As we stand today, my personal preference in order would be Pitts, Chase, Waddle, Smith.
 

BigSoxFan

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Atlanta definitely seems to be posturing like they’re seriously entertaining Pitts at 4. Pitts himself today said he’s had multiple meetings with Atlanta.

The smart thing for Atlanta would be to drop down a few slots and secure some extra draft capital and let Carolina or Denver or NE take a QB. The interest in Pitts is maybe trying to leverage some more draft capital from a team.

I would be a little bummed if Pitts and Chase go 4/5, but again Miami is likely trading out at that point and taking Waddle or Smith at 8 or 9.

As we stand today, my personal preference in order would be Pitts, Chase, Waddle, Smith.
Would you rather have Chase or Waddle and a 3rd?
 

BigSoxFan

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Waddle and a third. Waddle and Chase are basically a coin flip for me and Waddle’s speed might fit what Miami needs better anyways.
That’s what I was thinking because if a QB is there 6, and one likely will be, you’ll be picking up a 3rd from Carolina or Denver to move down a couple spots. Solid value play. I love Waddle’s fit for Miami.
 

rymflaherty

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I’d rather have Chase than Waddle and a 3rd, and it wouldn’t be particularly close.
I’d rather Waddle than Smith, but at that point a best case to me might be an Elite tackle still being there and hope to capitalize on a deep receiver class later (potentially #18)

edit* - adding a bit of context to my statement -A guy like Waddle may have some individual attributes that are more impressive than Chase, but it’s tough to come up with a single negative for Chase...and it’s rare that you can say that, and that’s the kind of guy I want if I’m going to use a top 10 pick on a WR.
 
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sodenj5

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I’d rather have Chase than Waddle and a 3rd, and it wouldn’t be particularly close.
I’d rather Waddle than Smith, but at that point a best case to me might be an Elite tackle still being there and hope to capitalize on a deep receiver class later (potentially #18)

edit* - adding a bit of context to my statement -A guy like Waddle may have some individual attributes that are more impressive than Chase, but it’s tough to come up with a single negative for Chase...and it’s rare that you can say that, and that’s the kind of guy I want if I’m going to use a top 10 pick on a WR.
To me, Chase is kind of in a weird spot. He’s basically a smaller version of DeVante Parker. He plays big, but he’s six foot even. People say he’s AJ Brown or faster Anquon Bolden. That’s cool. But I don’t know if that skill set fits what Miami needs particularly well.

At least Waddle brings something unique to the table.Speed and YAC ability for days. And he has pretty good deep ball skills for a smaller guy. He doesn’t just run under the ball and hope for the best. He actually wins some contested catches.

I would be fine with Chase. Guy was the best receiver in college football at 19. There’s a lot of talent there. But I don’t think he’s head and shoulders better than Waddle or Smith. I think Pitts is head and shoulders above all the receivers at this point.
 

ehaz

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Tackle is so deep. I think MIA goes for a unicorn guy like Pitts or Waddle. I'm on the Waddle over Chase train - elite Tyreek-like speed guys who have contested catch skills and sophisticated route-running ability don't come around often. You can still get a Teven Jenkins or Vera-Tucker at 18. Or if you're really in love with Sewell, you can maybe get Chase-lite in Bateman at #18.
 

sodenj5

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Tackle is so deep. I think MIA goes for a unicorn guy like Pitts or Waddle. I'm on the Waddle over Chase train - elite Tyreek-like speed guys who have contested catch skills and sophisticated route-running ability don't come around often. You can still get a Teven Jenkins or Vera-Tucker at 18. Or if you're really in love with Sewell, you can maybe get Chase-lite in Bateman at #18.
I think tackle is definitely sneaky deep this year. I could 100% see Miami trying to grab either a tackle or a center/guard in round 2. Seems to be the sweet spot to get someone like Landon Dickerson or Creed Humphrey.

Miami also has to come away with one of the first three RBs. I would be totally fine with Najee at 18 or Javonte in round 2. McShay’s latest mock has Miami missing on all 3 RBs, all three of them going between 18 and their first second rounder. That’s borderline catastrophic and why I think Miami goes RB at 18 if Najee is there.
 

rymflaherty

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Happened to listen to the Athletic/Mays podcast on pass catchers, and it was a sobering discussion...

To sum it up, they theorized that these last two receiver classes weren’t unusually deep or talented, but rather a sign of a new normal due to the proliferation of the passing game across all levels.

Also that none of the receivers are truly special, and a guy you’d want to invest a top 10 type pick on. And it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Bateman is the best receiver in the class and 2nd or 3rd round guys outperform the top 3.

The exception to this being Pitts, who they said was the best non QB in the draft.
Listening to that was a bit of a bummer, as I had been approaching the trade back as a no lose type situation and this sort of burst my idealized view of that.
 

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sodenj5

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Happened to listen to the Athletic/Mays podcast on pass catchers, and it was a sobering discussion...

To sum it up, they theorized that these last two receiver classes weren’t unusually deep or talented, but rather a sign of a new normal due to the proliferation of the passing game across all levels.

Also that none of the receivers are truly special, and a guy you’d want to invest a top 10 type pick on. And it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Bateman is the best receiver in the class and 2nd or 3rd round guys outperform the top 3.

The exception to this being Pitts, who they said was the best non QB in the draft.
Listening to that was a bit of a bummer, as I had been approaching the trade back as a no lose type situation and this sort of burst my idealized view of that.
I agree. I don’t think Chase is a bad player but I also don’t think he’s a generational talent. I see AJ Brown.
Waddle is maybe a better version of Ruggs from last year. And Smith is a complete physical outlier you’re betting can continue to outperform his physical profile.

I’m obviously thrilled if Pitts is there at 6, and if they take Chase I understand taking a flyer on a kid that tore up the SEC as a 19 year old. Apart from that I don’t see a huge gap.

I think the trade down looked a lot smarter before there was buzz of Pitts to Atlanta. Still hoping for a trade down for them because I think Cincy goes Chase or Sewell.
 

mauf

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No fan base has ever rioted because their team failed to draft an offensive lineman with a high pick, but Cincinnati fans might be the first to do so if the Bengals don’t take Sewell.

So if the Falcons trade #4 to someone who takes Trey Lance, the Dolphins probably get their pick of Pitts/Chase/Waddle. Worst case, only one of those three is gone. (If two of them are gone, then Lance is still there and Miami trades down, which is a good result too.)
 

mauf

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Happened to listen to the Athletic/Mays podcast on pass catchers, and it was a sobering discussion...

To sum it up, they theorized that these last two receiver classes weren’t unusually deep or talented, but rather a sign of a new normal due to the proliferation of the passing game across all levels.

Also that none of the receivers are truly special, and a guy you’d want to invest a top 10 type pick on. And it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Bateman is the best receiver in the class and 2nd or 3rd round guys outperform the top 3.

The exception to this being Pitts, who they said was the best non QB in the draft.
Listening to that was a bit of a bummer, as I had been approaching the trade back as a no lose type situation and this sort of burst my idealized view of that.
I think this is right. Even if it’s a little overstated (a couple WRs should go in the first 10 picks), it would be crazy for a team like Cincy that desperately needs line help to pass on a twice-a-decade LT prospect like Sewell to take a receiver.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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No fan base has ever rioted because their team failed to draft an offensive lineman with a high pick, but Cincinnati fans might be the first to do so if the Bengals don’t take Sewell.

So if the Falcons trade #4 to someone who takes Trey Lance, the Dolphins probably get their pick of Pitts/Chase/Waddle. Worst case, only one of those three is gone. (If two of them are gone, then Lance is still there and Miami trades down, which is a good result too.)
I think they should take Sewell, but taking someone like Chase isnt out of the realm of possibility either.

Burrows has chemistry with Chase, and a Burrows-Chase-Boyd-Mixon skill core is an incredible foundation.

Burrows needs protection, but teams win SBs without elite tackles all the time. Some of the best tackles in history were on perennial losers. I dont think the Cinci fans would be lining up on a bridge if they drafted Chase (or Pitts, for that matter).
 

sodenj5

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I think they should take Sewell, but taking someone like Chase isnt out of the realm of possibility either.

Burrows has chemistry with Chase, and a Burrows-Chase-Boyd-Mixon skill core is an incredible foundation.

Burrows needs protection, but teams win SBs without elite tackles all the time. Some of the best tackles in history were on perennial losers. I dont think the Cinci fans would be lining up on a bridge if they drafted Chase (or Pitts, for that matter).
It feels very much like the largest threat to Pitts is Atlanta. Cincy takes Sewell or Chase. I’m fairly confident of that. Either get an elite LT talent or get Burrow his LSU running mate.

If Atlanta trades out I’m popping champagne.
 

koufax32

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I think they should take Sewell, but taking someone like Chase isnt out of the realm of possibility either.

Burrows has chemistry with Chase, and a Burrows-Chase-Boyd-Mixon skill core is an incredible foundation.

Burrows needs protection, but teams win SBs without elite tackles all the time. Some of the best tackles in history were on perennial losers. I dont think the Cinci fans would be lining up on a bridge if they drafted Chase (or Pitts, for that matter).
Drafting a stud T also helps Mixon which in turn helps Burriow.

That of course means Cincy will draft a DG at 5.
 

rymflaherty

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I think this is right. Even if it’s a little overstated (a couple WRs should go in the first 10 picks), it would be crazy for a team like Cincy that desperately needs line help to pass on a twice-a-decade LT prospect like Sewell to take a receiver.
The Cincy pick was a large part of the discussion. Some of the other arguments for tackle over receiver, which seem logical, were the hit rate of high picks and the idea that you can build a receiver group that compliments each other, where as you can’t hide a tackle or have a specialist at the position.

After my post I started to see all the trade back down rumor articles. If true, I can’t help but connect the dots and think the target was Pitts and things have gone sideways. Hopefully things still do break the right way, if not, I suppose the latest reports are encouraging, as it seems like they are setting up multiple options to maximize value instead of panicking.