Do you think the Sox will acquire Scherzer in the 2021 season?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Lots of Max mentions in the Trade Deadline threads. Do you think this will happen?

I wish the board allowed 11 options, but I think the ones at the bottom of the list are sufficient

Poll closes at the deadline.

edit: clarified the question. Do you think he is coming? The Trade Deadline threads are full of positivity on this happening but I am not seeing that in this poll, yet.

 

[BornToRun]

Went 15% by reasoning of “you never know” but I would be shocked. I don’t see it happening. Give me Trea Turner somehow.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'm near the bottom, too. Waiting for all the folks who are proposing those trades to show up and vote.

 

[Apisith]

I voted no chance because it doesn't look like Bloom and ownership are ready to go over the limit this year. It might be more appropriate to go over the limit for 2-3 seasons in a row when we've opened up a contending window. I'm still not sure whether we're getting a lot of over performance (Hernandez, entire bullpen) which won't be repeated next year or whether what we have is legit and therefore we're in a contending window right now (if yes, go over the limit).

 

[LogansDad]

I said 0%, but because I think that Scherzer is going to be one of the most valuable commodities available (DUH) at the deadline, and I don't think it is in Bloom's long term plans to try to match what other teams are going to be willing to give up... even if he could.

 

[ZMart100]

I said 30% because I thought the question was what are the odds they could get him if they tried. Much lower if the question is what are the odds they will try and succeed.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The question is: do you think the Sox will acquire him. I will clarify above

 

[Archer1979]

Cross-thread posting as it seems more relevant to this discussion, but my vote is No Chance in Hell:

My take is that they're not going to get any player that Tampa Bay wants. The simple reality is that Tampa's system is stronger and deeper than the Sox's. Tampa can beat any offer that Chaim puts on the table for Scherzer and still not deplete its farm system. Chaim would have to go full-Dombrowski and, even then, still come up short.

Chaim's best approach is drive up the price on Scherzer and then have a secondary attainable target(s) in his hip pocket.

 

[JimD]

I voted 30% on the off chance that Nats GM Mike Rizzo overplays his hand and Bloom is able to get Scherzer for less than the perceived going rate. But otherwise, no, I don't see the Red Sox paying the talent capital that will likely be required to get Max.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Cross-thread posting as it seems more relevant to this discussion, but my vote is No Chance in Hell:

My take is that they're not going to get any player that Tampa Bay wants. The simple reality is that Tampa's system is stronger and deeper than the Sox's. Tampa can beat any offer that Chaim puts on the table for Scherzer and still not deplete its farm system. Chaim would have to go full-Dombrowski and, even then, still come up short.

Chaim's best approach is drive up the price on Scherzer and then have a secondary attainable target(s) in his hip pocket.

There is the matter of Max having to waive his no-trade rights. If he really wants to pitch on the south side of Chicago, for example, that is a factor in any potential trade scenario.

Addendum: There are rumblings now that he prefers the West Coast.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Drive up the price for the Rays and then go for Berrios.

 

[grimshaw]

I'd say 2%. The only angle I can see is if Bloom doesn't have full autonomy. Bringing in a Hall of Fame talent is a huge ratings grab. But I don't think that's how ownership operates anymore now that Lucky is out of the picture.

He wouldn't completely drain the system, but they would have to pay more than any dumb trade simulator.

 

[beautokyo]

I said 30% just for the reason if the Sawx want to go for it or not this year. No one knows the future but it would sure be nice. Send Richards back as part of the deal but then again.....It's going to be where "He" wants to go. I have no idea about his feeling for Boston or anything else....wish I was more of a stalker and could be that fly on the wall.

 

[Saints Rest]

I voted 0% for any of the same reasons noted above (price too high; not Chaim's mandate; Tampa; Scherzer's wishes) but also believe that Chaim will look at this month and say "my wish list includes a high-quality SP and Chris Sale will check that box; now onto the next item(s) on my list." So the only way I see the Sox even going after Scherzer in any real way is if Sale . . . (I won't even write the words).

 

[OCD SS]

Drive up the price for the Rays and then go for Berrios.

Sure, but really Berríos fits the Rays acquisition strategy much more. Scherzer is still a rental, and I don’t see the Rays giving up their best prospects even for him; it’s not like anyone can expect to sign him long term…

 

[Archer1979]

Sure, but really Berríos fits the Rays acquisition strategy much more. Scherzer is still a rental, and I don’t see the Rays giving up their best prospects even for him; it’s not like anyone can expect to sign him long term…

Wouldn't you think that the Rays would be more inclined to overspend in prospects considering how close they are? Also, that they've never won it before and are looking at the Bucs and the Lightning both being champs of their respective leagues. I'd have to say that there is some incentive there for them to go for it now.

 

[pedro1918]

I rarely believe there is a zero chance for anything so I went 15%. I think it's closer to 1%.

 

[OCD SS]

Wouldn't you think that the Rays would be more inclined to overspend in prospects considering how close they are? Also, that they've never won it before and are looking at the Bucs and the Lightning both being champs of their respective leagues. I'd have to say that there is some incentive there for them to go for it now.

We’ll KG did mention that teams are now looking at how players will help them in the playoffs, and aren’t just worried about getting there in the last Effectively Wild… still, not sure that I see them diverging from their regular habits and compromising their regular season profitability based on cheap roster churn to move into GFIN mode…

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Sizable grains of salt as always, but...

View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1420015032167960585

 

[jose melendez]

Sizable grains of salt as always, but...

View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1420015032167960585

Isn't this the last year on his contract? Why would he care then?

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Outside looking in, Boston needs offense at 1b and an extra arm more than they need another starter. For all intents and purposes, the Sox are in the playoffs so what's gonna help them the most to get through the first two rounds? I would argue they need to shorten the game with another bullpen arm, add a quality 1b, and probably gamble with Sale. If you guys go for Max, you're gonna have to really empty out to get the rest of what you need and is it worth it to do that this year for a rental knowing that all 3 of those pieces aren't likely to be help much in 2022?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I voted 15%. I don't think it's going to happen, but Chaim has to at least throw his hat in the ring and see what happens. Mark Feinsend says Scherzer's preference is to go out west, so this all may be a moot point.

 

[chawson]

50%. I think the question is more like, Where will Scherzer choose to go? rather than Which team will acquire him? That’s hard to guess at. I can imagine Scherzer the person (and his fairly outspoken wife) preferring a city like Boston over Tampa for cultural reasons, with a better chance to build his legacy and very strong HoF case. Hopefully that’s true of Houston too. It’s hard to rule out the Dodgers with these sorts of things, but I’m not sure they can extend Scherzer and re-sign Kershaw or Seager while not exceeding the tax a third year (pending new CBT). [Edit: Moot if this west coast stuff is true.]

There’s a good chance Scherzer costs less in prospects than frontline guys like Márquez, Castillo and Alcantara because of his age and salary, and because he’s able to influence where he goes. It seems logical that he’d only approve a trade somewhere if he can envision signing an extension there.

Getting a short-window ace in hand for 2-3 years at the cost of mostly money helps our offseason considerably. We won’t have to wait on the Klubers or Odorizzis or Mortons or Gausmans to sign before we can proceed with our roster-building, and it frees up more of our prospects for trades.

I voted no chance because it doesn't look like Bloom and ownership are ready to go over the limit this year. It might be more appropriate to go over the limit for 2-3 seasons in a row when we've opened up a contending window. I'm still not sure whether we're getting a lot of over performance (Hernandez, entire bullpen) which won't be repeated next year or whether what we have is legit and therefore we're in a contending window right now (if yes, go over the limit).

I don’t get this. There was a lot of stuff said to temper expectations last winter but our contending window is now. Our four best position players have contracts guaranteed through this season (JDM), two through next season (Bogaerts and Hernandez) and 2023 (Devers). Our best pitchers (Rodríguez and Eovaldi) are under contracts expiring this season and next, and our notional ace (Sale) is a shaky bet to remain an ace as he nears 35. There’s a flood of prospects on the way, but they’re no lock to be immediately good, and we’ll lose some if we don’t consolidate.

Meanwhile, the Yankees suck. I think we’re underestimating the crisis they’re in. Their farm system, ranked #20 or so at the start of the year, is headed by a Rookie League outfielder with a 2025 ETA and a 5’ 9” starter who took a major step back this year. The Rays will be good if financially constrained and the Jays’ sour luck might’ve blown their chance this year.

 

[Twalk]

I went with 100% yes because someone had to. The yang to 0% ying. In reality, i'd be crushed to see the farm take a hit, hope its 0% and Sale settles any need for a max offer for a short-term rental.

 

[bankshot1]

I went with slim over none.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Outside looking in, Boston needs offense at 1b and an extra arm more than they need another starter. For all intents and purposes, the Sox are in the playoffs so what's gonna help them the most to get through the first two rounds? I would argue they need to shorten the game with another bullpen arm, add a quality 1b, and probably gamble with Sale. If you guys go for Max, you're gonna have to really empty out to get the rest of what you need and is it worth it to do that this year for a rental knowing that all 3 of those pieces aren't likely to be help much in 2022?

I think a starter is more important in the playoffs. First of all, there's no point in having to pull someone after 4 innings down 4-0 against the opponent's better starter. Secondly - playoff bullpens include starters so there's a small bump in availability.

Maybe it's the traditionalist in me, but I still believe playoffs are won by pitching.

 

[amRadio]

I think there are multiple teams who are interested who can outbid Boston, also I think there was a report he is more likely to waive his no-trade for a team on the west coast. So, I'll go with 0% on this one. Doesn't seem like a fit on any level.

 

[sean1562]

Outside looking in, Boston needs offense at 1b and an extra arm more than they need another starter. For all intents and purposes, the Sox are in the playoffs so what's gonna help them the most to get through the first two rounds? I would argue they need to shorten the game with another bullpen arm, add a quality 1b, and probably gamble with Sale. If you guys go for Max, you're gonna have to really empty out to get the rest of what you need and is it worth it to do that this year for a rental knowing that all 3 of those pieces aren't likely to be help much in 2022?

Maybe thats just code for "I think I am the last piece of the puzzle on the three California teams. Rizzo, talk to them and try to get a deal done." He probably has a great relationship with the front office and all of those teams can probably offer solid packages if they are interested.

 

[mikeot]

I'm a Nats fan just waking up to this sad reality. That said, I'm somewhat down with this LA/DC scenario from The Athletic's Bowden:

"Dodgers get: A slam dunk future Hall of Famer," while the Nats get: Ryan Pepiot, 23 "... the Dodgers’ third-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Butler. His fastball is mostly 92 to 95 mph. His changeup is one of the best in the minor leagues;" and Diego Cartaya, 19,"...one of the top catching prospects in the minors."

Let the retooling begin. Highly unlikely the BoSox play any role in this scenario IMHO.


.

 

[RobertS975]

An October rotation of Scherzer, Eovoldi, Sale and ERod sounds pretty powerful assuming Sale proves out and ERod takes his migraine medicine!

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I think a starter is more important in the playoffs. First of all, there's no point in having to pull someone after 4 innings down 4-0 against the opponent's better starter. Secondly - playoff bullpens include starters so there's a small bump in availability.

Maybe it's the traditionalist in me, but I still believe playoffs are won by pitching.

I'm with ya. I'd take Scherzer over a bullpen arm, even with the higher price tag. You potentially roll out the best rotation in the playoffs if Sale is healthy. You could even throw Eovaldi in the pen in a short series and let him pitch 2-3-4 innings at a time.

Now, do I think the Sox will outbid everyone for a few months of Scherzer? No. But it is fun to think about.

 

[mikeot]

What's in it for the Nats, fellas? Mad Max is a beloved icon, not only by fans but by the Lerner family ownership. They ain't gonna just give him away. What can the Sox offer? Asking for a franchise.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Will it happen? Most likely no, but the Sox should push for him. What a huge add that would be, in addition to Sale coming back soon.

 

[tims4wins]

If they were to acquire Scherzer, I wonder if they would consider employing Sale out of the pen just for the remainder of this year.

 

[Al Zarilla]

If they were to acquire Scherzer, I wonder if they would consider employing Sale out of the pen just for the remainder of this year.

They've already said Sale will be a starting pitcher, haven't they? I think it was to quell some questions that were going on about his usage. If if if they got Scherzer, might they hedge? That's probably what you were thinking.

 

[nvalvo]

I would guess Scherzer is headed to San Francisco, probably for a package built around Joey Bart.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I would guess Scherzer is headed to San Francisco, probably for a package built around Joey Bart.

Giants are at the top in mlb team ERA with the Dodgers, but without an ace. Is that it, get an ace to start each playoff series they make it to? And do other great things. Like a prime Bumgarner.

 

[cantor44]

WEEI reporting Sox in on Scherzer ....
I still take a starter over a reliever, because you can then move Pivetta or Perez to the pen and bolster things there (plus the pen is already good).
I mean godDAMN a rotation with Sale back and Scherzer or Berrios and Eovaldi (!!!) .... marginal upgrade at first ... and suddenly a rebuilding season becomes a they-are-as-good-as-anyone-and-could-win-it-all season ... (health provided)

 

[Bergs]

I would be very, very surprised. I went with 15%.

 

[The Raccoon]

I would be very, very surprised. I went with 15%.

Same for me. And if there had been a 5% option, I would have chosen that one.
I think the only way this could work is Scherzer actively blockig trades to other teams, because I expect SF, LA, maybe TB (and others) to be willing to invest more than the Red Sox for half e season of Scherzer. So if he really wants to pitch here and maybe is wiling to sign a new contract, there is a chance, but I def. don't get my hopes up.

I hope Sale coming back strong + good performances by Houck is enough boost to the SP. 1B is the only real position of need and I don't expect Chaim to break the bank for any other position if it isn't also a long-term upgrade.

 

[Brianish]

I went with 30%. If you put a gun to my head, it's probably more likely 15%, but we don't have a lot of data on how Chaim behaves in this specific situation (team in contention, prospects to trade, has money available, etc). So I jumped up a tier to account for the uncertainty.

I think the real problem is that it will be much easier to upgrade at 1b, though.

 

[loshjott]

I would guess Scherzer is headed to San Francisco, probably for a package built around Joey Bart.

Rosenthal reporting in the Athletic that Scherzer wants to go to a west coast contender, so this could work. Unlikely to go to Boston, IMO.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

My internal probability calculator says 30% chance he is traded at all, and then IF he is traded, 5-10% chance it’s to Boston. So 1.5% to 3% chance we acquire him.

 

[DJnVa]

Seems like he's focused more on the west coast teams, and I would imagine his relationship with the Nats is good enough that if offer from SF/LA/SD is comparable to a potential Sox offer, they'll ship him to California.

 

[chawson]

My internal probability calculator says 30% chance he is traded at all, and then IF he is traded, 5-10% chance it’s to Boston. So 1.5% to 3% chance we acquire him.

Reports from this morning quote Nats’ ownership saying he “will be moved” by the deadline, and probably by tonight, so 30% seems low.

 

[bosockboy]

They may need to trade him for bodies to field a team.

View: https://twitter.com/dougherty_jesse/status/1420503026197016576?s=21

 

[jon abbey]

Only 4 of those 12 were players, the other 8 team personnel.