Do you think the Red Sox interest in Juan Soto is genuine?

[Brianish]

If the reports that the Sox have raised their bid are true, I'm prepared to change my vote. My initial logic was this: Everyone knew that getting Soto would mean trying to keep up with the Mets. I also read the campaign to woo him as an attempt to avoid precisely that bidding war, and thus didn't take their attempt seriously. That they are now apparently doing *both* is enough to me to return to them the benefit of the doubt.

I do wonder if this sudden willingness to spend huge money stems from a calculation that the next CBA will make substantial changes to the Luxury Tax numbers and process - maybe in response to the Dodgers' shenanigans. Unless I'm mistaken, we're due for a new agreement after 2026, which is exactly when the three-year penalties would set in.

Or it could just be about a genuine unicorn becoming available.

 

[OCD SS]

We now have 4 teams going over $700M. Soto may be a unicorn, but I don’t think that he’s that much better than other players.

What should that tell us about MLB’s finances and how much other players are getting paid?

 

[sezwho]

We now have 4 teams going over $700M. Soto may be a unicorn, but I don’t think that he’s that much better than other players.

What should that tell us about MLB’s finances and how much other players are getting paid?

Something really weird. I have no idea why the Sox have been getting outbid for non-elite pitching and hitting year after year (they also got beat for elite pitching), but suddenly have the stones to bank 50mm/yr on a hitter for 1.5 decades?

Yes he is young and good, but that level of commitment is stupid. Guy gets arthritis and Henry will feel forced to tank the remaining decade.

Can’t. Process.

 

[simplicio]

Non-elite pitching and hitting is replaceable, Juan Soto is not.

 

[Devizier]

Something really weird. I have no idea why the Sox have been getting outbid for non-elite pitching and hitting year after year (they also got beat for elite pitching), but suddenly have the stones to bank 50mm/yr on a hitter for 1.5 decades?

I mean it’s pretty easy, they didn’t think those guys were worth it. They also ponied up for non-elite hitting in Story and Yoshida, and the results of those signings support that hypothesis.

 

[sezwho]

I mean it’s pretty easy, they didn’t think those guys were worth it. They also ponied up for non-elite hitting in Story and Yoshida, and the results of those signings support that hypothesis.

Yeah and they were really wrong and we lost. They could have put a winner out for reasonable money but now will break the bank. I mean I do get it it’s just the proportion is all wrong

 

[sezwho]

Non-elite pitching and hitting is replaceable, Juan Soto is not.

Don’t think it looked replaceable the last couple years. Sorry if this is that throw away post the Dopes warned about. I’ll be better…

 

[geoflin]

Not sure how some think that Sox interest isn't genuine unless you disregard multiple reports that they've offered at least $700M and are still among the 5 teams negotiating.
Unless you think that the only team with genuine interest is the Mets because they supposedly offered to beat any offer by $50M. In which case nobody else was really interested.

 

[Max Power]

We now have 4 teams going over $700M. Soto may be a unicorn, but I don’t think that he’s that much better than other players.

The only metric by which he's better than other players is age. He's never led the league in OPS in a full season. He's not much on the bases. He's not anything to write home about on defense. You're banking on his decline being very far away and the potential for him to improve in his late 20s. But this contract means you're paying a premium for those nearly guaranteed productive years and also paying for the decline years.

 

[EddieYost]

Power and batting eye generally age well, no? I think he’s exactly the guy you go all in on.

 

[YTF]

Power and batting eye generally age well, no? I think he’s exactly the guy you go all in on.

Do they? I mean how many good players seem to lose one, the other or both in their mid 30s?

 

[snowmanny]

I am pretty sure they wanted to sign Soto. And made a real offer within a range that might have been accepted.

Now, I keep hearing that the Red Sox will not sign a pitcher over 30 to a big money long-term contract. Yet they have met with reps for Fried and Burnes. And we know that signing either of those 30 year olds will take years and an overpay. Are they serious with those?

 

[Bongorific]

Genuine? Sure. Realistic? No.

It was striking to me in the Netflix doc that Henry just seems old now. Since, and including Mookie, he reminds me of the owner in Rookie of the Year.


As with Yamamoto, I think they are genuine in wanting to sign top talent but are shocked at the cost and won’t do it.

 

[jbupstate]

Who wasn’t shocked with Yamamoto?

And $800m for Soto? Clown shoes

 

[Auger34]

The Sox interest in YY was performative. They completely misread the market.

the Sox had legit interest in Soto. Unfortunately so did Cohen and he wasn’t going to be denied

 

[BigSoxFan]

The Sox interest in YY was performative. They completely misread the market.

the Sox had legit interest in Soto. Unfortunately so did Cohen and he wasn’t going to be denied

Yup. And if the 16/760 Yankees offer is legit, then Cohen basically just changed which NY team got him.

 

[simplicio]

The Sox interest in YY was performative. They completely misread the market.

They offered YY $300m, same as the Yankees, and his New York trip was about getting a bigger number from Cohen to take back to LA.

 

[Auger34]

They offered YY $300m, same as the Yankees, and his New York trip was about getting a bigger number from Cohen to take back to LA.

the source on this is SI through Bob Nightengale. Bob Nightengale is an idiot. If he said the Sox made a shit offer he would be completely ignored and mocked.

To make this short, I don’t give two shits what Nightengale says. He’s a joke. If you have a link from someone legitimate I would love to see it

 

[simplicio]

the source on this is SI through Bob Nightengale. Bob Nightengale is an idiot. If he said the Sox made a shit offer he would be completely ignored and mocked.

To make this short, I don’t give two shits what Nightengale says. He’s a joke. If you have a link from someone legitimate I would love to see it

McAdam also reported it in a Soto article last month:
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/making-sense-of-the-reported-red-sox-juan-soto-meeting-sean-mcadam.html

No sourcing though.

 

[Auger34]

McAdam also reported it in a Soto article last month:
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/making-sense-of-the-reported-red-sox-juan-soto-meeting-sean-mcadam.html

No sourcing though.

nothing about YY in that article. That’s what I said was performative that you disagreed with

 

[simplicio]

nothing about YY in that article. That’s what I said was performative that you disagreed with

Yes there is:


Don’t discount the age factor.

In the last six years, the Red Sox have been willing to pay two players deals worth $300 million or more: Rafael Devers inked to an 10-year, $313.5 million contract and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for whom they unsuccessfully bid $300 million. Know what they had in common? Youth. Devers was 26 at the time while Yamamoto was 25.

Soto just turned 26 last month, which means he could sign a 14-year deal soon and not reach 40 until the very tail end of the contract.

The Red Sox are big into actuarial tables. They don’t want to be committed to a lengthy contract to a player who is nearing the end of his prime. Soto has four full seasons to play before turning 30, and that could be a key factor in their willingness to go a financial neighborhood they’ve never before visited.

 

[sezwho]

Yes there is:


Don’t discount the age factor.

In the last six years, the Red Sox have been willing to pay two players deals worth $300 million or more: Rafael Devers inked to an 10-year, $313.5 million contract and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for whom they unsuccessfully bid $300 million. Know what they had in common? Youth. Devers was 26 at the time while Yamamoto was 25.

Soto just turned 26 last month, which means he could sign a 14-year deal soon and not reach 40 until the very tail end of the contract.

The Red Sox are big into actuarial tables. They don’t want to be committed to a lengthy contract to a player who is nearing the end of his prime. Soto has four full seasons to play before turning 30, and that could be a key factor in their willingness to go a financial neighborhood they’ve never before visited.

I’m not a reporter but ive been calling bullshit on this McAdam report and still do. He’s getting played now and he didn’t have it at the time…YY was never real.

 

[simplicio]

Okay enjoy your vibes I guess?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

So after all is said and done, I'm kind of going back to my original thoughts on the matter.

Making a $700 million offer to Soto was legitimate interest. But being outbid by an additional $65 million kind of negates that legitimacy just a little bit, as absurd as it is to say. At the end of the day the money gap meant they were not serious candidates to sign him. They were willing to take Soto to homecoming but not to the prom.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

After Soto, I hope the Sox understand that premier free agents want one of two things, and preferably both:

- the most money, and the more the better

and/or

- an extremely good chance at winning a World Series.

The Mets could offer Soto both; they have a hojillion dollars and made the NLCS this year. The Yankees could offer both as well, they also have a hojillion dollars and made the World Series last year. The Red Sox have neither: they neither made the highest offer NOR were a good team this year or any of the last 3.

If you're not offering a player the chance at winning a World Series then generally you have to make up for that by making BY FAR the highest offer. I can respect the Sox making a $700 million offer while also saying it wasn't competitive with the Mets or the Yankees in the long run.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

After Soto, I hope the Sox understand that premier free agents want one of two things, and preferably both:

- the most money, and the more the better

and/or

- an extremely good chance at winning a World Series.

The Mets could offer Soto both; they have a hojillion dollars and made the NLCS this year. The Yankees could offer both as well, they also have a hojillion dollars and made the World Series last year. The Red Sox have neither: they neither made the highest offer NOR were a good team this year or any of the last 3.

If you're not offering a player the chance at winning a World Series then generally you have to make up for that by making BY FAR the highest offer. I can respect the Sox making a $700 million offer while also saying it wasn't competitive with the Mets or the Yankees in the long run.

Agreed- the Sox will have to pay top dollar, especially to land a big name FA pitcher, considering they had the second most errors in baseball last year, second highest offensive park factor in baseball over the last 3 years, averaging 79 wins over the last 3 years, and a bad defensive primary catcher.
How much of a surcharge does that create?

 

[OCD SS]

So after all is said and done, I'm kind of going back to my original thoughts on the matter.

Making a $700 million offer to Soto was legitimate interest. But being outbid by an additional $65 million kind of negates that legitimacy just a little bit, as absurd as it is to say. At the end of the day the money gap meant they were not serious candidates to sign him. They were willing to take Soto to homecoming but not to the prom.

But that difference was probably covered by the difference in taxes, right? [/trolling]

 

[Van Everyman]

At the end of the day the money gap meant they were not serious candidates to sign him.

Are people actually arguing that the only conditions under which Sox should have been in this bidding process were if they were committed to beating Cohen at any price?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Are people actually arguing that the only conditions under which Sox should have been in this bidding process were if they were committed to beating Cohen at any price?

Hey, it's not my money.

As I said, I'm of two minds on this. $700 million is a serious offer. Coming up $65 million short shows they were never in the ballpark. Behold the contradictions of the modern game.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Agreed- the Sox will have to pay top dollar, especially to land a big name FA pitcher, considering they had the second most errors in baseball last year, second highest offensive park factor in baseball over the last 3 years, averaging 79 wins over the last 3 years, and a bad defensive primary catcher.
How much of a surcharge does that create?

If Soto was any indication, I would throw out a guess that it would have taken an $800 million offer to overcome those issues you mention. So I guess a $40 million surcharge.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Of course they were “in the ballpark”. Negotiating with the player and seeing what it would take to sign him, and if an agreement could be made without being the highest monetary offer, is good business. Personally, I think an offer of the magnitude that they have been reported to make was beyond my comfort level, so not overly disappointed they “lost” here.

Don’t really think this was all for show, as in I don’t see how coming up short is of any benefit to the organization. The end result, not having Soto, is the same.

 

[chawson]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5980567/2024/12/09/juan-soto-steve-cohen-mets-free-agent/

Posted this in the news thread, seems relevant to this conversation too.

Such is Cohen’s reputation for getting what he wants. Last winter, when the Mets and Dodgers were vying for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Japanese pitcher, through his representatives, essentially told Cohen enough. Yamamoto wanted to play for the Dodgers and was satisfied with 12-year, $325 million offers, even though Cohen signaled he would go higher. With Soto, the ceiling for a contract appeared to be almost unlimited.

Cohen’s budget for Soto was “almost unlimited.” And Yamamoto was going to the Dodgers no matter what.

 

[Mooch]

Are people actually arguing that the only conditions under which Sox should have been in this bidding process were if they were committed to beating Cohen at any price?

Yes, several of us have said just that all along. This was the obvious outcome here.

 

[Mooch]

Of course they were “in the ballpark”. Negotiating with the player and seeing what it would take to sign him, and if an agreement could be made without being the highest monetary offer, is good business.

Can we unpack this a bit? Explain why this is "good business". If the goal is to sign a premiere free agent, I'm still struggling with the idea that (absent incumbancy) anything less than the highest monetary offer would get a player of Soto's caliber. Especially when he's represented by Boras. Is the idea that "nothing ventured, nothing gained"? If so, you may as well just say NOTHING GAINED because it never works that way. If the idea is that taking a "good run" at a top tier FA and coming up short somehow signals to the fans "hey, at least we tried"? Well, then we're back in the camp that the optics of the chase matter more than the outcome.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Can we unpack this a bit? Explain why this is "good business". If the goal is to sign a premiere free agent, I'm still struggling with the idea that (absent incumbancy) anything less than the highest monetary offer would get a player of Soto's caliber. Especially when he's represented by Boras. Is the idea that "nothing ventured, nothing gained"? If so, you may as well just say NOTHING GAINED because it never works that way. If the idea is that taking a "good run" at a top tier FA and coming up short somehow signals to the fans "hey, at least we tried"? Well, then we're back in the camp that the optics of the chase matter more than the outcome.

Well, I think making a pitch to Soto, finding out what important to him, trying to sell him on playing for his supposed favorite team as a kid, following the legacy of other great Boston LF is worthwhile….once they determined what the cost was and that the Mets weren’t going to be outbid, they probably could have tapped out and focused on other things, but there’s no harm in seeing if merely a record breaking deal of all time would get the job done. Agree that in the end, it doesn’t really matter, but you gotta shoot your shot, right?

 

[simplicio]

Can we unpack this a bit? Explain why this is "good business". If the goal is to sign a premiere free agent, I'm still struggling with the idea that (absent incumbancy) anything less than the highest monetary offer would get a player of Soto's caliber. Especially when he's represented by Boras. Is the idea that "nothing ventured, nothing gained"? If so, you may as well just say NOTHING GAINED because it never works that way. If the idea is that taking a "good run" at a top tier FA and coming up short somehow signals to the fans "hey, at least we tried"? Well, then we're back in the camp that the optics of the chase matter more than the outcome.

I don't give a shit what the fans think, but I think keeping a seat at the grownups table is useful optics for other players and agents. Boras also represents Burnes, among others, and now we've been in conversation with him for weeks instead of going in colder.

But the idea that they shouldn't be in on anyone unless they're willing to go full Cohen is absurd. They don't know when any other owner will tap out, they can only control their own best offer. Are you seriously advocating for just staying home and not playing at all cause Cohen might decide to beat you?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, I think making a pitch to Soto, finding out what important to him, trying to sell him on playing for his supposed favorite team as a kid, following the legacy of other great Boston LF is worthwhile….once they determined what the cost was and that the Mets weren’t going to be outbid, they probably could have tapped out and focused on other things, but there’s no harm in seeing if merely a record breaking deal of all time would get the job done. Agree that in the end, it doesn’t really matter, but you gotta shoot your shot, right?

It's worthwhile only in that in the long run the bolded things simply do not matter in modern free agency. The only two things that matter are 1) money, and 2) winning.

If the Sox were trying to give Soto the bolded in lieu of the extra $65 million he got from the Mets, then the negotiations were valuable in that they now know such things are worthless at the bargaining table.

I'm not mad about this: all experiences can be learning experiences. Hopefully Breslow has learned this lesson.

 

[Rusty13]

I’m not a reporter but ive been calling bullshit on this McAdam report and still do. He’s getting played now and he didn’t have it at the time…YY was never real.

Yeah, it's disappointing to see McAdam regurgitate the Nightengale reported YY "offer" that no one else corroborated. I would have thought he was better than that.

 

[Mooch]

I don't give a shit what the fans think, but I think keeping a seat at the grownups table is useful optics for other players and agents. Boras also represents Burnes, among others, and now we've been in conversation with him for weeks instead of going in colder.

But the idea that they shouldn't be in on anyone unless they're willing to go full Cohen is absurd. They don't know when any other owner will tap out, they can only control their own best offer. Are you seriously advocating for just staying home and not playing at all cause Cohen might decide to beat you?

Based on reports, the Sox didn't just get beat by Cohen's offer. The Yankees offered more as well.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

It's worthwhile only in that in the long run the bolded things simply do not matter in modern free agency. The only two things that matter are 1) money, and 2) winning.

If the Sox were trying to give Soto the bolded in lieu of the extra $65 million he got from the Mets, then the negotiations were valuable in that they now know such things are worthless at the bargaining table.

I'm not mad about this: all experiences can be learning experiences. Hopefully Breslow has learned this lesson.

Look at Varitek and Xander (the first time) and Altuve's extension. Maddux choosing Atlanta over NYY back in the day. Strasburg signing that extension to stay in DC. Some players make their decision based on factors other than top dollar. That was a long shot with Soto, but I don't think it was wrong to try that approach, since it appears the Mets' plan was to simply keep adding dollars to infinity. An emotional salespitch attached to a huge, but not top, dollar figure, was likely the only lane available to the Sox.

 

[Bigdogx]

Sox were always in the back seat on this deal and that's fine to me because it takes an owner with endless pockets to attain players like this today. I thought the Ohtani deal was insanity but this one of course takes the cake now. I could half understand Ohtani though as he is the clear cut number 1 guy in the entire sport and by the way pitches or can potential go back to pitching. Soto on the other hand is mainly just a good hitter who will now not have Judge sandwiched next to him, doesn't play the field at any gold glove level and doesn't have a great arm to throw guys out at the plate. Almost 800 million and 15 years for that guy is imo laughable but at the rate we are going this will probably look like a bargain in 5 years....

 

[simplicio]

Based on reports, the Sox didn't just get beat by Cohen's offer. The Yankees offered more as well.

Yes and?

 

[Mooch]

Yes and?

So it wasn't just "going full Cohen". It was getting into a bidding war with two deep pocketed owners and inevitably coming up short and relying on non-economic factors to somehow sway Soto. A tactic that was doomed to fail, as some of us on this very thread predicted. I think it's fair to ask, what was the point of all of that?

 

[simplicio]

Again, you don't know how far they're going to go until they've gone there. And it makes no sense not to play the game if he's a target you want.

A tactic that was doomed to fail, as some of us on this very thread predicted.

I'm starting to think this isn't about the Red Sox at all.

 

[lexrageorge]

The Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays failed just as badly as the Red Sox on this one. So either they all made serious and legitimate offers, or none of them did.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It's impossible to know without information that is never going to be public.
It also doesn't really matter, the proof that they are serious will be when the win one, until they do... why should anyone care if they were "in it" before finishing a distant 3rd. Until you win one there is never going to be any real way to know what you offerred, when and if it was a good faith effort you thought had a high likelihood of success. As to reporting... all of it comes from somewhere, and that somewhere always has an agenda that we won't know and can only guess.

 

[Van Everyman]

a distant 3rd

Fourth, I believe the Jays also offered something around $760M.

 

[OCD SS]

Maybe not: Sounds like it was under $700M.

…
As the pursuit of Soto intensified, the Blue Jays were often perceived to be among the most aggressive suitors for the 26-year-old free agent. Industry gossip about an offer as high as $760 million circulated Monday in the lobby of the Hilton Anatole, home to baseball’s Winter Meetings.

But that speculation seems to have been overblown and while the Blue Jays are believed to have had the authorization of ownership to go further for Soto, it appears that the front office held steady to their valuations as the final-day push by both the Mets and Yankees eliminated the other contenders.