Do you think the Red Sox interest in Juan Soto is genuine?
- Thread starter Sille Skrub
- Start date
You'd have been good with Breslow saying at the start of the FA season that they're not going to bother looking into anyone the Mets might pursue because Steve Cohen?
I think it's fair to question the legitimacy of the commitment by the Red Sox. Prior to 2013 they did a big overhaul during that off season even by the calendar now. Between off seasons 2015-2018 they made strategic additions that culminated in 2018. A number of those improvements were made early in the off seasons. Since 2018 their actions haven't reflected an earnest effort to replace departing players or improve upon existing players. That continues even this off season. Chapman arguably isn't replacement level of Jansen. If they make other changes where Chapman is a lights out middle reliever, maybe it works out.
Soto can't be the only signing, if they're really trying to win another title. Maybe it's different now than before, where key signings don't happen early in the off season anymore.
I'm oblivious and don't care about the financials. Does anyone have a viable link to the Red Sox financials? It's all guessing as to their intent. At this moment in December, based on their trends of signing players, they're not serious about another World Series. Maybe a flurry of signings and/or trades will revamp the lineup and I'll look even more stupid than I do now. I welcome that. I'm doubtful, though.
Soto can't be the only signing, if they're really trying to win another title. Maybe it's different now than before, where key signings don't happen early in the off season anymore.
I'm oblivious and don't care about the financials. Does anyone have a viable link to the Red Sox financials? It's all guessing as to their intent. At this moment in December, based on their trends of signing players, they're not serious about another World Series. Maybe a flurry of signings and/or trades will revamp the lineup and I'll look even more stupid than I do now. I welcome that. I'm doubtful, though.
This is where I am. The Sox were “legitimately trying” to resign Mookie for $300 million, when it was clear that was a low ball offer. The Sox were “legitimately interested” in Yamamoto, if Yamamoto was willing to take less than his market value for…reasons.
I’m cynical because the Red Sox have enough resources to not be the little brother team that clings to the delusion that “passionate fanbase” or “historic ballpark” or “look a former player will vouch for us” is a substitute for cold, hard cash.
Come on.
At this moment in December, no team has a trend of signing players. The offseason in baseball isn't for people who want all their shiny new toys by Pearl Harbor Day.
We really do need some kind of " they're seriously in but seriously aren't gonna pay what it takes" option. This whole time the look has been that they're trying to get "close enough" that Papi and ballpark factors and the tax rate and whatever else makes up the difference. But we're still waiting for clear evidence he's going to take anything other than the top bid.
Thank you. There are just as many relentlessly optimistic posters on here as there are negative ones. The need to constantly tell others to stop being so negative or bringing up the A’s or whatever is really fucking annoying
They pulled a lot of that last year with Yamamoto. I think their interest in Soto is way more serious for a couple of reasons.
I don't get how people can give Sam Kennedy the benefit of the doubt. Every offseason while season tickets are for sell, this team is "full throttle". In February anyone can tell the team isn't a playoff team. Been happening since Sam Kennedy has become CEO of Red Sox. Sam seems to relish in lying to the media and the fans.
I believe their interest to be genuine but not limitless. I think they could end up being the highest bidder for his services, but I don't think this means that they will. In fact, I think chances are they will not be the team that can or will go to the highest number to sign him. At a certain point, I can't fault the FO if they look at the AAV they'd give Soto and determine its better for them to allocate that same money to several players with the expectation that those players in aggregate will produce more wins than Soto alone. I won't be upset if they don't sign Soto because he was valued beyond what they would spend, but I will be disappointed (again) if they choose to not spend sufficiently to augment this roster and try to build a winner around their talented and young core. Another year of shopping pretty much exclusively at Craigslist is unacceptable, IMO. That said, I'm also a fickle and prudent New Englander and I don't want to see them throw bad money out there just to spend (ex., Sandoval, Pablo).
Exactly this. Like their interest in Soto, my willingness to give them the benefit of the doubt genuine but not limitless. I can understand not being the highest bidder on Soto, but if that's the case, my expectation is that they will smartly use their fairly significant resources elsewhere to improve the roster. A repeat of the last two years and I may very well hand Sam by Sox Fan Card.
+1 to this. Very well said. There are so many people on here that would have a gripe no matter what they did (or what was reported they were looking to do) If they told Boras early on that their top number was, say, 550m, and Boras said don't bother because its definitely going past that, the Sox would've been blasted as cheap, no longer a big market team, bargain shopping losers. If they would've been eliminated after the first round because Soto told them thanks for the meeting but I'm definitely staying in NYC, the Sox would be portrayed as an organization in decline where no one wants to go to anymore. So here they are still in contention, and now it's an insincere marketing stunt and dog and pony show. If they do end up signing him, but have to go to 750m (i do not subscribe to this at all) inevitably the bitching would start about how they had to buy him to come here and now their payroll flexibility to add pitching is gone, etc... it is really pretty unbelievable.
So the team is going to spend the time of their top executives and ownership to convince agents and players that their interests are real when they are not just to get the ticket sales from the "OMG we're in on Soto" crowd?
That sounds like an awful lot of work for a shitty ROI.
If the Heyman report is that The Red Sox are at or above $700M, this thread can be locked. Don't know if Soto signs here, but Sox are 100% serious at that clip.
Its not a report and people can avoid this thread if its bothering them. We have no facts so we don't know if its accurate, we don't know the structure and we don't know how much of a race this is between the teams. What we do know is that people keep citing numbers -$600mm or $700mm - as confirmation that they are serious.
If I were being asked to show a competitive level where I am not hell bent on winning, I would be around the same level as others. If I am hell bent on winning, I am more aggressive. They could be doing the former or the latter. I think this thread should remain open and people can simply skip it.
Nobody is going to be convinced one way or the other. Not sure how you can’t come away from this thinking that ownership has had a shift in aggressiveness, but some do and nothing short of signing him will change their thinking.
I think they're sincere, but also that it's irrelevant. What the Red Sox front office feels is irrelevant, too.
Either they sign guys or they don't, it's not really my business. I'll follow the team if they're interesting. Soto makes them a lot more interesting, but they will probably be interesting enough to follow based on the young guys alone.
Either they sign guys or they don't, it's not really my business. I'll follow the team if they're interesting. Soto makes them a lot more interesting, but they will probably be interesting enough to follow based on the young guys alone.
They’re surely more aggressive but how much more aggressive remains to be seen. We need to see the bid tabs here.
If they offered a comparable package as Yankees/Mets and lose, c’est la vie. If they offered a package that was less by a material amount (everyone’s materiality definitions likely differs), then they could have been both more aggressive but still not aggressive enough.
If Heyman’s tweet is factual, they’ve satisfied me. When you get north of $700M total contract value, you’re obviously playing with the big boys and made a legit offer.
We also don’t know the qualitative piece of what Soto actually wanted. If he wanted to remain in NYC all along, then it’s hard to really fault the Sox owners.
Oh, it will change their thinking. It will change to "they are stupid and only did this because dead Butch from the Cape was mocking them."
It's all PR nonsense until he actually signs a contract with the Boston Red Sox. I think their interest is genuine, in so much as they'd love to have Juan Soto in a Boston uniform. But if the Mets outbid you by 100mil, than the interest wasn't THAT genuine, now was it?
I voted yes in that the phrase says "interest in Soto."
Without knowing the actual market, the reports say they are in a realistic zone. With it being blind, with only Boras bluffing, they can only bid what they think will win, and they have.
If Cohen steps in and tops by $50 million, that doesn't suddenly render the Sox's interest as not being genuine. (This is not a knowing below market bid).
If the question is a proxy for are the Sox genuinely interested in spending to be competitive, the answer is even more clearly yes. Even under their prior "won't really spend until window begins to open" (the Bloom Betts explanation), they are there now. And frankly, I think their offense is "set" so that they can tinker with it rather than cementing it with Soto (and using the surplus Abreu to acquire pitching). If they lose Soto, they will then spend a majority of that on pitching and keep Abreu. To me, the key is they will spend, and knowing which acquisition will work out is unknowable. Did the Sox "lose" by not getting their top priority Mussina and settling for Manny? Did the Sox "lose" by not getting Beane, and settling for Theo? In other words, using a single result as a barometer of commitment is silly. They have the resources, and are ready to marshal them to be ultra-competitive in 2025-2030 after having retreated 2019-2024.
Without knowing the actual market, the reports say they are in a realistic zone. With it being blind, with only Boras bluffing, they can only bid what they think will win, and they have.
If Cohen steps in and tops by $50 million, that doesn't suddenly render the Sox's interest as not being genuine. (This is not a knowing below market bid).
If the question is a proxy for are the Sox genuinely interested in spending to be competitive, the answer is even more clearly yes. Even under their prior "won't really spend until window begins to open" (the Bloom Betts explanation), they are there now. And frankly, I think their offense is "set" so that they can tinker with it rather than cementing it with Soto (and using the surplus Abreu to acquire pitching). If they lose Soto, they will then spend a majority of that on pitching and keep Abreu. To me, the key is they will spend, and knowing which acquisition will work out is unknowable. Did the Sox "lose" by not getting their top priority Mussina and settling for Manny? Did the Sox "lose" by not getting Beane, and settling for Theo? In other words, using a single result as a barometer of commitment is silly. They have the resources, and are ready to marshal them to be ultra-competitive in 2025-2030 after having retreated 2019-2024.
Well know if/ when the details leak out, but usually what the loser(s) reportedly offered is muddy and self-serving.
The test is actually what they do after he signs (whether with them or not) to improve the team.
The test is actually what they do after he signs (whether with them or not) to improve the team.
The Boston Red Sox should never "retreat" in any year. They are a big market, premiere franchise, have one of the most passionate fan bases on the planet and are printing money down on Jersey Street.
It absolutely blows my mind away that people are ok with finishing last almost every year for the past 5. It's maddening. I don't expect them to roll the duck boats every year, but I don't think it is too much to ask for competitive baseball past Labor Day from the Boston Red Sox. This poll is the exact reason why they were able to get away with the futility of the past 5 years. Even with rolling out a sub-standard product, people will still continue pay the highest prices in MLB and fill the park.
I'd pretty much give up a finger to watch a playoff game again.
To me, the bigger question is not “is the interest in Soto genuine” (of which I believe it certainly is).
The more pressing matter is if they are truly committed to massive moves to try and improve the MLB product assuming they do not land Soto.
I want to believe they are - but then we see things like they were “in” on Snell and Kikuchi and landed neither. Then that they were in on another one year deal (Bieber).
If their move is to be in on anyone in case they get what they perceive to be value (ie Story), and monitor the big fish only to make a series of small one and two year deals, I think the “negative” crowd wins out. If they miss out on Soto but land “pitcher with term” and “bat with term”, or similar, the crowd that believes the narrative shift is genuine win out.
TBD, but I’m in the “ill believe it when they make a massive expenditure of some kind for a player with term” camp.
The more pressing matter is if they are truly committed to massive moves to try and improve the MLB product assuming they do not land Soto.
I want to believe they are - but then we see things like they were “in” on Snell and Kikuchi and landed neither. Then that they were in on another one year deal (Bieber).
If their move is to be in on anyone in case they get what they perceive to be value (ie Story), and monitor the big fish only to make a series of small one and two year deals, I think the “negative” crowd wins out. If they miss out on Soto but land “pitcher with term” and “bat with term”, or similar, the crowd that believes the narrative shift is genuine win out.
TBD, but I’m in the “ill believe it when they make a massive expenditure of some kind for a player with term” camp.
I am not saying I agreed with the retreat. While I agreed that $350 for Mookie was too high (I misread the market), I came to realize that Bloom was misreading the market thereafter, so a new foundation was never achieved. I think the lack of spending was not ownership, but Bloom's small-market piece-it-together background that made him disposed to trying not to outspend everyone. 2020-2023 was wasted treading water. That's not ownership, and they grew frustrated with him.
But they're ready to spend, and until Breslow shows the same inability to read the market, I figure he'll come away this offseason with more than some tape and gum solution, but a real centerpiece for the staff. Soto shows they have $50 mil per year to spend, and will do so on core pieces, not on short-term "see, we spent the money this year" pieces.
I don't understand any of the posts singing a dollar amount. *Reported $700mm, $1b, etc. in isolation does not mean serious or genuine. We are lacking a lot of information here and what is most important is what gets the deal done and then how the level looked relative to all the other offers.
If the number is, say, $750mm and the Sox came in at $700mm while NY, Tor and LA were all at $725-$740mm (this is just an example - don't care what the mouthpieces are spinning), you cannot argue they were serious players, absolute value of their offer be damned. I wouldn't even give them credit for trying.
I think there's perhaps a distinction to be made between genuine interest (which, IMO, is nearly inarguable), and whether their approach with regards to Soto is going to be effective.
Sorry, but there is no way the Sox offered $700M and went through all the other trouble just to put on a show. Now, they may not win the sweepstakes, which means their approach wasn't effective. Failure of execution rather than interest. But if their interest is not considered genuine, then neither is that of the Yankees or Dodgers (assuming Cohen wins the day).
Sorry, but there is no way the Sox offered $700M and went through all the other trouble just to put on a show. Now, they may not win the sweepstakes, which means their approach wasn't effective. Failure of execution rather than interest. But if their interest is not considered genuine, then neither is that of the Yankees or Dodgers (assuming Cohen wins the day).
Yeah totally, I'm at the point where even if they sign him for $700M I won't consider their interest genuine if other teams offered more. Also, I'm insufferable and people hate being around me.
Why is the that number, in isolation, evidence of their seriousness to you? What trouble did the Sox go through here - please be detailed? I don't think Breslow had to get it all out of an ATM or anything.
They gave a number to Boras and they spun it in the press.
We simply don't know how serious their number was. If their offer was reportedly $1b or $1t you could argue they still weren't real if the deal + other levels came in significantly higher.
The number is likely to be in the ballpark of that offered by other teams.
And I’ll ask the same question: was the interest from the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Dodgers similarly performative? If not, why not?
Because that number is one that NO ONE has ever signed for before. If they were willing to give an unprecedented contract to the guy, they're not fucking around. If that comes in low because other teams went even more over the top (relative to precedents), that doesn't diminish their initial interest or desire.
This does not appear to be playing out like the Yamamoto negotiations though. Nobody thought they were in on him, he didn’t visit Fenway, and the Sox interests were revealed to be largely performative. This is at least serious enough that all sides appear to still be engaged.
Like this situation we don't have enough information to characterize the interest.
My only point is a rumored dollar amount is evidence of nothing. The Sox may well have intended to win but they also have incentive to look involved too without actually playing. Its weird that for some, the latter isn't even a possibility.
I don't think that's fair. Their interest in Yamamoto was genuine, they just found out early it wasn't reciprocated. Not much you can do there but move on.
Like others, I think the Sox are willing to put in the effort to see if they can get him on their turns and, appreciating that he is a unique talent, they're willing to offer more to him than they have to others in the past. That said, they're not going to be willing to go mano-a-mano with the NYC teams if it comes to that. This has the benefit of them being able to say, "Well, we tried" and judging from some of the comments here, that will be enough for many.
The Sox have been a pursuing a rational business model of fielding a team that is competitive without breaking the bank. They're sort of in the hunt, what with all the wildcards now, until at least Labor Day. Sometimes like 2021, things will break the right way and they'll make the playoffs. Occasionally, they might pull a Texas Rangers and win the World Series with a team with a +/- 90 win team. The ballpark is pretty full (attendance has basically the same over the last three years). FSN makes lots of money without taking that much risk.
I have finally been able to start watching the Netflix documentary about 2004. Its striking how often JHW, Theo and Jed Hoyer talk about their aggressiveness in assembling the 2004 team, doing whatever it took to put together a champion, whether it was violating norms by going after Millar, landing Curt Schilling, rebuilding the bullpen or trying to shake things up with the giant Manny/Nomar/Arod thing. Henry, particularly, talks a lot about his eagerness to win a championship. Does anyone think they do this today? Instead, its all short-term deals for fungible players like Adam Duvall, O'Neill, Justin Turner, Chapman.
The Sox have been a pursuing a rational business model of fielding a team that is competitive without breaking the bank. They're sort of in the hunt, what with all the wildcards now, until at least Labor Day. Sometimes like 2021, things will break the right way and they'll make the playoffs. Occasionally, they might pull a Texas Rangers and win the World Series with a team with a +/- 90 win team. The ballpark is pretty full (attendance has basically the same over the last three years). FSN makes lots of money without taking that much risk.
I have finally been able to start watching the Netflix documentary about 2004. Its striking how often JHW, Theo and Jed Hoyer talk about their aggressiveness in assembling the 2004 team, doing whatever it took to put together a champion, whether it was violating norms by going after Millar, landing Curt Schilling, rebuilding the bullpen or trying to shake things up with the giant Manny/Nomar/Arod thing. Henry, particularly, talks a lot about his eagerness to win a championship. Does anyone think they do this today? Instead, its all short-term deals for fungible players like Adam Duvall, O'Neill, Justin Turner, Chapman.
If I recall how it played out correctly, the interest wasn't reciprocated has soon as it became apparent that the Sox were offering a fraction of the years and money that other teams were.
I disagree; once Sox ownership learned what Yamamoto would cost, they lost any interest; but there also weren’t lots of continuing rumors linking the Sox to the player as there are with Soto.
Edited to add the Max Power post I’m replying to, and Jeff P got there first.
That doesn't square with my recollection, which is that they had a $300m offer on the table that matched the Yankees offer, but YY's trip to New York was really about getting a higher bid from Cohen to take back to LA to match.
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-surprisingly-offered-young-phenom-massive-contract-according-to-insider-pat3
Do y'all have links to reporting that says otherwise?
First priority — sign Soto.
Second priority — make sure Yankees don’t sign Soto.
I don’t think the Sox will care if he goes to the Mets. You can lose him to the Mets, but not the Yankees.
Second priority — make sure Yankees don’t sign Soto.
I don’t think the Sox will care if he goes to the Mets. You can lose him to the Mets, but not the Yankees.
If they make the playoffs next year, I'm holding you to this. You can even pick the finger, friend.
If the Sox offer up the largest contract in baseball history, then get topped by one that's $100M higher (I'm thinking Mets), I dunno. I guess I can't get mad when the guy offering it is worth $30B. If they lose it because they refuse to beat an offer from the Yankees at $720M and the Mets won't match, then I'd be pissed. But if they offer $700 MILLION dollar contract to Soto... I mean, they're trying.
If these "reports" we are getting are accurate they are indeed trying. We need more information.
Seriously. Like now!