Do The Astros Have The Best Rotation Ever?

[jon abbey]

Verlander, Cole, Morton, Keuchel, and McCullers have combined to allow just 83 runs in their 48 starts so far, pretty crazy. Here is a whole article that goes into the question asked in the title:

" The fewest runs allowed by a rotation in the modern era (since 1920, non-strike years) are 342, by the 1967 White Sox, who pitched right in the middle of the historically low-offense late-60s. If the Astros were to maintain this pace -- easier said than done, of course, and perhaps impossible -- they would allow about 300 runs. They'd shatter the record."

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-rotation-could-rank-among-best-ever/c-277542622

 

[jon abbey]

Also from that article:

=============

Best rotation WAR, FanGraphs, 1920-present (non-strike years)

30.2 (projected) -- 2018 Astros
26.0 -- 2011 Phillies
25.9 -- 1971 White Sox
25.4 -- 1997 Braves
24.7 -- 1967 Twins

 

[glennhoffmania]

Maybe it's me but this seems a little silly at this point (not you, the article). We're talking about a very small sample in which their pitchers all seem to be enjoying some really good luck.

Morton has a career ERA of 4.28, mostly in the NL. His FIP this year is almost 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. His LOB% is extremely high and his BABIP is extremely low. His K rate has jumped more than 50%.

Cole has a career ERA of 3.37, also in the NL. His FIP is very good, but his K rate is also more than 50% higher than his career numbers. His BABIP and LOB% are both better than his career norms, but not as extreme as Morton.

Keuchel is similar other than the K rate. FIP is 4.3, LOB% is 6% higher, BABIP is 40 points lower.

McCullers' numbers are very similar to his career numbers. He's just a good pitcher.

Verlander is having a great year, but again he has a ridiculously low BABIP and a ridiculously high LOB%. His hard hit% is slightly lower than his career so that helps. But I don't see how a .205 BABIP is sustainable.

I'm happy to be proven wrong if there is support that these guys really are as good as their current numbers show but as of now I'm pretty skeptical.

 

[mauf]

The Astros’ rotation has a ways to go to unseat the 2011 Phillies (Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/whoever) as the best rotation of this decade, let alone establish themselves as the best of all time.

 

[jon abbey]

Verlander being this good goes back to last August when he was acquired by HOU and they fixed his slider. I haven’t seen Cole in HOU but Morton looks as good as pretty much any pitcher in baseball, hitting 97 with insane movement.

 

[jon abbey]

The Astros’ rotation has a ways to go to unseat the 2011 Phillies (Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/whoever) as the best rotation of this decade, let alone establish themselves as the best of all time.

The ‘whoever’ is kind of important, Houston’s #5 is McCullers who was close to perfect against CLE last night. But you’re right that the 2011 Phillies are the rotation to beat according to the WAR list upthread.

 

[mauf]

The ‘whoever’ is kind of important, Houston’s #5 is McCullers who was close to perfect against CLE last night. But you’re right that the 2011 Phillies are the rotation to beat according to the WAR list upthread.

I typed “whoever” because it was a committee of Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick, and Joe Blanton. Worley and Kendrick were good; Blanton’s 8 starts were rough, though judging by the numbers it looks like that was mostly bad BABIP luck.

 

[ledsox]

They have a ways to go but it's obviously incredibly impressive, this start by the starters. The pen ain't too shabby either (3.24 xFIP).
Also amazing that's it's on the heels of the historically great season the offense put together last year.
I was wondering what their record would be if they were hitting like they did in '17 (wRC+ 121).
Scary thought.

 

[j-man]

no that is the 1995 braves or 1998 yankees

 

[gryoung]

The Orioles had a season with four 20-game winners. Seems like that team would be in the discussion.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

That was mostly a function of having a 4-man rotation - a grand total of 16 games were started by pitchers not named Palmer, Dobson, McNally and Cuellar. Their FIP and ERA+ weren't nearly as impressive as the '95 Braves, '11 Phillies or the Astros so far.

 

[jon abbey]

The Astros lost 4-0 yesterday to the lowly Orioles and so just missed their chance for the best run ratio of any team since 1946, they ended up second behind the 1969 Orioles.

Best run ratio, 1946-present:

1969 Orioles: 1.507
2018 Astros: 1.493
1954 Indians: 1.480
1948 Indians: 1.479
2001 Mariners: 1.478

 

[AB in DC]

The Astros’ rotation has a ways to go to unseat the 2011 Phillies (Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/whoever) as the best rotation of this decade, let alone establish themselves as the best of all time.

The Astros didn't even end up with the best rotation of the American League.

Per fWAR:

22.9 Cleveland
22.5 Houston
16.9 MFY
15.7 Sox
[...]
7.7 A's