Did the AJ Pierzynski Signing Make Sense?

Adrian's Dome

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lexrageorge said:
AL pinch hitters batted 0.208 league wide in 2013 (and 0.206 in 2012).  And if AJP and "good at bat" never belong in the same sentence, that's Cherington's fault, not Farrell's.  I personally disagree that a guy with a career 0.750 OPS never has good at bats,
 
AJ Pierzynski, 2013:
 
529 PA.
 
P/PA: 3.27 (that's 75th out of 75 qualified AL batters.)
 
OBP: .297 (that's 65th out of 75 qualified AL batters.)
 
This is the guy you're OK with having bat with the game on the line? I don't care if it's game 1, game 156, or game 7 of the ALCS, AJ Pierzynski should not have been batting in that situation, and it's not Cherington's fault, as he provided Farrell with two other options to use. AJ was set up to fail there, and predictably, he did (quickly and weakly.)
 

lexrageorge

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Adrian's Dome said:
 
AJ Pierzynski, 2013:
 
529 PA.
 
P/PA: 3.27 (that's 75th out of 75 qualified AL batters.)
 
OBP: .297 (that's 65th out of 75 qualified AL batters.)
 
This is the guy you're OK with having bat with the game on the line? I don't care if it's game 1, game 156, or game 7 of the ALCS, AJ Pierzynski should not have been batting in that situation, and it's not Cherington's fault, as he provided Farrell with two other options to use. AJ was set up to fail there, and predictably, he did (quickly and weakly.)
My point is that if he's that bad of a hitter, then he never should have been signed to a contract in the first place.  Farrell had nothing to do with that.  Like it or not, we're stuck with AJP getting the majority of starts, and at-bats, at catcher this season.  
 
Farrell's other options involve using his backup catcher in the 8th inning of a road game; most managers prefer not to do that, especially in game 1.  
 

Frisbetarian

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I split this out for further discussion. I've been wondering about the Pierzynski signing for a while now. He does not seem to fit the Red Sox offensive model at all. In a Lindy's Red Sox preview article this spring, John Farrell was quoted as saying, "The Red Sox have been very patient at the plate in recent years, and their offense has been strong. We will continue what made the Sox offense successful, and that includes grinding out at bats, wearing out the starting pitcher, and getting to the bullpen in the middle innings.” Team Director of Pro Scouting, Jared Porter, echoed this when talking about the 2013 acquisitions, saying, "all stood out statistically as well rounded players who could complement the players we already had in place for 2013.  Whether it was pitches per plate appearance, power, on base ability, defense, baserunning, or undervalued bounce back types; they all stood out amongst other free agents as great fits for us from a pure performance standpoint.”
 
It's clear the team values patience at the plate and getting on base, and the stats back that up. The 2013 Red Sox saw 25,668 pitches as a team last year, the most in MLB. They were one of only 2 team seeing more than 4 pitches per at plate appearance, and all of their players except Iglesias (3.78) with over 225 PA took greater than the MLB average of 3.83 P/PA (Victorino was league average). The Sox have been P/PA heavy for a while now; since 2003 the team has top 3 every year, and finished 1st 6 times. 
 
The value of seeing a lot of pitches throughout the line-up is clear. I don't have time this morning to find offensive numbers when pitchers have thrown more than, say, 20 pitches in an inning, but would guess there is an inning pitch point where effectiveness is reduced greatly. Maybe someone can look this up. Teams also get to the bullpen faster when forcing the starter to throw a lot of pitches, and the cumulative effect of this can put stress on a bullpen later in a series. If you force the pen to throw 4 innings in each of the first two games of a series, they will in all probability have a few unavailable and tired arms in the third game.
 
AJP does not fit this see a lot of pitches model. He saw, as AD noted above, only 3.27 P/PA in 2013, the second lowest total in MLB (Jose Altuve was at 3.25), and well below the 3.83 average. In his career, AJP has seen 3.31 P/PA, and has only been above 3.5 once since becoming a regular player. 

I did not understand his signing, and do not like it. 
 

JimD

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He doesn't fit their offensive philosophy but he met their other needs - veteran guy with good defense, would fit in well in the clubhouse, and (most importantlyly IMO) was available on short money and can be painlessly jettisoned when the time comes to promote Vasquez. 
 

yecul

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Per the catcher framing thread he's considered average-ish (slightly below, actually) at pitch framing. I don't recall any special accolades thrown his way for his D. That's a factor. A known quantity behind the plate who is competent and a lacking, but project-able offense...
 
Ultimately I think they wanted a placeholder and picked the guy who was available that they liked best. This tells me that we are either wrong about an aspect of his game (they like his D better, presumably) and/or that they are looking to accelerate a catching prospect or two for 2015.
 
I, too, question the acquisition and was/am not a fan. But I don't expect it to be too significant one way or the other nor did they pass up clearly superior options. The money paid to the other catchers was not an option, IMO.
 

DJnVa

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The team clearly knows that AJP doesn't fit the patient mold and I suspect they understand (or at least think they understand) that losing 3 pitches per game (.75 PPA and 4 PA) doesn't have a detrimental effect big enough to offset whatever they feel AJP brings to the table in other areas.
 
As long as the lineup is patient in general, they can live with AJP's ways.
 

rembrat

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I dont have strong feelings about the signing either way but I can see why they picked him over any of the other options available. 4/5s of the pitching staff is Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Jake Peavy, veterans of 9, 11, 7, 12 major league seasons. I think it's a group of guys who would rather throw to someone they feel like they can trust and not a kid learning the league.
 

Toe Nash

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Ultimately it's one year and they needed a catcher. They determined that Salty wasn't a good idea for what he was asking (or a QO) and the youngsters aren't ready, both of which make sense to me. AJP is kind of a pricey solution but again, it's just a one-year deal. We saw other teams in our division acquire guys like Ryan Hanigan or Dioner Navarro for less, and while they seem like good choices if you squint, Hanigan is coming off a pretty poor offensive year and Navarro is coming off his only GOOD offensive year in a long time. AJP has been consistent for years and that's probably worth something for a defending champ.
 
A major concern I do have is with both catchers being 37, the potential they get hurt or fall off cliffs performance-wise is high. Plus, Ross' career could easily be over with one foul tip. Fortunately it looks like Vazquez can handle things at least defensively if that happens, but I would feel a lot better with someone younger on the roster even if we had to give them multiple years (the nice thing about catching is that they could start this year and still get 60 or so games in following years with Vazquez or Swihart the starter). But I don't know who that guy was besides McCann, which obviously wasn't happening.
 
As far as AJP's offensive approach, I don't think it's a big deal. Overall, barring a big drop-off, he'll end up in the top half of catchers offensively and I don't really care how he gets there. If you have a team of "grinders" having one guy who is a free swinger may not be a bad thing, anyway. Maybe the pitchers get tired of guys laying off close pitches and go right after him and he gets meatballs to hit. In any case, one guy seeing .7 pitches less than the rest of the team in 3-4 PAs isn't going to change things that much.
 

ivanvamp

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JimD said:
He doesn't fit their offensive philosophy but he met their other needs - veteran guy with good defense, would fit in well in the clubhouse, and (most importantlyly IMO) was available on short money and can be painlessly jettisoned when the time comes to promote Vasquez. 
 
I think this nails it.  He is simply a pretty decent and expendable short-term bridge to Vazquez and/or Swihart.  He's not going to hurt this team, yesterday's late-game AB notwithstanding.
 

johnnywayback

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Shouldn't the question, then, be about whether declining to offer Saltalamacchia a QO made sense?
 

ivanvamp

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johnnywayback said:
Shouldn't the question, then, be about whether declining to offer Saltalamacchia a QO made sense?
 
The QO would have been, what, $14.1 million?  They got Pierzynski for $8.25 million.  Difference of $5.85 million.  Here are their 2013 numbers:
 
Pierzynski:  .272/.297/.425/.722, 94 ops+, 17 hr, 70 rbi, 1.9 bWAR
Saltalamacchia:  .273/.338/.466/.804, 118 ops+, 14 hr, 65 rbi, 2.9 bWAR
 
One WAR is worth about $5 million or so.  They got Pierzynski for just under $6 million less than the QO for Salty would have cost.  So Pierzynski represents a slightly better value than does Salty.  
 
I guess fWAR's numbers make Salty a better value (Salty's fWAR is 1.7 higher).  Meh.  Six of one, half dozen of another.  
 

TomRicardo

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Basically AJ was a starting catcher who did not suck who was willing to take a one year deal.  All Philosophy aside, there wasn't a better catcher available that would be willing to take a year deal.  With AJ you have a left handed platoon mate for Ross.  I mean when you are looking for something like a starting catcher on a one year contract, beggars can't be choosers.
 
They could have offered Salty a QO but I think they had seen enough of his defense and disappearing acts.
 

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TomRicardo said:
Basically AJ was a starting catcher who did not suck who was willing to take a one year deal.  All Philosophy aside, there wasn't a better catcher available that would be willing to take a year deal.  With AJ you have a left handed platoon mate for Ross.  I mean when you are looking for something like a starting catcher on a one year contract, beggars can't be choosers.
 
They could have offered Salty a QO but I think they had seen enough of his defense and disappearing acts.
 
This reasoning I am completely fine with.
 
My problem is that if you're going to sign a very clearly flawed player, you need to play him to his strengths. Letting him bat with 2 men on, 2 men out, down 1 late, against a LOOGY is about as terrible a situation as you could probably draw up for him, and that's not factoring in Gomes and Ross, who both hit lefties well, on the bench.
 
If you're not going to PH for AJ there, you've never going to, and that's my issue.
 

rembrat

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How can you say that after watching Farrell pinch hit and sub guys in the playoffs? Do we have to go over how the season is a marathon and not a sprint?
 

ivanvamp

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rembrat said:
How can you say that after watching Farrell pinch hit and sub guys in the playoffs? Do we have to go over how the season is a marathon and not a sprint?
 
Merloni talked about this yesterday.  He said that Farrell's decision reflected the big picture rather than the moment.  He would know that you sometimes have to manage with the 162 in mind.  
 

syoo8

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I was thinking the same thing about Ross and Gomes both being great options to PH for Pierzynski.
 
I was trying to come up with a rationale for Farrell's decision not to PH, and the only conclusion I could draw was that since it was opening day (and Pierzynski's first game with the Red Sox) Farrell wanted to show confidence in AJ in that situation.
 

Adrian's Dome

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rembrat said:
How can you say that after watching Farrell pinch hit and sub guys in the playoffs? Do we have to go over how the season is a marathon and not a sprint?
It's more about Farrell's tactics. He doesn't play the matchups, which is evidenced by sticking with Gomes over Nava all through the playoffs.

Nobody is disputing the season is a marathon and not a sprint. We're not talking about yanking the starting catcher in the 3rd inning or if we're down 5. That was a close, winnable game and the matchup was terrible, he had great options to use, and didn't use them. That's frustrating and shortsighted, especially given his willingness to pull Napoli for a marginal base running gain.
 

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JimD said:
He doesn't fit their offensive philosophy but he met their other needs - veteran guy with good defense, would fit in well in the clubhouse, and (most importantlyly IMO) was available on short money and can be painlessly jettisoned when the time comes to promote Vasquez. 
 
This is where I'm at. This is why Grady Sizemore was given the opportunity to win the CF job over JBJ. This is why Carp started on Opening Day. Past the metrics there's a manager dealing with players. 
 

The Napkin

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rembrat said:
How can you say that after watching Farrell pinch hit and sub guys in the playoffs? Do we have to go over how the season is a marathon and not a sprint?
I would have thought 2011 would have put to rest the it's only a game in a long season thing.
 

Frisbetarian

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DrewDawg said:
The team clearly knows that AJP doesn't fit the patient mold and I suspect they understand (or at least think they understand) that losing 3 pitches per game (.75 PPA and 4 PA) doesn't have a detrimental effect big enough to offset whatever they feel AJP brings to the table in other areas.
 
As long as the lineup is patient in general, they can live with AJP's ways.
 
Three pitches a game may not seem like much, but I wonder. In order to see fewer pitches, AJP must swing at a ton of pitches, and a good number of the pitches he swings at must be outside the strike zone. In fact, per Fangraphs Pitch F/X  Plate Discipline, AJP swung at almost 50% (47.6%) of pitches outside the strike zone. The value of changing a ball to strike is 0.14 runs, so those swings could add up to a bunch of runs pretty quickly. An aside, I would love to try to figure out the value of seeing pitches. If anyone is interested in helping brainstorm this and possibly take it on as a project, please let me know. I'm pretty busy the next few weeks, but should have a ton of time from mid-April through the end of the hockey season. 
 
Lack of patience at the plate is one of my pet peeves, so I may very well be overreacting about AJP's shortcomings. Hell, I yelled at URI during the very first SoSH softball game for swinging at the first pitch (it was a ball, and he hit a tapper back to the mound), and am envisioning Felix screaming in the chat room when AJP swings at the first pitch and pops it up after a pitcher has thrown 8 wide in a row.  
 

soxhop411

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syoo8 said:
I was thinking the same thing about Ross and Gomes both being great options to PH for Pierzynski.

I was trying to come up with a rationale for Farrell's decision not to PH, and the only conclusion I could draw was that since it was opening day (and Pierzynski's first game with the Red Sox) Farrell wanted to show confidence in AJ in that situation.
As I said in the manager thread JF rarely PH for his catcher. Salty did not finish 6 games last year. And was PH for 3 of those times. Two of those PH were in September with expanded rosters.
 

Toe Nash

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The Napkin said:
I would have thought 2011 would have put to rest the it's only a game in a long season thing.
That's missing the point. I would have thought 2013 would have put to rest the "character and clubhouse chemistry is less important than winning one game" thing. Showing confidence in AJP in his first game with the team may help him perform in the 100+ other games he's going to play. It's intangible and probably overstated but it's very likely there.
 
Also, people are acting like pinch hitting Gomes is going to greatly improve your chances of winning the game. It was a high-leverage spot, but it's not going to improve your WE that much. You're looking at the difference between the chance of AJP getting a hit and Gomes getting one -- at best that's maybe 10%? Then, if he gets a hit, if it's only a single they just tie the game, so your WE is going to be around 50-60% and if they go ahead it's going to be around 85% as the Orioles still had two times up. So making that move is what, 10% chance of a 40% swing? 4% WE at best? And for that people want to potentially piss off your starting catcher and maybe other veterans? And Farrell didn't seem to think it was that big of a difference b/w AJP and Gomes, anyway.
 

Plympton91

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Toe Nash said:
So making that move is what, 10% chance of a 40% swing? 4% WE at best? And for that people want to potentially piss off your starting catcher and maybe other veterans? And Farrell didn't seem to think it was that big of a difference b/w AJP and Gomes, anyway.
This line of reasoning, while common, presumes that a 37 year old veteran catcher is so lacking in self awareness that he'd become a clubhouse problem when a manager makes a clearly advantageous decision. While some of the stories about AJ suggest he might be that kind of self centered prick, I hope he's not. And Farrell would be sending another well-respected veteran up to hit for him, which also should smooth over any hurt feelings. Especially if AJ is more committed to winning than to his counting stats
 

MakMan44

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Plympton91 said:
This line of reasoning, while common, presumes that a 37 year old veteran catcher is so lacking in self awareness that he'd become a clubhouse problem when a manager makes a clearly advantageous decision. While some of the stories about AJ suggest he might be that kind of self centered prick, I hope he's not. And Farrell would be sending another well-respected veteran up to hit for him, which also should smooth over any hurt feelings. Especially if AJ is more committed to winning than to his counting stats
That last line is the most important thing IMO. I would assume that he signed with the Red Sox as a way to win another ring before retiring, thus caring more about winning than his personal stats. 
 
To play devil's advocate though, is it possible Farrell wants to limit Ross's usage as much as possible? Neither one of his current catchers is young and the less games they see, for any reason, the more likely they are to hold up over the course of the season.
 

Toe Nash

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Plympton91 said:
This line of reasoning, while common, presumes that a 37 year old veteran catcher is so lacking in self awareness that he'd become a clubhouse problem when a manager makes a clearly advantageous decision. While some of the stories about AJ suggest he might be that kind of self centered prick, I hope he's not. And Farrell would be sending another well-respected veteran up to hit for him, which also should smooth over any hurt feelings. Especially if AJ is more committed to winning than to his counting stats
Yeah, I read you in the other thread. But neither of us know what the dynamic is like so I'd err on the side of JF here, since he does. Even the nicest dude may feel a bit grumpy if they were benched in the first game of the year. And as I stated it's not like you're putting Barry Bonds in...you're putting in your 4th OF (if a pretty good one), and then you have to worry about the risk of injury to your backup C, even if small.
 
Anyway, this whole tangent should go in the second-guessers thread, so my apologies, though I guess I didn't start it.
 

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johnnywayback said:
Shouldn't the question, then, be about whether declining to offer Saltalamacchia a QO made sense?
 
 
I will take the FO's word on this - that offering the QO to all of the FAs would have potentially pushed them over the LT.  If they'd known of Dempster's "retirement" sooner they may indeed have given one to Salty. But that still wouldn't have guaranteed that he would be back. In the end a one year placeholder - if it's even that - seemed the logical way to go. Besides - there's a reasonable chance AJ out hits Salty this year anyways.
 
Like many here I have a pretty negative opinion on hackers like AJ. But if he puts up a .750 ops I don't much care if it's all batting and slugging average driven. I think the FO were far more concerned with getting a veteran guy who could handle the pitching staff.
 

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Frisbetarian said:
Lack of patience at the plate is one of my pet peeves 
 
I have a special dislike for it in a catcher. I mean, if there's one guy in that lineup who ought to be acutely aware of the favor he's doing the opposition by widening the strike zone, it's him. Of course I realize that knowing the value of a skill doesn't automatically translate to possessing it, but still....
 
 
MakMan44 said:
 
To play devil's advocate though, is it possible Farrell wants to limit Ross's usage as much as possible? Neither one of his current catchers is young and the less games they see, for any reason, the more likely they are to hold up over the course of the season.
 
This is a good point in general, and I think it is very likely that we'll see even less pinch-hitting for catchers than normal this year for that very reason. OTOH, you'd think that if there was ever a good time to do it, an afternoon game before an off day would be the time. I think it was more likely Farrell giving Pierzynski a little rope in his first start of the season.
 

DJnVa

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Frisbetarian said:
 
Three pitches a game may not seem like much, but I wonder. In order to see fewer pitches, AJP must swing at a ton of pitches, and a good number of the pitches he swings at must be outside the strike zone. In fact, per Fangraphs Pitch F/X  Plate Discipline, AJP swung at almost 50% (47.6%) of pitches outside the strike zone. The value of changing a ball to strike is 0.14 runs, so those swings could add up to a bunch of runs pretty quickly. An aside, I would love to try to figure out the value of seeing pitches. If anyone is interested in helping brainstorm this and possibly take it on as a project, please let me know. I'm pretty busy the next few weeks, but should have a ton of time from mid-April through the end of the hockey season. 
 
Seems like you could find a platoon somewhere with a patient hitter and a hacker and tease out the numbers you're looking for--runs scored, pitches seen, how deep the opposing SP lasts. There's going to be a lot of extraneous noise though, and how big of a sample would you need?
 
AJP just hacks at so many first pitches (40% of his PAs) and chases so many out of the strike zone, that he's going to have a lot of weak contact because he's hitting pitcher's pitches in some cases, and he's not going to be in hitter's counts--he sees a lot fewer 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 pitches than the average hitter.
 

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DrewDawg said:
 
Seems like you could find a platoon somewhere with a patient hitter and a hacker and tease out the numbers you're looking for--runs scored, pitches seen, how deep the opposing SP lasts. There's going to be a lot of extraneous noise though, and how big of a sample would you need?
 
AJP just hacks at so many first pitches (40% of his PAs) and chases so many out of the strike zone, that he's going to have a lot of weak contact because he's hitting pitcher's pitches in some cases, and he's not going to be in hitter's counts--he sees a lot fewer 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 pitches than the average hitter.
In Pierzyski's 3-year split, he's batting .381/.387/.664 on 0-0 counts. That's putting the first pitch into play and doesn't include the instances where he fouls / misses the first pitch, but it suggests his aggression early in the count isn't exactly a problem.
 

DJnVa

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Super Nomario said:
In Pierzyski's 3-year split, he's batting .381/.387/.664 on 0-0 counts. That's putting the first pitch into play and doesn't include the instances where he fouls / misses the first pitch, but it suggests his aggression early in the count isn't exactly a problem.
 
It's not a problem on that particular pitch, and I'm sure there will be a few times this year he comes up, the entire game thread is begging him to take a pitch or two off a tiring pitcher and he laces a double off the wall on the first pitch. But on the large number of plate appearances that don't end on the first pitch, he's putting himself in a hole that's harder to dig out of--he hits .230 after an 0-1 count. A bit more patience on that first pitch (not chasing so many out of the zone) would likely lead to better hitting counts after that. I guess it's not first pitch swinging as much as first pitch chasing.
 
Of course, he's 37, his approach is unlikely to change, and the Sox know that.
 

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DrewDawg said:
 
It's not a problem on that particular pitch, and I'm sure there will be a few times this year he comes up, the entire game thread is begging him to take a pitch or two and he laces a double off the wall. But on the large number of plate appearances that don't end on the first pitch, he's putting himself in a hole.
Relative to taking the first pitch, he only puts himself in a hole if he swings at a ball. I don't see a difference between taking the first pitch to go 0-1 and fouling / missing the first pitch to go 0-1.
 

DJnVa

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Super Nomario said:
Relative to taking the first pitch, he only puts himself in a hole if he swings at a ball. I don't see a difference between taking the first pitch to go 0-1 and fouling / missing the first pitch to go 0-1.
 
There's not, but as Fris said he swings at a lot of balls out of the strike zone.
 

Just a bit outside

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I don't know if it can be done but the comparison would be if you could look at first pitch location.  What is his average in an at bat if the first pitch is in the strike zone vs. his average if the first pitch is out of the strike zone?  Forget about whether he swings at it or not. 
 
I would guess that AJP's average is slightly higher on those at bats when the first pitch is in the strike zone compared to the average player because some players always take the first pitch and it may be the best pitch of the at bat.  On the other side, I would imagine that he has a much lower average than most when the first pitch is out of the strike zone.  Many other players would take the pitch and get a hitter's count but he ends up 0-1 and behind it the count.
 
On the original question, the signing makes sense to find a one year platoon partner but I don't know anyone who is excited by AJP.
 

ivanvamp

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The Napkin said:
I would have thought 2011 would have put to rest the it's only a game in a long season thing.
 
You cannot play every regular season game like it's a must-win.  
 

rundugrun

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Aside from the costly QO, Salty is a horrible hitter from the right side. I tuned in to the Marlins game just in time to watch him K against a lefty on 3 or 4 pitches.
 

pokey_reese

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For what it's worth, here is a comment from Cameron's Fangraphs chat today:
 
Comment From Zachary
Does WAR include how many pitcher per PA a player sees, with the assumption it leads to lower quality opposition pitching later in the game?

 

Dave Cameron: No, because there’s no real evidence that is true.
 

wyatt55

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soxhop411 said:
As I said in the manager thread JF rarely PH for his catcher. Salty did not finish 6 games last year. And was PH for 3 of those times. Two of those PH were in September with expanded rosters.
True, but the need to PH for Salty last year was mitigated to a degree with him being a switch hitter. 
 
I think the fact that Ross is a foul tip to the mask away from being out of the game played into Farrell's decision Monday.     
 
Aside:  Salty's really only 29 this season?  Wow. 
 
Question:  Emergency catcher this year is . . . who? 
 

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pokey_reese said:
For what it's worth, here is a comment from Cameron's Fangraphs chat today:
 
Comment From Zachary
Does WAR include how many pitcher per PA a player sees, with the assumption it leads to lower quality opposition pitching later in the game?
 
Dave Cameron: No, because there’s no real evidence that is true.
I don't know of any studies about that myself. But, if you're able to get the SP out of a game early in the first game of a series and get to the pen early it can limit the options for the manager in the following games. With a depleted pen the SP might stay in longer even though he should be removed because he is getting lit up. It also means the manager might not be able to use what he considers an ideal pitcher-hitter match up in those games.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Welcome to Boston, AJP. You've got people thinking about running you out of town after one game, after an at bat in which you actually made pretty good contact. 
 
My alternative thread title for this would be "Does Boston have an AJ Pierzynski problem?" I hope for AJP's sake that he gets off to a decent start over the next couple weeks or I could easily his term with the Red Sox going bad places. There were lots of doubters (myself included) before he even stepped into the uniform who are going to have very little patience if he struggles.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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absintheofmalaise said:
I don't know of any studies about that myself. But, if you're able to get the SP out of a game early in the first game of a series and get to the pen early it can limit the options for the manager in the following games. With a depleted pen the SP might stay in longer even though he should be removed because he is getting lit up. It also means the manager might not be able to use what he considers an ideal pitcher-hitter match up in those games.
A more complete answer would be "No, because this category of stuff is too complicated to be able to clearly demonstrate that kind of impact with enough precision to give a meaningful result". Which doesn't mean that it's not important, it's just not very quantifiable.
 

pokey_reese

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absintheofmalaise said:
I don't know of any studies about that myself. But, if you're able to get the SP out of a game early in the first game of a series and get to the pen early it can limit the options for the manager in the following games. With a depleted pen the SP might stay in longer even though he should be removed because he is getting lit up. It also means the manager might not be able to use what he considers an ideal pitcher-hitter match up in those games.
I totally agree, and I think that from a logical standpoint it makes all kinds of sense for hitter who see a lot of pitches to be valuable. 
 
I do wonder though, if that value doesn't need to be "added" to a hitter's numbers because in essence, they already are showing up.  I.e. - if a hitter gets to have ABs against lesser relief pitchers, or against more exhausted starters, etc., that value will simply be included in their BA/OBP/SLG.  The question then, would be is that hitter seeing more pitches contributing that effect to other hitters, and how much.
 
Then, you are really breaking it down into several different questions, including:
does pitcher performance fall off after 20 pitches (or some other number) in the same inning? (easier to measure)
How does getting a starter out by say, the end of the 5th or 6th, affect run scoring for the next day compared to, say, getting him out in later innings? (tougher to measure)
 
The biggest problem is how much noise comes in via the manager's decision.  It's easy to think that using up more arms means facing weaker pitchers out of the bullpen the next day, but it is just too dependent on game situation.
 
Let's say you knock a starter out after 5 innings.  You often score a lot of runs in the process, so maybe they just bring in the mop-up/long man at that point, and you still have to face the best members of their bullpen the next day.  Or, if a game is close, maybe the manager decides to use his ace setup man for two innings instead of his usual one, in which case you might actually have a lesser chance of scoring than you would have against a tired starter.  Is the pitcher being knocked out a #1, or a #5?
 
There are just so many aspects in play here, that trying to gauge the effect that a hitter who sees a lot of pitches has on future games might be out of reach, though within the same game it might be a little easier.
 

Sampo Gida

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There are many things that go into measuring a players value and while P/PA is one of them it is not the only one.  AJP is simply a bridge.  He hits above average for a C and plays decent defense, while he is 37 and impatient at the plate.  His talents offset his negatives at the price (years) that they got him for.  If they were signing someone for long term they probably attach more importance to P/PA, but on a 1 yr deal there was not much available.
 
I liked Salty myself but he wanted too many years
 
As for the PH thing many managers are reluctant to PH for their catcher.  Maybe he does in the 9th inning, or later in the season, but I am not jumping on him for not  PH for AJP in his 1st game
 

dbn

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pokey_reese said:
I totally agree, and I think that from a logical standpoint it makes all kinds of sense for hitter who see a lot of pitches to be valuable. 
 
I do wonder though, if that value doesn't need to be "added" to a hitter's numbers because in essence, they already are showing up.  I.e. - if a hitter gets to have ABs against lesser relief pitchers, or against more exhausted starters, etc., that value will simply be included in their BA/OBP/SLG.  The question then, would be is that hitter seeing more pitches contributing that effect to other hitters, and how much.
 
Then, you are really breaking it down into several different questions, including:
does pitcher performance fall off after 20 pitches (or some other number) in the same inning? (easier to measure)
How does getting a starter out by say, the end of the 5th or 6th, affect run scoring for the next day compared to, say, getting him out in later innings? (tougher to measure)
 
The biggest problem is how much noise comes in via the manager's decision.  It's easy to think that using up more arms means facing weaker pitchers out of the bullpen the next day, but it is just too dependent on game situation.
 
Let's say you knock a starter out after 5 innings.  You often score a lot of runs in the process, so maybe they just bring in the mop-up/long man at that point, and you still have to face the best members of their bullpen the next day.  Or, if a game is close, maybe the manager decides to use his ace setup man for two innings instead of his usual one, in which case you might actually have a lesser chance of scoring than you would have against a tired starter.  Is the pitcher being knocked out a #1, or a #5?
 
There are just so many aspects in play here, that trying to gauge the effect that a hitter who sees a lot of pitches has on future games might be out of reach, though within the same game it might be a little easier.
 
Agreeing with your overall point, even the bolded would be hard to measure because of the inherent biases. E.g., innings that take >20 pitches to record 3 outs are generally going to be worse innings than those that took <20 pitches, but the cause and effect are the reverse of what one is trying to measure: he had to throw a lot of pitches because he was struggling; he wasn't struggling because he thew a lot of pitches. Even if you only consider innings with >20 pitches and compare performance in the first 20 to anything afterwards, there is another bias. Again, he was most likely struggling those first 20, so the results are probably poor. If, however, he gets the 3rd out in pitches 21-25 or so, then those pitches are going to be better, which would suggest (incorrectly) that he got better after 20 pitches.
 
Indeed it would be hard to quantitatively measure, but just from a game theory perspective, driving up pitch counts has to be beneficial at some point. Say the opposing manager plans to use his best available RP in the 9th, 2nd best in the 8th, 3rd best in the 7th, etc. Driving up pitch counts to knock out the SP earlier than he otherwise would be removed begins to be beneficial when it gets him pulled after the nth inning, such that the starter is a better pitcher then the 9-nth best RP. 
 

dbn

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absintheofmalaise said:
I don't know of any studies about that myself. But, if you're able to get the SP out of a game early in the first game of a series and get to the pen early it can limit the options for the manager in the following games. With a depleted pen the SP might stay in longer even though he should be removed because he is getting lit up. It also means the manager might not be able to use what he considers an ideal pitcher-hitter match up in those games.
 
I always pay attention to SP pitch counts, but more so in the beginning of a series, for that reason. The only time I'm not excited about knocking out a SP early to use up the opponents bull pen is against a non AL East team in the last game of a series when the opponent is going to play another AL East team the next day.