#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Hoya81

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CantKeepmedown said:
It was unreal.  "Luck likes a 13.0 ball.  Rodgers like's it overinflated.  Brady should just come out and admit that he can't throw a regulation ball very well."
 
Did he miss the Super Bowl?
Two INTs!
 

Ed Hillel

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drleather2001 said:
Oh, hey, while we're at it, let's offer totally baseless and impossible-to-contradict vague accusations of being "good cheaters."
 
This is Grade A propaganda.   
 
The "best," let's not cut them short pls. I'm sure the reputation is absolutely 100% not based on bitterness over losing constantly.
 

dcmissle

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As I suspected, this is it in a nutshell:

"Freeman reports that one source told him that one NFL team executive yelled to another, the league finally got those motherfs."


Yet:

"Freeman stressed in his report that there is no proof that the Patriots are bigger offenders than any other team but that their reputation was the supreme motivation for the NFLs meticulous investigation."
 

Leather

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If Goodell can't fucking see why that reputation is in place (hint: he bears a shitload of responsibility), and why it's just a bunch of sore losers, I just don't know what to say.
 
"They're too good; they must be cheating!"   Jesus fucking Christ.  
 

ShaneTrot

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Is it not interesting that this was released after the 2015 Draft? We are still talking about the NFL while the MLB season has started, and the NBA and NHL are in their playoffs. All these football writers are still getting page-views. Fascinating.
 

simplyeric

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Ed Hillel said:
 
The "best," let's not cut them short pls. I'm sure the reputation is absolutely 100% not based on bitterness over losing constantly.
 

Well, technically it's 100% correct.
 
They are "the best".
 
And they are cheaters (I don't mean Ballgnarock, I just mean, quite literally, that all the teams cheat at some point, however much or little).
 
There's some missing punctuation I guess
 
"They are: the best; cheaters."
 

dcmissle

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ShaneTrot said:
Is it not interesting that this was released after the 2015 Draft? We are still talking about the NFL while the MLB season has started, and the NBA and NHL are in their playoffs. All these football writers are still getting page-views. Fascinating.
I thought that would elicit criticism about the League going soft on Kraft -- better to lose a draft pick next year than this, would be the line.

When did the report come out, this Wednesday? I can tell you with some experience along these lines that when you're talking about an effort that began in late Jan/early Feb, the report could well have issued two or three weeks earlier.
 

Mooch

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I originally thought it would be just a fine but with all of the press coverage, I'm guessing that Goodell drops the hammer: 8 Game suspension, $100k fine to Brady; $500k fine to the Pats plus next year's first round draft pick.
 

Harry Hooper

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Was it 4 Colts balls were measured because the officials ran out of time, or was it really we had to stop at 4 because we were deathly afraid of what the next 8 ball results would be?
 

Section15Box113

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Yep. I think he's coming down disproportionately hard here.

Citing "awareness, and possible guidance, of the actions of team personnel" and "failure to cooperate with investigators" (and any other bullshit he can come up with), the Commissioner spins his wheel of justice and suspends Brady for 8 games and imposes a $500K fine as well. Team is docked a third rounder.

Tempted to say he'll try to go longer, but what I've outlined above would be complete and utter bullshit (on all fronts) as it is.

Now, if it weren't Goodell, the punishment would fit the (alleged) infraction. Small fine, no suspension.
 

soxhop411

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Section15Box113 said:
Yep. I think he's coming down disproportionately hard here.

Citing "awareness, and possible guidance, of the actions of team personnel" and "failure to cooperate with investigators" (and any other bullshit he can come up with), the Commissioner spins his wheel of justice and suspends Brady for 8 games and imposes a $500K fine as well. Team is docked a third rounder.

Tempted to say he'll try to go longer, but what I've outlined above would be complete and utter bullshit (on all fronts) as it is.

Now, if it weren't Goodell, the punishment would fit the (alleged) infraction. Small fine, no suspension.
Brady and the NFLPA then burn the NFL to the ground 
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

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Mooch said:
I originally thought it would be just a fine but with all of the press coverage, I'm guessing that Goodell drops the hammer: 8 Game suspension, $100k fine to Brady; $500k fine to the Pats plus next year's first round draft pick.
 
If the punishment is anywhere near this harsh and the Pats organization does not go scorched earth with their response, then I have lost all faith in Bob Kraft.
 

dcmissle

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Section15Box113 said:
Yep. I think he's coming down disproportionately hard here.

Citing "awareness, and possible guidance, of the actions of team personnel" and "failure to cooperate with investigators" (and any other bullshit he can come up with), the Commissioner spins his wheel of justice and suspends Brady for 8 games and imposes a $500K fine as well. Team is docked a third rounder.

Tempted to say he'll try to go longer, but what I've outlined above would be complete and utter bullshit (on all fronts) as it is.

Now, if it weren't Goodell, the punishment would fit the (alleged) infraction. Small fine, no suspension.
You both just scalded Stich's nuts with spilled coffee.

I can't rule this out; as I said, I think there is a 10% chance he leaves the reservation.

Now for the good news. If it's anything like this, the penalty is DOA at the reviewing judge's table. On these facts, it gets no deference. The split-the-difference game theory backfires cause it's taken too far.
 

Ed Hillel

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soxhop411 said:
 
Well, there's a shock.
 
Anyway, Yee is coming up on WEEI in the next 10-15 minutes, for those interested.
 

DJnVa

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Ed Hillel said:
 
Well, there's a shock.
 
Anyway, Yee is coming up on WEEI in the next 10-15 minutes, for those interested.
 
 
Home audience this time.
 
 

Captaincoop

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We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
 

Mooch

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You both just scalded Stich's nuts with spilled coffee.

I can't rule this out; as I said, I think there is a 10% chance he leaves the reservation.

Now for the good news. If it's anything like this, the penalty is DOA at the reviewing judge's table. On these facts, it gets no deference. The split-the-difference game theory backfires cause it's taken too far.
My hope is that Tagliabue hears the appeal and eviscerates Goodell and his merry band of Kensildouches for mishandling the whole situation.
 

jsinger121

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Captaincoop said:
We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
Its fucking ridiculous and more than enough reason to remove Goodell as the commissioner of the league. If TB12 gets suspended I hope Kraft comes out and says all support for Goodell is gone and he will rally other owners behind him.
 

soxhop411

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Captaincoop said:
We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
Its Goodell... so yes
 

Mooch

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We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
You are operating under the assumption that Goodell acts rationally as opposed to catering to public opinion, particularly post Ray Rice. I get the feeling that he is going to make a statement with this one.
 

Section15Box113

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Cross posting from the other thread:
 
soxhop411 said:
 
This sums up why I think the hammer comes down disproportionately.
 

4 6 3 DP

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I believe Belichick gets suspended under the Sean Payton theory. In fact I think he may well get more than Brady. I hope I am wrong.
 

Captaincoop

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Mooch said:
You are operating under the assumption that Goodell acts rationally as opposed to catering to public opinion, particularly post Ray Rice. I get the feeling that he is going to make a statement with this one.
 
That what, he's completely incompetent?

I just have trouble believing that any penalty against Brady is going to withstand appeal. 
 

soxhop411

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Captaincoop said:
 
That what, he's completely incompetent?

I just have trouble believing that any penalty against Brady is going to withstand appeal. 
It took TMZ releasing a video for him to punish someone..... So yes he is incompetent
 

Filet-O-Fisk

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Joshv02 said:
Right - and that a mere 30 seconds to a minute change in our assumptions (for when we start measuring these) makes the data fit perfectly with the narrative that it is simply the natural processes at work (as you can see on the time graphs right after tables 13-14).
 
 
This is really a story of people using numbers to confuse.
Yes, the investigation tried to cover all the bases, but this simulation is flawed (and not well described), and still relies on the 12.5 and 13.0 as the exact pressure of every Patriots and Colts ball, respectively. 
And apparently I'm not smart enough to figure out what this "master gauge" business is. 
 

ivanvamp

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CantKeepmedown said:
It was unreal.  "Luck likes a 13.0 ball.  Rodgers like's it overinflated.  Brady should just come out and admit that he can't throw a regulation ball very well."
 
Did he miss the Super Bowl?
 
To be fair, a few of Brady's passes were a bit wobbly.  Didn't have the tightest spiral.  
 
Kind of like Peyton Manning's passes.
 

OCST

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BigSoxFan said:
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What's the deal with Indianapolis and self-righteousness? Holy shit.
 
You answered your own question.  
 
Indianapolis.
 
More of the self-righteous "heartland" bullshit that gives us ST LOUIS CaRDNEALS FANS BEST FANSIN BasEWVBALL!!111!11!!!1
 
If you don't believe me, and think I'm stereotyping, check out the (excellent) 30 for 30 on the Pacers-Knicks rivalry in the mid-90's: http://espn.go.com/30for30/film?page=winning-time-reggie-miller-vs.-the-new-york-knicks
 
The Pacers, many of whom hailed from such down-home farm locations as Los Angeles, Brooklyn, and Oakland, embraced to the hilt this "we are the guardians of the small farming towns who play the game the right way, and we're defending our sacred culture against the evil horde from the big city" crap.  And of course, that impetus comes from the Indy fans and media to begin with.
 
I've been to Indianapolis.  It can fuck itself in the ear.
 

Section15Box113

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Captaincoop said:
 
I just have trouble believing that any penalty against Brady is going to withstand appeal. 
 
To be clear, I'm not saying that my prediction withstands appeal. 
 
But sounds like Wheel of Justice might spin today and the prevailing winds felt by Goodell's finger are blowing hard, so I am sensing that the initial judgment will be harsh.
 
That said, there's more that will come out on this story and I fully expect the TB camp to push back extremely aggressively.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I'm glad all those NFL scouts that passed over him were right. The guy can't throw a regulation ball! No wonder why no one wanted to draft him. 
 

Gorton Fisherman

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Yossarian said:
I know next to nothing about internal corporate investigations or the like, so maybe this is common practice in that world.  But I am bothered by one point that keeps getting brought up -- that "more probable than not" is not a troubling standard by which to judge guilt because that's essentially the same standard--preponderance of the evidence--that is followed in civil litigation.
 
That's true enough, but one of the reasons that standard is followed in the court system is because it's been arrived at through the adversary process.  The evidence of the plaintiff has been tested through (hopefully) rigorous cross-examination by parties with a strong interest in testing it, experts presented by one side are frequently offset or challenged by competing experts, and then the factfinder evaluates everything they've just seen and heard -- only deciding at THAT point if there's 51 percent evidence that the plaintiff has proved its case.  
 
This "process," such as it is, features none of that.  No one from the Patriots has had any opportunity to challenge the expert conclusions, poke holes in witness testimony, or subject the evidence or conclusions drawn to any kind of pushback before the "verdict" was reached.  As I said, maybe that's commonplace when dealing with corporate or internal investigations, but it has nothing to do with the standard of proof set out in litigation -- so it shouldn't be defended that way.
 
This is a superb point.
 

dcmissle

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Goodell is like Joe Pesci in a gangster movie. He is so apparently clueless, unpredictable and arbitrary -- whether through stupidity or by design -- that you can rule almost nothing out, either timing wise or substance wise. And he appears to have no strong support.

If I'm Yee, I stop the media circuit, get my ass off Boston radio, and prepare for the worst, which could come at any time.
 

Ed Hillel

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~ The interview was 6 hours
 
~ No subjects were off limits
 
~ No plans at the moment to release the notes from the meeting
 
~ Report states enough about what had occurred, but disagreed with the conclusions
 
~ Yee met with Ted Wells, think he's a fine man
 
~ At every point where team could have made an inference positive to the Patriots, they chose not to. In any instance where Colts of NFL official could make an inference, they chose to believe them
 
~ Doesn't feel report was truly independent, but doesn't have any conflict towards Wells or team
 
~ Not a legal proceeding, so there was no access to cross examine Colts, NFL, or Ravens officials
 
~ Hasn't heard anything regarding punishment, he's hoping there's none (lol)
 
~ Wells could have written "certain," "virtually certain," or "substantially certain," but chose "more probable than not."
 
~ Tom loves the ballboys, and is upset they've been brought into this situation and is certain they did nothing wrong
 
~ Tom actually laughed at the texts and understood the context of the "F tom" conversation
 
At this point, Yee was seemingly assassinated by Roger Goodell.
 
Yee has risen from the dead.
 
~ If punishment handed down, will see what the options are.
 
Now he's gone for good.
 

redsahx

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Heard, I believe, Chris Villani on WEEI with Mike Adams about an hour ago. Villani bowed down to the awesome scientific analysis of Exponent. Adams replied, "It's not even science!"
 
Any time Mike Adams is making more sense than you are should fill you with deep shame.
 
And this sadly applies to 538 as well......
 
that came up in fivethirtyeight's analysis yesterday
 
 
so the blog of He-Who-Must-Be-Worshipped-Here (sorry Rumpole) has bitten SoSh in the ass?

I cannot compete with them on science. But when they say that the fumble rate is proof this has been going on for years, I can and will kill them on logic ...

But it happens. Nate is great at politics and baseball. He sucks ass on college basketball and soccer. So, too, with the sons of Nate ...
Are people referring to this piece? If so, yeah I was shocked to see something so ridiculous coming from 538, though at least Nate Silver wasn't one of the people taking part in that particular online discussion.

The key thing here is that while the 538 guys were falling all over themselves to praise Exponent's work, Exponent DID NOT COLLECT THE DATA, Walt Anderson and his crew did. There are so many issues there that it was shocking that 538 didn't jump all over them.

As someone who has both written and peer-reviewed Scientific journal articles, it has been incredibly frustrating that there is really no way to effectively articulate to the public at large just how bad the "science" of the report is. Yep's posts yesterday were fantastic.
 

Harry Hooper

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Ed Hillel said:
~ The interview was 6 hours
 
~ No subjects were off limits
 
~ No plans at the moment to release the notes from the meeting
 
~ Report states enough about what had occurred, but disagreed with the conclusions
 
~ Yee met with Ted Wells, think he's a fine man
 
~ At every point where team could have made an inference positive to the Patriots, they chose not to. In any instance where Colts of NFL official could make an inference, they chose to believe them
 
~ Doesn't feel report was truly independent, but doesn't have any conflict towards Wells or team
 
~ Not a legal proceeding, so there was no access to cross examine Colts, NFL, or Ravens officials
 
~ Hasn't heard anything regarding punishment, he's hoping there's none (lol)
 
~ Wells could have written "certain," "virtually certain," or "substantially certain," but chose "more probable than not."
 
~ Tom loves the ballboys, and is upset they've been brought into this situation and is certain they did nothing wrong
 
~ Tom actually laughed at the texts and understood the context of the "F tom" conversation
 
At this point, Yee was seemingly assassinated by Roger Goodell.
 
Yee has risen from the dead.
 
~ If punishment handed down, will see what the options are.
 
Now he's gone for good.
 
 
Tremendous! Thanks for the summary.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Some people are too far into the weeds on this thing. The verdict has been rendered and most non New England fans are gleefully of the mind that Brady is a proven cheater. Any attempt to disabuse them of that notion using facts or pointing out flaws in the Wells report is futile and will likely just end in frustration for those who think otherwise.

Now all that is left is the sentencing stage. At this point, those hoping for some form of vindication for Brady and the Patriots ought to come to terms with the idea that it will never happen.
 

JimBoSox9

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They just don't have the talent level on the sports side of 538 to match their other coverage areas, regardless of Silver.  Neil Pane in particular is their biggest volume producer and he's the weak link of the whole staff.
 

Ed Hillel

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Captaincoop said:
We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
 
He possibly lied, though, man. LIED. Who does that!?
 
In fact, I think the next time a pitcher beans someone, it's "more probable than not" that it was intentional, and denies it was intentional after the game, he should be suspended a minimum of 40 games.
 

Section15Box113

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4 6 3 DP said:
I believe Belichick gets suspended under the Sean Payton theory. In fact I think he may well get more than Brady. I hope I am wrong.
 
Now, that would be shocking and would reveal Goodell to be completely capricious. 
 
The report finds Kraft and BB to be untainted.  And the Commish suspends BB?  Not a chance.
 
Of course, I'm talking about him suspending TB for half a season based on...
 

Stitch01

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dcmissle said:
You both just scalded Stich's nuts with spilled coffee.

I can't rule this out; as I said, I think there is a 10% chance he leaves the reservation.

Now for the good news. If it's anything like this, the penalty is DOA at the reviewing judge's table. On these facts, it gets no deference. The split-the-difference game theory backfires cause it's taken too far.
Why? That punishment never holds.