#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
MarcSullivaFan said:
I don't know. His job is Tom Brady--if he has detailed notes that have relevant info, and they weren't used and instead your client becomes NFL Public Enemy #1 for the week, you'd go out guns blazing too.
If he didn't respond, wouldn't people assume that he must feel the report is accurate?
TheoShmeo said:
Well, that may seem like a minor thing, but this little fact undercuts my argument completely.
Regardless of whether our dust-up was a misunderstanding or not, I was simply wrong. Even worse, I was careless, and you were correct to demand an apology.
All good, Average Reds.
If we're going to demonize someone here, it wont be me, you or even Myt1.
Roger Goodell, I'm looking at you.
If we're going to demonize someone here, it wont be me, you or even Myt1.
Roger Goodell, I'm looking at you.
I'm trying to figure out who the demon of terrible leadership would be. Maybe of leaky boats.
Listened on Craig & Boomer. Esiason says:
"...after the Baltimore Ravens game, when Brady came out saying 'you gotta know the rulebook, you gotta know the rulebook', in relation to the formation when John Harbaugh was going crazy.
Now Grigson who's the GM of the Indianapolis Colts came from Baltimore, knows Harbaugh, Pagano comes from the Baltimore [Ravens], he knows Harbaugh, they're all in this together, right?
So I do believe that there's a sense, they do want to embarrass Tom Brady. I don't give a damn what anybody says. I believe in my heart, that there's no question in my mind that it is a tit-for-tat, and this is what they do in the NFL."
This is punctuated by the fact that Grigson warned of the deflated balls before the AFC game and yet there is no BASELINE record of the PSI before the game? You have to be naive to think that happened unintentionally.
"...after the Baltimore Ravens game, when Brady came out saying 'you gotta know the rulebook, you gotta know the rulebook', in relation to the formation when John Harbaugh was going crazy.
Now Grigson who's the GM of the Indianapolis Colts came from Baltimore, knows Harbaugh, Pagano comes from the Baltimore [Ravens], he knows Harbaugh, they're all in this together, right?
So I do believe that there's a sense, they do want to embarrass Tom Brady. I don't give a damn what anybody says. I believe in my heart, that there's no question in my mind that it is a tit-for-tat, and this is what they do in the NFL."
This is punctuated by the fact that Grigson warned of the deflated balls before the AFC game and yet there is no BASELINE record of the PSI before the game? You have to be naive to think that happened unintentionally.
The problem is that he actually did lie in other parts when "he had no reason to". The reality is that we all lie all the time, regardless of whether there's a reason to or not. Beyond all this, there's the reality that Brady probably had no idea who McNally was by name because I doubt that Jas referred to him that way (he assigned the nickname "Bird" to McNally on his smart phone and dollars to doughnuts that's all he ever called him around others).chonce1 said:
FWIW this Vikings fan's (and lawyer's) take, after reading the report and much of the last 20 pages above:
1. Yes, the balls were likely intentionally deflated and likely intentionally deflated by McNally in the bathroom, as found by Wells. Ie the information in the report, including the text messages, and the disproportionate drop in PSI in the Pats balls vs. the Colts', suggests intentional deflation. The case that the Wells report is absurd, incompetent etc has not been made out IMO.
2. It does seem unlikely that McNally would do this on his own volition without express or implied consent from Brady, likely thru/with JJ.
3. This is not trivial misconduct. If one team's equipment guy got unauthorized access to, and altered, baseballs after the umps rubbed them up, for the purpose of helping his team's pitchers, for eg, this would be acknolwedged as a significant breach IMO. No, the ball tampering did not affect the result of the game but I am not sure that matters much except tothe pride of Pats fans.
4. There are plausible conspiratorial angles, which could operate independently or in combination:
a. Brady was set up by McNally -- who (on this theory) was pissed at Brady for one reason or another, and deflated the balls lower than Brady's preferred 12.5 knowing or suspecting that this would be found out. "I will give him a fucking balloon..Fuck Tom...where are my new kicks etc"
b. The Pats were set up by the NFL. Knowing or suspecting that the Pats had a practice of post-inspection deflation, they allowed McNally unfettered access to the footballs before the game, knowing or suspecting him to be the deflator, despite being warned by Colts of a concern re this precise issue. I do struggle with how the meticulous Anderson et al could lose custody of the balls pre-game given the prior warning. The "evidence" relating to concerns about the radical over-inflation to 16 PSI (by the refs?!) in the Jets game suggests that there may be much more going on here.
5. If the Wells report finding is broadly accurate, then McNally and Jastremski very well may be in a position to ruin Brady's reputation by singing. Hence if Brady (and his reps) dont speak ill of either that could be seen as supportive (to some minimal extent, I think) of the accuracy of the Wells report. Ie one obvious Brady defense to this, already advanced in part, is: "I like 12.5. I dont want anything done to them after that...and if that stupid SOB McNally fucked with them to bring them under 12.5, I am pissed, he should be flayed." If we don't hear the second anti-Mcnally part of that defense, that suggests to me that Brady is afraid of McNally.
1. Yes, the balls were likely intentionally deflated and likely intentionally deflated by McNally in the bathroom, as found by Wells. Ie the information in the report, including the text messages, and the disproportionate drop in PSI in the Pats balls vs. the Colts', suggests intentional deflation. The case that the Wells report is absurd, incompetent etc has not been made out IMO.
2. It does seem unlikely that McNally would do this on his own volition without express or implied consent from Brady, likely thru/with JJ.
3. This is not trivial misconduct. If one team's equipment guy got unauthorized access to, and altered, baseballs after the umps rubbed them up, for the purpose of helping his team's pitchers, for eg, this would be acknolwedged as a significant breach IMO. No, the ball tampering did not affect the result of the game but I am not sure that matters much except tothe pride of Pats fans.
4. There are plausible conspiratorial angles, which could operate independently or in combination:
a. Brady was set up by McNally -- who (on this theory) was pissed at Brady for one reason or another, and deflated the balls lower than Brady's preferred 12.5 knowing or suspecting that this would be found out. "I will give him a fucking balloon..Fuck Tom...where are my new kicks etc"
b. The Pats were set up by the NFL. Knowing or suspecting that the Pats had a practice of post-inspection deflation, they allowed McNally unfettered access to the footballs before the game, knowing or suspecting him to be the deflator, despite being warned by Colts of a concern re this precise issue. I do struggle with how the meticulous Anderson et al could lose custody of the balls pre-game given the prior warning. The "evidence" relating to concerns about the radical over-inflation to 16 PSI (by the refs?!) in the Jets game suggests that there may be much more going on here.
5. If the Wells report finding is broadly accurate, then McNally and Jastremski very well may be in a position to ruin Brady's reputation by singing. Hence if Brady (and his reps) dont speak ill of either that could be seen as supportive (to some minimal extent, I think) of the accuracy of the Wells report. Ie one obvious Brady defense to this, already advanced in part, is: "I like 12.5. I dont want anything done to them after that...and if that stupid SOB McNally fucked with them to bring them under 12.5, I am pissed, he should be flayed." If we don't hear the second anti-Mcnally part of that defense, that suggests to me that Brady is afraid of McNally.
On page 36, we learn the referees' manual states: "If the footballs are delivered to you with a pressure between 12 1⁄2 and 13 1⁄2 pounds, you should not adjust the pressure, as that is the preference of that team‟s QB. If the pressure is below 12 1⁄2, inflate the ball to 12 1⁄2 and if above 13 1⁄2 deflate the ball to that pressure."
On the next page, the report says: "ome officiating crews adjust the air pressure in a game ball only if they determine that it has been set outside of the permissible range, while others may set the pressure of each football to 13.0 psi, regardless of where the balls are initially set by the team, to provide consistency."
So that's good to know. But let's believe everything we're told about the pregame testing during the AFCG.
On the next page, the report says: "
So that's good to know. But let's believe everything we're told about the pregame testing during the AFCG.
Or Brady made that case already but Wells chose to ignore it. We will never know, because Brady' s statements are ignored.
Your "unbiased view" contains the assumption that Brady is complicit. Why would Brady have given his express or implied consent to post-PSI check shenanigans? That's a huge leap to take, and it forms the basis of your conclusion.
WayBackVazquez said:
The more I read about the league's prior procedures regarding the balls the more it's clear that the league never gave a damn about how the balls were prepared or handled and only decided to care beginning with the AFCCG. Sloppy sloppy sloppy.
KillerBs said:
First off, yes it is trivial misconduct, which is the reason they put the rule with a minimal fine in the rule book. Second off, baseball players are constantly caught altering the ball. It pretty much comes with a 1 game fine in a 162 game season. I fail to understand how a ball boy messing with a ball is far more egregious than the pitcher doctoring a ball during play.
Plausible. As indicated yesterday, I would not be surprised if the shot across Harbaugh's bow lit the fuse on this. I'll show him about the rulebook ...SeoulSoxFan said:
Meanwhile, we still on at Salem State with Jim Gray?
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-brady-has-a-public-appearance-scheduled-tonight/
Seems so.
Minimum of $25k means it's a minor offense. That should mean that the range isn't $25k to a year suspension. Goodness.NickEsasky said:
It's like if the minimum penalty for petty theft is two days in county, but then the judge slaps a 30 year sentence in Alcatraz on you, citing, hey the two days was just the minimum!
This is key. The disproportionate drop in Pats balls vs. Colts' balls. This should be a bigger deal. The Colts balls, assumed to all be at 13.0 at the start, did not drop enough if you apply the same criteria that the Wells report did to the Patriots balls (i.e. 67-71 deg F inside, 48 deg F outside). In fact, doing a calculation using the ideal gas law (as the scienticians in the Wells report did), a ball at 13.0 PSI going from 67-71 deg F to 48 deg F should have had a PSI drop of 3.6-4.3%. The Colts' balls, which again started at 13.0, and included one measurement of 12.95 psi and another of 12.75 in two different balls, only dropped 0.9-2.3%. This fact alone undermines the entire foundation of the "Patriots are cheating!" argument because it is based on the "disproportionate drop in psi" between Pats' and Colts' balls, and the Colts' balls, aka the control, aka the gold standard, are junk.KillerBs said:
ivanvamp said:
Not even. The league has to find that it's appropriate for Brady to be punished first, because he's not the one who (more probably than not) deflated balls.
It's like catching a kid leaving a store without paying for a candy bar, determining he probably did it intentionally, and then deciding that his mother had general knowledge of the kid shoplifting because the kid gave her candy bars from time to time, despite the fact that she told the kid once "don't pay too much for candy bars.".
Then throwing the mother in prison for 20 years.
Ed Hillel said:
If Yee's attack on Wells and the league office is just the opening salvo in the Brady defense campaign, I'm curious as to what kind of wedge, if any, is driven between Kraft and Brady as a result. While Kraft is probably just as upset about the way the investigation was conducted and presented, yesterday's statement seems to indicate he finds it more prudent as an owner to bite his tongue and roll over for the greater sake of league rather than mount what he envisions will ultimately be a fruitless defense of his quarterback.
I'm guessing Brady's camp could give two shits about maintaining this "integrity of the shield" facade and upholding Kraft's standing amongst the rest of the owners. Based on the tone of Yee's statement, I don't see them taking what they perceive to be a slanted hatchet job lying down, particularly when they stand to lose millions in future endorsements as a result. Brady also strikes me as a guy who will take it very personally, assuming he's mostly innocent, if he feels Kraft failed to show his support in the aftermath of all this, or worse, if he feels undermined by Kraft's willingness to accept the report's findings and any resulting discipline without much of a fight.
It will be interesting to see which side of this Belichick falls on--does he back his QB, or does he cater to his owner's wishes and move on ASAP? I lean more toward the latter, given Belichick's history of detachment with his current players and the distraction a protracted fight with the league would certainly cause. Don't imagine Belichick will be rushing to Brady's defense if he thinks Brady ultimately deceived and embarrassed him either.
KillerBs said:
I agree with your well-articulated post except for this point -- the NFL has already set a precedent with issues surrounding other balls, including the one involving your team and the Panthers. By the rulebook and by precedent the NFL has, until this time, regarded the issue as being a relatively minor one. It looks nontrivial now because others have made it out to be so.
J.McG said:
Kraft has no recourse. There's no appeal rights. He has to kneel on this because he literally has no other viable option. There is 0 upside to fighting this.
Brady is not in the same position. Kraft surely understands that.
As for Belichick, I expect he'll say that he supports Brady 100%, but it's a NFLPA matter at this time, and he can't comment on it.
theapportioner said:
I agree with this but am not sure that's now the real issue. IMO, they can now hang their hat on
(a) non-cooperation by by TB (the texts) and the NEP (the 2d or 5th interview); and
(b) misrepresentation or outright lies by TB.
I'm now more concerned that Kraft feels that TB misled him. That hasn't arisen yet, but if TB pursues his appeal and this goes to a full-blown arbitration under the CBA, who knows what will emerge. As for Goodell, this permits him to claim that there's been a violation of the more important principle, that is transparency and assistance in the investigation.
To me, that's a significant part of Wells' report.
(I apologize if this is duplicative. I've been tied up all day and haven't read this thread since early in the AM.)
There are too many serious problems with the data. Exponent did a good job of trying to cover as many bases as they could in the experiments, but they are still stuck with incomplete data and having to make a very weak but important assumption about the starting point for each ball. If the starting point for each ball was available, it may have indeed been damning to the Pats, but either way they don't have it. So any inference made about a discrepancy in pressure drop is flimsy. I don't believe a scientific journal would accept that data as is, despite the noble and impressive efforts of Exponent to dress it up.
What I give the Wells report credit for is that they established that
A) Yes McNally could have deflated the footballs in the bathroom in a minute and a half
B) The reason McNally would have used the bathroom is because the officials locker room was more crowded than usual before the game.
So they laid out a very plausible explanation for McNally's behavior and what he may have been up to. It's up to Brady now to defend himself. I am still of the opinion that this is a stupid controversy that doesn't impact the integrity of the game even if he did it, as evidenced by the fact that the officials apparently overinflated the Patriots balls significantly during the Jets game. I could care less what PSI a QB uses, so long as it is still an NFL regulation size football he is throwing. But that of course won't save Tom, so he needs to come out strong one way or the other.
What's amazing to me is the number of people agonizing over how "this doesn't look good." Since when did we start getting heartbroken over the mere appearance of impropriety, especially over something so insignificant? "This is going to tarnish his legacy." Really? That's the shit that keeps you awake at night? Pats grunts and assistant grunts probably let a couple of PSI out of some balls and it's most likely that Tom triggered it with a wink and nod. It didn't affect shit (check the results), and a comprehensive sting operation and subsequent million dollar report doesn't actually prove it. Yet, everyone is vomiting. Fuck me.
Jimbodandy said:
Are you going to feel quite so blithe when the Ginger Hammer docks the NEP a high draft choice and Vincent recommends TB's suspension for 6-8 games?
It's great that you're cruising along so smoothly through this mess, but it doesn't mean jack shit when it comes to what happens in the real world.
That's the real issue, not your mental state.
Jimbodandy said:
I, for one, don't have a single problem with accepting that statement and having a Coke and a smile
redsahx said:
It's more than flimsy, it's not valid at all. The Colts balls did not show a pressure drop that is even close to what would be expected based on temperature drop. The Wells report itself said the Patriots balls should have dropped around 1-1.3 psi if they started at 67-71 deg F and then were moved to 48 deg F. But they never applied that same criteria to the Colts' balls, which should have also dropped somewhere between 1-1.3 psi . They didn't, they dropped on average 0.45 psi. The Patriots balls, as stated in the Wells report, dropped 1.02 psi.
So the Patriots balls dropped 1.02 psi, which is on the lower end of the range predicted by the calculations done by the Wells report investigators themselves, while the Colts balls dropped 0.45 psi and somehow the conclusion is that the Patriots balls are out of whack.
You get into transparency and fairness, and the League is in trouble. This Reiss critique headlines ESPN.com as of a couple of minutes ago:Otis Foster said:
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4781236/turning-a-critical-eye-on-wells-report
We've covered Florio. Some of the network partners are not playing ball so well.
Otis Foster said:
Please. A suspension of that length would never hold up in arbitration. The last high draft choice that they lost didn't exactly slow them down, did it?
You can't bring me down, but thanks for reintroducing "blithe" to my vocabulary. That's fucking sweet.
dcmissle said:
I get your point about the testing, but what about non-cooperation? Why wouldn't TB's counsel take up the offer to filter only texts dealing with the inflation question? If in fact the NFL had conducted the prior investigations, why didn't Bingham permit a 2d round on McNally by phone?
I (and I suspect you) have both been around long enough to recognize non-responsive behavior and what usually lies behind it.We also recognize permissible inferences, when appropriate. I almost wonder if Wells and PW laid a snare for the NEP to fall into.
They interviewed officials who worked at all Pats home games in 2014. The only relevant information included in the report is their recollection of how and when the balls were delivered to the playing field. There is no testimony included concerning the PSI of the balls when they were supposedly checked. There is also no testimony given about the security of the balls in the officials locker room other than a general description of the layout and a vague suggestion that Mc Nally might have had the opportunity to fuck with the balls.LuckyBen said:
This stuff seems to be intentionally omitted sort of like you would omit the fact that you had a candy bar display right next to the front door of your store in a shoplifting investigation.
Exponent was given the conditionals by Wells' team, which when considered makes it look like one of the lawyers did the calculations on his smart phone and gave them conditions to yield the desired result. Exponent, to their credit, makes a point that they had to use the numbers provided them by Wells' people, so that if the whole thing blows up in their face they have plausible deniability.amarshal2 said:
Here, in a nutshell are the problems, they requested that Exponent use a starting temperature of 65-67 (i.e. room temperature) but a halftime range of 71-74. So why would the clubhouse personnel be cranking the heat in the officials' locker room when it was empty? Or, if 71-74 was the actual temperature why use a lower temperature for the pre-game? To a casual observer this looks entirely like a case of Exponent's client looking for a favourable report and attempting to minimise the temperature change on the front end while maximising the rate of pressure increase on the back end. And for all that, combined with the time assumptions, they weren't able to produce a dramatic difference in expected pressure ranges.
If the temperature were constant (which I can give you assurance it was because new electronic heat sensor controls are really good at maintaining) the balls are within the expected pressure range. If the measurements happened a couple of minutes before they say they did, the balls are in the expected pressure range. But the conditionals set forth by Wells' investigators make it pretty clear that they started from the conclusion and worked their way backwards and massaged the evidence to fit the conclusions.
Otis Foster said:
Maybe becuase there was no point and it would have opened the door to a slippery slope. If the NFL had the texts from JJ and JM, then why do they need Tom's texts as well? Judging from what is left out of the report there is a really good chance that they also left out the responses from JJ and JM to Brady. E.g.:
Tom: did you do this?
JJ: No.
If Tom's testimony is left out of the report, I would also easily believe that text messages that do not support the conclusion were also left out. Tom knew the NFL at least had JJ and JM's responses to his texts, knew they were innocuous and decided to not open the Pandora's box of letting a lawyer into his phone. It may have started under the controlled conditions described in the report, but there is no knowing that it would not have snowballed.
BroodsSexton said:
If he was aware of them defalting footballs after the referees certified them why would he want them to have a copy of the rules. He could just say "F it. They can just inflate them to whatever they want and have it taken care of after the certification."
That omg u spaz one got me to believe Brady did it. Or wait no, it was the F-Tom one.Hagios said:
( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
It's usually not left to the person being questioned to decide that 'there's no point' in further disclosure.