#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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BroodsSexton

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Laser Show said:
And this is why I agree about the officiating thing being possible. I just don't see the media/other owners sticking up for the Pats. They'll just say something like "yea it was wrong but you shouldn't have cheated!!"

I still think it's unlikely but to think it would never happen is a little naive IMO. Maybe I'm too cynical though.

Edit: Everyone else seems to think it's silly so I'm probably wrong.
 
In my view, I don't think it's so much that Goodell is going to fix the game, as that the refs may be as impacted by the media frenzy, by the prospect that the Patriots are laying this thing at their feet, and also by the Patriots' "maybe they should check the rules" mentality.  Under the circumstances, the refs could be inclined to throw the flags a bit more aggressively, or turn a blind eye, against the Patriots' interests.  No fix required.  I think we may have seen this in the Colts game with the illegal formation (or ineligible receiver) penalty, which may have been legitimate, but also (at the time, to me) appeared to be a bit of a confusion/intention call by the referees.
 
On the other hand, I think Belichick et al don't give a fuck, and would probably prefer to motivate the team to play with a chip on their collective shoulder, thinking that even the officials are stacked against them, so they damn well better execute perfectly and not give the officials the chance to affect the game. 
 

PBDWake

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The idea that Goodell could plausibly fix the Super Bowl is ludicrous, if only for the fact that it would require a level of competence that, at every opportunity, Goodell has shown to be about as far away from as I am from Tom Brady in tossing footballs.
 

amarshal2

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RetractableRoof said:
I've reached a couple of conclusions.

The video leak is a message back to the Kraft party that "we can hang whatever we want on you, toe the line and be quiet". 
 
Your timeline is backwards.  Rumors of the ball boy video leaked before Kraft's comments.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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TheoShmeo said:
As a matter of logic, I agree...but that's exactly what both said.  
 
As others have observed throughout the thread, I hope we get to witness a scene that will evoke memories of Rozelle-Davis, with the side benefit of the chance to read the resulting tea leaves.
Btw, even though I've been skeptical about what some of your friends have said, I do appreciate you giving us the reports. Better to have more information than less, even if its not conclusive information.

And I agree wholeheartedly about Rozelle-Davis. I'd like nothing more at this point.
 

soxhop411

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theapportioner said:
Barring major new evidence, if Goodell punishes the Patriots, presumably Kraft retaliates in some way and Goodell is diminished.
 
If Goodell exonerates the Patriots, he already has Kensil as the fall guy for the botched investigation.
 
If Goodell is thinking rationally, he should choose the second option.
Given the way the year has gone I doubt Goodell knows how to think or act rationally
 

TheoShmeo

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PBDWake said:
The idea that Goodell could plausibly fix the Super Bowl is ludicrous, if only for the fact that it would require a level of competence that, at every opportunity, Goodell has shown to be about as far away from as I am from Tom Brady in tossing footballs.
Yes.  But it's not binary.  My concern is really more along the lines that Broods Sexton has outlined.  And the message from the NFL could be a lot more subtle than "fix the game."  It could, for example, be understood that the Patriots should not get the benefit of any doubt (or that close calls should go the Seahawks' way).  Again, that probably is just too much Oliver Stone and Dreith scars talking, but my concern, at least, was never about an outright fix.
 

lexrageorge

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If Goodell has indeed already made up his mind that the Pats cheated, regardless of whatever evidence and logical explanations are provided, and regardless of the fact that Pats have cooperated fully with the investigation, I can see how the Kraft/Goodell relationship would be off the charts hostile.  Kraft clearly doesn't enjoy being accused of cheating, especially if the allegation is totally false, as this one certainly appears to be. 
 
I'm not sure that has happened.  Maybe Goodell is just covering his bases through a full investigation, and the media sources are all blowing hot air.  However, the media narrative to date (entrenchment, distraught, guilt by weak circumstantial evidence, rumors of suspensions, etc.) certainly points to the possibility that Goodell made up his mind early on, and Kraft is not going to just accept such accusations lying down solely because he helped Goodell get and retain the job. 
 
Regarding game fixing:  It ain't gonna happen.  But do expect the usual litany of bad calls.  Hopefully, the Pats are winning by 30 in the 4th quarter to make any such calls moot.  
 

theapportioner

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TheoShmeo said:
OK, I have heard again from my two friends, who do not know each other but are saying consistent (and not particularly surprising) things.
 
Caveats (and to hopefully avoid another round of meta discussion):
 
- I'm passing stuff on because I know that some people here, like me, find these inputs to be interesting (regardless of what discount level they may apply); and
 
- Really, if you think this is just made up nonsense (by my two friends or me), I suggest you simply look away. 
 
Consistent with Wells' comments about the length of the investigation, there will indeed be no penalty before the game.  That said, the level of enmity between Goodell and Kraft is off the charts.  A battle of sorts is shaping between them that will take place after the game. 
 
Again, none of that is surprising.
 
Theo, don't know if your friends have info on this, but what I'd love to know is how independent the Wells investigation is. Is the NFL giving him free rein to conduct his own investigation without meddling, and will they accept whatever Wells concludes?
 

RetractableRoof

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amarshal2 said:
Your timeline is backwards.  Rumors of the ball boy video leaked before Kraft's comments.
It was after the BB the science guy did the "screw you, you have no evidence" press conference.
 

baghdadjamie

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Gambler7 said:
http://youtu.be/ng2CIsOCchE
Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports found Mike Kensil at media day. Refused to talk and walked away to hide. 1:10 into the video. 
This had me crying!
More talent here than the AVN awards!
 

Marciano490

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Gambler7 said:
http://youtu.be/ng2CIsOCchE
Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports found Mike Kensil at media day. Refused to talk and walked away to hide. 1:10 into the video. 
 
After watching this video, I'm super curious if Chuck Z has the standard issue kicker's haircut.
 

TheoShmeo

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theapportioner said:
 
Theo, don't know if your friends have info on this, but what I'd love to know is how independent the Wells investigation is. Is the NFL giving him free rein to conduct his own investigation without meddling, and will they accept whatever Wells concludes?
Sorry, I have no information on that.
 
I've been passing on everything I've heard that seems material.
 

BroodsSexton

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Gambler7 said:
http://youtu.be/ng2CIsOCchE
Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports found Mike Kensil at media day. Refused to talk and walked away to hide. 1:10 into the video. 
 
That's a pretty funny video, actually.  Highlight at 8:30 when he interviews Hauschka (from Massachusetts) who says that his loyalties are with Seattle "for now" and genuinely looks like he might sympathize with the Pats a little bit.
 

DJnVa

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One thing to remember, the leak about the ballboy and the bathroom said that they are trying to find out if there was any wrongdoing. One could read that as them acknowledging that just the 90 seconds isn't enough, they need more. The fact that he disappeared for 90 seconds is baked into the equation and they were still saying they needed to find out if there was something untoward going on--and outside a smoking gun or confession, they don't have that.
 
That leak could have come out the opposite way--"A league source has said that the NFL has video showing Patriots attendant going into locked room with the balls for 90 seconds. Currently the league is determining if there could be an innocent reason for this."
 
The fact that they have the video and they are still trying to ascertain wrongdoing could mean even they know it's not enough. Otherwise, the video and 90 seconds would be enough for them to say guilty. They wouldn't need more.
 

Jettisoned

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jsinger121 said:
 
I can't believe I'm actually dreading watching a Super Bowl in which my favorite team is a participant.  I'm about 50/50 on whether I ever actually watch NFL football again after February 1st.
 

SumnerH

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simplyeric said:
Right.  That's what I've said, no?
My whole objection was to you saying "Once the internal temperature of the ball reached equilibrium with external temp, there really wouldn't be additional evaporation would there?". When in reality as you now say:

So the balls temp could have been as much 4d F below ambient air.
I didn't check your math on the exact amount, but that's the main point: the ball's temperature could be lower than the external temp by enough to affect things noticeably.
 

RetractableRoof

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This scares me to a point. If the Pats are racing around on some ultra emotional war cry driven craze - I hope they remain disciplined enough to properly maintain the patience the read-option defense will take. I could see them getting burned over-pursuing something in their zeal.

I hope I'm wrong.
 

cornwalls@6

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If Goodell has gone all in on a feud with Kraft/Patriots(which I'm skeptical of), I think it would absolutely be his Waterloo. As much other owners around the league may be weary/envious of the Patriots continued success, ultimately the smart and stable ones would realize they can't have a rogue commissioner smearing franchises, damaging the brand, and generally running amok, just to settle petty scores. They would have to reign him in, and the only real way to do that would be to show him the door. They would also almost certainly come to the realization that if Goodell could do this to the Patriots, he could do it to them. Ultimately, I think we're seeing an egotistical, but very limited in competence, guy who is in over his head, and unable to control what should have been a 24-48 hour side-bar story. I think he looks for some face-saving way out in a few weeks that does not include major, or even any, penalties against the Patriots.    
 

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DrewDawg said:
One thing to remember, the leak about the ballboy and the bathroom said that they are trying to find out if there was any wrongdoing. One could read that as them acknowledging that just the 90 seconds isn't enough, they need more. The fact that he disappeared for 90 seconds is baked into the equation and they were still saying they needed to find out if there was something untoward going on--and outside a smoking gun or confession, they don't have that.
 
That leak could have come out the opposite way--"A league source has said that the NFL has video showing Patriots attendant going into locked room with the balls for 90 seconds. Currently the league is determining if there could be an innocent reason for this."
 
The fact that they have the video and they are still trying to ascertain wrongdoing could mean even they know it's not enough. Otherwise, the video and 90 seconds would be enough for them to say guilty. They wouldn't need more.
 
There were two leaks about the ballboy.

Leak one is to Glazer and while they say they're trying to tell if there's any wrongdoing they also call poor Murph a person of interest (kind of heavy handed language by the way).  It is also a pretty biased leak because it leaves out (1) that the other room the guy went to is a bathroom and (2) that he was in this mysterious other room for 90 seconds.
 
Kraft hears this and wigs the fuck out.  Wells had told everybody to be quiet like two hours earlier and somebody is leaking a misleading part of the investigation? So Kraft gives his "get your shinebox speech" and the Pats leak the story that yes, you got us, the ballboy took the 12 balls to the head during his piss break.
 

Van Everyman

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ifmanis5 said:
The unfortunate reality that this controversy points out is that the Patriots now have literally zero allies. I know many in the media like to point to Goodell and Kraft's cozy relationship but Ballghazi appears to have broken that, if it was ever even really a thing. Pats have nowhere to go now. They are on their own now more than ever.
Good. Burn it. Burn it all.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Theo's sources' view about the relationship with Goodell and Kraft seems probably right to me, and is also ominous.  I'm not worried about refs fixing the game, but more worried about the final result of the NFL's investigation.  Basically, there have been what seem like some well timed leaks, starting with the one by Mort, and then seeming to coincide with each statement by the Patriots.  The leak to Florio was highly specific and it's hard to imagine it not coming from the NFL, as a reaction to Kraft throwing the gauntlet down.  It's also entirely consistent with Schefter's report that the NFL is entrenched.  The league is dealing from somewhat of a position of strength here, and that worries me a great deal.  They can't really be sued.  The public is wishcasting at every opportunity that this is a true "Patriots cheating" story, so he knows that if that's his report, the Patriots start way behind in the court of public opinion.  And it sounds from Theo's earlier reports as though Goodell has got many owners on his side, and he's probably trying to consolidate all that.
 
Kraft's a powerful guy, but a knock down drag out with the league is going to be very difficult and the NFL if it wants to smear the Patriots is going to have a rabid group of reporters and fans willing to lap up every single drop.
 

theapportioner

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cornwalls@6 said:
If Goodell has gone all in on a feud with Kraft/Patriots(which I'm skeptical of), I think it would absolutely be his Waterloo. As much other owners around the league may be weary/envious of the Patriots continued success, ultimately the smart and stable ones would realize they can't have a rogue commissioner smearing franchises, damaging the brand, and generally running amok, just to settle petty scores. They would have to reign him in, and the only real way to do that would be to show him the door. They would also almost certainly come to the realization that if Goodell could do this to the Patriots, he could do it to them. Ultimately, I think we're seeing an egotistical, but very limited in competence, guy who is in over his head, and unable to control what should have been a 24-48 hour side-bar story. I think he looks for some face-saving way out in a few weeks that does not include major, or even any, penalties against the Patriots.    
His best course of action would be to give Wells the space to conduct a proper investigation and rein in the rogue elements in his office. That's the best way for him to save face. Being tough and vindictive just to settle a score will backfire and make the Patriots martyrs to some people, at least.
 

OnWisc

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TheoShmeo said:
OK, I have heard again from my two friends, who do not know each other but are saying consistent (and not particularly surprising) things.
 
Caveats (and to hopefully avoid another round of meta discussion):
 
- I'm passing stuff on because I know that some people here, like me, find these inputs to be interesting (regardless of what discount level they may apply); and
 
- Really, if you think this is just made up nonsense (by my two friends or me), I suggest you simply look away. 
 
Consistent with Wells' comments about the length of the investigation, there will indeed be no penalty before the game.  That said, the level of enmity between Goodell and Kraft is off the charts.  A battle of sorts is shaping between them that will take place after the game. 
 
Again, none of that is surprising.
 
But it does lead to a worry (and one that exists even if you completely discount the above) on my part. 
 
This may have been mentioned by others up thread and apologies, if so, but might Goodell order a Ben Dreith style officiating job in this game?  I know that the public will be carefully scrutinizing how the SB is called but a hugely bad call or two against the Pats would fit right in with the rest of these playoffs so it's not as if it would necessarily stand out as a "revenge call."
 
PS: While I have been typing a bunch of posts have addressed this very issue.  Oops.
I wouldn't worry too much. Can't believe I'm saying this but I don't think even Roger is that stupid. He's got enough money in the bank that even if he's out of a job this time next week he's still set for life without ever needing to set an alarm clock again. The absolute last thing he needs is to give someone the opportunity to come after his savings and freedom somewhere down the line because evidence emerged that he impacted the officiating of the Super Bowl.
 

Hendu At The Wall

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RetractableRoof said:
The video leak is a message back to the Kraft party that "we can hang whatever we want on you, toe the line and be quiet". Given that, there is no way the Pats escape all punishment - unless they declare all out war, create and distribute a high quality video...
 
The league cannot effectively hang whomever they want. At some point next year, the Pats will play in a game in the 40s or below. If the Pats are even so much as fined for this debacle, they will use the first opportunity to challenge the ball inflation during that game - and all subsequent cold weather games. In each case, these challenges will of course be successful.
 
This is not a good look for the league.
 
The current rules & procedures, which effectively require games to be played with balls below 12.5 psi in cold weather, will probably have to change or at least be clarified.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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I did a quick scan of this tome, and I checked the first post, but has anyone ever seen what the PSI of the Colts' balls were post game, or was it just reported that they were legal?
 

Ed Hillel

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Hendu At The Wall said:
 
The league cannot effectively hang whomever they want. At some point next year, the Pats will play in a game in the 40s or below. If the Pats are even so much as fined for this debacle, they will use the first opportunity to challenge the ball inflation during that game - and all subsequent cold weather games. In each case, these challenges will of course be successful.
 
This is not a good look for the league.
 
The current rules & procedures, which effectively require games to be played with balls below 12.5 psi in cold weather, will probably have to change or at least be clarified.
 
It the Pats get hit heavy, I can all but guarantee you the NFL will change the rule in part because of this very issue. NFL will provide the balls and you can't make any challenges.
 

simplyeric

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SumnerH said:
My whole objection was to you saying "Once the internal temperature of the ball reached equilibrium with external temp, there really wouldn't be additional evaporation would there?". When in reality as you now say:


I didn't check your math on the exact amount, but that's the main point: the ball's temperature could be lower than the external temp by enough to affect things 
 
Gotcha, and a fair correction.
 
Once the internal temp of the ball reached a certain point, it would stay somewhere between dry-bulb and wet-bulb temp.  There would be additional continual evaporation, but it would only effect the internal air temp by some small intermediate amount.
 
I am actually surprised that the wet bulb temp could be as much as 4d lower than dry bulb, on a cold raining day.  I thought the RH would be higher, and the wet bulb/dry bulb difference would be effective zero.
 

Corsi

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LoneWarrior1 said:
 
Damn, wish I had taken the over on TV mentions earlier in the week.
 
Still available on Bovada.
 

SPECIAL (NE @ SEA) - How many times will "Deflated" Balls be said during the game? 
From kickoff until final whistle. Live pictures only, any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager. Halftime does not count towards wager. Must clearly say "Deflated" or "Deflate". Book Manager's decision is final. NO OVERLIMITS
 
Over 3 (-140)
Under 3 (EVEN)
 
edit: Over has moved from -130 to -140 since opening.
 

hikeeba

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Freddy Linn said:
 
Deitsch had a piece earlier this week that said most of the coverage would be pre-game and few mentions in-game.
 
Did he happen to mention if there would be over or under 2.5 mentions?
 
Edit: (Apparently the mention line has shifted....)
 

Dewy4PrezII

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This thread and this topic are like a car crash.  I don't want to look but I can not stop myself.  That said, I am so tired of this crap and I may be done with Football after Sunday.  Probably not, but if this is another Spygate pissing match that costs the Patriots draft picks and the punishment far exceeds the crime like it did then as opposed to the 1998 Bronco's Vaseline incident which cost each lineman a whopping $5,000 for lathering their arms in the slick substance "to stay warm" I will certainly consider it. 
 
Also, I am dreading listening to the broadcast Sunday when every other sentence will be about deflated balls with every 5th sentence also mentioning spygate.
 
I know we won't have a resolution before Sunday, and the NFL continues to leak shit just to smear the Patriots.  Public opinion has been formed using misinformation and disinformation with speculation to fill in the tremendous gaps...but at least the folks in New England have groups of fellow fans.  Those of us in other places have few neighbors sympathetic to the "cheaters" and I am an intense/passionate fan whose mouth sometimes gets him into a little trouble.  Thankfully I will not be out at a bar watching the game because either me or others would leave on a stretcher or in a police car.
 

Ed Hillel

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Let's add Stephen A. to the white list. This is maybe the funniest diatribe on anything I have ever heard. Before anyone asks, I can't even start to explain. Wait until tonight when it's On Demand.
 

Hendu At The Wall

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Ed Hillel said:
 
It the Pats get hit heavy, I can all but guarantee you the NFL will change the rule in part because of this very issue. NFL will provide the balls and you can't make any challenges.
 
So they could hit the Pats hard for playing with balls which are outside of a given psi range and at the same time dictate that game balls need not conform to any given psi range?
 

RetractableRoof

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Hendu At The Wall said:
The league cannot effectively hang whomever they want. At some point next year, the Pats will play in a game in the 40s or below. If the Pats are even so much as fined for this debacle, they will use the first opportunity to challenge the ball inflation during that game - and all subsequent cold weather games. In each case, these challenges will of course be successful.
 
This is not a good look for the league.
 
The current rules & procedures, which effectively require games to be played with balls below 12.5 psi in cold weather, will probably have to change or at least be clarified.
I said the league's message was "they could hang WHATEVER they wanted on the Pats", not whomever. They could assess a minor fine for an indivdual intentionally manipulating the ball pre-game. They could decide to simply say it was organizationally intentional and assess a larger penalty. The message was to "be quiet while the league decides how to handle your punishment because we've already decided you've done something punishment worthy".
 

DJnVa

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Brohamer of the Gods said:
I did a quick scan of this tome, and I checked the first post, but has anyone ever seen what the PSI of the Colts' balls were post game, or was it just reported that they were legal?
 
 
There are no reports of the PSI of the Colts balls anywhere with an actual number attached.
 

Hendu At The Wall

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RetractableRoof said:
I said the league's message was "they could hang WHATEVER they wanted on the Pats", not whomever. They could assess a minor fine for an indivdual intentionally manipulating the ball pre-game. They could decide to simply say it was organizationally intentional and assess a larger penalty. The message was to "be quiet while the league decides how to handle your punishment because we've already decided you've done something punishment worthy".
 
I understand what you're saying. I'm saying that they can't do this because next year there will be cold weather games.
 
Fining the pats AND changing the rules seem fairly incompatible with each other. Changing the rules would have to reflect a tacit admission that cold weather deflates footballs.
 

Stitch01

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They'd just put the whole thing in the hands of the refs and the league going forward and say "refs determination that the ball is appropriate for use is final regardless of specs"
 

Tito's Pullover

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Stitch01 said:
They'd just put the whole thing in the hands of the refs and the league going forward and say "refs determination that the ball is appropriate for use is final regardless of specs"
Which, of course, was exactly their determination in the Colts game.
 

Shelterdog

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RetractableRoof said:
I said the league's message was "they could hang WHATEVER they wanted on the Pats", not whomever. They could assess a minor fine for an indivdual intentionally manipulating the ball pre-game. They could decide to simply say it was organizationally intentional and assess a larger penalty. The message was to "be quiet while the league decides how to handle your punishment because we've already decided you've done something punishment worthy".
 
They can't hang whatever though.  Technically there's apparently a burden of proof on the league (it's so hard to tell how this works since the league's various policy manuals aren't public) and also apparently an appeal before an arbitrator.  Practically speaking though the bigger issue is that if there's no freaking case it's idiotic to draft this out for months though hearings and whatnot just to show that Goodell's balls aren't deflated.