#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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TheRealness

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dcmissle said:
The right guy shows up, just in time. So with this information, one presumably could match it against what Jastremski and McNally provided, right?
The theory behind obstruction has always been that the phone records of those two might be incomplete and that incriminating stuff could be on TB's phone alone. But if there is a complete match between their content and Tom's records, nothing among these three was lost.
But, unfortunately, this would not include incriminating messages to other parties, and spoliation is spoiliation.
It all looks incriminating, and what Tom has just lost in the court's eyes is the benefit of the doubt. Especially if that earlier phone is still hangin around.
That goes to credibility of Tom Brady though. This appeal is heavily based on due process, and only a small portion of the appeal is about whether Tom actually did it or not. If you assume Brady is guilty, that doesn't address the main part of this appeal which is that they didn't have he right to suspend him even if they "proved" he did it. I know it's more fun to argue about what actually happened and whether he is guilty or not, but at this stage it is boring appeal lawyer time where procedural arguments like the ones the NFLPA is proffering are the ones that will win the day in this case. The hype of him deleting his cell phone is something nice for the media to feed on, but I doubt will sway the outcome of this appeal.
 

DJnVa

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Yahoo is reporting that Brady was offered "at least a 50% reduction" in suspension if he admitted guilt and Brady turned them down.
 
I would assume this was after Brady told them about the destroyed phone, likely knowing how that would play in public.
 

Bleedred

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dcmissle said:
He is not. But he also embarrassed himself on Court TV predicting that OJ would be convicted in the murder case because the jury came back quickly.

But let's be honest. If we were to swap out Tom Brady and swap in Peyton Manning, we'd be right there with Toobin.
Toobin didn't say anything about anything other than "if only Brady had admitted at the beginning that he did something and settled earlier, then he wouldn't be here, but because he's been so stupid to push this, he finds himself where he is today."  That's a paraphrase, but it's an accurate description of the level of analysis he provided.  He clearly didn't know a thing about the case...or at least, he didn't articulate anything to suggest he did.  
 

soxhop411

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DrewDawg said:
Yahoo is reporting that Brady was offered "at least a 50% reduction" in suspension if he admitted guilt and Brady turned them down.
 
I would assume this was after Brady told them about the destroyed phone, likely knowing how that would play in public.
“@ProFootballTalk: NFL offered Tom Brady ”at least 50 percent reduction“ in exchange for admission of guilt http://t.co/PRTbWNiEU6”

Also being reported by PFT
 

tims4wins

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So that pretty much confirms that all the NFL cares about is the appearance of control.

Which is ironic since these matters eventually are out of their control when they get to court, and they lose.
 

dcmissle

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Alright, one thing is settled definitively.

We can forget about the supposed sanctity of settlement negotiations.

Florio is carrying an obvious leak from the NFL. RG offered a 2 to 3 game reduction in the suspension in exchange for -- admission of guilt in deflating participation, admission of obstruction. And an apology. If the apology were really heartfelt, maybe TB loses only one game.

So the world knows. At least one version. Now somebody try to unring that bell.

Yes, this would be piling on. Look at how generous RG was prepared to be -- and still may be prepared to be. TB is being unreasonable!
 

ivanvamp

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dcmissle said:
But let's be honest. If we were to swap out Tom Brady and swap in Peyton Manning, we'd be right there with Toobin.
 
Not me.  Peyton has never given us any indication that we should question his integrity.  Ever.  If he says he did nothing wrong, and is willing to take this all the way to court, and if what scientific information existed backed up his claim, then I'd say there must be another good reason for this phone issue.  I'd absolutely give him the benefit of the doubt.  He's earned it.
 
Other players, perhaps not.  Peyton?  Yes.
 
And dammit, so has Brady.  
 

djbayko

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dcmissle said:
The right guy shows up, just in time. So with this information, one presumably could match it against what Jastremski and McNally provided, right?

The theory behind obstruction has always been that the phone records of those two might be incomplete and that incriminating stuff could be on TB's phone alone. But if there is a complete match between their content and Tom's records, nothing among these three was lost.

But, unfortunately, this would not include incriminating messages to other parties, and spoliation is spoiliation.

It all looks incriminating, and what Tom has just lost in the court's eyes is the benefit of the doubt. Especially if that earlier phone is still hangin around.
This is what I suggested as a possibility upthread, but it got lost in the noise. Yee's statement hinted at sharing unprecedented electronic information and that the NFL ignored it for some reason. We also know that Yee is the one who sent the letter on 6/18 informing the NFL of the phone's destruction.

dcmissle / MSL - If something like the following hypothetical were true, would that save Brady's ass here?

Assume in its last iteration of requesting data from Tom, the NFL asked for;
* Any texts to / from a Patriots employee
* Between dates X and Y
* Regarding game ball preparation OR containing the words "deflate", "needle", or "ball"

And let's say that Brady's team can show through text metadata (sender, recipient, and date/time) that all of the texts with Patriots employees are already in the NFL's possession? Maybe except for Edleman and Gronk, because he often talks to those 2 outside of work, and they haven't been asked for their phones.

It might not be that simple, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they could come up with a reasonable accounting of all relevant texts and show that they really aren't missing much, if anything. There might be other creative methods they applied that I didn't think of here to further rule out texts as irrelevant.

It could explain why Kessler would be willing to offer up the information that the phone was destroyed - because they can show what was on the phone is irrelevant anyways, using the NFL's own search criteria.
 

LuckyBen

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tims4wins said:
So that pretty much confirms that all the NFL cares about is the appearance of control.
Which is ironic since these matters eventually are out of their control when they get to court, and they lose.
So they ask Brady to admit guilt and cut the suspension for failure to cooperate in half once he admits to deflating balls. The NFL is such a joke and this proves they've been out to get Brady from the moment he told Golden boy Harbaugh to check the rule book. It's amazing that Hollywood couldn't come up with a story like this.
 

djbayko

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DrewDawg said:
Yahoo is reporting that Brady was offered "at least a 50% reduction" in suspension if he admitted guilt and Brady turned them down.
 
I would assume this was after Brady told them about the destroyed phone, likely knowing how that would play in public.
That sounds similar to the police pressuring a suspect for hours because they just know they did it but need a confession because they don't have shit for evidence.
 

DJnVa

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So I wonder if his team advised him to take the deal? Or if the union wanted to go to war? Of if they have something they feel is a smoking gun that they were saving until court?
 

geoduck no quahog

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ivanvamp said:
...It is still incredible to me that the actual science tells us all that NOTHING HAPPENED.  Like, AT ALL.  And that Brady is getting punished for demanding that footballs be set to 12.5 psi, and for not giving Goodell his electronic information (though apparently, according to Brady's camp, he DID), which is his right.
 
Actually, my understanding is that the science does not prove the footballs were deflated. Neither does it prove they were un-touched. The data is too skimpy to prove anything.
 
In any case - this is no longer about the science, as every lawyer here is pointing out. It's about the issues the NFLPA raises.
 

RedOctober3829

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DrewDawg said:
Yahoo is reporting that Brady was offered "at least a 50% reduction" in suspension if he admitted guilt and Brady turned them down.
 
I would assume this was after Brady told them about the destroyed phone, likely knowing how that would play in public.
George Atallah already came out and said that any report of being close to any settlement was "rubbish".
 

DJnVa

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RedOctober3829 said:
George Atallah already came out and said that any report of being close to any settlement was "rubbish".
 
The Yahoo and PFT report doesn't contradict that. It doesn't say they were close. It says it was offered.
 

wilked

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There is no question in my mind that the NFL chose today (Pedro's retirement ceremony) intentionally.  None at all
 

ivanvamp

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geoduck no quahog said:
 
Actually, my understanding is that the science does not prove the footballs were deflated. Neither does it prove they were un-touched. The data is too skimpy to prove anything.
 
In any case - this is no longer about the science, as every lawyer here is pointing out. It's about the issues the NFLPA raises.
 
My understanding is that the science tells us that the footballs were essentially right where the ideal gas law would have expected them to have been, given the data we know.  So if he tampered with the footballs by deflating them, he basically deflated them like a tenth of a psi.  But yes, this is no longer about the science. And really, it never was, at least for the NFL.
 
It has never been about the truth either.  Or else the NFL would have squashed the Mortensen tweet on day 2 - you know, the one that erupted this entire "scandal".  
 

Witters

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dcmissle said:
He is not. But he also embarrassed himself on Court TV predicting that OJ would be convicted in the murder case because the jury came back quickly.
There was also this doozy: "This was a trainwreck for the administration...This law looks like it's going to be struck down." I don't put a lot of stock in Toobin's predictions or analysis at this point. But on this issue, it's a fair indicator of public sentiment, unfortunately.
 

cornwalls@6

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canderson said:
Anyone think this has a decent chance of keeping Brady out of the HOF? I don't know the NFL Hall voting history really at all.
Can't link anything right now for some reason, but there have been reports of hall of fame voters being polled on that question, with a majority indicating they would vote for him on first ballot regardless of Deflategate outcome.
 

Bleedred

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DJnVa

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So, we're all in agreement then that if Brady didn't destroy that cell phone the NFL has nothing? That's it right?
 
And what if Brady can produce something that shows he's had people destroy old phones in the past? I mean, people posting in this thread have said they do similar things.
 

ifmanis5

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ESPN.com coverage right now...
 
O'Connor: Brady to blame since he has no credible explanation.
Jackie Mac: Brady needs to move on.
Lester Munson: Brady has no shot in court.
 
Okay, then. I guess they're all impressed by the mountain of evidence presented by the NFL?
 

dcmissle

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So hats off to RG's legal team today. They are definitely squared away.

I don't know whether the gambit of filing preemptively to confirm the award in the SDNY will prevail. I do know it was worth trying. The NFL has been wary of Doty for many years, and he very recently overturned the AP discipline. Why didn't they try it before? (Saving it for the NEPs will be the reply).

Another interesting more practical concern. I have to up my estimate after today that TB will serve all 4 games -- but along with it the odds of something happening that I believed were pretty low: that the suspension could kick in mid to late season. I can see TB drawing a hard ass judge deeply offended by the pitching of the phone. He or she might say, "fine .. You get your preliminary injunction ... You are entitled to it." But guess what, "we cutting to the chase in this matter .. No screwing around." In this scenario, I could see a decision on the merits coming by late October or November. And if TB were to lose -- even though the legal analysis on a stay application pending appeal should be roughly the same -- I can see a Circuit Court denying the stay,. Not predicting it would happen, but it could. There is your December suspension.

I would still seek the PI, but this cloud is likely to hang over the entire effing season.

Edit -- I wouldn't allow Lester to keep you up tonight. He is not that impressive.
 

Bleedred

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dcmissle said:
So hats off to RG's legal team today. They are definitely squared away.

I don't know whether the gambit of filing preemptively to confirm the award in the SDNY will prevail. I do know it was worth trying. The NFL has been wary of Doty for many years, and he very recently overturned the AP discipline. Why didn't they try it before? (Saving it for the NEPs will be the reply).

Another interesting more practical concern. I have to up my estimate after today that TB will serve all 4 games -- but along with it the odds of something happening that I believed were pretty low: that the suspension could kick in mid to late season. I can see TB drawing a hard ass judge deeply offended by the sighing of the phone. He or she might say, "fine .. You get your preliminary injunction ... You are entitled to it." But guess what, "we cutting to the chase in this matter .. No screwing around." In this scenario, I could see a decision on the merits coming by late October or November. And if TB were to lose -- even though the legal analysis on a stay application pending appeal ahoukd be roughly the same -- I can see a Circuit court denying the stay,. Not predicting it would happen, but it could. There is your December suspension.

I would still seek the PI, but this cloud is likely to hang over the entire effing season.
You've been a straight shooter through this whole ordeal and one of the handful of posters I've read religiously and learned a ton from.  So you're concluding that Brady is pretty much fucked in court at this point, or rather, that this went from a more probablw than not victory to a more probable than not defeat.  Is that right?   The destruction of the cellphone is that much of a game changer.   Amazing that Yee would let it happen.   Caveat:  We haven't heard from Brady's side yet about why he did it.   
 
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dcmissle said:
So hats off to RG's legal team today. They are definitely squared away.

I don't know whether the gambit of filing preemptively to confirm the award in the SDNY will prevail. I do know it was worth trying. The NFL has been wary of Doty for many years, and he very recently overturned the AP discipline. Why didn't they try it before? (Saving it for the NEPs will be the reply).

Another interesting more practical concern. I have to up my estimate after today that TB will serve all 4 games -- but along with it the odds of something happening that I believed were pretty low: that the suspension could kick in mid to late season. I can see TB drawing a hard ass judge deeply offended by the sighing of the phone. He or she might say, "fine .. You get your preliminary injunction ... You are entitled to it." But guess what, "we cutting to the chase in this matter .. No screwing around." In this scenario, I could see a decision on the merits coming by late October or November. And if TB were to lose -- even though the legal analysis on a stay application pending appeal ahoukd be roughly the same -- I can see a Circuit court denying the stay,. Not predicting it would happen, but it could. There is your December suspension.

I would still seek the PI, but this cloud is likely to hang over the entire effing season.
 
 
It's extremely confusing for me to consider why a judge would be so offended by Brady wiping his phone, but not also be irate by the NFL manipulating evidence, leaking to control PR, a "neutral" investigator claiming privilege, and the complete farce of RG being the arbitrator reviewing his own decision.
 

j44thor

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Could the fact that the NFL filed with a court before the ink was even dry backfire on them?  Seems rather obvious what they are doing when they delay the ruling till just before training camp opens yet have the lawsuit filed in hours after releasing the findings.
 
Seems very shady on the surface.
 

Joe D Reid

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MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
It's extremely confusing for me to consider why a judge would be so offended by Brady wiping his phone, but not also be irate by the NFL manipulating evidence, leaking to control PC, a "neutral" investigator claiming privilege, and the complete farce of RG being the arbitrator reviewing his own decision.
The legal reason is that if you seek equitable relief (like an injunction), you are supposed to come to the court with clean hands. The practical reason is that judges are people too, and situations where a judge is likely to say "a pox on both your houses" dont lend themselves to judges wanting to stick their noses in private labor-union relationships.
 

ifmanis5

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j44thor said:
Could the fact that the NFL filed with a court before the ink was even dry backfire on them?  Seems rather obvious what they are doing when they delay the ruling till just before training camp opens yet have the lawsuit filed in hours after releasing the findings.
 
Seems very shady on the surface.
They've also already written RG's 'I needed to do a better job' #DFG concession speech after he loses the appeal.
 

dcmissle

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Bleedred said:
You've been a straight shooter through this whole ordeal and one of the handful of posters I've read religiously and learned a ton from.  So you're concluding that Brady is pretty much fucked in court at this point, or rather, that this went from a more probably than not victory to a more probable than not defeat.  Is that right?   The destruction of the cellphone is that much of a game changer.   Amazing that Yee would let it happen.   Caveat:  We haven't heard from Brady's side yet about why he did it.   
No, I have not gone from day to night on this. The odds have definitely shifted against us; by how much I don't know. And I would like to reserve judgment on that for a day or two at least. It's been a pretty depressing day, and it's not good to allow your judgment to be clouded by emotion.

I will have a more confident feel after some of this blows away -- and will feel that I'm on much more secure ground after we know which judge this is assigned to. That could take a while to resolve.
 

Stitch01

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December suspension risk easily worth it to keep fighting if Brady didn't do anything. I wouldn't care if the penalty if he was unsuccessful was he missed the next four team playoff games. He's more than earned the right to fight this regardless of team consequences.

Im not depressed at all by today's events.
 

Ed Hillel

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dcmissle said:
So hats off to RG's legal team today. They are definitely squared away.
I don't agree with you. The phone is obviously bad, but there are many arguments remaining on which the phone really has no relevance. Why was the punishment so severe? Why is Wells asserting privilege to prevent Brady's camp from gaining access to their "independent" investigation? Was Roger speaking with owners during the process? You can go on and on, and there's going to be plenty to make Goodell and the NFL look really bad here.

We also don't know the extent to which Brady cooperated, and which records he did give up. Yee's statement suggests there is a lot of stuff the NFL isn't telling us. I am willing to at least see what they have.
 

Bongorific

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There was a tinfoil hat argument in March/April that the NFL was dragging this out and leaking tidbits to keep the NFL in the news during the typical quiet season. With training camp about to start, the NFL doesn't need this story anymore.

That's why the leak to Stephen A is so troubling. The NFL made that the main crux of the appeal decision and leaked it a few hours before the decision to frame the story, to plant the seed that the cell phone is the issue to focus on. But what, really, is the NFL's motivation at this point? Why do they want to damage one of their most marketable player's reputation?

Maybe it is the former Jets employees now in the NFL offices extracting their revenge. If that was the real motivator, though, the ownership group wouldn't be defending RG to the hilt. In actuality, this is a labor issue. RG, the NFL, and it's owners will do whatever it takes to exert influence over the players. Doesn't matter if your're the best player of all time. This is about greed, money, and power.
 

dcmissle

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Stitch01 said:
December suspension risk easily worth it to keep fighting if Brady didn't do anything. I wouldn't care if the penalty if he was unsuccessful was he missed the next four team playoff games. He's more than earned the right to fight this regardless of team consequences.

Im not depressed at all by today's events.
Agree with you. Will be disappointed only if it comes to light that he egged those two on and pitched the phone to hide it.

Will be disappointed in Yee unless it comes to light that the pitched phone would have incriminated BB -- in which case, well done.

I expect neither will come to light.
 

Ed Hillel

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dcmissle said:
Will be disappointed in Yee unless it comes to light that the pitched phone would have incriminated BB -- in which case, well done.
Even then, why get rid of it? Who's going to take it? That's what I don't understand.
 

dcmissle

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Ed Hillel said:
I don't agree with you. The phone is obviously bad, but there are many arguments remaining on which the phone really has no relevance. Why was the punishment so severe? Why is Wells asserting privilege to prevent Brady's camp from gaining access to their "independent" investigation? Was Roger speaking with owners during the process? You can go on and on, and there's going to be plenty to make Goodell and the NFL look really bad here.

We also don't know the extent to which Brady cooperated, and which records he did give up. Yee's statement suggests there is a lot of stuff the NFL isn't telling us. I am willing to at least see what they have.
The team that is handling this for the NFL now, like Kessler, likely got its case with little choice in the outcome. They didn't call the shots. There were gaps in the fence and they are stringing bailing wire just like everybody else.!
 

RG33

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Stitch01 said:
December suspension risk easily worth it to keep fighting if Brady didn't do anything. I wouldn't care if the penalty if he was unsuccessful was he missed the next four team playoff games. He's more than earned the right to fight this regardless of team consequences.
Im not depressed at all by today's events.
I completely agree with your first point. The inevitable "Tom Brady is being selfish" angle will be more infuriating to me than any of this other nonsense. The guy has earned the right to do anything he damn well pleases to ensure his legacy is not tarnished.

I'm not depressed by today. I think the phone issue (until we hear Brady's side) hurts in the P.R. side of things, but I think no reduction in the suspension with all of the other issues that have been listed by the NFLPA and Kessel makes it more likely that a Judge finds issue with the NFL. If there had been a reduction to 1 game with the phone issue thrown out there, I don't think the NFLPA would have as strong of a chance in court.

I really hope Kraft re-ignites his ire to some extent though. His relenting, while understandable, was really tough to take and definitely hurt Brady in the public perception side of things.
 

ilol@u

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Why does it matter if he destroyed it? Brady said he wasn't willing to hand over his phone, what Brady does with the phone holds no relevance. If he keeps it a safe, destroys it, throws it in the ocean, etc. Why does it matter? Its not "damning evidence" as that moron Mark Brunnell stated.
 
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Ed Hillel said:
Even then, why get rid of it? Who's going to take it? That's what I don't understand.
 
Yeah, makes no sense.
 
Clearly Brady and Yee should be intelligent enough to understand that the NFL had no legal standing to get his phone. They are painting the picture that Brady was desperately engaged in destroying the phone with Wells on his way to collect it, when only a dummy would think Wells had any right to it.
 

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ilol@u said:
Why does it matter if he destroyed it? Brady said he wasn't willing to hand over his phone, what Brady does with the phone holds no relevance. If he keeps it a safe, destroys it, throws it in the ocean, etc. Why does it matter? Its not "damning evidence" as that moron Mark Brunnell stated.
 
Agree. TB12 should tell the NFL to piss off without subpoena with regards to a personal cell phone. 
 

DJnVa

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Well, he did.
 
But it's a PR battle and Brady got a standing 8 count today.
 

ivanvamp

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Goodell citing Brady's destruction of his phone is a load of crap.  Brady already made it clear he wasn't turning it over to Goodell.  Moreover, they DID offer to put all those calls and texts out there for the record, and said if Goodell wanted to know what's there he can contact the people on the other end of those calls and texts.  Goodell said that's not practical.  Too f-ing bad.  They spent $5 million and several months putting the Wells Report together.  They could have easily gone and tried to get this information that Brady offered.  They didn't.  
 
The destruction of the phone (honestly, whatever THAT means) sounds and looks bad, no doubt.  But it's nothing more than Brady saying, no really, you are NOT going to get my phone, period - something he already made abundantly clear.  Would it really have been any different in reality if Brady simply said, look, the phone is buried in a vault and it's never coming out, period?  If that had been the case, would Goodell have said, oh well, as long as you didn't destroy it, that's fine?
 
No, he wouldn't.  
 

j44thor

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Regarding the phone destruction, Brady also has a pretty compelling reason given his privacy has already been significantly invaded in the past with the Barstool scandal.  I'm sure Brady is hypersensitive to anything getting out into the public that he might not want after that episode, especially since nothing was done to Barstool/Portnoy as a result.
 
Intentionally not posting the details about the scandal, you can find it for yourself if you want to.
 

Bongorific

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ilol@u said:
Why does it matter if he destroyed it? Brady said he wasn't willing to hand over his phone, what Brady does with the phone holds no relevance. If he keeps it a safe, destroys it, throws it in the ocean, etc. Why does it matter? Its not "damning evidence" as that moron Mark Brunnell stated.
They were pretty far into the "anticipating litigation" test if it was destroyed around the time of the Wells investigation.

Even if it is true that he always destroys his cell phones, I don't think it's the best argument to make. I agree with not turning over the cell phone. That is a gross overstep of employer authority. To me, even if the demand was as limited as Wells claims, I'm still not complying unless we are in actual litigation discovery or there's a court order. Having said that, it wasn't very smart to destroy the phone.