#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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drbretto

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New poll is pretty easy. I never thought they did anything wrong from the beginning and only because I don't think something had to happen at all to spark this whole mess. I said this several thousand posts back and I'm sticking to it with a fair amount of confidence. 
 
Absolutely no one to blame for the start. It wasn't a big sting operation. It wasn't sabotage. It wasn't to get an unfair advantage. It was a fucking hurricane. The way it spread reminded me of a weather pattern and this was the perfect storm. A butterfly flapped its wings and tweeted about it. The NFL takes it seriously because the media takes it seriously because the fans take it seriously, so the pats have the take it seriously. That's like 4 pressure systems coming together (or however the fuck storms happen, I'm not Al Kaprielian) over the tiniest nothing of a catalyst. 
 
But, the media and the NFL made themselves look the worst. The media went too crazy over it and the NFL could have stopped it. They are going to win this poll by a lot. 
 

Gambler7

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http://www.jeffbenedict.com/index.php/blog/35-blog/395-credibility
[SIZE=12pt]The real scandal here rests with the media and a collapse in standards. Consider how this whole thing started – with a tweet. Right after the Patriots thrashed the Colts in Foxboro, columnist Kravitz posted this on Twitter:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]And just like that, 21 words gave rise to a colossal uproar. By the time Brady awoke the next morning, reporters across the country, all three television networks and every cable outlet were chasing the story. A day later the hashtag Deflategate was trending on twitter. Such is the power – and the danger – of social media. Some journalists can’t resist the urge to stake a flag in the ground and say I was here first.[/SIZE]
 
Suddenly, that ball that D’Qwell Jackson intercepted and brought to the Colts’ sideline is pretty important. It appears to be the only one that is inexplicably missing a couple pounds of pressure. Jackson is on record saying he felt nothing strange about the ball when he turned it over to a team employee. Presumably the NFL’s investigators are looking closely at the chain of custody from the time it left Jackson’s hands.
[SIZE=12pt]In “American Hustle,” Irving Rosenfeld, a small-time scam artist played by Christian Bale, says: “People believe what they want to believe.” That’s Tom Brady’s dilemma. And maybe that was the true intention of those who gave rise to Deflategate – if you can’t beat Tom Brady you might as well taint him.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Regardless of what NFL investigator Ted Wells reveals in the findings of his official report, most people’s minds have already been made up on whether Brady cheated. The only thing that might change that is if the league is willing to call out those who targeted him and the Patriots’ organization.[/SIZE]
 
 

dbn

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There is no Rev said:
I think I may have underestimated how people read E5 Yaz.

He's saying that the Patriots are not likely to be vindicated in the court of public opinion. And I would expect that he will be proven correct.

As I posted a few days ago, at best, they are The A-Team.
 
It's a waste of time defending E5 Yaz. He'll never be vindicated in this forum.
 

amarshal2

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dbn said:
 
It's a waste of time defending E5 Yaz. He'll never be vindicated in this forum.
I don't want to admit it, but I only hate E5 Yaz because I ain't E5 Yaz.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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My humble opinion is that Wells won't find anything conclusive during this investigation and the NFL will never apologize to the Patriots, especially if the reports/chatter about Goodell and Kraft's strained relationship is true.  What we will get instead is a change in how footballs are handled prior to every game.  I suspect that over or under-inflated footballs and customized grips will be  a thing of the past.  
 
The NFL just enjoyed its most highly rated Superbowl and the lead-up to it was heightened by #deflategate, a silly story that involved a team allegedly using underinflated footballs to its advantage in blowing out their opponent en route to the big game.  It had everyone talking and focused on the story during the first week before the game and it didn't involve any true crime, nor was there a real victim.  In short, it was the best kind of scandal - people got all hot and bothered but there was no real substance, crisis or social issue for the league.  
 
Now, its best to simply sweep this whole thing under the rug.  If the Colts or someone else tampered with the ball, that might actually harm the shield so its in the league's best interest to make this all go away.  And those hoping for the Patriots to be exonerated are fooling themselves.  Once again, in certain circles, the Belichick Patriots are cheaters and they will ever be thus.  
 

bankshot1

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Absent any evidence against the Patriots, IMO its in the NFL's and Goodell's best interest to issue a statement that there was no evidence to substantiate the allegations the Pats tampered with the footballs. 
 
Having the champion of your league being unfairly tarnished with false accusations is not in the league's best interest. IMO the report should explain to the public (assuming this is true) that the Pat footballs were measured at 12.5 psi, pre-game and naturally deflated to a "tick under" due to the colder temperature. 
 
Then address what changes if any will take place regarding footballs, their preparation, care and psi in the future.ie. an NFL task force will issue a report by June 30...
 
This may start to mend the rift between Kraft/Goodell.
 
Anything less than that, and Kraft with his team;s integrity still in question, may ask some very pointed questions in public.
 
I assume that any evidence found about the Colt's tampering will be swept under the rug, or dealt with in some undisclosed manner.
 
But having the charge against the Pats being left open, will only hurt the league.
 

rmaher

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I predict that there will be no significant findings of wrongdoing, but, like DeJesus said, the NFL will change the pre-game (and mid-game) football protocol.  Then to everyone's amazement, when they remeasure the footballs at halftime of every NFL game, they will realize that the PSI of a football is dynamic, and that it is dependent on temperature and weather conditions.
 

YTF

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Yeah, fuck that whole transparency shit and sweep it under the rug. Honestly I would have tons more respect for The Shield if they punished any person or organization that might be found to have conspired against the Patriots including anyone who falsely leaked info from within the league. Not holding my breath though.
 

E5 Yaz

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The worst outcome in all this, as the Jeff Benedict bog points out, is the doubt cast in the media about Brady. Spygate was always thought to be a Belichick thing -- the grand theory being that the information gleaned was used in game plans carried out by players who didn't know any better. This situation, though, has brought Brady himself into the spotlight.
 
It's stupid, of course, and the prevailing opinion will be that it's all been stupid. But whether Harbaugh really was involved in this because he wanted to take Brady down a peg, he got the sort of grade school payback Esiason spoke about last week.
 

Tony C

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bankshot1 said:
Absent any evidence against the Patriots, IMO its in the NFL's and Goodell's best interest to issue a statement that there was no evidence to substantiate the allegations the Pats tampered with the footballs. 
 
Having the champion of your league being unfairly tarnished with false accusations is not in the league's best interest. ....
 
The league's best interest is irrelevant (though you're right about what that interest is). The "league" isn't acting, Goodell and Wells are. Look at this from Goodell's eyes. If the league gives the Pats a clean bill of health it appears both thta his office was incompetent in how it handled the investigation and that he was intimidated by Kraft. It's definitely not in Goodell's interest for this to come out making the Pats look good -- the better they look the worse he looks.
 
I have no idea how truly "independent" this Wells and his investigation is. We'll find out, though. My guess is that, at a minimum, it's political enough that the best result would be obfuscating conclusions about "no conclusive evidence for/against" etc.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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Here's how I handicap the outcome:
40% insufficient evidence to find a violation. Pats are not punished, but are not exonerated.
25% No evidence of intentional misconduct, but Pats receive a slap on the wrist for not having their footballs up to code.
15% Pats are railroaded on the basis of inconclusive evidence, commissioner cites previous statements about low standard of proof for determining culpability. Inconclusive as to who was responsible. Lose a 1st round pick and are hit with a major fine.
15% investigation turns up an actual or purported smoking gun. Brady and/or Belichick are suspended, picks are forfeited, and Kraft goes ballistic.
4% Pats are exonerated. Wells finds the witnesses credible and the scientific evidence compelling. Goodell never apologizes because he was just doing his job, etc.
1% Pats are exonerated because Colts ball boy admits to further deflating the ball Jackson intercepted. Grigson gets shitcanned.
 

bankshot1

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Tony C said:
 
The league's best interest is irrelevant (though you're right about what that interest is). The "league" isn't acting, Goodell and Wells are. Look at this from Goodell's eyes. If the league gives the Pats a clean bill of health it appears both thta his office was incompetent in how it handled the investigation and that he was intimidated by Kraft. It's definitely not in Goodell's interest for this to come out making the Pats look good -- the better they look the worse he looks.
 
I have no idea how truly "independent" this Wells and his investigation is. We'll find out, though. My guess is that, at a minimum, it's political enough that the best result would be obfuscating conclusions about "no conclusive evidence for/against" etc.
IF I was an NFL owner, I would want enough transparency so that the public believed there was a fair and impartial fact-finding investigation. And if the Patriots are innocent, say so, and explain to the public the findings of the investigation  And yes there will always be some who wil claim the league roll-over for the Pats
 
SPYGATE!!!
 
Theres' nothing you can do about that.
 
It would be far more important to me as an owner, for the public to believe the game was on the level, than for them to believe the commissioner was adept at his job. IMO the public already feels Goodell screwed up the Rice investigation. 
 
IMO a clean bill of health on the Pats is not damning to Goodell. He after all called for the investigation, and leaks unfortunately happen.
 
What would be damning however, would be an investigation that was tampered with. IMO the owners would not tolerate that for a second. Goodell would get fired, maybe sued,but the damage would be done, the NFL would lose credibility with every one.
 

snowmanny

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MarcSullivaFan said:
Here's how I handicap the outcome:
40% insufficient evidence to find a violation. Pats are not punished, but are not exonerated.
25% No evidence of intentional misconduct, but Pats receive a slap on the wrist for not having their footballs up to code.
15% Pats are railroaded on the basis of inconclusive evidence, commissioner cites previous statements about low standard of proof for determining culpability. Inconclusive as to who was responsible. Lose a 1st round pick and are hit with a major fine.
15% investigation turns up an actual or purported smoking gun. Brady and/or Belichick are suspended, picks are forfeited, and Kraft goes ballistic.
4% Pats are exonerated. Wells finds the witnesses credible and the scientific evidence compelling. Goodell never apologizes because he was just doing his job, etc.
1% Pats are exonerated because Colts ball boy admits to further deflating the ball Jackson intercepted. Grigson gets shitcanned.
 
This is pretty close to how I would rate the odds. I'd put the chances of "insufficient evidence" higher and the chances of "exonerated" higher and the chances of "no evidence...slap on the wrist" substantially lower.  I think that Kraft's aggressive stance makes it more difficult to punish the Patriots even a little bit absent some concrete evidence.  I also think that while E5 Yaz is right to caution against being too too optimistic, I think the odds of a smoking gun are a little lower; I take the fact that nobody - no former player, coach, employee, etc. - has come forward with any story about Belichick or Brady talking about ball inflation or related issues as a pretty good sign.
 

bankshot1

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MarcSullivaFan said:
If the NFL was worried about maintaining credibility, they would have fired Goodell's ass six months ago.
The Rice screw-up was just about a player, the Deflate gate bullshit is about fucking with an owner and his assets.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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bankshot1 said:
The Rice screw-up was just about a player, the Deflate gate bullshit is about fucking with an owner and his assets.
You're assuming some level of rationality and enlightened self interest from the owners [as a group]. I'm not sure I agree with that assumption.

The owners range from hyper competent business people, to pill popping flunkies, unrestrained egomaniacs, criminals, and mental incompetents. My guess is that Kraft has as many enemies as he does friends.
 

soxfanSJCA

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I think Kraft is a serious power broker in this, and that his influence is being downplayed/underestimated by a lot of people.
 
The NEP are a 2.5 billion dollar franchise of the NFL;  If the NFL really wants to assert influence over the NEP through nefarious actions,
(witch hunt), it will be seriously exposing itself to countering actions.
 
As much as the other owners might be entirely sick of the NEP winning, they might also consider a rogue NFL FO a far greater threat to them.
 
Robert, Bill, and Tom have all gone public and on record to assert complete innocence in any involvement or knowledge of any intentional deflation.
 I doubt this self-defense is a half measure, and i doubt Robert, Bill, and Tom walk away from this shitstorm without a fight if any make believe shit
is served up in this pending report.
 
Were I in the NFL FO, i would be absolutely terrified of the second most powerful owner, GOAT coach GOAT QB launching a justified offensive on THIER credibility.
If the NFL is going to collude in defaming the NEP especially without bulletproof evidence, then what does the NEP have to lose in fighting back?
Seriously, is suspect the NFL FO wants this story dead dead dead if they have any sense at all.
 
 
 

bankshot1

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MarcSullivaFan said:
You're assuming some level of rationality and enlightened self interest from the owners [as a group]. I'm not sure I agree with that assumption.

The owners range from hyper competent business people, to pill popping flunkies, unrestrained egomaniacs, criminals, and mental incompetents. My guess is that Kraft has as many enemies as he does friends.
I'm assuming that guys who are successful enough to own NFL franchises worth $1 billion to -$3 billion, are mostly competent enough to figure out that a vindictive hired hand may not be the guy to oversee operations.
 
And if a vindictive hired hand can fuck with a guy like Kraft, and tamper with an investigation to make himself look good, who wouldn't he fuck with?
 
Goodell has to above-board in this thing.
 
If the Pats are guilty, thats the way it is, and penalize them, BUT if they're blameless, say so and explain why, in a clear understandable way.
 

soxfanSJCA

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I entirely agree that the NFL FO has power as well, a lot of it.
But if it is clearly misusing it/harming a flagship franchise in the process, that franchise
has a vested interest in fighting and challenging said ceded power.
 
Potentially putting a powerful franchise in a corner and expecting them to eat shit and go away quietly might
be a bridge too far for the NFL FO's face.
In fact, a just fight is a lot more likely to happen now that all the potential "defendants" have publicly declared innocence.
 
This may very well be blatant wish casting on my behalf, but I foresee a fight coming if complete exoneration is not the outcome.
 
 
 

DJnVa

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If I was another NFL owner I'd worry about what might happen, 5 or 6 years down the road, if the bullseye was on me.
 

mwonow

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DrewDawg said:
If I was another NFL owner I'd worry about what might happen, 5 or 6 years down the road, if the bullseye was on me.
True - and not to go too far down this road, but this is happening to Kraft. If it was somebody like the guy in Minnesota or the new guy in Buffalo, the more established owners might figure that they're less exposed - but who's had Goodell's back more than Kraft? If Roger will bite that particular hand, no owner's fingers are safe...
 

Ed Hillel

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I'd put the odds of a "smoking gun" at less than one percent. I won't repeat what others have said, but essentially my thoughts are in line with Stitch's. I think the most likely outcome is that Wells' report finds no evidence of wrongdoing and suggests science/lack of proper measurement as the most likely explanation for ten of the footballs. I do not know which direction they will go for the 11th. I will say no punishment at all.
 

soxfan121

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bankshot1 said:
I'm assuming that guys who are successful enough to own NFL franchises worth $1 billion to -$3 billion, are mostly competent enough to figure out that a vindictive hired hand may not be the guy to oversee operations.
 
The number of "successful" business people who own NFL franchises is less than the number of franchises owned by lucky sperm club members. 
 
Hence, the majority of NFL owners are not "mostly competent" and assuming they are is folly. 
 

Hoya81

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You will enjoy (especially as an antidote from the unending snow in New England) the Brady-centric MMQB in a few hours. We spoke. I learned.
— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) February 9, 2015
 

MarcSullivaFan

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soxfan121 said:
 
The number of "successful" business people who own NFL franchises is less than the number of franchises owned by lucky sperm club members. 
 
Hence, the majority of NFL owners are not "mostly competent" and assuming they are is folly. 
Moreover, assuming that the self-made owners will act out of enlightened self interest is naive. Making a billion dollars and being nuttier than a shithouse rat are not mutually exclusive. See, e.g., Donald Sterling.
These are folks who have survived ruthless competition to make their fortunes. Due to the vagaries of antitrust law that allow professional sports leagues to exist, they find themselves in the peculiar position of being forced to work cooperatively with their direct competitors. Some of them are good at this; some, probably not so much.
 
Edited to remove gratuitous douchebaggery.
 

bankshot1

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soxfan121 said:
 
The number of "successful" business people who own NFL franchises is less than the number of franchises owned by lucky sperm club members. 
 
Hence, the majority of NFL owners are not "mostly competent" and assuming they are is folly. 
I'm not that skeptical to assume that 2nd or 3rd generation of wealth automatically makes you a idiot/drunk/drug abuser. But I do  assume billionaires whether they are members of lucky sperm club or not, can hire good attorneys, bankers, consultants, and accountants, to guide them in reaching decisions that their watered down DNA does not.
 
But feel free to assume that NFL owners are incompetents.
 

lexrageorge

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I'm not sure what legal remedy Kraft would have, if any. The franchisees have ceded an enormous amount of power to the commissioner.
He could probably claim the commissioner acted well outside his designated powers, and was possibly behind a fraudulent sting operation with deliberately manufactured evidence.  He could probably shine enough of a spotlight to damage the NFL's credibility further.  
 
I think the chances of this happening are remote (1%), and occur only if Goodell is stupid enough to attempt a suspension and docking the team a first rounder.  
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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YTF said:
Anyone else clueless as to what the fuck that King tweet meant?
Sounds like he got a plum interview with the Super Bowl winning QB and is teasing his story. And he's saying you folks burried in snow in New England will like it.

In classic King fashion, he is throwing himself a compliment while also complimenting Brady -- suggesting that even he, Peter the great, learned a few things about football from the GOAT.
 

simplyeric

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lexrageorge said:
He could probably claim the commissioner acted well outside his designated powers, and was possibly behind a fraudulent sting operation with deliberately manufactured evidence.  He could probably shine enough of a spotlight to damage the NFL's credibility further.  
 
I think the chances of this happening are remote (1%), and occur only if Goodell is stupid enough to attempt a suspension and docking the team a first rounder.  
shining the spotlight, yes, but not on this particular issue. If the value of the franchise is legitimately threatened, I think BB and Kraft might go into full Expose Oz mode. I'm sure that there's enough evidence of systematic wrongdoing out there, that it's sort of a nuclear option for them.
(By 'I'm sure' I mean 'I find it easy to believe, and I'd like to hope so')
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm not really convinced it's DeflateGate related. Could just be about football/greatness, etc.
 

soxfan121

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bankshot1 said:
I'm not that skeptical to assume that 2nd or 3rd generation of wealth automatically makes you a idiot/drunk/drug abuser. But I do  assume billionaires whether they are members of lucky sperm club or not, can hire good attorneys, bankers, consultants, and accountants, to guide them in reaching decisions that their watered down DNA does not.
 
But feel free to assume that NFL owners are incompetents.
 
They can. But nearly fifty years of league history shows they mostly don't. Some familial dynasties are competently run; some of the competent real-world business people are complete shitshows as owners. 
 

Devizier

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Hoya81 said:
 


You will enjoy (especially as an antidote from the unending snow in New England) the Brady-centric MMQB in a few hours. We spoke. I learned.
— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) February 9, 2015
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 


 
Well, there's your answer. A back-channels ass kissing from the league office while hoping the whole issue disappears.
 

DJnVa

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Ed Hillel said:
I'm not really convinced it's DeflateGate related. Could just be about football/greatness, etc.
 
Sure, but it's King thinking he's doing image rehab.
 

koufax32

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DrewDawg said:
If I was another NFL owner I'd worry about what might happen, 5 or 6 years down the road, if the bullseye was on me.
Should they be on board with Kraft? Yes. This is like Georgia and South Carolina sending delegates to the Continental Congress even though most of the issues up to now have been MA problems. At what point would they also support independence if necessary?

I'm not sure how many owners have the ability to put themselves in others shoes to realize this could happen to them. Your point is valid. I am just skeptical on the number of owners willing to this route yet.
 

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E5 Yaz said:
Thanks for posting this....very good insights into the final two TD drives in the Super Bowl.  And on the cheating accusations/issues across the league, I particularly liked his part on Jerry Rice:
 
"And one more thing: Rice should tell us which cheating is allowable and which is reprehensible, since he knows so well."
 

rodderick

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ent5 said:
Great piece by King on the final two drives of the 4th quarter. I loved the methodical, logical way both Josh and Brady used to counter the Seattle rush.
 
It's basically: "execute, don't get greedy, be patient and be glad to take what's there". Seems like a simple enough message, but it takes a lot of preparation and mental toughness to believe that gameplan and keep at it while down 10 in the fourth quarter.
 

JimBoSox9

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Grimace-HS said:
Thanks for posting this....very good insights into the final two TD drives in the Super Bowl.  And on the cheating accusations/issues across the league, I particularly liked his part on Jerry Rice:
 
"And one more thing: Rice should tell us which cheating is allowable and which is reprehensible, since he knows so well."
 
Some good bits almost make up for being too big an asshole to find a way to fit Malcolm Butler's name into his first paragraph.