#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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johnmd20

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Pumpsie said:
Boomer & Carton wonder why the fact that the refs approved the balls by just handling them, not checking with a gauge, hasn't gotten more notice by the media.  SOP.  Aaron Rodgers gives them overinflated footballs and Brady gives them underinflated footballs, and since it really doesn't matter very much, they approve them all. In other words, much ado about nothing.  http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/nfl/390155331706/0/boomer-carton-refs-allegedly-approved-deflategate-balls
 
Isn't that the whole thing in a nutshell? Packers do it and it's not even an issue because they are just playing to win. But the Pats do it and they are cheaters who are altering the competitive balance of the game. That is why this is completely ridiculous.
 

SumnerH

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simplyeric said:
a. swamp coolers are noticeabley ineffective in humid environments.  Rainy day = 100% humidity.  Where's the water going to evaporate to?
 
b. swamp coolers deal with a continuous heat source from building loads.  There's always heat energy in the building that's being added to the water, being sucked in by the phase change.  The ball, after a little while, has no more heat load.  
 
So:
- the ball is not "forcing" additional evapration (in contrast to a living body or a building).  
- there air is essentially saturated.  The water isn't going to evaporate unless the surrounding air is heated (thus reducing the relative humidity)
 
Evaporative cooling would happen, for a while.  But once the ball reached ambient outside temp, evaproative cooling would (effectively) cease, and what little there might be would be continuouisly re-equilibriated (?).
 
Think of it this way:  is an empty metal bench getting continuously colder because it's in the rain?  Not really.  It's either reaching the temp of the air, or the falling rain, or in between depending on the balance between the two.  But it's not going to continuously get colder than the water by means of evaporation unless the air is somehow really dry or it's subject to a radiant load that somehow excites the water to evaproate without also heating the metal.
 
 
edit: SumnerH I did mention possible effects of air movement and humidity in the post you replied to.
Swamp coolers get less efficient, they don't stop working altogether.

The metal bench doesn't get continuously cooler; at some point the delta-T between the bench and the air is warming the bench at the same rate that the evaporative cooling is cooling it, and an equilibrium is reached. But it will reach a point cooler than the ambient air, depending on the wind and humidity. Even when it's raining out, wind causes evaporation that causes cooling.

Hang one thermometer outside on a rainy day under the eaves to measure the air temperature. Put another in a bowl of water (that's at ambient temperature) with a fan blowing across it. The water will cool down and the thermometer will register cooler than the first.
 

DJnVa

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MillarTime said:
This is what makes me extremely nervous about the refs in the game. Have a very bad feeling we'll see some big call go against the Pats.
 
Well, big calls go against teams all the time, but there's no way the NFL wants a scandal with officiating. These guys are going to be under a ton of scrutiny.
 
We can't go around thinking every front office, every person in the NFL office, and the officials are against as all the time.
 
 

E5 Yaz

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DrewDawg said:
We can't go around thinking every front office, every person in the NFL office, and the officials are against as all the time.
 
Hey sailor, new in town?
 

kartvelo

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DrewDawg said:
 
Well, big calls go against teams all the time, but there's no way the NFL wants a scandal with officiating. These guys are going to be under a ton of scrutiny.
 
We can't go around thinking every front office, every person in the NFL office, and the officials are against as all the time.
 
All that's really necessary is for all or most of their bosses to be "against us," of course,and that's a much smaller number of people, but point taken.
 

quint

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MillarTime said:
This is what makes me extremely nervous about the refs in the game. Have a very bad feeling we'll see some big call go against the Pats.
Do yourself a favor, don't watch the game. Pick up a safe hobby like stamp collecting or bird watching.
 

Captaincoop

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Rosey Ruzicka said:
At this point there are two possibilities, given that at least a 1.5 PSI drop is explainable by temperature:
-The .5 PSI difference is due to a combination of factors like imprecision of measurement, ref attention to detail, game use etc.,
-The Patriots so greatly valued a by all accounts imperceptable .5 PSI difference that they ran a covert operation to deflate 11 game balls by exactly .5 psi in bathroom in 90 seconds.
 
Patriots are the boogeyman, and the NFL, media and Patriot hater fans are little kids scared of the shadows in their bedroom.
 
Well, also the third and most likely possibility.  That no one has any idea what the drop in pressure was, because no measurement was taken prior to the game.
 

E5 Yaz

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quint said:
Do yourself a favor, don't watch the game. Pick up a safe hobby like stamp collecting or bird watching.
 
You realize how many germs he could get from handling stamps?
 
Dec 2, 2014
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The Gray Eagle said:
 
There will be controversial calls and blown calls in the Super Bowl, because there are in every single NFL game. Refs miss calls all the time and the rule book invites controversies. That will happen. But when Patriots fans are irate about it when a bad call goes against them, it's not going to matter one bit to the NFL, because everyone who is not a Patriots fan will just say "Ha-ha, serves them right, the cheaters finally got what they deserved."
 
The only way the league would be under any pressure because of a controversial call in the Super Bowl is if one helps the Patriots win. That would be a big deal. Otherwise, not a problem for them.
Las Vegas says hello.
 

mwonow

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quint said:
Do yourself a favor, don't watch the game. Pick up a safe hobby like stamp collecting or bird watching.
 
E5 Yaz said:
 
You realize how many germs he could get from handling stamps?
 
Or birds. Check out that picture! And think about the seeds and bird-dirt and such
 

TheoShmeo

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OK, I have heard again from my two friends, who do not know each other but are saying consistent (and not particularly surprising) things.
 
Caveats (and to hopefully avoid another round of meta discussion):
 
- I'm passing stuff on because I know that some people here, like me, find these inputs to be interesting (regardless of what discount level they may apply); and
 
- Really, if you think this is just made up nonsense (by my two friends or me), I suggest you simply look away. 
 
Consistent with Wells' comments about the length of the investigation, there will indeed be no penalty before the game.  That said, the level of enmity between Goodell and Kraft is off the charts.  A battle of sorts is shaping between them that will take place after the game. 
 
Again, none of that is surprising.
 
But it does lead to a worry (and one that exists even if you completely discount the above) on my part. 
 
This may have been mentioned by others up thread and apologies, if so, but might Goodell order a Ben Dreith style officiating job in this game?  I know that the public will be carefully scrutinizing how the SB is called but a hugely bad call or two against the Pats would fit right in with the rest of these playoffs so it's not as if it would necessarily stand out as a "revenge call."
 
PS: While I have been typing a bunch of posts have addressed this very issue.  Oops.
 

Rovin Romine

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Myt1 said:
The cold call to a university looking to see if anyone there could handle it is a bit curious, though. More often, there would be a bunch of "ISO Physicist Expert Witness" emails throughout the firm and quiet checks with friends at other firms for a reliable recommendation with a little more circumspection.

It's curious.
It is a little weird. Did this email really "expose" the fact that the NFL was investigating? They'd have to investigate. They'd have to hire counsel. They'd have to have counsel hire an expert in case subsequent litigation was needed. They'd want, whatever happens, from a PR pov, to look like they hired an impartial expert of the highest caliber who was only interested in the truth. So no harm no foul.
 

AB in DC

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I saw ths in the Chris Long article:
 


As Brenkus said this week on Sport Science, an overinflated football actually travels faster. How’s that for an advantage?
 
So that's why Tom Brady stinks at throwing the long ball!!
 

quint

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MillarTime said:
Because you're one of the many in this thread that has reached full blown hysteria over this matter. When one starts dreaming up scenarios where this has an effect on the game's officiating or the drooling masses begin wishcasting fines and/or loss of draft picks well without any proof of wrongdoing well, it's time for a break kids.
 

Koufax

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TheoShmeo said:
 the level of enmity between Goodell and Kraft is off the charts.  A battle of sorts is shaping between them that will take place after the game. 
 
 
Any sense from your conversation whether this emnity began at deflategate or was this brewing for awhile?  
 
Any sense as to whether this was a sting operation or something that happened spontaneously?
 
If there is emnity, then we can forget about the NFL really looking at the science.  They will want bag men who will back them up.
 

Stitch01

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TheoShmeo said:
OK, I have heard again from my two friends, who do not know each other but are saying consistent (and not particularly surprising) things.
 
Caveats (and to hopefully avoid another round of meta discussion):
 
- I'm passing stuff on because I know that some people here, like me, find these inputs to be interesting (regardless of what discount level they may apply); and
 
- Really, if you think this is just made up nonsense (by my two friends or me), I suggest you simply look away. 
 
Consistent with Wells' comments about the length of the investigation, there will indeed be no penalty before the game.  That said, the level of enmity between Goodell and Kraft is off the charts.  A battle of sorts is shaping between them that will take place after the game. 
 
Again, none of that is surprising.
 
But it does lead to a worry (and one that exists even if you completely discount the above) on my part. 
 
This may have been mentioned by others up thread and apologies, if so, but might Goodell order a Ben Dreith style officiating job in this game?  I know that the public will be carefully scrutinizing how the SB is called but a hugely bad call or two against the Pats would fit right in with the rest of these playoffs so it's not as if it would necessarily stand out as a "revenge call."
 
PS: While I have been typing a bunch of posts have addressed this very issue.  Oops.
Even Goodell is not stupid or incompetent enough to attempt to rig the Super Bowl via the officiating.  You arent the first to bring it up, but its absolute crazy talk.  Goodell, despite having the power to pretty much do whatever the fuck he wants to punish the Patriots and despite his number one job description being to protect the shield, puts the entire future of the league and his 40 million a year job at risk just to spite the Pats?  How exactly does he order it, tell the part time employees officiating the game they have to rig it, hope like hell a close call comes up, and hope like hell the officiating crew goes along with it and keeps their mouths shut?
Also, color me super skeptical that Goodell and Kraft, at this point, have a hostile relationship.  Im sure Kraft doesn't like the way the last two weeks have gone, but that relationship didn't disintegrate that quickly and I doubt there are second and third hand sources with their fingers on the pulse of that relationship.  Given the crap we've seen from "anonymous league sources" in the press, I have a hard time taking whatever else league sources may be leaking seriously.
 

TheoShmeo

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quint said:
Because you're one of the many in this thread that has reached full blown hysteria over this matter. When one starts dreaming up scenarios where this has an effect on the game's officiating or the drooling masses begin wishcasting fines and/or loss of draft picks well without any proof of wrongdoing well, it's time for a break kids.
That is a very fair take.
 
That said, I was a rabid fan of the Pats in 1976 and I still find it hard to believe that the Raiders-Pats playoff game that year was called fairly.  It wasn't just the Roughing the Passer call.  There were several calls and non-calls in one game that were truly inexplicable, including one instance when Russ Francis' arms were held behind him by Villipiano right in front of the zebras with no holding call being made.
 
So while I think that it would be very hard under these circumstances for Goodell to exact his revenge on Kraft in this manner, with all of the world watching so carefully, the sheer madness of the Dreith Game leaves me tilting at windmills to some extent. 
 

ifmanis5

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The unfortunate reality that this controversy points out is that the Patriots now have literally zero allies. I know many in the media like to point to Goodell and Kraft's cozy relationship but Ballghazi appears to have broken that, if it was ever even really a thing. Pats have nowhere to go now. They are on their own now more than ever.
 

am_dial

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PedroKsBambino

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One of the problems with telling the refs to tank the game is that they might tell someone later.  Goodell is nowhere near the position that, say, David Stern was in (just to pick a random commissioner whose messages to referees was NEVER questioned :) ).   He doesn't have anything close to F-U power in the league or F-U durability at this point.
 
He's a guy that everyone in the league knows might be in trouble job-wise now, and will be if there's more scandal.  He can threaten to do something if refs don't go his way, but I don't know that anyone will believe its a real threat---he'd be gone in a half a second if Vinovich just leaked to Daopolous, Pereira, etc. that there was any 'leaning' going on, wouldn't he?
 

wiffleballhero

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I don't know about the ref. anxiety. The NFL has got to know that it is dangerously close to being seen as having the integrity of wrestling. A game where casual fans see egregiously wrong calls going against a team -- even one crucially bad call -- will damage the league far more than anything else at this point.
 
Also, a poorly called game where it is obvious that the Pats are getting screwed is potentially capable of creating a new, more powerful narrative about the corrupt NFL. The narrative will be one that makes the Pats seem like the victim not the bully. I doubt they want that. 
 
 
Besides, not calling holding on the offense on the helmet catch already screwed the Pats out of one SB. 
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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ifmanis5 said:
The unfortunate reality that this controversy points out is that the Patriots now have literally zero allies. I know many in the media like to point to Goodell and Kraft's cozy relationship but Ballghazi appears to have broken that, if it was ever even really a thing. Pats have nowhere to go now. They are on their own now more than ever.
 
I don't know if this is true.  I think/hope some of the more respected and reasonable owners in the NFL (Mara, Rooney) likely still have their heads on straight.  
 

MillarTime

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quint said:
Because you're one of the many in this thread that has reached full blown hysteria over this matter. When one starts dreaming up scenarios where this has an effect on the game's officiating or the drooling masses begin wishcasting fines and/or loss of draft picks well without any proof of wrongdoing well, it's time for a break kids.
 
Ok, but seems like you may be the one who needs to take a break. Don't think wondering whether this whole shitshow will have an impact on the game is a hysterical take.
 

TheoShmeo

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Koufax said:
Any sense from your conversation whether this emnity began at deflategate or was this brewing for awhile?  
 
Any sense as to whether this was a sting operation or something that happened spontaneously?
 
If there is emnity, then we can forget about the NFL really looking at the science.  They will want bag men who will back them up.
I'm not certain but my sense is that it's all over this issue.  I have no information about the sting aspect.
 
And Stich01, it probably is crazy talk.  My Ben Dreith scars never healed and contribute mightily to my concern.  But I think you are right and that my concern is not well taken. 
 
I think your skepticism on their relationship is off base, however.  Even without any inside take, Goodell's NFL is leaking and thereby leading to the current shit show, and Kraft has responded defiantly and demanded an apology if no real evidence is uncovered.  I'd be surprised if that combination didn't lead to enmity.
 

PedroKsBambino

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
 
I don't know if this is true.  I think/hope some of the more respected and reasonable owners in the NFL (Mara, Rooney) likely still have their heads on straight.  
 
I'd guess those two, among others, will take a 'wait and see what the evidence is' approach, and if the evidence is crap will react accordingly.  And, if the evidence is damning, they'll act accordingly too.  That's the safety-valve here---there's some pretty serious dudes in the ranks of 'senior owners' and I trust them, even if i don't trust Goodell.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Stitch01 said:
Even Goodell is not stupid or incompetent enough to attempt to rig the Super Bowl via the officiating.  You arent the first to bring it up, but its absolute crazy talk.  Goodell, despite having the power to pretty much do whatever the fuck he wants to punish the Patriots and despite his number one job description being to protect the shield, puts the entire future of the league and his 40 million a year job at risk just to spite the Pats?  How exactly does he order it, tell the part time employees officiating the game they have to rig it, hope like hell a close call comes up, and hope like hell the officiating crew goes along with it and keeps their mouths shut?
Also, color me super skeptical that Goodell and Kraft, at this point, have a hostile relationship.  Im sure Kraft doesn't like the way the last two weeks have gone, but that relationship didn't disintegrate that quickly and I doubt there are second and third hand sources with their fingers on the pulse of that relationship.  Given the crap we've seen from "anonymous league sources" in the press, I have a hard time taking whatever else league sources may be leaking seriously.
That's where I come down as well. Kraft backed Goodell to the hilt this past year, was frequently viewed as one of his staunchest supporters and allies among the owners (despite Spygate), and yet suddenly their relationship is off the charts hostile? That doesn't make any sense to me.

I think the more likely scenario is that the "scandal" took Goodell by surprise, rather than being out to get Kraft he's actually been scared shitless of giving off the impression that he's too buddy-buddy with Kraft, and we ended up a toxic combination in the league office of incompetence, inertia, and leaks (from underlings with axes to grind) that helped the whole thing to spiral out of control.
 

Myt1

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If Goodell tries to fix the game against the Pats he is going to fucking prison, where someone who lost a boatload on the game would have him killed. Let's not be silly.

But there is no doubt in my mind that their relationship isn't all puppy dogs and rainbows.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I find it entirely credible that Kraft and Goodell have tension now.  Every action Goodell has taken as commissioner has had a 'my way or the highway' vibe to it and Kraft's press conference and direct commentary on how the league handled it cannot have been well received.   Kraft, we can assume, only went there after running out of ways to get it addressed privately.

I'd be far more surprised if their relationship wasn't damaged by this than to learn it definitively was.
 

Laser Show

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ifmanis5 said:
The unfortunate reality that this controversy points out is that the Patriots now have literally zero allies. I know many in the media like to point to Goodell and Kraft's cozy relationship but Ballghazi appears to have broken that, if it was ever even really a thing. Pats have nowhere to go now. They are on their own now more than ever.
And this is why I agree about the officiating thing being possible. I just don't see the media/other owners sticking up for the Pats. They'll just say something like "yea it was wrong but you shouldn't have cheated!!"

I still think it's unlikely but to think it would never happen is a little naive IMO. Maybe I'm too cynical though.

Edit: Everyone else seems to think it's silly so I'm probably wrong.
 

simplyeric

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SumnerH said:
Swamp coolers get less efficient, they don't stop working altogether.

The metal bench doesn't get continuously cooler; at some point the delta-T between the bench and the air is warming the bench at the same rate that the evaporative cooling is cooling it, and an equilibrium is reached. But it will reach a point cooler than the ambient air, depending on the wind and humidity. Even when it's raining out, wind causes evaporation that causes cooling.

Hang one thermometer outside on a rainy day under the eaves to measure the air temperature. Put another in a bowl of water (that's at ambient temperature) with a fan blowing across it. The water will cool down and the thermometer will register cooler than the first.
 
Right.  That's what I've said, no?  Unless you mean to take me to task for "noticeably ineffective" being too close to "stop working altogether".
 
You're describing the difference between "wet bulb" and "dry bulb" temperature.  I'm familiar with it.  One measures wet bulb by actually with a sling psychrometer: literally a thermometer in a wet sock that is swung on a string around in the air. 
 
The wet bulb temp will be colder than dry bulb, but it would not continue to get colder.  It would reach some differential, and then stay there.
 
That differential is directly proportional to the relative humidty.  
 
At 50d F, and 74% humidity, the wet bulb temp would be 4d below (thus 46d F).
On a 100% humidity day, that difference would be zero.  There would be no evaporation (unless by means of radiant heat, and even so it would be a feedback loop).
 
edit: looking into it, game-time humidity is reported at ~74% (give or take, because 74% is convenient in the chart I referenced).
 
So the wet bulb balls temp could have been as much 4d F below ambient air.
 
http://retirees.uwaterloo.ca/~jerry/orchids/wet&dry.html
 

quint

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MillarTime said:
 
Ok, but seems like you may be the one who needs to take a break. Don't think wondering whether this whole shitshow will have an impact on the game is a hysterical take.
 
I don't think you understand the word hysteria.
 
And I'm not the one creating scenarios for events yet to unfold in the case that my rooting interests don't happen exactly as I wish them to be.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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PedroKsBambino said:
I find it entirely credible that Kraft and Goodell have tension now.  Every action Goodell has taken as commissioner has had a 'my way or the highway' vibe to it and Kraft's press conference and direct commentary on how the league handled it cannot have been well received.   Kraft, we can assume, only went there after running out of ways to get it addressed privately.
I'd be far more surprised if their relationship wasn't damaged by this than to learn it definitively was.
I agree with this take, but there's a long way from tension and a damaged relationship to one that is "off-the-charts hostile."
 

JimD

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If the fear of the refs being ordered to put their fingers on the scale is even remotely true, then Bob Kraft should be letting any fellow owner with a skeleton in the closet know that he will burn the NFL down unless they reign in Goodell.
 

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I've reached a couple of conclusions.

The video leak is a message back to the Kraft party that "we can hang whatever we want on you, toe the line and be quiet". Given that, there is no way the Pats escape all punishment - unless they declare all out war, create and distribute a high quality video (what we see on tv we believe) demonstrating via time lapse the entire fotball preparation experiment all the way through half time scenarios. This video with some authority figure (accounting firm xyz that handles lottery pingpong ball certification?) on hand to provide veracity. It would have to be created and targeted for the Kardashian crowd with enough science to keep the non ADHD crowd interested. And it would have to be released by the Patriots and not a 3rd party. Maybe with a title of "Hey kids, are you smarter than an NFL executive?". OK, maybe not that title, but something viral worthy. In the absence of a public swaying video, the Pats are going to be penalized in some way.

The only other game changer I can see is if somehow the ball attendant gets outed by Reddit or TMZ or something before the Wells report. If that happens, then the Jewell style slander suit (IANAL) that would take place would open up subpoena options and public exposure to the real facts versus the sanitized/whitewashed facts that will come out of the Wells report. (Obviously league by-laws tie the Pats hands to a large degree in terms of fighting any finding/handing down of penalties.) The fear of a slander suit/deposition/subpoena scenario would imo cause the league to totally absolve the Pats of any wrong doing and just postpone the "going to catch the Pats" crowd into some point in the future with additional fire in their bellies.
 

DJnVa

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JimD said:
If the fear of the refs being ordered to put their fingers on the scale is even remotely true, then Bob Kraft should be letting any fellow owner with a skeleton in the closet know that he will burn the NFL down unless they reign in Goodell.
 
Exactly. The whole idea of the league leaning on the refs is ludicrous precisely because Kraft likely knows where the bodies are buried (in addition to it just being foolhardy to the extreme).
 
 
That said, this has ensured that the game thread will be an absolute trainwreck the first time Browner is flagged.
 
 

Gambler7

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http://youtu.be/ng2CIsOCchE
Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports found Mike Kensil at media day. Refused to talk and walked away to hide. 1:10 into the video. 
 

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I agree with this take, but there's a long way from tension and a damaged relationship to one that is "off-the-charts hostile."
As a matter of logic, I agree...but that's exactly what both said.  
 
As others have observed throughout the thread, I hope we get to witness a scene that will evoke memories of Rozelle-Davis, with the side benefit of the chance to read the resulting tea leaves.
 

theapportioner

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Barring major new evidence, if Goodell punishes the Patriots, presumably Kraft retaliates in some way and Goodell is diminished.
 
If Goodell exonerates the Patriots, he already has Kensil as the fall guy for the botched investigation.
 
If Goodell is thinking rationally, he should choose the second option.
 

MillarTime

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quint said:
 
I don't think you understand the word hysteria.
 
And I'm not the one creating scenarios for events yet to unfold in the event that my rooting interests don't unfold exactly as I wish it to be.
 
Neither am I.