Devers : No talks after season begins (Speier report)

[8slim]

Trade him before the season if he won't take 8/240-260. I dont think any of these guys are ever worth the price tag they come with.

There's always another Mookie/Xander/Devers people will root for. The team shouldn't be beholden to making dumb decisions based on what fans want, especially fans that are still going to watch regardless because at the end of the day the only thing that matters is laundry and rings.

Also this team is structurally flawed in so many ways. Better to slash and burn and see where we are in 5 years.

The bolded is the risk. Fewer fans are watching than in years prior. It's been well documented that younger fans (under 30) are far less apt to both attend and watch live games. Younger fans are also far more likely to root for specific players than teams.

Sports exists in a very crowded entertainment space, so ignoring fan sentiment is probably not wise. Needless to say, you don't let fan sentiment dictate personnel decisions. But if you're going to make unpopular moves -- and we sure know the Sox have done that a few times in recent years -- then you really should (a) be able to clearly communicate your plans, and (b) win, a lot, and as quickly as possible.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Whatever he wants could be ... just be get me out of Boston. Again, the question needs to be asked: What is the appeal of staying longterm in Boston? The fall foliage? The Essex Coastal Scenic byway?

Money?

If Devers wants out no matter what, he'll leave regardless of what the team does. There's only one way to find out his priorities though, and that's to keep negotiating.

 

[moondog80]

If an honest assessment shows a team that has legitimate playoff hopes, I have no problem keeping him and then not worrying about free agency it happens. Because contrary to popular belief, if he does leave they won't have nothing to show for it, they will have 300 million or whatever to spend on someone else.

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

I have zero faith in the front office to offer a competitive contract, so I voted to trade Devers before the season. After seeing the contracts signed this offseason, Devers would be an idiot to sign for less than $220-250 mil this offseason and he'll be worth more than Xander in free agency. Will the Sox really offer one more dollar to a controlled Devers than they offered to Xander as a free agent? And by the time he hits free agency you're not getting him for less than Xander's $280 million, that's for sure.

 

[voidfunkt]

The bolded is the risk. Fewer fans are watching than in years prior. It's been well documented that younger fans (under 30) are far less apt to both attend and watch live games. Younger fans are also far more likely to root for specific players than teams.

Maybe. On the other hand kids are dumb and I was a kid once. I think I liked Jeff Frye at one point for some reason I can't remember when I was like 9. Kids will end up liking whoever the adults end up liking and that can be anybody.

 

[8slim]

Maybe. On the other hand kids are dumb and I was a kid once. I think I liked Jeff Frye at one point for some reason I can't remember when I was like 9. Kids will end up liking whoever the adults end up liking and that can be anybody.

It’s not a maybe though. I see the data all of the time. People under 30 are much more likely to root for players. They have the ability to follow a player in ways that weren’t possible years ago.

I agree that a winning team will draw fans. Certainly in Boston. But if they don’t win, consistently and big, while jettisoning “stars” when they get to free agency, it’s gonna get ugly.

Lots of pressure on Cassas to be the next Mo Vaughn and Mayer to be the next Nomar.

 

[mikeford]

Trade him now. The window is shut. The team does not have starting pitching and has too much dead money tied to Sale. Get prospects who will be ready in 2 years.

 

[streeter88]

No words. I would have said "do whatever it takes", but I have no confidence that Chaim / FSG could get that right, and even less that Chaim would get a fair return if he tries to trade Devers. Fire him into the sun (Chaim not Raffy).

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

No words. I would have said "do whatever it takes", but I have no confidence that Chaim / FSG could get that right, and even less that Chaim would get a fair return if he tries to trade Devers. Fire him into the sun (Chaim not Raffy).

How is anyone blaming X on Bloom? You think he doesn’t report to Henry? If Bloom said, “ yes, beat SD’s offer and give Devers 12/480!!!” That Henry would say okay???

 

[streeter88]

How is anyone blaming X on Bloom? You think he doesn’t report to Henry? If Bloom said, “ yes, beat SD’s offer and give Devers 12/480!!!” That Henry would say okay???

That's why I am giving equivalent blame to FSG. We have a lot to thank this ownership group for (4 WS, Fenway revival, Red Sox as relevant contenders again etc.), but there were chances to extend Bogaerts that were squandered well before it came to this. Raffy tied his future to X some months ago, so I suspect he is gone too. Chaim and FSG wear it equally, but the damage was done before 2022 even started. The Padres just completed the coup de grace.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That's why I am giving equivalent blame to FSG. We have a lot to thank this ownership group for (4 WS, Fenway revival, Red Sox as relevant contenders again etc.), but there were chances to extend Bogaerts that were squandered well before it came to this. Raffy tied his future to X some months ago, so I suspect he is gone too. Chaim and FSG wear it equally, but the damage was done before 2022 even started. The Padres just completed the coup de grace.

I just don’t think the chances to extend truly existed. I think Boras and him wanted to hit FA at age 30 but also have the safety of options to carry him year to year in case he had a down or injured season. By structuring his contract extension line that way several years ago it set him up to have a maximum contract when he hit FA.
IMO the Sox had no chance to get him an extension that took him to age 35 for $28M AAV. Not one bit

edit- X, not Devers… fixed

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I just don’t think the chances to extend truly existed. I think Boras and him wanted to hit FA at age 30 but also have the safety of options to carry him year to year in case he had a down or injured season. By structuring his contract extension line that way several years ago it set him up to have a maximum contract when he hit FA.
IMO the Sox had no chance to get him an extension that took him to age 35 for $28M AAV. Not one bit

edit- X, not Devers… fixed

If one doesn’t believe Bogaerts would have taken 6/$160m last spring OR that the FO never really wanted him anyway, I think those are very defensible points. I disagree (personally) with the former, I have no idea on the latter. What IS baseball malpractice in my opinion is in not trading him last year if either of these were true.

For example, does anyone on this board think Dombrowski would have turned down Stott and Logan O’Hoppe for Bogaerts if we’d offered that before acquiring Marsh. Or that he would have not done Stott and Griff McGarry - because either package is incredibly more valuable than the literal nothing we got allowing Bogaerts to walk.

 

[Buck Showalter]

How do you define elite? Top 10%? Top 20%?

Over the past three years, Devers' wRC+ among qualified hitters is 132, which ties him for 19th place with 5 other guys out of a total of 118. So if top 20% is elite, then Devers is barely elite. By wOBA he's a bit better, tied for 13th place with one other. By fWAR he's tied for 26th with one other.

Basically depending on your expectation and metric, I think one can make an argument that Devers is either barely elite or barely not elite.

you SABR nerds crack me up.

sRC+...wOBA...really?

Do you watch games or do you just perform a data-dump to EXCEL each day at 3 AM?

How'd all this mathematical nonsense work for the Red Sox last season?

At the age of 22 - when most kids are still barely out of the Cape League, and learning how to hit with a wood bat for the first-time - Raffy led the league in 2B and Total Bases.

At the age of 24 - he was arguably the most feared hitter on a team that was 2-wins away from the World Series.

Sure -- don't sign him...let him go somewhere else where he will help a team win.

But you go play with the stats, invent some new ones, and try to justify being economical for a baseball franchise in a league that has no salary cap (!!!), while ignoring championships and division titles, and the need for elite talent to win them.

I have to tell you, I just returned from San Diego and roamed the lobby of the Hyatt where all these young, smart kids are running around, making decisions for major league baseball teams (now, are they representing the winning baseball teams, that's an entirely different question). Half of them look like a baseball bat could / would swing "them".

And you can include the GM of the Tampa Rays (and countless others in there)...who are more equipped to give group projects on a mathematical equation then having any idea what it's like to hit a baseball.

Quite honestly...the 'Moneyball experiment' (which all of these kids are following) was all about exploiting inefficiencies and as Billy Beane said, "when your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him".

Those franchises which are willing to spend are laughing at the Boston Red Sox....and they're certainly not interrupting them.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

"when your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him".

 

[BornToRun]

you SABR nerds crack me up.

sRC+...wOBA...really?

Do you watch games or do you just perform a data-dump to EXCEL each day at 3 AM?

How'd all this mathematical nonsense work for the Red Sox last season?

At the age of 22 - when most kids are still barely out of the Cape League, and learning how to hit with a wood bat for the first-time - Raffy led the league in 2B and Total Bases.

At the age of 24 - he was arguably the most feared hitter on a team that was 2-wins away from the World Series.

Sure -- don't sign him...let him go somewhere else where he will help a team win.

But you go play with the stats, invent some new ones, and try to justify being economical for a baseball franchise in a league that has no salary cap (!!!), while ignoring championships and division titles, and the need for elite talent to win them.

I have to tell you, I just returned from San Diego and roamed the lobby of the Hyatt where all these young, smart kids are running around, making decisions for major league baseball teams (now, are they representing the winning baseball teams, that's an entirely different question). Half of them look like a baseball bat could / would swing "them".

And you can include the GM of the Tampa Rays (and countless others in there)...who are more equipped to give group projects on a mathematical equation then having any idea what it's like to hit a baseball.

Quite honestly...the 'Moneyball experiment' (which all of these kids are following) was all about exploiting inefficiencies and as Billy Beane said, "when your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him".

Those franchises which are willing to spend are laughing at the Boston Red Sox....and they're certainly not interrupting them.

When did we become a role play forum?

 

[pedro1999mvp]

I voted other because I would do a combination of 1 and 2. I would make him a fair offer...not the crap you tried to throw at Lester and Bogey, but a legitimate offer close to what he could get in free agency. If he doesn't accept, then I think you need to trade him before the season. I love Raffy, but if he won't sign an extension, you need to get a maximum return, and waiting until the trade deadline greatly reduces the return you can get.

 

[pedro1999mvp]

How is anyone blaming X on Bloom? You think he doesn’t report to Henry? If Bloom said, “ yes, beat SD’s offer and give Devers 12/480!!!” That Henry would say okay???

Personally, I blaim Bloom for how he treated Xander last spring. The 4 for 90 offer wasn't even close to market value. Xander seemed very willing to sign something if it was a fair offer. Xander sure seemed to want to finish his career in Boston, and he should have been the team Captain and been a Sox for life guy...until they gave money to Story and didn't offer him a realistic extension. If they would have treated him right earlier, it wouldn't have come down to an 11 year deal from San Diego, because I agree that Bloom shouldn't have matched that.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Personally, I blaim Bloom for how he treated Xander last spring. The 4 for 90 offer wasn't even close to market value. Xander seemed very willing to sign something if it was a fair offer. Xander sure seemed to want to finish his career in Boston, and he should have been the team Captain and been a Sox for life guy...until they gave money to Story and didn't offer him a realistic extension. If they would have treated him right earlier, it wouldn't have come down to an 11 year deal from San Diego, because I agree that Bloom shouldn't have matched that.

I disagree. I suspect that Boras knew that the market for SS's was going to be crazy after what Texas did last season. The most that the Sox likely would have offered last season was a 7 year deal (and rightly so) for possibly more AAV but if you're thinking you can hold out to hit FA and get $100M more, you most likely do that.
I do agree that the first offer was a low-ball, but did we ever hear about X saying, " no... how about an 8 year extension for $220M". I don't recall reading about any counter-offers.

In somewhat interesting info... one of my "crew" is actually friends with the Padres owner and is a Padres fan so I was just talking with him about the Xander deal and he said that SD was absolutely flush with cash on merchandise after their playoff run like nothing they'd ever seen before and that yeah... they're going for it. Not news breaking or anything, and confirms all their actions. Just that there has to be some sort of view by Henry that going over the penalty isn't worth it, no matter if they go deep in the playoffs. Perhaps the merchandise that SD just sold millions worth is a new market for them while Henry sees the Sox market as hitting a ceiling. Paying the penalty to go over won't bring back the return? I don't know.... speculation obviously.

 

[8slim]

In somewhat interesting info... one of my "crew" is actually friends with the Padres owner and is a Padres fan so I was just talking with him about the Xander deal and he said that SD was absolutely flush with cash on merchandise after their playoff run like nothing they'd ever seen before and that yeah... they're going for it. Not news breaking or anything, and confirms all their actions. Just that there has to be some sort of view by Henry that going over the penalty isn't worth it, no matter if they go deep in the playoffs. Perhaps the merchandise that SD just sold millions worth is a new market for them while Henry sees the Sox market as hitting a ceiling. Paying the penalty to go over won't bring back the return? I don't know.... speculation obviously.

That's not anything Sox fans want to hear, since the Sox are perpetually "flush with cash" from everything they sell at exorbitant prices, from tickets to merch.

 

[Toe Nash]

you SABR nerds crack me up.

sRC+...wOBA...really?

Do you watch games or do you just perform a data-dump to EXCEL each day at 3 AM?

How'd all this mathematical nonsense work for the Red Sox last season?

At the age of 22 - when most kids are still barely out of the Cape League, and learning how to hit with a wood bat for the first-time - Raffy led the league in 2B and Total Bases.

At the age of 24 - he was arguably the most feared hitter on a team that was 2-wins away from the World Series.

We kind of went over all this in 2004, but the funny thing about complaining about new stats is that the people doing the complaining tend to just...use their own stats that they are more familiar with. Or say useless things like "most feared hitter."

Anyway by a whole bunch of stats new and old, Devers is in the top 20 or so of hitters, and by stats and the eye test he's not a great fielder. No one really contradicted you in saying he was great at the plate but the question is how you define "elite" and where you value his defense.

If you are just going by your gut then fine but that's the kind of thinking that gives like, Ryan Howard $25m a year at age 35.

 

[sezwho]

If one doesn’t believe Bogaerts would have taken 6/$160m last spring OR that the FO never really wanted him anyway, I think those are very defensible points. I disagree (personally) with the former, I have no idea on the latter. What IS baseball malpractice in my opinion is in not trading him last year if either of these were true.

For example, does anyone on this board think Dombrowski would have turned down Stott and Logan O’Hoppe for Bogaerts if we’d offered that before acquiring Marsh. Or that he would have not done Stott and Griff McGarry - because either package is incredibly more valuable than the literal nothing we got allowing Bogaerts to walk.

This is what can’t get a handle on.

They will compete next year, but 0.0 Devers resigns. However he’s good and I’m not sure history tells us trading him will yield needle movers. Whoever gets him is renting or signed up to commit 350-400m, so what team gives value? Even knowing he doesn’t come back doesn’t necessarily tell me to trade him now as I still want to compete.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

you SABR nerds crack me up.

sRC+...wOBA...really?

Do you watch games or do you just perform a data-dump to EXCEL each day at 3 AM?

How'd all this mathematical nonsense work for the Red Sox last season?

At the age of 22 - when most kids are still barely out of the Cape League, and learning how to hit with a wood bat for the first-time - Raffy led the league in 2B and Total Bases.

At the age of 24 - he was arguably the most feared hitter on a team that was 2-wins away from the World Series.

Sure -- don't sign him...let him go somewhere else where he will help a team win.

But you go play with the stats, invent some new ones, and try to justify being economical for a baseball franchise in a league that has no salary cap (!!!), while ignoring championships and division titles, and the need for elite talent to win them.

I have to tell you, I just returned from San Diego and roamed the lobby of the Hyatt where all these young, smart kids are running around, making decisions for major league baseball teams (now, are they representing the winning baseball teams, that's an entirely different question). Half of them look like a baseball bat could / would swing "them".

And you can include the GM of the Tampa Rays (and countless others in there)...who are more equipped to give group projects on a mathematical equation then having any idea what it's like to hit a baseball.

Quite honestly...the 'Moneyball experiment' (which all of these kids are following) was all about exploiting inefficiencies and as Billy Beane said, "when your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him".

Those franchises which are willing to spend are laughing at the Boston Red Sox....and they're certainly not interrupting them.

I was a chemistry major in college, and in my senior year we had a class, ligand field theory (metallic bonding) where we just basically sat around and talked about chemistry. One day the professor told us that he was getting grief from the department head because he was just going to give us all A's, and that we had to do something in order to justify the A. So, he told us all to write a three-page paper on any chemistry principle we chose and then give it to the class as a five-minute presentation explaining the principle. On game day one of the first students presenting wrote an equation on the board and said something to the effect that it described the point she was trying to make. At that point the professor, a Dr. Mitra, a really nice guy, said "No, no, no, I want you to describe what the equation means. Describe the phenomena. Too many people think that writing an equation explains everything, but an equation doesn't demonstrate insight and understanding as to what's going on". I've carried that message with me throughout my entire chemistry career, that an equation ties all the data together, but that the variables all have meaning, and you have to understand what the variables mean to really understand what's going on. This is where I'm at with metrics. They have their place and are useful pieces of data, but sometimes I worry that someone is trying to be the smart one who sees something in the numbers that others miss, but they don't have a good understanding of what went into determining the value of the variables in the equation. They want to be diviners but could end up being deliverers of misinformation.

 

[BravesField]

I was a chemistry major in college, and in my senior year we had a class, ligand field theory (metallic bonding) where we just basically sat around and talked about chemistry. One day the professor told us that he was getting grief from the department head because he was just going to give us all A's, and that we had to do something in order to justify the A. So, he told us all to write a three-page paper on any chemistry principle we chose and then give it to the class as a five-minute presentation explaining the principle. On game day one of the first students presenting wrote an equation on the board and said something to the effect that it described the point she was trying to make. At that point the professor, a Dr. Mitra, a really nice guy, said "No, no, no, I want you to describe what the equation means. Describe the phenomena. Too many people think that writing an equation explains everything, but an equation doesn't demonstrate insight and understanding as to what's going on". I've carried that message with me throughout my entire chemistry career, that an equation ties all the data together, but that the variables all have meaning, and you have to understand what the variables mean to really understand what's going on. This is where I'm at with metrics. They have their place and are useful pieces of data, but sometimes I worry th55at someone is trying to be the smart one who sees something in the numbers that others miss, but they don't have a good understanding of what went into determining the value of the variables in the equation. They want to be diviners but could end up being deliverers of misinformation.

What you just wrote is spot on. I remember reading the Leo Durocher book, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (Fantastic Read), and in the book Leo wanted Eddie Stanky real bad in a trade. The blowback on Stanky was - "He can't hit. He can't run. He can't field. He can't throw. He can't do a goddamn thing....But Beat You. Durocher got Stanky and won a pennant with him playing second base.

Stats are a very important tool, but so is the man.

 

[jon abbey]

What you just wrote is spot on. I remember reading the Leo Durocher book, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (Fantastic Read), and in the book Leo wanted Eddie Stanky real bad in a trade. The blowback on Stanky was - "He can't hit. He can't run. He can't field. He can't throw. He can't do a goddamn thing....But Beat You. Durocher got Stanky and won a pennant with him playing second base.

Stats are a very important tool, but so is the man.

Stanky walked an insane amount, career .268 BA and .410 OBP. Also he did not have a long career but he had a six year stretch in the middle where he put up 32 bWAR. His value was only intangible by the superficial stats used back then, it’s quite easy to see statistically in retrospect.

 

[AlNipper49]

How good is Devers? He's the best player on the team, but he's never been close to MVP level. Paying him like an elite talent doesn't make him one. If he'd take a $30 million a year deal, then sure, since that's what All Star talents get these days. But giving him $40+ million a year just because you're afraid he might leave doesn't make a lot of sense.

you SABR nerds crack me up.

sRC+...wOBA...really?

Do you watch games or do you just perform a data-dump to EXCEL each day at 3 AM?

How'd all this mathematical nonsense work for the Red Sox last season?

At the age of 22 - when most kids are still barely out of the Cape League, and learning how to hit with a wood bat for the first-time - Raffy led the league in 2B and Total Bases.

At the age of 24 - he was arguably the most feared hitter on a team that was 2-wins away from the World Series.

Sure -- don't sign him...let him go somewhere else where he will help a team win.

But you go play with the stats, invent some new ones, and try to justify being economical for a baseball franchise in a league that has no salary cap (!!!), while ignoring championships and division titles, and the need for elite talent to win them.

I have to tell you, I just returned from San Diego and roamed the lobby of the Hyatt where all these young, smart kids are running around, making decisions for major league baseball teams (now, are they representing the winning baseball teams, that's an entirely different question). Half of them look like a baseball bat could / would swing "them".

And you can include the GM of the Tampa Rays (and countless others in there)...who are more equipped to give group projects on a mathematical equation then having any idea what it's like to hit a baseball.

Quite honestly...the 'Moneyball experiment' (which all of these kids are following) was all about exploiting inefficiencies and as Billy Beane said, "when your enemy's making mistakes, don't interrupt him".

Those franchises which are willing to spend are laughing at the Boston Red Sox....and they're certainly not interrupting them.

Olympic baseball player Alex Anthopolous just gave Austin Riley, probably a safer bet over ten years factoring in defense, 10/$212. That number includes buying out some arb years, so back of napkin we are probably talking about 10/$260 for Devers, factoring a bit more benefit to Riley since he may value the reduced risk of getting hurt over those arb years. 10/$280 would probably be on the high end of his market value.

 

[snowmanny]

If the Sox aren’t interested in that trade him to the Mets for Brett Baty.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Devers kind of has the Sox over a barrel right now, though, doesn’t he? Feels like there’s a lot of pressure on the team to get this done. Maybe that dissipated a bit if they can make some solid moves in the coming weeks, but it sure seems like Raffy has a lot of leverage here.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Devers kind of has the Sox over a barrel right now, though, doesn’t he? Feels like there’s a lot of pressure on the team to get this done. Maybe that dissipated a bit if they can make some solid moves in the coming weeks, but it sure seems like Raffy has a lot of leverage here.

If they actually have any real interest.

 

[BravesField]

Stanky walked an insane amount, career .268 BA and .410 OBP. Also he did not have a long career but he had a six year stretch in the middle where he put up 32 bWAR. His value was only intangible by the superficial stats used back then, it’s quite easy to see statistically in retrospect.

Very True....Hindsight is also quite easy to see.

 

[mikcou]

Olympic baseball player Alex Anthopolous just gave Austin Riley, probably a safer bet over ten years factoring in defense, 10/$212. That number includes buying out some arb years, so back of napkin we are probably talking about 10/$260 for Devers, factoring a bit more benefit to Riley since he may value the reduced risk of getting hurt over those arb years. 10/$280 would probably be on the high end of his market value.

I dont see why Riley as a particularly safer bet - theyre both big guys and Riley is considerably less athletic. DRS seems to think hes pretty good, but UZR and OAA both have had as consistently below average (>-5). From watching him, personally hes an incredibly stiff mover and has clearly below average range at 3rd, but has pretty strong fundamentals. Devers is essentially the complete opposite - despite his weight, he moves well, has a good first step and shows above average range; he just loses his throwing mechanics - that was very common in 2021 and resulted in him being a really bad defender (-10). It happened less last season, but sill more frequently than it should resulting in a fringe average season (<-5).

They're both big guys and aren't good defenders; I wouldnt expect either of them to be playing third in their mid 30s, but if I had to be on late 20s and early 30s, I'll take the guy with the better starting athletic profile and hope that he can clean up his mechanics more rather than the guy who really cant lose any athleticism and stay even a fringe defender.

For pricing, Riley would have done an excellent job to get $35M ($7, $12, $17 or so) over the next three years in arbitration so he effectively gave 7 free agency years for $175-180M. So I guess I can see the 10/260 as giving Devers the same free agency equivalent, but guys taking deals three years early are usually taking pretty large discounts; well more than the <10% discount that 10/280 represents.

I think Devers easily gets 10/300+ on the open market with a pretty decent chance hes getting $350M-380M from some team on a 12-13 year deal.

I'd open this offseason at 11/300 inclusive of $18M estimate for 2022 so basically arb plus 10/285 and would be willing to move up 5% or so or add on another year or two at a lower salary if negotiations were going well. So say some range from $11/300 to 13/350. I dont think anything is getting done under $300M when hes this close to free agency and is pretty much guaranteed to get over $300M with significant upside for more as a 27 year old to be free agent.

I dont think the Sox do the above (or even your offer) as they've shown minimal willingness to extend to pay elite talent, but the above seems like a reasonable path to actually get a deal done.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Devers kind of has the Sox over a barrel right now, though, doesn’t he? Feels like there’s a lot of pressure on the team to get this done. Maybe that dissipated a bit if they can make some solid moves in the coming weeks, but it sure seems like Raffy has a lot of leverage here.

Leverage really only exists if there are options and potential consequences. Here, Devers has always had the single option to play until his FA year, then hit the market for whatever he's worth at the time.

He may increase his odds of getting a higher offer as FA gets closer, or if, for example, through scarcity - if there are no quality 3B available through trade or free agency.

But I don't think things have significantly changed any from last week, last month, or even last year.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Leverage really only exists if there are options and potential consequences. Here, Devers has always had the single option to play until his FA year, then hit the market for whatever he's worth at the time.

He may increase his odds of getting a higher offer as FA gets closer, or if, for example, through scarcity - if there are no quality 3B available through trade or free agency.

But I don't think things have significantly changed any from last week, last month, or even last year.

Yup, and he also runs the risk of getting a lower offer if he is seriously injured during his walk year. I'm hoping they make an offer he agrees to and we move along.

 

[E5 Yaz]

He may increase his odds of getting a higher offer as FA gets closer, or if, for example, through scarcity - if there are no quality 3B available through trade or free agency.

Just for data point purposes, from MLB.com, the next free agent class for 3B

Third base: Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Josh Donaldson (mutual option), Eduardo Escobar (club option), Manny Machado (opt-out), Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Just for data point purposes, from MLB.com, the next free agent class for 3B

Third base: Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Josh Donaldson (mutual option), Eduardo Escobar (club option), Manny Machado (opt-out), Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle

Was just looking for this! Definitely some good-decent options if they can’t get Devers long term.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

I dont think anything is getting done under $300M when hes this close to free agency and is pretty much guaranteed to get over $300M with significant upside for more as a 27 year old to be free agent.

I agree that Devers likely wouldn"t sign a straight deal under $300M, but I am curious what others think about an opt out after year 4 (he would be 30). As X just showed, this can be very valuable. Would he go for 10/250 with the opt out and would you offer it?

I am not looking to get into the "opt out benefits the team discussion", but that seems like a reasonable division of risk for the most likely downside of him not sticking at 3B. If he proves he can handle 3B then he opts out and gets a huge new deal. If his defense regresses then having him 1B/DH for 6/150 isn't terrible.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

View: https://twitter.com/Marino_Pepen/status/1602394006360555533?s=20&t=ctQRRBckHcbPXRV3vfWMVw


"The #RedSox are not close to Rafael Devers' initial aspirations, which could be around $360 MM/12..."

Cross posted from another thread. I would offer him 12/$325m yesterday. Since it's (ostensibly) a negotiation, this is probably pretty close to the $360m he's reportedly asking for. That would be an AAV of "only" $27m per year and takes him through his age 37 season. Conversely, we all know Bogaerts just got covered through his age 40 season, so this doesn't seem too outlandish for me. Pay for what should be 8 years of a player's prime and 4 years of the decline - hoping he's still a good but not elite bat his ages 34-37 seasons doesn't seem unreasonable.

Judge has accounted for roughly a 24 cumulative WAR before signing his deal just recently that will take him through his age 39 season. Devers has a cumulative WAR of 18 and is, of course, 5 years younger than Judge. Since you're talking about an AAV of $27m for Devers that would "cost you" that seasons version of Yoshida and Chris Martin in any given year, I know I'd FAR rather have Devers on my team than Yoshida and Martin for the same cost.

 

[jon abbey]

bWAR numbers are 15.2 for Devers’ career, 37 for Judge’s. Are you using Fangraphs?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

bWAR numbers are 15.2 for Devers’ career, 37 for Judge’s. Are you using Fangraphs?

Yes, I was using FanGraphs. Is there a more widely accepted site on the board that is superior? I'm happy to use that instead, I wasn't aware of what that might be.

To your point in the "rumors" thread, on that one, it's easy for me at least on Bloom. He's just damned if he doesn't. You have an elite offensive talent whom is only 26 years of age. You're a big market club. You're going to spend the money somewhere (in no way, shape or form do I think the Red Sox are cheap - I think they've been spending in the wrong places).

I'd rather pay $27m for Devers and then hope that we can draft a few kids we can turn into decent bullpen pieces than a situation like (just guessing) $16m per year on Josh Donaldson and $2m on Rodriguez and $8m on Chris Martin. I think it SHOULD be easier to find guys whom can cover the 6th and 7th innings at low cost than it is to find an all star 3b in their mid 20s, and that's how I'd prefer to see the Sox spend their money. Pay elite prices for elite talent. Pay nothing prices for middle inning relief pitchers.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Judge has accounted for roughly a 24 cumulative WAR before signing his deal just recently that will take him through his age 39 season. Devers has a cumulative WAR of 18 and is, of course, 5 years younger than Judge. Since you're talking about an AAV of $27m for Devers that would "cost you" that seasons version of Yoshida and Chris Martin in any given year, I know I'd FAR rather have Devers on my team than Yoshida and Martin for the same cost.

Yes, I was using FanGraphs. Is there a more widely accepted site on the board that is superior? I'm happy to use that instead, I wasn't aware of what that might be.

Maybe I'm missing something obvious (wouldn't be the first, second, or even the third time that has happened), but on FanGraphs I'm seeing 36.1 total WAR for Judge. 18.1 for Devers which matches what you posted.

24.7 for Judge if you don't count this past season before he signed his deal. If you also subtract Devers' most recent season his WAR was 13.2.

 

[jon abbey]

Yes, I was using FanGraphs. Is there a more widely accepted site on the board that is superior? I'm happy to use that instead, I wasn't aware of what that might be.

The two differing WAR calculations are found at Baseball Reference (bWAR) and Fangraphs (fWAR), either is fine but they should be labelled as such for easier discussion.

 

[LostinNJ]

Because I do not think this front office will sign any player to a long contract that's likely to be a bad investment in the later years, Devers will be gone within a year one way or another. So trade him now for the best available package. The Mets are a plausible destination. Steve Cohen seems like the kind of guy who will burn prospects to win now.

 

[jon abbey]

Because I do not think this front office will sign any player to a long contract that's likely to be a bad investment in the later years, Devers will be gone within a year one way or another. So trade him now for the best available package. The Mets are a plausible destination. Steve Cohen seems like the kind of guy who will burn prospects to win now.

And probably more likely today than yesterday, after the Braves just landed Sean Murphy.

 

[teddywingman]

If I'm Bloom or the Sox FO, the Devers situation is terrifying. You risk cementing the idea that homegrown talent shouldn't expect their rightful payday, with the last remaining star, who also carries the most risk.

I can't remember who it was that posted Devers' closest comps from Bref, but it's scary. The other thing that's scary is his build, and watching him struggle to stay on the field during his age 25 season--visibly showing signs of pain while swinging the way he does.

It looks unsustainable to me. His limping at 3/4 speed on the basepaths is not unusual in a long season, but seems unusual at such a young age.

I voted other cause I want to see him bounce back this year and show more durability. Yeah, he played in 141 games, but many of those were at less than full ability/effort.

See where he's at in July.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

@jon abbey - thank you for the note on bWAR and fWAR - truly appreciate the help on trying to make new posters into better posters. @EvilEmpire - I'm the one missing something, not you. You're absolutely correct.

If I'm Bloom or the Sox FO, the Devers situation is terrifying. You risk cementing the idea that homegrown talent shouldn't expect their rightful payday, with the last remaining star, who also carries the most risk.

I can't remember who it was that posted Devers' closest comps from Bref, but it's scary. The other thing that's scary is his build, and watching him struggle to stay on the field during his age 25 season--visibly showing signs of pain while swinging the way he does.

It looks unsustainable to me. His limping at 3/4 speed on the basepaths is not unusual in a long season, but seems unusual at such a young age.

I voted other cause I want to see him bounce back this year and show more durability. Yeah, he played in 141 games, but many of those were at less than full ability/effort.

See where he's at in July.

I don't want to take the words out of someone else mouth, but the comps I see listed (just isolating out the most notable and recent players) of similar batters through the age 25 seasons include Eric Chavez, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Troy Glaus, and Nolan Arenado.

Chavez stopped being a dependable, useful player after his age 28 season. This is the "worst case" of the bunch. Zimmerman started breaking down around age 29, save a bounce back year in 2017. Wright started missing some real time in his age 28 season, but did remain a mostly productive full time player (two seasons of between 100-115 games) up through his age 31 season. Rolen missed a ton of time his age 27 and 30 seasons but remained a productive player through his age 35 season. Longoria broke down after his age 33 season - and he was about average his last 3 full time seasons. Glaus missed significant time his age 26 and 27 seasons, but otherwise was a reliable middle of the order bat through his age 31 season. Arenado just complete his age 31 season which has been the best of his career so far. Probably Rolen or Arenado are the most "optimistic" outcomes.

The thing we don't know is how much any of those players might have been (or appeared) more durable with the DH. Zimmerman (Washington), Wright (Mets), Rolen (Phillies and Cardinals), Longoria (Giants, for his age 32 and 33 seasons). I believe Arenado had 16 starts at DH this past year.

I guess if one thinks Devers is "more like" Chavez, Zimmerman or Wright, you should want to deal him for prospects. If one thinks he's more like Longoria or Glaus it's up in the air. If one thinks he's more like Rolen or Arenado, you should probably want to extend him at whatever it costs. But I'll admittedly leave that "projection" up to the plenty of people on here smarter than I am. Looking at those similarities and knowing that Devers has the option of moving to 1b and eventually DH - the latter of which some of the others did not - I'd lean toward extending him.

I will say the one thing I DON'T want to see happen is to enter the season with Devers on the Red Sox and in a walk year. Either decide he is part of the next core and extend him or deal him for young players whom MIGHT become part of the core. Don't lose him for the relative nothing of a comp pick.

 

[teddywingman]

@jon abbey - thank you for the note on bWAR and fWAR - truly appreciate the help on trying to make new posters into better posters. @EvilEmpire - I'm the one missing something, not you. You're absolutely correct.



I don't want to take the words out of someone else mouth, but the comps I see listed (just isolating out the most notable and recent players) of similar batters through the age 25 seasons include Eric Chavez, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Troy Glaus, and Nolan Arenado.

Chavez stopped being a dependable, useful player after his age 28 season. This is the "worst case" of the bunch. Zimmerman started breaking down around age 29, save a bounce back year in 2017. Wright started missing some real time in his age 28 season, but did remain a mostly productive full time player (two seasons of between 100-115 games) up through his age 31 season. Rolen missed a ton of time his age 27 and 30 seasons but remained a productive player through his age 35 season. Longoria broke down after his age 33 season - and he was about average his last 3 full time seasons. Glaus missed significant time his age 26 and 27 seasons, but otherwise was a reliable middle of the order bat through his age 31 season. Arenado just complete his age 31 season which has been the best of his career so far. Probably Rolen or Arenado are the most "optimistic" outcomes.

The thing we don't know is how much any of those players might have been (or appeared) more durable with the DH. Zimmerman (Washington), Wright (Mets), Rolen (Phillies and Cardinals), Longoria (Giants, for his age 32 and 33 seasons). I believe Arenado had 16 starts at DH this past year.

I guess if one thinks Devers is "more like" Chavez, Zimmerman or Wright, you should want to deal him for prospects. If one thinks he's more like Longoria or Glaus it's up in the air. If one thinks he's more like Rolen or Arenado, you should probably want to extend him at whatever it costs. But I'll admittedly leave that "projection" up to the plenty of people on here smarter than I am. Looking at those similarities and knowing that Devers has the option of moving to 1b and eventually DH - the latter of which some of the others did not - I'd lean toward extending him.

I will say the one thing I DON'T want to see happen is to enter the season with Devers on the Red Sox and in a walk year. Either decide he is part of the next core and extend him or deal him for young players whom MIGHT become part of the core. Don't lose him for the relative nothing of a comp pick.

Thanks for doing the work on those comps. I honestly can't remember who pointed it out before. Only a couple weeks ago but in a different thread I think.

Devers at DH does have way more value than all those previous NL guys.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Happy to help @teddywingman - plenty of others have helped me with where to find stuff, so I wanted to pay it forward also!

Agree on the "more value" because he can shift to 1b and DH - which I think probably would have helped those guys, a lot in the way I think it did Arenado last year to get 16 games "off" where he was still hitting. That said, I'm more and more in the camp that we're just no longer going to sign any long term deals that cover seasons past 32 or such and we kind of need to operate in that reality, which anything like a 10-12 year offer to Devers clearly would.

So, operating in that context, I'd trade him, hope we land someone like the 2021 versions of "Vaughn Grissom and Michael Harris II" and then extend those guys when they come up and produce.

 

[E5 Yaz]

After seeing these insane shortstop deals, does it change your opinion on whether the Red Sox will/should sign Devers?

 

[streeter88]

No I said trade him before the season starts. But I think he is now not going to sign with the Red Sox before the season for less than 15/$450M.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

No I said trade him before the season starts. But I think he is now not going to sign with the Red Sox before the season for less than 15/$450M.

Agreed. He would be a fool to sign anything less this season. He could have a sub par year and he would get >= the Correa deal next year.

 

[chawson]

No I said trade him before the season starts. But I think he is now not going to sign with the Red Sox before the season for less than 15/$450M.

Devers had the 22nd highest bWAR in MLB last year. I hope that he’d settle for something less than the richest MLB contract of all time.