Devers : No talks after season begins (Speier report)
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I voted trade him at the deadline after trying to get an extension done, but I'm not really firm on that. Depending on how the rest of the offseason goes I could see trying to trade him before the season as well. In any case I'd probably at least make an effort to extend him. As I've said in other threads I think the idea of trying to sign him in the 300-350mm range for 15 years is intriguing. That'd take him to age 41, and the AAV is low enough to make the contract very good for the near term and less of a liability in the long term. There's upside for the team if he defies the odds and ends up as one of those hitters that ages really gracefully, and for Devers I imagine that the total $$$ amount would be enough to make it at least a little bit hard to refuse. Sell it as "we want you to be the next David Ortiz."
Trading him at the deadline doesn't make any sense since he loses a huge amount of value if the acquiring team only gets him for 2 months, and negotiations during the season never go anywhere.
They're clearly not interested in the type of contract it would take to sign him. It would be nice if they got 2 bags of balls for him, as opposed to the single bag of balls they got for Betts.
Yeah... other. I'd offer a 10/300 deal (which rumors were a few weeks back that he was already offered that and rejected it) with opt-outs after 4 years. He has some injury concerns... has had two straight seasons with offensive implosions after the trade deadline (injury related in '22 and who knows what happened in '21) and isn't exactly a defensive genius out there. If he turns it down.. then yeah, look to trade him at the deadline in '23 if the Sox are outside looking in more than 5 games.
Really tough to answer without knowing what other moves are looming this offseason, but as it stands you have to really consider trading him sooner rather than later. In this market, it would likely take something outlandish for him to sign before free agency, and I just don't see the Sox going there. Even something like 10/360 seems like it won't get it done right now - he has all of the leverage and I don't see why he wouldn't use it.
I love Raffy, but I don't agree with the calls for sign him for ultramega contracts. He is an all-star level player, but (so far, at least) not an MVP level player. He is not Judge; as someone pointed out in another thread, covid year aside, Judge's WAR floor is Raffy's ceiling so far. Maybe he continues to improve, but so far I don't see him as a player you completely break the bank for.
Many of us are desperate to retain our homegrown players but I think a lot of it is because we haven't had any good ones coming up behind them. Houston can let Springer and Correa go because they have others who can replace them. That is what we need to fix about this team, and maybe Casas and Bello in '23 will be the beginning of the wave that continues, but we're not there yet. We won't solve it by giving huge contracts to one or two players.
Many of us are desperate to retain our homegrown players but I think a lot of it is because we haven't had any good ones coming up behind them. Houston can let Springer and Correa go because they have others who can replace them. That is what we need to fix about this team, and maybe Casas and Bello in '23 will be the beginning of the wave that continues, but we're not there yet. We won't solve it by giving huge contracts to one or two players.
He's the only elite talent in the organization, and the right one to overpay given that he's hitting free agency young. I'd be very aggressive in trying to sign him now, and if you come to the conclusion that you aren't willing to pay his market value, I'd trade not only him but every player on the roster with any value and just start over.
I voted to trade him now.
For two (admittedly) pessimistic reasons:
1. Bloom et al have demonstrated they don’t have the skills to properly value and retain premium homegrown talent.
2. Devers has needed both Cora and Bogaerts to lean on him to keep in shape and to teach him how to be a professional. Neither will be around (Bogie is gone and Cora himself has said he’s got an end date on his Sox managerial career) much longer and any long-term deal with Devers is more likely to turn Panda-esque than it is to extract equivalent value on the field, imho.
For two (admittedly) pessimistic reasons:
1. Bloom et al have demonstrated they don’t have the skills to properly value and retain premium homegrown talent.
2. Devers has needed both Cora and Bogaerts to lean on him to keep in shape and to teach him how to be a professional. Neither will be around (Bogie is gone and Cora himself has said he’s got an end date on his Sox managerial career) much longer and any long-term deal with Devers is more likely to turn Panda-esque than it is to extract equivalent value on the field, imho.
The reason I phrased the first option the way I did is that we'd (almost) all agree to the Red Sox doing their best to sign him to an extension. It's the second half -- if he walks, he walks -- that is the risk involved.
After the market exploded again this time around, Devers would have to be extremely motivated to sign before hitting free agency. Current management reportedly hasn't given out such contract offers in the range we're currently seeing. It would be an outlier situation for them to do so with Devers.
If they do, fine, we locked up a prime player at a young age. If they don't ...
It's the emotional side of me that looks down the road to The Bidet, where they're trotting Donaldson out for one more season and would have no problem slotting Devers in next year. Of course, even if the Sox trade him now, the Yankees would be lurking next offseason ... but there's a chance of something decent in return from a team that might offer him the type of deal he wouldn't/couldn't get from Boston.
It's a tough call ... so much so that I think everyone's right in the way they've voted
After the market exploded again this time around, Devers would have to be extremely motivated to sign before hitting free agency. Current management reportedly hasn't given out such contract offers in the range we're currently seeing. It would be an outlier situation for them to do so with Devers.
If they do, fine, we locked up a prime player at a young age. If they don't ...
It's the emotional side of me that looks down the road to The Bidet, where they're trotting Donaldson out for one more season and would have no problem slotting Devers in next year. Of course, even if the Sox trade him now, the Yankees would be lurking next offseason ... but there's a chance of something decent in return from a team that might offer him the type of deal he wouldn't/couldn't get from Boston.
It's a tough call ... so much so that I think everyone's right in the way they've voted
Why would Devers sign? The organization has proven again, again, and now again that it will lowball offers to players still under contract. All the evidence suggests the free agent market will be much more lucrative that whatever Sox table at this point.
Other -
1) Have a sit down today. Tell him you want a fair market extension offer, but you're worried about the hamstring. See if there's common ground.
2) If so, stay at the table and get that extension done, as long as it's not crazy. Be ready to trade off with opt-outs and the like. When you're done, make your formal offer.
3) If not, for whatever reason, assess your club. (Maybe you can't do that till the end of Spring Training.)
3a) If at any point you think you have a crappy chance in 2023, maybe from an explosion of pitcher injuries in Spring Training, explore trades.
Trade him early, trade him late. Set up something provisionally with another club to be revisited when the season starts, and his hammy proves good, or whatever. It's a question of opportunity and fit.
3b) If you think you are viable, play Devers till the trade deadline. If out, trade for sure, looking to the future. If in, maybe you swap-trade if you have a real weakness, or you just keep him and play out the season.
I think we're likely in 3b, since we have sort of a 2 year window for the club's current incarnation.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
The club is mostly young, and AFAIK, the only truly significant FA player the Sox would have in 2023 is Devers. (Paxton and Enrique Hernandez as well.) But apart from them the 2024 club is likely to essentially be the 2023 club but more seasoned/upgraded. All the new FA signings so far are for at least 2 years.
After that, it's Sale (option?), Verdugo, Jansen, Martin, Arroyo, and Pivetta who are FAs following the 2024 season.
So, IMO, trading Devers really hinges on everybody else, including Paxton and Sale. If they are both healthy, Paxton might be a key part of a 2023 run, so maybe you keep Devers regardless. If they both flame out, you're probably looking at building up the rotation anyway, no matter how good the youngsters prove to be.
A ton of caveats apply, like the performances from Casas, Bello, Crawford, and whatever other signings or trades they make. If a lot of those question marks tick positive, they're going to be surprisingly good, like they were in 2021.
And like 2021, there's a lot of volatility.
1) Have a sit down today. Tell him you want a fair market extension offer, but you're worried about the hamstring. See if there's common ground.
2) If so, stay at the table and get that extension done, as long as it's not crazy. Be ready to trade off with opt-outs and the like. When you're done, make your formal offer.
3) If not, for whatever reason, assess your club. (Maybe you can't do that till the end of Spring Training.)
3a) If at any point you think you have a crappy chance in 2023, maybe from an explosion of pitcher injuries in Spring Training, explore trades.
Trade him early, trade him late. Set up something provisionally with another club to be revisited when the season starts, and his hammy proves good, or whatever. It's a question of opportunity and fit.
3b) If you think you are viable, play Devers till the trade deadline. If out, trade for sure, looking to the future. If in, maybe you swap-trade if you have a real weakness, or you just keep him and play out the season.
I think we're likely in 3b, since we have sort of a 2 year window for the club's current incarnation.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
The club is mostly young, and AFAIK, the only truly significant FA player the Sox would have in 2023 is Devers. (Paxton and Enrique Hernandez as well.) But apart from them the 2024 club is likely to essentially be the 2023 club but more seasoned/upgraded. All the new FA signings so far are for at least 2 years.
After that, it's Sale (option?), Verdugo, Jansen, Martin, Arroyo, and Pivetta who are FAs following the 2024 season.
So, IMO, trading Devers really hinges on everybody else, including Paxton and Sale. If they are both healthy, Paxton might be a key part of a 2023 run, so maybe you keep Devers regardless. If they both flame out, you're probably looking at building up the rotation anyway, no matter how good the youngsters prove to be.
A ton of caveats apply, like the performances from Casas, Bello, Crawford, and whatever other signings or trades they make. If a lot of those question marks tick positive, they're going to be surprisingly good, like they were in 2021.
And like 2021, there's a lot of volatility.
Devers presumably has a lot of good years left. I'd offer him 12x350, be willing to go up to 380ish. If he doesn't take that, then sure, trade away. Thanks for the memories.
I think Bello is the one to focus heavily on extending, though.
I think Bello is the one to focus heavily on extending, though.
Ownership should ask themselves if they’re prepared to commit to over $300 million on him. If the answer is no, then trade him for the best possible package.
Trade him before the season. He's an elite hitter, no doubt, but at 6'0 and 240 pounds, there is too much risk. Odds are he'll be heavier, slower and have lower half injuries.
I think the answer here depends a lot on what happens this off-season. If Bloom can put together a genuinely competitive team for next season, Devers has value by, like, actually play good baseball for the Red Sox. If Bloom can't field a team that's going to be competitive with the rest of the division, AND if they're not sincerely committed to going hard to re-sign Devers, then I think you try to trade Devers as soon as you can for as much as you can (even if that ends up not being a whole lot). If we don't have a competitive present and Devers isn't going to be part of the future, there's no reason for him to stick around, really.
Spring Training is a lifetime from now. If you want to trade him now, that's fine, but maybe we should hold off on throwing out the 2023 season in December of 2022.
I threw out the 2023 season in about August of 2022, the roster construction/payroll situation is a cluster. Sure, a lot of things can happen between now and spring training, but I just can't look at this team with clear eyes and see a path forward for this season. YMMV.
Exactly. I have a hard time seeing a team that just signed two back end relievers and a Japanese outfielder that add a combined ~$40M to the 2023 payroll deciding to blow things up because they were unable to re-sign one player (a key player but just one nonetheless). The off-season isn't over. If they re-sign Eovaldi and snag Swanson (just to toss out a name), it's not difficult to say they've improved the roster overall. But we won't have the full picture for at least another three months.
Offer 12/400 in this offseason. If he declines try to trade him to Dodgers, with a couple prospects, for Betts and Vargas.
I've changed the poll to allow changing of votes ... at least I think I have (I never know for sure with these things)
Trade him now. Get what you can.
f you’re Devers, why would you even want to stay here long term? What’s the appeal?
f you’re Devers, why would you even want to stay here long term? What’s the appeal?
If you don’t think you can extend him then just rip the bandaid off and trade him. I’d be willing to go into the 10/300 ballpark but if the team doesn’t want to go there or Devers wouldn’t accept that then I don’t think there’s a reason to not see what you can get for a full season of him as opposed to doing a deal at the deadline. I’m hoping that something gets done but I’m also admittedly stung by what’s happened with X and Mookie and thus ready for disappointment.
The problem is that the universe of teams to whom Devers can be traded will shrink exponentially in the same time frame. The best option is to see if a deal can be hammered out now before the unlucky losers of free agents sign jetsam and flotsam to fill up their budget. If Correa doesn't go to SF, they are an option. SEA is an option. CHC is an option. LAD/LAAoA? The Metropolitans? Babe Ruth redux?
I voted to trade at the deadline if unable to come to terms before then. Seems to me that trades made at the deadline haven't really returned all that much less than trades before the season starts, so may as well give yourself as much time as possible to get something done.
But yeah, I can't stomach losing Devers for nothing.
But yeah, I can't stomach losing Devers for nothing.
I voted Other. Give him your best offer - 10 years $300/$350/whatever today and if he doesn't accept by Christmas, wish him well in his new uniform while getting the best return you can get.
How good is Devers? He's the best player on the team, but he's never been close to MVP level. Paying him like an elite talent doesn't make him one. If he'd take a $30 million a year deal, then sure, since that's what All Star talents get these days. But giving him $40+ million a year just because you're afraid he might leave doesn't make a lot of sense.
Yup. It's time for the FO to have a frank sit down with ownership and then with Devers' agent and see if there's any overlap. If so, great; if not, it's getting towards time to see what he'll return.
Trade him now. He's going to be crazy expensive and doesn't project to play a premium position for too much longer. He's young enough that someone would likely give you a good package for his age 26 season.
You could try extending him to a very high AAV shorter deal, something like 4/170 and an option or two, but I doubt he takes it.
Without Xander the Sox' window realistically starts in 2025, and you will have a better picture of what that looks like then. I know they can't tell the fans this but they would need a whole lot of luck to be in real contention this or next year and the flexibility and prospects are more valuable than Devers. Sorry.
You could try extending him to a very high AAV shorter deal, something like 4/170 and an option or two, but I doubt he takes it.
Without Xander the Sox' window realistically starts in 2025, and you will have a better picture of what that looks like then. I know they can't tell the fans this but they would need a whole lot of luck to be in real contention this or next year and the flexibility and prospects are more valuable than Devers. Sorry.
I think this is exactly right. Devers is young enough that he'd still be in his prime when the team (hopefully) gets to be a serious contender again. So make whatever your best offer is going to be for him, negotiate up to that point in this off-season. If he doesn't take it, you sell him for the best prospects you can possibly find.
The way the Bogaerts situation was handled was completely inexcusable. Either a) the front office drastically misread the market or b) never really wanted the player and for some inexplicable reason chose NOT to trade him at the deadline and thus let him walk for nothing. Either one is a pretty bad indictment, though I suppose I'd personally find option A to be less damaging because plenty of smart people misread markets all the time; option B is just willful negligence - so I'm hoping it's A and that's what I'll choose to believe.
However, don't make the same mistake with Devers.
To remain consistent...I'll post the same here as I posted in another thread:
If I'm the Sox, I go to Raffy and his agent right now and say: "8/$300M (with an opt-out after 5)--- what do you say?"....
and I'll tweak the options to:
after year 5 --- dual option (player and team)
after year 6 --- player option only
after year 7 --- player option only
Under that scenario, I lock up Raffy for at least 5/$187.5M
During this winter meeting, you would have done that for "any" available top hitter in MLB -- which Devers is.
If I'm the Sox, I go to Raffy and his agent right now and say: "8/$300M (with an opt-out after 5)--- what do you say?"....
and I'll tweak the options to:
after year 5 --- dual option (player and team)
after year 6 --- player option only
after year 7 --- player option only
Under that scenario, I lock up Raffy for at least 5/$187.5M
During this winter meeting, you would have done that for "any" available top hitter in MLB -- which Devers is.
I think everyone agrees that if the Sox do not offer him very close to free agency money now there is not much chance that he will sign.
But as for why sign now? At the amounts he's looking at, you have to ascribe some value to the guarantee of a massive contract as soon as possible. He will make about $17 million this year so it's an automatic raise and a guarantee of more than 20x his current career earnings.
I know some guys don't care. Judge didn't. And it sounds like Soto doesn't either. But if you offer him something that is close to free agency money now, you might get a decent deal. If he's thinking he's a $450 million player, then there's really nothing you can do. And if the Red Sox would be thinking that a number in the 2s gets it done, they might as well trade him. But right now they have a period where they can negotiate with him exclusively and so if they are prepared to consider being serious FA bidders in 2024, they might as well do it now.
You've watched him the last 3 years - and you don't think he's an elite hitter in MLB?
You're kidding, right?
I watched him go a month without making contact on a fastball in 2021 and put up a .515 OPS this past August as the team collapsed. When he's on a hot streak, he looks unstoppable, but he's prone to terrible, terrible slumps that bring his overall OPS+ down to a 130-140. That's a good hitter, but not elite.
How do you define elite? Top 10%? Top 20%?
Over the past three years, Devers' wRC+ among qualified hitters is 132, which ties him for 19th place with 5 other guys out of a total of 118. So if top 20% is elite, then Devers is barely elite. By wOBA he's a bit better, tied for 13th place with one other. By fWAR he's tied for 26th with one other.
Basically depending on your expectation and metric, I think one can make an argument that Devers is either barely elite or barely not elite.
Top 20% is kind of misleading since that's just the top 20% of players who played enough to qualify. Probably simpler to say he's solidly a top 20 hitter with meh defense. By definition that's hard to find, but whether or not you call it "elite" probably comes down to semantics. Are there 10 elite hitters? 5? 30?
Seems like he's a step below the Trout / Soto / Judge level and solidly in the next tier. If he was a SS or a premium defender you'd pay him but if he has to DH soonish I don't do it.
Seems like he's a step below the Trout / Soto / Judge level and solidly in the next tier. If he was a SS or a premium defender you'd pay him but if he has to DH soonish I don't do it.
Trade him before the season if he won't take 8/240-260. I dont think any of these guys are ever worth the price tag they come with.
There's always another Mookie/Xander/Devers people will root for. The team shouldn't be beholden to making dumb decisions based on what fans want, especially fans that are still going to watch regardless because at the end of the day the only thing that matters is laundry and rings.
Also this team is structurally flawed in so many ways. Better to slash and burn and see where we are in 5 years.
There's always another Mookie/Xander/Devers people will root for. The team shouldn't be beholden to making dumb decisions based on what fans want, especially fans that are still going to watch regardless because at the end of the day the only thing that matters is laundry and rings.
Also this team is structurally flawed in so many ways. Better to slash and burn and see where we are in 5 years.
Whatever he wants could be ... just be get me out of Boston. Again, the question needs to be asked: What is the appeal of staying longterm in Boston? The fall foliage? The Essex Coastal Scenic byway?