It's crazy, and it wasn't like he was just sitting in the corner hitting wide open 3s. He hit a TON of shots with a hand in his face, and especially later he was absolutely the guy I wanted to see take the deep 3 while covered as the shot clock was about to sound.
Derrick White, extends 4yrs/$125.9M
- Thread starter benhogan
- Start date
JB?
I don't know if you consider this "top of the league" but in his first 4 years in the league, Channing Frye shot 29.0% on 70 total attempts over the four years and then went to PHO and hit 43.9% on 392 attempts and 39% on 439 attemps the following year.
Jason Kidd shot 27.2% and 33.6% in his first 2 years (257 and 396 attempts); when he was 34, he hit 38.1% on 312 and then 40.6% on 323 attempts the next year and 42.5% on 414 attempts the year after that.
Seems like DW is finally getting his due as a top 30-40, fringe All-Star level guy. That's awesome, but basically all those guys are on a max contracts or will be on a max contract soon.
What is DW's max? Can we afford that? Should we at age 29? Obviously everyone on the team and FO wants him back, but I hope Wyc really does too.
Pretty soon we are looking at 60M/year for JT/JB, 30+M for KP, JH, and DW. Could be a starting 5 costing well over 200M in the not too distant future.
Fortunately PP and AH are under 10 and everyone else is cheap. But still. Ouch.
What is DW's max? Can we afford that? Should we at age 29? Obviously everyone on the team and FO wants him back, but I hope Wyc really does too.
Pretty soon we are looking at 60M/year for JT/JB, 30+M for KP, JH, and DW. Could be a starting 5 costing well over 200M in the not too distant future.
Fortunately PP and AH are under 10 and everyone else is cheap. But still. Ouch.
DW’s max extension from the Cs is 4/$127, since it’s based on his current salary. if he plays out his contract, he could get a lot more than that on the open market. but bogh Jrue and KP left $ on the table to play for a winner; mqaybe DW will too. After that, it’s just a question of how many years of taxes Wyc will pay.
Does Keith lurk here? If so allow me to say he does great work.
And if he doesn't allow me to say that the Cs absolutely should keep Derrick White. He still has a mouth full of teeth.
He used to be a mod with me on realgm, I wonder if him randomly being a Yankees fan kept him from ending up here? There are a few obviously, but they’re mostly Knicks fans.
That Tweet was timed perfectly for the question at hand. Plus we do allow Yankee fans here and we have to admit they are, to a poster, often preferable to some Boston sports fans.
Keith, if you are listening, get the DWhite deal done, please and thank you.
Yup. That # is definitely fair for DW, I can't imagine the Celtics will be able to ever get him for any less (barring catastrophic injury next year).
Will be interesting if DW takes the assured payday now or wants one crack at FA. And of course, will be interesting if Wyc commits to a 200M++ starting 5.
I think it was upthread where we discussex this previously but I think if DW doesn't sign an extension, he isn't re-signing here and then BOS has to think about trading him.
Which would suck -- DW is an extremely good piece and very good at being the 3/4/5/6 option (whatever you want to call him with Al, KP, and Jrue) -- but I trust Brad to figure it out. But again... that would suck. I prefer White coming back -- it's about Wyc's pocketbook. I wouldn't be shocked (okay a little shocked) if Wyc sold a piece to get a big investor in to help pay for the next X years. Because unless one of the Jays has a legal problem, they'll hopefully be here for life. And if you want to compete every year, you have to pay to surround them. So... we will see.
Makes sense, and DW is likely leaving a good chunk of $ on the table if he takes 4/126 from us. But it would also really suck to have to trade him before even getting the chance to repeat with this group.
Agreed that if he doesn't take the 126M from us now, he is almost certainly going to get too much from someone else next offseason for Wyc to afford. Would be pretty crazy to pay the 4th or 5th option on the team 40M+ per year given our looming tax situation.
Yes, it's been reported many, many times recently. I was skeptical this spring that he'd take it, given the discount it represents, but seems like it's happening.
Wrt Wyc's pocketbook: even if you think he won't pay up over time, signing DWhite to a ~$31M AAV contract is a no-brainer, for the same reason maxing Jaylen was: you have a positive-value deal the day it's signed. Can always trade those for tax relief and assets.
Same logic holds for a Hauser extension, if he's amenable.
The Celtics clearly have an organizational philosophy to aggressively extend whenever possible, for exactly this reason.
Are player options allowed in extensions? Could White get more from the Celtics by signing, say, a 1+1 extension and then a 4/whatever extension the following year?
I'm not a cap expert but I don't think a 1+1 contract can be extended. It would have to be 3 years (including options). https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nba-contract-extensions-intro-veteran-zach-zobell-xk4lc
I would presume that if DW signed a 2+1 and then extended after that he might be able to get more total dollars but he's also could lose $ if he's injured/ineffective. But I'm sire his agent has run these #s.
1. Brad will offer the +40% extension and Derrick will pick up his $126M bag. The guy has literally given up his front teeth to play here. He's the last player I'd expect to turn down guaranteed $$$ to play the UFA guessing game 12 months later.
2. Divesting a large ownership stake to bigger pockets is an option, as we've seen in Cuban's case.
Collect a few billion, own smaller %, run basketball operations, & not have to be concerned with footing 100% of the tax bill.
3. I'd be shocked if Wyc/Steve sacrificed winning because of tax penalties. Divestment is just one of several financial levers they can pull to make sure asset value outpaces the tax.
Why? I know the figure that Brad can offer now is limited by his current contract. Could the C’s not offer him more a year from now?
P.S. There’s no fucking way they’re trading Derrick White.
Because assuming his play continues, if DW goes to free agency, he'd be eligible for a contrsct that avetages somewhere close to $50M. BOS is already set up to pay hundreds of millions in repeater taxes; adding $20M per year to DW's salary would - in and of itself - substantially add to that and I don't think Wyc an afford it. I don't think any team can have 3 max contracts - the CBA was designed to prevent that.
If DW doesn't sign his extension and BOS is sure it can't pay $50M a year, what would you do at that point? I'll note that his salary slot is important to the team.
At any raye, hopefully this is all moot (and will be mute) as everything I've seen suggests he's going to sign his extension. Msybe they can throw some $ in for dental work.
In this thought exercise, I would sign DW at whatever figure the market determines and adjust my overall team payroll elsewhere.
How does the projected new NBA TV money, about $75B over 11 years, (about 3X the current deal) impact future player contract sizes. As NBA players receive 50% of NBA revenues would it make more financial sense to sign a deal ( with some type of insurance floater) that coincided with the expected surge in NBA TV revs after 2024-25 season? Or is there an automatic salary adjuster?
I’m curious to know just how much winning the title is worth, financially, to the Celtics organization. Any way to get that kind of info?
No way to estimate the value of a championship, but sadly, I’d also say the marginal value of additional championships is probably small. The Celtics are a very valuable brand, and will remain so, even without DW (obviously hoping that’s not the case)
I don't know, but I do think that breaking through and winning the title makes the team much more likely to deal with a big tax bill (See GS).
If this team continued to fall short, it would be more tempting to shake things up and save a boatload of $ in the process. Now that we've won and people want to start talking dynasty, I expect Wyc to be more willing to ride it out. At least within reason.
The NBA luxury tax is really steep.... the Warriors are paying 177M in luxury tax this year alone (they were 40M over the tax #). The Celtics team this year already resulted in a 44M bill (they were 18M over the #).
If you go repeatedly go into luxury tax land for multiple years, you can be paying like 5x for every additional dollar over eventually, it gets crazy very fast.
Adding 10-15M per year for a DW FA contract compared to extension could be adding 50+M per year. So I agree with others that the time to sign him is really now, having him get to FA would be a major problem.
The cap goes up by 10% a year after next year for probably the next 15 to 20 years. In order to avoid the KD Golden State situation, the CBA has a flatten cap raise provision. Basically the cap can only go up 10% year to year while the extra player money goes into a pool. Until the pool is drained the cap raises 10% a year.
This means Max contracts become more value because they only raise 8% a year.
Edit - The Celtics will bring in somewhere between 450-550 million in revenue this year Only the Lakers, Golden State, and the Knicks bring in more.
Owning your arena, the overall NBA TV deal, market size, & sponsorships have a big impact on asset value.
You could ballpark how much being competitive VS. banners impacts enterprise value by looking at the Celtics Championship net revenue bump multiplied by current multiples (13X) + goodwill value.
Lenders have probably run this calculation & shared it with the Celtic ownership group.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2023/10/26/the-most-valuable-nba-teams-2023/
Thanks.
I wonder given that the Celts are a tenant and not owners and don't have access to certain income flows that the above teams have and reflecting the projected higher cash flow from TV, and given a current weakness in commercial real estate markets whether it might make economic sense to develop a 2nd stadium in greater Boston
Curious what kind of steps you would take. JT is about to sign his max extension; he isn't going anywhere. JB, KP, and Jrue are signed - they aren't going anywhere. Al is a bargain at $10M - he isn't going anywhere.
There's not really much else to do except for letting Hauser walk after next year and trading PP.
It's not my money and hopefully it doesn't come to that but DW on the open market is a real problem for BOS.
Wouldn't you just extend Hauser at that point if the new tv contract (and new aprons) kicks in by then, or am I forgetting when it does?
Adding to what TRic said, since salaries are based off the cap, getting all of these extensions done prior to the new TV deals kick in puts them in a kind of "sweet spot." By the end of their contracts, assuming they stay healthy, JB and JT's contracts should be relative bargains. And KP, Jrue's and DW's contract (assuming he signs the extension) will continue to be positive value.
Since it would be after next season, the combination of Al retiring, Hauser walking in free agency, and a Pritchard trade would offset the difference between $31.5M now and $50M then. But I would look to move KP a year early before I’d let money be the reason Derrick White left Boston.
This is my guess at how this gets resolved but who knows. If you frame the decision this way it seems fairly easy.
Keith's number matched the one I computed here 6 weeks ago, in this very thread, but that was as of before all-defense was announced. White's $250k bonus for all defense adds a bit more than $1M to the potential value of his max extension, so Keith's number is outdated and it's probably closer to $32m AAV now.
Ideally, extend White this year and keep everyone together, replacing individual pieces via trade as they age out, attaching draft capital as needed. Try to run the tables on the NBA for as many years as possible and be a dynasty.
If White decides to wait a year and max out, then assuming he puts up another great year next year and we win again, the most likely would be to trade Jrue or KP (whoever looks worse) and use that cap slot plus draft capital to bring in someone younger and/or better and/or more durable (in KP's case).
If White decides to wait a year and max out, then assuming he puts up another great year next year and we win again, the most likely would be to trade Jrue or KP (whoever looks worse) and use that cap slot plus draft capital to bring in someone younger and/or better and/or more durable (in KP's case).
Considering whatever we offer seems like it will still be an underpay, anything that allows us to offer more is good. Incrementally more likely he will be willing to give up the extra $ for all the benefits of security and his current situation.
What else can the Celtics offer? A no-trade clause? Other incentives beyond his max offer? I assume there must be some sweeteners they are discussing.
he reaches the pinnacle of the playoffs, dives for a loose ball, and loses his front chiclets in G5 just when the cameras are at their brightest...so Derrick White
They can't offer anything new in an extension. His current incentives would carry over into a new extension though, at a 40% higher rate.
The only bell/whistle they can offer is a player option on the final season.
That's a decent perk I suppose. White will be on the older side by then, but might still appreciate the flexibility at that point.
I assume Brad will cave on everything he is allowed to in order to get it wrapped up this offseason.
Anything Brad can give White will still be significantly below his market value so it would be crazy not to offer it. White has been pretty vocal about how much he loves Joe, stating that the confidence Joe showed in him made his career.
I tend to worry about things and I'm not worrying about this one.
I tend to worry about things and I'm not worrying about this one.
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Some stories from DW in high school and college while we wait to see what happens with his extension: Stories from Derrick White's Colorado beginnings: "He's the new Chauncey Billups" (denverpost.com)
Is there a deadline beyond which there is no possibility of extension? I don’t think so, but wanted to check.
On the post-Finals podcast, Windhorst said something along the lines of the Celtics' ownership "paying a bit more than they're comfortable with" for the team this year. That was before the extension Tatum will sign this off-season. Keeping White is going to be very expensive under all circumstances.
That said, I assume going deep into the Eastern Conference playoffs year after year helps offset a lot of that tax bill. The worst-case tax scenario is really the Warriors, where the huge contracts are still in place but the team doesn't have the horses to compete anymore; they paid a $177m tax for a team that scraped its way into the play-in and was uncompetitive in that game. The Celtics should not (fingers crossed) be in that situation for many years.
Does anyone know if the cap increases from the new TV deal might be giving us some relief? The cap increases are supposedly going to be "capped" at 10%, I'm assuming the second apron will be the same?
If so that will be an approximately 20 million increase in the second apron threshold each year. if we lock in all our deals now, is there the potential to get under the apron and avoid the repeater tax in a couple years? I haven't seen much speculation on this yet, curious how it will play out.
If so that will be an approximately 20 million increase in the second apron threshold each year. if we lock in all our deals now, is there the potential to get under the apron and avoid the repeater tax in a couple years? I haven't seen much speculation on this yet, curious how it will play out.
The salary cap increase is capped at 10% increases per year to avoid a KD to the Warriors scenario.
I haven’t been able to find how the luxury tax threshold is calculated, but presumably as a fixed percentage of the salary cap. If so, I would have thought it would make some sense to allow the luxury tax to increase by a greater percentage to allow for teams to spend the additional revenue on current players without being penalized. Not sure why the players agreed to keep the additional money in escrow for future players.
I’m coming from a Celtics fan perspective of wanting to keep the current team together as long as possible, but seems like the owners of non-luxury tax teams are able to double-dip on the new revenue plus luxury tax payments while having an excuse for not spending the additional money.
I haven’t been able to find how the luxury tax threshold is calculated, but presumably as a fixed percentage of the salary cap. If so, I would have thought it would make some sense to allow the luxury tax to increase by a greater percentage to allow for teams to spend the additional revenue on current players without being penalized. Not sure why the players agreed to keep the additional money in escrow for future players.
I’m coming from a Celtics fan perspective of wanting to keep the current team together as long as possible, but seems like the owners of non-luxury tax teams are able to double-dip on the new revenue plus luxury tax payments while having an excuse for not spending the additional money.
The cap will increase 10%/year with the new deal, but most contracts the Celtics sign also increase at 8%/year. This means the cap increase isn't hugely helpful, but it definitely makes a difference on the back-end of these contracts. Jaylen/Jayson will be 31-32% at the end, DWhite (assuming he re-signs) and Jrue 19-20%, etc. Assuming a $200M cap, they end up about 10% below what they would have been, so $20M or so in those out years.
Not a huge difference over 5 years but the contract increases are linear, ie. 8% of the first year value. The cap increases are exponential and compound yearly.