Derek Jeter: Countdown to Retirement
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Our hero has come plummeting back to earth bigtime since early May, .589 OPS in 134 PAs since May 5 (not counting tonight).
Also, his LHP/RHP OPS splits for the year are now 1.150/.690, so I'd say that he's once again hurting the team by leading off against RHP, except that he had a big first pitch HR to lead off a game against Verlander last week, so that gets him at least another few weeks in my book (not that it seems Girardi will ever move him down).
Also, his LHP/RHP OPS splits for the year are now 1.150/.690, so I'd say that he's once again hurting the team by leading off against RHP, except that he had a big first pitch HR to lead off a game against Verlander last week, so that gets him at least another few weeks in my book (not that it seems Girardi will ever move him down).
Jeter is back to leading all of MLB in hits with 163, bringing him to 3251 career after tonight. His H/G ratio this year is 1.37, so with 41 games left, even if he sits for 5 of those, that same rate would give him another 49 and leave him at 3300 even at the end of the season, which would make 3500 a possibility with another strong, healthy season in 2013.
He'll never catch the top 3 (Rose-4256, Cobb-4189, Aaron I guess is still possible at 3771), but Musial in 4th at 3630 may now be in reach in 2014, I wouldn't have said that coming into the year.
On the flip side, there seem to be an increasing number of hits up the middle (even to the SS side of 2B) that he doesn't move an inch for. Sometimes it's positioning, but at least an initial move in that direction before deciding he can't get there would be welcome. He looks too often like John Isner is booming aces up the middle at him, not an ideal quality for a SS.
He'll never catch the top 3 (Rose-4256, Cobb-4189, Aaron I guess is still possible at 3771), but Musial in 4th at 3630 may now be in reach in 2014, I wouldn't have said that coming into the year.
On the flip side, there seem to be an increasing number of hits up the middle (even to the SS side of 2B) that he doesn't move an inch for. Sometimes it's positioning, but at least an initial move in that direction before deciding he can't get there would be welcome. He looks too often like John Isner is booming aces up the middle at him, not an ideal quality for a SS.
Jeter having a "career" season, or one of them, according to this NY Post article:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/smash_hit_sBhK1wrn6afjNKH327SCeM
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/smash_hit_sBhK1wrn6afjNKH327SCeM
That's not much of an article, and back in the real world, it should be noted that Jeter's .794 OPS is not only nowhere close to a career year, it's still decidedly below his career average of .830 (he peaked at .989 in 1999).
Of course if by "career year", they mean worst UZR/150 since they've been keeping track (-18.9 currently, just worse than his 2007), then that's very accurate.
Of course if by "career year", they mean worst UZR/150 since they've been keeping track (-18.9 currently, just worse than his 2007), then that's very accurate.
It's probably a bad headline by some overnight copy editor who was transferred over from the news side. However, the reporter does place a premium on hits in his article. One might suggest this is how the NY media handle Jeter. Except for the 2010 season and into contract negotiations, Jeter's assets are usually emphasized and the fielding deficiencies are overlooked.That's not much of an article, and back in the real world, it should be noted that Jeter's .794 OPS is not only nowhere close to a career year, it's still decidedly below his career average of .830 (he peaked at .989 in 1999).
Of course if by "career year", they mean worst UZR/150 since they've been keeping track (-18.9 currently, just worse than his 2007), then that's very accurate.
I watched a game last week where McGehee and Jeter each butchered plays that led to six Toronto runs. None of the game stories mentioned the fielding lapses because each misplay was liberally ruled a hit. It was a high-scoring game and all the story details were about the offense, and the bad pitching. Newspaper still rarely write about defense, which is something that could kill the Yankees in October.
It's easier to write about RISP situations and blame everything on a lack of "clutch" hitting.
If a writer emphasizes Jeter's lack of range, he's going to get shutout by Jeter after games.
Jeter is 19 hits away from passing Willie Mays for 10th all time. He's also the only one in the top 20 of hits all time that has played less than 20 seasons (he's played 17).
He'd have to play full time until he's 42 to have a realistic shot at 4,000 hits. Certainly not beyond the realm of possibility if he's willing to change positions or the Yankees think he can stay at SS.
He'd have to play full time until he's 42 to have a realistic shot at 4,000 hits. Certainly not beyond the realm of possibility if he's willing to change positions or the Yankees think he can stay at SS.
Willie got more ass in his career than Jeter. Roger Kahn told a great anecdote about Mays in one of his books. Willie walks in bar, raises an eyebrow at the best looking woman in the place, leaves, and she follows five minutes later. Nobody knew what happened except Kahn. That was back in the days when newsmen and players drank together. Don't ask, don't tell.
Jeter has accomplished so much that I no longer know a single Sox fan who tries to crap on him or his career. The sheer weight of everything he's done causes idiots to know they sound stupid when they shit on him. When he dies, they should cremate him and sprinkle his ashes on message boards.
I mean, we're arguing about... who got more ass? Did Willie Mays have a quote? Did Willie Mays ask, "What are you hopes?", did he ask, "What are your dreams?". My guess is no. Jeter has done quite okay for himself, regardless of "newsmen and players drinking together".
And not to imply that winning games isn't Jeter's primary goal, but there also seems to be a Pete Rose/Kobe-like determination to pile up counting numbers. These last few weeks are big for him to have much of a shot at 3500/3514 (Speaker in 5th) next year. It seemed inconceivable at the start of the season, but if he can keep up his pace thus far this season per game for a few more weeks, he'd be at 3309 going into 2013. Wagner at 3420 is big too for a SS, of course.
I just realized the Yankees have 3 of the top 5 active MLB leaders in hits:
Jeter (3286)
A-Rod (2886)
Vizquel (2870)
C. Jones (2718)
Ichiro (2578)
Jeter (3286)
A-Rod (2886)
Vizquel (2870)
C. Jones (2718)
Ichiro (2578)
I have always had a deep hatred for Jeter. That said, I'm impressed at what he has done this season. Coming into 3000 last season it seemed like has was washed up. Once he passed 3000 he looks 5 years younger at the plate.
A-Rod and Jeter are also both extremely high on the alltime runs scored list, #10 and 13 respectively at 1889 and 1861. Only seven players have 2000 runs scored, one or both has a good shot to add to that number.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/R_career.shtml
What's even more amazing to me is that he did it as a switch hitter: 3,083 lefty, which by itself would rank 21st all-time and 9th among LHH, and 1,171 righty, which would tie for 979th place ahead of the career totals of John Kruk, Sandy Alomar Sr., Jose Cruz Jr, and injury-shortened Roy Campanella.
Let's not forget that Rose wasn't exactly an asset on the field after 40: 2469 ABs starting in his age 41 season with a .662 OPS playing in the OF and 1B. Why didn't his manager bench him, one might ask? Well, it didn't hurt that he was his own manager the last couple of seasons.
Anyway, take those out and he was still almost at 3700 hits, just saying.
Anyway, take those out and he was still almost at 3700 hits, just saying.
Next winter's going to be an interesting one for the Yankees if Jeter is nearly as productive in 2013 as he's been this year. He's got an $8M player option for 2014 with a $3M buyout. After the way the club played hardball with him during his last contract negotiation, I could see Jeter declining the option and forcing the club's hand (with the obvious leverage of fan pressure and the continued legacy draw) to bring him back on a much more lucrative deal, perhaps even a multi-year package with further options. He'd certainly net a minimum one-year qualifying offer (probably ~$13.5M by then) at the very least along with the buyout, unless Cashman was to work out a fresh deal before free agency.
I know I wasn't alone in thinking Jeter had used the aforementioned leverage to great success two winters ago after what seemed like the start of his decline phase in 2010. Many of us were laughing at how the $51M cost (plus committing to him at a premium defensive position as a 36-yo despite a weakening arm and glacial range) would hamstring the Yankees' flexibility in transitioning to the next era. Well, he's been worth every penny so far (despite his defense, which has continued to erode) and has shut most of us up. I really don't think a 2-year deal for at least $30M, plus a $12M option, is out of the question, even for a guy who turns 39 next summer. Hell, I can see him sitting back in his chair and smirking while confidently demanding the same total package he signed for post-2010. I'm not saying he'd end up being worth either contract, but he'd absolutely have the leverage to dig in his heels and the Yankees wouldn't have much room to avoid capitulation -- far less room than they had 2 years ago.
I also see some parallels to what the Sox will face with Ortiz this winter. Obviously Papi hasn't generated a team- or game-wide legacy anywhere close to Jeter's, but his relative value to his club as a marketing draw and his surprising production at an advanced age after appearing to be done 2-3 years ago are certainly comparable, and that translates into significant bargaining leverage. The biggest differences are their ages (Ortiz is 3 years younger than Jeter will be next winter), their physical health, and the value or their respective positions.
I know I wasn't alone in thinking Jeter had used the aforementioned leverage to great success two winters ago after what seemed like the start of his decline phase in 2010. Many of us were laughing at how the $51M cost (plus committing to him at a premium defensive position as a 36-yo despite a weakening arm and glacial range) would hamstring the Yankees' flexibility in transitioning to the next era. Well, he's been worth every penny so far (despite his defense, which has continued to erode) and has shut most of us up. I really don't think a 2-year deal for at least $30M, plus a $12M option, is out of the question, even for a guy who turns 39 next summer. Hell, I can see him sitting back in his chair and smirking while confidently demanding the same total package he signed for post-2010. I'm not saying he'd end up being worth either contract, but he'd absolutely have the leverage to dig in his heels and the Yankees wouldn't have much room to avoid capitulation -- far less room than they had 2 years ago.
I also see some parallels to what the Sox will face with Ortiz this winter. Obviously Papi hasn't generated a team- or game-wide legacy anywhere close to Jeter's, but his relative value to his club as a marketing draw and his surprising production at an advanced age after appearing to be done 2-3 years ago are certainly comparable, and that translates into significant bargaining leverage. The biggest differences are their ages (Ortiz is 3 years younger than Jeter will be next winter), their physical health, and the value or their respective positions.
And their overall cap situation, NY is still allegedly trying to get under $189M for 2014 (although they may have given up hope on that by then) and BOS now has tons of free money after the Punto trade (whoever coined this term on the main board, kudos).
To be fair, from age 39 on Rose only broke .700 OPS twice (and .706 once) and was a mediocre baserunner while fielding first base poorly; he wasn't much of a position player by then (if you put any stock in it, he was below replacement at -0.3 rWAR/year from age 39 on).It just makes me appreciate Pete Rose that much more. How anybody can be a position player in their 40's is well beyond me. If Jeter can do it, he should be bronzed the day he gets the final record breaking hit. Heck, I say do it now
His age 38 season was in the same realm as what Jeter's doing this year, though, probably a little better.
The player option for 2014 is starting to look really good as of last night. Looking forward to seeing some dead money on the NYY payroll in the next couple of years.
NY dodges a small bullet with Jeter's 7th place finish in the MVP voting today. His contract from Cot's:
"14:$8M player option ($3M buyout)
2014 option may increase to $17M based on awards earned in 2011-13: $4M for AL MVP; $2M for 2nd-6th in MVP vote; $1.5M for Silver Slugger; $0.5M each for Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, WS MVP"
He did not win a Silver Slugger in 2011, he did win it this year, so the 2014 player option is currently at $9.5M which would have been $11.5M if he'd finished one place higher today.
"14:$8M player option ($3M buyout)
2014 option may increase to $17M based on awards earned in 2011-13: $4M for AL MVP; $2M for 2nd-6th in MVP vote; $1.5M for Silver Slugger; $0.5M each for Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, WS MVP"
He did not win a Silver Slugger in 2011, he did win it this year, so the 2014 player option is currently at $9.5M which would have been $11.5M if he'd finished one place higher today.
Harold Reynolds got Jeter to pose with him for a photo on Monday, just to refute NY Post photos. In this LoHud link, Jeter vows to be ready for Opening Day:
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/
The next best thing to having Jeter back is having Jeter's Diary back. The Youkilis description killed me.
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN3m
Derek Jeter made an unscheduled trip to Charlotte to see his ankle surgeon Thursday. Doesn't sound like good news. More to come..
Not good news.....
Derek Jeter made an unscheduled trip to Charlotte to see his ankle surgeon Thursday. Doesn't sound like good news. More to come..
Not good news.....
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale16s
Derek Jeter now out until after the All-Star break, #Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells reporters.
Derek Jeter now out until after the All-Star break, #Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells reporters.
Not that it even fucking matters; the Yankees could plug Billy Martin's corpse in at shortstop and still get a .750 OPS out of the position somehow.
Does this mean that after he doesn't exercise his player option NY can low ball him with a 3/48 offer instead of renewing his 3/51 deal?
TheYellowDart5 said:
Like this season when Eduardo Nunez is posting a .603 OPS and Nix an OPS of .558?
mt8thsw9th said:
He's probably referring to Hafner, Wells, Boesch and Youk having OPS's of 1.142, .971, .947 and .931. Their "replacement" players have been performing pretty damn well in lieu of their superstar counterparts.
None of them are the shortstop, which is what I'm assuming was meant by "shortstop".flymrfreakjar said:
mt8thsw9th said:
At this point, shouldn't the thread title be "Countdown to 3305 Hits"?
edit: for the record, I was kidding.
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