Could any of the yankee fans answer this question even somewhat speculatively, has the great success of the team since Jeter went on the DL eroded the idea that he's a necessary component of the team among the fan base and ny media to any degree?
Derek Jeter: Countdown to Retirement
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Some. Not much. I think the more he plays, the worse it's going to be for him. It's getting harder to spin his performance.
The thing in his favor is how unreliable Nunez has been on D, the only place Jeter still has him beat. My ideal scenario would probably be something like this:
Captain Milestone/Millstone comes back on Monday and gets his six hits in four games, the sixth in the bottom of the 13th in the series opener against TB, down 4-1 with the bases loaded and two outs on a 400 foot shot to dead center that Upton inexplicably breaks in on, Jeter doing a back flip from 10 feet out to entirely vault Jaso and touch home for the winning run and the 3000th hit. Of course in doing so, he reinjures his hamstring and goes out for another few weeks so we can get Nunez back out there.
Captain Milestone/Millstone comes back on Monday and gets his six hits in four games, the sixth in the bottom of the 13th in the series opener against TB, down 4-1 with the bases loaded and two outs on a 400 foot shot to dead center that Upton inexplicably breaks in on, Jeter doing a back flip from 10 feet out to entirely vault Jaso and touch home for the winning run and the 3000th hit. Of course in doing so, he reinjures his hamstring and goes out for another few weeks so we can get Nunez back out there.
Jeter could give himself such a career reputation boost right now by privately and publicly telling Girardi: "Bat me 9th and let me see if I can hit my way back up to the top." That is what a Captain should do, especially one who's being paid about $10M per year more than his baseball skills deserve, what's left of them.
Anyway, the guy has a .591 OPS against RHP and is likely going to come back to a red hot team and not only lead off against a RHP but also probably DH (!!!). It's hard to ignore that forever, I think the question is when NY inevitably cools down, how much of it will be tied to Captain Counting Stats.
Anyway, the guy has a .591 OPS against RHP and is likely going to come back to a red hot team and not only lead off against a RHP but also probably DH (!!!). It's hard to ignore that forever, I think the question is when NY inevitably cools down, how much of it will be tied to Captain Counting Stats.
And now he's in the all star game as perhaps the least deserving representative. I can't wait for even the hesitant, undersold acknowledgement by whoever's announcing of Jeter's "injured and subpar year" or something like that. If he had any shame he'd beg off as an injury concern, what with completely not deserving to be there and all.
Does this finally put a dent in his reputation as a team first guy? The mantra for years has been about Jeter never putting himself ahead of the team and only caring about winning. Does his insistence on playing short and leading off in the face of clear evidence that his skills have diminished finally lead to some criticism about his selfishness? It's going to be fascinating to watch.
The playing short part is fine (god knows it's better than him DHing), and even leading off against LHP is arguably tolerable. The part that has been ridiculous for close to a full season now is him leading off against RHP, and while that's largely on Girardi, it's somewhat on Jeter too.
Well, I was right about first game back on the 4th, but he went 0-4. Needs to pick up a couple hits before getting back to the Stade to ensure he reaches 3,000 on this last home stand before the ASB. Let's see if he is pressing today and hacking early in the count....
He did have two ground ball singles in Trenton, so I'm not convinced he's not in mid season form despite the time off.
Watching Nunez in the field brought back memories of Cesar Crespo in the field for the Red Sox. Nunez might be 'up and down' offensively with a great future ahead, but defensively he is awful. He makes Jeter look like an excellent shortstop by comparison.
How many times did you see him? You may be right in the end, but his range is better than Jeter's and his arm is certainly stronger. He's made quite a few mistakes in his limited time there so far, but that's not something he did in the minors, so it remains to be seen how more playing time will affect his consistency and ability to make plays.
I watch the Yankees regularly, and have seen most of his starts since Jeter hit the DL. Maybe it's just a matter of him getting situated playing regularly. He definitely has a strong arm, but accuracy across the diamond leaves a lot to be desired. I'm curious if his plethora of errors in the minors are predominantly throwing errors.
Yeah, after some more research on his minor league days, it does seem like he's had his share of throwing issues before, as well as up and down concentration levels (much like Cano, I guess), although it seemed like he had gotten past it in AAA in 2010.
I don't think that poor concentration is necessarily something that sticks with someone forever, but I am also OK with Jeter starting over him most of the time for now (and all the time until he gets his damn 3000th hit).
I don't think that poor concentration is necessarily something that sticks with someone forever, but I am also OK with Jeter starting over him most of the time for now (and all the time until he gets his damn 3000th hit).
But I'm mostly playing devil's advocate, your assessment is pretty fair based on what we've seen Nunez do in the bigs so far. I'm just not sure he doesn't have the potential to become at least adequate defensively, though, and his offensive game is exciting for a SS.
The end may be near, but in the meantime, Captain Intangibles is being credited with possibly reinventing the game of baseball.
Jeter's Swing - Unconventional But Effective
Jeter's Swing - Unconventional But Effective
I am one of the few Red Sox fans who actually can stand Michael Kay, but listening to him these past couple of days has been brutal. If only the Yankees can keep men off base so the rally killer can hit 3000 sooner rather than later and END this misery.
Yankees 36-30 with Jeter starting, 15-5 when he does not.
Yankees 36-30 with Jeter starting, 15-5 when he does not.
I'm curious how much of this is actually causation and how much is simply correlation. Obviously, some of it is small sample size noise, but think about what Jeter does to that line up, especially being at the top of it. When he's leading off, he's weakening it about as much as he can and that very likely costs them runs on a regular basis. Is he the difference between a .750 winning percentage and a .545? Obviously not. But is it possible that starting Jeter as much as they have (and likely will going forward) could cost them the division?
Bingo. Texas is also the team that got SMOKED at home by the METS - who scored 10+ runs per game almost every game on that 6 game trip in Texas/Detroit so I wouldn't read too much into the comparisons. Granted, the impact of losing Jeter is not what it would have been in 2004 I still cannot see them getting much out of Nunez for an entire season that would make a major difference in their win/loss record.
Well, using the numbers Toe Nash provided, you're talking about the difference between a 121 win team and a 97 win team based on run differential (pythag records). Obviously he's not a -24 win player, but I don't think you can argue that he won't have an impact on the win loss record at all. My question is how much will he impact it?
I haven't watched Nunez at all, so other than the reports of him having stone hands, I don't know much about his defense. Does he have better range than Jeter? Worse? About the same? If his range is better, then Jeter being better at making the routine plays loses it's advantage a little and it seems like Nunez is a better bet at the plate. Granted, short stop is a premium defensive position and will see more opportunities than most of the other positions, but in the long haul, how much does any defensive advantage Jeter might have really add up when compared to the half a season's at bats that are left? Or the 80% or so of the season that Jeter will end up playing when all is said and done?
I think there's a very real chance that playing Jeter every day, especially as the lead off hitter, could cost the Yankees the division.
I haven't watched Nunez at all, so other than the reports of him having stone hands, I don't know much about his defense. Does he have better range than Jeter? Worse? About the same? If his range is better, then Jeter being better at making the routine plays loses it's advantage a little and it seems like Nunez is a better bet at the plate. Granted, short stop is a premium defensive position and will see more opportunities than most of the other positions, but in the long haul, how much does any defensive advantage Jeter might have really add up when compared to the half a season's at bats that are left? Or the 80% or so of the season that Jeter will end up playing when all is said and done?
I think there's a very real chance that playing Jeter every day, especially as the lead off hitter, could cost the Yankees the division.
[quote name='Snodgrass'Muff' timestamp='1310138508' post='3625100']
But is it possible that starting Jeter as much as they have (and likely will going forward) could cost them the division?
[/quote]
It's most certainly possible, but a lot of that hypothetical hinges on how good Eduardo Nunez is, which is pretty hard to say at this point. It did seem like he was just starting to get into a hitting groove last weekend, but we'll never really know (at least until he gets another chance).
Edit: crosspost with Snod making the same point in more detail.
But is it possible that starting Jeter as much as they have (and likely will going forward) could cost them the division?
[/quote]
It's most certainly possible, but a lot of that hypothetical hinges on how good Eduardo Nunez is, which is pretty hard to say at this point. It did seem like he was just starting to get into a hitting groove last weekend, but we'll never really know (at least until he gets another chance).
Edit: crosspost with Snod making the same point in more detail.
Another way to look at this is that Jeter has been worth 0.5 fWAR so far this season. Nunez's sample is too small and will obviously be impacted by the large amount of errors Nunez has had during his call up, so we don't have much information there to work with. But looking at the offensive component, which again will be a SSS in Nunez's case, Jeter has been worth 82 wRC+ while Nunez was worth 108 in his time in the majors. Said differently, in 280 PAs, Jeter has amassed 29.6 wRC while in 126 PAs, Nunez has managed 15.7.
wRC is based on Bill James' Runs Created and is sort of like VORP. wRC+ is a league adjusted rate stat sort of like OPS+. Either way, Nunez has been more valuable as a hitter. How much of that could we reasonably have expected to continue? I'm not sure. His 2010 wOBA is right in line with his 2011 major league wOBA and his 52 PAs in the majors last year. The problem is that wOBA isn't park adjusted, so I doubt it's adjusted for league or the difference between the minors and majors like MLEs are.
Stat Corner has an adjusted version of wOBA (several of them, actually) which might be more telling. Their version that they adjust for ball park and batted ball rates (wOBAr) has his 2010 minors number at .319 and his major league 2011 at .352. Far from a perfect way to predict his production going forward, but that certainly looks like a player who played over his head in a small sample size. Even still, Jeter's wOBAr is .309 and doesn't appear as though it's going to get much better.
wRC is based on Bill James' Runs Created and is sort of like VORP. wRC+ is a league adjusted rate stat sort of like OPS+. Either way, Nunez has been more valuable as a hitter. How much of that could we reasonably have expected to continue? I'm not sure. His 2010 wOBA is right in line with his 2011 major league wOBA and his 52 PAs in the majors last year. The problem is that wOBA isn't park adjusted, so I doubt it's adjusted for league or the difference between the minors and majors like MLEs are.
Stat Corner has an adjusted version of wOBA (several of them, actually) which might be more telling. Their version that they adjust for ball park and batted ball rates (wOBAr) has his 2010 minors number at .319 and his major league 2011 at .352. Far from a perfect way to predict his production going forward, but that certainly looks like a player who played over his head in a small sample size. Even still, Jeter's wOBAr is .309 and doesn't appear as though it's going to get much better.
My sick mind suggests these scenarios for Jeter's 3,000th hit:
Option 1--Mishandled, routine infield grounder in the 9th inning of Sunday's game that is ruled a hit and every non-Yankee howls with laughter about the bad decision by the official scorer. The official scorer explains that it was a "bad bounce" but he is the only one who saw it.
Option 2--Slow hit ball to the infield and the throw clearly beats Jeter to first base, but the umpire rules Jeter safe. Replays are undisputable that the throw arrived before Jeter.
Option 3--Close call between a hit or an error in three bouncer to the infield. Initially ruled an error. Later in the game the ruling is changed to a hit (probably the right call). The visiting team is batting at the time the official scorer changes the ruling.
Option 4--Popup to the infield. Confusion results in ball dropping between two infielders who are running away from the ball at the last moment, mistakenly thinking that the other called for the catch. Turns out it was A-Rod who yelled, "I got it!" as he stood on steps of the dugout.
Option 1--Mishandled, routine infield grounder in the 9th inning of Sunday's game that is ruled a hit and every non-Yankee howls with laughter about the bad decision by the official scorer. The official scorer explains that it was a "bad bounce" but he is the only one who saw it.
Option 2--Slow hit ball to the infield and the throw clearly beats Jeter to first base, but the umpire rules Jeter safe. Replays are undisputable that the throw arrived before Jeter.
Option 3--Close call between a hit or an error in three bouncer to the infield. Initially ruled an error. Later in the game the ruling is changed to a hit (probably the right call). The visiting team is batting at the time the official scorer changes the ruling.
Option 4--Popup to the infield. Confusion results in ball dropping between two infielders who are running away from the ball at the last moment, mistakenly thinking that the other called for the catch. Turns out it was A-Rod who yelled, "I got it!" as he stood on steps of the dugout.
If you buy into Colin Wyers' assertions of range bias by the stringers who record the BIS data then there's really no way that Nuñez could be worse on defense than Jeter. And I really haven't ever seen an adequate explanation or even a reasonable theory for why Jeter makes so many fewer plays a year than other shortstops. The pitchers he's played behind have average ground ball rates and yet year after year Jeter makes far fewer plays than any shortstop in baseball. I think it's entirely plausible that Jeter is around 15 runs per year worse than an average shortstop on defense, if not even worse.
Some of the better articles on analyzing Jeter's defense without the BIS data are this one by Colin Wyers and this one by Tango in the 2008 THT annual. Both of those articles are really quite interesting and I think that both are well worth taking the time to read.
Any and all of those would be awesome. In your 3rd scenario they would have to stop the game mid-inning to recognize Jeter's "hit".
Game rained out tonight, and they could not agree to a double header tomorrow, so its being played on Sept. 22nd, an off day for both teams. So a mere 8 or 9 home at bats remain for the Captain to notch 3,000. Given his batting average, it's going to come down to Sunday probably....
Option 5--9th inning of Sunday's game...Jeter is safe on a "misplayed" grounder to the third baseman. It is ruled an error by the official scorer. The day after the All-Star game, a YES Network technician discovers that tape from one of the 438 cameras at the game showed the last hop from an angle that reveals that the ball hit a rock and it was impossible for the third baseman to field the ball cleanly. The official scorer changes the ruling to a hit on a day off for the Yankees.
Option 6--A routine popup to the infield. Ninth inning on Sunday. A pigeon swoops across the field and flies into the ball. The pigeon lands in the fielder's glove and the ball drops to the ground. The fielder mistakes the pigeon for the ball and throws to first...wildly...striking Jeter in the side of the head with the dying pigeon...Jeter is safe but stumbles off the first base bag toward second base. The second baseman picks up the ball and tags Jeter for the third out in a Yankee loss. Jeter gets his 3,000th hit. Yankees Lose....theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees LOSE!
Option 6--A routine popup to the infield. Ninth inning on Sunday. A pigeon swoops across the field and flies into the ball. The pigeon lands in the fielder's glove and the ball drops to the ground. The fielder mistakes the pigeon for the ball and throws to first...wildly...striking Jeter in the side of the head with the dying pigeon...Jeter is safe but stumbles off the first base bag toward second base. The second baseman picks up the ball and tags Jeter for the third out in a Yankee loss. Jeter gets his 3,000th hit. Yankees Lose....theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees LOSE!
Does the opposing team get to participate in the discussion of the on-field celebration? I was thinking, if whoever is pitching for TB has to sit around for 15 minutes waiting to pitch to Granderson, do they have a beef?
Of course, this probably won't be an issue because I can't imagine the Yankees would overdo any Jeter-related celebration.
Of course, this probably won't be an issue because I can't imagine the Yankees would overdo any Jeter-related celebration.
If the Lou Gehrig milestone was any indication the Rays will just suck it up. I doubt they bring a microphone out for him or anything like that.. team will come out hug him long cheers game back on. Then before the tomorrows game (or their next home game) the team will honor him in a real ceremony... that's my guess anyway.
Home run off a slider.
Reasonably restrained response afterward.
Good for him. Now descend to retirement.
Reasonably restrained response afterward.
Good for him. Now descend to retirement.
Kudos to Jeter. He plays for the most insufferable team in professional sports, but Jeter's always been a classy player. He deserved to have the moment happen like that.
I concur 100%. Given how insufferable the Yankees are and the heights(depths) of the Jeter adoration, it's amazing how little bile I have for CI. He's carried off his with near-perfect comportment. Now go home!
I don't know if I'm going to be able to stomach the additional veneer of his having done this as a 'clean' player. I'm not confident enough, for example, to claim that Tom Brady has been 'clean'.
He hasn't been implicated in any report/book/testimony, and he seems to have a sense of honor that most players lack, but it's hard for me to get past his 1999 season. It's such a ridiculous outlier that coincided with a league-wide boom in offensive numbers - and likely PED use - that I don't think anyone can feel too confident that he stood strong for that period. I know it seems like I'm implicitly challenging his defenders to prove a negative, but my only point is: I see the entire era as tainted, with no one able to escape that fact.
I suppose the idea that this era was 'tainted' more than many others is ridiculous, but that is besides the point, which is that anyone working to put Jeter on a pedestal is inflating a dubious mythology of Derek Jeter the player and doing so needlessly. His accomplishments stand on their own without the bonus points some media members and fans are reaching for.
He hasn't been implicated in any report/book/testimony, and he seems to have a sense of honor that most players lack, but it's hard for me to get past his 1999 season. It's such a ridiculous outlier that coincided with a league-wide boom in offensive numbers - and likely PED use - that I don't think anyone can feel too confident that he stood strong for that period. I know it seems like I'm implicitly challenging his defenders to prove a negative, but my only point is: I see the entire era as tainted, with no one able to escape that fact.
I suppose the idea that this era was 'tainted' more than many others is ridiculous, but that is besides the point, which is that anyone working to put Jeter on a pedestal is inflating a dubious mythology of Derek Jeter the player and doing so needlessly. His accomplishments stand on their own without the bonus points some media members and fans are reaching for.
And he has banged a pretty impressive list of girls without having to put a ring on any of them. If not for the herpes, he could be considered one of the greatest of all time.
Pretty damn lame of the Rays to lose the game solely because of that corpse.
Ah well, if he gets to bat leadoff the rest of the season now then it still redounds to our advantage.
Ah well, if he gets to bat leadoff the rest of the season now then it still redounds to our advantage.
Fuck him. I move we take this as an opportunity to move from "Capt Intangibles" into the "Capt Compiler" era.
I yelled out 'don't swing at ball four, asshole' in the right field bleachers right before he hit the home run, and not only wasn't I shanked, people actually seemed to enjoy it. Fun day.
Seriously? Butch Wynegar. Melido Perez. Those are non-irritating Yankees Hell, even Mattingly was less irritating than Jeter. Resist Jeter apotheosis at all costs We will be listening to this nauseating deification until he goes to the HOF, and even then we'll have to listen to crap about whether he will be the first unanimous vote. I can't wait till he's gone, I've been sick of his shit since 1996.
But, congratulations. A heck of a ballplayer, all things considered. It doesn't mean I have to like it, or make simpering happy noises in his direction.
He's allegedly been a bit of a diva at times behind the scenes, and his frienemy relationship with A-Rod is high school clique-level immature; but aside from those things, the vast majority of people's distaste for Jeter is generated from actions and words by people who are not Jeter. He's not Joe D.
Distaste for Jeter has a lot to do with what he represents. I understand that. It doesn't make my visceral reaction to him, Yankee iconography, or his stupid face any less real or meaningful. Fandom, what makes sports allegiances important and emotionally powerful, is built on representations, not real people. "Jeter" sucks.
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