Derek Jeter: Countdown to Retirement
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He might have had to. NY was coming off another World Series win, Jeter was third in the AL MVP voting (and actually deserved to be that high), and the media couldn't stop drooling over the Core Four. Go back and scan last year's 'What Does Jeter Get?' thread (http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/58562-what-does-jeter-get/), there were guesses of 5/120 and that was even after a half season of obvious decline.
My hate of CI aside...he poked it pretty well. Thats a line drive XBH in any park.
It seems Derek's hopes and dreams for 2011 finally came true.
It's also my hope and dream to avoid hearing Sterling make the call of any successful AB by El Capitano.
It's also my hope and dream to avoid hearing Sterling make the call of any successful AB by El Capitano.
Those were gone in most parks and even without the wind they were at least xbh. Now if you want to say it was the pitching he was facing, well then...
Jeter still sells newspapers. If I'm the Mets, the double-cover bothers me, but I guess the Post editors thought it was a slow day for news on Page 1.
It's funny. Our various threads operate on the same premise that newspaper editors do. Wingack started a thread on Granderson at the beginning of 2010 and it has 109 hits so far. JA started one on Jeter five days ago and it has 58 hits so far. Grandy is more valuable player but Jeter is not fading away quietly. Everybody wants a piece of Jeter on the way down.
It's funny. Our various threads operate on the same premise that newspaper editors do. Wingack started a thread on Granderson at the beginning of 2010 and it has 109 hits so far. JA started one on Jeter five days ago and it has 58 hits so far. Grandy is more valuable player but Jeter is not fading away quietly. Everybody wants a piece of Jeter on the way down.
A large market team with 0 prime homegrown starting pitchers who can stay healthy (in the last 25 years) 0 no hitters, a new ballpark and tv network and they are still bankrupt - that's amazin! Oh, and did you hear about Fred's weekend(s) at Bernie's?
As for Jeter, he reminds me of what David Wright went through a few weeks ago. He was 0 for his last 22 and the fans were killing him. Then the Diamondback 'pitchers' came to Citi Field. Magically he was hitting again. For power, too. Sadly, the clock struck midnight once the 'pitchers' went back to Arizona. One thing I've learned is that slumping hitters will hit a homer vs awful pitching faster than they start to hit singles/doubles with authority - consistently. You don't want to look for the homer games - even Melky Cabrera had them. You want to look for the sharp opposite field shots (hit or out, it won't matter) and you want to see consistency. For instance, I can assure you that you can find a hitter is breaking out, even if the ball doesn't fall for hits, just by the contact he makes and his mechanics.
Please note, this is not to troll or to attack Derek. It is simply an observation about all slumping hitters I've noticed as they slump. Jason Bay is another extreme example this year.
The signs of life weren't just yesterday, he pulled a ball off the wall in LF for a double the game before, and his LD% in May (33 PAs) is 26.3% and his OPS is .975.
I'm certainly not saying he'll keep it up, but any signs of life are welcome, since he's not going anywhere.
This quote got me thinking about the Yankees. Add 1 to the above total to get the NYY total for essentially the same time-frame. Which i find amazing given their abundance of homegrown positional players over the same period.
It also may make me think twice about the potential of the Killer B's
Hmmm, Agreed in principal on the number (desperately want to add Hughes to Andy to make 2 but I know I can not, or at least not yet). However I am not sure I agree on the Killer B's in that we have not had a lot of hyped minor league starters other than Phil in that period. We did have the Hughes Kennedy and Joba thing, which failed, but Kennedy did not, or at least I do not recall him, getting all sorts of pub as he moved up in the minors. Joba is a story we all know. Hughes is the only "highly touted guys in the bunch; we have read about him since he joined the organization. He did win 18 games last year and the verdict is still out as to weather he can be a legitimate major league 2 or 3. So, as far as that goes I am still hopeful that the killer B's can generate at least 2 quality major leagues with the outside hope of one of them being an ace or just below.
I certainly think Hughes has shown the stuff to be a successful major league pitcher. At this point, however, he's really beginning to earn the dreaded "oft-injured" prefix. Maybe my views were tainted by yankee fans bluster re: prospects but I remember everyone from Clippard to Karstens to Chase Wright (poor bastard) being touted fairly highly. None to the level of Joba & Hughes, though.
Well, Kennedy was only in the minors for 25 starts before making the bigs and being compared to Mussina.
Ian Kennedy's shaping up as Yanks' mini-Mussina
Kennedy has turned out to be pretty solid. I don't think he could do what he is doing in the AL East but he might have found a nice spot for a career. I just hope that Banuelos and Betances never see the bullpen in defined roles. Brackman is destined for the bullpen so I don't really care about him. But I really hope I don't see Banuelos or Betances in those 7th or 8th inning roles like Hughes and Joba. I have no problem with using them out of the bullpen to get experience but it better be in long relief, low leverage or a spot start here and there.
Do the fans create the hype or are they just parroting what the media are writing? The Moose camparison to Kennedy was easy because they both had the same distinct windup mechanism with their hands. They were both smart college guys. But once we actually saw Kennedy's stuff, you knew he was no Moose. People forget how hard Moose threw in the 1990s with Baltimore. He was filthy.
Kennedy never made any hitter uncomfortable at the plate, at least not against a tough lineup and not with the Yankees. He created his own hype by shutting out Toronto for seven or eight innings in September of 2007 but the Blue Jays were a swing-happy team playing out the season who had never seen the kid before.
Never trust April or September big league results from new players.
Jeter is just lucky people are still fooled by empty batting averages. Posada may be hitting only .165, but even so he's very nearly as productive offensively as Jeter:
wOBA
Posada: .279
Jeter: .284
wRC+
Posada: 71
Jeter: 75
WPA
Posada: -0.17
Jeter: -0.59
"Clutch"
Posada: 0.34
Jeter: -0.07
Considering the timeliness of production, Posada -- with his .165 batting average -- may still be more productive offensively than Jeter. And no matter how you slice it, he's not really much worse at all. Derek Jeter: maybe a smidge better than the 40 year old ex-catcher hitting .165!
Jeter is increasingly a millstone at the top of the Yankee lineup. Posada is kicked to 9th and now benched basically, while Jeter just cruises along at the lead-off slot. If I were a Yankee fan I'd be going nuts. Why are Jeter's hits or his feelings more important than team wins?
wOBA
Posada: .279
Jeter: .284
wRC+
Posada: 71
Jeter: 75
WPA
Posada: -0.17
Jeter: -0.59
"Clutch"
Posada: 0.34
Jeter: -0.07
Considering the timeliness of production, Posada -- with his .165 batting average -- may still be more productive offensively than Jeter. And no matter how you slice it, he's not really much worse at all. Derek Jeter: maybe a smidge better than the 40 year old ex-catcher hitting .165!
Jeter is increasingly a millstone at the top of the Yankee lineup. Posada is kicked to 9th and now benched basically, while Jeter just cruises along at the lead-off slot. If I were a Yankee fan I'd be going nuts. Why are Jeter's hits or his feelings more important than team wins?
Full season numbers confuse things a bit, Posada hasn't hit a HR since April 23 and has a .478 OPS in 62 PAs since. Jeter on the other hand got off to an abysmal start, but has been adequate since, with a .747 OPS in his last 90 PAs.
Jeter should still be hitting near the bottom of the order against RHP, but NY has so many issues in the lineup right now that this isn't one of the bigger problems, right now anyway.
Jeter should still be hitting near the bottom of the order against RHP, but NY has so many issues in the lineup right now that this isn't one of the bigger problems, right now anyway.
Well, I guess if you think those random short-term samples are more indicative than full season samples, you could do that. I don't personally think that Posada is really a .478 OPS hitter, or that Jeter is really a .747 OPS hitter.
I will bet you $25 to the Jimmy Fund that Posada will hit better than .478 OPS AND Jeter will be less than .747 OPS from here to the end of the season.
I will bet you $25 to the Jimmy Fund that Posada will hit better than .478 OPS AND Jeter will be less than .747 OPS from here to the end of the season.
What's Jeter's OPS in his last 90 PA excluding the 2 HR game? We could do this all day.
Let's break down those 90 PA:
49 PA Apr. 23-May 4: .665 OPS
16 PA May 6-May 8 (@TEX where all the HE'S BACK tabloid headlines appeared): 1.433 OPS
30 PA May 10-15: .457 OPS
49 PA Apr. 23-May 4: .665 OPS
16 PA May 6-May 8 (@TEX where all the HE'S BACK tabloid headlines appeared): 1.433 OPS
30 PA May 10-15: .457 OPS
Jeter's batted-ball data (Fangraphs) this season is remarkably similar to 2010. Therefore, his 2010 line (270/340/370) is probably the best estimate of Jeter's rest-of-season performance. That would make him a slightly below-average shortstop offensively. Coupled with roughly league-average defense, that makes Jeter overpaid. It doesn't make him an albatross.
You guys are trying to convince me that Jeter is a shitty hitter? Have you not read my posts here since last summer?
Besides pure performance over the last three weeks, Jeter is on a multiyear deal and has been pretty solid in the field. His possible replacement (Nunez) is far from reliable defensively, so no one is calling for Jeter to sit anymore.
Posada, on the other hand, is a DH-only at this point and certainly in his last year for NY, so it's an easy move to make to try to get things going, especially since chances are pretty good that Montero would be an improvement over him right now.
But yeah, everyone not named Granderson sucks right now, so moving Jeter down has become a minor issue.
Besides pure performance over the last three weeks, Jeter is on a multiyear deal and has been pretty solid in the field. His possible replacement (Nunez) is far from reliable defensively, so no one is calling for Jeter to sit anymore.
Posada, on the other hand, is a DH-only at this point and certainly in his last year for NY, so it's an easy move to make to try to get things going, especially since chances are pretty good that Montero would be an improvement over him right now.
But yeah, everyone not named Granderson sucks right now, so moving Jeter down has become a minor issue.
I slightly disagree. His plate discipline is virtually the same as last year but his batted ball numbers are a bit different. Less line drives, more groundballs, and more infield fly balls which back up the idea that he has lost a shit ton of batspeed. Next to go is footspeed and mobility.
The only reason his WAR isn't in the negatives yet is because of his 1.6 fielding value. The Yankees are going to have a real problem on their hands soon enough.
The only reason his WAR isn't in the negatives yet is because of his 1.6 fielding value. The Yankees are going to have a real problem on their hands soon enough.
He has 2 pop flies this season, compared to 2 pop-ups all last season. I didn't think that was a significant difference.
The difference in line drives is more significant, but I'd be surprised if it stays that way. His 2010 LD rate (16.1%) was well within the bottom quartile, and his 2011 rate (12.9%) is worse than all but one qualifier posted in 2010. Also, LD rate tends to regress toward the mean to a greater extent than other batted-ball stats. I'm not saying Jeter will bounce back to league average; I'm just saying he'll bounce back to his quite modest 2010 LD rate. Expecting less than that seems like wishful thinking to me.
A bit of recent observation, as the slow crawl towards 3000 continues:
Jeter now has a very impressive .942 OPS when batting in the first inning, with a remarkable .463 OBP. Unfortunately, for the remainder of the game he has a .579 OPS, with a .292 OBP.
Also, not sure what it means, but Jeter has not struck out in his last 52 PAs, which is the longest streak of his career.
He was pretty brutal on D this weekend, costing CC one and maybe two runs Saturday, but I guess that's not really news.
Jeter now has a very impressive .942 OPS when batting in the first inning, with a remarkable .463 OBP. Unfortunately, for the remainder of the game he has a .579 OPS, with a .292 OBP.
Also, not sure what it means, but Jeter has not struck out in his last 52 PAs, which is the longest streak of his career.
He was pretty brutal on D this weekend, costing CC one and maybe two runs Saturday, but I guess that's not really news.
Morgan Ensberg just dissed Jeter on live TV. He's doing color work for the NCAA Baseball regionals, calling tonight's Stanford-Illinois game.
Somehow the conversation with the PBP guy drifted to batters who flinch and feign injury when they're jammed by a pitcher on the handle of the bat. Ensberg is asked if he ever pulled anything like that. "Naww, that's bush league. Just play the game the right way. There's no need for that."
PBP guy asks the obvious follow-up. "Soooo... What about Derek Jeter when he claimed he was hit on the hands, though the replay showed the ball never touched him?"
Ensberg: "That was bush."
Somehow the conversation with the PBP guy drifted to batters who flinch and feign injury when they're jammed by a pitcher on the handle of the bat. Ensberg is asked if he ever pulled anything like that. "Naww, that's bush league. Just play the game the right way. There's no need for that."
PBP guy asks the obvious follow-up. "Soooo... What about Derek Jeter when he claimed he was hit on the hands, though the replay showed the ball never touched him?"
Ensberg: "That was bush."
Good to know Morgan Ensberg has found a job that suits his talents. I only knew him as the guy who got beat up and held hostage in a motel room. Now he's a college baseball analyst. Good for him.
Nah. I just think it's funny that a guy like Ensberg would go out of his way to trash Jeter. I thought there was some kind of professional code there. Or perhaps Ensberg felt he didn't get a fair chance with the Yankees in 2008 when he compiled a .506 OPS in 74 ABs. That's probably closer to the truth. It's tough for any player when the end is near, whether it's Jeter or Ensberg.
By the way, I think the Yankees can win it all with Jeter at shortstop this year. I know all the stats are against it but I don't see any team out there without flaws, often at shortstop. I'll take my chances with Jeter in a pennant race one more time. Not so sure he'll have anything left for 2012.
He didn't go out of his way, he was asked a question and gave a three word answer. What should he have said?
"He's a natural. Young. Handsome. He can play his ass off, playing shortstop for the Yankees. What more do you want? The fact that he's here in the greatest sports town-greatest city in the world-makes it that much better."
He could have said "Derek Jeter is not the first guy to do that."
Shane Victorino just leaned into a slow curveball in the first inning tonight against the Dodgers. Mattingly argued, to no avail, that the batter moved into the ball.
He's not a Yankee fan, so he has no real need to knee-jerk defend Jeter as you do. I think you're making a lot more out of this than is really there. It was bush league, and all he said was.. it was bush league. I don't really think you need to cite other examples when filling dead air in a college baseball game.
And why would Ensberg wildly predict that Victorino would do something tonight that is vaguely similar, but not what was referenced in the game earlier today? Did Victorino not get hit and then pretend he did?
I won't defend Jeter's actions that day. It may have been an analomy but it happened and he has to carry that with him the rest of his life. But I also believe that hitters will lean into slow pitches to get on base from time to time.
I stopped defending Jeter a few years ago, for reasons too complex for even me to understand. A lot of it had to do with the A-Rod thing, some with the way he has handled internal team issues like Torre's departure, Girardi's handling of Posada, etc.
Again, it's never pretty when a star player starts going downhill.
The term bush league is bush league.
I don't see anything wrong with what Jeter did. Other guys have done it. Is it really that different than a player making a short hop/trap catch and raising the glove pretending to have caught it? One is trying to get on base and the other is trying to keep a guy off base but they are basically doing the same thing.
I don't see anything wrong with what Jeter did. Other guys have done it. Is it really that different than a player making a short hop/trap catch and raising the glove pretending to have caught it? One is trying to get on base and the other is trying to keep a guy off base but they are basically doing the same thing.
That's a fair question, but I think the difference is that at home plate, the ump is necessarily shielded to an extent from many possible HBPs (especially below the waist), whereas on a play in the outfield, it's virtually always in front of the fielder, so the ump should have a clear viewing angle.
Not a huge deal, but I agree with Ensberg.
Wow, really? It didn't look like a big deal at all. I figured maybe a day off and then back to the quest for 3,000.
Like Moses to the Israelites, God will not let the great Derek Jeter enter the promised land of 3,000 hits.
I think this is all a big ploy to get him to 3,000 at home once they realized he wasn't going to do it on the current home stand.
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