Dempster Done?

Scriblerus

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2009
998
Worcester, MA
So…let's look at this team.  Dempster walks away from millions of dollars because it's the right thing to do.  He has a ring, he played toss with his Dad in Fenway Park, won a World Series with a team that quite simply did what it had to do to win, and experienced what sounds a whole lot like the dream that kids think about when they first put on a glove and play the game. 
 
Lester is saying he will take less money to stay in Boston.  Pedroia has already done so.  Gomes is Gomes, Napoli took less to stay, and then you have guys like Nava and Carp and Ross…
 
There are home-grown players lined up to start and a front office willing to let them.  It's easy to be cynical about MLB, players and front office alike, but seriously, does a player walk away from that much money unless he believes in the team and what they stand for? 
 
I have been a Red Sox fan my whole life, but there hasn't been a time in the last 30 years that I have been as proud to be a fan as I have been this past year.  
 

Andrew

broke his neck in costa rica
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
12,011
Western Massachusetts
Napoli didn't take less to stay, he bet on his future health. If he is healthy he'll end up making more career money with this deal than if he took the Texas one.  Let's not go overboard.
 

brandonchristensen

mad photochops
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
24,774
Scriblerus said:
Solet's look at this team.  Dempster walks away from millions of dollars because it's the right thing to do.  He has a ring, he played toss with his Dad in Fenway Park, won a World Series with a team that quite simply did what it had to do to win, and experienced what sounds a whole lot like the dream that kids think about when they first put on a glove and play the game. 
 
Lester is saying he will take less money to stay in Boston.  Pedroia has already done so.  Gomes is Gomes, Napoli took less to stay, and then you have guys like Nava and Carp and Ross
 
There are home-grown players lined up to start and a front office willing to let them.  It's easy to be cynical about MLB, players and front office alike, but seriously, does a player walk away from that much money unless he believes in the team and what they stand for? 
 
I have been a Red Sox fan my whole life, but there hasn't been a time in the last 30 years that I have been as proud to be a fan as I have been this past year.  
It's stunning, isn't it? After 2012, we were a joke. Now we are one of the most likable teams in baseball.
 

YTF

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Scriblerus said:
So…let's look at this team.  Dempster walks away from millions of dollars because it's the right thing to do.  He has a ring, he played toss with his Dad in Fenway Park, won a World Series with a team that quite simply did what it had to do to win, and experienced what sounds a whole lot like the dream that kids think about when they first put on a glove and play the game. 
 
Lester is saying he will take less money to stay in Boston.  Pedroia has already done so.  Gomes is Gomes, Napoli took less to stay, and then you have guys like Nava and Carp and Ross…
 
There are home-grown players lined up to start and a front office willing to let them.  It's easy to be cynical about MLB, players and front office alike, but seriously, does a player walk away from that much money unless he believes in the team and what they stand for? 
 
I have been a Red Sox fan my whole life, but there hasn't been a time in the last 30 years that I have been as proud to be a fan as I have been this past year.  
 
There's a whole lot of feel good and optimism in this post and I've no reason to knock that, but I am curious as to what the highlighted means. I think walking away from the money has more to do with the priorities he's placed on his life right now and the obligation that he feels that he can't reasonably live up to. Would have been "easy" to show up at camp, go through a season of DL stints, collect the 13.25 and ride off into the sunset. After all, this IS how the system works and Lord knows others have done this, but it's not where his heart or head is at.
 

seantoo

toots his own horn award winner
Jul 16, 2005
1,308
Southern NH, from Watertown, MA
kelpapa said:
Cot's has them at $148,475 if you subtract Dempster's contract out. This does not include the pre-arb players and benefits.
My spreadsheet using Cott's has the team at $145.7 plus what they owe LAD $3.90, plus Benefits etc. $10.8 for a total of $160.4 Million, although my spread sheet goes by yearly salary and not AAV.
 

seantoo

toots his own horn award winner
Jul 16, 2005
1,308
Southern NH, from Watertown, MA
Jack Rabbit Slim said:
 
Seems like the last spot would have to go to a long man.  I don't see anyone there that can go more than 2 innings. 
I agree, the list by the other poster was good except for that oversite, if you substitute Workman as your swingman in lieu of Madson whose not part of the team and the staff is ready to start the season. Dempster retiring, assuming we have injuries like any other team, solved alot of problems.
 

seantoo

toots his own horn award winner
Jul 16, 2005
1,308
Southern NH, from Watertown, MA
TOleary25 said:
For those pointing out that it frees up money to extend Lester and fit the new contract under the luxury tax, the Sox/Lester could just wait until the season to sign an extension (ala Gonzalez and Beckett) so that the new AAV doesn't hit in 2014. With all of the money coming off the books in 2015, Lester's new contract should easily fit under the luxury tax. 
 
I'm in agreement with those saying the FO likely let Dempster know they either had trade possibilities or he wasn't going to be in the rotation to start the season. Ultimately I think it is a break for the Sox, no need to pay $13m for a 6th starter when there is a bunch of young talent that seem on the verge of making an impact in the MLB. This opens up the possibility to see more of Workman/Ranaudo/Barnes/Webster etc. at the big league level and let them compete for the rotation opening(s) in 2015. 
The Sox routinely do this. If Lester and the Sox come/came to an agreement we will be hearing about it shortly after the season starts.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
TOleary25 said:
For those pointing out that it frees up money to extend Lester and fit the new contract under the luxury tax, the Sox/Lester could just wait until the season to sign an extension (ala Gonzalez and Beckett) so that the new AAV doesn't hit in 2014. With all of the money coming off the books in 2015, Lester's new contract should easily fit under the luxury tax. 
 
I'm in agreement with those saying the FO likely let Dempster know they either had trade possibilities or he wasn't going to be in the rotation to start the season. Ultimately I think it is a break for the Sox, no need to pay $13m for a 6th starter when there is a bunch of young talent that seem on the verge of making an impact in the MLB. This opens up the possibility to see more of Workman/Ranaudo/Barnes/Webster etc. at the big league level and let them compete for the rotation opening(s) in 2015. 
But if I understand the CBA correctly, that methodology (the Beckett/AGonz approach of announcing on Day 2 of the season) helps when you want to push AAV off to future seasons.  The advantage to tearing up Lester's 2014 as part of an extension is to reduce AAV in 2015 and following, BECAUSE there is now an extra $13.5M of space in 2014.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,964
Maine
Saints Rest said:
But if I understand the CBA correctly, that methodology (the Beckett/AGonz approach of announcing on Day 2 of the season) helps when you want to push AAV off to future seasons.  The advantage to tearing up Lester's 2014 as part of an extension is to reduce AAV in 2015 and following, BECAUSE there is now an extra $13.5M of space in 2014.
 
His AAV right now is $9.37M for 2014 (per Speier).  If they extend him now by tacking on another $100M over the next five years, that makes it effectively a 6/$113M contract (his actual salary in 2014 is $13M).  That would raise his 2014 AAV to ~$18.8M.  So they double the value against the cap in 2014 in order to save roughly $2M in "cap space" in 2015-2019.  I'm not sure that trade off is worth it.  They might be better served having that $9M in reserve to address a roster need this year than having that $2M per year going forward.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
His AAV right now is $9.37M for 2014 (per Speier).  If they extend him now by tacking on another $100M over the next five years, that makes it effectively a 6/$113M contract (his actual salary in 2014 is $13M).  That would raise his 2014 AAV to ~$18.8M.  So they double the value against the cap in 2014 in order to save roughly $2M in "cap space" in 2015-2019.  I'm not sure that trade off is worth it.  They might be better served having that $9M in reserve to address a roster need this year than having that $2M per year going forward.
After I posted here, I ran a similar thought experiment suing the same 5/$100M numbers and came to the same conclusion.  However, if the numbers changed to say 4/$80M (thus 5/$93M), then the calculus changes quite a bit as you would be bumping this year's AAC from $9.37M to $16.6M, and save you $3.4M per year over the out years.  
 

Mugsy's Jock

Longtime Member
Lifetime Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
10,644
Bi-Coastal, for the time being
Andrew said:
Napoli didn't take less to stay, he bet on his future health. If he is healthy he'll end up making more career money with this deal than if he took the Texas one.  Let's not go overboard.
I think Scribelus is referring just to Napoli's decision this year. Having made the bet on his health and taking the one year deal last year, Napoli was in a position to cash in even better (from Texas, if memory serves) than the Sox offer, but he elected to stay.

Yes, Napoli made out better than if he'd stuck with the original two-year proposal...but he could have done even better
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
brandonchristensen said:
It's stunning, isn't it? After 2012, we were a joke. Now we are one of the most likable teams in baseball.
 
It's almost like the stuff people were making fun of was completely trivial bullshit blown way out of proportion.
 

brandonchristensen

mad photochops
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
24,774
Rasputin said:
 
It's almost like the stuff people were making fun of was completely trivial bullshit blown way out of proportion.
Well, our team fell into pieces...bloated contracts, 69 wins, blah blah. There was very little reason for optimism going into 2013 (other than Bobby V being gone).
 

Chief Wahoo

lurker
Aug 30, 2013
117
Mugsys Jock said:
I think Scribelus is referring just to Napoli's decision this year. Having made the bet on his health and taking the one year deal last year, Napoli was in a position to cash in even better (from Texas, if memory serves) than the Sox offer, but he elected to stay.

Yes, Napoli made out better than if he'd stuck with the original two-year proposal...but he could have done even better
 
Napoli's also taking a risk on his health this year with a chance to come out way ahead..  He was offered 3/39 from Texas.  He settled on 2/32 from Boston.
 
He's giving up more guaranteed money but if he's healthy after 2015 he just needs to make $8M in 2016 to do better.  And if he's healthy then I'm sure he'll pull in far more than $8M.  While I'm sure part of his motivation is to remain in Boston & run around the Back Bay shirtless again he could profit more from the deal with the Sox than the deal with the Rangers.  (I hope he does - that would mean at least two more productive seasons with the Sox.)
 
With that said I'm sure the desirability of Boston played a role in his decision.  He is risking $7M since he has a hip condition that could blow up his career any day.  Trying to put myself in his shoes I certainly wouldn't risk that guaranteed money to work for a company with a bad workplace environment.
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,038
brandonchristensen said:
Well, our team fell into pieces...bloated contracts, 69 wins, blah blah. There was very little reason for optimism going into 2013 (other than Bobby V being gone).
 
Well, yes there was seeing as Lackey, Bailey, Ortiz and Ellsbury were coming off injuries in 2012, which was a big part of 2012 disaster.   There was uncertainty in how well they would bounce back, but all but Bailey did.
 

TOleary25

lurker
Sep 30, 2011
358
Saints Rest said:
After I posted here, I ran a similar thought experiment suing the same 5/$100M numbers and came to the same conclusion.  However, if the numbers changed to say 4/$80M (thus 5/$93M), then the calculus changes quite a bit as you would be bumping this year's AAC from $9.37M to $16.6M, and save you $3.4M per year over the out years.  
 
5/$93M= $18.6M per year right? So you're saving about $1.5M per year for those 4 extension years and losing $9M luxury tax space this year. I don't see the benefit in that. The Sox could put themselves in good position at the trade deadline if they keep that salary flexibity. 2015 already has a lot of money coming off the books as well so it doesn't seem like they'll be crunched for money.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
31,757
Haiku
Not to take anything away from Dempster's family priorities and neck problems, both of which are very real, but if the Red Sox' starting pitchers were to suffer a wave of injuries, Dempster could be back on the mound by July.
 

Andrew

broke his neck in costa rica
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
12,011
Western Massachusetts
Mugsys Jock said:
I think Scribelus is referring just to Napoli's decision this year. Having made the bet on his health and taking the one year deal last year, Napoli was in a position to cash in even better (from Texas, if memory serves) than the Sox offer, but he elected to stay.

Yes, Napoli made out better than if he'd stuck with the original two-year proposal...but he could have done even better
 
I mean this contract. When the current Sox one ends if he makes $8M or more the first year of his next deal he will be making more money overall than if he took the "better" deal Texas offered him. Him leaving money on the table to come back to the Sox this year is an exaggeration, he was betting on his own health. 
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
TOleary25 said:
 
5/$93M= $18.6M per year right? So you're saving about $1.5M per year for those 4 extension years and losing $9M luxury tax space this year. I don't see the benefit in that. The Sox could put themselves in good position at the trade deadline if they keep that salary flexibity. 2015 already has a lot of money coming off the books as well so it doesn't seem like they'll be crunched for money.
You're right (and I am usually good at math!).
 

kelpapa

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 15, 2010
2,624
seantoo said:
My spreadsheet using Cott's has the team at $145.7 plus what they owe LAD $3.90, plus Benefits etc. $10.8 for a total of $160.4 Million, although my spread sheet goes by yearly salary and not AAV.
The numbers on Cot's included the $3.9 to LA. It also does not count the AAV, so that's a good point. 
 
Regarding the $3.9 million being paid toward LA, that still gets counted toward the Sox luxury tax, right?
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
7,175
Santa Monica
Sprowl said:
Not to take anything away from Dempster's family priorities and neck problems, both of which are very real, but if the Red Sox' starting pitchers were to suffer a wave of injuries, Dempster could be back on the mound by July.
If the Sox were to face a 'wave of injuries' from the starters, that might imply to me that the Sox would be pretty far down in the standings.
 
Then I'd rather use those innings to develop some of our young arms at the major league level. Besides the obvious top prospects: Workman, Webster, Renaudo, Barnes, and Owens. I'd also rather see guys like Drake Britton, Rubby De La Rosa and Stephen Wright given a shot, then go for an older pitcher with chronic neck issues like Dempster.
 
It seemed like a lot of things went right for the Sox last season, if this season goes in the other direction I could easily swallow watching the development of JBJ, WMB, Xander. Plus some of our catchers (Vasquez, Butler, Lavarnaway). And guys like Cecchini, Hassan, and Brentz. 
 

LeoCarrillo

Do his bits at your peril.
SoSH Member
Oct 13, 2008
7,497
New York City
benhogan said:
If the Sox were to face a 'wave of injuries' from the starters, that might imply to me that the Sox would be pretty far down in the standings.
 
Then I'd rather use those innings to develop some of our young arms at the major league level. Besides the obvious top prospects: Workman, Webster, Renaudo, Barnes, and Owens. I'd also rather see guys like Drake Britton, Brian Johnson, Rubby De La Rosa and Stephen Wright given a shot, then go for an older pitcher with chronic neck issues like Dempster.
 
It seemed like a lot of things went right for the Sox last season, if this season goes in the other direction I could easily swallow watching the development of JBJ, WMB, Xander. Plus some of our catchers (Vasquez, Butler, Lavarnaway). And guys like Hassan and Brentz. 
 
He's not coming back if Lester/Lackey are done for the year and Buchholz is having another 2013 injury-wise.
 
But they love this guy. If he's capable (family and injury), I don't doubt that they'd love to have him back for the second half. Plus, with the second wild card, it's hard to imagine even an injury-ravaged Sox team being any worse than 4 out of a playoff spot halfway through the year.
 
Lots of unknowns here, especially the development of the youngsters, but part of me would love to see Dempster come back for a couple months. Even if he's not on the playoff roster.
 

LoweTek

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 30, 2005
1,525
Central Florida
I can't locate a reference online but Bob Stanley did this same thing leaving I believe it was $1.1m on the table. A lot of money in 1990 and one of the highest AAVs on the roster IIRC. He was healthy and had a good year his previous season but had family health concerns around his son's illness, if I am not mistaken.