Defending the GOAT: What should Belichick do to slow down Brady/Tampa offense?

BigSoxFan

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Figured the strategy piece should be stripped out from the other thread, which will likely continue to focus on the drama of Brady's departure. As for the game itself, I think it's going to be fascinating to see how Belichick attempts to defend this Tampa offense and, specifically, Brady himself. This is a team that doesn't really have a great running game but they have 3 really good WRs and a rejuvenated Gronk/healthy Howard at TE. We've missed Gilmore so far this year but we'll REALLY miss him on SNF. Belichick knows better than anyone that you need to pressure Brady to have any chance against him. The Rams did a pretty good job of it and got the W but we don't have Aaron Donald and, quite frankly, I don't think we have the horses here. I envision multiple drives of Brady picking us apart although I could see the dynamic of the return and wanting to make a big statement leading him to take a few more chances than he normally would and perhaps we can pick off a few deep ones.

I think the key here is to dial up the pressure. A vanilla defense won't work so I really hope BB gets really exotic with his looks although there really isn't much he can throw at Brady that he hasn't ever seen. Sunday's game will simply come down to whether or not the Pats can physically hold up and perhaps get some turnover/fumble luck. The offense also needs to score and I've seen nothing to-date to suggest they're up to the task on that front.

In any event, discuss away.
 

rodderick

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If they go into this game thinking they need to blitz Brady to win, might as well not even take the field. Play coverage, rely on your guys to win up front and hope for the best, I really got nothing other than the basic stuff. Force them to extend drives and count on the Bucs being undisciplined with penalties, drops and fumbles, don't give up chunk plays. I mean, just play him like they played Peyton Manning in 2005-2010 when he stopped being baited by zone blitzes.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think you defend them like they defend KC or the Manning Denver teams. Play a really light front and beg Tampa to run the ball. JC Jackson gets Evans 1-on-1 , play bracket coverage on Godwin, chip Gronk and have Phillps cover him. Judon and Co. need to win up front and get to Brady without blitzing. Uche needs to be back badly.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think you defend them like they defend KC or the Manning Denver teams. Play a really light front and beg Tampa to run the ball. JC Jackson gets Evans 1-on-1 , play bracket coverage on Godwin, chip Gronk and have Phillps cover him. Judon and Co. need to win up front and get to Brady without blitzing. Uche needs to be back badly.
I think this is a good approach. Go so light up front that Brady is almost forced to call runs knowing that his natural competitiveness may get the better of him, especially earlier in the game when emotions are high. Pats need to bait him into one or multiple of those "fuck it, I'm throwing deep to an injured Gronk or Matthew Slater" moments.
 

cshea

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I've always thought the only way teams stand a chance against Brady is pressure up the middle while rushing 4. Virtually impossible to do.

Then you hope to get some turnover luck and/or dumb Bucs penalties and Arians decision making that ends drives. Either way, they're probably going to need to score in the 30's to have a chance and the offense does not seem capable of doing that.
 

rodderick

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I think this is a good approach. Go so light up front that Brady is almost forced to call runs knowing that his natural competitiveness may get the better of him, especially earlier in the game when emotions are high. Pats need to bait him into one or multiple of those "fuck it, I'm throwing deep to an injured Gronk or Matthew Slater" moments.
It's basically how KC played them in the Super Bowl and Brady played extremely disciplined, taking the checkdown allll game long with a super efficient performance. It's what they have to do, though.
 

Big McCorkle

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Yeah, Ronald Jones and Fournette are no threat whatsoever. Sell out to defend the pass, roll with something like a 3-2-6 or 4-1-6 and get Uche out there as frequently as possible, assuming Uche is available, and hope to God that Fournette and/or RoJo yet again commit serious fuckups in the passing game that result in sacks or turnovers or something else that kills the drive. Every early down run is a win.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's basically how KC played them in the Super Bowl and Brady played extremely disciplined, taking the checkdown allll game long with a super efficient performance. It's what they have to do, though.
Yeah, I tend to agree with you guys on this. Maybe try an aggressive approach early on but reality is we're not going to win many one-on-one battles and we can't get behind 2 scores so you probably just try to keep it in front of you and hope Jonnu's stone hand cousin, RoJo, coughs one up and Brady forces a big play or two.
 

SMU_Sox

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Cross-posting from other thread...

So for the game in particular I want to see how much Tampa uses stunts/twists and blitzes to pressure Mac and if the OL is going to finally start improving against them. Aside from Herron/Durant/Dumpster-fire at RT it isn't that they are losing 1:1s. I mean sure, there are examples of that, but that isn't the main issue with the pass protection. The main issue is that they are not blocking up anything well minus a vanilla rush. That's all coaching and execution and something that will get better with time... you'd expect. If the OL can get better with that we're going to see Mac have a top 10 pressure rate and plenty of time to throw in a clean pocket. Is this the week they clean that up? If so this might be a week where they go more 11 and take advantage of some of TB's injuries and performance issues with the back end of their defense. When they went 11 last week they had decent success. Also, while Bourne isn't straight line fast he strikes me as the typical Patriots Z who can be used on jet sweeps and put into motion. I'd like to see more of that this week too. Right now their 11 package is looking a lot better than their 12. Maybe they use more of that this week?

Defensively last week we saw them go more big nickel with 3 safeties (as predicted). This week though is interesting because you could make an argument for big nickel or using more Jon Jones and I think I like more Jon Jones than big nickel because TB doesn't have a great running game. I'd put Jones on Godwin and JCJ on Evans. Ideally I think you'd want to put a taller corner on Evans but with Gilmore out it might be easier to live with JCJ on him and just hope he can hold up enough at the catch point. You could possibly use JJW or Shaun Wade there but neither guy is as good a corner as Evans is as a pass catcher. Dugger hasn't been great in coverage but Phillips has. You want to use a safety or corner on Gronk. In theory a physical guy like Dugger would be a nice matchup but I don't think his coverage skills are there yet. This might not be a big Bentley game. I think you see 4-2-5 with High and Phillips as the LBs and Phillips the guy who handles Gronk. I am also worried about High. He doesn't look like the same guy.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Evan Lazar has suggested that they should abandon the tight formations and go more spread.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1442489817703620610?s=20

Evan Lazar: This is how the #Patriots need to consistently operate in passing situations. Mac in the gun, spread the field, give the QB/O-Line a good look at the blitz, Hunter Henry on a safety. Ball out fast and past the sticks. Quick, efficient, find the matchups.
 

rodderick

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Evan Lazar has suggested that they should abandon the tight formations and go more spread.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1442489817703620610?s=20

Evan Lazar: This is how the #Patriots need to consistently operate in passing situations. Mac in the gun, spread the field, give the QB/O-Line a good look at the blitz, Hunter Henry on a safety. Ball out fast and past the sticks. Quick, efficient, find the matchups.
Love it, this should 100% be how they attack Tampa.
 

Captaincoop

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A) I'm really curious to see how Smith bounces back from that trainwreck of a performance. I can't remember the last time I saw a tight end get booed off the field. He can't really be that bad at catching the football, but it would take an impressive level of mental discipline to bounce back. And the Pats need him to bounce back.

B) To one of SMU's points above - in re: Hightower. We're getting dangerously close to having to stop counting on Hightower as a key piece on defense. He has been really, really bad. Sure, he could be shaking off the cobwebs from a year off. But he's also getting old and he looks every bit his age right now. He's been on the sideline for key defensive drives at the end of two games already this year.
 

Big McCorkle

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Evan Lazar has suggested that they should abandon the tight formations and go more spread.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1442489817703620610?s=20

Evan Lazar: This is how the #Patriots need to consistently operate in passing situations. Mac in the gun, spread the field, give the QB/O-Line a good look at the blitz, Hunter Henry on a safety. Ball out fast and past the sticks. Quick, efficient, find the matchups.
Yup, I was saying the same thing after yesterday's game. I love the theoretical idea of 12 personnel, but it's really bad as a default package if one of your tight ends has been completely terrible and the other merely okay. It doesn't feel great given what the money they've committed to the position, but it's time to shelve that experiment until you can have any reasonable confidence in Jonnu. Bourne-Meyers-Agholor is the way to go.

Not sure how this would slow down Brady though, lol.

Also, what the absolute fuck was that block by Herron?
 

Eddie Jurak

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Yup, I was saying the same thing after yesterday's game. I love the theoretical idea of 12 personnel, but it's really bad as a default package if one of your tight ends has been completely terrible and the other merely okay. It doesn't feel great given what the money they've committed to the position, but it's time to shelve that experiment until you can have any reasonable confidence in Jonnu. Bourne-Meyers-Agholor is the way to go.

Not sure how this would slow down Brady though, lol.

Also, what the absolute fuck was that block by Herron?
They don't even have to go completely away from 12, if they split Smith and Henry.
 

joe dokes

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B) To one of SMU's points above - in re: Hightower. We're getting dangerously close to having to stop counting on Hightower as a key piece on defense. He has been really, really bad. Sure, he could be shaking off the cobwebs from a year off. But he's also getting old and he looks every bit his age right now. He's been on the sideline for key defensive drives at the end of two games already this year.
He reminds me of Mayo in *his* final year. Perfectly healthy (or at least as healthy as a veteran ILB can be) after a run of injuries but just plain ineffective.
 

Cellar-Door

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They don't even have to go completely away from 12, if they split Smith and Henry.
yeah I wouldn't go away from 12 that much I'd just split Henry out since he can't block.
A) I'm really curious to see how Smith bounces back from that trainwreck of a performance. I can't remember the last time I saw a tight end get booed off the field. He can't really be that bad at catching the football, but it would take an impressive level of mental discipline to bounce back. And the Pats need him to bounce back.
I think he'll bounce back. If there is one positive to take from yesterday it's that he got the opportunity to drop passes because he was the most consistently available target. I think he'll be better next week and as he gets a rhythm he'll be fine as the season goes on.
 

Big McCorkle

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yeah I wouldn't go away from 12 that much I'd just split Henry out since he can't block.
Henry's been better than Smith as a blocker. Regardless, if you're splitting a tight end out wide and keeping one on the inside, it's probably got to be because it's giving you a mismatch against an inept coverage linebacker and/or the defense is sticking with base personnel against that look. Which, okay, Devin White exists, so that could work this week because he is utterly inept, but outside of those situations you'd be better off with a third wide receiver out there.
 

Cellar-Door

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Henry's been better than Smith as a blocker. Regardless, if you're splitting a tight end out wide and keeping one on the inside, it's probably got to be because it's giving you a mismatch against an inept coverage linebacker and/or the defense is sticking with base personnel against that look. Which, okay, Devin White exists, so that could work this week because he is utterly inept, but outside of those situations you'd be better off with a third wide receiver out there.
Henry has not been a better blocker than Smith, there is a reason they left Smith in to block so much more than Henry who ran a lot more routes. I get the idea that a WR causes a mismatch, but honestly I think you're getting more mismatches with Henry's size given that the Patriots don't have 3 WRs with size or speed. I like Henry on a LB more than Bourne on a corner most weeks. And if they put a small guy on him you can bring him back to the formation to run it. I don't trust Henry to block LBs, but if you try to put a corner or most FS on him... I feel pretty good motioning him back inside and running behind 7 guys.
 

RIrooter09

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Maybe BB has been saving all of his exotic coverages for this matchup. A man can dream.
 

Big McCorkle

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Henry has not been a better blocker than Smith, there is a reason they left Smith in to block so much more than Henry who ran a lot more routes. I get the idea that a WR causes a mismatch, but honestly I think you're getting more mismatches with Henry's size given that the Patriots don't have 3 WRs with size or speed. I like Henry on a LB more than Bourne on a corner most weeks. And if they put a small guy on him you can bring him back to the formation to run it. I don't trust Henry to block LBs, but if you try to put a corner or most FS on him... I feel pretty good motioning him back inside and running behind 7 guys.
Henry and Smith have about the same amount of plays run blocking and pass blocking this year; the only real difference is in what percentage of their respective snaps they're doing it, because Henry has run about twice as many routes as Smith has. In the most recent game, yes, Smith was kept in to run block a bit more than Henry was, but I'm not going to draw comparative conclusions about their blocking performance based off a five snap disparity in a single game. They've both been bad run blockers, but going off of both what I've seen and how PFF has graded them in that regard, Smith has been somewhat worse. Neither has been covering themselves in glory, though.

And as I said, treating one of the two of them as a wide receiver is the thing to do if the opposing defense is going to give you a more favorable matchup than what you'd be getting with Bourne. I'm just not entirely confident that defenses are going to willingly give you those matchups all that often.

Honestly, if they really wanted to keep them both on the field, it might not be the worst idea to try out Jonnu at RB now that White is out, if they don't think Stevenson is ready.
 

Super Nomario

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Henry has not been a better blocker than Smith, there is a reason they left Smith in to block so much more than Henry who ran a lot more routes. I get the idea that a WR causes a mismatch, but honestly I think you're getting more mismatches with Henry's size given that the Patriots don't have 3 WRs with size or speed. I like Henry on a LB more than Bourne on a corner most weeks. And if they put a small guy on him you can bring him back to the formation to run it. I don't trust Henry to block LBs, but if you try to put a corner or most FS on him... I feel pretty good motioning him back inside and running behind 7 guys.
I think that is the theory, but they really haven't run the ball well this year. Also, there are plenty of situations where the run is just not a credible threat: two-minute drill, trailing big, 3rd-and-long, etc. I'm concerned the whole Two TE philosophy breaks down when the two TE are just guys and not Gronk and Hernandez.

Honestly, if they really wanted to keep them both on the field, it might not be the worst idea to try out Jonnu at RB now that White is out, if they don't think Stevenson is ready.
They did some of this in 2011. I don't think you can do that too much, but running a handful of plays out of this personnel grouping makes sense rather than more Brandon Bolden. It's pretty clear that with White out, their group of 5 best pass catchers doesn't include a RB.
 

j-man

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here is what i wouild do

1 take the 'SEAM' route away
2 u cannot pressure all game u must mix it up but when u do pressure up the middle or swim
3 mess up their tmieing on their WR routs
4 press
5 there are weird def u couild try 3 Saf 5 LB acoss the middle a 1-5-5
 

Harry Hooper

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The Falcons used robber coverage concepts to good effect vs. Brady in the Super Bowl. We'll see if the Pats use some of that.
 
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j-man

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on off

1 throw throw pretend its madden and throw most downs
2 their Saf are young a douable move could help
3 watch what jones did at bama and add that
4 they can stop the run but they lack death when u run run away from white and david
 

brandonchristensen

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I can't be the only one who simultaneously does not want to watch the game at all and wants to watch every second, right?
I’m super excited. I love the Pats and I love Brady. I will be happy with either team winning, I’d prefer the Pats to win a hard fought game where maybe Brady leads the Bucs to a lead with 90 seconds left and Mac charges down to win.

But it’ll be sad to see this. A true final moment for Tom Brady and the Pats. He’s been playing more than half my life time. That’s nuts.
 

rodderick

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I’m super excited. I love the Pats and I love Brady. I will be happy with either team winning, I’d prefer the Pats to win a hard fought game where maybe Brady leads the Bucs to a lead with 90 seconds left and Mac charges down to win.

But it’ll be sad to see this. A true final moment for Tom Brady and the Pats. He’s been playing more than half my life time. That’s nuts.
You know what's going to happen, right? The Pats will lose and Brady will play poorly, thus ensuring no one gets anything from this game.
 

cornwalls@6

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I think this is much more of an execution game, than a scheme game for the Pats defense. At this point in his career, there's likely very little they can come up with in terms of a look that Brady hasn't already seen, or can't figure out and dissect to some degree. Some things will work on one drive, not on another. But no matter what look they're in, getting off blocks, getting some (preferably up the middle) pressure, maintaining sound coverage principals, communicating, and tackling well all need to be consistent throughout the game for them to have any chance. Avoid chunk plays, force long drives, try to button it up in the red zone. It's also impossible for me to see them winning this game without forcing at least a couple of turnovers. I think the effort and focus will be there. Not as confident that they have the horses to pull it off though. Really wish they had Gilmore available for this one.
 

Mystic Merlin

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If Brady plays poorly, I will sleep like a baby. This game doesn’t actually mean much, except as a small data point to be wielded in endless, and futile, future bar room debates over BB v Brady.

Anyways, Tampa is gonna score points, the key is to find some punts, turnovers, and RZ stops in there. In terms of specific tactics, I think a shit load of A gap pressures is a good tactic, even if that exposes the defense to certain running plays. In terms of coverage, I don’t see Bill dialing up a ton of cover 1 man concepts because it’s pretty dangerous to consistently leave that WR corps with 1:1s and no help. Lots of two deep safety looks that live with the Bucs running the ball against a lighter box makes sense.
 

MegaBiffHead

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If Brady plays poorly, I will sleep like a baby. This game doesn’t actually mean much, except as a small data point to be wielded in endless, and futile, future bar room debates over BB v Brady.

Anyways, Tampa is gonna score points, the key is to find some punts, turnovers, and RZ stops in there. In terms of specific tactics, I think a shit load of A gap pressures is a good tactic, even if that exposes the defense to certain running plays. In terms of coverage, I don’t see Bill dialing up a ton of cover 1 man concepts because it’s pretty dangerous to consistently leave that WR corps with 1:1s and no help. Lots of two deep safety looks that live with the Bucs running the ball against a lighter box makes sense.
So, you will wake up every hour crying? Lol but in all seriousness Brady is going to be coming out angry. It's a rebuild year so I'm not too worried about wins this year.
 

RedOctober3829

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Love it, this should 100% be how they attack Tampa.
This is how they should be attacking everybody. In preseason, it was apparent that Mac was most comfortable out of the gun in a spread-it-out kind of offense. It reduces the number of players in the box and he has more time to read the defense. Why McD was slow to realize this is beyond me. They actually showed a lot of promise offensively in the 2nd half in the times he actually got the time to survey the field. Fix that and fix the absolutely abomination that is the playcalling near the goal line and we should see some improvement.

They should especially spread it out against Tampa to make them cover. That's the worst part of their defense. It's so bad they are having Richard Sherman, a zone corner, in to help a team in which the scheme he is most good at they don't play.
 

j44thor

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I think that is the theory, but they really haven't run the ball well this year. Also, there are plenty of situations where the run is just not a credible threat: two-minute drill, trailing big, 3rd-and-long, etc. I'm concerned the whole Two TE philosophy breaks down when the two TE are just guys and not Gronk and Hernandez.


They did some of this in 2011. I don't think you can do that too much, but running a handful of plays out of this personnel grouping makes sense rather than more Brandon Bolden. It's pretty clear that with White out, their group of 5 best pass catchers doesn't include a RB.
The reason Bolden got more snaps than Harris last week wasn't because he is a good RB or even pass catcher it is because Harris is a poor pass protector. Whoever they line up at RB this week needs to be a good pass protector, apparently Bolden can get the job done and sadly I don't think anyone else in the RB room has the trust of the coaching staff and likely for good reason. Perhaps Jonnu can be an effective pass protector?
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Stopping Brady has to start with the offense. Against Miami, the Pats were able to control the ball and the clock for long stretches, and even with the two fumbles, they limited Miami to 9 drives. They gave the Saints 11 possessions (not counting the end of game interception) and the Jets 12. If they give Brady 11 or 12 drives, it is going to be almost impossible for the defense to keep him in check. BB always talks about complimentary football, they really need some on Sunday.
 

SMU_Sox

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Feels like a game where if Gilmore were back you’d put Mills and DMC in a lot of 2 high looks. I think 2 high safeties is a better approach and forcing them to run but who plays the other split safety? Dugger? I don’t know about his coverage skills there but he’s had reps doing that. Phillips? I would rather have him on Gronk. Jon Jones? Rather he would be on Godwin. Mills? Ok but then who are your outside corners JCJ and… seems like they are one short in the secondary.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Feels like a game where if Gilmore were back you’d put Mills and DMC in a lot of 2 high looks. I think 2 high safeties is a better approach and forcing them to run but who plays the other split safety? Dugger? I don’t know about his coverage skills there but he’s had reps doing that. Phillips? I would rather have him on Gronk. Jon Jones? Rather he would be on Godwin. Mills? Ok but then who are your outside corners JCJ and… seems like they are one short in the secondary.
Not optimal in the least but could Joejuan or Wade be that second high Safety?
 

SMU_Sox

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Not optimal in the least but could Joejuan or Wade be that second high Safety?
I think they tried JJW out at safety during the pre-season? In theory Wade could work there. One of his questions was where is he going to play. But I think they have been practicing him at outside CB. I wish I had a better answer but I am not sure either of them work. You know who would be nice for this game? Bryant.

Edit: Bryant could handle slot reps or split safety looks. Not sure how they would handle the roster crunch though.
 

Cellar-Door

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I will say, I think the idea that you have to use the offense to control Brady is true, BUT... they aren't going to be able to hold possession. The Bucs are just too good against the run. What they need to do is recognize that you have to score 24 to win this minimum and be aggressive on offense.