Decision Time?

LynnRice75 · Jun 6, 2023

I’m just waiting for that horizon to arrive.
It’ll be interesting when sone if the guys who have been holding down the fort become solid backups.
When everyone is back, Cora will have an interesting opportunity to mix and match Turner and Duval and Story to limit at bats to slumping players like Casas and Duran. (I’d like to see Turner at first and Duval at DH the majority of the time.)
In honesty though, if Devers doesn’t step it up a bit, the offense is going to suffer.

moondog80 · Jun 6, 2023

Nearly two months before the deadline so needless to say, a lot can happen, in either direction . But if they decide to sell....Jansen, Turner, Duvall, Paxton could all be in play for at least a Christian Vazquez-level return.. Maybe Sale if this shoulder thing is just a hiccup.

Worth noting that last year was such a buyer's market that guys like Carlos Rodon and Willson Contreras were shopped, but not traded. We 'll see if that's different this time around.

Ghost of Todd Benzinger · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
There’s a whole lot of What-Ifs going forward. Sox at the 1/3 point and have fallen apart recently- mental mistakes all around…. Poor coaching…. Injuries, offensive struggles, poor starting pitching, Jensen looking like he’s finished at 400…. Sale now injured. Offense struggles to score. Starting rotation is subpar…

I’m not suggesting yet… but asking. Things could suddenly go right and the team could find themselves back in the race real quickly. A lot hinges on the health of Sale.
When should Bloom make a call to sell? And what can he sell? Or really should he? When is too soon to be thinking about this?
When everything is clicking for this team it can look really good and even scary. With Story, Duvall and potentially Mondesi on the horizon maybe they should look to buy?
Whatchall thinking here?

I've come to the conclusion that this is a lost season. Why? Because Bloom never acquired a major league quality SS until Story returns - and that's assuming Story even has the arm strength to play the position. They just aren't strong enough up the middle to be taken seriously. Even with the return of Duvall. I like Duvall, but let's face it, he is a career .230 hitter who rarely walks. And I'd be shocked if he picks up where he left off in April.

Even more troubling is starting pitching depth. Bello is improving. Paxton looks strong. But I have no confidence Sale will be healthy and effective again. The rest of the rotation is back end guys. Worse, Walters and Murphy have been brutal at AAA. Mata can't throw strikes. And Winkleman is light years away. They needed to sign either Eovaldi or Wacha this offseason. Why they didn't is one of life's great mysteries.

Delicious Sponge · Jun 6, 2023

With Duvall and Story back this is a very different team. Devers will return to form. They’ll hit.

Bello is improving and so is Whitlock. If Sale comes back and Paxton keeps pitching like he has….this is a team that has a good shot at one of those wild cards.

If they make trades it’ll be around the edges. This isn’t a team that was built to be dismantled.

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
There’s a whole lot of What-Ifs going forward. Sox at the 1/3 point and have fallen apart recently- mental mistakes all around…. Poor coaching…. Injuries, offensive struggles, poor starting pitching, Jensen looking like he’s finished at 400…. Sale now injured. Offense struggles to score. Starting rotation is subpar…

I’m not suggesting yet… but asking. Things could suddenly go right and the team could find themselves back in the race real quickly. A lot hinges on the health of Sale.
When should Bloom make a call to sell?

When he is made an offer he should not refuse. There is no urgency to sell this far before the deadline & it would probably send the wrong message at this point.

And what can he sell?

Almost anything.

The obvious 1st group is players they don't have control over next year. This is actually a really small group.

Duvall - If he can show he's healthy, could have some trade value & a 34 y/o outfielder with his hitting profile probably not someone you want to lock up long term.

Hernández - If someone wants him, sure? Don't see him profiling as more than a part time player next year & unless he wants to go back to a super utility role on shorter $, moving him makes sense.

Mondesi - Can't get anything for him unless he starts playing really well. If he gets back & looks ok, could check in & see if he's interested in taking an incentive-based one year deal to be part of the bridge to Mayer, or see if anyone needs him for something.

Paxton - He seems to like it here, as evidenced by taking the 1/$4m to stick around when he could have thrown your teams/gotten more/ etc. Could check in on him & see where he's at in terms of whether he wants to go to a contender/interest in extending or potentially reuniting after the year, etc. If he keeps pitching well, though, definitely worth at least testing the market for him.

Next is old dudes/JAGs who probably aren't part of the next core/FA after next season:

Kluber - $11m team option for next year. Maybe could have a tiny, tiny bit of value if he pitches a bit better & they eat all his salary? If he's as good of a team guy as everyone says, though, not much point.

Pivetta - Arb 3 next year. Value crazy low right now. If they couldn't trade him in the off season, don't see much point in trading him now unless he gets on a hot steak.

Bleier - $3.8m team option for next year. Another guy with no value unless he pitches better, but if he does, happy to move him for anything.

Joely - $4.3m team option for next year. I think he's sucked this year for health reasons & could actually be good... but they're not picking up that option unless he pitches a lot better & also not getting any value for him unless he does.

Jansen - Under contract for $16m for next year. Happy to move him if anyone wants him & wants to give us something semi-legit in return. Seems unlikely unless, like everyone else he starts playing better.

Turner - He's 38 & has a player option for next season which he probably opts out of because the large buyout means he only has to make over $5.7m on his next contract for it to make financial sense to. Seems like a good guy to check in with & see what he wants to do with the rest of his career, but almost certainly move.

Martin - Has one year & $7.5m left. I would consider moving him only if blown away by an offer because I see him as an integral part of the bullpen again next year.

Arroyo - Arb 3 next year. If someone really wants him? Happy to listen.

Verdugo - Arb 3 next year. I think you need to talk extension and/or see if someone is making you an offer you can't refuse because letting him just walk after next year would be unfortunate. Not really looking to move him, though.

Everyone else is locked up for at least 2 more years. Happy to listen on basically any of them, but seems unlikely you're getting anything that would make it worthwhile to move the longer term pieces... with the possible exception of if Sale starts dealing again...

Or really should he?

Probably.

When is too soon to be thinking about this?

Literally never. He should have been thinking about this since before the season started.

When everything is clicking for this team it can look really good and even scary. With Story, Duvall and potentially Mondesi on the horizon maybe they should look to buy?
Whatchall thinking here?

If they start playing better, I guess we'll see in a month or so. Right now their odds of playoffing are not good.

& they are primarily built for '24-'25 & I still don't think they plan on messing up the opening of that window.

YTF · Jun 6, 2023

ATM I think it's a bit early to commit one way or the other, but trust that Bloom is preparing for about 4-6 different scenarios, looking at possible needs for other teams, IL listings as well as his own team's possible needs and/or expendable
pieces. Plans A-F if you will.

Blizzard of 1978 · Jun 6, 2023

Sell. This team isn't good enough. It will be more apparent in 2 weeks. Swept by Cardinals, swept by Angels than losing 6 out of 7 to Rays. Yep, a lot of posters were right it will be 2025 or 2026 until they will be big players again.

yeahlunchbox · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
There’s no mystery…. You might not like the read but it’s not a mystery at all.

SS- The team is 100% behind Mayer and signing one of the available SS was going to block him and cost $25m+ per season for an aging players for 8-10 seasons….That’s wasteful.

SP- very similar. They were looking for one year vets that could either pitch well and help or be traded if things didn’t. If they couldn’t be dealt it doesn’t lock the team into long term declining contracts… I’m not convinced at all that Eo and Wacha will sustain pitching better than Whitlock, Paxton and Bello.

The thread isn’t really to litigate the past though- it’s clearly to discuss the next two months… was the intro post and it’s to discuss what Bloom should do. I’m sure the Sox are thinking about it- but to me it really hinges on Sale. If it’s serious- start to look into selling. If it’s minor… then the returns of Story, Duvall, and possibly Mondesi will really help and some of the parts could be packaged up (Yorke? Duran?) to address a SP or another BP arm…

Bloom shouldn't be doing anything, he should be relieved of his duties at this point. Letting him preside over another trade deadline would be a complete and total organizational failure.

8slim · Jun 6, 2023

YTF said:
ATM I think it's a bit early to commit one way or the other, but trust that Bloom is preparing for about 4-6 different scenarios, looking at possible needs for other teams, IL listings as well as his own team's possible needs and/or expendable
pieces. Plans A-F if you will.

This is it. The FO has game planned multiple approaches, I’m sure. And they’ll implement one or more of them as the team’s W/L record dictates.

I’m not sure there’s a ton of value to be had if we need to deal vets anyway.

absintheofmalaise · Jun 6, 2023

Blizzard of 1978 said:
Sell. This team isn't good enough. It will be more apparent in 2 weeks. Swept by Cardinals, swept by Angels than losing 6 out of 7 to Rays. Yep, a lot of posters were right it will 2025 or 2026 until they big players again.

What should a team with a winning record do that was swept by Houston and Toronto and lost 3 of 4 to San Diego, 2 of 3 to LAD, split 2-2 with the Phillies, lost 2 of 3 with Oakland, and split with Boston 1-1?

edit: They also have two starters on the 60 day IL and are getting shit production from their DH, CF, and SS.

moondog80 · Jun 6, 2023

8slim said:
I’m not sure there’s a ton of value to be had if we need to deal vets anyway.

Jansen, with an extra year on his deal, could generate a nice, if not elite, package.

There's also a diminishing return on B-/C+ level prospects. The Vazquez trade last summer was great. But pretend they get that return for Duvall, and also for Paxton and for Turner. And a moderately better return for Jansen. That's a lot to fit on the 40 man roster, especially if they would also be adding a couple of Hosmer types to replace the guys on the ML roster.

BaseballJones · Jun 6, 2023

Jansen would likely net a pretty decent return given that he's still good and that he's under contract for another year.

If Paxton continues to pitch like this, he'd also likely get a pretty decent return, even as a rental. How many contenders could use a legit, quality, power-throwing left handed starter? A lot.

Hernandez has been pretty bad but could still net something, I think, because of his versatility.

Duvall definitely has value as a power right handed bat.

Turner does as well, especially given his playoff experience.

I mean, if the Red Sox were in "sell" mode, they could sell a lot of parts and probably end up with a decent haul. But then it's total rebuild mode again for them next year. Which it may be anyway.

Benj4ever · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
There’s a whole lot of What-Ifs going forward. Sox at the 1/3 point and have fallen apart recently- mental mistakes all around…. Poor coaching…. Injuries, offensive struggles, poor starting pitching, Jensen looking like he’s finished at 400…. Sale now injured. Offense struggles to score. Starting rotation is subpar…

I’m not suggesting yet… but asking. Things could suddenly go right and the team could find themselves back in the race real quickly. A lot hinges on the health of Sale.
When should Bloom make a call to sell? And what can he sell? Or really should he? When is too soon to be thinking about this?
When everything is clicking for this team it can look really good and even scary. With Story, Duvall and potentially Mondesi on the horizon maybe they should look to buy?
Whatchall thinking here?

I don't have that crystal ball. Things could fall into place and we could see a return to 2021 (yeah, right), but who knows. Things do depend on the health of Sale and Casas making a step forward and Story returning to form and someone pitching like a closer, ad nauseum.

I'm more interested in looking forward. I've seen enough of Cora to kick him to the curb. I think we have the rest of the season to judge whether Duran is a piece or an afterthought. If the latter, I'd like to see us go after a CF in the offseason. I like Bello and Crawford in the rotation, Paxton would be a bonus. I'm hopeful that Whit is another piece, but maybe he's the closer. I'm not ready to give up on the AAA arms just yet, either.

So, yeah, I'd really like that crystal ball.

Ghost of Todd Benzinger · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
There’s no mystery…. You might not like the read but it’s not a mystery at all.

SS- The team is 100% behind Mayer and signing one of the available SS was going to block him and cost $25m+ per season for an aging players for 8-10 seasons….That’s wasteful.

SP- very similar. They were looking for one year vets that could either pitch well and help or be traded if things didn’t. If they couldn’t be dealt it doesn’t lock the team into long term declining contracts… I’m not convinced at all that Eo and Wacha will sustain pitching better than Whitlock, Paxton and Bello.

The thread isn’t really to litigate the past though- it’s clearly to discuss the next two months… was the intro post and it’s to discuss what Bloom should do. I’m sure the Sox are thinking about it- but to me it really hinges on Sale. If it’s serious- start to look into selling. If it’s minor… then the returns of Story, Duvall, and possibly Mondesi will really help and some of the parts could be packaged up (Yorke? Duran?) to address a SP or another BP arm…

You misunderstand me. No way the Sox should have signed X, Turner, Swanson or Correa for mega bucks. Three of four of whom are off to lousy starts this year and will soon become massive albatrosses for their new clubs. Well, at least Turner and X. Shortstops in their 30s never play as well as in their 20s and of course should not be paid as if they're still generating 20s-level production.

I'm thinking along the lines of Jose Iglesias, a solid glove and respectable bottom of the order type hitter, who can hold down the position for a few months at a very affordable rate. And hell, you get lucky, he might even hit .300.

No, Bloom makes the genius move of replacing an injured shortstop who will be out most of the season with another injured shortstop, Mondesi, who will be out for most of the season. Thus essentially waving a white flag on 2023. Though in fairness, I don't think anybody could have predicted that Kike would make this many errors at SS.

8slim · Jun 6, 2023

moondog80 said:
Jansen, with an extra year on his deal, could generate a nice, if not elite, package.

There's also a diminishing return on B-/C+ level prospects. The Vazquez trade last summer was great. But pretend they get that return for Duvall, and also for Paxton and for Turner. And a moderately better return for Jansen. That's a lot to fit on the 40 man roster, especially if they would also be adding a couple of Hosmer types to replace the guys on the ML roster.

Sure, any of the vets could get a decent return. The problem is that we’d be selling because most of them aren’t playing well. So it’s not clear to me how many teams would be eager to acquire underperforming vets in exchange for prospects that have any real upside. Maybe one nets out to be good across 3 or 4 trades.

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

Iglesias has 0 MLB at bats this season for a reason.

Doubt Jansen with a 3.86 ERA & 5.23 xFIP has much surplus value at $16m.

Max Power · Jun 6, 2023

Ghost of Todd Benzinger said:
I'm thinking along the lines of Jose Iglesias, a solid glove and respectable bottom of the order type hitter, who can hold down the position for a few months at a very affordable rate. And hell, you get lucky, he might even hit .300.

No, Bloom makes the genius move of replacing an injured shortstop who will be out most of the season with another injured shortstop, Mondesi, who will be out for most of the season. Thus essentially waving a white flag on 2023. Though in fairness, I don't think anybody could have predicted that Kike would make this many errors at SS.

Iglesias isn't playing anywhere right now and is likely cooked. Bloom also signed Chang, who was supposed to be the backup to Hernandez who was the bridge to Mondesi who was the bridge to Story. Then all of them got hurt and here we are.

Philip Jeff Frye · Jun 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
Jansen would likely net a pretty decent return given that he's still good and that he's under contract for another year.

Is he still good? Maybe it's just a temporary slump recently, but right now, through a third of the season, he's on pace for the worst ERA of his career (by half a run), the second worst ERA+, the second worst FIP, by far the worst WHIP (1.607 versus 0.953 lifetime), the most walks per inning, the least strikeouts per inning and, as a consequence of those last two, by far the worst K/W ratio he's ever posted. As noted above, he's being paid a lot for what seems like the decline phase of his career.

YTF · Jun 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
Jansen would likely net a pretty decent return given that he's still good and that he's under contract for another year.

If Paxton continues to pitch like this, he'd also likely get a pretty decent return, even as a rental. How many contenders could use a legit, quality, power-throwing left handed starter? A lot.

Hernandez has been pretty bad but could still net something, I think, because of his versatility.

Duvall definitely has value as a power right handed bat.

Turner does as well, especially given his playoff experience.

I mean, if the Red Sox were in "sell" mode, they could sell a lot of parts and probably end up with a decent haul. But then it's total rebuild mode again for them next year. Which it may be anyway.

So we have a 5-7 week window between having a fair idea of what direction the team should take and moving in the correct path. I see Paxton as the best potential MLB chip, but so much depends on health and performance. IF he stays healthy and pitches like a #2 or 3 pitcher, that type of performance coupled with the remainder of his $4M contract (perhaps 1.3 -- 1.5) should make him quite attractive. I think Jansen is a different case. He'll have about 21M due to him meaning he's really going to have to be dominant to bring back a good return.

E5 Yaz · Jun 6, 2023

YTF said:
So we have a 5-7 week window between having a fair idea of what direction the team should take and moving in the correct path.

Except that last season, the Red Sox went on their June tear and even with the poor July they found themselves in trade-zone purgatory. If they suddenly rip off a 20-6 run now, we'll be in the same uncertainty as last year

nvalvo · Jun 6, 2023

Ghost of Todd Benzinger said:
I'm thinking along the lines of Jose Iglesias, a solid glove and respectable bottom of the order type hitter, who can hold down the position for a few months at a very affordable rate. And hell, you get lucky, he might even hit .300.

I love that your post is about how bad 30+ shortstops are and then you pitch us on Jose Iglesias, age 33. Obviously he doesn’t cost what the Correas and Seagers of the world cost, but that’s because he’s not, you know, good.

At one point, he was elite with the glove. That point was several years ago, when he was on the other side of 30.

So we’re looking at a roughly league average defensive shortstop (bad by some measures, ok by others) with the worst contact quality in the majors, who is dependent on BABIP luck and infield hits to eke out an 80 wRC+. In other words, he’s Pablo Reyes but four years older and with even less upside.

Chang was a much better option for the role, because he had both offensive upside and is a better defender. But he broke his hand! It happens.

moondog80 · Jun 6, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Is he still good? Maybe it's just a temporary slump recently, but right now, through a third of the season, he's on pace for the worst ERA of his career (by half a run), the second worst ERA+, the second worst FIP, by far the worst WHIP (1.607 versus 0.953 lifetime), the most walks per inning, the least strikeouts per inning and, as a consequence of those last two, by far the worst K/W ratio he's ever posted. As noted above, he's being paid a lot for what seems like the decline phase of his career.

Fair, but also true that the Sox would be in a position to pay his salary, certainly for this year, and thus increase the return.

HangingW/ScottCooper · Jun 6, 2023

moondog80 said:
Nearly two months before the deadline so needless to say, a lot can happen, in either direction . But if they decide to sell....Jansen, Turner, Duvall, Paxton could all be in play for at least a Christian Vazquez-level return.. Maybe Sale if this shoulder thing is just a hiccup.

Worth noting that last year was such a buyer's market that guys like Carlos Rodon and Willson Contreras were shopped, but not traded. We 'll see if that's different this time around.

Do we attribute that to the expanded playoff rules?

Rovin Romine · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
When is too soon to be thinking about this?

In one sense, it's far too soon. The trade deadline is August 1, 56 calendar days from now.

The Sox have played 60 games and will play their 106th the day before the deadline. So that's 46 games, 9 turns through a 5 man rotation.

If they acquire around the deadline, they'll have 55-57 games or so to actually use those players before the season closes. (10 or 11 starts for a starter.)

It's worth remembering there are 3 wild card teams this year. Those 3 will play the worst (by record) division leader in two 3-game wild card series. The winner of WC1 and WC2 will play the best Division winner (D1). The winner of WC3 and D3 will play D2.

Right now the WC3 team (NYY) has a .590 WP. To get in couple-games-out striking range of that at the trade deadline, the Sox would have to go 30-15 or so.

But is .590 reasonable for the #6 team in the AL by the end of the season?
In 2022, the Rays held that spot at .531.
In 2021, the Jays held that spot at .562.

So the Sox going 26-19 or 28-17 seems far more doable. Not guaranteed, but doable.

moondog80 · Jun 6, 2023

HangingW/ScottCooper said:
Do we attribute that to the expanded playoff rules?

I think that, plus teams are valuing cost-controlled players more than ever.

grimshaw · Jun 6, 2023

Eh - the Rays make the Sox look like minor leaguers at times. After the initial sweep the Sox went 6-1-1 in the next 8 series and we all thought they were sneaky good. I'd like to see how they respond now. The last series was at least competitive, and the strength of the team (offense) let them down while the pitching held up pretty well.

Per fangraphs projected standings - the WC teams ahead of the Sox

Astros - 92
Yanks - 91
Jays - 87
O's - 86
Sox - 81

They have 36 games total remaining among those teams. They need to treat them like playoff games.

TomRicardo · Jun 6, 2023

Can anyone explain to me how this rotation looks anything like a team that could make a run in the playoffs? They have the 26th Best Starter ERA in major league baseball. Even if you try to say it is luck and look at their xFIP they are still only 10th in the league with 26th worst defense in the league.

There is nothing there.

This team needs to focus on getting Casas and Duran ABs, looking for solid bullpen arms from their formidable AAAA backlog, getting Whitlock, Bello, and Houck consistent starts.

Sale, Duvall, Jensen, Kike, Turner, Kluber, and Paxton can all go for whatever you can land. The only person they should be thinking about is a Verdugo extension or a sell high.

Ghost of Todd Benzinger · Jun 6, 2023

nvalvo said:
I love that your post is about how bad 30+ shortstops are and then you pitch us on Jose Iglesias, age 33. Obviously he doesn’t cost what the Correas and Seagers of the world cost, but that’s because he’s not, you know, good.

At one point, he was elite with the glove. That point was several years ago, when he was on the other side of 30.

So we’re looking at a roughly league average defensive shortstop (bad by some measures, ok by others) with the worst contact quality in the majors, who is dependent on BABIP luck and infield hits to eke out an 80 wRC+. In other words, he’s Pablo Reyes but four years older and with even less upside.

Chang was a much better option for the role, because he had both offensive upside and is a better defender. But he broke his hand! It happens.

Sigh. Completely missed my point. They could have signed Iglesias, or someone similar, to a one-year deal for a couple million. Not 10 years and 280 million! A slight difference, don't you think?

We're talking backup shortstops here to hold down the position and be decent until Story returns or Mayer is ready. Not All-Stars. Because All-Stars aren't available. And available shortstops, of course, aren't going to be great. They basically just need to stay healthy, catch the ball and hit .250. Kike can't catch the ball (well, technically throw it) or hit .250. But hey, at least he stays healthy!

Mondesi is always injured. Arroyo is always injured. Chang is a proven terrible hitter who has been let go by numerous teams, and often injured. Thus we're in the situation we're in. Because the genius Bloom has some weird affinity for injured players.

AB in DC · Jun 6, 2023

TomRicardo said:
Can anyone explain to me how this rotation looks anything like a team that could make a run in the playoffs? They have the 26th Best Starter ERA in major league baseball. Even if you try to say it is luck and look at their xFIP they are still only 10th in the league with 26th worst defense in the league.

There is nothing there.

This team needs to focus on getting Casas and Duran ABs, looking for solid bullpen arms from their formidable AAAA backlog, getting Whitlock, Bello, and Houck consistent starts.

Sale, Duvall, Jensen, Kike, Turner, Kluber, and Paxton can all go for whatever you can land. The only person they should be thinking about is a Verdugo extension or a sell high.

No need to sell anyone under team control for 2024. It's way too premature to write off next year.

That said, I wonder how much of June/July should be devoted to getting the young core more playing time vs. showcasing some expiring contracts for possible trade deadline deals. Wouldn't mind seeing Duvall, Kluber, and others could bring back.

grimshaw · Jun 6, 2023

TomRicardo said:
This team needs to focus on getting Casas and Duran ABs, looking for solid bullpen arms from their formidable AAAA backlog, getting Whitlock, Bello, and Houck consistent starts.

Sale, Duvall, Jensen, Kike, Turner, Kluber, and Paxton can all go for whatever you can land. The only person they should be thinking about is a Verdugo extension or a sell high.

Are they not focusing on these things? It's for sure not a playoff rotation, but they did just take two of some of the worst starters in baseball out of it.

Blizzard of 1978 · Jun 6, 2023

Why not put Whitlock and Houck back in the bullpen?

Philip Jeff Frye · Jun 6, 2023

Blizzard of 1978 said:
Why not put Whitlock and Houck back in the bullpen?

Who would replace them? Pivetta and Kluber? Chris Murphy?

At least think through the implications of what you are proposing rather than leaving us all dangling this this.

Blizzard of 1978 · Jun 6, 2023

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Who would replace them? Pivetta and Kluber? Chris Murphy?

At least think through the implications of what you are proposing rather than leaving us all dangling this this.

Well, since starters only go 5 innings now I thought Whitlock and Houck would be more beneficial to our Red Sox every few days.

AlNipper49 · Jun 6, 2023

I think that with the growing value in the minors that if the management decides that the outlook for making a run this year is unlikely that you can still moderately improve the prospects going forward by clearing room on the 40 for lottery tickets that don't expire for a few years.

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

Ghost of Todd Benzinger said:
Sigh. Completely missed my point. They could have signed Iglesias, or someone similar, to a one-year deal for a couple million. Not 10 years and 280 million! A slight difference, don't you think?

We're talking backup shortstops here to hold down the position and be decent until Story returns or Mayer is ready. Not All-Stars. Because All-Stars aren't available. And available shortstops, of course, aren't going to be great. They basically just need to stay healthy, catch the ball and hit .250. Kike can't catch the ball (well, technically throw it) or hit .250. But hey, at least he stays healthy!

Mondesi is always injured. Arroyo is always injured. Chang is a proven terrible hitter who has been let go by numerous teams, and often injured. Thus we're in the situation we're in. Because the genius Bloom has some weird affinity for injured players.

Chang had a 78 wRC+ last year. Iglesias had an 85. Chang is 6 years younger & a better & more versatile defender.

Chang has 0.2 fWAR this season. Iglesias has 0.0...because he hasn't made a major league roster. Chang makes $850k & is under team control for 2 more years.

Why would giving Iglesias or someone similar $2m be better? Because Chang had a fluke broken bone?

Hernandez had actually been a decent SS in the past. Now... not so much.

Like there are so many things one can actually criticize at least somewhat fairly... but not signing a 33 y/o minor league SS is not one of them. Batting .250 is not a meaningful thing because BA is not a meaningful stat.

Our 3B isn't hitting .250.

Of course, if you want a mediocre SS who is hitting .279, may I introduce you to Pablo Reyes?

grimshaw · Jun 6, 2023

To me, the critical decision is determining whether or not they want to trot out the best defensive alignment or continue with the status quo and leave Casas and Yoshida where they are.

I think the best overall balance of offense and defense they could trot out would be Duvall in left, Hernandez in center. Move Yoshida to DH while optioning Casas, Turner to 1b, Arroyo/Valdez at 2b and Chang at short.

The problem is, maybe they only improve by a game or two and still not net a playoff spot while potentially hurting Casas' development, and possibly not honoring Yoshida's agreement if he was promised left field.

They have to get Hernandez to CF. The net upgrade on defense alone is probably in the neighborhood of 5-10 runs not factoring moving him off SS and replacing him with Chang and eventually/potentially Story. There is too much value being lost otherwise.

grimshaw · Jun 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
not disagreeing… but what’s your plan with Duran here?

He's in the Ohtani deal (forgot about him).

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

What if we traded our top 6 "D" players for Ohtani & extended him to 10/$600m?

Devers
Duran
Drohan
Dalbec
Denlinger
Dearden

Max Power · Jun 6, 2023

JM3 said:
Batting .250 is not a meaningful thing because BA is not a meaningful stat.

Our 3B isn't hitting .250.

He kind of stinks right now, too.

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

Max Power said:
He kind of stinks right now, too.

Shhh don't tell the Angels.

The Gray Eagle · Jun 6, 2023

JM3 said:
What if we traded our top 6 "D" players for Ohtani & extended him to 10/$600m?

Devers
Duran
Drohan
Dalbec
Denlinger
Dearden

That's called playing 6-D chess while the other GMs are playing checkers.

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

The Gray Eagle said:
That's called playing 6-D chess while the other GMs are playing checkers.

Good post.

Nick Decker was offended not to make the original trade proposal...

View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1666234599595188229

JM3 · Jun 6, 2023

Might be our most untouchable D.

View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1666239455605276677

nvalvo · Jun 6, 2023

Ghost of Todd Benzinger said:
Sigh. Completely missed my point. They could have signed Iglesias, or someone similar, to a one-year deal for a couple million. Not 10 years and 280 million! A slight difference, don't you think?

We're talking backup shortstops here to hold down the position and be decent until Story returns or Mayer is ready. Not All-Stars. Because All-Stars aren't available. And available shortstops, of course, aren't going to be great. They basically just need to stay healthy, catch the ball and hit .250. Kike can't catch the ball (well, technically throw it) or hit .250. But hey, at least he stays healthy!

Mondesi is always injured. Arroyo is always injured. Chang is a proven terrible hitter who has been let go by numerous teams, and often injured. Thus we're in the situation we're in. Because the genius Bloom has some weird affinity for injured players.

I promise you I didn't.

JM3 said:
Chang had a 78 wRC+ last year. Iglesias had an 85. Chang is 6 years younger & a better & more versatile defender.

Chang has 0.2 fWAR this season. Iglesias has 0.0...because he hasn't made a major league roster. Chang makes $850k & is under team control for 2 more years.

Why would giving Iglesias or someone similar $2m be better? Because Chang had a fluke broken bone?

Hernandez had actually been a decent SS in the past. Now... not so much.

Like there are so many things one can actually criticize at least somewhat fairly... but not signing a 33 y/o minor league SS is not one of them. Batting .250 is not a meaningful thing because BA is not a meaningful stat.

Our 3B isn't hitting .250.

Of course, if you want a mediocre SS who is hitting .279, may I introduce you to Pablo Reyes?

What Pablo Reyes shows us is that a league average defensive SS with an ~80 wRC+ — i.e. more or less Iglesias' projection — is literally replacement level. If you need to, you can get one for cash considerations from the Las Vegas Aviators. In the offseason, you should try to find players with at least some upside.

grimshaw · Jun 7, 2023

It really has been a strange season:

Run differential vs each division so far:

AL East -7 (-21 vs the Rays but +14 vs the Jays)
AL Central +20 (yet to play the White Sox and Royals)
AL West 0 (yet to play Rangers, Stros and A's)

NL East -3 (yet to play the Mets, Marlins and Nats)
NL Central -8 (yet to play the Cubs)
NL West +4 (yet to play the Dodgers, Giants or Rockies)

The Rays, Cards and Pirates accounted for a -35. They are +39 vs everyone else.

Niastri · Jun 7, 2023

YTF said:
So we have a 5-7 week window between having a fair idea of what direction the team should take and moving in the correct path. I see Paxton as the best potential MLB chip, but so much depends on health and performance. IF he stays healthy and pitches like a #2 or 3 pitcher, that type of performance coupled with the remainder of his $4M contract (perhaps 1.3 -- 1.5) should make him quite attractive. I think Jansen is a different case. He'll have about 21M due to him meaning he's really going to have to be dominant to bring back a good return.

What would Jansen and $20 million be worth in prospects? We aren't trading him at full value, especially when we're already below the salary cap.

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