David Ortiz, Elder Batsman

Savin Hillbilly

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After last night's performance, Papi's numbers look pretty gaudy. He's got an excellent chance to top 30 HR and 100 RBI for the first time in three years, and if he heats up again he's got an outside shot at a second straight 1.000 OPS season.
 
If his 2013 ended today, it would be top 10 among all age-37 years in baseball history in OPS+, OPS, and SLG.
 
This made me stop and wonder, given the late start Papi got in terms of playing opportunities compared to most elite sluggers, how he would rank among all players for performance from age 27 (his first year with the Sox) through age 37. I used a 6000-PA minimum (David has 6464 in that stretch) to eliminate some of the guys who didn't play much past their early 30s, to keep it as apples-to-apples as possible.
 
In OPS+, he ranks 20th.
In SLG, 8th.
In HR, 10th.
In 2B, 9th.
In RBI, 10th.
 
Pretty remarkable stuff--there are a slew of HoFers below him on these lists. Makes me wonder what his numbers would look like if he had developed a little quicker (or alternatively, if the Twins had realized what they had a little sooner). Impossible to tell, of course--the extra mileage might have ended his career by now--but fun to speculate on. He's certainly becoming one of the great late-career hitters of all time.
 

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Boy, was I wrong about Papi in the off-season. I thought it unwise to not first hang a qualifying offer on him before going through the process of re-signing him. Then, I feared his lingering achilles injury would not end well -- perhaps that's still to come, but I'm thrilled to have been so wrong.
 

ivanvamp

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At what point do we start looking ahead to his next contract, after the 2014 season?  Is it too soon?
 

MakMan44

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ivanvamp said:
At what point do we start looking ahead to his next contract, after the 2014 season?  Is it too soon?
I think so. I love Papi but he is OLD. We have no clue what's going to happen next season, he could just start breaking down. 
 

JimD

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Any reason the Sox shouldn't offer a Wakefield-type contract to Ortiz?  I can't imagine anyone objecting to a possible one-year overpay at the end if his performance falls off a cliff, given that he's been on team-friendly deals pretty much his entire time with the Sox.
 

joe dokes

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JimD said:
Any reason the Sox shouldn't offer a Wakefield-type contract to Ortiz?  I can't imagine anyone objecting to a possible one-year overpay at the end if his performance falls off a cliff, given that he's been on team-friendly deals pretty much his entire time with the Sox.
 
In theory, yes. But Wake's eternal contract was for $5M/yr. I assume Ortiz's would be considerably larger, possibly large enough to make a difference as to whether the Sox would do it.
 
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I wouldn't have a problem with eternal $10M/yr options.  If he's anything remotely Papi-like, he'll earn them until the wheels truly fall off.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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MentalDisabldLst said:
I wouldn't have a problem with eternal $10M/yr options.  If he's anything remotely Papi-like, he'll earn them until the wheels truly fall off.
I would add that if he's Papi the person we think we know and the management knows him better than us, then I doubt he'll milk the Sox for ~10 MM per after it's clear he's cooked at the plate. If this is a concern in general, why didn't Wake keep collecting his $5 MM till this day?

I would be very happy as a fan if Papi was given this type of contract and an extra 10-15 MM for 1-1.5 years too long as a bonus for 2004 alone seems a pittance... In the grand scheme... But of course it's not my money
 

BucketOBalls

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Impressive stuff.  Remember when everyone was worried he was gonna take the Mo Vaughn path?   Glad that didn't happen.
 
It's actually an interesting question how much a dedicated DH is worth.  You lose a bit of flexiblity and the ability to rest players, but it's obvious worth it if you get a well above average bat.  A recurring 10M option sounds fine. You'll end up overpaying by 1 year, but for a franchise icon I don't consider that a big deal.
 
 
 
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This guy has to be a Hall-of-Famer, right?
 
He was arguably the most important hitter (there's an argument for Manny, of course) and clubhouse presence, on Red Sox teams that:
 
* went 7 games in the ALCS in 2003
* won the WS in 2004
* "tied for the division" in 2005
* won the division and WS in 2007
* went 7 games in the ALCS in 2008
* who knows what for 2013
 
He also has a reasonable chance at 2500 hits, and 500 HR's.  Has the Red Sox single-season HR record.  He's it.  He's the face of the winning Red Sox teams we now get to enjoy.  This is what a Hall-of-Famer looks like.
 
The one thing that disappoints me is that there is no one in the media, or Boston media, that will clarify his involvement in those leaked PED tests.  He did NOT test positive for steroids.  It was an inconclusive test which led Ortiz to wonder if he was being sloppy with some over-the-counter supplements.  These are the facts.  Yet, everyone wags the PED finger at him.  In fact, recently I was driving up to New Hampshire and I was listening to Mutt & Merloni.  This was after the A-Rod plunking.  A Yankee fan called up crying that the Red Sox were being hypocritical because Ortiz is on this team.  Mutt & Merloni's response?  "OK.  He took steroids.  But the reason this is different is because ...."  See, it's become common gospel.  Call me an apologist, but I don't think this is a certainty at all.  In addition, I'm one to believe him.
 

bankshot1

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This guy has to be a Hall-of-Famer, right?
 
 
Francesa routinely dumps on Ortiz as a PED-cheater, despite the fact he did not test postive for steroids, but for some unknown substance. And while MLB apologized for leaking the list and acknowledging that all those named did not test postitve for steroids, giving Ortiz cover, I think the doubt and media attacks works against him in most parts of the country and probably a lot of HoF voters. 
 
If ever a DH deserves a real shot at HoF immortatilty its Ortiz.
 

Ramon AC

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I love Papi. He has 40.4 fWAR so far in his career. Edgar Martinez has 65.6. Papi has played 261 games at 1B, Edgar played 564 at 3B and 28 at 1B. Edgar has a career OPS+ of 147, Papi at 139.
 
Papi's not done, he has the rings and the walkoffs and the personality, but also PED baggage fair or not. If I'm King of the HoF, Edgar goes in before Papi.
 

smastroyin

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I was going to mention in the Helton thread that putting Helton in does open the door a bit for a guy like Ortiz.
 
That said, his career started a little too late.  If he does manage to play three more years at a level close to this, that gives him 12 really good years and that might be enough, just phased about 4 years later than most HoF types.  The reason I think he needs the three years is to get those counting stats up.  Right now, here are some of his ranks and my comments:
 
AVG:  .287 (452) This is going to hurt him.  We all know that AVG isn't the be-all, end-all, but as a DH only the fact that he's not above the magic .300 line will count against him even though more and more the BBWAA understand the fallacy of AVG.
OBP:  .381 (162) Much better rank that the AVG but not elite given his era (as opposed to if he played in the 60's and 70's)
SLG:  .549 (26)  Here he is elite but will be hurt again by era (for instance he is 6th among active players and 12th among contemporaries, and if he drops even to .540 that puts him below another half dozen)
OPS:  .930 (28)  If we consider this the new AVG then he looks pretty good here.  Again, though, a lot of SLG driven contemporaries right around this number.
Hits:  2001 (275)  There are plenty of guys ahead of him and not very many behind him among HoF.  I would call this a minimum requirement in this era.  
2B:  512 (50)  Again, hardly surprising that he ranks this high on a power stat.  But, there are a bunch of guys with 500 2B that aren't in, and probably shouldnt be (e.g. Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Abreu)
HR:  427 (46)  Ditto above, if you think this is high enough to get him in almost on its own, then you think that about  Konerko, Canseco, Giambi, Dunn etc.
 
However, if he can play a few more years ratcheting up his accumulative stats (getting to 500 HR would be key, getting to 2500 H and 550 2B would help) without dropping significantly in rate states, he has a pretty good chance.
 
The steroid thing could be important to his legacy.  If he had never had that attachment, then you could argue that his ranks among contemporaries should be exaggerated (see Helton discussion).  Still, would you put Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado in the Hall of Fame?  To me those are two guys who right now are closest to him in Hall of Fame numbers and they don't have any steroid scandal around them either.  Ortiz does get a boost for his walk-off and big stage performances but they are pretty far in the past for voters to really consider.  If he has a 2013 post-season that looks like his 2004 post-season, then it may come into consideration.  It also would have helped if he had done something like hit 2 HR off of Garza in 2008 to send the Red Sox to the World Series that year.  Instead, his comparitively weak bat was a big reason the Sox lost that series.
 

bankshot1

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I didn't mean to slight Martinez, (poor choice of words) I think EM belongs in the HoF (and in his first few years of voting he's gotten about 36% of the vote) but my argument was more thats it seems theres no place in the HoF for DHs. 
 

Savin Hillbilly

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smastroyin said:
It also would have helped if he had done something like hit 2 HR off of Garza in 2008 to send the Red Sox to the World Series that year.  Instead, his comparitively weak bat was a big reason the Sox lost that series.
 
Overall this is fair, but his one big hit in that series was a huge one. Even when he sucks in the postseason, he manages to find ways to work in clutch dramatics.
 

smastroyin

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Overall this is fair, but his one big hit in that series was a huge one. Even when he sucks in the postseason, he manages to find ways to work in clutch dramatics.
 
Oh I remember it well.  I was lucky enough to be at that game.  
 
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smastroyin said:
Instead, his comparitively weak bat was a big reason the Sox lost that series.
 
The 2008 where he had that wrist injury?  I really don't hold it against him.
 
And let's make no mistake, his counting stats have been hurt by the wrist injury and the achilles issue.  But let's say he falls short of 2500 hits and 500 HR's.  Was he not, for these past 11 years as a Red Sox, a dominant force.  The cleanup hitter on World Series winning teams.  The face of the franchise.  A face of baseball, really.  Uh-oh, I'm starting to sound like a Jim Rice apologist (no offense), and could get killed for saying this, but one of the "most feared" hitters in all of baseball?  Yes, "The Fear!!1".  For 11 years, and possibly more.  That's why I think for Papi, who is more of a power hitter than say an Edgar Martinez, 500 HR's is more important than the hits.  And of course, any mention of Papi does not preclude Edgar as being a HOFer.  Edgar Martinez should be in the HOF and it shouldn't even be a discussion.  And if you look at Edgar, it gives me hope that Ortiz can do his thing until 40 (294/412/507 for his age 38-40 seasons).
 
This could also be similar to Dwight Evans, or even Edgar, who "got it" later in his career.  It's hard for me to articulate, but these guys that start a little later, maybe it's because of some development issues within the organization (for example, Ortiz' Twins years), or they went to college, played four years, and didn't get called up until they were approaching say 25, or whatever the reason, players like this seem to have a distinct disadvantage.  No matter how good of a 10 year stretch, they are going to run into their decline years before it's too late.  Especially middle of the line-up hitters who have a great eye and will walk a lot (hence, hit numbers might not accumulate as fast as a OBP guy who relies more on average).  Is Hall-Of-Famers only those that start early enough that they can start logging the counting stats?
 
I don't know.  It's tough.  And as I mentioned, maybe someone can articulate what I'm trying to say in a better way, but "watching this guy on a daily basis" (uh oh, here we go with one of those arguments that could be taunted mercilessly, and yes, I'm sure I'm absolutely biased), the guy is an absolute icon.  He's Papi!
 

The Derek Lowe Face

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Does anyone else remember the days when Ortiz's nickname on these forums was the "Dominican Daubach"?  It's amazing how far his career has come since then, although I do miss his other nickname (Flo).  Credit to Eric Van who did one of his epic studies at the time hailing the signing.  Even EV must be surprised at how the last 10 years turned out.
 

smastroyin

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My point is not that a single weak playoff series counts against him (Reggie Jackson was mostly just ok in the post-season after the 78 World Series) but that having yet another huge memory would count for him.
 
Here's an amazing David Ortiz stat.  Partly because of playing time, but mostly because he was hitting a ton of 2B instead, he only had 4 HR at the end of June in 2003.
 

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He is also helped -- in comparison to comparable counting stats sluggers like Delgado and Konerko -- with five top 5 MVP years, and 9 All-Star seasons.  Any chance he rings up another top-5 MVP year this year?  I kind of doubt it, but he may get top 10, and a big Septmebr could move him into top 5 (and by top 5, I mean 4 or 5, I don't see him bumping Trout, Cabrera or Davis).
 

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smastroyin said:
 
Here's an amazing David Ortiz stat.  Partly because of playing time, but mostly because he was hitting a ton of 2B instead, he only had 4 HR at the end of June in 2003.
 
His 2003 stats were so back-loaded that I distinctly remember being worried that his power was an illusion or perhaps a one-time surge that we would never see again.  I stopped worrying about six weeks into the 2004 season.
 

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BucketOBalls said:
It's actually an interesting question how much a dedicated DH is worth.  You lose a bit of flexiblity and the ability to rest players, but it's obvious worth it if you get a well above average bat.
 
 
I've always felt that DH should be treated as an actual position. He is essentially pinch hitting 4 times a game, and most players who rotate through the DH position hit worse when not engaged with the game; they essentially suffer the PH penalty when DHing. I also think that the idea of rotating guys through the DH slot never really works in practice. You either penalize your best hitters, or have guys who could use a full day off still hitting and running the bases. The fact that Tiz hits better as a DH makes him a bit more valuable since he can be relied on to drive the offense.
 

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The Derek Lowe Face said:
Does anyone else remember the days when Ortiz's nickname on these forums was the "Dominican Daubach"?  It's amazing how far his career has come since then, although I do miss his other nickname (Flo).  Credit to Eric Van who did one of his epic studies at the time hailing the signing.  Even EV must be surprised at how the last 10 years turned out.
 
I don't.  Neither do you.  If you use the search function you'll find the term has only ever been used once on this board, in your post (and now a second time, quoted here by me).
 
Maybe on the Remy Report?
 
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In his defense, these forums contain few posts prior to 2005 due to the migration and server crash.
 

Rovin Romine

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BucketOBalls said:
Impressive stuff.  Remember when everyone was worried he was gonna take the Mo Vaughn path?   Glad that didn't happen.
 
It's actually an interesting question how much a dedicated DH is worth.  You lose a bit of flexiblity and the ability to rest players, but it's obvious worth it if you get a well above average bat.  A recurring 10M option sounds fine. You'll end up overpaying by 1 year, but for a franchise icon I don't consider that a big deal.
 
 
 
Vaughn's bad knee was his undoing.  http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1718415%C2
 
Vaughn was injured in his age 33 year and retired during his age 35 year.   He was a decent player ages 31, 32, 34, but never came close to his Red Sox years in terms of production.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vaughmo01.shtml%C2
 
While you can argue that Vaughn's body type might have led to the knee problems (or general trouble rehabbing), Ortiz was clearly on the Vaughn path until his resurgence/weight loss.   Not very scientific, but to my eye/memory, Ortiz looks like he's carrying less weight than he did when he had his injuries.  
 
You have to wonder how Vaughn would have held up if he had better conditioning. 
 

Sampo Gida

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Savin Hillbilly said:
This made me stop and wonder, given the late start Papi got in terms of playing opportunities compared to most elite sluggers, how he would rank among all players for performance from age 27 (his first year with the Sox) through age 37. I used a 6000-PA minimum (David has 6464 in that stretch) to eliminate some of the guys who didn't play much past their early 30s, to keep it as apples-to-apples as possible.
 
In OPS+, he ranks 20th.
In SLG, 8th.
In HR, 10th.
In 2B, 9th.
In RBI, 10th.
 
Pretty remarkable stuff--there are a slew of HoFers below him on these lists. Makes me wonder what his numbers would look like if he had developed a little quicker (or alternatively, if the Twins had realized what they had a little sooner). Impossible to tell, of course--the extra mileage might have ended his career by now--but fun to speculate on. He's certainly becoming one of the great late-career hitters of all time.
 
Papi had 1642 PA from age 22-26 with 57 HR and a 108 OPS+ with the Twins.  So I would not say he did not have opportunity.  As for his late development, I know Yaz did not really develop his power until his age 27 season.  He credited an offseason of strength conditioning for the power boost.
 

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Tom Kelly ran those Twins with an iron fist. He loved "Scrappy" guys, defense and smallball. Ortiz seemed to be a guy who Kelly sat quite a bit. He only cracked 100 games twice, and maxed out at 130. He was barely a full-time player in two of those 5 years. Hard to get consistent ABs when you start 85 games a year.
 
One of the stories that came out very soon after Ortiz came to Boston was that he was not allowed to swing for the fences (that's a more recent article on it). He was expected to make productive outs with runners on and push runners up a base. A groundout to second got more praise than a long fly. If I recall, Ortiz liked being in a lineup where he was free to take his chances. 
 

Sampo Gida

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JGray38 said:
Tom Kelly ran those Twins with an iron fist. He loved "Scrappy" guys, defense and smallball. Ortiz seemed to be a guy who Kelly sat quite a bit. He only cracked 100 games twice, and maxed out at 130. He was barely a full-time player in two of those 5 years. Hard to get consistent ABs when you start 85 games a year.
 
One of the stories that came out very soon after Ortiz came to Boston was that he was not allowed to swing for the fences (that's a more recent article on it). He was expected to make productive outs with runners on and push runners up a base. A groundout to second got more praise than a long fly. If I recall, Ortiz liked being in a lineup where he was free to take his chances. 
 
From 2000-2002 with the Twins Ortiz was pretty much a regular player, playing 130 and 125 games in 2000 and 2002 .  His playing time was cut in 2001 to 89 games because he was on the DL for about 6 weeks with a wrist fracture. In 2003 with the Red Sox he had only had 43 more PA than in 2002.. He also had knee issues in 2002 that may have had an impact on his power.
 
A wrist fracture in 1998 also sent him to the DL and hurt his power in the 2nd half. An awful ST in 1999 got him sent down for the season, so perhaps there were some lingering issues from the wrist, altheough he hit well in the PCL (who doesnt).   
 
If you look at pics from the day you can see he got a lot stronger as he aged, which is typical for many hitters who reach their peak power numbers around 27-28.
 
The fact that Papi was in a much more potent lineup that made starters work harder and got to the bullpen earlier,  and the better hitting parks in the AL east,  may have contributed some as well.
 
I won't say the Twins managers influence had no effect on his power numbers, but suggest this may be overstated, and other stuff like injuries, physical strength, team, park and experience had more to do with the power differential between the Red Sox and Twins.
 

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I love Ortiz and what he's done for the Red Sox, but Edgar Martinez deserves a shot at the Hall of Fame (and will eventually get it, in my opinion) before Ortiz does. Incidentally, he was also a late starter, but basically crushed the ball until his 40s. His career league-adjusted numbers (pick whatever) are slightly higher than Ortiz's and he played the field for his first six (injury-riddled) seasons.
 
Once Hall of Fame voters get over their idiotic hitch about voting in designated hitters, Martinez goes in for sure. Ortiz is next in line.
 

Devizier

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As for the perpetual contract idea, I would keep paying Ortiz his current $13M/year for as long as he can keep it up. That's if he'd agree to the deal. I don't see him taking $10M when he's been worth more than that in this era's dollars for pretty much his entire Red Sox career. Just because you're a franchise icon doesn't mean you're going to take too much of a hit. Just ask Derek Jeter.
 

Sampo Gida

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I think if you are the top 1-2 DH of All Time, and that's 40 years, you should be in the HOF.
 
Its not that Papi can't and won't play 1B, its that the team chose to use him at DH, having other options,  Besides, some HOF'ers  were actually below average fielders and actually hurt their team in the field, but their poor fielding is overshadowed by their offense.  While some may argue his offense gets a boost at DH, some might argue many players have trouble at DH.
 

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DH is a recognized position, and a good DH can contribute to a team's wins as much as a slugging 1B.  The fact that Edgar Martinez is not in the Hall ranges from just plain stupid to a true travesty.  Unfortunately, too many voters are Cafardo types that look solely at the counting stats and see 309 HR's and 1261 RBI's and draw the wrong conclusion, shunning a guy with 58 more OBP points than Kirby Puckett. 
 
IMO, the best of both worlds would be that Ortiz keeps slugging away until he's 41 or 42.  That would give him 4 more seasons, and 4 more chances to put up gaudy offensive numbers.  If he's able to do that (and that's a HUGE if), then he would be a serious candidate, and it may even give Martinez enough love among the voters to put him over the top as well.  
 

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I think injuries should count against players.  You go in the Hall for what you did, not what might have been.  There are a few exceptions, such as the guys who went to various wars.  
 
I mean sure, it's fun to speculate.  But even if 2008-2010 had smoothly connected his 2007 (332/445/621, 52 2B, 35 HR) to his 2011 (309/398/554, 40 2B, 29 HR) he would have a career line like 295/395/560 and another 30 2B and 10 HR.  Have him healthy for all of last year and assume he just keeps up his amazing season and add another 10 2B and 10 HR.  He'd still look an awful lot like Konerko on accumulation and Delgado on rates and I'm already giving him credit for being a 1B by making that comparison.  
 

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I've been thinking about Ortiz and the HOF on and off since his awesome walk off shot earlier in the season - the one when Pedey was IBBed in order to pitch to Ortiz - a sign of Ron Washington (it was the Rangers right?) being a crazy person.

I've read the arguments here and elsewhere.

I've come to a realization that makes me rather sad - I don't really care all that much.

While the Hall of Fame the Museum still holds a great deal of interest to me - I have never been and would love to go - the rest has lost a lot of its allure for me. It's the voters. Over the past few years, they've just frustrated me over and over again. The refusal to aknowledge the DH as its own thing, the rejection of modern metrics, the constant refrain of nebulous subjective concepts like "he was the most feared", the inane moves of leaving a worthy candidate off a ballot simply to prevent a first ballot entry, and so on. I recently reread a bunch of FJM Hall of Fame related posts and couldn't beleive that the writers being mocked had actual votes.

The final straw, I think, was the whole Year of No Entrants thing.

I'm actually more looking forward to seeing Papi's number retired (which it almost certainly will be - the ownership won't pass up a marketing opportunity like that, plus I think it's the right call), then seeing if he gets in the Hall.
 

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Lose Remerswaal said:
I don't.  Neither do you.  If you use the search function you'll find the term has only ever been used once on this board, in your post (and now a second time, quoted here by me).
 
Maybe on the Remy Report?
  
MentalDisabldLst said:
In his defense, these forums contain few posts prior to 2005 due to the migration and server crash.
And to be fair to Lose, I searched on an archived site and couldn't find any direct mentions of this, so I was wrong to attribute it to SoSH. However, the comparison wasn't unreasonable at the time. The two had very comparable offensive numbers in the three seasons before Ortiz signed with the Red Sox, and Ortiz was expected to play the same role as Dauber (part-time 1B and lefty bat off the bench). I think most people expected similar production from Ortiz but thought he had more upside (2003 was his age 27 season, Daubach's age 31).

I think that moniker would have been a little clever for The Remy Report. We can agree that Flo was his nickname here, and a brilliant one.
 

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Even if he retires tomorrow, if Ortiz doesn't make the Hall within the first 5 years of eligibility, I will never visit the place again. By any metric used to induct many of the players that made it despite compressed primes, he qualifies. And, his prime becomes less and less compressed every year he remains one of the 10 best hitters in the game.
 

Al Zarilla

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Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the Red Sox and I love him, but, isn't the compressed prime argument usually made about wars, or other events far out of the control of the player? With Ortiz, he wasn't being used enough by his manager in Minnesota, so couldn't the argument could be made that he wasn't clearly superior and didn't warrant starting all the time? I didn't see him play at all for Minny. His hitting stats were pretty good though. 
 

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Al Zarilla said:
Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the Red Sox and I love him, but, isn't the compressed prime argument usually made about wars, or other events far out of the control of the player? With Ortiz, he wasn't being used enough by his manager in Minnesota, so couldn't the argument could be made that he wasn't clearly superior and didn't warrant starting all the time? I didn't see him play at all for Minny. His hitting stats were pretty good though. 
 
Kirby Puckett and Sandy Koufax only played 12 years.
 
He actually was used a lot by his manager when he was on the 25 man roster for Minny, it was injuries that cut  most of his playing time.  Missed one 1 yr by being sent to the minors that may have been the managers decision due to a run in and an awful ST.
 
Anyways, Papi has shown he is far from finished,  3 more solid years and he could break the 500 HR mark which seems to be a magic number for the writers. 
 

Niastri

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I think Ortiz will need a few years to accumulate counting stats before he can be close to a first ballot Hall of Famer on most of the writers ballots.  However, I think the postseason of 2004 will weigh very heavily on the nebulous "fame" meters most of the old codger type writers still carry around with them.
 
As for counting stats, DHs seem to be compared to first basemen when figuring their value in the same old school minds... Home runs, rbi, doubles, walks and runs seem to be his primary counting stats that will get him to the Hall.  Breaking down each stat:
 
Stargell and Musial both have 475 homers, tied for 14th among 1st basemen (Ernie Banks makes these lists, even though he wasn't a primary first basemen for the most valuable years of his career. This seems to be a common issue with the Fangraphs sorting I am using.  Several players I don't think of as first basemen make the lists, having played enough first base later in their careers.).  The only players with more who are not in the Hall are Fred McGriff and active or steroid tainted players.  Ortiz needs 48 or about 2 seasons at his recent production to hit this threshold.  A third season of 25 homers gets him to the nearly sure fire mark of 500.  However, 500 no longer seems as sure as it once did, considering the taint on the recent era in the minds of the Hall voters.
 
Stargell and McGriff again set the lower boundary, this time for RBI.  Stargell's 1540 get him in, McGriff's 1550 do not.  Again, steroids keep some players out.  Ortiz needs 134, again 2 seasons or less remaining.
 
Doubles seem to be strange stat, since most first basemen are judged on home run power instead of doubles.  Few players with at least 550 doubles are not in the hall, and many with fewer have made it.  With two more good years, Ortiz will be around 575 (conservatively) and easily meet this threshold.  Not a single player with 575 is left out of the Hall for baseball reasons.  Bonds, Rose, and Palmeiro are the only ones left out.  This seems less of an indicator, as all the HOF players with 550 doubles seem to have strong resumes otherwise.  Edgar Martinez was at 514. 
 
In walks, the threshold for HOF seems to be set at 1600 or, a number Ortiz cannot attain.  It seems to be a week indicator, since Eddie Yost and Darrell Evans are both out and are in the top 12 all time.  1400 Seems to be a softer indicator, with 18 of those 28 over 1400 in the Hall.  Five more are inelible due to cheating (Rose, Bonds) or recent activity.  BB seem to matter far less than the rest of your resume.  I would have removed analysis of this stat, but I actually thought walking was one of Ortiz's positives, but it appears will be irrelevant towards his case.  He would need 323 to get to 1400, or 5 additional seasons at his current rate of walking.
 
Runs are another common power hitter stat.  At about 1500 the vast majority of players get into the hall.  Ortiz needs 307 to get to 1500 or about 4 seasons at his recent rates.
 
Ortiz is hurt perhaps by his lower batting average of .287, his steroid rumors, his late start into HOF type production, and his role as a DH.  He is undoubtedly helped by his performance on two World Series winners and his tremendous play in the post season.  His 2004 post season in particular was outstanding. 
 
By measure of Fame alone, Ortiz is a no doubt inductee.  By the standards of sheer long standing excellence, he might be close, and depends on how much longer he can keep going.  If he has three more seasons like this one and/or is a heroic presence in another post season, it will start to seem like a foregone conclusion before he is done.  If he gets old quickly and fades or gets injured, he probably will linger on the ballot 15 years and either be a late inductee or miss the Hall.
 
He seems to have found the fountain of youth and seems primed for another shot at a postseason run.  A Sox World Series victory, with Ortiz as their best hitter, would push him over the top.
 

JGray38

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Back to the Twins; Maxed out at 109 games started in MN (2000) with a fair number of PH appearances to get him to 120-130. A lot of games, sure. But when you only start 107 games with a 120 OPS+ (2002) there's a fair chance you're being underutilized. That's what people are remembering.
 

Sampo Gida

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Aug 7, 2010
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JGray38 said:
Back to the Twins; Maxed out at 109 games started in MN (2000) with a fair number of PH appearances to get him to 120-130. A lot of games, sure. But when you only start 107 games with a 120 OPS+ (2002) there's a fair chance you're being underutilized. That's what people are remembering.
 
He missed 22 games in 2002 due to arthroscopic surgery on his knee, and coupled with 2 separate fractured wrists in other years, he lost a good chunk of playing time during his time with the Twins.
 
He only had a 637 OPS against LHP'ers in 2002, so was benched against some tough LHP'ers.
 
Missing games due to injury or poor performance (against LHP'ers) is not being underutilized.  Despite being healthy in 2003, he only made 10 more starts than in 2002.
 

threecy

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Sep 1, 2006
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Niastri said:
I think Ortiz will need a few years to accumulate counting stats before he can be close to a first ballot Hall of Famer on most of the writers ballots.  However, I think the postseason of 2004 will weigh very heavily on the nebulous "fame" meters most of the old codger type writers still carry around with them.
 
As for counting stats, DHs seem to be compared to first basemen when figuring their value in the same old school minds... Home runs, rbi, doubles, walks and runs seem to be his primary counting stats that will get him to the Hall.  Breaking down each stat:
 
Stargell and Musial both have 475 homers, tied for 14th among 1st basemen (Ernie Banks makes these lists, even though he wasn't a primary first basemen for the most valuable years of his career. This seems to be a common issue with the Fangraphs sorting I am using.  Several players I don't think of as first basemen make the lists, having played enough first base later in their careers.).  The only players with more who are not in the Hall are Fred McGriff and active or steroid tainted players.  Ortiz needs 48 or about 2 seasons at his recent production to hit this threshold.  A third season of 25 homers gets him to the nearly sure fire mark of 500.  However, 500 no longer seems as sure as it once did, considering the taint on the recent era in the minds of the Hall voters.
 
Stargell and McGriff again set the lower boundary, this time for RBI.  Stargell's 1540 get him in, McGriff's 1550 do not.  Again, steroids keep some players out.  Ortiz needs 134, again 2 seasons or less remaining.
 
Doubles seem to be strange stat, since most first basemen are judged on home run power instead of doubles.  Few players with at least 550 doubles are not in the hall, and many with fewer have made it.  With two more good years, Ortiz will be around 575 (conservatively) and easily meet this threshold.  Not a single player with 575 is left out of the Hall for baseball reasons.  Bonds, Rose, and Palmeiro are the only ones left out.  This seems less of an indicator, as all the HOF players with 550 doubles seem to have strong resumes otherwise.  Edgar Martinez was at 514. 
 
In walks, the threshold for HOF seems to be set at 1600 or, a number Ortiz cannot attain.  It seems to be a week indicator, since Eddie Yost and Darrell Evans are both out and are in the top 12 all time.  1400 Seems to be a softer indicator, with 18 of those 28 over 1400 in the Hall.  Five more are inelible due to cheating (Rose, Bonds) or recent activity.  BB seem to matter far less than the rest of your resume.  I would have removed analysis of this stat, but I actually thought walking was one of Ortiz's positives, but it appears will be irrelevant towards his case.  He would need 323 to get to 1400, or 5 additional seasons at his current rate of walking.
 
Runs are another common power hitter stat.  At about 1500 the vast majority of players get into the hall.  Ortiz needs 307 to get to 1500 or about 4 seasons at his recent rates.
 
Ortiz is hurt perhaps by his lower batting average of .287, his steroid rumors, his late start into HOF type production, and his role as a DH.  He is undoubtedly helped by his performance on two World Series winners and his tremendous play in the post season.  His 2004 post season in particular was outstanding. 
 
By measure of Fame alone, Ortiz is a no doubt inductee.  By the standards of sheer long standing excellence, he might be close, and depends on how much longer he can keep going.  If he has three more seasons like this one and/or is a heroic presence in another post season, it will start to seem like a foregone conclusion before he is done.  If he gets old quickly and fades or gets injured, he probably will linger on the ballot 15 years and either be a late inductee or miss the Hall.
 
He seems to have found the fountain of youth and seems primed for another shot at a postseason run.  A Sox World Series victory, with Ortiz as their best hitter, would push him over the top.
Jeff Bagwell's candidacy has been dogged by 'rumors' without any evidence aside from body size and production.  David Ortiz has an alleged positive test.  He probably won't be up for a vote for another decade, but if the voting started today, I don't think he'd have much of a chance.
 

nvalvo

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JGray38 said:
Back to the Twins; Maxed out at 109 games started in MN (2000) with a fair number of PH appearances to get him to 120-130. A lot of games, sure. But when you only start 107 games with a 120 OPS+ (2002) there's a fair chance you're being underutilized. That's what people are remembering.
 
In 2029, we'll be wistfully discussing Mike Carp's 73 games at a 146 OPS+ in 2013. 
 

NatetheGreat

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Aug 27, 2007
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This guy has to be a Hall-of-Famer, right?
 
He was arguably the most important hitter (there's an argument for Manny, of course) and clubhouse presence, on Red Sox teams that:
 
* went 7 games in the ALCS in 2003
* won the WS in 2004
* "tied for the division" in 2005
* won the division and WS in 2007
* went 7 games in the ALCS in 2008
* who knows what for 2013
 
Being a major part of some great teams and iconic moments will help put him over the top if he can make a really strong borderline case, but I don't think he's there yet.