Daniel Theis: More beast per-pound

lovegtm

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Don’t forget about one Aron Baynes who also has a two year $10M deal. ;)
The Celtics would love to have Baynes, but Theis is a better value right now and I don't think it's that close. He has a lot of extra length and isn't 33 and constantly breaking down.
 

NomarsFool

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There was a long stretch was Kanter was very effective, but it's been awhile now where he hasn't. He had some injury bugs here and there, so that might be part of it. It seems like Theis has really come on strong during this middle third of the season, and TimeLord has also played well. Very now and then Kanter is getting in there, but it doesn't seem like he's been as effective on the offensive end as he was earlier in the season. I feel like he's been missing a lot of his low post shots, where he was automatic earlier in the season.
 

benhogan

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There was a long stretch was Kanter was very effective, but it's been awhile now where he hasn't. He had some injury bugs here and there, so that might be part of it. It seems like Theis has really come on strong during this middle third of the season, and TimeLord has also played well. Very now and then Kanter is getting in there, but it doesn't seem like he's been as effective on the offensive end as he was earlier in the season. I feel like he's been missing a lot of his low post shots, where he was automatic earlier in the season.
Yes. Kanter hasn't been the same since he injured his hip. He's hobbled and trying to play through it. It's been glaring. Points/rebounds down since the beginning of Feb (when he returned from the injury)

Since his game is predicated on moving guys around down low to get boards he needs to be 100% to be effective.

Baynes/Theis/RWill would be a great big rotation. Large improvement over Kanter.
I like Kanter and wouldn't be opposed to Danny bringing him back along with signing Baynes on the cheap. Keep TL around (for $2MM/yr) and see if he can stay healthy and add value, but don't want to count on him to play important minutes. Theis is already signed and coming back.

These centers are so cheap, 3-4 vets each under $5MM/yr are worth it. Rotating them on short minutes keeps them fresh and active over the course of a long season.

Au revoir VP
 
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chilidawg

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Is it just me or has VP at least looked like he has some promise? Tough to tell from such limited minutes, but he's big and reasonably mobile, with a decent looking perimeter shot. I wonder how he's fared in practice? Judging from playing time maybe not.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Is it just me or has VP at least looked like he has some promise? Tough to tell from such limited minutes, but he's big and reasonably mobile, with a decent looking perimeter shot. I wonder how he's fared in practice? Judging from playing time maybe not.
He’s no Faverani, at least.
 

chilidawg

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Great piece in the Athletic about Theis and his use in the short roll game. "So it’s no surprise to see that among the 28 bigs who have scored or shot or assisted on at least 500 possessions this season, Theis ranks fifth in points per possession and fourth in assist to turnover ratio. That latter group consists of Al Horford, Nikola Vucevic and Nikola Jokic, the league’s best short roll playmakers. He’s even one spot ahead of Bam Adebayo in that category, who became an All-Star mostly because of his work in the short roll this season. Theis doesn’t have the great finishing capability these other current or former All-Stars do, but clearly he is playmaking at a near All-Star level."

https://theathletic.com/1892023/2020/06/25/celtics-playbook-series-daniel-theis-is-mastering-the-11-short-roll/?source=dailyemail
 

scottyno

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On the latest Enis Kanter podcast he said Theis looks in much better shape and stronger than he was even before the season was suspended. Look out Embiid!
 

InstaFace

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The Is gets some love from Jared Weiss for his long-suffering refereeing woes:

https://theathletic.com/2051026/2020/09/08/in-the-face-of-continued-aggression-daniel-theis-and-celtics-hold-firm/?source=dailyemail
snippet (minus video clips):

The game got a bit sloppy for a few minutes as Marc Gasol and Theis returned to the game, but the Celtics were moving the ball well and started chipping away. Before they knew it, the lead was back up to 21. Then something truly remarkable happened.

Theis was screening for Smart when he began to roll and Anunoby hooked his arm. Theis threw up his arms to sell the call — and actually got it. The irony that Theis flopped to sell a call in front of Smart was just too rich. The moment seemed to unlock his confidence, maybe reminding him that he lives in a world of justice. He went from begging in pain to arguing with the judge, walking up to the official and stating that VanVleet jumped into him and he should be allowed to move with his hands up in the air.

His self-advocacy seemed to register, as he blocked Anunoby from behind on the very next play on what could have been called a foul but wasn’t. Theis immediately sprinted down the court behind Wanamaker, who led the way with the ball, forcing VanVleet to sink off Smart on the elbow and give up a wide-open 3. What had shrunk to a 12-point lead ballooned to 26 points in just a few minutes, as shown in this NBA Stats lead tracker, with Theis and the Celtics’ triple-guard attack leading the way.

 

Koufax

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Theis had a good series all around against the Raptors, despite fouling out in game 7. I have a question about him: How is it that he never got drafted by an NBA team? Isn't that a little weird? Clearly a great find by Danny, but why did everyone miss on him?
 

slamminsammya

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Theis had a good series all around against the Raptors, despite fouling out in game 7. I have a question about him: How is it that he never got drafted by an NBA team? Isn't that a little weird? Clearly a great find by Danny, but why did everyone miss on him?
I think he played several years in Europe and developed there, but wasn't really a prospect when he was draft age. Not certain though.
 

lovegtm

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I think he played several years in Europe and developed there, but wasn't really a prospect when he was draft age. Not certain though.
It even took him 2 years in the NBA to really belong. The leap he took at his age is insanely impressive.
 

BroodsSexton

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What do the statistics say about Theis? Is he...good? I feel like I watch him stand around and play very little defense, get caught on bad switches, and struggle to grab anything but easy rebounds. Williams definitely looks a little bit lost from time to time as well, but my eyes tell me he has a more valuable presence when he’s in the game. I recognize this is oversimplifying things, but ... is Theis good?
 

BigSoxFan

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What do the statistics say about Theis? Is he...good? I feel like I watch him stand around and play very little defense, get caught on bad switches, and struggle to grab anything but easy rebounds. Williams definitely looks a little bit lost from time to time as well, but my eyes tell me he has a more valuable presence when he’s in the game. I recognize this is oversimplifying things, but ... is Theis good?
He‘s definitely good but he hasn’t been his best during this series. Bam has a lot to do with that. Still irritates me that Riley found 2 foundational players in the 13-14 range. Just an amazing job by their team.
 

DannyDarwinism

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What do the statistics say about Theis? Is he...good? I feel like I watch him stand around and play very little defense, get caught on bad switches, and struggle to grab anything but easy rebounds. Williams definitely looks a little bit lost from time to time as well, but my eyes tell me he has a more valuable presence when he’s in the game. I recognize this is oversimplifying things, but ... is Theis good?
The more popular advanced stats rate his defense as ranging from elite (2nd overall in DRPM, trailing only Rudy Gobert) to excellent (15th overall in D-PIPM), to very good (39th overall in D-RAPTOR). I'd say "very good, maybe worthey of a couple of All-NBA team votes" is the approximate consensus of neutral NBA observers.

Edit- he did not get any All-NBA defensive team votes. I think he’s generally more highly regarded by the analytics crowd, though I think he still has a pretty positive reputation on D around the league.
 
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Eddie Jurak

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Theis had a monster second half yesterday. 15 points, 13 assists rebounds, 3 blocks, and was a key part of the demolishment of Miami's zone in the second half.
 
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NomarsFool

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Really great game. Early in the 3rd I was pissed when Theis picked up two quick fouls. I was starting to think Theis was a regular season player who was unplayable in the playoffs. But his overall contribution to the defense in the 3q won that game, I think. Just seemed to be quite the difference maker.
 

InstaFace

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His head wasn't right at the start of the game and he took a couple of cheapies. Plus they were willing to switch him and he wasn't able to punish them. Inserting Kanter was a coaching masterstroke because it completely blew the Heat's defensive rotations to hell for the better part of a quarter while the rest of the Cs were getting their head out of their ass. I was shocked Stevens didn't go back to Kanter in late 3rd / early 4th, but I guess at that point you can't change up what's working. I just don't get why they went with Granite, but either way, Theis was possessed and mostly poised in that second half, and I can't tell whether it was mental or just being relatively fresh from having a bigger 1H break.
 

tmracht

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Wonder if fatigue is a factor. He's up to almost 29mpg in the playoffs, he was about 24 in the regular season this year coming off of about 15mpg last year. That's not an insane jump but for someone who needs hustle to be effective wonder if that first half rest helped a bit.
 

teddykgb

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Once he realized they were not even bothering to guard him at the FT line it just all sort of clicked for him. A few easy buckets and he was off to the races
 

Spelunker

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Theis had a monster second half yesterday. 15 points, 13 assists, 3 blocks, and was a key part of the demolishment of Miami's zone in the second half.
Just in case someone is reading this and didn't watch the game or check the box score, you mean 13 boards.
 

lovegtm

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If the Celtics are dead-set on playing Theis alongside other bigs like TT and Grant, they may want to consider having him pop to 15-18 feet rather than 3. He looks way more comfortable there, and would probably have more gravity if covered, and shot equity if not. He's also able to pass in space, so it's an easier area for him to operate from. You might lose a bit of expected value on the shots themselves, but the other advantages probably outweigh it if he's going to keep shooting 30-33% and not draw hard closeouts.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If the Celtics are dead-set on playing Theis alongside other bigs like TT and Grant, they may want to consider having him pop to 15-18 feet rather than 3. He looks way more comfortable there, and would probably have more gravity if covered, and shot equity if not. He's also able to pass in space, so it's an easier area for him to operate from. You might lose a bit of expected value on the shots themselves, but the other advantages probably outweigh it if he's going to keep shooting 30-33% and not draw hard closeouts.
Popping to 15-18 feet is good for DT but it's hard to space properly IMO. Still, your point is spot on as Theis is now shooting .761 on 2Ps (second in the league to DeAndre Jordan, who is basically only dunking) and .750 from 10-16 feet, which looks to be second in the league among players who have played more than 300 minutes and take a substantial % of shots from that range (say 5% - note that Damien Lee, who has played 310 minutes and take 6.4% of shots from 10-16 feet, is shooting .800 on those shots).

Pretty amazing.

Will also note that as we know, DT hit his first 2 3Ps against MIL then missed something like 14 in a row. In his last 10 games, he's hitting .500 on 3Ps and has raised his season shooting to 34%.
 

lovegtm

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Popping to 15-18 feet is good for DT but it's hard to space properly IMO. Still, your point is spot on as Theis is now shooting .761 on 2Ps (second in the league to DeAndre Jordan, who is basically only dunking) and .750 from 10-16 feet, which looks to be second in the league among players who have played more than 300 minutes and take a substantial % of shots from that range (say 5% - note that Damien Lee, who has played 310 minutes and take 6.4% of shots from 10-16 feet, is shooting .800 on those shots).

Pretty amazing.

Will also note that as we know, DT hit his first 2 3Ps against MIL then missed something like 14 in a row. In his last 10 games, he's hitting .500 on 3Ps and has raised his season shooting to 34%.
Wow, I didn't realize it was that high from 10-16. Obviously that's unsustainable, but it still could be a very profitable shot to get to.

It's advantageous relative to spacing to 3 in that a) no one closes out to him from 3 anyway above the break b) it gives him the option to read the defense and either roll, or stop short for that little jumper.
 

NomarsFool

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His offensive game has really been blossoming the last few games. He has a nice stroke from 12-15 feet. I don't love the 3PAs from him.
 

benhogan

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His offensive game has really been blossoming the last few games. He has a nice stroke from 12-15 feet. I don't love the 3PAs from him.
But all the 3pt attempts, in the regular season, are well worth it. DT needs to launch at least a couple/gm and we need to live with the results. Neither TT/TL provide any outside threat, you really need one BIG that can competently shoot 3s (his stroke isn't bad).

If DT can get up around 38%, Centers will have to respect his 3. The knock-on effect is HUGE. This opens up the rim for JayCrew + Kemba.
 

the moops

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I am not sure at his volume, him shooting 38% or 33% matters. Until he is shooting 38% at twice the volume, he is still going to be left somewhat alone to shoot that top of the arc three.
 

benhogan

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I am not sure at his volume, him shooting 38% or 33% matters. Until he is shooting 38% at twice the volume, he is still going to be left somewhat alone to shoot that top of the arc three.
If our 5th offensive option is being left alone at the top & nailing 3s at a 38% clip. Great.
That's a highly efficient option at the end of the shot clock in the halfcourt.
 

the moops

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If our 5th offensive option is being left alone at the top & nailing 3s at a 38% clip. Great.
That's a highly efficient option at the end of the shot clock in the halfcourt.
I agree, but he is taking less than 2 threes a game. Him making them at 33% instead of 38% is like one extra mised three every 7 games or so
 

jmcc5400

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Another encouraging development for Theis is that he is committing (or being called for) fewer fouls. Down roughly one foul per 36 minutes
 

Cellar-Door

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Another encouraging development for Theis is that he is committing (or being called for) fewer fouls. Down roughly one foul per 36 minutes
I wonder how much of that is just that he's not playing as many players who are massive strength mismatches with Thompson taking the bigger man in almost all their minutes together
 

Cesar Crespo

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But all the 3pt attempts, in the regular season, are well worth it. DT needs to launch at least a couple/gm and we need to live with the results. Neither TT/TL provide any outside threat, you really need one BIG that can competently shoot 3s (his stroke isn't bad).

If DT can get up around 38%, Centers will have to respect his 3. The knock-on effect is HUGE. This opens up the rim for JayCrew + Kemba.
We need to live with the results but we don't know whether they will be worth it or not. You only need 1 and he is our best traditional option (Semi, Grant). Trading for one probably isn't all that wise either, unless they can also defend the 3 and 4. Good luck with that tho lol.

It's DT, TT and TL or bust at Center this year.
 

jmcc5400

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I wonder how much of that is just that he's not playing as many players who are massive strength mismatches with Thompson taking the bigger man in almost all their minutes together
That's a great point. Makes sense.
 

NomarsFool

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I'd guess that's a good part of it. His playing with Thompson also probably explains his rebounding numbers being down.
And where he is on the court because he's playing with Thompson (less likely to be near the basket).
 

TripleOT

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Theis shoots well when he’s fully engaged and playing bouncy. He’s not s good shooter when playing with low energy.

He’s shooting 76% from two, including 80% from 10 feet to the three line, and is one of the best players at the rim, at 80%
 

JakeRae

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In a still admittedly small sample, Theis is now shooting 40% from 3 on 2 attempts per game. That’s not huge volume, but he’s now taking over 30% of his shots from 3 and his form looks good. He’s also taking most of those threes, and shooting a higher percentage, above the break.

That said, his defensive value seems to take a real hit at the 4. His blocks and steals are both down, and when he does play the 5, he looks better and more confident than when defending the 4. On the other hand, our other wing depth options are awful and Thompson seems to be improving, so playing Theis out of position may be one way to make the best out of a roster that has a big hole right now at the bench wing position.
 

benhogan

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In a still admittedly small sample, Theis is now shooting 40% from 3 on 2 attempts per game. That’s not huge volume, but he’s now taking over 30% of his shots from 3 and his form looks good. He’s also taking most of those threes, and shooting a higher percentage, above the break.

That said, his defensive value seems to take a real hit at the 4. His blocks and steals are both down, and when he does play the 5, he looks better and more confident than when defending the 4. On the other hand, our other wing depth options are awful and Thompson seems to be improving, so playing Theis out of position may be one way to make the best out of a roster that has a big hole right now at the bench wing position.
20 games into the season and the TT/DT combo has been putrid. The defense is awful (114.4 def rtg). Mind you, those two play mostly with Tatum/Brown/Smart. Playing with 2 All-Stars should have the Celtics opening up some sizeable leads, but it hasn't. That Double BIG lineup is basically burning valuable Tatum/Brown minutes.

Tatum/Brown/Smart/Theis/TT has been a huge negative (112.8 of rtg/ 117.2 def rtg / -4.4) and it's played by far the most minutes. That group has been setting the defensive tone to start games and 2nd halves. To the eye-test, the double BIG experiment looks slow and incapable of protecting the rim or rotating on the perimeter. The stats back that up.

Meanwhile, Daniel Theis paired with Grant (109.5 off rtg/ 94.9 def rtg/ +14.6) or Semi (113.7 off rtg/ 105 def rtg/ +8.7) has put up much better #s. Brad needs to stop starting 1st and 3rd Quarters with TT/DT. Starting Theis w/Grant or Semi at the 4 while Smart is out or Kemba rests is the obvious move.

So as bad as Grant has started this season, the team has been much more efficient with him playing next to Theis than the TT/DT combo

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
 
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slamminsammya

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20 games into the season and the TT/DT combo has been putrid. The defense is awful (114.4 def rtg). Mind you, those two play mostly with Tatum/Brown/Smart. Playing with 2 All-Stars should have the Celtics opening up some sizeable leads, but it hasn't. That Double BIG lineup is basically burning valuable Tatum/Brown minutes.

Tatum/Brown/Smart/Theis/TT has been a huge negative (112.8 of rtg/ 117.2 def rtg / -4.4) and it's played by far the most minutes. That group has been setting the defensive tone to start games and 2nd halves. To the eye-test, the double BIG experiment looks slow and incapable of protecting the rim or rotating on the perimeter. The stats back that up.

Meanwhile, Daniel Theis paired with Grant (109.5 off rtg/ 94.9 def rtg/ +14.6) or Semi (113.7 off rtg/ 105 def rtg/ +8.7) has put up much better #s. Brad needs to stop starting 1st and 3rd Quarters with TT/DT. Starting Theis w/Grant or Semi at the 4 while Smart is out or Kemba rests is the obvious move.

So as bad as Grant has started this season, the team has been much more efficient with him playing next to Theis than the TT/DT combo

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
The one that really pops out is Javonte + Semi have a D rating of 87 on 87 minutes together. That is the 5th best in the NBA among pairs with >= 75 minutes together, which is a limit I decided on randomly just now. Obviously it doesn't mean too much since those are mostly minutes up against bench players, but its still pretty impressive.

The top pair? Nwaba + Tate for Houston have an 81.9 rating over 142 minutes. Damn.
 

NomarsFool

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Came across this recently:

"Athletes Love Catalina Crunch
"While I'm down in Orlando finishing up the 2020 NBA Season, I love eating Catalina Crunch for breakfast. It keeps me full, my energy high and tastes delicious."
- Daniel Theis, Boston Celtics Center"
 

Ferm Sheller

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Came across this recently:

"Athletes Love Catalina Crunch
"While I'm down in Orlando finishing up the 2020 NBA Season, I love eating Catalina Crunch for breakfast. It keeps me full, my energy high and tastes delicious."
- Daniel Theis, Boston Celtics Center"
Charles Barkley used to be a spokesman for them . . . no, wait, that was Cap'N Crunch.