Ya. It's entirely possible Sale is lights out all year and the Sox miss out on the playoffs by a game or two as well as the opportunity to QO him and Grissom doesn't adjust to the big leagues. Or the more likely outcome that Grissom is at least above replacement level and is more of a long term win. It's also possible that Nick Yorke (and his 50 FV) could have filled the same role at some point. Not much to do but wait and see.
It's not very possible that Sale is lights out all year. The guy will probably break down shortly after the All Star break, if not sooner.
Or we can decide when the trade is made if it was a good one. If it exchanged one set of future possibilities for another set of future possibilities that benefit the club.
Yeah, I don't think Sale's results this season play any role in determining if this was a good trade for the Sox or not. In addition to other factors, there is absolutely no assurance that whatever season he has for the Braves would be the same season he would have had for the Sox.
Yeah he’d probably be doing much worse because Bailey can’t get anything out of these guys… right?
would be more than fine bumping Whitlock from the rotation given that he, once again, has broken down after not even a handful of starts. He just isn’t cut out for starting, period. Time to pull the plug on the experiment and put him back in the pen where he shines.
Bailey is not a doctor.
Yeah, having starters who regularly break down with injury is not helpful.
Yeah. The entire trade from the Red sox perspective is about Grissom, and if he pans out or not. Sale being a 6 WAR stud or 0 WAR nothing in 2024 I don't think was a significant part of the calculus.
Everyone understands that Chris Sale is a threat to get injured again at any time. But you can say that for a pretty large number of pitchers now.
If that's the way the Red Sox front office saw it, that it doesn't matter if Sale is a 6 WAR stud this year or not, it tends to confirm the idea that their statements about wanting to be competitive this year have been bullshit.
Yeah, but he's also 35. Baseball players in general become more fungible, lose velocity, etc., as they get older. It's just a fact of life. Not blaming Sale but pitchers past 30 are ticking time bombs.
That's ridiculous.
It’s not that binary. They could have thought that the dropoff from their *median projection* for Sale to the pitcher who would get his playing time (Houck? Criswell?) would be smaller — even in 2024 — than the expected infield upgrade of adding Grissom. And then we’d still have years of Grissom.
No one is "prognosticating" that he'll get hurt. It's about probabilities and alternatives. And I'm with those that don't really give a shit how well he does with Atlanta. The entire trade analysis depends on how Grissom does.
If someone wants to make the "call" on the trade on May 11, then you also have to say that his replacements are doing better than he is, so it was obviously correct to move on from him.
If you arbitrarily designate Houck and Crawford as "his replacements", although I'm not sure why that makes sense. Sale would be #3 in fWAR on the Red Sox right now.
When Sale was traded the Sox had in-house resources (including Giolito). The SP depth was:
But it's not a problem.
Yeah, I mean half the board wanted Alex Cora starting when Dustin Pedroia hit the skids in his first month, so, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if there's people who want us to go out and get Brandon Drury STAT. They're not vocal yet, but if he continues to struggle through 100 PA, there will definitely be some chatter.
That's too clever by half. Part of evaluating the trade is whether the team's assessment of Grissom was on target, not just based on what he's "done in the past" but by whether he is likely or not to improve on the numbers, and by how much. That's part and parcel with any trade for young talent. It's not purely a probabilistic analysis, where if a coin flip ends up tails three times in a row you can just shrug. It's their scoutuing and analysis of Grissom's likely future path.
I think you protest a bit much. While no prospect is a sure-fire thing, some younger players are much more likely to have a productive ML career than others. If this was Chris Sale for a bunch of underperforming MiL players the Sox thought had hidden potential, or a sketchy reclamation project type of player, I'd agree more with your point.
236 MLB plate appearance is an extensive record?
We also don’t know yet what Sale is going to be six weeks from now because of a very real and very recent injury history coupled with his age. But the deal, as many others have pointed out, wasn’t really about Sale.
This is the craziest part of it. He had only 240 MLB plate appearances when the Sox traded for him. Even if he hadn’t gotten sick, he’s had a grand total of 33 plate appearances this season. That‘s an absurdly small sample size to be drawing any conclusions from. This board always freaks out about the early MLB struggles of good prospects, but even by our crazy standards, this Is a little ridiculous.
Grissom has great minor league numbers, but there's been some commentary elsewhere on this forum about what a quantum leap it is from AAA pitching to MLB pitching, and seemingly moreso than ever. Grissom had a .921 OPS in AAA last year. But Dalbec had a .938 OPS in AAA last year.
Grissom is 5 1/2 years younger, come on.
What is a "good" roll of the dice is generally a matter of opinion.
The logic of your argument boils down to: The Red Sox should stop trading for prospects who hit well in AAA because Bobby Dalbec didn’t pan out as a major league hitter.
Not all opinions are equally worthwhile.
Like what, exactly?
That is the answer, and as you pointed out, it's fine. So scratch that off your "I think there are valid reasons" list. Another answer is that Grissom and Story can play multiple positions, spelling the LHH Mayer and/or giving Devers a day off. But we'll cross that bridge if and when we come to it.
Two things:
There are a number here who have said it doesn't matter how well Sale pitches this year, and have either flat out said 2024 doesn't matter, or strongly implied it.
You are making some solid points.
Stop being disingenuous. The reasons are obvious. If healthy Sale could be a 4+ WAR pitcher this year. There was a vesting option in his contract for 2025. We gave the Braves $17 million. Grissom is an unknown quantity.
What problem with the current team is solved by having Chris Sale pitching on it? Unless he can hit and play first or second, he'd simply be making a strength marginally better.
Dalbec has had numerous pretty fair shots to show what he can do in the majors. Grissom, meanwhile, is about halfway through the equivalent of his spring training reps, for a new team in a new city playing a sort of new position. I don't think we can judge Grissom for a little while yet.
Similar to Story's first season but without the benefit of career maturity. Let's give him a couple months and 250 ABs at least.
The bare fact there's some uncertainty re: subsequent player performance is not a valid reason to question a trade. Because it applies to every single trade. Ever.
Agreed. Guys with good contact skills and patience tend to struggle less with their adjustment to the big leagues. They can survive the slightly elevated K rate and the drop in BB that comes with upgrading to the majors for the first time. Grissom goes from a 14% K rate to a 18% or so, and he can still put the ball in play enough to make it work.
Agree with what the gist of what you're saying since putting the ball in play with the shift limitations should give a decent boost to the average, but minor league BABIPs are very high due to inferior fielding and fielding conditions in general. And by sprint speed measures this season, he's well below average though slightly below average for his short major league career.
I think that's all fair, but now you've got me interested. Trying to drum up where I can find data on league-wide BABIP in the minors.
I don't blame you. I like Sale, too, and I also expected him to be healthy — and if healthy, quite good.
