Cy Young winner Chris Sale thread

moondog80

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The Braves were going to make the playoffs in all likelihood given their 104 win season the year before.
They made the playoffs on a tiebreaker.

It's fine to point out Sale's drawbacks, they are considerable. But let's not fall into Chris Sale Derangement Syndrome. He was a big part of them making the playoffs, which is no small thing.
 

brownsox

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I don't think Sale is a slam dunk, but let me make a case.

In the 15 year span from 1995 until 2010, there were 11 pitchers with 50 or more WAR, and 11 with 175 or more wins. In the same 15 year span from 2010 (Sale's debut) until 2024 (yes I recognize there is a year of overlap, but it's early and I am lazy), there have been 3 pitchers with 50 or more WAR, and four with 175 wins. It is hard to overstate just how much the concept of pitching has changed in such a short period of time.

Among pitchers with 200+ starts since his debut, Sale ranks 3rd in ERA (3.04), 3rd in FIP (2.89), 2nd in K/9 (11.1, only Snell is higher), T9th in BB/9 (2.1), and 2nd in K/BB 5.31, only deGrom is better).

I think the three guys above him in WAR (Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander) are all absolute, no doubt locks for the Hall of Fame. I also think the guy right behind him (Greinke) likely gets in. Cole will likely surpass Sale at some point in many of these categories (and obviously has more wins, but has also played for, shocker, much more consistently good teams). DeGrom has a chance to pass him in some as well, if the duct tape (and is actually one of the two players leading Sale in FIP).

If you change the criteria to the entire careers of pitchers who debuted between 2005 and 2012, Sale is 5th in WAR, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, and far and away first in K:BB (he is at 5.31, 2nd is Kluber at 4.69). I think he is clearly a top 5 pitcher among his "generation", and if you put a gun to my head I would probably place him 4th behind Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander.

I think if he retired today, he has a pretty good case.

IF (yes, that word is doing a lot work here) he has seasons at about 60% of what he did this year with the Braves in the final two years of his contracts, he is up to ~1750 K's and ~155 wins. If that happens, I think he becomes a shoe in.
I agree with this - Sale is more or less qualified now, and if he can put together a few more decent seasons, he will certainly be qualified.

What’s not clear to me is how the writers will view his candidacy if indeed he ends up with 155~ wins. I would like to think that the writers would adjust expectations from starters given how dramatically the game has changed in the last decade, but I think we’ll have to see.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I agree with this - Sale is more or less qualified now, and if he can put together a few more decent seasons, he will certainly be qualified.

What’s not clear to me is how the writers will view his candidacy if indeed he ends up with 155~ wins. I would like to think that the writers would adjust expectations from starters given how dramatically the game has changed in the last decade, but I think we’ll have to see.
He is at 53.4 bWar now. By all the metrics B-ref lists on his player page (Black ink, grey ink, HoF monitor, Hof Standards, JAWS) he's juuuuuuuuuust a bit short of most HoF metrics. Of course WAR is a counting metric and since he's missed huge swaths of time in his career he hasn't amassed the WAR necessary to be a sure fire Hall of Famer. He's got fewer WAR than Kevin Appier, Dave Steib, Jack Powell, and Tim Hudson, and those guys pitched far more innings.

I don't see 155 wins to be enough to get him in. His postseason record isn't that great either.
 
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BaseballJones

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"When it counts" - there's lots of games he pitched in "when it counted". Not the playoffs, obviously, but the Braves were fighting for their playoff lives all September. Here's what he did in September:

9/3 vs Col - 7.0 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k, 3-0 victory (Sale got the W)
9/8 vs Tor - 6.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k, 4-3 victory (Sale got a ND, the game went to extras)
9/14 vs LAD - 6.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 10-1 victory (Sale got the W)
9/19 at Cin - 5.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 15-3 victory (Sale got the W)

So: 4 starts, all 4 games won by Atlanta, 2 of which were coming off a loss in the previous game, and Sale put up this stat line:

3-0, 24.0 ip, 18 h, 3 r, 3 er, 5 bb, 28 k, 1.13 era, 0.96 whip, 10.5 k/9

I mean, those games, for Atlanta, were absolutely "when it counted", and Sale stepped up big time.

He also - which goes to your point about not being able to count on him - missed his last regular season start and obviously the playoff game. So that 9/19 start at Cincy was his last game - the team went two full weeks without him throwing a single pitch.

But he absolutely did come up big in games that definitely "counted" for the Braves (and yes they all "count" but those were September games in the heat of a playoff race, when Atlanta desperately needed wins).
 

lexrageorge

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The Braves were going to make the playoffs in all likelihood given their 104 win season the year before.

Chris Sale remains one of the most infuriating players to have ever put on the uniform. Even when he's good he still cannot be counted upon. I am positive the Braves are hardly doing cartwheels at the results of their 2024 season.

Again, he's not missed here. Thank God he's gone.
Whether the Sox should have retained Sale is a very different discussion than whether Sale helped the Braves. All of the following can be true (and are true, in fact):

- The Sox needed to move on from Sale, as the team could no longer count on him being a key piece of their rotation.

- The 2024 Braves do not make the playoffs without Sale.

- Even for teams coming off 104 win seasons, making the playoffs is still the most critical goal for GMs of baseball teams. Bloom got fired after the team missed the playoffs two years in a row. Get a team to the playoffs a few years in a row, and the GMs job is usually safe.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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"When it counts" - there's lots of games he pitched in "when it counted". Not the playoffs, obviously, but the Braves were fighting for their playoff lives all September. Here's what he did in September:

9/3 vs Col - 7.0 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k, 3-0 victory (Sale got the W)
9/8 vs Tor - 6.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k, 4-3 victory (Sale got a ND, the game went to extras)
9/14 vs LAD - 6.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 10-1 victory (Sale got the W)
9/19 at Cin - 5.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 15-3 victory (Sale got the W)

So: 4 starts, all 4 games won by Atlanta, 2 of which were coming off a loss in the previous game, and Sale put up this stat line:

3-0, 24.0 ip, 18 h, 3 r, 3 er, 5 bb, 28 k, 1.13 era, 0.96 whip, 10.5 k/9

I mean, those games, for Atlanta, were absolutely "when it counted", and Sale stepped up big time.

He also - which goes to your point about not being able to count on him - missed his last regular season start and obviously the playoff game. So that 9/19 start at Cincy was his last game - the team went two full weeks without him throwing a single pitch.

But he absolutely did come up big in games that definitely "counted" for the Braves (and yes they all "count" but those were September games in the heat of a playoff race, when Atlanta desperately needed wins).
Sure. At the same time, they got this guy to win them postseason games and the World Series.

He got hurt. He's always going to get hurt. He always will be hurt. We've always been at war with Eurasia. Personally, having lived through the infuriating Sale experience over the last few years of never knowing when the next injury will strike, there's zero chance I'd ever want him on my team if I were in charge. Others may feel differently, but to me the chaos involved in Sale's repeated injuries isn't worth the good pitching he sometimes provides along the way. The Sox got to that point in due time. The Braves may get there just yet.
 

rodderick

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And yet they were so good in 2023 they could absorb that decline and still make the playoffs. They didn't win in the playoffs because their new Cy Young pitcher predictably got hurt at the end of the season, like he always does.
Sure, but a single fewer win would have meant they miss the playoffs. You don't think Sale contributed one win over the alternatives? It's not like they were a slam dunk to make it in 2024 with him or without him, or at least their season absolutely did not play out that way.
 

BaseballJones

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Sure. At the same time, they got this guy to win them postseason games and the World Series.

He got hurt. He's always going to get hurt. He always will be hurt. We've always been at war with Eurasia. Personally, having lived through the infuriating Sale experience over the last few years of never knowing when the next injury will strike, there's zero chance I'd ever want him on my team if I were in charge. Others may feel differently, but to me the chaos involved in Sale's repeated injuries isn't worth the good pitching he sometimes provides along the way. The Sox got to that point in due time. The Braves may get there just yet.
Yeah, we know he got hurt. I'm pushing back on the idea that he couldn't be counted on "when it counted", when in fact, that's only partially true. "It counted" all September for the Braves, and four times, Sale gave them CYA level performances helping them to four wins, which they needed (every single one of them) just to make the playoffs.
 

simplicio

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I'm not sure how Sale pitching game 1 against the Padres keeps ATL from getting shut out but whatever.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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I'm happy for Chris Sale, but do not think he bolstered his Hall of Fame chances all that much. I think he'd need minimally several more high caliber seasons to even enter the discussion. He is among the best pitchers of his time, but that doesn't mean he needs to be in the Hall of Fame. Johan Santana and David Price are his career and age comps on b-ref and that sounds about right.

Great player, not a hall of famer.
Today, sure, but I think he's in striking distance. Can he stay on the field enough to reach 3k strikeouts? I doubt he can but it would get it done.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Today, sure, but I think he's in striking distance. Can he stay on the field enough to reach 3k strikeouts? I doubt he can but it would get it done.
He lacks a lot of the innings necessary to get in IMO. The injuries derailed that path.

Voters are going to see possible 155 wins and not be impressed. He's currently 35 and has only 138 wins. He has 2414 Ks. He'd need three more seasons of 200 Ks to reach 300 and at his age and injury history (and a normal decline in performance as he ages further) I think it's extremely unlikely he reaches 3000.
 

brs3

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Today, sure, but I think he's in striking distance. Can he stay on the field enough to reach 3k strikeouts? I doubt he can but it would get it done.
I think his his injury history, especially considering he ended 2024 injured, makes it extremely unlikely that he will duplicate his 2024 season, which he'd need to do several times to reach 3k strikeouts. He could also have 6-7 pedestrian but healthy seasons to reach 3k, but I wouldn't bet on it. He'll likely need to duplicate his 2024 season and remain healthy to get a nice multi year deal when he becomes a FA.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He lacks a lot of the innings necessary to get in IMO. The injuries derailed that path.

Voters are going to see possible 155 wins and not be impressed. He's currently 35 and has only 138 wins. He has 2414 Ks. He'd need three more seasons of 200 Ks to reach 300 and at his age and injury history (and a normal decline in performance as he ages further) I think it's extremely unlikely he reaches 3000.
200 wins is going to be the new 300. Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke are locks- after that, if Sale doesn’t get in, there may not be any SP elected for a long time. Comparing current starters to those of even 10-15 years ago is a bit apples and oranges:
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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200 wins is going to be the new 300. Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke are locks- after that, if Sale doesn’t get in, there may not be any SP elected for a long time. Comparing current starters to those of even 10-15 years ago is a bit apples and oranges:
But Sale has 138. Even with the shrinking win boundaries, he's still not really close to that level. And he's 35 and can't stay healthy.

Verlander: 80.5
Scherzer: 75.4
Kershaw: 79.4
Grienke: 77.5


Sale: 53.4

He's not even near the same stratosphere as those guys.
 
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Until yesterday, Sale was considered by many to be the best pitcher of all-time who never won a Cy Young (at the very least he was in the conversation). No one cares about wins anymore, Chris Sale is going to be a Hall of Famer.
 

joe dokes

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I don't see how 8 good seasons and not a lot of black ink gets him in. A couple of more like 2024, maybe. But "a couple of more" does not seem likely.
 

Ale Xander

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He’s got a better career ERA+ than Mathewson, Young and Big Unit. He had 6 straight top 5 cy finishes when he was by most accounts the best pitcher in the AL. His FIP and WHIP numbers look god. He now has a CY (and GG) via TC to pair with his WS. I think he gets in. Only real blemish (and it’s a spectacular blemish) is injuries and it’s not completely his fault he’s rail thin.

Of the retired players ahead of him, only Devlin (5yrs), Webb (7 years), Quisenberry (RP) Smoky Joe Wood (even fewer wins and when SP pitched deeper) are not in HOF I believe

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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He’s got a better career ERA+ than Mathewson, Young and Big Unit. He had 6 straight top 5 cy finishes when he was by most accounts the best pitcher in the AL. His FIP and WHIP numbers look god. He now has a CY (and GG) via TC to pair with his WS. I think he gets in. Only real blemish (and it’s a spectacular blemish) is injuries and it’s not completely his fault he’s rail thin.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Comparing ERA+ to those three guys who pitched vastly more innings than he did and in a completely different era isn't a comparison that's very helpful. His IP is woefully low. His WAR is middling at best, even compared to his direct contemporaries. His postseason pitching record really isn't very good at all. And, for the more traditionally minded, his win totals are very low.

When he actually pitched he was usually very good, at least in the regular season. The problem is, he really hasn't pitched very much.

He's got fewer WAR than Kevin Appier. He has fewer postseason wins than Mike Boddicker.

He's not a Hall of Famer right now. He just hasn't pitched enough.
 

Ale Xander

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Comparing ERA+ to those three guys who pitched vastly more innings than he did and in a completely different era isn't a comparison that's very helpful. His IP is woefully low. His WAR is middling at best, even compared to his direct contemporaries. His postseason pitching record really isn't very good at all. And, for the more traditionally minded, his win totals are very low.

When he actually pitched he was usually very good, at least in the regular season. The problem is, he really hasn't pitched very much.

He's got fewer WAR than Kevin Appier. He has fewer postseason wins than Mike Boddicker.

He's not a Hall of Famer right now. He just hasn't pitched enough.
WAR and wins are IP-dependent. As you say, different eras. How else are you going to compare pitchers across eras?
 

Fishy1

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This always gets weirdly personal. It's all emotional reasoning. Everyone here knows Sale pitched for the 2018 WS winners. He didn't pitch great, but he was on the mound, and he could be "depended on." He was on the mound in 2021 for the Sox in the playoffs too.

Then he had a weird string of injuries, some of them just weird pitcher-getting-older-stuff, one which was his own fault... but all in all, he's pitched more than almost any active pitcher.

Johan Santana was completely cooked and out of baseball by the time he was 32. Does that mean he couldn't be depended upon? Pedro's last healthy season was when he was 33... does that mean he couldn't be depended upon either? No, it means father time comes for all of us, but he comes a hell of a lot faster for baseball pitchers.

This is just a really silly discussion at the end of the day that's been generated by how one poster who's most notable for taking absolutist positions

I don't think he's a hall of famer, yet, fwiw, unless he turns in another four or five seasons like this. Which, like, we all thought this year was impossible just a season ago, and frankly I don't see why he can't shock us all again.

EDIT: Deleted provocative shit that didn't need to be there and was too personal
 

brownsox

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Hadn’t realized this until a minute ago, but he has fewer career IP than Johan Santana for the moment. (He’ll likely surpass Santana next season).

FWIW, JAWS has him as a plausible if unlikely selection now; in a group with Santana, Hudson, Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, Tanana, Pettitte, Dwight Gooden, and Mark Langston, but ahead of some Hall of Famers (including Koufax, Dean, Whitey Ford and Bob Lemon, as well as some obvious mistakes).
 

TheDogMan

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Happy for him. Hope he stays healthy, wish he had done it in Boston and if Grissom does not work out this will be one of those Varitek and Lowe deals just in reverse. For the old timers Lyle for Cater sounds about right.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This always gets weirdly personal. It's all emotional reasoning. Everyone here knows Sale pitched for the 2018 WS winners. He didn't pitch great, but he was on the mound, and he could be "depended on." He was on the mound in 2021 for the Sox in the playoffs too.

Then he had a weird string of injuries, some of them just weird pitcher-getting-older-stuff, one which was his own fault... but all in all, he's pitched more than almost any active pitcher.

Johan Santana was completely cooked and out of baseball by the time he was 32. Does that mean he couldn't be depended upon? Pedro's last healthy season was when he was 33... does that mean he couldn't be depended upon either? No, it means father time comes for all of us, but he comes a hell of a lot faster for baseball pitchers.

This is just a really silly discussion at the end of the day that's been generated by how one poster who's most notable for taking absolutist positions

I don't think he's a hall of famer, yet, fwiw, unless he turns in another four or five seasons like this. Which, like, we all thought this year was impossible just a season ago, and frankly I don't see why he can't shock us all again.

EDIT: Deleted provocative shit that didn't need to be there and was too personal
So basically you're agreeing with my take that he's not a HoFer yet calling my position a silly discussion taken by an absolutionist. Glad to see we're on the same page.

I have actually found the HoF discussion pretty interesting, I think Sale is the classic kind of "high ceiling, high volatility" player that generates interesting POVs. Dokes made a good point that Sale really only has 8 full seasons to his name (I'd actually give him 9 because 2024 did result in most of the year pitching), but a player with only 9 full seasons has to be performing at a Pedro-esque level to reach the HoF threshold. Sale isn't quite at that level. And even Pedro had 11 full seasons. Koufax was mentioned above, he's clearly a HoF and an outlier as he was stratospherically good when he pitched and then abruptly retired. Koufax also had a great postseason record.

Chris Sale could not and can not be depended upon because for four straight seasons he was seriously injured. And this season, when it appeared he could finally have overcome the injury bug for most of the year, he got injured again. Like the Trevor Story "injury-prone" label, at some point reality has to be acknowledged that Sale is not a guy who can be counted upon to contribute in a healthy fashion for a full season any more. I'm sure people will say his injuries are flukes but at some point that label will also change. Perhaps even now!
 

brs3

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Hadn’t realized this until a minute ago, but he has fewer career IP than Johan Santana for the moment. (He’ll likely surpass Santana next season).

FWIW, JAWS has him as a plausible if unlikely selection now; in a group with Santana, Hudson, Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, Tanana, Pettitte, Dwight Gooden, and Mark Langston, but ahead of some Hall of Famers (including Koufax, Dean, Whitey Ford and Bob Lemon, as well as some obvious mistakes).
I think this is a great group of players that generate the Hall of Fame discussion that ultimately aren't quite good enough. Sale is 35, he's putting the final touches on a career at this point, 2024 possibly being the last great season from him. He could absolutely find a late career resurgence and peel off 3 CY seasons, but it's so unlikely. I'd love to be wrong. There's nothing better than watching older players defy gravity.
 

brownsox

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200 wins is going to be the new 300. Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke are locks- after that, if Sale doesn’t get in, there may not be any SP elected for a long time. Comparing current starters to those of even 10-15 years ago is a bit apples and oranges:
There may not be any starting pitchers elected for a while. Gerrit Cole is 34 and has 43 career bWAR; he could make it eventually, especially given his W/L record of 153-80, which voters will probably like. But it’s far from certain that he even ends up with more WAR than Sale has now.

Beyond that? You’ve got deGrom’s peak, but 1367 innings so far, and 42.5 WAR, is so few for a starter even today. Aaron Nola is only 31 and has 35.6 bWAR; he might be the next best candidate. He’s the only other active starting pitcher I can really see making it without squinting.

Craig Kimbrel is currently 19th among active pitchers for bWAR and he’s still younger than some guys ahead of him. He’s a reliever. That’s how much the game has changed for starters, and I’m not sure how quickly HOF voters are going to process that.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think this is a great group of players that generate the Hall of Fame discussion that ultimately aren't quite good enough. Sale is 35, he's putting the final touches on a career at this point, 2024 possibly being the last great season from him. He could absolutely find a late career resurgence and peel off 3 CY seasons, but it's so unlikely. I'd love to be wrong. There's nothing better than watching older players defy gravity.
Yeah I'd agree with this. There gets to be a point for many players where they are in the Hall of Very Good, but not quite to Hall of Fame level. And many times, getting to the HoF level merely requires putting together a few more decent seasons towards the end of their careers. Some can and some can't.

Shawn Green was 32 years old with 35.3 WAR and 303 HRs with an OPS+ of 123. You could squint and see him putting together maybe 4 or 5 more seasons of maybe 2-3 WAR each and he'd edge towards getting talked about for the HoF. Instead he completely fell off a cliff and put up negative WARs over the rest of his career.
 

joe dokes

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Not sure this adds much other than to point out that it was a long time ago, but Koufax retired at 30 and pitched 400 more innings than Sale has now.
 

Fishy1

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So basically you're agreeing with my take that he's not a HoFer yet calling my position a silly discussion taken by an absolutionist. Glad to see we're on the same page.

I have actually found the HoF discussion pretty interesting, I think Sale is the classic kind of "high ceiling, high volatility" player that generates interesting POVs.

Chris Sale could not and can not be depended upon because for four straight seasons he was seriously injured. And this season, when it appeared he could finally have overcome the injury bug for most of the year, he got injured again. Like the Trevor Story "injury-prone" label, at some point reality has to be acknowledged that Sale is not a guy who can be counted upon to contribute in a healthy fashion for a full season any more. I'm sure people will say his injuries are flukes but at some point that label will also change. Perhaps even now!
I don't disagree with this at all, I just think you're getting weirdly "infuriated" by Chris Sale when it's basically a problem for pitchers everywhere. The list of pitchers past like, 32, who can be depended on is vanishingly small. There's barely a single team in baseball that hasn't struggled with injuries to its starting pitchers. The Dodgers won a World Series this year even though not a single one of their pitchers threw more than 25 games during the regular season. The solution isn't to avoid Chris Sale, it's to avoid big contracts to pitchers in their 30's if you don't have a back-up plan. In 2023 one of the Sox's problem was their back-up plans were two other ancient pitchers, Corey Kluber and James Paxton, each with troubling injury histories of their own.

It's not surprising to me that the Braves extended him. They needed pitching. They knew he might get hurt, just like I'm sure they knew Spencer Strider's arm could fly off at any moment. When Acuna and Albies and Strider went down, they basically, ahem, depended on Sale to get them to the playoffs. Then he got hurt again. Tough luck. But they're not even in the playoffs if he doesn't pitch like he did.
 

Frisbetarian

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Figuring out how to do that optimally for a starting pitcher *and the rest of the staff, given the knock-on effects of disrupting the usual rhythm of a rotation- seems like a tough problem.

If management tried what you did with Rask- to look at the schedule and pick spots where you could add rest days for Sale- wouldn’t you have to run the same kind of analysis for the other starters, and you’d need a six man rotation probably- so that’s like a six-variable calculus problem? Then it would inevitably get disrupted by injuries?

Rask sitting is a simpler math problem because you just have to plug in Suboptimal Goalie B as the other variable, right?

im asking as a hypothetical because it’s fascinating but it seems tough, especially given how conservative/superstitious some players and coaches can be about habit and conventional wisdom.
It’s absolutely easier to do this in hockey if you manage your (hard cap) salaries intelligently. Some NHL teams, even ones with large analytics departments, did struggle with this, however. See Toronto and Andersen;)

Even though it’s more problematic to get a pitcher rest during the regular season, if you run a baseball team with Chris Sale you still definitely should. Your alternative is losing or having a very limited #1 pitcher for the stretch run and the post season. Maybe you give him 2 weeks off in June and 2 weeks off in late August instead of skipping occasional starts. Or maybe he gets a full month halfway through the season. I don’t know what would work best, but I would 100% limit Sale to low 20 starts going forward in the hopes I have him in October.
 

BaseballJones

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Not sure this adds much other than to point out that it was a long time ago, but Koufax retired at 30 and pitched 400 more innings than Sale has now.
Koufax is really an interesting case because of what you just mentioned. But it's just that his six-year stretch from ages 25-30 were so stratospherically great, it was enough for him to get in. The numbers over those six seasons were just staggering. I don't even need to post them. Just mind-boggling stuff, the likes of which Chris Sale has really never seen.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Koufax is really an interesting case because of what you just mentioned. But it's just that his six-year stretch from ages 25-30 were so stratospherically great, it was enough for him to get in. The numbers over those six seasons were just staggering. I don't even need to post them. Just mind-boggling stuff, the likes of which Chris Sale has really never seen.
Plus a postseason ERA of something like 0.95.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

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The Braves had injuries to more that just Acuna and Strider in 2024. To dismiss those and claim Sale was lacking as the reason they did not achieve this year is far from accurate.

Ronald Acuña Jr.
The 2023 NL MVP tore his second ACL in three years and didn't play after June 1st.

Spencer Strider
The pitcher underwent season-ending elbow surgery and didn't play after June 1st.

Austin Riley
The slugging third baseman broke his hand in August and was ruled out for the playoffs.

Ozzie Albies
The second baseman missed two full months with a wrist fracture.

Michael Harris II
The center fielder spent about two months on the IL with a hamstring strain.

Sean Murphy
The catcher missed almost two months after straining his left oblique in the first game.

A.J. Minter
The long-time reliever had season-ending hip surgery.
 

Frisbetarian

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Dec 3, 2003
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This always gets weirdly personal. It's all emotional reasoning. Everyone here knows Sale pitched for the 2018 WS winners. He didn't pitch great, but he was on the mound, and he could be "depended on." He was on the mound in 2021 for the Sox in the playoffs too.

Then he had a weird string of injuries, some of them just weird pitcher-getting-older-stuff, one which was his own fault... but all in all, he's pitched more than almost any active pitcher.

Johan Santana was completely cooked and out of baseball by the time he was 32. Does that mean he couldn't be depended upon? Pedro's last healthy season was when he was 33... does that mean he couldn't be depended upon either? No, it means father time comes for all of us, but he comes a hell of a lot faster for baseball pitchers.

This is just a really silly discussion at the end of the day that's been generated by how one poster who's most notable for taking absolutist positions

I don't think he's a hall of famer, yet, fwiw, unless he turns in another four or five seasons like this. Which, like, we all thought this year was impossible just a season ago, and frankly I don't see why he can't shock us all again.

EDIT: Deleted provocative shit that didn't need to be there and was too personal
Chris Sale was not even close to dependable in the 2018 postseason. He started just 3 games, had just 1 win (none after Oct 5), posted a 4.11 ERA, and most damningly did not take the ball for his regular start in the deciding game of the World Series forcing Price to pitch on just 3 days rest. But somehow Sale recovered to pitch the 9th!! What a dirt dog!!

I’m not seeing the above as someone you can depend on.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Nov 6, 2001
29,039
Unreal America
Sale will forever be a lightning rod around here, and I for one disliked the extension he got from DD from day one. He also was clearly someone who wanted to pitch, not just cash checks. So good on him for having such a great season.

Atlanta didn't miss Grissom at all and got a playoff appearance out of the deal, so I'm sure they're thrilled. If Grissom never pans out for us then it'll go down as a trade that Breslow "lost". But also a trade that really wasn't consequential for the Sox in the grand scheme of things. Which is the best way to lose a trade, IMHO.

The HoF discussion is fascinating since guys like Sale really will test the willingness of the Hall voters to move on from the traditional ways they've evaluated pitching performance. I mean it's wild to see that Sale led the league with 6 complete games in 2017, and 214 innings in 2018. No one's doing that again for a long time, if ever, and it wasn't that long ago.
 

BosoxFaninCincy

Member
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Mar 9, 2023
197
I have absolutely nothing to add to this robust discussion other than to thank everyone for mentioning others in the Hall of Very Good. Speical shout out to Dan Quisbenberry. I learned to skip stones by emulating his and fellow string bean Kent Tekulve.
 

pk1627

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
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May 24, 2003
2,689
Boston
Congrats to Sale on this distinguished honor.

That said, I liked the guy in May in the seasons he could actually take the field. Otherwise, his extension in 2019 was a top-5 worst transaction we have experienced, impacted the rebuild, and appropriately got the guy who did it fired.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
8,522
Chris Sale was not even close to dependable in the 2018 postseason. He started just 3 games, had just 1 win (none after Oct 5), posted a 4.11 ERA, and most damningly did not take the ball for his regular start in the deciding game of the World Series forcing Price to pitch on just 3 days rest. But somehow Sale recovered to pitch the 9th!! What a dirt dog!!

I’m not seeing the above as someone you can depend on.
Again, I don't quibble with the "dependable" thing, but with how angry and entitled people are about getting to watch an injured guy pitch.

And he didn't force anything. He was slated to start and the team opted to go with Price. "Did not take the ball" makes it sound like it was his choice. Cora chose Price likely because Sale had been battling shoulder inflammation, and reduced velocity, and was fucking hospitalized not two weeks before. He was throwing four or five mph slower. They were up 3-1 already, it's not like the series was in immediate jeopardy. Sale was going to take the ball the next game if they lost. And the "3 days rest" thing is a little dramatic, too: Price threw 13 pitches 3 days before, not 95.

I mean, for christ's sake, the guy was literally on the mound when they won the World Series. He struck out the side in the ninth inning. It's not like he disappeared or sulked because he was hurt.

It's up to you guys if you want to hate on the guy. He does seem like an asshole. But there's this whole weirdly judgmental tack that people take about this stuff where the implication is that he was a wuss or a coward or something. (thus the immensely clever "what a dirt dog!!" sarcasm).

If 2018 were the only World Series we'd won this century, the guy would be a saint.
 

Frisbetarian

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Again, I don't quibble with the "dependable" thing, but with how angry and entitled people are about getting to watch an injured guy pitch.

And he didn't force anything. He was slated to start and the team opted to go with Price. "Did not take the ball" makes it sound like it was his choice. Cora chose Price likely because Sale had been battling shoulder inflammation, and reduced velocity, and was fucking hospitalized not two weeks before. He was throwing four or five mph slower. They were up 3-1 already, it's not like the series was in immediate jeopardy. Sale was going to take the ball the next game if they lost. And the "3 days rest" thing is a little dramatic, too: Price threw 13 pitches 3 days before, not 95.

I mean, for christ's sake, the guy was literally on the mound when they won the World Series. He struck out the side in the ninth inning. It's not like he disappeared or sulked because he was hurt.

It's up to you guys if you want to hate on the guy. He does seem like an asshole. But there's this whole weirdly judgmental tack that people take about this stuff where the implication is that he was a wuss or a coward or something. (thus the immensely clever "what a dirt dog!!" sarcasm).

If 2018 were the only World Series we'd won this century, the guy would be a saint.
Think a little about what you know about Chris Sale’s personality and how he would react if he were told he was not getting the game 5 start. Do you think he’d be fine with it? I will not discuss what I know about the game 5 start or how, but am quite comfortable with how I worded my post.

Now consider how Red Sox fans would have reacted if the roles were reversed and Price didn’t take the ball on his normal start forcing Sale to go on short rest. That’s where my dirt dog comment came from, and if it makes you angry… good.

Edit to say you are dead wrong about when Price last started before game 5 of the 2018 World Series. Sale started game 1 on 10/23, Price game 2 and threw 88 pitches on 10/24, then Price pitched in relief throwing 13 pitches in game 3 on 10/26, and ultimately got the start Sale didn’t make on 10/28. Maybe your calendar is different, but on mine Price’s game 5 start was on 3 days rest following his game 2 start, and was just 1 day of rest removed from his relief appearance. If you’re going to rage post, at least get your facts right.
 
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lexrageorge

Member
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Jul 31, 2007
20,608
Think a little about what you know about Chris Sale’s personality and how he would react if he were told he was not getting the game 5 start. Do you think he’d be fine with it? I will not discuss what I know about the game 5 start or how, but am quite comfortable with how I worded my post.
What choice would Sale have? Cora makes those decisions, and if he had reasons to swap Sale and Price, so be it. Sale didn't have "veto power" over Cora's decisions. The whole thing is a nothing burger - Price started and Sale pitched the 9th, and the Sox won. As noted, Sale was going to start Game 6.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
8,522
Think a little about what you know about Chris Sale’s personality and how he would react if he were told he was not getting the game 5 start. Do you think he’d be fine with it? I will not discuss what I know about the game 5 start or how, but am quite comfortable with how I worded my post.

Now consider how Red Sox fans would have reacted if the roles were reversed and Price didn’t take the ball on his normal start forcing Sale to go on short rest. That’s where my dirt dog comment came from, and if it makes you angry… good.

Edit to say you are dead wrong about when Price last started before game 5 of the 2018 World Series. Sale started game 1 on 10/23, Price game 2 and threw 88 pitches on 10/24, then Price pitched in relief throwing 13 pitches in game 3 on 10/26, and ultimately got the start Sale didn’t make on 10/28. Maybe your calendar is different, but on mine Price’s game 5 start was on 3 days rest following his game 2 start, and was just 1 day of rest removed from his relief appearance. If you’re going to rage post, at least get your facts right.
I'm not rage-posting. I'll even own doing some wonky math! You're right! Price was on limited rest!

What you do or do not claim to know doesn't change the fact that he was hospitalized and throwing with noticeably weakened stuff. If the team opted to let Price start--or even god forbid, Sale came to Cora and said "you know what, I'm hurting, my stuff is diminished, maybe it's best if Price takes the ball" -- I mean, that ended up being in the best interests of the team, didn't it? Price pitched a stunner, and Sale had clearly been running on fumes. What is so morally offensive about letting someone who is cooking with gas take the ball?

And why would have Price forced Sale to go on short rest? This counterfactual is completely silly. He wasn't sick and injured, Sale was.

Again, my issue isn't with his "dependability," I've ceded that ground from the start, it's with the joy people get on here about making judgments on the guy's effort or willingness to play. He pitched all postseason with clearly diminished stuff and shoulder inflammation. If you all were being even remotely charitable about all of this, you might even wonder if his continuing to pitch through that postseason in the pursuit of a championship contributed to his issues in 2020, and his issues with staying on the mound over the next four years! But no, it's all he's not a dirt dog becaus he wasn't constantly available.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,815
Again, Chris Sale's CY season got the Braves nothing, because once again he predictably broke down and could not pitch in the playoffs. 0-2 in the postseason and there goes the year.

I have never once regretting getting Sale out of Boston. He remains a frustrating player who can never, ever be counted upon.
Without his injury he still wouldn't have pitched in the playoffs because he would have pitched the last day of the season.....
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
Look up his stats, Hudson had a great career. The rest of your points, I don't know what to tell you. His 6 years in Oakland they won the division 4 times with 3 100-win seasons. He played in the playoffs nine years and won a world series. Whether you happen to know about any of this is absolutely not the point of the Hall.
I guess I revealed my East Coast bias there...

But looking at Hudson's bRef page, he's the epitome of very good, not great. Very little black ink, far fewer CY Young votes.

His career WAR was impressive, but he had few great years. He just put up a decent season year after year. Like a rich man's Bronson Arroyo. Not a Hall of Famer.

Sale, on the other hand, has gotten to the same WAR through a crazy roller coaster of greatness and injury. His page is loaded with black ink and CY Young votes.

One interesting thing is Sale and Hudson are tied for grey ink, but Sale has three times as much black ink.

The biggest difference in their careers, to me, is that Sale had top6 CY Young finishes 8 times, with one win. Hudson had top6 finishes 4 times. Sale got MVP votes four times, Hudson only once. I think the higher highs from a career like Sale's just deserve Hall of Fame consideration more than high quality consistency. There is something to be said for Hudson's additional thousand innings pitched, but we aren't building a team, we're comparing HoF resumes.

I literally forgot who Hudson was, but looking him up, I understand why... His career was mostly boring (and playing most of his games after I went to bed didn't help in the "Niastri Fame Metric," either).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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You aren’t giving Hudson enough credit, he was an excellent pitcher. He certainly wouldn’t be the worst pitcher in the HOF- but I agree that his career isn’t incredibly memorable. But I think that’s where the postseason stuff comes into play- guys who performed on the biggest stage are just remembered more; Madison Bumgarner vs Tim Hudson, I guess.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I guess I revealed my East Coast bias there...

But looking at Hudson's bRef page, he's the epitome of very good, not great. Very little black ink, far fewer CY Young votes.

His career WAR was impressive, but he had few great years. He just put up a decent season year after year. Like a rich man's Bronson Arroyo. Not a Hall of Famer.

Sale, on the other hand, has gotten to the same WAR through a crazy roller coaster of greatness and injury. His page is loaded with black ink and CY Young votes.

One interesting thing is Sale and Hudson are tied for grey ink, but Sale has three times as much black ink.

The biggest difference in their careers, to me, is that Sale had top6 CY Young finishes 8 times, with one win. Hudson had top6 finishes 4 times. Sale got MVP votes four times, Hudson only once. I think the higher highs from a career like Sale's just deserve Hall of Fame consideration more than high quality consistency. There is something to be said for Hudson's additional thousand innings pitched, but we aren't building a team, we're comparing HoF resumes.

I literally forgot who Hudson was, but looking him up, I understand why... His career was mostly boring (and playing most of his games after I went to bed didn't help in the "Niastri Fame Metric," either).
Ha, yeah, you kinda had to be there to appreciate him fully I guess, but he was at the top of the sport for a while.
 

brownsox

New Member
Mar 11, 2007
70
His career WAR was impressive, but he had few great years. He just put up a decent season year after year. Like a rich man's Bronson Arroyo. Not a Hall of Famer.

Sale, on the other hand, has gotten to the same WAR through a crazy roller coaster of greatness and injury. His page is loaded with black ink and CY Young votes.
Interestingly, Hudson had two seasons with a higher bWAR than Sale’s best season. (Sale had more excellent seasons than Hudson, but Hudson’s best seasons were a match for Sale’s).

One interesting thing is Sale and Hudson are tied for grey ink, but Sale has three times as much black ink.
Yep, in part because Sale didn’t have to pitch in the same league as prime Pedro Martinez.

I get that Hudson, like Appier for example, is kind of easily forgotten, and I get why, but he was very good. (Also better in the postseason than I’d remembered, 3.69 ERA in 13 starts).
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
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Ha, yeah, you kinda had to be there to appreciate him fully I guess, but he was at the top of the sport for a while.
Hudson, Zito, Mulder was going to be an incredible rotation for a decade plus. And they were really, really good. But all they really have to show for it is four straight ALDS losses. By the time they got back to the playoffs in 2006, Hudson was gone, Mulder was starting to be injured a bunch and Zito was the "good not great" pitcher he had always been.
 

brownsox

New Member
Mar 11, 2007
70
Hudson, Zito, Mulder was going to be an incredible rotation for a decade plus. And they were really, really good. But all they really have to show for it is four straight ALDS losses. By the time they got back to the playoffs in 2006, Hudson was gone, Mulder was starting to be injured a bunch and Zito was the "good not great" pitcher he had always been.
Mulder was with the Cards by then too. It’s interesting - of the three of them, Hudson was the first to arrive, he was the one with the most modest pedigree (Mulder was the second overall pick in the draft and Zito went ninth overall; Hudson was an eleventh-rounder and never a big prospect IIRC) and he lasted the longest of the three and had the best career by some measure.