Others have noted that aside from Hudson, the other three have had off field issues helping to keep them out (which is true, and obvious in Schilling’s and Clemens’s cases, less clear-cut but likely in Pettitte’s who is borderline anyway). But there are plenty more examples of recent 60~ bWAR pitchers not getting much of a sniff from the voters:
Kevin Brown, 68
David Cone, 62
Mark Buehrle, 60
Bret Saberhagen, 59
Chuck Finley, 58
Dave Stieb, 57
Frank Tanana, 57
Kevin Appier, 55
Of these, Brown had off-field issues (just being a jerk) but I don’t think the others did. Sale probably has better vibes - “dominance” etc - but his resume isn’t a slam dunk.
Johan Santana, by way of comparison, is at 52 WAR.
Exactly this. Sale’s career record is 135-83. We all know the game has changed, standards for pitcher wins and losses have changed, and that W/L was always a highly imperfect way (at best) to measure pitcher value.
But historically, only seven guys have made the Hall of Fame with fewer than 200 wins (not counting Eckersley who had 197): Jack Chesbro, Ed Walsh, Rube Waddell, Lefty Gomez, Sandy Koufax, Addie Joss, and Dizzy Dean. All of them were Veterans Committee selections (and mostly glaring mistakes) except Koufax and Dean. And they all had better records than Sale - he’d have to go 15-0 to match Dean, for example, or 29-4 to match Koufax.
Sale’s candidacy is going to depend on how quickly voters understand how much the game has changed, and how soon they start applying standards they didn’t apply to Cone, Saberhagen, or Santana.
I don't think Sale is a slam dunk, but let me make a case.
In the 15 year span from 1995 until 2010, there were 11 pitchers with 50 or more WAR, and 11 with 175 or more wins. In the same 15 year span from 2010 (Sale's debut) until 2024 (yes I recognize there is a year of overlap, but it's early and I am lazy), there have been 3 pitchers with 50 or more WAR, and four with 175 wins. It is hard to overstate just how much the concept of pitching has changed in such a short period of time.
Among pitchers with 200+ starts since his debut, Sale ranks 3rd in ERA (3.04), 3rd in FIP (2.89), 2nd in K/9 (11.1, only Snell is higher), T9th in BB/9 (2.1), and 2nd in K/BB 5.31, only deGrom is better).
I think the three guys above him in WAR (Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander) are all absolute, no doubt locks for the Hall of Fame. I also think the guy right behind him (Greinke) likely gets in. Cole will likely surpass Sale at some point in many of these categories (and obviously has more wins, but has also played for, shocker, much more consistently good teams). DeGrom has a chance to pass him in some as well, if the duct tape (and is actually one of the two players leading Sale in FIP).
If you change the criteria to the entire careers of pitchers who debuted between 2005 and 2012, Sale is 5th in WAR, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, and far and away first in K:BB (he is at 5.31, 2nd is Kluber at 4.69). I think he is clearly a top 5 pitcher among his "generation", and if you put a gun to my head I would probably place him 4th behind Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander.
I think if he retired today, he has a pretty good case.
IF (yes, that word is doing a lot work here) he has seasons at about 60% of what he did this year with the Braves in the final two years of his contracts, he is up to ~1750 K's and ~155 wins. If that happens, I think he becomes a shoe in.