Man, being a major contributor to a WS title doesn't buy you the same respect around here that it used to!
I'm grateful for 2018. It's pretty much everything that took place after that I tired of.
Ok, that's a good way of saying it and I somewhat agree - results do have to matter. I guess where I come from is there are plenty of trades/signings/draft picks etc that turn out to be busts/losers/insert another word here that I dont blame the GM for. If the consensus amongst fans, local experts, national people at the time of a specific move was that said move was a winner...but eventually turns out to be a loser, is that the GMs fault? Not meant to be specific about Sale/Grissom by the way. But yeah, aggregate wise I understand that if a GM makes 10 moves that day of people love, but all suck down the road...well yeah. The GM probably isn't very good!
Really bad? In order to that you would have to assume Chris Sale would be healthy all season in Boston and the Red Sox had some knowledge that a 35 YO would finally bounce back after 3 years. Also you need to assume Chris Sale is the difference between where the team is now to a real competitor (He isn't). At best the Red Sox are neck and neck against KC for the wild card instead of 3.5 back.
Ha, this was a fun overreaction to read. It was a reference to continued poor injury luck and a half-serious one at that.
This general line of thought and assessment would be more fitting in *this* specific instance if there was anybody (especially among the ones getting overly-defensive imo about what I stated here) that would actually make the honest claim, right now, that they *wouldn't* want this trade back if given the opportunity.
IMO there's zero chance he would be effective and healthy in Boston this year. That to me seems obvious. He simply couldn't do it. Maybe the Braves have tweaked his program in some way to ensure his health. Whatever the reason, there's zero chance he would be healthy for the Sox this year, never mind healthy and effective.
In these cases it certainly could be a GM's fault. He's supposed to know more than the fans, media, etc. And if it turns out to be largely an issue of poor evalulation, then why isn't it his fault? To be clear, I'm not talking about injuries or some other outlier factor. Just straight up poor performance.
I'm leery of going down this road unless we have explicit knowledge that allows us to draw a straight line from one move to another. In your hypothetical, I guess that mitigates the trade evaluation if we know for sure that Grissom was why Yorke was dealt. And honestly, that probably only works for me if Grissom also performs well. Trading one guy because you have another guy, and that other guy doesn't pan out, but some other other guy does, seems like a sketchy way to mark a trade as good.
From that lens yes I agree. Right now, given where sox team currently is and Sale/Grissom are, I'd want the trade back. But if Crawford/Houck dont pitch like Cy Young contenders the first half of the season having Sale wouldnt make us contenders. So stuff like that...and...
The above rabbit holes are exactly why I try to weigh time of specific move assessment so heavily. Revisionist stuff gets into murkier and murkier waters. So, for me, I try to keep thing as simple as possible. Im willing to die on this hill...though I recognize I may be on it alone
By that I really do mean it's just the way I like to view these things, not the way I think they should be viewed.
I was looking at the difference in their W-L records, to be honest, just to keep it simple. Sale: 14-3, Pivetta, 5-8. 9 game difference in the win column, 5 game difference in the loss column = 7 games difference. So off by one. But that's not really how it should work so let's do a deeper dive.
Well that's how I feel as well, and I was ok with the trade for this reason. But all I'm saying is that if the Sox had THIS Sale, they'd be in really good shape and a legit contender. But it's an open question as to whether they'd ever get THIS Chris Sale.
Yes, we are in agreement. I suspect if he were still in Boston, he'd lead the league in televisions punched again, but nothing else.
Nit: the scene is from The Gumball Rally, not the Cannonball Run and IMO, it’s the better of the two movies.
I think "currently projecting out" is a non-sequitur at best. There's today, when Atlanta has an advantage. There's projecting out, which is something different. If Atlanta fails to make the playoffs, did they flush 10 million dollars down the toilet?
8 games assumes a lot of luck the numbers don't match. You would expect about 3-4 game swing which would just get them to KC line on the Wild card. You are also assuming Sale is going to be healthy for the playoffs.
There's only a 3.5 game difference between the Royals at WC3 and the Orioles and Yankees who are tied for the best record in the AL. If you're neck and neck with the wild card teams this year you're absolutely a contender.
Maybe this is just a "feel" thing, but I think going from a below-average pitcher to the guy who's been the best pitcher in baseball this year is probably worth more than 3-4 games. Because from what you're saying, the difference between a team with 5 Cy Young winners in the rotation and the team with 5 below average starters is "only" 15-20 games?
Your level of certainty is astounding.
If Atlanta misses the playoffs, did they flush their whole payroll down the toilet?
That's the difference between 80 wins and 100. That's a lot, and it's not accounting for the impact of all the hitters, defense, and relievers. Really good teams are better than bad teams in lots of ways.
I think we're all in agreement about how awful the talent has been, but my issue is the timing of it. I don't think Breslow was expecting to contend this year. Do you think he would have made the trade if Mayer was in AAA or saved the Sale bullet for somewhere else?
I guess this is where it comes down to preference. If they are both major league caliber players, what's the gap in talent going to be? I don't think it will be much either way, but that's just my opinion.
A post declaring a trade a total loss without regard to any factors other than how the two players are performing on August 19 demands the narrowest of prisms through which to respond.
We are assuming all other things besides the starting pitching are equal.
Don't take the "baseball gods" too seriously. It's just a reference to the fact that the last three seasons have included painful waves of injury, particularly in the rotation and middle infield. It wrecked the last two teams' chances for a wildcard, however slim, and has cost this team a real inside shot, while Chris Sale of all people is suddenly uninjured. For the things you point out to be true at the same time is absolutely correct. I'm among the more bullish people here on the near future, I think?, for the reasons you cite. But even this year's rotation injuries have contributed to this team struggling since the ASG. Even the stopgap guy we got to ease the pressure immediately hurt himself. That doesn't seem excessive to you? After the last two years of rotation injuries, basta!
To the bolded. That's not true. They'd have about $10M less in their coffers because they'd be on the hook for all of Sale's salary ($27.5M real cash, $25.6M counted toward the tax cap).
You mention Mayer, when he comes up, I don't think there's any place for quibbling about Yorke vs Grissom, I'm not sure either one of them would be looking at a starting spot. Unless Story's injury funk continues, he's probably at SS most days and pushes Mayer to 2b. There's also Hamilton (probably a good bench guy with positional versatility and massive late inning value for his speed), so either of Grissom or Yorke would be looking at a small role.
Valid! I suppose they would say that future players are too uncertain. I think they probably saw a way to stabilize the position in the short term… best laid plans and all that. If he’d been healthy and done well, Grissom would have had value either for the Sox or in a trade. But yeah.
In terms of "trade analysis," "thus far" is as close to meaningless as possible.
I guess I don’t buy that difference given their very different track records at each level. Yorke’s bat just disappeared for most of an entire season *twice.*
I think this is exactly the point. Only a time traveler could have seen Chris Sale turning back the clock this year. And to be honest, if he were still in Boston, as someone else pointed out, he would’ve tripped over his cat and injured himself again. There was no way he was going to be CHRIS FUCKING SALE as a Red Sox.
Honus Wagner could have been healthy, but they almost literally did not have a second baseman they could depend on when that trade was made.
