Cuban: NFL 10 years from implosion

RG33 · Mar 24, 2014

I don't see how this makes much sense. Moreso than any sports league, the NFL has an automatic built-in group of folks who are going to watch based on fantasy football and sports gambling. If they played games on Wednesday mornings at 5am EST, they would get decent ratings. Of course revenues will peak at some point and mediums to watch will change, but the NFL (with the Krafts being at the forefront) has been quite innovative and ahead of the curve historically. I'd be willing to bet Mark Cuban would JUMP at the chance to buy into the National Football League.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Mar 24, 2014

As long as it's fair (competitive balance), physical, and entertaining, NFL will be just fine. I don't see what exactly they're taking "too far," other than maybe protection of the QB.

It's possible Cuban will be right in 10 years, but there's nothing to suggest that now. They don't play Fri/Sat/Tue/Wed really.

And yes, too much $ in fantasy and other gambling.

JimD · Mar 24, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
His argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me....the NFL airs games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday (it's unlikely they'd ever air games on Saturday, as he suggests). The NBA airs games...every night.

I understand his point. A big part of the NFL's appeal is that the coverage on Sundays and Monday night is an event. The more they water down the product, the more they risk diluting what is special about the current model.

j44thor · Mar 24, 2014

NFL is going to be in much better shape than the NBA in 10yrs. NBA is the sport in trouble, there is no competitive balance and very few people play NBA Fantasy BBall or gamble. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHL closing the gap a lot more on the NBA than the NBA getting closer to the NFL in 10yrs

The only thing that could slow down the NFL is labor unrest resulting in a work stoppage.

Old Fart Tree · Mar 24, 2014

Well, that and the fact that playing football is basically like murdering yourself in slow motion. That too.

Grin&MartyBarret · Mar 24, 2014

j44thor said:
NFL is going to be in much better shape than the NBA in 10yrs. NBA is the sport in trouble, there is no competitive balance and very few people play NBA Fantasy BBall or gamble. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHL closing the gap a lot more on the NBA than the NBA getting closer to the NFL in 10yrs

The only thing that could slow down the NFL is labor unrest resulting in a work stoppage.

Safety concerns are the elephant in the room as far as the future of the NFL goes. When/if it becomes apparent that even high school football players have an increased risk of CTE, fewer and fewer people will allow their children to play football, and fewer schools will take on the costs of insuring players. I, personally, suspect that football as a sport is going to have to undergo significant changes to survive longterm.

Meanwhile, the NBA has a much better international foothold than any other American league. I think the NBA is set up for sustained success. The NFL and the sport of football, in general, aren't long term winners in my mind.

bowiac · Mar 24, 2014

j44thor said:
NFL is going to be in much better shape than the NBA in 10yrs. NBA is the sport in trouble, there is no competitive balance and very few people play NBA Fantasy BBall or gamble. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHL closing the gap a lot more on the NBA than the NBA getting closer to the NFL in 10yrs

The only thing that could slow down the NFL is labor unrest resulting in a work stoppage.

Given the popularity of basketball worldwide, I'd bet against this. It's hard to bet against the NFL, but if anyone is positioned well to challenge them, it's the NBA.

MentalDisabldLst · Mar 24, 2014

"when you got a good thing and you get greedy, it always, always, always, always, always turns against you."

This is one area where Cuban has some credibility: when he sold Broadcom to Yahoo, he immediately hedged his position as soon as his restricted stock allowed him to do so, which let him sell his upside in the Yahoo stock in return for downside protection. When the crash came, he was still (nearly) a billionaire, unlike all the other people who thought the market could only go up and up. As an entrepreneur, he is open to risk, but as an investor he is very risk-averse.

The NFL has made a bunch of big gambles recently, like London and Toronto, as well as little things like rookie-contract pay scales and . Teams have made gambles like PSLs. But nobody is taking concussions very seriously at all, with common-sense options like padded helmets, nor catering to the many people out there who want to stream games rather than watch over cable. It's practically impossible for an ordinary family to afford season tickets and attend 8 times a year, not to mention that the in-person viewing experience is a far shittier one than just sitting at home in your couch watching with a beer that didn't cost $10 and 30 minutes of waiting in line.

I think there are a bunch of systemic risks to the NFL's dominance out there, with overpricing and safety chief among them. While the floor is very high (given fantasy / gambling / persistent popularity of college football), there may not be a lot of additional upside. I'm not sure I'd want to buy an NFL team right now, given that baked into the price would be the continuing of the revenue trends and continuation of the TV deals and stadium deals that may prove unsustainable. Perhaps Cuban would get a better deal in 10 years, in buying the Jaguars or Bengals or something, than he would today.

fairlee76 · Mar 24, 2014

Old Fart Tree said:
Well, that and the fact that playing football is basically like murdering yourself in slow motion. That too.

Yes. I think the head injury thing is a much bigger issue going forward than anything else the NFL will face

snowmanny · Mar 24, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
His argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me....the NFL airs games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday (it's unlikely they'd ever air games on Saturday, as he suggests). The NBA airs
games...every night.

Of course the NFL used to have Saturday games in December and it was terrific. Way better than the ACC Championship game or whatever.

uncannymanny · Mar 24, 2014

RGREELEY33 said:
Ithe NFL (with the Krafts being at the forefront) has been quite innovative and ahead of the curve historically.

I'm not sure I see this the same as you. Historically, the NFL has tied itself solely to cable subscriptions and packages and shunned the digital/on-demand services. MLB has been innovative and I see the NFL pulling up the rear of the pack in this regard.

Mugsy's Jock · Mar 24, 2014

I deeply believe that when somebody drops the big one, and only cockroaches are roaming the earth, the NFL will continue to be a colossally successful business for another 20 years or so. It's a beast. Expanding is what successful businesses do.

Yes, it's extraordinarily expensive cable programming, and cord-cutting is a terrifying spectre... but the TV rates will adjust to suit the most money they can squeeze out of the subscribing public. When it finds the ceiling, it'll stop.

The one thing that could bring the downfall of the league quicker, I think, is something medical. The death of a player(s) on the field could give advertisers pause, could bring in federal oversight of training and safety, and could deliver a great lead-in for 60 Minutes.

Devizier · Mar 24, 2014

"Nobody knows nothing"

William Goldman

soxfan121 · Mar 24, 2014

Cuban got into Jim Irsay's stash.

NortheasternPJ · Mar 24, 2014

No one can compete with the horrible product of the NBA.

uncannymanny · Mar 25, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
The difference is that there was huge demand for NFL Sunday TIcket; the league gets something like $700M in annual rights fees from DirecTV. MLB has been more innovative in putting their content on digital b/c they have so much of it and couldn't generate significant national rights fees for that content on TV. It's the difference in a league that has national appeal and one that has regional appeal.

I agree with all of this, however it also doesn't paint a picture of an "innovative" league. The NFL likely can't make the steps to move into a digital/streaming future (where they would theoretically make a fortune as well) precisely because of the above quoted deal.

dcmissle · Mar 25, 2014

Everyone has his problems. The NFL's are scientific and attitudinal on the health front, technological on the consumer front. The product is too damn good on TV. Were it not for the opportunity to share a few hours on a Sunday afternoon with my kids or wife, I'd surrender my tickets tomorrow and reclaim the rest of those hours on Sunday. But somebody has to continue doing what I am doing to keep the peak TV experience -- unless the League can come up with simulated fans in the stands.

MentalDisabldLst · Mar 25, 2014

dcmissle said:
But somebody has to continue doing what I am doing to keep the peak TV experience -- unless the League can come up with simulated fans in the stands.

We want you squeezed into those stands. We need you squeezed into those stands!

But no, seriously, there are long, LONG waiting lists for season tickets for just about every NFL team. Until such time as that changes, your view-at-home experience is not imperiled. Why not share those hours on a Sunday with your family from the comfort of your couch, with the option to Pause the DVR for bathroom breaks, rewind to see great plays again, and have your own selection of food and drink at much lower prices? Why not avoid the long drive both ways, the gas costs, the wait to park, and the interminable wait to get out of there after the game?

I get why people want to watch the NFL. I get why people like tailgating. I don't get why people think they absolutely have to be there in person to watch the game (or that it's a superior experience to watching on TV).

Otis Foster · Mar 25, 2014

Mugsys Jock said:
I deeply believe that when somebody drops the big one, and only cockroaches are roaming the earth, the NFL will continue to be a colossally successful business for another 20 years or so. It's a beast. Expanding is what successful businesses do.

Yes, it's extraordinarily expensive cable programming, and cord-cutting is a terrifying spectre... but the TV rates will adjust to suit the most money they can squeeze out of the subscribing public. When it finds the ceiling, it'll stop.

The one thing that could bring the downfall of the league quicker, I think, is something medical. The death of a player(s) on the field could give advertisers pause, could bring in federal oversight of training and safety, and could deliver a great lead-in for 60 Minutes.

"Expanding is what successful businesses do."

You forgot a word there - rationally. For it to work, there need to be contingency plans for all of the risks identified in this thread. I think dilution is a real concern. If you put the Pats and the Ravens on Thursday night, sure, I'd watch it, but for every one of those, there's the Bills and the Browns. When that comes up against 'True Detective' or 'Homeland', many viewers will bail without bothering to record on the DVR.

uncannymanny · Mar 25, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
If you aren't a TV sub, you won't be able to- and that's the position of every major sports league.

MLB and NHL do not require a TV subscription to watch games.

ShaneTrot · Mar 25, 2014

I think the problems come up from the bottom in football. My sons are 13 and 14. My oldest played 8th grade football, and the younger guy played rec. Neither one wants to play next year and we as their parents are OK with that. Why are so-so division 1 players crippling themselves for Michigan and Alabama?

soxfan121 · Mar 25, 2014

Bob Kraft replies (courtesy Don Banks, SI.com):

Kraft is the chairman of the NFL's broadcast committee, and just helped commissioner Roger Goodell negotiate a one-year deal with CBS to telecast a portion of the league's Thursday night package. Unsurprisingly, Kraft sees the NFL's expansion in terms of TV rights as anything but swine-like. Or "hoggy,'' if you will.

"Well, he's a very intelligent man -- I can only speak to what I know," Kraft said of Cuban. "We have pretty lucrative contracts going for another decade. We've doubled our income -- it's allowed us to have labor peace. We just did a Thursday night package -- the commissioner and I worked very hard on it. We had every media company work very hard to get a one-year deal, and the main thing they had to do was promote Thursday Night Football.

"We chose CBS because they're the No. 1 network with the most eyeballs. And that should hopefully allow us to double our ratings on the NFL Network. They'll be moving the Big Bang Theory from Thursday night, which is the No. 1 show on TV, to Monday night at 8 o'clock so they won't go against Monday Night Football again. And they'll move it back after our half-season package with them is over. I have great respect for Mr. Cuban, but I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion.''

And Kraft couldn't resist a final thrust of the dagger.

"If we have a problem, I hope it continues,'' he said, noting that 34 of the 35 most-watched primetime telecasts were NFL games in 2013.

I scored it Kraft, by TKO.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140324/2014-nfl-owners-meetings-rule-proposals/#ixzz2wzyJITHm

crystalline · Mar 25, 2014

Agred with MDL on all points but one: I think dilution is a significant risk. I suppose the NFL has run a few models to estimate the marginal return of adding games on an additional night, but I think its hard to predict how that affects consumer behavior in the long term: ten years out and beyond. I agree with Cuban here.

As MDL said, I wouldn't be surprised if Cuban wouldn't buy an NFL franchise now because he thinks they are overvalued due to them cashing in on the past decades' success. True that fantasy and gambling are going to drive continued interest, but I wouldn't be surprised if franchise values are lower in ten years.

cromulence · Mar 25, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
I don't think adding more games will hurt at all. Look at college football and how they've expanded. The sport has never been more popular.

Bills and Browns will only ever air on Thursday night, though. It gives those teams some exposure, and while they are usually crappy games- I think people who have a conflict will generally watch the game live and DVR the entertainment programming to watch later. Even airing on the NFL Net, those games did really solid #s.

College football is similar to baseball in that it's regionally popular. No one really gives much of a shit about it here in the DC area (obviously it exists but it's not a big thing like in the South). And I think college football is a great example of how dilution can be a problem. I'm biased because I don't like the product to begin with, but I dread the start of college football season because it means it will be shoved in my face non-stop for months. Saturdays are an endless ocean of shitty college games. They find a way to cram in games pretty much every night of the week. I see a college football game on and I groan. I don't think the NFL is there yet but they don't even want to get close to that territory. Right now, casual fans can tune in on Monday night because it's an event and they know the country is watching with them. If it keeps growing and expanding, that casual fan will get sick of it and tune out.

SMU_Sox · Mar 25, 2014

Unlike you I love college ball. The vast majority of games are on Saturday. Yes, you will have some weeks where there is a game on 4/5 week-nights. But with all the teams in college it's nice to have the ability to put some big games on a national stage during the work week.

Let me give you some examples:

Week 4: Auburn @ K-State (Th night)
Week 5: UCLA @ Arizona State AND TTech @ Okla State (2x Th night)
Week 14: LSU @ A&M (Th night)

Granted there are a lot of stinkers too but you can say the same for MNF and TNF.

cromulence · Mar 25, 2014

It's all about perspective. To me, it feels like I turn on ESPN2 on Thursday night at midnight Eastern and I get live coverage of Washington St vs. UTEP (pulled out of my ass). If you're a big fan of college football, that's great, but if you're not you think to yourself "holy shit there's always a college football game going on somewhere at any given moment" and you decide not to care about it. It might not even be totally fair or accurate but it creates a perception. Again, the NFL isn't there yet, but it could get there.

JMDurron · Mar 26, 2014

ShaneTrot said:
I think the problems come up from the bottom in football. My sons are 13 and 14. My oldest played 8th grade football, and the younger guy played rec. Neither one wants to play next year and we as their parents are OK with that. Why are so-so division 1 players crippling themselves for Michigan and Alabama?

I think this issue by overblown by the demographics of SoSH. As a general rule, we are more likely to be aware of and concerned about the long-term health implications of playing football, and we generally have the income and resulting educational options to provide a safer, and more probable path to economic success in life for our children than the average American.

Watching the MJD clip in the RB Depth thread brought this thought to mind. As long as there are significant groups of people, particularly in rural areas and urban environments where playing a potentially crippling game is still the most accessible and likely path to a lucrative career, and there is not a highly educated, medically aware family base to be concerned about the consequences of playing said game, there will be no shortage of high-end talent heading into both NCAA football and the NFL.

If, as I recall reading in a recent Sports Illustrated article, success at the highest level in many of these sports is determined as much by repetition/pattern recognition as it is physical talent, then I see there still being a high correlation between NFL success and low-income backgrounds, if only because those individuals are less likely to have competing outlets for their energies from an early age. The plural of anecdotes is obviously NOT "data", but I keep being struck by all of the player backgrounds that seem to start with "football was his escape from ____ at home/in his neighborhood." As long as we successfully continue to cultivate significant subsets of the population with no other easily accessible path towards success in life (to the point where Div I football programs are sometimes the first time kids are eating 3 square meals in a day), we will have no shortage of gladiators for our games, no matter what medical information comes out about the long-term impacts of playing football at the highest levels. The fact that SoSHers are less likely to let our children play the sport than we were a decade ago is completely irrelevant to the long-term growth potential of the NFL as long as we keep watching. I certainly haven't noticed a big drop-off in traffic in this subforum since the medical data has started coming out, and the number of "I don't watch anymore" posts seems remarkably low.

johnmd20 · Mar 26, 2014

If nothing else, these cord cutting fears are completely overblown. The cable business hasn't been this healthy in over a decade.

Football's biggest concern isn't dilution, or cord cutting, it's the fact that the players are brutalizing each other in the name of sport. If the league loses its luster, it will be because people won't want to watch that anymore.

H78 · Mar 26, 2014

johnmd20 said:
Football's biggest concern isn't dilution, or cord cutting, it's the fact that the players are brutalizing each other in the name of sport. If the league loses its luster, it will be because people won't want to watch that anymore.

I see what your point is, but I've seen this mentioned here and in other places fairly often lately and I just don't think it's ever going to lead to the eventual collapse of the NFL. People LOVE the hits, the brutality. Many won't outright admit it, but you see the bloodlust everywhere, including SoSH.

Read the Brandon Browner thread and you'll see dozens of people gushing about how awesome it is to once again have an intimidating presence in the secondary that'll lay people out. In fact, people have openly yearned for it since Rodney left. Maybe over time the violence will cause the NFL will lose some casual viewers, but I'd bet that >90% of current NFL fans are blissfully ignorant when it comes to the violent hits. As long as players sign waivers proclaiming that they understand the risks, injuries will always be viewed in a "well, he signed up for it and knew what he was getting himself into" sort of way.

As long as the NFL continues to claim that they're trying to make the sport safer, and elite athletes continue to willingly participate, the NFL isn't going anywhere.

TheRooster · Mar 26, 2014

I absolutely agree that the big concern is the health/brutality aspect. As the "where are they now?" segments are filled with dead/crippled guys instead of vigorous 50-60 year olds AND the 30for30's of the world publicize it, supporting the league feels mean or abusive. If the league can fix that, everything else is easy. The NFL is much different than the other leagues because of scarcity. That being said, sports fans clearly have an appetite for games on the 300 nights per year when the NFL is not playing, so several leagues can thrive simultaneously.

MentalDisabldLst · Mar 27, 2014

Jason Whitlock has an excellent column up talking about Cuban's remarks and the potential retreat of the NFL's popularity. He starts it with a ham-handed analogy, and ends it with a dumb statement or two, but in between, he lays out an argument that I think has some merit, and boils down to "all things that get overexposed end up setting expectations too high and people start realizing its fundamental flaws and tuning out". He believes the same happened with MLB, pro Boxing, the NBA, the NHL, and that the NFL is by no means immune. The particular horsemen of each pastime's apocalypse will frequently vary, but the root cause, he argues, is the same.

I encourage anyone interested by Cuban's argument to look at Whitlock's dressing-up and refining of that argument.

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