C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

Cesar Crespo

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Nesmith gives so much energy out there. He's wild to watch. How good can he be if all he adds is some better footwork on D and a respectable 3 ball?
His 3 may already be. We don't really have much of a sample size. He's not afraid to let it fly though.

This was a guy many thought of as the top shooter in his class.
 

benhogan

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Nesmith gives so much energy out there. He's wild to watch. How good can he be if all he adds is some better footwork on D and a respectable 3 ball?
his D isn't nearly as bad as his rep (regardless of his footwork).

He rotates, rebounds, and challenges shots with his length
 

slamminsammya

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his D isn't nearly as bad as his rep (regardless of his footwork).

He rotates, rebounds, and challenges shots with his length
I asked that thinking his D is already pretty decent. Plus 3+D guy from 14 would be huge for this team with Smart's contract coming up and the Tatum max kicking in.
 

lovegtm

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I used Wesley Matthews as my comp here before the season, but he seems more explosive than Matthews.
I think everyone is pretty surprised by his athleticism. I've been surprised on the downside by how awkward his setup is on spot-up 3s, but I'm willing to attribute that to being the focal point of the offense at Vandy and shooting a ton on the move.

I keep saying I expect a lot of summer improvement from him, but it's pretty important that he's been able to get through the season healthy and make strides despite the suboptimal conditions.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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An underrated play tonight was that little baseline pull-up jumper he hit, I believe off the dribble attacking a close-out, late in the game. Nothing spectacular obviously, but it's the kind of in-between play you only make if you are feeling more comfortable on the court. The rookie move if the initial outside shot isn't there tends to be an out of control bull-rush to the rim or maybe a panicked floater. That shot was a signal to me that he is actually taking time now to breathe.

The Eurostep was very close to another such play. He mostly nailed it, but rushed the final lay-in just a bit and shorted it.

The balls to the wall hustle plays obviously pop off the screen, but that's the kind of stuff you want to see no matter what. It is the calm, collected, smooth plays that will see him hit his ceiling. If he can get the outside shot fully squared away, there is something there.
 

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I think everyone is pretty surprised by his athleticism. I've been surprised on the downside by how awkward his setup is on spot-up 3s, but I'm willing to attribute that to being the focal point of the offense at Vandy and shooting a ton on the move.
I think at least part of it is/was lack of confidence, you can see him overthink and hesitate on quite a few open looks.

His footwork needs work on both ends of the court, but there’s some pretty good upside there. He’s going to be a perfect fit next to the Jay’s, IMO.
 

radsoxfan

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The balls to the wall hustle plays obviously pop off the screen, but that's the kind of stuff you want to see no matter what. It is the calm, collected, smooth plays that will see him hit his ceiling.
I agree, the juxtaposition between Nesmith the last couple games and Semi/Grant/Romeo in those situations is jarring.

None of those players are making any sort of calm, collected, smooth offensive plays. After an outside shot pump fake, you just pray they pass before they blindly drive into the paint for a turnover/brick.
 

slamminsammya

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I wish play tracking data on NBA.com also included each player's distribution of ball-to-rim time on their long range shots to indicate what kind of arc they give. My impression is Nesmith's 3 ball seems quite flat compared to most good shooters.
 

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2nd really good game for Nesmith in a row. He also played big minutes at the end of the game and showed up huge. Had a big steal that won the game.

Obviously the night was Tatum's, but Nesmith has shown a lot the last 2 games and is starting to look like a lottery pick.
Lightbulb....On!! Overnight this kid began playing with confidence and looking comfortable out there. He had one catch-and-shoot that you knew it was going down on his rise. First time I’ve seen this kid play with confidence. These next couple weeks will be interesting to see if he can sustain his energy from the last two games. Earlier in the year he slipped back quite a bit before being benched but he hadn’t ever shown the confidence he is now.
 

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With Tristan Thompson in shape, and Nesmith big enough to pressure checks, the cs were doiong what Brad likes on D, lots of switching, shocking the ballscreen, Nesmith was both he double guy, and the guy finding checks. He is long enough, and aggressive enough to be the guy going to double, allowing the more experienced guys to direct traffic, find shooters. Most encouirging was after he closed people out he kept then in front. Scal hit the nail on the head that the Spurs vaunted passing didn't happen once the Cs controlled drives.
 

lovegtm

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Lightbulb....On!! Overnight this kid began playing with confidence and looking comfortable out there. He had one catch-and-shoot that you knew it was going down on his rise. First time I’ve seen this kid play with confidence. These next couple weeks will be interesting to see if he can sustain his energy from the last two games. Earlier in the year he slipped back quite a bit before being benched but he hadn’t ever shown the confidence he is now.
There will likely be 2 steps forward, 1 step back kind of stuff, but you can't fake what he's been showing. I also love how big he plays, in the physical sense.
 

lovegtm

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With Tristan Thompson in shape, and Nesmith big enough to pressure checks, the cs were doiong what Brad likes on D, lots of switching, shocking the ballscreen, Nesmith was both he double guy, and the guy finding checks. He is long enough, and aggressive enough to be the guy going to double, allowing the more experienced guys to direct traffic, find shooters. Most encouirging was after he closed people out he kept then in front. Scal hit the nail on the head that the Spurs vaunted passing didn't happen once the Cs controlled drives.
He did a good job identifying the shooter after a couple doubles to X out and close to the right guy. Might see Brad do some more frenetic defensive schemes with Nesmith on the court.
 

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Lightbulb....On!! Overnight this kid began playing with confidence and looking comfortable out there. He had one catch-and-shoot that you knew it was going down on his rise. First time I’ve seen this kid play with confidence. These next couple weeks will be interesting to see if he can sustain his energy from the last two games. Earlier in the year he slipped back quite a bit before being benched but he hadn’t ever shown the confidence he is now.
That (lightbulb) was my thought watching him play tonight. Something clicked for him and he looks like a different player now.

I hope he can maintain this enough so that the Celtics can play him a lot down the stretch.
2nd really good game for Nesmith in a row. He also played big minutes at the end of the game and showed up huge. Had a big steal that won the game.

Obviously the night was Tatum's, but Nesmith has shown a lot the last 2 games and is starting to look like a lottery pick.
Worth noting, BTW, that Nesmith picked up his 5th foul at the halfway mark in the 4th quarter last night. He played the rest of the game (11 minutes) with 5 fouls and still managed to stay in the game and make key plays on both ends.
The point of getting Parker was to eat up the pathetic minutes of Nesmith and Langford.

It's a much better outcome long term for Nesmith to eat up the pathetic minutes of Langford and Parker :).
Not really. Parker is a big, Nesmith and Langford are wings. Parker was getting minutes while Time Lord was hurt, but not so much after his return. Nesmith/Langford get minutes from other Celtics wings or Walker (with Smart sliding over to the point).
 

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It's cool how excited the other C's, especially Tatum and Brown, seem to be about Nesmith's emergence.
 

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Good point about his play after the 5th foul. I did not realize he was in that position. Watching him emerge now is kind of like watching TL emerge earlier in the season. Seeing two players do that in one year is special.
 

benhogan

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With Tristan Thompson in shape, and Nesmith big enough to pressure checks, the cs were doiong what Brad likes on D, lots of switching, shocking the ballscreen, Nesmith was both he double guy, and the guy finding checks. He is long enough, and aggressive enough to be the guy going to double, allowing the more experienced guys to direct traffic, find shooters. Most encouirging was after he closed people out he kept then in front. Scal hit the nail on the head that the Spurs vaunted passing didn't happen once the Cs controlled drives.
TT did a very good job switching on the backline.
There will likely be 2 steps forward, 1 step back kind of stuff, but you can't fake what he's been showing. I also love how big he plays, in the physical sense.
You can't really underestimate his length/reach combined with his ability to rotate, strength to switch on anybody, and challenge shots. It makes up for his awkward/rookie footwork

The idea for the future is to get Romeo (next season's business probably) to be a better version than Nesmith on D. Have waves of long, stretchy wings running all over the court getting into passing lanes. In hindsight, Grant + Carsen for Thybulle doesn't feel too clever.
 

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The idea for the future is to get Romeo (next season's business probably) to be a better version than Nesmith on D. Have waves of long, stretchy wings running all over the court getting into passing lanes. In hindsight, Grant + Carsen for Thybulle doesn't feel too clever.
I love how his length plays even with a Romeo on the court too. There's a lot of overlap in size, but I think that the latter will be the smaller, quicker version and potential combo ballhandler type. Nesmith will be able to handle bigger guys. Both bring the motor, which is really awesome to watch.

Thybulle? Ha, forgot about him.
 

amarshal2

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The thing that stood out for me offensively was that he was cutting hard to the basket so frequently. His teammates didn’t find him but that’ll come in time. What did happen is it out him in position for some put backs or loose balls on missed shots that were really critical. There are more times he won’t get those balls and will be out of position but he runs so hard that I think he’ll recover back on defense better than most to make up for it.
 

slamminsammya

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The thing that stood out for me offensively was that he was cutting hard to the basket so frequently. His teammates didn’t find him but that’ll come in time. What did happen is it out him in position for some put backs or loose balls on missed shots that were really critical. There are more times he won’t get those balls and will be out of position but he runs so hard that I think he’ll recover back on defense better than most to make up for it.
Yes! There was a play towards the end where Jaylen drove to the hoop and Nesmith perfectly timed a cut that had him wide open but it being Jaylen he didn't spot the pass in time and went for the layup. Nesmith ended up getting the putback but the cut was fantastic.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The idea for the future is to get Romeo (next season's business probably) to be a better version than Nesmith on D.
Meh, Langford should spend the offseason learning to play PG and improving his offense. If his O doesn't improve, he's not really playable. At least not every night.
 

TripleOT

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I was down on Nesmith, mostly because he was billed as a sniper, but mostly looked like he had no idea how to put the ball in the basket.

He seems like a different offensive player the past few games, shooting the ball definitively. The right baseline 10 footer he made in the comeback win really impressed me. Any other time this season, he airmails that shot.

A high energy wing who can play scrappy defense and put up opportunity points is exactly what this team needs. Hopefully Aaron can keep it up. He will have to show that he can heat up quickly off the bench if he’s going to be a factor in he playoffs, where every possession is important
 

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I was down on Nesmith, mostly because he was billed as a sniper, but mostly looked like he had no idea how to put the ball in the basket.

He seems like a different offensive player the past few games, shooting the ball definitively. The right baseline 10 footer he made in the comeback win really impressed me. Any other time this season, he airmails that shot.

A high energy wing who can play scrappy defense and put up opportunity points is exactly what this team needs. Hopefully Aaron can keep it up. He will have to show that he can heat up quickly off the bench if he’s going to be a factor in he playoffs, where every possession is important
Yeah the game has slowed down materially for him. You're right--he might have whiffed on that shot earlier. He was rushing everything.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah the game has slowed down materially for him. You're right--he might have whiffed on that shot earlier. He was rushing everything.
He did have that one air ball after the good deke. It didn't effect him at all though. I think that was vs OKC.
 

benhogan

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Someone mentioned up thread that Nesmith in an 8 game stretch (in mid-Feb) where he averaged ~20mpg was a net positive in 7/8 of those contests (yea SSS). BUT then Aaron inexplicably followed that up with 6 DNPs and 8 mins of garbage time vs. Houston.

I'm skeptical of the "Lightbulb/on" theory, it's more like Nesmith is finally getting minutes. The highest MPG happened over the last 2 games.
 

radsoxfan

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Nesmith's offense has already flashed far better than anything Romeo has shown in his 2 abbreviated years. I've been pleasantly surprised with his overall D as well (hustle, size, length, athleticism, rotations). Still sometimes looks like a rookie out there, but not a total liability.

In the Romeo/Nesmith comparison, is Romeo's defense really that much better? I am willing to say Romeo has the edge, but to me seems fairly close so far.

And if their D is even remotely close, Nesmith overall seems a lot more exciting to me.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Someone mentioned up thread that Nesmith in an 8 game stretch (in mid-Feb) where he averaged ~20mpg was a net positive in 7/8 of those contests (yea SSS). BUT then Aaron inexplicably followed that up with 6 DNPs and 8 mins of garbage time vs. Houston.

I'm skeptical of the "Lightbulb/on" theory, it's more like Nesmith is finally getting minutes. The highest MPG happened over the last 2 games.
It's a real thing. It's also possible that he is in the midst of a good stretch that rookies have and he goes back to sucking for a bit. He still should have been playing until the lightbulb went off, assuming it did. We are still waiting for the lightbulb to go on for Grant Williams and Semi and it didn't prevent them from getting minutes.

I think his flashes the last 2 games are more of a sign of what is to come in 2022 rather than the rest of this season. Again though, he should still be playing regardless. Semi and Grant are bums.
 

NomarsFool

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It’s two games, but at the moment he is outplaying Fournier. When Kemba comes back, Brad will have some decisions to make.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Nesmith's offense has already flashed far better than anything Romeo has shown in his 2 abbreviated years. I've been pleasantly surprised with his overall D as well (hustle, size, length, athleticism, rotations). Still sometimes looks like a rookie out there, but not a total liability.

In the Romeo/Nesmith comparison, is Romeo's defense really that much better? I am willing to say Romeo has the edge, but to me seems fairly close so far.

And if their D is even remotely close, Nesmith overall seems a lot more exciting to me.
The last 2 games Nesmith look like a legit 30 minute rotation player contributing on both ends. Looking at Langford, you can see his ceiling/potential, but as of now the only thing he has shown in game is that he can be a mid bench guy for 15 minutes in a defensive role. His clock is ticking too.

While there are examples, players who don't really produce/improve in their first 2 years tend not to. The ones that do often are injured so he has that going for him. Even Terry Rozier had year 2 growth, despite being horrible. Not producing at all your rookie year doesn't mean much, but if you follow it up with little to no improvement in year 2.... it does. Grant Williams is also guilty of this but Grant Williams has had considerably more playing time and no injury exuse so I'm far more comfortable saying GW is all but gone in 2 more years if not traded away as filler.
 

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It’s two games, but at the moment he is outplaying Fournier. When Kemba comes back, Brad will have some decisions to make.
Not really.

Nesmith brings energy, shooting, chaotic defense, and a nice affinity for loose ball plays (garbage baskets, 50/50 balls, etc.). All good stuff, and stuff that this team needs.

Fournier brings shooting, but more importantly, he keeps the offensive flow. He's Hayward replacement. When Hayward was playing well, he would get other guys shots through his gravity or convert easy baskets when not swarmed. That type of guy really supports the alpha scorers by drawing some of his own attention and getting them the ball in rhythm. Smart kinda does that, but Fournier does it better (and 2 guys doing it is better than 1).

If Fournier continues to suck, yeah, he'll not get as many minutes for a while. But his role is way different and more important for this year than Nesmith's. And Brad will likely give him a long leash in order to hopefully work his way back into the Good Fournier pre-covid.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not really.

Nesmith brings energy, shooting, chaotic defense, and a nice affinity for loose ball plays (garbage baskets, 50/50 balls, etc.). All good stuff, and stuff that this team needs.

Fournier brings shooting, but more importantly, he keeps the offensive flow. He's Hayward replacement. When Hayward was playing well, he would get other guys shots through his gravity or convert easy baskets when not swarmed. That type of guy really supports the alpha scorers by drawing some of his own attention and getting them the ball in rhythm. Smart kinda does that, but Fournier does it better (and 2 guys doing it is better than 1).

If Fournier continues to suck, yeah, he'll not get as many minutes for a while. But his role is way different and more important for this year than Nesmith's. And Brad will likely give him a long leash in order to hopefully work his way back into the Good Fournier pre-covid.
Yeah, the top 7 are set in stone. After that, it's a free for all with PP the heavy favorite at 8 and AN maybe emerging as the 9. It will still be somewhat based on match ups though. I just don't see many match ups that favor Semi, Grant, Romeo and Parker and that's really why they haven't been playing lately.
 

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Yeah, the top 7 are set in stone. After that, it's a free for all with PP the heavy favorite at 8 and AN maybe emerging as the 9. It will still be somewhat based on match ups though. I just don't see many match ups that favor Semi, Grant, Romeo and Parker and that's really why they haven't been playing lately.
I agree. I think that Semi and Grant will be very specific matchup guys and will see a lot of DNP. I could see Parker when the offense is dead and could use a 2nd unit spark, but that should be limited.
 

lovegtm

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Nesmith's offense has already flashed far better than anything Romeo has shown in his 2 abbreviated years. I've been pleasantly surprised with his overall D as well (hustle, size, length, athleticism, rotations). Still sometimes looks like a rookie out there, but not a total liability.

In the Romeo/Nesmith comparison, is Romeo's defense really that much better? I am willing to say Romeo has the edge, but to me seems fairly close so far.

And if their D is even remotely close, Nesmith overall seems a lot more exciting to me.
After quality shot creation, shooting is THE premium skill in the NBA, so being more excited by Nesmith is very rational.
 

radsoxfan

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After quality shot creation, shooting is THE premium skill in the NBA, so being more excited by Nesmith is very rational.
The offense has been up and down (better recently of course) but I'm perhaps even more pleasantly surprised by the hustle and D.

I'm sure this is overly simplistic, but I got the sense before the season Romeo/Nesmith were sort of yin and yang complementary players. Nesmith projecting to have a big edge on offense but Romeo with the big edge on D.

If Nesmith's D is actually average or even a strength (even if it's a bit worse than Romeo's), that's great news.
 

radsoxfan

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While there are examples, players who don't really produce/improve in their first 2 years tend not to. The ones that do often are injured so he has that going for him. Even Terry Rozier had year 2 growth, despite being horrible. Not producing at all your rookie year doesn't mean much, but if you follow it up with little to no improvement in year 2.... it does. Grant Williams is also guilty of this but Grant Williams has had considerably more playing time and no injury exuse so I'm far more comfortable saying GW is all but gone in 2 more years if not traded away as filler.
A significant point in Romeo and Grant's favor is that their Year 1 and Year 2 don't really fit with anything we have seen in NBA history. Between the long layoff, the bubble, no summer league, and a shortened schedule... that's a really weird 2 years.

With Romeo especially, he has had the injury and had COVID, plus less college experience. Year 3 might be equivalent to Year 2.

Grant has had a pretty significant amount of playing time in 2 seasons and a lot more college experience, so might not apply to him as much.
 
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lovegtm

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A significant point in Romeo and Grant's favor is that their Year 1 and Year 2 don't really fit with anything we have seen in NBA history.Between the long layoff, the bubble, no summer league, and a shortened schedule... that's a really weird 2 years.

With Romeo especially, he has had the injury and had COVID, plus less college experience. Year 3 might be equivalent to Year 2.

Grant has had a pretty significant amount of playing time in 2 seasons and a lot more college experience, so might not apply to him as much.
Yeah, Grant has been given enough run that I think I'd be guilty of homer-ism/wishful thinking if I were positive on him at this point.

Romeo is almost the opposite--given the circumstances and what he's shown, it feels analytically wrong/dishonest to be really low on him.
 

radsoxfan

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Yeah, Grant has been given enough run that I think I'd be guilty of homer-ism/wishful thinking if I were positive on him at this point.

Romeo is almost the opposite--given the circumstances and what he's shown, it feels analytically wrong/dishonest to be really low on him.
I think at minimum, we should be willing to admit the error bars on Romeo are still quite large and overlap with a very useful player. Still think it's fair to be disappointed in what we have seen on offense so far.

Grant....those error bars are shrinking and the top end possible results are looking less and less promising as we go.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think at minimum, we should be willing to admit the error bars on Romeo are still quite large and overlap with a very useful player. Still think it's fair to be disappointed in what we have seen on offense so far.

Grant....those error bars are shrinking and the top end possible results are looking less and less promising as we go.
In 2 years, Langford has 45 games and 572 minutes played. Williams 125 games, 2057 minutes played.
Aaron Nesmith is at 38 and 515. He may pass Langford in career minutes this year.

Jury definitely isn't out on Langford because of all the injuries as his first 2 years are more like 1. Still hasn't been pretty and he's really far off from where he needs to be offensively. He probably won't ever be that great of a shooter and atm, he offers no other value offensively. But again, it's 572 minutes. I'm not willing to write him off yet but I'll be very quick to judge next season.
 

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Nesmith gives so much energy out there. He's wild to watch. How good can he be if all he adds is some better footwork on D and a respectable 3 ball?
You don't need to worry about the threeball. The shooting stroke is pure and they're going to fall as the game continues to slow down for him. The defensive footwork is absolutely the most important thing. If he cleans that up he can be an actual defensive asset, which makes him an elite 3&D wing.
 

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Someone mentioned up thread that Nesmith in an 8 game stretch (in mid-Feb) where he averaged ~20mpg was a net positive in 7/8 of those contests (yea SSS). BUT then Aaron inexplicably followed that up with 6 DNPs and 8 mins of garbage time vs. Houston.

I'm skeptical of the "Lightbulb/on" theory, it's more like Nesmith is finally getting minutes. The highest MPG happened over the last 2 games.
I mean he was pretty god awful in all but one of those final 4-5 games he played during that stretch once the energy wore off. I don’t know how those performances can be compared to him these last two nights.
 

benhogan

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I mean he was pretty god awful in all but one of those final 4-5 games he played during that stretch once the energy wore off. I don’t know how those performances can be compared to him these last two nights.
Nesmith was a +50 in 8 games when the team went 3-5 (the team was a -13)?
He was 8/19 from 3, maybe warming up to the NBA with an uptick in minutes

In the 2nd to last game before the hiatus, Nesmith puts up 13pts in 14mins against Atlanta, then 7 mins next game, then stapled to the bench, DNPs galore.

In Aarons first DNP, Brad decided to start Javonte for 33mins, play Semi for 18mins, Grant for 6mins (Teague for 21mins)

Sorry but WTF. Just rip the confidence right out of the kid by zeroing him with minutes

The Bench has been crap this year, but Brad has been just as crappy developing it.