Craig Kimbrel: Dominant Closer

[TrapperAB]

I wonder, when the forensic baseballogists do a full playoff post-mortem on Kimbrel, if we'll find out that his fingers were betraying him.

(Did we ever hear what Gagne said Kimbrel was doing?)

Watch Kimbrel when he's hunched over with arm held up. Sometimes the fingers on his right hand are dead still... and other times they're moving.

Wonder if that's the tell.

(EDIT: It would also help if they stopped squeezing him... was pretty egregious. And I agree with those posters who wonder if the umps aren't giving Kimbrel the benefit of the doubt -- not just because of a long-term "effectively wild" label, but also the recency bias of "he hasn't had his best stuff during the playoffs," making them more inclined to call a borderline pitch a ball. Yes, umps are supposed to be objective. But they never have been, never will be.)

 

[joe dokes]

Maybe it’d have been a good idea to give Swihart more than 16 catching starts during the regular season.

Backup catchers should be able to step right in, but Swihart played six positions this year so it’s probably harder for him to get catching work in than it is for a dedicated backup catcher.

Calm down. He's the 3rd string catcher this year. His presence allowed them to pH for Leon. My guess is some nerves, much like brasier in his first game of the nyy series. He looked fine behind the plate this season when he played there.

 

[dhappy42]

Calm down. He's the 3rd string catcher this year. His presence allowed them to pH for Leon. My guess is some nerves, much like brasier in his first game of the nyy series. He looked fine behind the plate this season when he played there.

Calm down? I’m just sayin’ it’s not all on Swihart that he’s rusty behind home plate. As a 3rd string catcher and “Swiss Army knife” who’s played 1st, 2nd, 3rd, LF and RF this season, you might expect some cross-ups when catching Kimbrel, especially on a night when Kimbrel has some control problems. I’ve seen Vaz get crossed up more than a few times in the post season too. Yes re nerves. When was the last time Swihart caught anyone?

 

[AB in DC]

It looked more like they got their signals crossed than anything else. I'm sure they've had to change their signaling scheme multiple times per game, so one of them probably just forgot which one they were on.

 

[keninten]

During th 9th inning I was going crazy from the start of the innning. With a 5 run lead their is no sense in not just going after the hitters. Anything close to a non strike should be frowned upon. Up 5 runs you can pretty much let the hitters get themselves out. Maybe they bat .500, big deal we`d still win. Isn`t this pretty basic. I could give a crap about close pitches called balls.

 

[z-factor]

Has anyone ever tried to measure the extent to which umps are influenced by a pitcher's overall tendencies or past record/reputation? I mean, it's kind of a cliche that "when a pitcher's always around the strike zone, he gets the borderline calls," but I can't recall seeing whether anybody's tried to verify that, now that we have the tools to do so.

In other words, does the fact that Kimbrel has a reputation as an "effectively wild" kind of guy mean he'll get squeezed more, because umpires are predisposed to assume he's missing?

Yep. A buddy of mine did an analysis which he summarized in the NYT. Summary of the summary: Umps make errors on about 14% of non-swinging pitches, with a slight bias toward the home team. They also are more likely to make mistakes in 3-0 and 0-2 counts and in late game situations.

To your question: there is a small reputation effect with a benefit in favor of All-Star pitchers, but more so for “control” pitchers like Greg Maddox and less so for “wild” all-stars like Randy Johnson (and Kimbrel).

What Umpires Get Wrong https://nyti.ms/1iI2vA6?smid=nytcore-ios-share

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wonder, when the forensic baseballogists do a full playoff post-mortem on Kimbrel, if we'll find out that his fingers were betraying him.

(Did we ever hear what Gagne said Kimbrel was doing?)

Yes. Well documented in this thread

 

[TheYaz67]

Super interesting off season decision that needs to be made on Kimbrel.

This team covered up for his absolute dumpster fire-like postseason, and as others have pointed out earlier, he struggled all year to throw pitches in the strike zone, ended with a 2.74 ERA and a 3.13 FIP. Two of his three years here he has had alarmingly high walk rates, but generally it has not cost us too many games (11 blown saves in 106 regular season opportunities).

While he has mostly been durable and consistent for his career, at age 31 next year, his best years may be behind him at this point, so do you do another big 3-4 year contract that would be required to keep him here? Or do you bank that money for the arb raises and other offseason needs, and count on one of Brasier, Barnes or Kelly to emerge as the new closer next year?

 

[joe dokes]

Super interesting off season decision that needs to be made on Kimbrel.

This team covered up for his absolute dumpster fire-like postseason, and as others have pointed out earlier, he struggled all year to throw pitches in the strike zone, ended with a 2.74 ERA and a 3.13 FIP. Two of his three years here he has had alarmingly high walk rates, but generally it has not cost us too many games (11 blown saves in 106 regular season opportunities).

While he has mostly been durable and consistent for his career, at age 31 next year, his best years may be behind him at this point, so do you do another big 3-4 year contract that would be required to keep him here? Or do you bank that money for the arb raises and other offseason needs, and count on one of Brasier, Barnes or Kelly to emerge as the new closer next year?

Cora might be of the view that "closer" is job description and not a skill set. He had Kimbrel so he used him. While he might not go the "no closer" route, I think he'd be perfectly fine just letting a "good relief pitcher" close games. I would guess that will be a discussion point with DD.

 

[Drek717]

I would argue in favor of a QO that he would decline for a multi year deal, then reallocate the money in attempts to keep Pearce, Kelly, and/or Eovaldi.

The team needs draft picks and I’d take any of those three over Kimbrel next season. His money would quite possibly cover the first two combined.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Super interesting off season decision that needs to be made on Kimbrel.

This team covered up for his absolute dumpster fire-like postseason, and as others have pointed out earlier, he struggled all year to throw pitches in the strike zone, ended with a 2.74 ERA and a 3.13 FIP. Two of his three years here he has had alarmingly high walk rates, but generally it has not cost us too many games (11 blown saves in 106 regular season opportunities).

While he has mostly been durable and consistent for his career, at age 31 next year, his best years may be behind him at this point, so do you do another big 3-4 year contract that would be required to keep him here? Or do you bank that money for the arb raises and other offseason needs, and count on one of Brasier, Barnes or Kelly to emerge as the new closer next year?

They'd have to resign Kelly too. How much did Kelly earn this postseason and how much did Kimbrel cost himself?

 

[Valek123]

I would argue in favor of a QO that he would decline for a multi year deal, then reallocate the money in attempts to keep Pearce, Kelly, and/or Eovaldi.

The team needs draft picks and I’d take any of those three over Kimbrel next season. His money would quite possibly cover the first two combined.

Agreed, let Kimbrel go, bring up Durbin Feltman try to resign the three above. Use Pomeranz $ for Eovaldi also and try to find some veteran RP's.

 

[bosockboy]

Pretty sure we move on.

Kimbrel back to Atlanta makes a lot of sense.

Resign Kelly and starting easing Feltman into the high leverage picture.

 

[ehaz]

Can't give Kimbrel ~ $60M with some of the players that need to be resigned and extended + arb raises. Spread the money to Kelly plus a cheaper/short term deal(s) to a pitcher coming back to injury (Rosenthal), a veteran hoping to rebound (Andrew Miller/Cody Allen), or an older vet (Robertson) instead.