Craig Kimbrel: Dominant Closer

joe dokes

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I think we’ll see Barnes close a game tonight if it’s less than 2 run lead in the 9th. Will Eovaldi be available tonight for an inning?
If its less than 2 runs by the time the 9th rolls around, what realistic chance is there that Barnes hasn't already pitched?
 

TheYaz67

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All the Red Sox bullpen pitchers have faced "some pretty high octane offenses" this postseason, like Brasier and Barnes, who have ERA's of 0.00 facing said high octane offenses....
 

dhappy42

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If managing Kimbrel’s ego wasn’t a factor — and it shouldn’t be, especially if he’s experiencing a mechanics glitch — Cora should “demote” him to a 7th- or 8th-inning set-up role. He could “sell” it by bringing Kimbrel in to face the top of the order, which is how closers should be used anyway. I thought that’s what Cora was doing last night until I remembered that there was no alt-closer to go to in the 9th.

Both Brasier and Barnes are better closers right now.
 

pokey_reese

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Barnes had nearly identical peripherals to Kimbrel's this season, and the two of them should really be the only ones in the discussion for the closer role right now. Given that Barnes faced one batter last night and Kimbrel labored through two high-stress innings, it would be entirely reasonable, if not probable, that Cora would go to him to give Craig the night off.
 

pk1627

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All the Red Sox bullpen pitchers have faced "some pretty high octane offenses" this postseason, like Brasier and Barnes, who have ERA's of 0.00 facing said high octane offenses....
And both looked pretty shaky in Game 1 ALDS. Cora stuck with them and I’m glad he did. Brasier got 5 big outs last night.
 

KillerBs

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If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.

If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
 

lexrageorge

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First, Cora is not going to publicly demote Kimbrel via his post-game comments. He's not that type of manager. If he decides that Kimbrel is not going to close out the next close game, he will communicate that to Kimbrel first.

As for tonight, we probably only see him in extras if it comes to that. As for the rest of the series, it's possible Cora may play the hot hand and try another pitcher to close out. But, as noted, the outs in the 7th and 8th are important as well, sometimes even more important. And he's trying to hold a ship together with bailing wire right now. Wright is done, Sale is sick, Cora appears to have little confidence in EdRod (for good reason), and Kelly/Hembree/Workman don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence either. There's just not a lot of great alternatives; it's not as simple as saving Brasier for the 9th.
 

Harry Hooper

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They may have been strikes, but that's only because batters are chasing. He barely threw 1 of 3 pitches in the strike zone this season.View attachment 24035
Good stuff. Is a first-half/second-half split on that stat available? Some occasional flashes but it seems like Kimbrel hasn't really been himself since about mid-season on (very light duty in June leading up to ASG and his request not to pitch in the ASG).

The bullpen bucket brigade corps as is really isn't long enough, so Cora taking Kimbrel out of that mix is not an option.
 

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If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.

If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
So if the Sox have a 3 run lead in the close out game tonight, you're going with Workman, Edro, and Hembree to bring us home?
No chance in hell.
 

joe dokes

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If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.

If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
If I am Hubie Brown, I am hoping that I don't have to pitch any of those guys. But with a day off tomorrow and a shot to close out the Series I am not deciding who's not pitching (other than Porcello) at noon.
 

The Napkin

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In the after game commentary, Pedro said that Kimbrel was looking at his target too late, which is why his control has been so wild. Sounds plausible to me.
This seemed incredibly obvious to me watching live and was nice hearing Pedro say it since he knows approximately 5383y248y283y423 times more than I do about pitching. Kimbrel's halfway through his delivery before he picks up the glove. Would be interesting to see some video from earlier in the year to see what he was doing then. Seems like a pretty easy fix if so.
 

KillerBs

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I see your point. But I don't see Price going more than 4 on 3 days rest after warming up last night. We need to cover 4-5 IPs tonight and live to tell the tale. Even if its still close in the 5th, I think it has to be Workman or Hembree next out of the box for a couple. We can see where we are at that stage but I think Edro is the move from there in a tight game. If it is not, I maybe have Hembree plus Workman finish the game even if they are getting shelled, saving Edro for Fenway too.

You cant go back to Fenway with another starter (Sale) potentially slated for a 3 IP start and a bullpen that is completely gassed.

Innings pitched in last 5 days: Brasier 4.2, Kelly, 4, Barnes 3.2. Are these guys exhausted really better than a rested Hembree/Workman?
 

savage362

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I'm on board with the picking up the target late crowd. You can't reliably hit a target if you don't look at it and know where to throw the ball.

I look at it as if you were throwing darts with your eyes closed. You're lined up with the board initially because you know generally, where you need to throw the dart. Now try opening your eyes midway through throwing the dart and try to locate and hit a 15. It's going to be much easier to hit if you've located where you need to aim before starting your throw, even if you already have an idea of where 15 is located on the board.
 

BostonWolverine

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This seemed incredibly obvious to me watching live and was nice hearing Pedro say it since he knows approximately 5383y248y283y423 times more than I do about pitching. Kimbrel's halfway through his delivery before he picks up the glove. Would be interesting to see some video from earlier in the year to see what he was doing then. Seems like a pretty easy fix if so.
If this is true why didn't pedro--in his special advisory role--reach out and help him make this fix in august?
 

wilked

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I see your point. But I don't see Price going more than 4 on 3 days rest after warming up last night. We need to cover 4-5 IPs tonight and live to tell the tale. Even if its still close in the 5th, I think it has to be Workman or Hembree next out of the box for a couple. We can see where we are at that stage but I think Edro is the move from there in a tight game. If it is not, I maybe have Hembree plus Workman finish the game even if they are getting shelled, saving Edro for Fenway too.

You cant go back to Fenway with another starter (Sale) potentially slated for a 3 IP start and a bullpen that is completely gassed.

Innings pitched in last 5 days: Brasier 4.2, Kelly, 4, Barnes 3.2. Are these guys exhausted really better than a rested Hembree/Workman?
If you have an opportunity to kill the enemy, you take it

If it's the 6/7/8 innings and they have a lead, even a 1 run lead, you go for the kill
 

joe dokes

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I see your point. But I don't see Price going more than 4 on 3 days rest after warming up last night. We need to cover 4-5 IPs tonight and live to tell the tale. Even if its still close in the 5th, I think it has to be Workman or Hembree next out of the box for a couple. We can see where we are at that stage but I think Edro is the move from there in a tight game. If it is not, I maybe have Hembree plus Workman finish the game even if they are getting shelled, saving Edro for Fenway too.

You cant go back to Fenway with another starter (Sale) potentially slated for a 3 IP start and a bullpen that is completely gassed.

Innings pitched in last 5 days: Brasier 4.2, Kelly, 4, Barnes 3.2. Are these guys exhausted really better than a rested Hembree/Workman?
Cora has to consider that they will need EdRo for a game 6, either for a short Sale start or no Sale start at all. So I think the only way we see him is in a blowout win.
 

wiffleballhero

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I hope Pedro is right, but I don't know.

A few days ago, Kimbrel was missing with his fastball down and in to the lefty side, last night it was a lot of up and in to the righty side. And those breaking balls all seem just tortured -- like he is squeezing the piss out of the ball.

I think it is in his head.

FWIW, Kimbrel has been given a very long leash, and if he is sent out there again and looks terrible, Cora clearly knows enough at this point to yank him quickly. Maybe he will get it out of his system and start painting again soon.
 

BostonWolverine

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Maybe this is selective memory, but since the playoffs started, I don't think I've seen anyone swing at a breaking ball. He does occasionally get them over for a called strike but the majority miss. So, hitters are just geared up for the inevitable fastball and with his current command it is likely to drift to the center of the plate.

We've been extremely lucky that no damage has been done but it's only a matter of time before someone squares something up and the BABIP gods don't look favorably on us.
 
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bosockboy

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Also something to remember is he was a disaster last year in October also. Between the last two postseason's he has a WHIP well over two plus 3 HBP. Maybe this is a mixture of mechanics and just not being able to focus under pressure.
 

Max Venerable

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Last night was frightening, but I kept telling myself that if anyone's going to have control issues for two straight innings, I'd like it to be Kimbrel. So long as he doesn't walk the world (and granted he almost did), his stuff and velocity were good enough that no one took him yard and he did induce a fair amount of soft contact. Cora has shown a tendency in this series to give up the walk and attempt to make Houston to hit his staff's better breaking pitches. So far, its working.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe this is selective memory, but since the playoffs started, I don't think I've seen anyone swing at a breaking ball. He does occasionally get them over for a called strike but the majority miss. So, hitters are just geared up for the inevitable fastball and with his current command it is likely to drift to the center of the plate.

We've been extremely lucky that no damage has been done but it's only a matter of time before someone squares something up and the BABIP gods don't look favorably on us.
Just last night. Bottom of the 8th, 8-6 game, runner at third, two out, one run in, Marwin Gonzalez up. 1-2 count, Kimbrel throws a curve and Gonzalez swings right over it and strikes out to end the threat.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Maybe this is selective memory, but since the playoffs started, I don't think I've seen anyone swing at a breaking ball.
Not quite nobody, but it's true, and an interesting point, that the swing percentage on his curve has been notably down in the playoffs compared to the rest of the year. That may be the book on him now: ignore the breaking pitch because he can't get it over (though ironically, if you look at his zone maps, his percentage of curveballs in the strike zone is actually slightly up in October...but the ones that are out are tending to be way, way out).

Brooksbaseball-Chart(1).jpeg
 

cheekydave

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A previous poster mentioned it above. I seem to remember with an arm injury, you still have your velocity, but not your control. Unlike Sale, his FB hasnt dropped from 100 to 89, I would not be surprised to find out offseason he has a tear or something. I tore my rotator cuff in college, and could still throw hard, but really had no fine tuning to control where the ball went. Wonder if any pitchers, or sports therapists with hands on experience could comment on this?
 

lexrageorge

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Just for grins, I looked at how the Astros fared against other closers to test a theory that I had. I didn't have time to go through all of the AL's closers, so I charted Houston's games against their division rivals as well as the other AL playoff teams:

TEX: Keona Kela
LAA: Blake Parker
SEA: Edwin Diaz
OAK: Blake Treinen
CLE: Cody Allen
NYY: Aroldis Chapman
BOS: Craig Kimbrel

Combined, MLB teams had a 0.577 OPS and 1.041 WHIP against these 7 relievers, with a K/BB ratio of 3.7.

Houston did not fare much better during the regular season: 0.518 OPS, 1.04 WHIP, 3.21 strikeouts per walk.

These are regular season stats.

Playoffs have been different story; Houston tagged Allen quite hard during his 2 appearances in the ALDS, despite not having much success against him during the regular season either (0.586 OPS against, WHIP of 0.88). Those 2 clean innings Kimbrel had against Houston during the regular season (4 K's, 0 BB's) seem so long ago right now.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Not quite nobody, but it's true, and an interesting point, that the swing percentage on his curve has been notably down in the playoffs compared to the rest of the year. That may be the book on him now: ignore the breaking pitch because he can't get it over (though ironically, if you look at his zone maps, his percentage of curveballs in the strike zone is actually slightly up in October...but the ones that are out are tending to be way, way out).

View attachment 24041
An alternative explanation for the observed data is that he can't command the fastball for shit, so he is constantly falling behind, and in 2-0, 2-1, and 3-1 counts hitters are happy to sit on the fastball and take breaking pitches unless they're hanging meatballs.

If Kimbrel was getting ahead in the count, he'd probably be getting a lot more swings on his breaking pitches.
 

bosockboy

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Saw this mentioned in the game thread, but Kimbrel missed his location badly on the Bregman/Benintendi ball. Leon was setup away and it was middle in. Better to be lucky than good.
 

mikeford

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CHB was on Zo/Bertrand today and said he believed Kimbrel was struggling because he couldn't get a grip on the ball ever due to his profuse and constant sweating.

He's constantly changing out balls and going to the rosin.
 

Bleedred

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I get that this is a SSS, but how (if at all) does this retched performance affect his market value going forward for a new contract? Would you be reluctant to give him boffo closer $$ numbers based on this postseason performance (assuming it doesn't improve dramatically)?
 

genoasalami

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Can they win a WS with a closer who can't close? Looks like they have a decent shot, though I am sure this is not the preferred way to get a ring....
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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I get that this is a SSS, but how (if at all) does this retched performance affect his market value going forward for a new contract? Would you be reluctant to give him boffo closer $$ numbers based on this postseason performance (assuming it doesn't improve dramatically)?
I don't want the Sox to resign him unless his market craters due to his performance these past couple of weeks, thereby ensuring he'd be a relative discount. But even if he were lights out during the entire playoffs and rightfully commanding top dollar once he hit the market, I still wouldn't want the Sox to resign him because aside from a select few cases, I think paying tons of money on your closer is a misallocation of resources.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
An alternative explanation for the observed data is that he can't command the fastball for shit, so he is constantly falling behind, and in 2-0, 2-1, and 3-1 counts hitters are happy to sit on the fastball and take breaking pitches unless they're hanging meatballs.

If Kimbrel was getting ahead in the count, he'd probably be getting a lot more swings on his breaking pitches.
Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.

Same thing in the final game of the ALDS: he faced 7 hitters and threw a first-pitch curve to 6 of them.

He's getting behind by throwing curves that hitters don't bite on. Then when he tries to catch up, he misses with the fastball as well, and gets further behind or walks people. For whatever reason, that's his preferred pattern right now.
 

24JoshuaPoint

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I'm on board with the picking up the target late crowd. You can't reliably hit a target if you don't look at it and know where to throw the ball.
Same. Mostly because Pedro said it. I also wondered last night why does he wait so long before zeroing in on the target. It's probably a mix of things. It is hella tough to watch no matter what the problem is.
 

joe dokes

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Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.

Same thing in the final game of the ALDS: he faced 7 hitters and threw a first-pitch curve to 6 of them.

He's getting behind by throwing curves that hitters don't bite on. Then when he tries to catch up, he misses with the fastball as well, and gets further behind or walks people. For whatever reason, that's his preferred pattern right now.
More curves are the staff's plan of attack against the Astors.
 

Wake49

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If I am Cora I am not pitching Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrel or Eovaldi tonight. Inclined to give Kelly night off too. Worst case has to be back to Fenway with a somewhat rested pen and Eovaldi not compromised in any way if needed in Game 7. So its Price, Workman, Edro and Hembree tonight (perhaps in that order) come what may. They should be able to get thru 8 or 9 innings.

If Sale cant go more than 3 in a Game 6, and the pen is pooched, this could cascade other way real quick.
How come (re: Barnes)? He only threw 5 pitches and he looked the best out of Brasier, Kimbrel, and himself.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Interesting theory, except that he's not getting behind by missing with his fastball. Yesterday he faced 11 hitters, and threw a first-pitch curveball to 8 of them. He threw 7 second pitches; 5 of them were curves as well. Of the 17 fastballs he threw, 12 were on pitch 3 or later.

Same thing in the final game of the ALDS: he faced 7 hitters and threw a first-pitch curve to 6 of them.

He's getting behind by throwing curves that hitters don't bite on. Then when he tries to catch up, he misses with the fastball as well, and gets further behind or walks people. For whatever reason, that's his preferred pattern right now.
Interesting. I guess what it shows is that pitching “backwards” only works if you can consistently throw the breaking pitch for strikes early in the count. Otherwise a smart patient team will put you in bad spots.
 

Al Zarilla

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I hope Pedro is right, but I don't know.

A few days ago, Kimbrel was missing with his fastball down and in to the lefty side, last night it was a lot of up and in to the righty side. And those breaking balls all seem just tortured -- like he is squeezing the piss out of the ball.

I think it is in his head.

FWIW, Kimbrel has been given a very long leash, and if he is sent out there again and looks terrible, Cora clearly knows enough at this point to yank him quickly. Maybe he will get it out of his system and start painting again soon.
That’s what I was thinking (Kimbrel has been doing this for a long time and others, maybe including his wife have told him it’s very different). But, hearing it from Pedro, an all time great and maybe good pitcher-whisperer too, might be the 2x4 upside the mule’s head type thing he needs. Maybe he’ll get new confidence along with and stop making scatter charts the size of my fireplace. Please?
 

DourDoerr

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More curves are the staff's plan of attack against the Astors.
Hopefully, we'll have a vastly different plan for the Vanderbilts. Their train of thought will take the current plan into account and will punch our ticket home if we don't alter it.
 

BornToRun

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Also something to remember is he was a disaster last year in October also. Between the last two postseason's he has a WHIP well over two plus 3 HBP. Maybe this is a mixture of mechanics and just not being able to focus under pressure.
Didn’t he pitch like one inning last October?
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I thought we weren't allowed to call him a heart attack closer. I did in Spring training and got torched on here. He's always been "effectively wild" but when he pulls his fastball teams can just wait him out. Thankfully that's not what's happening in the playoffs.
 

bsj

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I don't want the Sox to resign him unless his market craters due to his performance these past couple of weeks, thereby ensuring he'd be a relative discount. But even if he were lights out during the entire playoffs and rightfully commanding top dollar once he hit the market, I still wouldn't want the Sox to resign him because aside from a select few cases, I think paying tons of money on your closer is a misallocation of resources.
Agreed. I was actually thinking I'd prefer to give Barnes a shot (although he is a FA to),

EDIT- no he isnt
 
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I'll be shocked if he does - when Houston's closer struggled last year in the postseason they went away from him, and it worked - Cora was bench coach on that team.... Kimbrel not only had no command last night, but when he did get it over they hit 3 line drives off him (as well as some easy fly balls admittedly). You want to put in a guy who is walking and beaning batters constantly, and who is now also getting hit hard on 97 mph pitches over the middle of the plate, in a 1 run game? Because I don't want Cora to do that....

Will also point out that 35 pitches is the most he has thrown in one appearance this season. He also had another 10~ games this season he threw 25+ pitches in an outing, but only twice after such an outing did Cora use him the next day....
Shocked?