Copa America 2016 may include N. America

ninjacornelius

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Can you imagine how amazing 2016 will be if this comes to pass? A 16-team Copa America on American soil PLUS the European Championship?
 

Titans Bastard

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This would be great.

I would love to see a CONMEBOL and best-of-CONCACAF confederation one day, even though it would mean a much tougher road to the WC for the US. That sort of plan would involve kicking the Caribbean teams to the curb, which would never happen. The Caribbean runs the show in CONCACAF and they'd never part with the US/Mexico gravy train.

Anyway, a combined Copa America is the next best thing. We have been invited to the Copa in the past, but it always conflicted with the Gold Cup, so we'd send a crappy B team. CONMEBOL got sick of this and stopped asking. It would be nice to be back and in a year when we can devote our full attention to it.
 

Vinho Tinto

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Can they schedule it so that the tournament doesn't directly compete with the Euro? All of the players who did not compete in Poland/Ukraine are now reporting to their European clubs for the upcoming season.
 

trekfan55

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This would be great.

I would love to see a CONMEBOL and best-of-CONCACAF confederation one day, even though it would mean a much tougher road to the WC for the US. That sort of plan would involve kicking the Caribbean teams to the curb, which would never happen. The Caribbean runs the show in CONCACAF and they'd never part with the US/Mexico gravy train.

Anyway, a combined Copa America is the next best thing. We have been invited to the Copa in the past, but it always conflicted with the Gold Cup, so we'd send a crappy B team. CONMEBOL got sick of this and stopped asking. It would be nice to be back and in a year when we can devote our full attention to it.
The Copa America has nothing to do with WC qualifications. If this were to happen it would be to the benefit of both Conmebol and Concacaf (The Copa America gets more teams, more games, etc. and Concacaf gets to play more meanigful games vs better opponents).

But I think that the Gold Cup should still be held, maybe even have the semifinal teams form that cup join the Copa America?

Like the article said, this is all preliminary.

I definitely do not see Conmebol and Concacaf somehow "merging".
 

DJnVa

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The Copa America has nothing to do with WC qualifications.
He never said it did. He said that he wants a combined CONCACAF and CONMEBOL confederation--which *would* have to do with WC qualifications.

In lieu of that however a Copa America is a pretty good consolation--putting the South American teams in a competition with the good CONCACAF teams in a Euro-style tourney.
 

Titans Bastard

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The Copa America has nothing to do with WC qualifications. If this were to happen it would be to the benefit of both Conmebol and Concacaf (The Copa America gets more teams, more games, etc. and Concacaf gets to play more meanigful games vs better opponents).

But I think that the Gold Cup should still be held, maybe even have the semifinal teams form that cup join the Copa America?

Like the article said, this is all preliminary.

I definitely do not see Conmebol and Concacaf somehow "merging".
I think you've misunderstood parts of my post. I'm well aware of the difference between Copa America and the WCQ.

Anyway, the proposed year for this combined Copa is 2016. The Gold Cup takes place in odd-numbered years, so there would be no conflict.
 

trekfan55

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I think you've misunderstood parts of my post. I'm well aware of the difference between Copa America and the WCQ.

Anyway, the proposed year for this combined Copa is 2016. The Gold Cup takes place in odd-numbered years, so there would be no conflict.
I understand what you said now, so i withdraw my first point.

I do think, however that such a confederation has no chance of happening. Assuming that the distribution stays the same, and the new confederation gets 7 or 8 places (depending on the "half spots" that get distributed) then you would have a complete disadvantage for all teams in CONCACAF.

The only problem I see is which 4-5 teams to invite?
 

Mr. Wednesday

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I do think, however that such a confederation has no chance of happening. Assuming that the distribution stays the same, and the new confederation gets 7 or 8 places (depending on the "half spots" that get distributed) then you would have a complete disadvantage for all teams in CONCACAF.
I don't think it would be as bad as you think, especially with eight places. The U.S. and Mexico should both qualify, and remember that Costa Rica gave the fifth place CONMEBOL team a very good run in 2010 qualifying---so I think it's fair to say that the Central American contingent would have a strong chance of qualifying one or two teams every cycle.
 

trekfan55

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I don't think it would be as bad as you think, especially with eight places. The U.S. and Mexico should both qualify, and remember that Costa Rica gave the fifth place CONMEBOL team a very good run in 2010 qualifying---so I think it's fair to say that the Central American contingent would have a strong chance of qualifying one or two teams every cycle.
Except now they get 3 or 4, and the process is done in a way that some surprise team can emerge. Under this format it would be highly unlikely.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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I would expect a combined CONMEBOL/NAFU/UNCAF to use some sort of group format, but we haven't even laid that out, so I'm not sure what you mean by "this format".

In any event, I do think it's reasonable to make a rough extrapolation from the qualify of the teams as they exist right now. After the top five CONMEBOL plus USA and Mexico, I don't think there's anything to distinguish the CONMEBOL teams. We don't get a lot of cross-federation play, which is why I cited the 2010 playoff between Costa Rica and Uruguay. I think that the top of UNCAF is good enough to qualify a team out of the combined federation if they have eight places, and in up UNCAF/down CONMEBOL years I think they could qualify two teams.
 

coremiller

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I would expect a combined CONMEBOL/NAFU/UNCAF to use some sort of group format, but we haven't even laid that out, so I'm not sure what you mean by "this format".

In any event, I do think it's reasonable to make a rough extrapolation from the qualify of the teams as they exist right now. After the top five CONMEBOL plus USA and Mexico, I don't think there's anything to distinguish the CONMEBOL teams. We don't get a lot of cross-federation play, which is why I cited the 2010 playoff between Costa Rica and Uruguay. I think that the top of UNCAF is good enough to qualify a team out of the combined federation if they have eight places, and in up UNCAF/down CONMEBOL years I think they could qualify two teams.
The issue is risk. Right now concacaf after US/Mex is guaranteed 1.5 spots every cycle. In a combined format they'd be guaranteed nothing. What's the upside, that they might qualify two teams instead of 1.5? In a down year they run the risk of not qualifying any teams. Totally not worth it.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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That would certainly be true for UNCAF, and it's a good point against any sort of move of CONCACAF teams to CONMEBOL.
 

Zososoxfan

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I'm not as familiar with CONCACAF as some (likely most) of you, but I think it would benefit the US a great deal to play more meaningful games against South American squads. The entertainment factor of getting the South American teams stateside also has huge potential. Nevertheless, seeing how x-national football is run has made me pessimistic regarding good things happening. Then again, if NCAA [American] football can get it [kinda] right, there's hope for CONCACAF/CONMEBOL, provided of course that Sepp Blatter is not involved at all.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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The biggest hurdle isn't Sepp, it's the CFU. CONCACAF is a union of NAFU (North America i.e. USA, Canada, and Mexico), UNCAF (Central America), and the CFU (Caribbean). Because of one nation, one vote in the CONCACAF general congress, a bunch of free-riding hangers-on basically control the region. It's how master crook Jack Warner turned the confederation into his own personal piggy bank. If the USA and Mexico split off from CONCACAF, it takes away their biggest cash cows: the Gold Cup and their occasional World Cup qualifying matches against the big boys.
 

Zososoxfan

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The biggest hurdle isn't Sepp, it's the CFU. CONCACAF is a union of NAFU (North America i.e. USA, Canada, and Mexico), UNCAF (Central America), and the CFU (Caribbean). Because of one nation, one vote in the CONCACAF general congress, a bunch of free-riding hangers-on basically control the region. It's how master crook Jack Warner turned the confederation into his own personal piggy bank. If the USA and Mexico split off from CONCACAF, it takes away their biggest cash cows: the Gold Cup and their occasional World Cup qualifying matches against the big boys.
The Sepp thing was more of just a jab - he sucks, but I'm aware if it's not FIFA, he's not involved.

For the reasons I bolded in your post, I'd imagine that the Mexican and US associations are the power brokers here. If they want to split and see more $ in doing some stuff with CONMEBOL, I don't see how you stop them. Now, if Warner wants to try and latch the rest of CONCACAF onto that boat, that's one thing, but I don't see why the US and Mexico wouldn't want to badly compete at Copa America '16.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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How do you stop USA and Mexico from leaving CONCACAF? You stop them by saying no. That's easy. Even though USA and Mexico are the cash cows, they actually don't have power in the federation commensurate with their value, especially with the dust-up that arose when Chuck Blazer (FIFA ExCo member and outgoing CONCACAF General Secretary) knifed Warner in the back. They're two votes, against 25 CFU votes in the CONCACAF general congress and against four CFU/UNCAF votes in the ExCo even if USA and Mexico both had seats there, which I'm not sure they do. And the CFU votes also have value at the FIFA level for the same reason they have value at the confederation level: it's one nation, one vote in the general congress.

For the U.S. and Mexico to be able to take advantage of their status as moneymakers, they need to be able to make a credible threat of withholding the money, as well as offer something of value in return for letting them go.
 

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Wouldn't CONMEBOL inviting USA/Mexico be akin to Asia inviting Australia? What could CONCACAF do to stop them from leaving IF they got an invitation? I'm not saying it would or should happen, but I think if it was offered it would be hard to turn down, and the threat of moving would probably be enough to re-jigger the power structure in CONCACAF

That said, giving up more or less a free ride to the WC would be the trade-off.

As far as the Copa goes, I'd love to see them use it for Confed Cup qualification by having the highest-finishing CONCACAF and CONMEBOL members going to the Confed. Gold Cup could be the North America qualifier for Copa.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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I am a little curious as to how the Australia switch went down. It can't have hurt, though, that the number of World Cup places on offer to OFC stayed the same. Oceania kept their 1/2 place and kicked out one of the two likely teams to earn it. As the most recent confederational cup competition shows, you can get a shock result when there's only one team you need to beat.

By way of contrast with CONCACAF, there's been a CFU side in the World Cup as recently as 2006, and the confederation as a whole gets 3.5 places. I think CFU would need a full place to get paid off until there's enough of a dry spell for them to think that a guaranteed half place is better than their current shot at more. To my mind, that's a non-starter, because there's no way the region's strength, on its merits, deserves more than 1/2 place. My ideal would be to merge NAFU and UNCAF with CONMEBOL, grant the combined federation 8 places, grant CFU 1/2 place to be played off with OFC (throwing a bit of a bone to both in that it's by far the easiest playoff opponent each could get), and work out AFC/CAF/UEFA amongst themselves. I'm just very skeptical that it would be politically workable right now. Plus, it would involve significant risk for both the U.S. and Mexico, who have a relatively secure route to qualification in CONCACAF.

Not to mention that, as much as I rail on the crooks in CONCACAF, the crooks in CONMEBOL (Teixeira, Leoz) aren't really any better.
 

coremiller

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You'd think that if it were purely about money, a combined concacaf/conmebol Copa America would generate so much more revenue than the Gold Cup that they could pay off the CFU and still end up way ahead. Look at the ratings the Euros pulled this year. Wouldn't a USA/Brazil quarterfinal, or a Brazil/Argentina knockout match, do massive ratings in the US, esp. in the summer months when there's little sports-related competition? Certainly it would do a lot better than the Gold Cup does now, where the only match that matters is the inevitable USA-Mexico final. The networks that have already invested heavily in WC rights would love to have another big tournament to build the soccer brand. Plus you could host in the U.S. every third time around and sell out a bunch of 60,000 seat stadiums for the knockout matches and do huge ticket revenues too.

That's a totally different issue from merging for WC qualifying purposes, which will never happen.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Looks like this is going to happen.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/u-host-play-2016-copa-america-mexico-four-223319390--sow.html
 

Vinho Tinto

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Summer of 2016 is going to be great. Euros during the morning and afternoon, followed by Copa America in the evening (Plus Rio Olympics). With ESPN having the Euro, I expect Fox will jump all over this and really pump it up. Safe bets that either network will put the final on their main network and Bob Kraft will make sure Boston will get some matches.

Any guesses where the final will be held? I'm going with the Meadowlands.
 

Bosoxen

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Summer of 2016 is going to be great. Euros during the morning and afternoon, followed by Copa America in the evening (Plus Rio Olympics). With ESPN having the Euro, I expect Fox will jump all over this and really pump it up. Safe bets that either network will put the final on their main network and Bob Kraft will make sure Boston will get some matches.

Any guesses where the final will be held? I'm going with the Meadowlands.
Don't count out Jerry World. You know he'll have at least something to say about that.
 

Zososoxfan

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This is fantastic news. I think the US competing with CONMEBOL is a huge step in the right direction. Even though this isn't regular competition (which would be even better), I'm all for it. Do people really expect teams to send B-squads? If so, why?
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Potential issues include:
* Will the tournament appear on the FIFA calendar? If not, there may be issues with clubs releasing players
* The "real" Copa America and Gold Cup will each be held the prior year. I personally see this as less of a concern, as purely from a prestige standpoint, a combined Americas tournament has to trump those, right?
 

dirtynine

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So excited about this. It is going to absolutely blow apart all financial expectations, which I think will lead to a combined Copa becoming a regular thing - hopefully usurping the separate Confederation tourneys.
 

Titans Bastard

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Hmm, the U.S./CONCACAF side of things is saying hold on, it's not a done deal.
This is the sort of thing that can upset the corrupt old boys' network. The key to making an inter-confederation tournament like this is to make sure that all the necessary parties are sufficiently paid off.

CONCACAF won't like this because "CONCACAF" means "lots of small Caribbean confederations" who will be concerned that this could lead to more CONMEBOL-CONCACAF tournaments that will possibly supplant some Gold Cups. They make their money off the back of USA and Mexico and they'll need to have a piece of the combined-Copa pie in order to be satisfied.

There are other snags, but I'm sure that will be a behind-the-scenes issue.
 

SoxFanInCali

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So, the 16 team Copa America 2016 will be from June 3-26.

Euro 2016 is June 10-July 10.

 
I may have to take some time off around then.
 

blueline

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Heard Tim Vickery suggest, on the World Football Phone In a few weeks ago, that many of the big name South American players likely will not play in 2016 as there is still the regularly scheduled Copa America to be held in 2015.
 

OCST

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After strenuous efforts to keep my calendar clear, fucking Small Claims Court scheduled me for a hearing on June 26 - USA vs. Germany.
 
For Small Claims Court.
 
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck me.
 

coremiller

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blueline said:
Heard Tim Vickery suggest, on the World Football Phone In a few weeks ago, that many of the big name South American players likely will not play in 2016 as there is still the regularly scheduled Copa America to be held in 2015.
 
No way.  The corporate sponsors will never permit it.  Do you think Adidas is going to let Messi skip the tournament and forfeit all that free exposure to the world's most lucrative consumer market? 
 

soxfan121

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coremiller said:
 
No way.  The corporate sponsors will never permit it.  Do you think Adidas is going to let Messi skip the tournament and forfeit all that free exposure to the world's most lucrative consumer market? 
 
Won't the clubs have more issues than the players? June 10 is less than a month (closer to two weeks?) from the close of the Champions League and by that point, several of these guys will have been playing non-stop for almost 24 months (like, say Luis Suarez or Sergio Aguero - national team mainstays at clubs in the CL)?
 

Infield Infidel

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I think there's more of a chance that Chile 2015 becomes a quasi-U-23 tourney, featuring mostly South American-based players and younger European-based players. 
 
USA and Mexico are definitely sending full squads; I don't think South American FAs will send weaker teams to USA 2016 and give Mexico and USA a higher chance of winning
 

blueline

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coremiller said:
 
No way.  The corporate sponsors will never permit it.  Do you think Adidas is going to let Messi skip the tournament and forfeit all that free exposure to the world's most lucrative consumer market? 
 
How likely is it that the best South American players participate in the 2014 World Cup, 2015 Copa America, and 2016 Copa America? Three straight major summer tournaments. 
 

coremiller

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soxfan121 said:
 
Won't the clubs have more issues than the players? June 10 is less than a month (closer to two weeks?) from the close of the Champions League and by that point, several of these guys will have been playing non-stop for almost 24 months (like, say Luis Suarez or Sergio Aguero - national team mainstays at clubs in the CL)?
 
If it's a sanctioned FIFA tournament (and I imagine it will be), I don't think the clubs have any choice, although I'm not an expert on FIFA regulations.  But several of the core Barca/Spain players (Xavi and Iniesta, at least) played in Euro 2008, Confed Cup 2009, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012, Confed Cup 2013, and World Cup 2014, which is six summer tournaments in seven years, and the club couldn't do anything about it.
 
Edit: FWIW, the clubs have nearly as big an interest in increasing the marketing value/public profile of their players as the players themselves do.  If Sergio Aguero lights up Copa 2016, that's going to sell a lot more Man City shirts.
 

soxfan121

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coremiller said:
 
If it's a sanctioned FIFA tournament (and I imagine it will be), I don't think the clubs have any choice, although I'm not an expert on FIFA regulations.  But several of the core Barca/Spain players (Xavi and Iniesta, at least) played in Euro 2008, Confed Cup 2009, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012, Confed Cup 2013, and World Cup 2014, which is six summer tournaments in seven years, and the club couldn't do anything about it.
 
And look what happened to them at the end of that run. 
 
I don't know the answer either, but I'm gonna guess at the very least that the Spain/Barca data point gets cited by clubs like Liverpool and Chelsea to their South American players when the ask them to consider skipping the tournament.
 

coremiller

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soxfan121 said:
 
And look what happened to them at the end of that run. 
 
I don't know the answer either, but I'm gonna guess at the very least that the Spain/Barca data point gets cited by clubs like Liverpool and Chelsea to their South American players when the ask them to consider skipping the tournament.
 
Eh.  Xavi's play has declined in the last year-and-a-half but I think that's more natural aging (he's 34 now) than fatigue.  Guys like Sergio Ramos and David Silva (who were in all those squads) are playing some of their best football right now, and Iniesta's play hasn't really slipped much.  
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Does it make sense to split out the Copa America 2016 stuff into a new thread?  For news when the stadiums are announced, analysis, tickets, etc.?
 

SeoulSoxFan

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Does it make sense to split out the Copa America 2016 stuff into a new thread?  For news when the stadiums are announced, analysis, tickets, etc.?
 
And done. Thanks Infidel for the heads up!
 

Titans Bastard

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coremiller said:
 
If it's a sanctioned FIFA tournament (and I imagine it will be), I don't think the clubs have any choice, although I'm not an expert on FIFA regulations.  But several of the core Barca/Spain players (Xavi and Iniesta, at least) played in Euro 2008, Confed Cup 2009, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012, Confed Cup 2013, and World Cup 2014, which is six summer tournaments in seven years, and the club couldn't do anything about it.
 
Clubs don't have any choice for FIFA dates and major summer tournaments (WC, regional championships), but it's unclear whether FIFA will treat an off-year dual-confederation Copa America.  It's not the regular CA for South American countries and the North Americans are basically guests.  I'm sure clubs will be lobbying heavily against this and FIFA has a history of treating invitee countries with different rules.
 
coremiller said:
Edit: FWIW, the clubs have nearly as big an interest in increasing the marketing value/public profile of their players as the players themselves do.  If Sergio Aguero lights up Copa 2016, that's going to sell a lot more Man City shirts.
 
I think these sorts of arguments are almost always overstated.  Man City will also sell a lot of Aguero shirts if they win the Premier League and having him play in a third consecutive summer tournament doesn't advance those interests.
 

Bosoxen

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Titans Bastard said:
I think these sorts of arguments are almost always overstated.  Man City will also sell a lot of Aguero shirts if they win the Premier League and having him play in a third consecutive summer tournament doesn't advance those interests.
 
It might not affect sales locally but it will affect them internationally. What do you think would happen to sales of Man City shirts if Aguero were to move to Real Madrid? I'll give you a hint: Real Madrid shirt sales would go up in Argentina.
 
Not to say I disagree with your premise that their interest lies in winning the BPL. I just don't think you can completely write off the effect that an international favorite can have on sales.