Texas politics. With a significant number of Tech grads in the state, there will be enormous pressure on Texas to take at least one other school from the state with it to a new conference. Tech moving to something Conference USA would be a big political problem in Texas. Same thing happened with the creation of the Big 12: the governor at the time (Ann Richards) was a Baylor almuna and she basically forced the Big 12 to take Baylor. Now that aggy is out of the picture, the legislature will take some kind of actions to try to force Texas to take someone in-state. Don't know if it will work, but that's how it has worked in the past.
I mostly agree; although Ann Richards and Bob Bullock aren't around anymore to force school presidents' hands, and Perry certainly couldn't care less right now. I actually think the departure of A&M has broken the circle to where there's precedent in the Texas schools to have an everyman for themselves mentality. For years I always assumed UT and A&M would stick together, and now that's not the case, I don'think there's the same pressure on UT and tech or Baylor being package deals.
At which point, I ask this: Why would Texas A&M be allowed to move to the SEC without carrying anyone else with it, but Texas would have to bring along Texas Tech to the Pac-16? If I'm Texas and someone throws that Texas Tech-Conference USA scenario at me, I blame Texas A&M, because without that move, this move never happens. If the Aggies are allowed to move east on their own, without looking out for other state schools, then Texas should be able to do the same in heading west.
Again, Texas politics. The pecking order in the university system Texas looks like this: 1) The University of Texas. 2) Everyone else. No one except aggy really cares what aggy does, because they don't really have any stick in state politics by themselves. Unless and until UT does something, it's just not perceived as being that big of a deal. Aggy to SEC? Who cares - don't let the door hit you on your way out. But Texas to the PAC? Holy shit, the conference is headed for the apocalypse! Further, Texas is perceived as a kind of big brother or godfather to other schools, and that it should use its political might to help its poorer brethren out in times of need, which in the past it for the most part has. That's just the way it is in Texas.
Lt. Governor Bob Bullock was the one forced Baylor on the XII, not Governor Ann Richards.
I disagree with this part. Despite their inability to win anything meaningful in football since 1998, A&M is a top-tier public school with a huge student body, in-state following, research budget, endowment (shared with UT), and tradition. It wasn't too long ago that Dennis Franchione left Alabama to take the job in College Station. That and they're an AAU school.
Incoming sanctions at Alabama from the Dubose regime were a factor in that decision, not just the quality of the A&M job itself.
OK; I still find absurd the above contention that no one in Texas decision-making circles cares what A&M does, as much as I dislike the institution as a fan.
I don't disagree with you on that one. There was just a wee bit of blind partisanship going on with that assertion, so your perspective was appreciated.
Yes, there are people in Texas who care about what Texas A&M does. Was using hyperbole to make my point that the main actor in this drama is UT, and once UT moves, all the dominoes will fall and it will be headlines galore.
They never wanted to go west. Culturally the SEC is a much better fit for them.
If Texas really wanted ensure Texas Tech came along, the way to do it would be to drive the bus west and blow whatever political cover they want to keep. By not doing so, they risk allowing the Pac-12 to dictate the terms, which could include KU over Texas Tech as the 16th team if they see fit.
K-State academics would never cut it for the Big Ten. KU (like Mizzou), on the other hand, is an AAU school that hasn't drawn any interest from the Big Ten. Not sure why, other than guessing the conference wants to go east as opposed to west.
Big Ten wants at least 1 and maybe both whales, ND and/or the NYC market. Either a team that helps them draw in ND (Pitt) or a team with ties to NYC like Rutgers, Syracuse, or Uconn. Only Rutgers is on the AAU of those 4. Plus, the basketball programs are possibly afraid of Kansas. Then there's the whole ethical question with the ticket office scandal.
Texas I think doesn't really care if Tech comes along with them. But there would be political fallout that they would rather avoid, so I think Tech goes with Texas in most circumstances. And without trying to sound like an insufferable Texas homer, I don't think anybody is going to dictate terms to Texas in any scenario. There will be compromises along the way, in particular with regard to how they deal with LHN, but Texas is such a powerful franchise that it will get most of what it wants in just about any scenario.
Most people think its inevitable that the Big East and ACC merge into a north and south with the football big east schools breaking off from the basketball schools. So you'd have a north division of Syracuse, BC, Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Maryland, WVU, VaTech, UVa and a south division of UNC, Duke, Wake, USF, FSU, TCU, Lousville GTech and Miami. who knows who gets poached. yes, I know that is 18 teams. I am just shooting for parameters. but it will be something like that I would guess. Its actually a pretty good and balanced conference and ludicrous in hoops
Root for the Big East to collapse. Here's one scenario (i.e. I have no inside info):
Wilner also says Mizzou's being targeted by the SEC as the 14th team. Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! is hearing some of the same rumors for the Big 12.
Because there is money. Lots of it. Play Texas = get paid a lot of money (visiting non-conference teams make something like $1,000,000 for playing in Austin). Play in the same conference as Texas = get paid a lot of money from revenue sharing, even if it isn't equal. Apart from OU, no school in the Big 12 could generate as much revenue as they do if they were playing in a conference without Texas due to the fan support for Texas translating into sold-out stadiums and big TV contracts.
According to a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette story not too long ago, the difference for schools like Pitt and West Virginia would be $8 million in the Big East compared to $17 million to $20 million annually in the Big 12. When you're doubling your money, you have to at least listen, right?
The big East just turned down $15M per school in a TV deal from ESPN becasue they feel they can get better from Fox or NBC. and you don't automatically get that money just by entering a conference. there is a four or five year phase in to revenue share for new members.
Dude. Seriously.
I'm not offended. I'm psyched that Texas is going to end up a big winner out of all of this.
OU and Texas are locked together. They're a package deal as much as anybody.
First, let me say I have no dog in this fight, this is just indifferent observation.
Something tells me ESPN wouldn't be too happy having paid $300 million to have Texas play SMU, Rice, UTEP, Houston, New Mexico, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa and maybe North Texas on the Longhorn Network. That's not to mention Texas paying Rick Barnes $2.4 million a year to beat those teams, or Augie Garrido about $1 million a season to sweep those teams each weekend. With ESPN in the fold, I would think Texas absolutely needs to house all 78 of its sports -- or, at least the 77 non-football sports -- in a BCS conference. They won't be happy otherwise.
Oh, I don't think we disagree on a lot of these points. Clearly, Texas is the 800-pound gorilla in that part of the country. Like it or not, if you are in the region, you pretty much have to deal with Texas. Look at it this way: love them or hate them, the gooners at OU have decided, long ago, to wear their big boy pants and compete on even terms with Texas. And as much as it pains me to say it, as a result, they probably have a better overall football program than Texas (god that was hard to write). A&M, on the other hand, chooses to blame Texas for its problems, and hasn't won much of anything for decades. Compete or don't compete. But don't blame Texas if you aren't competitive.
Such a great partner three schools have left the conference in 12 months, not to mention Mizzou and Oklahoma looking elsewhere. And if so many schools want to be in a conference with Texas, why haven't they been knocking down the door to join the Big 12, because they sure could use strength in numbers right about now.
Yeah, it cuts both ways. I get that. Schools that felt like they could get better deals and not get their asses consistently kicked left (look up Texas' record against Nebraska, Colorado and A&M compared with their record against OU). Schools that feel like they can compete on even terms will stay and/or want to be in the same conference. If Texas was or is so inclined, they can join just about any conference they want to, pending some renegotiating of parts of the LHN deal. They had an invite to the PAC last year and were in serious discussions with the B1G as well. What is happening now is not only because Texas is a good or bad conference partner, but due to the larger realignment movement and the push toward super-conferences. Texas and OU are playing chess right now to make sure they get the right deal. Nebraska, Colorado and A&M played or are playing checkers by jumping ship without setting and executing some larger strategic goals. You think Nebraska and Colorado are happy about the millions of dollars in penalties they lost when they left? A&M has painted itself into a corner by screaming SEC SEC SEC! as long and as loud as they could and they have no other options right now, while Texas and OU decide how big the exit fee will be.
Colorado didn't leave for competition reasons, it left because so many of its alums are from California, and that's where the money is for their base. That move was way overdue, and it had nothing to do with athletics.
You -- and a lot of other people -- are, so, so wrong about this.
Seems to follow how things have been progressing the last week.
Yeah, this is speeding up big time. Wouldn't be surprised if this is settled in principle very soon.
