The television money says otherwise. The ACC recently signed for reportedly about $13 million per year per school. The Big East is looking at closer to $8 million, but football schools will get a bigger slice.
I'm skeptical of the value of going to 14 schools. If you play an 8-game conference schedule, and you play every team in your division every year, you're looking at seeing a former rival in your home stadium once every 14 years. That strains the concept of "conference" - it becomes more like a loosely affiliated pair of conferences.
And that's two more mouths to feed from your expansion. So that school had better be worth it - there's no taking a school purely to add one.
We're pretty much out of schools that can jump from mid-major to major and add a lot. I'd say Fresno State (moving to the Mountain West next year) is a west-coast candidate. Maybe Tulsa? But these are schools subsisting on athletic budgets half the size of a current Big East school. Memphis and Central Florida are also possibilities. This is more a solution to get from 11 to 12 so you can hold a championship game. Or from 7 to 8 to prevent being decertified.
There's such a sharp drop-off once you get out the realm of the majors. Conference USA just renegotiated its rights, and supposedly each school receives a little more than $1 million per season. There are only so many schools that draw enough attention to make them of national or even major regional interest on television.
That's why if a major conference wants to move to 14, it had better do so by taking a rain-maker from another major conference. Not a Mississippi State or an Oklahoma State.
I think the SEC, the Pac Twelve and the Big Ten are solid in that they wouldn't lose schools to anyone. So the possible world of schools that could be used to create larger conferences is very small. I did some work last year to rank the 120 FBS (I-A) schools by their potential value to a conference. The ranking takes into account history, recent history, budget, attendance and academics.
I set a cutoff at the 60th-ranked school. Below that, you're looking at filler that can't possibly add enough revenue (the lowest current major, Mississippi State, ranks 74th). More realistically, I'd set a cutoff at 40th for a major, 25th for one of the big three.
Here's that list:
3. Texas
8. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma
17. Virginia Tech
18. Texas A&M
21. Georgia Tech
23. Clemson
24. Pittsburgh
28. West Virginia
31. Miami (Florida)
32. Virginia
33. Maryland
34. Missouri
36. Boston College
38. North Carolina
40. North Carolina State
41. Kansas
43. Florida State
46. Brigham Young
47. Rutgers
48. Oklahoma State
51. Texas Christian
52. Cincinnati
55. Texas Tech
56. Hawaii
57. Syracuse
58. Connecticut
59. Kansas State
60. Louisville
With 10 of 12 schools in the top 43, the ACC is solid. The Big East has two, the Big Twelve has five.
If the SEC is going to make a move, Texas A&M is a strong candidate. There's talk of Missouri as well as Clemson. Oklahoma would be a stronger move, but if it means taking Oklahoma State as well and moving to 16, it's not possible right now. I think Clemson is the better fit if Oklahoma can't move alone.
The Big Ten probably isn't going to 14 unless Notre Dame is involved. Then it's Pittsburgh or Maryland, with Missouri also a possibility. I don't see the Big Ten reacting to the SEC based on this alone, though.
The Pac Twelve has a more difficult decision, because geography greatly limits their candidates. I don't see that happening without Texas. And I don't see Texas switching unless Oklahoma is already gone. Texas as an independent is pure posturing.
If the ACC loses anyone, it can (and will) still raid the Big East.
So... if anything happens in the next couple of years, it probably will be the SEC seeing what life is like at 14. Since the SEC has more deadweight (Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt) than the other majors, it's easier to make that economic case than with a more balanced conference like the ACC or the Big Ten.
The ACC will simply take Pitt, Rutgers or West Virginia from the Big East. And I think the Big Twelve would be content at nine schools. Not an ideal situation. Maybe if the money were much greater at 12, they'd look at TCU, Louisville and Cincinnati, but I think that would be a stretch under the circumstances, and require a ridiculous split to keep Texas and Oklahoma happy.
The only wild card is whether a top three conference is willing to drop a school to get a "better" 12. That makes no sense for the Pac Twelve, which just added Utah, certainly the best mid-major in the FBS but hardly in the top half of its new conference. I don't think the Big Ten would do it - Indiana and Northwestern are the only two candidates, and there's too much tradition involved. And I really don't see the SEC dropping anyone, though it makes the most financial sense there, especially with Mississippi State.
