Conference Realignment Thread

BigMike

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See, I don't buy this. With all the money at stake, there would be hell to pay for UF if it came out they blocked a fellow in-state public school like FSU. Ditto for South Carolina if they blocked Clemson. I don't see either school's administration risking their relationship with the legislature that way. The SEC might not absorb FSU and Clemson for any number of other reasons, but I don't think in-state opposition will be a factor.

Georgia Tech is private, so that's a different story. Ditto for Miami if the SEC were interested in them. (I don't think the current scandal would dampen SEC interest as much as others here do -- which is not the same as saying it will happen.)

Georgia Tech is a public school, not private

Thge problem with GT and Clemson is they add nothing to the conference.
 

gtg807y

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Georgia Tech is a public school, not private

Thge problem with GT and Clemson is they add nothing to the conference.
Agreed, and as an aside one of the many problems I noticed in that Nate Silver piece was how he stated that Atlanta was an ACC market (via GT). Hardly, I don't think anyone would disagree that it's much more Georgia/SEC.

My question is, does FSU offer that much more than Tech or Clemson would? All these conferences are looking for new markets, and the SEC has this area pretty well locked down.
 

Zososoxfan

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Yahoo's Dan Wetzel wrote about this today.

Long story short from Wetzel: "The ACC, however, offers everything from the high school football factories of Florida to the academic power of Duke and Virginia in the Mid-Atlantic to the big subway-alum cities stretching from Washington to Boston. That's especially true if Rutgers came along as the 16th member. It's simply a more appealing geographic and demographic option than the old Big Ten. Especially in the decades to come."
Wetzel's position has several weaknesses. First, the high school football factories in OH are just behind FL, TX, and CA. The academic power of Duke and UVA (and UNC) are countered by Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisco. The northeast corridor is matched by Chicago. Regarding geography, I don't think any case can be made that the ACC > B10 for ND. Most importantly, not having to schedule out of conference games against rivals UM and MSU has to be big deal. The football is significantly better and while bball is obviously much much better in the new ACC, the B10 is a legitimate basketball conference (OSU and MSU are strong programs, UM looks to be on the rise, IU, Purdue, Illinois, and MN all have had success in the past).

But really, none of this matters because at the end of the day, the B10 TV contract is worth a shit ton more. As of 2009 (yes, it's dated, but it also probably has real predictive value), B10 teams earned $15.8M per team (174M /11) and the ACC earned $5.6M per team ($66.9M /12).

In other words, Wetzel's conclusion may be right, but his premises are a mockery.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Wetzel's position has several weaknesses. First, the high school football factories in OH are just behind FL, TX, and CA.
But we already have access to OH via our geographical location. We don't have access to FL, TX, or CA that way.

Most importantly, not having to schedule out of conference games against rivals UM and MSU has to be big deal.
The ND fans I know are a lot more concerned about the overall direction of the program than they are about games with UM and MSU. We wouldn't hesitate to toss games against those two schools to get a preferred destination for the team.

But really, none of this matters because at the end of the day, the B10 TV contract is worth a shit ton more. As of 2009 (yes, it's dated, but it also probably has real predictive value), B10 teams earned $15.8M per team (174M /11) and the ACC earned $5.6M per team ($66.9M /12).
ND is currently close enough to the Integer deal to not have to chase it. One would have to think we could do similarly with the ACC. If not, then I'd guess it won't happen.
 

OCST

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The Integer is really fucking annoying. If your purpose is to annoy, congratulations.
 

mabrowndog

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I hate both designations, but B1G is a fairly harmless three-character abbreviation. "The Integer" is douchey and pretentious, something I'd expect Shank or Skip Bayless or some movie critic to come up with. Seriously, knock that shit off.
possible[/url] for BC to go back to the Big East (and take Maryland with them) and for Duke and UNC to leave the ACC for the SEC.
Point taken, but it would probably be more helpful and relevant if someone could point out any flaws in his argument that WVU's not joining the SEC, because right now I can't see any.
 

SoxScout

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Multiple Big East sources have told Brett McMurphy of CBSSports — the man on the forefront of Syracuse/Pitt shuffle — that WVU officials have said both the SEC and the ACC have rejected the school’s application for membership.

The rejection by the ACC is no surprise; the Mountaineers have been passed over three times for ACC membership. A source with knowledge of the situation has told CFT that “every person I’ve spoken with said the same thing: the ACC does not want WVU.”

Multiple reports have stated that at least 10 schools had applied for ACC membership — including, apparently, West Virginia.
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/20/sources-sec-rejects-wvu-application-for-membership/

@sptwri Mike DeArmond

Story going up momentarily at Kansascity.com that Missouri has an offer from SEC but that SEC is willing to wait on implosion of Big 12
https://twitter.com/#!/sptwri/status/116205895444217856
 

Captaincoop

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There's no way that WVU applied to either conference. Conferences don't work that way. Applying is a formality after an invitation has been extended through official channels. I'm dubious of any report suggesting that WVU was just dropping off applications like a kid looking for work at the mall.

That being said....LOL boo hoo West Virginia.
 

TomRicardo

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There's no way that WVU applied to either conference. Conferences don't work that way. Applying is a formality after an invitation has been extended through official channels. I'm dubious of any report suggesting that WVU was just dropping off applications like a kid looking for work at the mall.

That being said....LOL boo hoo West Virginia.
Didn't Texas A&M do this to the SEC?
 

SoxScout

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The University of Oklahoma is considering remaining in the Big 12, but only in a “reformed” version of the conference that includes hard and fast rules for Texas' Longhorn Network and removal of Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe, a high-ranking Big 12 source told The Oklahoman on Tuesday.
The source said the league presidents do not believe Beebe responded with adequate leadership to Nebraska's and Texas A&M's frustration. The Big 12 has lost three members in the last 15 months, and “the relationships were so bad (with) the commissioner,” the source said.

The other reform the Sooners demand is Texas and ESPN retreating on some its plans for the Longhorn Network. The UT/ESPN partnership angered Big 12 members on two counts: 1) the network reached an agreement with Fox Sports to move a conference game to the Longhorn Network; and 2) The Longhorn Network announced it would show high school highlights even after the conference voted to keep televised high school games off school-branded networks.
http://newsok.com/article/3605958
 

JMDurron

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Didn't Texas A&M do this to the SEC?
Texas A&M was well aware of the SEC's potential interest in them after last year's realignment almost-apocalypse. The question was never whether or not A&M would be welcomed in the SEC, but whether they could successfully get out of the Big 12.
 

RingoOSU

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http://newsok.com/article/3605958
This is Boren saying "I'm not the one who's going to kill the big 12. I made a reasonable request, and it was rejected." There is no way the league stays together since OU wants stability, and if the big 12 stays together, we'll just be doing this shit next year when Missouri decides to follow up on the SEC's offer.
 

JMDurron

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A pretty thorough smackdown of the WVU-to-SEC chatter.
My biggest takeaway from this (I echo the "unreliable source" critique) is that the academic rankings of schools are done by enough different organizations (Princeton Review, AAU, US News & World Report, Forbes, etc.) that everyone can use their own favorite ranking system to say that their school/set of schools is smarter than the other arbitrary set of schools without being actually caught in a lie.
 

mabrowndog

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This is Boren saying "I'm not the one who's going to kill the big 12. I made a reasonable request, and it was rejected." There is no way the league stays together since OU wants stability, and if the big 12 stays together, we'll just be doing this shit next year when Missouri decides to follow up on the SEC's offer.
Yup. This leaves me wondering why on earth Oklahoma would now want to head to the Pac 16 along with the very team they don't want handled with kid gloves anymore, when any move by Texas will clearly be one that allows TLN to thrive with little or no limitation. Seems a bit contradictory.

 

RedOctober3829

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Yup. This leaves me wondering why on earth Oklahoma would now want to head to the Pac 16 along with the very team they don't want handled with kid gloves anymore, when any move by Texas will clearly be one that allows TLN to thrive with little or no limitation. Seems a bit contradictory.
If this is how OU feels, then they should go to the ACC. They would dominate football every year and be in position to have a very lucrative TV deal.
 

TomRicardo

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Unless Texas joins the Big 12 Big East Frankenstein they are going to lose the Longhorn Network in its current incarnation
 

Kremlin Watcher

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Unless Texas joins the Big 12 Big East Frankenstein they are going to lose the Longhorn Network.
No, they will not lose it. If they join a different conference they will have to modify it, but they won't lose it. They see it as a true game-changer and as the direction of college athletics' future. I think they'll decline any offers to join any other conferences that require too great a modification of the LHN. As I understand it, there are a lot of discussions going on about how to share revenue from the LHN, which is the primary complaint people have about it. But Texas sees it not only as a moneymaker, but as a recruiting and branding tool for the school as a whole, which will benefit the entire university in terms of visibility, prestige, etc. etc. No way they dump that for a conference affiliation, especially when it is completely unclear how this whole realignment mess shakes out, both this year and post-2014.
 

roundegotrip

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I'm not sure you're following me... Rutgers is NOT the most popular team in the NY DMA. Rutgers is not the 2nd most popular team in the NY DMA. UConn is not in the top 5. Silver's data is crap, the methodology is nonsense, something I think a site like SoSH would care about. My bad though, I meant FSU, not Georgia. He also has gems like UConn having more CFB fans than Oregon, and Troy having more fans than Stanford. Ludiicrous.
Silver's data is, I'm sure, riddled with flaws due to his sub-par methodology. I still think that it's an interesting read, even if only to get a general sense of the sizes of teams' or conferences' fan bases. I thought others would also be interested in seeing it, and if I was mistaken, my apologies. I guess I assume that everyone here is smart enough to judge for themselves and take something like that on it's merits or lack thereof as the case may be.

Now, it wasn't my intention to use Silver's post to argue the relative merits of Rutgers as a conference member. However, between the Silver piece and the chart comparing Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and Pitt (among others) I've at least posted some data points that would suggest Rutgers is potentially valuable. However suspect you might find any of that information, and I'm not really here to personally defend it, more like just passing it along, it's pretty rich of you to cite SoSH posting standards when your rebuttal is basically 'that's wrong, take my word for it'.
 

Williams Head Case

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I'm not sure you're following me... Rutgers is NOT the most popular team in the NY DMA. Rutgers is not the 2nd most popular team in the NY DMA. UConn is not in the top 5. Silver's data is crap, the methodology is nonsense, something I think a site like SoSH would care about.
Just curious, then: what are the five most popular teams in the NY DMA, in order?
 

Infield Infidel

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Just curious, then: what are the five most popular teams in the NY DMA, in order?
There are three things to consider
1. NYC is a pro-sports town, so any college fanbase is going to be diffuse.
2. Basketball is king in NYC, so schools with a big-time bball programs have a leg up
3. Every university on the planet has an active local alumni association in NYC

To make a guess, I'd split the pie like this

Syracuse 15%
In-state school, big-time basketball, and heavily recruit NYC metro area, and especially Long Island. Lots of alumni in NYC too. They have a good brand, and have enough sway to have games at the Meadowlands the next few years.

Notre Dame 12%
National Program, and there are tons of Irish and Catholics in NYC. They don't call it a subway alumni for nothing.

Penn State 12%
Closest big-time public school football program, and it's a gigantic school with lots of local alumni. the only thing that holds them back is shitty basketball.

Rutgers 10%
It is the local school, and has a lot of local alumni. Too bad both basketball and football are usually mediocre. When they were good in 2006, there was a lot of local buzz about the team, but they've failed to capitalize on that since then. Only a great coach could build them up further, Schiano's good but he's not that guy.

UConn 6%
Again tons of local alumni. Not very far away. Big-time basketball with a growing football program

These top five are the schools that get highlights on local shows.

After that, there are probably a dozen or more schools that have a tiny sliver of the market, based primarily on having large local alumni fan-bases.
Ohio St, Michigan, Duke, UNC, Stanford, Texas, VaTech, Florida, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Northwestern, Wisconsin, LSU, Missouri, UCLA. These are all pretty national programs. All these schools have a bar or two in town that play their games and most get tons of fans.
 

dirtynine

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As someone just starting to pick this stuff apart, I could use some resets here if you guys are willing to indulge me:

1. I'm still a bit unclear about how some BCS conferences gained leverage over others. Why didn't the Big XII, for example, become a destination instead of a target? Or back in the day, what made the ACC more attractive than the Big East for football? You could argue that their football programs were traditionally stronger than the BE's when BC et al jumped, but over time, that quality ebbs and flows. Was it a better financial model? Better markets? Just outright aggressiveness on the parts of some conferences? It seems like the Big East and the Big XII have always seemed weak, with programs looking to bolt. I know it's obviously about money, but what specifically put the "victorious" conferences in the position to offer more money?

2. Re. Texas, why (hypothetically) wouldn't they consider going football independent? It's obviously somewhat archaic, but if it's viable for teams that can control their own media distribution (LHN), wouldn't there be advantages?
 

Butch Hobsons elbo chips

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Remaining Big East football schools met tonight in NYC including TCU.
http://espn.go.com/dallas/story/_/id/6997221/sources-big-east-football-schools-meet-new-york-tuesday-night

Villanova requested inclusion but Mike Jensen reported tonight that they were DENIED by the football schools.
http://twitter.com/#!/jensenoffcampus/status/116248526530416640

Dick Weiss just reported that UCONN REFUSED to attend the meeting tonight so you can start the assumptions about their ACC prospects.

Huskies seeking ACC membership.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6989031/uconn-huskies-aggressively-seeking-acc-move-source-says

BIG 12 looking into merger with remaining BIG EAST Football schools (and MWC and ConfUSA looking at semi-merger for football-only BCS purposes)
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/6993604/big-east-big-12-talking-possible-merger-sources-say
 

Butch Hobsons elbo chips

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The probable landing spots are...
UConn to ACC
Missouri to SEC
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State to PAC 16

Of those moves, the PAC 16 ones are still the most uncertain at this time. Oklahoma even making noise about a "reformed" BIG 12 that fires Commisioner Don Beebe.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6997737/oklahoma-consider-staying-big-12-wants-reform-according-report


West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF
TCU
(Rutgers still in limbo but attended the BE Football meeting tonight.)


Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

Knocking on the door and hoping someone answers... Houston, SMU, UCF, ECU, Boise State, Memphis basketball, who did I miss? :rolleyes:
 

Infield Infidel

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As someone just starting to pick this stuff apart, I could use some resets here if you guys are willing to indulge me:

1. I'm still a bit unclear about how some BCS conferences gained leverage over others. Why didn't the Big XII, for example, become a destination instead of a target? Or back in the day, what made the ACC more attractive than the Big East for football? You could argue that their football programs were traditionally stronger than the BE's when BC et al jumped, but over time, that quality ebbs and flows. Was it a better financial model? Better markets? Just outright aggressiveness on the parts of some conferences? It seems like the Big East and the Big XII have always seemed weak, with programs looking to bolt. I know it's obviously about money, but what specifically put the "victorious" conferences in the position to offer more money?
I think it's geography mainly. We are seeing Big XII teams go to the Big Ten, Pac-X, SEC and probably Big East. Each conference borders them. The Big East's problem is it's always been bball first, and that just splits the pie further.

The probable landing spots are...
UConn to ACC
Here's the thing about UConn and Rutgers: where else are they going to go? Big Ten will wait for ND and do nothing unless that happens. And even then, Kansas might be more attractive.

The ACC can take their time with UConn and Rutgers; the ACC can pick them off anytime they want (or never), so why do it now?
 

Butch Hobsons elbo chips

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As someone just starting to pick this stuff apart, I could use some resets here if you guys are willing to indulge me:
The #1 thing you have to understand is the BIG EAST was destined to fail no matter what. It became a hybrid conference of FOOTBALL schools vs BASKETBALL schools that had completely opposing agendas on too many subjects.
It had almost all large PUBLICALLY Funded institutions on the football side (Syracuse being the exception as a lagre private school with the full use of the Carrier Dome being a major asset.) and 8 small private Catholic schools on the non-BE football side. The outlayer being big bad NOTRE DAME among those small Catholic schools who refused to put their brand in the BE Football Conference which was a "thumb in the eye" of the Football schools.

16 schools (about to become 17) and very little comaraderie berween the two sides other than a weekend at Madison Square Garden in March. It couldn't last and it was just a matter of time after the 2003 & 2004 cracks in the foundation started.

Beyond that is a bunch of FOOTBALL reasons $$$$$$$$$$$ why all this is about to transpire across the College landscape. College Football is a considerably stronger product outside the North East part of the country and that is why BIG TEN / ACC / SEC / PAC?? are driving the bus. The BIG 12 could have been more agressive in it's expansion plans but they weren't and the TEXAS domination issues created extra friction.

Oh and one more thing, the BIG EAST REJECTED PENN STATE's application in the very early 1980's.
 

JMDurron

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"Barring any new developments", Missouri is joining the SEC

SEC presidents endorse informal agreement with Missouri
Check the update that was added to the bottom of that link.

“The Southeastern Conference has not agreed, formally or informally, to accept any institution other than Texas A&M and there have not been conference discussions regarding changes in divisional alignment.”
Pretty strong for a denial, although obviously there could be a "yet" tacked onto the entire thing.
 

Awesome Fossum

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Before the sudden news broke last weekend that Pittsburgh and Syracuse were leaving for the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Big East was in the final stages of acquiring Navy as a football-only member.

No official invitation was extended by the league, but both parties had extensive discussions about Navy joining the league in football only and it very well could have happened in the next couple of weeks, college football industry sources told CBSSports.com.

Besides Navy, the Big East also was targeting Air Force and league sources felt confident both schools would have been Big East members, perhaps within the next year – that is until Pitt and Syracuse announced they were leaving for the ACC.
Navy nearly to Big East before Pitt, SU exited
 

Senator Donut

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Wow, the Big XII does it again, preserving the conference when everyone thought it was certain to fall apart. I wonder what concessions Texas made to make it happen, and if BYU will become the tenth member. I guess there is a chance that Oklahoma was rejected by the Pac-12, but I think it was OU's decision to stay put which has ended the possibility of Pac-12 expansion.

On the other hand, the Big East is officially fucked now that they won't be getting Kansas and the Big XII North leftovers.

EDIT: I assume this means Missouri will remain in the fold as well?
 

mabrowndog

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Well, if true that certainly castrates any ultimatums from Oklahoma to their Big 12 brethren, which means the conference (and TLN) remains intact.

Missouri and TAMU will definitely face legal & financial consequences now should they move forward with plans to bolt, and there's no way the SEC will finalize anything unless they're in the clear.

What a clusterfuck this is turning out to be.
 

Senator Donut

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Why would you assume that?
Well, I'm going on the assumption that Oklahoma turned down the Pac-12, not the other way around, which could be wrong. If Oklahoma agreed to stay, they probably received assurances that Missouri would remain a conference member. Also, reports indicated that the SEC offer was contingent upon a Big 12 collapse.
 

Gunfighter 09

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I would assume the PAC-12 said they were not interested in OSU without UT. OU can't go without OSU and can't get UT to come to some sort of agreement on the LHN w/ the PAC-12.

I would love to know what USC's position is in all of this madness. USC people believe the same bullshit about themselves that KW posted earlier about how the Longhorns view Texas' position in the universe. They made huge concessions last year to get the two new schools into the PAC-12, but you would think that they would want UT to bring the LHN to the conference and start some sort of network of their own. Of course, all of USC's calculations have to be affected by the fact that they are trapped in probation purgatory right now.
 

Butch Hobsons elbo chips

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THE BIG EIGHT
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

+ the remaining 5 or 6 BIG EAST Football schools = 13 or 14 teams depending on Rutgers.

West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF
TCU
Rutgers ??

That's still a decent all sports conference.


http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/32148466
WALNUT CREEK, Calif.-- In light of the widespread speculation about potential scenarios for Conference re-alignment, the Pac-12 Presidents and Chancellors have affirmed their decision to remain a 12-team conference. Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said, “after careful review we have determined that it is in the best interests of our member institutions, student-athletes and fans to remain a 12-team conference. While we have great respect for all of the institutions that have contacted us, and certain expansion proposals were financially attractive, we have a strong conference structure and culture of equality that we are committed to preserve. With new landmark TV agreements and plans to launch our innovative television networks, we are going to focus solely on these great assets, our strong heritage and the bright future in front of us.””

- Pac-12 -
 

Hendu's Gait

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I would have to think Navy would be far more attractive to the ACC than the remaining Big East Programs, IF the ACC were to decide to go to 16, which I don't expect at this point
Yep. Top 20 lax every year 2005-2010. Obviously the good academics. Good pairing with UMCP geographically, too. With the recent withering of the UMCP-UVA rivalry in bball and football, Navy is not the worst of choices.
 

Sea Dog

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THE BIG EIGHT
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

+ the remaining 5 or 6 BIG EAST Football schools = 13 or 14 teams depending on Rutgers.

West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF
TCU
Rutgers ??

That's still a decent all sports conference.
Add Mizzou to the current Big 12 members, most of the reports today said the Tigers going to the SEC was contingent on the Big 12 falling apart, basically once the Pac-16 taking place. With that not happening, the SEC's in a tough spot -- follow through on not adding Mizzou because the Big 12 still stands, move to add Mizzou knowing you need a 14th team, or retract that conditional Texas A&M invite because you don't want to be stuck at 13. Not sure what the SEC does.

Say Mizzou stays, I could see the Big 12 adding BYU, TCU and West Virginia to get back to 12. And suddenly, the ACC might have buyer's remorse on Pitt and Syracuse.

EDIT -- I wonder if the Big East loses UConn and Rutgers to the Big East if the Big 12 would be open to giving Notre Dame the same deal it had in the Big East?
 

wibi

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PAC-12 has said no to adding any more schools (and specifically Texas from the Big 12) because of Texas Longhorn network revenue sharing issues.
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/6998751/pac-12-conference-decides-expand-further

I'm going to laugh my ass off in 10 years when Texas is in the same boat as Notre Dame is now given where ND was 10 years ago as a program and a national power
 

Butch Hobsons elbo chips

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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/6998720/commissioner-john-marinatto-says-schools-committed-big-east

BIG EAST Commisioner says the remaining 14 BE Schools + TCU are committed to stay together...um except UConn..and maybe a bunch of others still looking around. :rolling:

Also rumors were they may still go ahead with those Navy & Air Force additions to the Football side of the League.

John Marinatto has the credibility Charlie Sheen telling you he is alright now and can be trusted again.