Conference Realignment Thread

dirtynine

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Duquesne? along with Xavier? The Catholic Schools Athletic Conference?
As a Bucknell / Patriot League fan, I follow what Holy Cross fans are talking about... they've always regretted not joining the Big East and fantasized about a Catholic League and a return to athletic glory. The reality is they're way to small and irrelevant now (I would think) to be a player in all this, but the fact that a Catholic League is being talked about in the mainstream has them going crazy with excitement.
 

Captaincoop

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The Catholic league has been on the back burner since the day the Big East went to 16. It's only been a matter of when.

My money is on Dayton and Xavier to round out that conference, which will be awesome to watch - all Catholic, urban schools, the way the Big East always should have been. And the way this has all panned out, they probably get to keep the brand, because football looks like it may dissolve.

Watch out for Rutgers to the Big Ten - apparently their AD is trying to play that card, and the Big Ten has few good options now.

The other big winner today is ND...as each conference becomes "full" at 16, ND gains more support for whatever accomodations it requires to remain a viable independent - since no other conference will want to force ND into the arms of the Big Ten.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Wither the A10 and URI basketball.

(well I guess URI does not have all that much withering left to do)
The A10 can probably replace whichever of those Catholic schools leave pretty easily in basketball. The can replace Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe's and whoever else leaves with pretty much anybody they want from the America East, Big South, Patriot League, Southern, or Colonial. For instance, adding VCU (who has a natural A10 rival in Richmond), George Mason, and Davidson, would still leave that conference in pretty good basketball shape. Not as good, obviously, but still not bad. And given that St. Louis is in there, geographically, there's also MAC, Missouri Valley, and Horizon teams they could go after.
 

twothousandone

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Watch out for Rutgers to the Big Ten - apparently their AD is trying to play that card, and the Big Ten has few good options now.

The other big winner today is ND...as each conference becomes "full" at 16, ND gains more support for whatever accomodations it requires to remain a viable independent - since no other conference will want to force ND into the arms of the Big Ten.
Doesn't the Big Ten have one very good option - which is to do nothing? Tell ND to phone when they are ready, and sit tight. When/if they do phone, and odd number of teams isn't such a big problem (they've handled 11, these are good academic schools -- they know how to count, just not how to label), and they can find someone else for #14 if they have to.

ed - here's an example
Thanks. No quotes from Catholic school ADs -- they are probably smart enough to keep their mouths shut for now.
 

grsharky7

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This was an unfortunate place and time for a typo.



The bolded is what makes things complicated. The SEC can get to 14 easily enough with Texas A&M and WVU (not a huge fan of that add, no offense to grsharky, although I might find it hilarious that the primary school of a state that formed to stay with the Union in the Civil War would be joining the SEC), but where does the 16th team come from if Missouri is the 15th target? WVU is somewhat geographically isolated relative to the other SEC schools, so you would almost need a nearby rival from VA to give them a logical in-conference rival. Is the VA legislature really that much of a hurdle, or like in Texas, has that previous resistance been overcome by events at this point? There are no attractive targets left to the West (after Missouri) if Texas and Oklahoma both go to the PAC-12, Texas Tech is basically a useless add in my mind.
Lol, touche. At 6 AM typing on a message board I'm not to concerned about grammar. The academics crap went out the window long ago. Academics and location used to be a big part of conference affiliation. Now its all about the money.
 

TomRicardo

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Notre Dame is definitely not joining the ACC and is not joining the Big 10. They have a TV contract through 2015 which allows them to have their games when they want the games (Notre Dame does not have to play a home game at night unless they want to)

They like doing whatever the hell they want without answering to anyone else and pretending their football program is till special. At least they are not a shitstorm like BC.
 

BigMike

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Notre Dame is definitely not joining the ACC and is not joining the Big 10. They have a TV contract through 2015 which allows them to have their games when they want the games (Notre Dame does not have to play a home game at night unless they want to)

They like doing whatever the hell they want without answering to anyone else and pretending their football program is till special. At least they are not a shitstorm like BC.
IT is not impossible that they decide to reach a deal with the ACC which is structured similar to their old Big East deal. Something like Join the ACC for all sports except football, and pick up 4 ACC games a year (2 on ACC TV, and 2 on ND TV). They will likely need a new place to put their non football teams.

Basically have the ACC bring in Nova and ND for non football sports, so they can get the Basketball up to a full 16 and really round out the best basketball conference in America.

That way the ACC wouldn't have to devalue the product by brining in 2 more mouths to feed who add nothing to the TV contract (like UConn and Rutgers)
 

TomRicardo

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IT is not impossible that they decide to reach a deal with the ACC which is structured similar to their old Big East deal. Something like Join the ACC for all sports except football, and pick up 4 ACC games a year (2 on ACC TV, and 2 on ND TV). They will likely need a new place to put their non football teams.

Basically have the ACC bring in Nova and ND for non football sports, so they can get the Basketball up to a full 16 and really round out the best basketball conference in America.

That way the ACC wouldn't have to devalue the product by brining in 2 more mouths to feed who add nothing to the TV contract (like UConn and Rutgers)
Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this? If you are the ACC you desperately want Notre Dame Football to increase the number of relevant programs to 3/4 (BC sucks, and Miami is going to get destroyed by the NCAA as soon as the ACC is secure). Why would you want just Notre Dame's other sports?

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games. BC and Miami had to beg and plead to get a series again with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh isn't about to throw out their games with Notre Dame. So Notre Dame gets the privilege of beating the crap out of a Duke or Virginia or even worst get embarrassed by the likes or a Maryland or UNC? I think Notre Dame will take its chances elsewhere.

Until the ACC wrestle MSG away from the floating the corpse of Big East or figure out still at least 2 more top tier programs from Big East in Basketball (or grab Kansas) Notre Dame is still going to make more money in the Big East with all the other sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC. BC got absolutely reemed for doing it.

ACC should be talking to UConn and Rutgers.
 

BigMike

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Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this? If you are the ACC you desperately want Notre Dame Football to increase the number of relevant programs to 3/4 (BC sucks, and Miami is going to get destroyed by the NCAA as soon as the ACC is secure). Why would you want just Notre Dame's other sports?

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games. BC and Miami had to beg and plead to get a series again with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh isn't about to throw out their games with Notre Dame. So Notre Dame gets the privilege of beating the crap out of a Duke or Virginia or even worst get embarrassed by the likes or a Maryland or UNC? I think Notre Dame will take its chances elsewhere.

Until the ACC wrestle MSG away from the floating the corpse of Big East or figure out still at least 2 more top tier programs from Big East in Basketball (or grab Kansas) Notre Dame is still going to make more money in the Big East with all the other sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC. BC got absolutely reemed for doing it.

ACC should be talking to UConn and Rutgers.
Why is ND going to stick with the rotting carcases of the Big East. Sure I guess they could join the new Catholic Basketbally conference if/when that happens, but that doesn't help them in other sports where ND tries to be more relevant than many of their potential Catholic conference bretheren.

If UConn and Rutgers represent the best the ACC can add for 15 and 16, then there is no reason to expand beyond 14. Those 2 will not being enough money in to make 1/16th of the ACC tv deal with them worth more than 1/14th of the renegotiated TV deal the ACC will get without them.
 

roundegotrip

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I'm not so sure about that. Rutgers has a monstrous share of the New York market, and UConn is in there, too. I would think that those NYC television sets are worth a lot to advertisers.
 

roundegotrip

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I don't think that extrapolating numbers from that census is the best methodology. Any study that concludes, for instance, that Georgia Tech has 50% more fans than Georgia is highly, highly suspect to me.
No doubt, but it's better than nothing. Also, he did adjust the census numbers using each school's reported revenue, which helps smooth out the bumps a little. I think the biggest problem is that the highly rural fanbases of certain schools are probably being drastically under-counted.

Still, it's fun to look at, and it at least gives you some kind of ballpark.
 

Captaincoop

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Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this? If you are the ACC you desperately want Notre Dame Football to increase the number of relevant programs to 3/4 (BC sucks, and Miami is going to get destroyed by the NCAA as soon as the ACC is secure). Why would you want just Notre Dame's other sports?

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games. BC and Miami had to beg and plead to get a series again with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh isn't about to throw out their games with Notre Dame. So Notre Dame gets the privilege of beating the crap out of a Duke or Virginia or even worst get embarrassed by the likes or a Maryland or UNC? I think Notre Dame will take its chances elsewhere.

Until the ACC wrestle MSG away from the floating the corpse of Big East or figure out still at least 2 more top tier programs from Big East in Basketball (or grab Kansas) Notre Dame is still going to make more money in the Big East with all the other sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC. BC got absolutely reemed for doing it.

ACC should be talking to UConn and Rutgers.
The answer is that there is no chance at all that ND gets into the ACC without its football program. None.

Notre Dame has exactly what it wants right now, a cheap, Catholic home for its Olympic sports, and total autonomy and championship access in football.
 

8slim

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Highly recommended reading: Nate Silver's take on the size of every team's fan base, broken down my conference.
I like Nate's stuff, but the methodology he uses for that is abysmal. Hell, he works for the Times, doesn't he have enough of a research budget to just buy one of the half-dozen scientific surveys from a half-dozen different companies that size college football fanbases by market?
 

ethangl

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Hell, he works for the Times, doesn't he have enough of a research budget to just buy one of the half-dozen scientific surveys from a half-dozen different companies that size college football fanbases by market?
No:

This approach isn’t going to be perfect — unless you were willing to spend literally hundreds of thousands of dollars on a scientific survey of college football fans, you’re going to have to resort to some educated guesses.

 

8slim

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I'm not so sure about that. Rutgers has a monstrous share of the New York market, and UConn is in there, too. I would think that those NYC television sets are worth a lot to advertisers.
Hahahaha. Two teams have a "big" share of NYC -- ND and Penn State. Reason #14,276 why that methodology is bunk.

Apparently some Big East teams have bigger fanbases than Florida State and Georgia. That makes sense, right?! :unsure:
 

Drocca

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I kept reading and read that Rutgers apparently brings the NYC market???

I find that questionable. Syracuse should bring some of that and we have two national programs in basketball that bring every market. When it comes to football is there a NYC market?
 

roundegotrip

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Hahahaha. Two teams have a "big" share of NYC -- ND and Penn State. Reason #14,276 why that methodology is bunk.

Apparently some Big East teams have bigger fanbases than Florida State and Georgia. That makes sense, right?! :unsure:
I don't really need Nate Silver to tell me that Rutgers and UConn probably have a lot of fans in the NYC area.

For the record, no Big East teams on that list have more fans than Georgia. He does have three above Florida State - W. Virginia, Rutgers, and Pitt (barely).
 

Drocca

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Rutgers and UConn have terrible football programs. Are there really that many NYC folks watching these two teams on Saturday? And, again, with basketball the ACC already has the NYC market along with every other market.

Rutgers confuses the hell out of me.
 

Hendu's Gait

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Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this? If you are the ACC you desperately want Notre Dame Football to increase the number of relevant programs to 3/4 (BC sucks, and Miami is going to get destroyed by the NCAA as soon as the ACC is secure). Why would you want just Notre Dame's other sports?

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games. BC and Miami had to beg and plead to get a series again with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh isn't about to throw out their games with Notre Dame. So Notre Dame gets the privilege of beating the crap out of a Duke or Virginia or even worst get embarrassed by the likes or a Maryland or UNC? I think Notre Dame will take its chances elsewhere.

Until the ACC wrestle MSG away from the floating the corpse of Big East or figure out still at least 2 more top tier programs from Big East in Basketball (or grab Kansas) Notre Dame is still going to make more money in the Big East with all the other sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC. BC got absolutely reemed for doing it.

ACC should be talking to UConn and Rutgers.
Seriously? Rutgers brings nothing to the ACC. It doesn't share the ACC's culture and academics. It's a commuter school.
 

DukeSox

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Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this? If you are the ACC you desperately want Notre Dame Football to increase the number of relevant programs to 3/4 (BC sucks, and Miami is going to get destroyed by the NCAA as soon as the ACC is secure). Why would you want just Notre Dame's other sports?

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games. BC and Miami had to beg and plead to get a series again with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh isn't about to throw out their games with Notre Dame. So Notre Dame gets the privilege of beating the crap out of a Duke or Virginia or even worst get embarrassed by the likes or a Maryland or UNC? I think Notre Dame will take its chances elsewhere.

Until the ACC wrestle MSG away from the floating the corpse of Big East or figure out still at least 2 more top tier programs from Big East in Basketball (or grab Kansas) Notre Dame is still going to make more money in the Big East with all the other sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC. BC got absolutely reemed for doing it.

ACC should be talking to UConn and Rutgers.
I appreciate your passion, but youve been consistently wrong on this topic. One week ago you said the ACC was doomed.

ND has, recently, good Lax and bball. TBD if that keeps up. So they def have things to offer besides football...which actually kind of sucks lately.

UCONN offers a bball team that has had recent success but no historical track record to suggest it will remain competitive 5+ years after Calhoun retires (this is not a UCONN dig, just depends on who they can get for their next head coach).

Rutgers is a joke, of course.

The ACC taking UCONN/rut is clearly a worst case (at this point) scenario for the league. Esp. because too much of the fanbase the ACC is a bball league, one that has not been riled with scandal, and it is uncertain UCONN would be welcome given the massive smoke that continually pours from the program.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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I think the recent report of the Big East and the Big 12 Possibly merging makes a ton of sense. Kansas, as much as it sucks losing Syracuse and Pitt more than makes up for that alone. You turn the corpse of the Big East into the premier basketball conference (assuming UConn doesn't jump) and drastically upgrade the football talent especially with TCU coming in. Wouldn't be a bad deal at all for anyone. However the big losers are teams like SMU who has been dying to get back into a BCS conference. I still think if you could somehow convince ND to join the Big East full time it would be huge!
 

Infield Infidel

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On the surface, Rutgers seems like a smart get for the ACC or Big Ten, but they suck in the two revenue sports, and they aren't a big brand. If the ACC really wants to go the 16, they won't really have many other choices though.

For the Big Ten, they aren't expanding unless they can get ND, so that puts Rutgers, Mizzou and Kansas in a holding pattern. SEC is not going beyond 14, which also puts Mizzou in a holding pattern.

Since the ACC/SEC/B1G don't have to grab anyone, I think the remaining Big 12/Big East schools merge, and whenever the former three want to grab someone, they'll do so on they're own schedule
 

Clears Cleaver

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I said this earlier, but there has to be a fifth "superconference" in order from this t work and prevent massive lawsuits. The Pac 16, the Big10/12/14, the SEC (14-16), the ACC (16) and the Big East/Big12 remnants (12-16).

The Big East / Big 12 would look something like this: WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St., Memphis, Houston, Boise St. and UCF. I am probably forgetting someone. ECU, SMU, etc etc etc

This supposes Rutgers, Uconn and mizzou get invited to one of the other conferences. WVU is a strange case. They won't be invited to the ACC due to academics and culture. they should be in the SEC, but will they get an invite ahead of FSU, Mizzou, Clemson? I have no idea
 

BigMike

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I said this earlier, but there has to be a fifth "superconference" in order from this t work and prevent massive lawsuits. The Pac 16, the Big10/12/14, the SEC (14-16), the ACC (16) and the Big East/Big12 remnants (12-16).

The Big East / Big 12 would look something like this: WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St., Memphis, Houston, Boise St. and UCF. I am probably forgetting someone. ECU, SMU, etc etc etc

This supposes Rutgers, Uconn and mizzou get invited to one of the other conferences. WVU is a strange case. They won't be invited to the ACC due to academics and culture. they should be in the SEC, but will they get an invite ahead of FSU, Mizzou, Clemson? I have no idea
There is a rumor that their application to the SEC was denied.

Hey I think that new Big East Big 12 Remnants league needs a Northeast presense, so Rutgers and Uconn stay there
 

SumnerH

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I remembered seeing this chart last year back when Big Ten expansion talk was all the buzz.

The fascination with the AAU by the Big 10 never made a lot of sense to me. There are only 61 AAU schools, and they're partially self-selected. You don't have to be particularly great academically to be in the AAU, and there are lots of schools (e.g. Dartmouth, Georgetown, Notre Dame) that aren't in the AAU but offer excellent academics and are given the highest ranking on research activities by places like CFAT.

(And if that chart is correct, even before Nebraska lost AAU membership there were about 400 school ranked more highly by Forbes that weren't AAU members).
 

TomRicardo

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Why is ND going to stick with the rotting carcases of the Big East. Sure I guess they could join the new Catholic Basketbally conference if/when that happens, but that doesn't help them in other sports where ND tries to be more relevant than many of their potential Catholic conference bretheren.

If UConn and Rutgers represent the best the ACC can add for 15 and 16, then there is no reason to expand beyond 14. Those 2 will not being enough money in to make 1/16th of the ACC tv deal with them worth more than 1/14th of the renegotiated TV deal the ACC will get without them.
Because as long Big East controls MSG for the tournament and still produces 8 tournament teams it will make more money in basketball than everyone else. Big East still makes significantly more money than the ACC in basketball and has expiring contract.

A Big 12/Big East Merger would still be the force in college basketball.
 

Royal Reader

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The Big East / Big 12 would look something like this: WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St., Memphis, Houston, Boise St. and UCF. I am probably forgetting someone. ECU, SMU, etc etc etc
Teams in Florida, Texas, Idaho? At least they're losing the Northeastern schools, and the divisions work out ok. Interdivision games will be a nightmare, though.
 

pdaj

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A Big 12/Big East Merger would still be the force in college basketball.
While part of me would be fine with the basketball-only schools pulling away and adding the likes of Xavier, Butler, and Dayton, etc., keeping football is the smarter move. Assuming UConn and Rutgers leave, the following conference could compete with any in the country:

Providence
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown
St. John's
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette

South Florida
Louisville
West Virginia
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Baylor
TCU
Cincinnati



Add one more football school like UCF, and it ain't so bad.
 

mabrowndog

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I simply cannot wrap my head around the concept of Missouri going to the SEC rather than the Big Ten. Talk about a cultural mismatch.

If anyone can provide (or link to) a cogent summary of why the SEC would/could offer them a sweeter deal, or why the Tigers would be better suited there, I'd love to see it.'

EDIT - To clarify, it's crystal clear why the SEC wants them (AAU school, regional tie-ins with Arkansas and TAMU, likely no Big 12 buyout if conference falls apart). I'm just not seeing where the SEC would be more attractive than the B1G.
 

Infield Infidel

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I simply cannot wrap my head around the concept of Missouri going to the SEC rather than the Big Ten. Talk about a cultural mismatch.

If anyone can provide (or link to) a cogent summary of why the SEC would/could offer them a sweeter deal, or why the Tigers would be better suited there, I'd love to see it.'

EDIT - To clarify, it's crystal clear why the SEC wants them (AAU school, regional tie-ins with Arkansas and TAMU, likely no Big 12 buyout if conference falls apart). I'm just not seeing where the SEC would be more attractive than the B1G.
I agree that the Big Ten is more attractive, and they'll have a better chance of competing, And the money is about the same in either conference.

But it's less what Mizzou or the SEC do than it is what the Big Ten doesn't do. The Big Ten isn't adding schools just to add schools. If they add one school, they'll have to add another and that lessens the chances that they add ND, which is their holy grail (pun sort of intended). Remember, they already passed up Mizzou last year, and Mizzou doesn't want to get left out and get stuck in the Big TwEast
 

WayBackVazquez

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Because as long Big East controls MSG for the tournament and still produces 8 tournament teams it will make more money in basketball than everyone else. Big East still makes significantly more money than the ACC in basketball and has expiring contract.
The Big East makes more money in basketball than any other conference because it had more schools. On a per school basis, the ACC crushes the Big East (which only ranks #4) $11.1 million to $9.6 million (and the Big Ten beats them both). Take away 3 of the top revenue-generating programs and put them in the ACC, and that disparity is only going to widen. In fact, Syracuse (consistently among the top 3 in attendance at over 20k per game) alone represented 12% of the total Big East Men's Basketball revenue in 2009-10. Add its $18 million to the ACC, and the ACC is making about $20 million a year more than the Big East. And that's TOTAL revenue. On a per school basis it's much, much worse. And WVU and Pitt are worth another $13 million each. Bringing in Iowa State and Oklahoma and splitting the pie with them isn't going to be the sugar that keeps Notre Dame around. And oh yeah, even before this shit-hitting-fan, ND had the lowest revenues of all Big East BBall programs, and was the only one that LOST money in basketball.

Also, you're overestimating the value of teams getting into the NCAA tournament. In 2009-10, the Big East got a distribution of $23 million from the tournament (see page nine), which gets split, and amounts to $1.44 million per school. Meanwhile, the ACC got $18.2 million, or $1.52 million per school.
 

8slim

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I don't really need Nate Silver to tell me that Rutgers and UConn probably have a lot of fans in the NYC area.

For the record, no Big East teams on that list have more fans than Georgia. He does have three above Florida State - W. Virginia, Rutgers, and Pitt (barely).
I'm not sure you're following me... Rutgers is NOT the most popular team in the NY DMA. Rutgers is not the 2nd most popular team in the NY DMA. UConn is not in the top 5. Silver's data is crap, the methodology is nonsense, something I think a site like SoSH would care about. My bad though, I meant FSU, not Georgia. He also has gems like UConn having more CFB fans than Oregon, and Troy having more fans than Stanford. Ludiicrous.
 

Infield Infidel

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I think with conferences ballooning to 14 or 16 teams, that we will see a 13th game added in short order so conferences can go to 9 conference games while still having 4 non-conf games. That makes it easier to have 7 money-making home games in the years that the conference schedule is 4-home/5-road. Ideally they start a week earlier, the last Weekend in August. I'm all for more college football.
 

StuckOnYouk

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FWIW, According to Katz just in the past few hours, ND wants to stay independent, but IF ND decides they have to go to a conference, they'd prefer the ACC over the Big 10.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I appreciate your passion, but youve been consistently wrong on this topic. One week ago you said the ACC was doomed.

ND has, recently, good Lax and bball. TBD if that keeps up. So they def have things to offer besides football...which actually kind of sucks lately.

UCONN offers a bball team that has had recent success but no historical track record to suggest it will remain competitive 5+ years after Calhoun retires (this is not a UCONN dig, just depends on who they can get for their next head coach).

Rutgers is a joke, of course.

The ACC taking UCONN/rut is clearly a worst case (at this point) scenario for the league. Esp. because too much of the fanbase the ACC is a bball league, one that has not been riled with scandal, and it is uncertain UCONN would be welcome given the massive smoke that continually pours from the program.
You should have a conversation with Coach K who thinks the ACC should add UConn.
 

Infield Infidel

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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/6995058/mwc-looking-keep-tcu-conferences-shift
The MWC, which has tried to get an automatic qualifier to the BCS to no avail, is seriously pursuing an agreement with C-USA to have a championship game between the two leagues. The idea would need NCAA legislative approval.

"The timing is perfect to be proactive and we are exploring consolidating the two leagues in football only," Thompson said.

Thompson said a sub-committee is expected to meet on the idea next week.

"We could have 22 teams (12 from C-USA and 10 from MWC), does it need to be 24? If so then the Mountain West needs two more members," Thompson said. "We don't know if there will be five or six or seven automatic qualifiers to the BCS."

C-USA commissioner Britton Banowsky confirmed through a statement that the two leagues are working on this deal.
With the BCS conferences going from six to five, the MWC/C-USA are guessing that the BCS will try to keep 6 AQ spots, and that their champ would get spot #6. I don't think this is likely

I think it's more likely that the BCS sticks with five AQ spots, and inserts a provision where a conference can get three BCS bids in one year, but the following year they are limited to two. Like, if the SEC gets three BCS bids in 2013, in 2014 they are limited to two.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Why would the ACC or Notre Dame do this?
The ACC: Gets them four games with ND right now, presumably on favorable terms (i.e. requiring them to be home-and-home, maybe even requiring some sort of rotation that sees ND playing every team in the conference). Gets pole position on ND into the conference as a full member if football independence becomes untenable. TV-wise, do I even need to go over what the Irish would be worth to the ACC as a full member? Might also be able to cut some sort of a deal where ND gets a piece of the ACC's bowl access in return for selections from the bowls

I don't think it's compelling; I don't expect the ACC to agree to something like this. But there is something in there for them, so it's not inconceivable.

ND: Gets a home for the non-football sports that is a step up from the Big East in pretty much all of them (maybe it would be a lateral move for basketball).

If you are Notre Dame, you could give two shits about securing 4 ACC games.
Yes, but it would be an acceptable cost in return for having a good and stable home for the non-football sports.

Villanova, Georgetown, and Notre Dame aren't going to screw over the other Catholic schools for the ACC.
O rly?

By all accounts, both Georgetown and Villanova have already applied to the ACC, which certainly gives the lie to any certainty that they will act in concert with anybody in the Big East.

I don't expect ND to cavalierly screw anyone over, but I do expect the Irish to do whatever needs to be done. If that means the other Catholic schools get left behind, so be it. At this point, I think just about everyone is primarily focused on looking out for #1.
 

Infield Infidel

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As far as being a non-football member, whatever the ACC offers, if the Big Ten offers the same, why wouldn't ND be more likely to go there? They already play 3 Big Ten teams, they could double that and still have 6-7 games on a national schedule. They would be far more competitive in basketball. They'd lose out on MSG, but the Big Ten tourney is usually right around the corner in Chicago or Indianapolis.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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If the Integer were to offer a full non-football membership (even with strings attached involving a handful of football games), it'd be close to a no-brainer for ND. But everything I've seen (admittedly, only from fans who follow the conference) says that such an offer would be unthinkable. I haven't seen such adamant opposition from the ACC side of things, though I'm not sure there are enough ACC folks the places I usually read for that to be indicative.

Having said that... the opposing point of view would be this: since one possible endgame is to slide from an "affiliate" membership to full football membership, ND would need to be very mindful of how intermediate agreements might play out. While the Integer is a very good destination for most sports, it's a poor option for football as it would reduce ND to a regional school (basketball would be as iffy as football for similar reasons). I wouldn't want to see ND tied to the Integer on an affiliate basis and have that preclude the ACC on a full football membership, should it be necessary for ND to go to full football membership.

FWIW, I don't think ND needs to worry about being "more competitive" in basketball. We're coming off a season where we earned a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament thankyouverymuch. Yeah, Brey appears to have some shortcomings as a tournament coach, but he's a great teacher of the game (particularly of offensive basketball) and it looks like he'll have the Irish in the tournament most seasons.
 

Sea Dog

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Sep 9, 2006
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As far as being a non-football member, whatever the ACC offers, if the Big Ten offers the same, why wouldn't ND be more likely to go there? They already play 3 Big Ten teams, they could double that and still have 6-7 games on a national schedule. They would be far more competitive in basketball. They'd lose out on MSG, but the Big Ten tourney is usually right around the corner in Chicago or Indianapolis.
Yahoo's Dan Wetzel wrote about this today.

Long story short from Wetzel: "The ACC, however, offers everything from the high school football factories of Florida to the academic power of Duke and Virginia in the Mid-Atlantic to the big subway-alum cities stretching from Washington to Boston. That's especially true if Rutgers came along as the 16th member. It's simply a more appealing geographic and demographic option than the old Big Ten. Especially in the decades to come."
 

mauf

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Big 12, obviously. As I said, Mizzou makes sense for 15. But Clemson, like I've said multiple times, is NOT an SEC target. South Carolina wouldn't stand for it, and SC, Florida, and Georgia have a pact that all three would vote against any attempt to include FSU, Clemson, or GT. Not to mention that SC is too small a state to be worth doubling down on. FSU would be a good addition, but the veto issue is still there. That leaves VTech, but would they jump from a superconference where they are a top-3 football program to one where they're mid-card, pay the exit fee, and convince the powers that be in VA to let them split from the Cavs?
See, I don't buy this. With all the money at stake, there would be hell to pay for UF if it came out they blocked a fellow in-state public school like FSU. Ditto for South Carolina if they blocked Clemson. I don't see either school's administration risking their relationship with the legislature that way. The SEC might not absorb FSU and Clemson for any number of other reasons, but I don't think in-state opposition will be a factor.

Georgia Tech is private, so that's a different story. Ditto for Miami if the SEC were interested in them. (I don't think the current scandal would dampen SEC interest as much as others here do -- which is not the same as saying it will happen.)