Colts game discussion thread

[Curtis Pride]

I don't think the Colts were necessarily soft, but that they had a few weaknesses that the Patriots were able to exploit. Apparently their biggest weakness was their front seven were vulnerable to the run when the opposing team also had an effective passing attack. The Colts were able to beat Denver because the Broncos had weaknesses to exploit, and the Colts took advantage of them.
 
The Colts were a relatively young team. They will be better as they gain more experience, and they are probably just a couple more players away from being a contender.

 

[Kliq]

Why the hell did they replace the sweet Lamar Hunt Trophy with some hollow piece of garbage?
 

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't think the Colts were necessarily soft, but that they had a few weaknesses that the Patriots were able to exploit. Apparently their biggest weakness was their front seven were vulnerable to the run when the opposing team also had an effective passing attack. The Colts were able to beat Denver because the Broncos had weaknesses to exploit, and the Colts took advantage of them.
 
The Colts were a relatively young team. They will be better as they gain more experience, and they are probably just a couple more players away from being a contender.

I disagree re: the Colts being close. The only defensive players the Colts have drafted in the first four rounds since 2011 are Bjoern Werner (scratched yesterday) and Drake Nevis (currently out of football). They need help throughout the defense, on the OL, in the receiving corps, and at RB.
 
EDIT: How many players on the Colts would start on the Patriots? I'd take Davis as our #2 corner, Allen as our #2 TE, Hilton, and ... ? Maybe Castonzo vs Solder is a toss-up? Maybe Mike Adams over Chung?

 

[rodderick]

Why the hell did they replace the sweet Lamar Hunt Trophy with some hollow piece of garbage?
 

 
They remodeled the trophy so it'd be an easier transition when they eventually rename it the "Bill Belichick Trophy".

 

[jsinger121]

I don't think the Colts were necessarily soft, but that they had a few weaknesses that the Patriots were able to exploit. Apparently their biggest weakness was their front seven were vulnerable to the run when the opposing team also had an effective passing attack. The Colts were able to beat Denver because the Broncos had weaknesses to exploit, and the Colts took advantage of them.
 
The Colts were a relatively young team. They will be better as they gain more experience, and they are probably just a couple more players away from being a contender.

They are soft as Charmin. They need a lot of toughness on both sides of the ball before they are able to take the next step. I don't see a couple of players away from being a real contender.

 

[Tony C]

They're many players away from being a good team. I don't understand the stuff about them being soft -- that implies that they're good enough, they just aren't tough enough. That's ridiculous....they aren't a very good team, they were very lucky to have an easy path the championship game, but they have a good/not great QB, one excellent receiver, and one excellent DB. Other than that they're just okay. Nothing to do with being soft -- they need more talent if they're going to contend.
 
Making it about being "soft" is Skip Bayless level analysis in which every game is a test of "having it" or other such ephemeral notions.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

On paper, the Colts seem to have an awful lot of weapons in the receiving corps, and not too many teams have found a way to control all of them.  Even in the last game, the Patriots picked their poison at the tight end position and Fleener was able to have effective plays against them, even though Allen was not in the game.  I'm really curious to see how the Xx and Os guys break down pass coverage in this game, and what changed.  With Moncrief and Hilton (and Nicks and Wayne in certain situations), Herron able to catch out of the backfiled, and Fleener and Allen, there was a lot to cover in that game.  With Luck Never targeting Wayne or Moncrief, and only 1 completion by Hilton (prior to the game he had about 90 catches on about 150 targets), you would have expected there would be room for Fleener, Allen and Herron, but there wasn't.   12 total completions by Luck.
 
The Patriots were getting a good rush, but it wasn't dominant for sure, and Luck never got sacked.  So, this was mostly coverage on one of the hardest teams in the NFL to cover.  I think getting ahead surely had a fair amount to do with their ability to cover.  Herron was pretty effective running in chunks, but they got down early and became one dimensional.  In that regard, I really the think the muffed punt was a hugely significant play in the game.  
 
Edit:  Allen, not Harron.

 

[Reverend]

On paper, the Colts seem to have an awful lot of weapons in the receiving corps, and not too many teams have found a way to control all of them.  Even in the last game, the Patriots picked their poison at the tight end position and Fleener was able to have effective plays against them, even though Allen was not in the game.  I'm really curious to see how the Xx and Os guys break down pass coverage in this game, and what changed.  With Moncrief and Hilton (and Nicks and Wayne in certain situations), Herron able to catch out of the backfiled, and Fleener and Allen, there was a lot to cover in that game.  With Luck Never targeting Wayne or Moncrief, and only 1 completion by Hilton (prior to the game he had about 90 catches on about 150 targets), you would have expected there would be room for Fleener, Allen and Herron, but there wasn't.   12 total completions by Luck.
 
The Patriots were getting a good rush, but it wasn't dominant for sure, and Luck never got sacked.  So, this was mostly coverage on one of the hardest teams in the NFL to cover.  I think getting ahead surely had a fair amount to do with their ability to cover.  Herron was pretty effective running in chunks, but they got down early and became one dimensional.  In that regard, I really the think the muffed punt was a hugely significant play in the game.  
 
Edit:  Allen, not Harron.

 
There was a very good in-game segment where they showed how the Pats, as Belichick is often want to do, did not put Revis on Hilton but instead bracketed him by having McCourty keep an eye on him over the top and used Revis to take away a different player by himself.
 
I think the idea is that even with Revis, you might have to double Hilton or at least have that be part of another player's responsibilities even though it's Revis. So instead, put Revis on someone he can handle all by himself and sorta "conserve" overall defensive resources that way.

 

[nazz45]

I disagree re: the Colts being close. The only defensive players the Colts have drafted in the first four rounds since 2011 are Bjoern Werner (scratched yesterday) and Drake Nevis (currently out of football). They need help throughout the defense, on the OL, in the receiving corps, and at RB.
 
EDIT: How many players on the Colts would start on the Patriots? I'd take Davis as our #2 corner, Allen as our #2 TE, Hilton, and ... ? Maybe Castonzo vs Solder is a toss-up? Maybe Mike Adams over Chung?

Walden is a nice player in that he isn't really deficient in any one area unlike all of their other linebackers but he is basically the Patriots version of Ninkovich. He's also 29 so he is what he is. The main issue with their defense is that Cory Redding went from one of the better 3-4 ends to one of the worst against the run and they overrated the impact of Arthur Jones, who was slapped around by Josh Kline. Also, I'd be surprised if there is a worse inside linebacker against the run than Freeman.

 

[crystalline]

How about the refereeing yesterday?

- the series at the end of the first half where Brady threw the ball into the end zone three times, to Edelman, Gronk, LaFell. That was the worst reffing run of the day over both games. *All three* plays were pass interference. Only Edelman's target was even arguable.

The Colts coaches did a good job there. With only 30 sec left, a DPI doesn't hurt you much, so the right move is to mug the receivers every play. Which they did. Still, those have to be called.

- Wilfork's PF. The ball was still in play. Bad call.

- Roughing Brady. That was questionable and I would have been ok if it was not called. Brady's head snapped back but no contact was made to the head. I thought Brady was doing some simulation. Rodgers did the same in the early game, I thought, and did not get a call. Was the Brady call because the defender used the crown of the helmet?

- I thought Luck deserved one or two calls for late hits. Not the Nink play- it looked bad in realtime but he jumped so he would largely miss Luck. There were a few others.

-

 

[dynomite]

Right, there's no need to call the Colts "soft" or some such.

They made the AFC Championship game and Luck had an incredible season. Sure, the lost the AFC Championship by 38 points and clearly couldn't play with the 2014 Patriots. But not many teams have been able to play with the 2014 Patriots since September, particularly at home.

Clearly they have serious issues to correct on that roster. But, as said above, I can't wait to take a look at the game film and see how the Patriots secondary were able to essentially neuter one of the better passing offenses in football last night. I predict Arrington is going to show up as having the best game of his career, and Revis was an absolute animal.

Edit: And I agree about a number of questionable penalties, both called and uncalled. I'm so glad none of them ended up being important, and hope the trend continues in the Super Bowl.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

One of the remarkable things about this game from an offensive perspective was that there was very little deception from the Patriots offensively in terms of run/pass.  Vereen was in the game for 30 snaps and we ran it with him once.  If he was in the backfield, we were throwing.  Blount was in the game for 42 snaps and he ran the ball 30 times (plus was back there for a couple of the QB sneaks).  If he was in the backfield, we were running at a very, very high probability.  We basically just lined up, informed the Colts what we going to do, and challenged them to stop it.  And they couldn't.

 

[dynomite]

We basically just lined up, informed the Colts what we going to do, and challenged them to stop it.  And they couldn't.

Yes, that seemed to be a theme for the Colts and their reporters after the game. The Patriots basically followed the same game plan as November... and the Colts still couldn't stop it.

"They did the same things they did last time," Colts safety Mike Adams said of the New England offense. ... Why weren't the Colts any better against the alignment this time? "Good question," Adams said. "I can't answer that question."

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/columnists/gregg-doyel/2015/01/19/colts-patriots-afc-championship-gregg-doyel/21981365/

 

[nazz45]

On paper, the Colts seem to have an awful lot of weapons in the receiving corps, and not too many teams have found a way to control all of them.  Even in the last game, the Patriots picked their poison at the tight end position and Fleener was able to have effective plays against them, even though Allen was not in the game.  I'm really curious to see how the Xx and Os guys break down pass coverage in this game, and what changed.  With Moncrief and Hilton (and Nicks and Wayne in certain situations), Herron able to catch out of the backfiled, and Fleener and Allen, there was a lot to cover in that game.  With Luck Never targeting Wayne or Moncrief, and only 1 completion by Hilton (prior to the game he had about 90 catches on about 150 targets), you would have expected there would be room for Fleener, Allen and Herron, but there wasn't.   12 total completions by Luck.
 
The Patriots were getting a good rush, but it wasn't dominant for sure, and Luck never got sacked.  So, this was mostly coverage on one of the hardest teams in the NFL to cover.  I think getting ahead surely had a fair amount to do with their ability to cover.  Herron was pretty effective running in chunks, but they got down early and became one dimensional.  In that regard, I really the think the muffed punt was a hugely significant play in the game.  
 
Edit:  Allen, not Harron.

 
I just did a quick rewatch with a focus on Ninkovich, who was even better than I thought (11 hurries, 3 qb hits, 2 batted passes on 29 pass rush attempts). Sacks are great but pressures can be just as effective. I wouldn't discount the Patriots pass rush and it's impact on Luck - he was pressured on nearly half his dropbacks and forced to throw short quite often. That they were also able to create pressure without blitzing (sometimes rushing just 3) then made it easier to defend those short pass attempts since coverage was not being sacrificed (Patriots also beat up the Colts receivers within 5 yards).

 

[crystalline]

Give the Colts a bit of credit- they very nearly did the impossible by stopping one of Brady's QB sneaks. It looked like Brady took the snap and moved to his left to a designed hole (between guard and tackle?), and went high above a Colt coming in. The Pats were lucky that Develin got behind him and could push Brady and the pile forward enough to get the conversion.

(Please correct details I got wrong, this is from memory)

 

[Kull]

 
I just did a quick rewatch with a focus on Ninkovich, who was even better than I thought (11 hurries, 3 qb hits, 2 batted passes on 29 pass rush attempts). Sacks are great but pressures can be just as effective. I wouldn't discount the Patriots pass rush and it's impact on Luck - he was pressured on nearly half his dropbacks and forced to throw short quite often. That they were also able to create pressure without blitzing (sometimes rushing just 3) then made it easier to defend those short pass attempts since coverage was not being sacrificed (Patriots also beat up the Colts receivers within 5 yards).

 
Totally agree. Lots of pressure, even w/o the sacks. And maybe part of that was keeping the contain. Luck had what, like one scramble? And even that was a fairly harmless 7 yards w/o a first down.

 

[Tony C]

Yeah, Nink just had a hell of a game -- best game of the year, if memory serves. Jones was better than the previous week, too...but still would love to see more Ayers cycling in. Jones seems to regularly lose contain, not quite sure why the Colts didn't continue to run his way more.

 

[Super Nomario]

Walden is a nice player in that he isn't really deficient in any one area unlike all of their other linebackers but he is basically the Patriots version of Ninkovich. He's also 29 so he is what he is. The main issue with their defense is that Cory Redding went from one of the better 3-4 ends to one of the worst against the run and they overrated the impact of Arthur Jones, who was slapped around by Josh Kline. Also, I'd be surprised if there is a worse inside linebacker against the run than Freeman.

If you're talking about guys like Walden as bright spots, that just about says it all. And their key guys aren't really young - Davis is just 26, but Walden is 29, as you mention, Mike Adams is 33, Toler is 30, Redding is 34, Freeman is 28, Landry is 30, Ricky Jean-Francois is 28, Butler is 28, Jones is 28 - these aren't guys who figure to get better. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

The best part is you know that Irsay is going to attempt to solve this problem by giving up a first for Fitzgerald.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

EDIT: How many players on the Colts would start on the Patriots? I'd take Davis as our #2 corner, Allen as our #2 TE, Hilton, and ... ? Maybe Castonzo vs Solder is a toss-up? Maybe Mike Adams over Chung?

In honor of Chuck Z, I'll throw McAfee's name out there.

 

[Reverend]

There was a very good in-game segment where they showed how the Pats, as Belichick is often want to do, did not put Revis on Hilton but instead bracketed him by having McCourty keep an eye on him over the top and used Revis to take away a different player by himself.

I think the idea is that even with Revis, you might have to double Hilton or at least have that be part of another player's responsibilities even though it's Revis. So instead, put Revis on someone he can handle all by himself and sorta "conserve" overall defensive resources that way.

 

[Dollar]

Yeah, Nink just had a hell of a game -- best game of the year, if memory serves. Jones was better than the previous week, too...but still would love to see more Ayers cycling in. Jones seems to regularly lose contain, not quite sure why the Colts didn't continue to run his way more.

Yep, easily Nink's best game of the year, and I'd estimate that he had more impact plays last night than in the past two months combined. And with that said, he was also blatantly held four or five times and not one of those was called a penalty. He could have easily ended up with a couple sacks were it not for getting held after getting around the lineman.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Cool, thanks for posting that Rev.  
 
I still would have thought there might be room underneath for Herron or the TEs, but I guess when the Patriots know they aren't likely to be running, that evaporates.

 

[Super Nomario]

Yep, easily Nink's best game of the year, and I'd estimate that he had more impact plays last night than in the past two months combined. And with that said, he was also blatantly held four or five times and not one of those was called a penalty. He could have easily ended up with a couple sacks were it not for getting held after getting around the lineman.

That's just called being an edge rusher come playoff time. In the two games yesterday, there was one offensive hold called total (Connolly on the Brady pick). I imagine if you were a Colts fan watching Walden and Newsome you would have found just as many instances where Solder and Vollmer could have been flagged.

 

[DJnVa]

Nink appeared to shadow Luck. That's something he may be doing to Wilson in a few weeks.

 

[crystalline]

This is awesome.

https://vine.co/v/OjUbd0zdOOv

http://gfycat.com/ViciousHandyAntipodesgreenparakeet

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The way Solder sells that is awesome. You can just imagine Newsome or whoever that is thinking, "whoa, I just beat Solder and I'm going to get Brady."

 

[crystalline]

Connoly is also fun to watch. He gets knocked to his knees and then he sees Solder release and he gets up and runs at his maximum speed to follow. You can see him thinking "If a lineman is going to score then dammit I want to be there!!"

 

[m0ckduck]

Right, there's no need to call the Colts "soft" or some such.
 

 
 

The best part is you know that Irsay is going to attempt to solve this problem by giving up a first for Fitzgerald.

 
I think it is fair to call the front office approach "soft". When you have a top-4 QB for 16 years running and play indoors, it's easy to keep focusing on developing offensive skill players when the payoff is fielding an entertaining product, making the playoffs nearly every year and treating the fans to 6-8 home wins a season, even if the downside is also getting bounced from the playoffs by more balanced teams every year that Bob Sanders and Rex Grossman aren't prominently involved. Running the Colts is like running an oil-rich country— the superficial prosperity comes so easy that it's even harder to build real prosperity. 

 

[JohnnyK]

Give the Colts a bit of credit- they very nearly did the impossible by stopping one of Brady's QB sneaks. It looked like Brady took the snap and moved to his left to a designed hole (between guard and tackle?), and went high above a Colt coming in. The Pats were lucky that Develin got behind him and could push Brady and the pile forward enough to get the conversion.

(Please correct details I got wrong, this is from memory)

http://gfycat.com/TintedSociableEquine
 
There was another sneak earlier in the drive on 2nd & 1 where Develin also pushed, but that wasn't as close - and this one was obviously 4th down.
 
EDIT: Better angle. Love Fleming mugging 2 Colts.
http://gfycat.com/NextDeafeningDanishswedishfarmdog

 

[JohnnyK]

How about the refereeing yesterday?

- the series at the end of the first half where Brady threw the ball into the end zone three times, to Edelman, Gronk, LaFell. That was the worst reffing run of the day over both games. *All three* plays were pass interference. Only Edelman's target was even arguable.

The first throw was to Amendola:
http://gfycat.com/HugeEverlastingGypsymoth
 
What's most telling here is - Amendola can't make the cut. He needs 2 steps for the cut which allows the CB to keep up.
That's a guaranteed TD if he makes a clean cut.
 
The throw to Gronk was not a PI that is consistently called. Davis (TIL: Vontae and Vernon Davis are brothers) had his hand on him, but I am not sure we wouldn't call this good D if one of the Pats' corners made the play:
http://gfycat.com/PettyFlatHorsefly
 
The third one was to Vereen (they had LaFell lined up outside, then motioned Vereen into the slot) and clear PI or at least illegal contact:
http://gfycat.com/RealisticDopeyFlamingo

 

[crystalline]

Thanks for the clips of the end zone plays.

I see Davis with his arm around Gronk's waist from behind. Depending on the crew that will get called.

I still can't believe not one of the three plays got a call.

 

[ivanvamp]

How about the refereeing yesterday?

- the series at the end of the first half where Brady threw the ball into the end zone three times, to Edelman, Gronk, LaFell. That was the worst reffing run of the day over both games. *All three* plays were pass interference. Only Edelman's target was even arguable.

The Colts coaches did a good job there. With only 30 sec left, a DPI doesn't hurt you much, so the right move is to mug the receivers every play. Which they did. Still, those have to be called.

- Wilfork's PF. The ball was still in play. Bad call.

- Roughing Brady. That was questionable and I would have been ok if it was not called. Brady's head snapped back but no contact was made to the head. I thought Brady was doing some simulation. Rodgers did the same in the early game, I thought, and did not get a call. Was the Brady call because the defender used the crown of the helmet?

- I thought Luck deserved one or two calls for late hits. Not the Nink play- it looked bad in realtime but he jumped so he would largely miss Luck. There were a few others.

-

 
Rule question.  By rule, a PI penalty in the end zone means the ball is placed at the one yard line.  But what if you have the ball at like the half-yard line and there's DPI in the end zone.  Does the ball go back to the one?  

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
Rule question.  By rule, a PI penalty in the end zone means the ball is placed at the one yard line.  But what if you have the ball at like the half-yard line and there's DPI in the end zone.  Does the ball go back to the one?  

 
I would guess it would be half the difference to the goal, which is nothing at that point.  The prize is obviously the new set of downs.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I would guess it would be half the difference to the goal, which is nothing at that point.  The prize is obviously the new set of downs.

 
Right.  But with just a few seconds left in the half, that's kind of irrelevant.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
Right.  But with just a few seconds left in the half, that's kind of irrelevant.

You are right and I think the colts played those snaps perfectly. The affect of the flag was minimal so it made sense to be overly physical and risk the flag. It's one of those odd situations where the rules do not protect one of the offenses primary advantages.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, the Pats kicked the FG with, what, 13 seconds left?
 
A new set of downs would have given them another try or two at the end zone.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Yeah, PI on Gronk gives them two more plays probably, but being in that situation without a time out is tough, because everything needs to be a quick throw to avoid the sack and you have to be worried about the pick, and you can't run. And once it gets to ten seconds, there's no disincentive to the defense just dragging down all the receivers, because the penalty doesn't put time back on the clock.

This is why I didn't like the decision to go on fourth down there. To get the first down they had to use their last time out, which increased the odds the would just have to kick anyway even if they made it, or worse that a sack would end the half. The risk reward seemed all messed up there.

One thing they could have tried on first down with :23 left was a run and then a spike on second down if they didn't get the TD. The danger there, and why I think you rarely see that, is that if you accidentally false start on the spike, it's a ten second run off.