Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects
- Thread starter JohnnyTheBone
- Start date
I like this trade particularly given the context of the AL East right now. TOR took a step back, losing EE and Joey Bats. BAL and TBR are not really top flight contenders right now (I expect BAL to take a bit of a step back as well).
And the MFYs appear to be stalling a bit for the 2018 FA class (Harper, Machado, etc). They have stock-piled some impressive prospect depth, and could be really good in a few years, depending on what signings they make from that class. And at that point, would likely be much stronger contenders for the next several years than they appear likely to be in the next 2 (with stop-gap FA signings, etc).
Fast forward to the playoffs, is Kimbrel a guy you can bring in in the 8th and tell him the game is yours? I don't think he is.
I get the bigger picture. But I think the Sox might be in a unique position in that several of their core players will still be in their primes when this "window" narrows. No one knows what tomorrow brings, but I think the cliff is two cycles away, not just one, like it often is for teams that make GFIN-ish moves.
Chelsa Messinger@ChelsaMessinger
Chris Sale's college coach just sent me this. Says he's so excited to join @RedSox
Is this an endorsement? You aren't a prospect humper or a trade the farm away guy so just curious.
Bullpen arms are fickle, Pomeranz could emerge as a relief ace, Kelly could emerge as a relief ace, Smith could emerge as a relief ace. Any of these things are possible. In fact, that's typically what Dombrowski does. He's willing to pay and occasionally overpay for everything, except middle relievers. He likes to acquire them via trade and typically those trades don't go that smoothly. Part of it is the nature of how volatile relief pitching is, in other situations the team that's trading the reliever typically knows something that we don't.
Look, the team got significantly better today. The season doesn't start tomorrow. I want a better bullpen and that's still a priority for me over Encarnacion, Alvarez, Napoli or whoever else is joining the offense.
Fair question. I dont know why not. He came in 5 times in the 8th in 2016. Seems about average for "closers."
Hopefully blue shirt, green shirt and Louisville Slugger shirt put Sale on a bit of a bulking program. His frame plus his delivery are my only reservations about this trade.
Chelsa Messinger@ChelsaMessinger
Chris Sale's college coach just sent me this. Says he's so excited to join @RedSox
Kimbrel up until last year had some of the best relief numbers...you know, ever, so, yeah, I'm willing to throw him in your arbitrary and mostly meaningless scenario. Not every closer is going to be Koji 2013, but Kimbrel over the course of his overall career is as good as they come.
Joel Pinero was a "heart attack" closer. Craig Kimbrel isn't that.
In the legs and ass? Gradually? Seems like most pitchers/athletes fill out naturally in their late 20s and early 30s anyways and manage to work with it.
I don't see why not. This year's playoffs showed us many instances of this, and yes I know some did not work (some others were dumb but that's for another thread).
Kimbrel is not the shut down infallible closer but he is an excellent closer.
Pomeranz will be in the rotation and Kelly is going to be a 5th-6th inning guy with high K potential. Smith is a question mark, but a very high upside question mark, and Thornburg/Kimbrel is a very good back end. Honestly, all they have to do is add one more arm, hopefully it's Ziegler, but I'd be okay with Koji as a very limited-use weapon. The bullpen isn't nearly the worry you're making it out to be.
I swear some of the people on this board don't watch the games. I'm seemingly in the minority on my opinions in this thread (and others), but I don't have the confidence in Kimbrel that many on here apparently do.
Pomeranz and Wright will likely compete for the #5 spot assuming everyone is healthy.
Even Koji only pitched the 8th 1 or two times in 2013 after becoming the "closer."....and then 7 times in the post season.
The next shoe to drop?
Excess starting pitching (I know you can never have too much, but still)
Clay or Pomeranz or Wright - maybe 2 of 3 are dealt
1 of the 3 catchers
Needs
Large upgrade at third base
Lights out closer?
Then just rotate at DH
Excess starting pitching (I know you can never have too much, but still)
Clay or Pomeranz or Wright - maybe 2 of 3 are dealt
1 of the 3 catchers
Needs
Large upgrade at third base
Lights out closer?
Then just rotate at DH
I assume you meant Chapman, and if your take away from that was that it was Chapman's fault, you didn't watch the game. Maddon abused the hell out of him in that series because he didn't trust all of his "good" relievers.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 52s52 seconds ago
An A.L. East executive on Sale: "Now we get to face him six times a year. [Expletive]!"
An A.L. East executive on Sale: "Now we get to face him six times a year. [Expletive]!"
Even as a member in good standing of the Prospect Industrial Complex, I'm not crushed to lose Moncada. I think Devers is a better defensive 3B anyway, which means Moncada's best position was always going to be Someone Else's 2B. And if you believe Kopech is destined to be a reliever, this is decent value for an elite player.
That said, our farm system is now legitimately thin: it's Devers, Groome, and a bunch of middle relievers. So we are no longer in a position to compete for franchise players at positions of actual need if they come on the trade market. And while this certainly takes us from contender to favorite in the short term, stripping the farm like that could take us from contender to moribund Detroit clone pretty quickly.
It'll be interesting to see what we can get for Buchholz or Pomeranz.
That said, our farm system is now legitimately thin: it's Devers, Groome, and a bunch of middle relievers. So we are no longer in a position to compete for franchise players at positions of actual need if they come on the trade market. And while this certainly takes us from contender to favorite in the short term, stripping the farm like that could take us from contender to moribund Detroit clone pretty quickly.
It'll be interesting to see what we can get for Buchholz or Pomeranz.
I think the bullpen should be decent.
Kimbel, Thornberg, Smith, Kelly, Hembree, Barnes, Robbie Ross, Workman...plenty to work with there and there's more shoes to drop.
They'll convert a backend guy like Wright, Buchholz, Johnson, Owens, Elias, Pom(?) to a reliever, presumably.
Also, you have some guys in the high minors like Kyle Martin, Williams Jerez who have plus stuff out of the BP.
Kimbel, Thornberg, Smith, Kelly, Hembree, Barnes, Robbie Ross, Workman...plenty to work with there and there's more shoes to drop.
They'll convert a backend guy like Wright, Buchholz, Johnson, Owens, Elias, Pom(?) to a reliever, presumably.
Also, you have some guys in the high minors like Kyle Martin, Williams Jerez who have plus stuff out of the BP.
yup, my bad. I meant Chapman. Maddon abused him in game 6, and yes I watched the game.
And you're saying some of us don't pay attention? The best relievers get abused in the playoffs every year. Have you forgotten about Keith Foulke?
Every trade they made today suggest the team feels they have a LARGE upgrade at 3b.
Keith Foulkes career died with the curse. That dude gave his all that year.
I watched probably 75% of games last year and I think Kimbrel is who the numbers say he is - a very good closer who is regularly hard to watch but almost always hard to hit. I'll never love him the way I love a guy like Koji, but he's low on the list of things I worry about.
I'm already worrying about Sale having a Porcello type adjustment year and / or blowing his elbow. But if we get another ring before he walks I can live with either of those.
So long as we don't end up with Drake Laroche as a bat boy, that is.
On that we can agree.
But Mariano Rivera lost one WS and blew two saves (one of them really wasn't his fault) in 2004. And he blew the 1997 ALCS when he first started closing. It happens to the best closers, and manager misuse is definitely a factor.
Given what has been done, I don't see the Sosx signing Jensen or Chapman.
A lot of them will be FAs by then, though, or at least paid like FAs. The window is now when so much talent is pre-arb or early arbitration and still very affordable.
Chapman also had one pretty poor game in each of the other two series. None of this means anything other than the idea of a "lights-out" closer usually transcends reality except for one guy every year (koji '13, Britton '16).
I am stunned this is a real thing. I like Moncada, but the fact that his floor is so low is pretty scary for a top prospect. The k rate is abysmal and while some young players adjust to off-speed pitching over time, many do not. Kopech I really like as a potential closer, but man, getting a top 5ish pitcher in baseball with an insanely good contract seems like a coup. I would have this shit faxed to the commissioner ASAP before the White Sox can change their minds.
Absolutely not. Keith Foulke gave up his career for the 2004 Sox. My point was that Chapman was abused unnecessarily and it nearly cost the Cubs the World Series. Miller was overused as well, but I don't think he ever got to the point of fatigue that Chapman was at. With all that said, I don't see the present construction of the Sox bullpen capable of having guys do that. Admittedly I haven't seen Thornburg much at all, and I think there's a chance that Kelly could become that reliable. However, I still think they need an additional substantial arm in the pen.
The prospect system has been stripped because of all the promotions. DD just traded away the pieces that were far away and/or excess so as not to waste the current talent on the ML roster. GFIN mode indeed.
Where are those positions of need? The OF is set for years, 2B is capably filled, have a young gun at SS, C has multiple options, 1B has Hanley for 2 more years and we're stuck with Pablo at 3B. So there's only one position that might need filling and that's the position that our now-top-prospect happens to play.
The farm can be rebuilt. The key is the trades they are making are for younger, cost-controlled elite (Sale) or very good (Thornburg) players. It's not like they are giving these guys away for Pablo.
This'll be my last post about Kimbrel in the Sale thread, but here's two career lines:
2.76 ERA, 205 ERA+, 1.0 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
1.86 ERA, 210 ERA+, .949 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 14.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
One of those guys is Mariano Rivera. The other is our "heart attack" closer.
2.76 ERA, 205 ERA+, 1.0 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
1.86 ERA, 210 ERA+, .949 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 14.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
One of those guys is Mariano Rivera. The other is our "heart attack" closer.
Does that money count against the luxury tax limit? If so, is it just added to this year's total, or each year?
There's a difference between giving up bloop singles that fall in vs. walking the world (as it felt like Allen may do a few times this post season). I'm ok with Kimbrel being the closer, but I'd love it if he wasn't the best reliever on the team.
Bruce Levine reported on Chicago radio (670 The Score) that the Red Sox will pay the full freight of Moncada's remaining bonus $, in the neighborhood of $31M. This probably was the reason the White Sox stopped asking for Betts, 10D, et al.
I was talking Diaz who pitched in Greenville last year. Fastball only with no command.
I'm pretty sure it was money already spent and no it doesn't count against the luxury tax limit. This was one of the last few cash only exploit signings to happen. He's on a normal minor league contract.
Again, I ask, do you watch the games? If you're trying to sell me or any sane person that Kimbrel is less anxiety inducing for a manager than Rivera, you're nuts. Otherwise, why post this argument?