Choose Your Own Adventure: Celtics 2020 Offseason

EL Jeffe

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I like Kemba as a player and love his personality but he has several major things working against him:

1. His defense is terrible. He was hunted like crazy by Miami. His offense was generally fine outside of some cold shooting but his defense really hurt us. Brad can only scheme so much.
Is his defense really so terrible? His 2020 playoff DWS were 0.8, the same as Kyle Lowry's. Kyrie was -0.1 in the playoffs last year, for reference.

In the list of things that went wrong this playoffs, Kemba and Kemba's defense aren't near the top from me.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is his defense really so terrible? His 2020 playoff DWS were 0.8, the same as Kyle Lowry's. Kyrie was -0.1 in the playoffs last year, for reference.

In the list of things that went wrong this playoffs, Kemba and Kemba's defense aren't near the top from me.
That's fine but, yes, his defense is bad and was easily exploited by Miami.
 

Average Game James

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That's fine but, yes, his defense is bad and was easily exploited by Miami.
Is that really just a Kemba issue? Or is that a function of most PGs in the league being attackable if you can switch them on to someone like Bam or Butler? The list of point guards that can hold their own chasing around guys like Robinson and Herro and not get destroyed when switched onto guys like Bam and Butler that aren't complete zeros on offense doesn't have more than a handful of names on it... Smart, Brogdon, and ???
 

BigSoxFan

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Is that really just a Kemba issue? Or is that a function of most PGs in the league being attackable if you can switch them on to someone like Bam or Butler? The list of point guards that can hold their own chasing around guys like Robinson and Herro and not get destroyed when switched onto guys like Bam and Butler that aren't complete zeros on offense doesn't have more than a handful of names on it... Smart, Brogdon, and ???
It can be both. Miami is a very tough team to guard when their shooters are hot but Kemba just isn't a good defender much like IT isn't a good defender. It's not for lack of effort or anything like that. He's just short for a guard and his quickness was diminished due to his knee troubles. I'm hoping that better knee health can help alleviate some of this issue and the reality is that not every team can attack him as effectively as Miami. For instance, he was just fine against Philly, IMO. Ultimately, he's still a net positive player for this team so even if I don't like the contract, he still has considerable utility for this team, especially if he can regain his late 2019 form where he was almost single-handedly winning games for us. And as the Jay's continue to grow, we'll need less and less from Kemba over time.
 

Swedgin

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Would you please expand on what Nance would bring to the Celtics? Lifetime, he shoots 32% from three point land.

He is 6’7” tall, so I don’t think he can play center. Unless you are thinking as a small ball center. Is Nance better than G. Williams?
Sure.

First, lifetime three percentage is not a particularly useful way to measure the current ability of a big, like Nance, who did not enter the league as a shooter (and did so at a time when shooting among bigs was not as much of a priority). He shot .337 last year on 1.5 attempts a game and .352 on 2.8 on game last year. I do not seem him becoming elite, but I would forecast him as stretchy as Horford.

As to what I like, I think he fits the bill in what the Celtics should want in a big. On offense, he's not looking for his own shot but can space out to a three I(a little.) He provides a real vertical threat. He sets excellent screens. He makes good decisions on the short roll. See his 3.0 and 4.3 assists per 36 over the last two years (compare to 2.6 and 2.7 for Theis). Defensively, he can move his feet some and is a good positional defender. It is hard to assess given the mess that is Cleveland's defense, but he seems likes he is making the right rotations. Yes is he is 6-7. Theis is 6-8. Nance has a 7-1 wingspan, Theis is at 7.0. He can play Center in the current NBA in most (but not all) matchups.

I think he is between Timelord and Theiss. More athletic and a better offensive decision make than Theiss, not the athlete that Timelord is, but less mistake prone on defense. The skill he brings to the table are wasted on the Cavs.

Finally, I too like Grant Williams and would not be looking to include him in the deal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, the idea that no other team was going to sign Kemba to a max contract is a fake narrative that needs to go away.
Who is talking about last year? This year is much different when a 6-foot guard suddenly declines at age 30. When I say nobody would touch him it also includes the difficulty in a deal ever getting done to match salary. He was seen as an asset last summer.....he surely isn’t viewed as an asset when you tie that contract around his neck.
 

NomarsFool

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Kemba was a remarkably durable player before this season. He played in 79-82 games the last 4 seasons. If he was a free agent this year, after his knee problems, I think he would have faced a different market (CBA / Covid issues aside)
 

the moops

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Who is talking about last year? This year is much different when a 6-foot guard suddenly declines at age 30. When I say nobody would touch him it also includes the difficulty in a deal ever getting done to match salary. He was seen as an asset last summer.....he surely isn’t viewed as an asset when you tie that contract around his neck.
He is on a 3 year max deal. While you wouldn't get any top prospect or super high draft pick for him, it's not as if you would have to take back Wiggins in a deal.

Looking at the largest contracts in the league, I like his deal for the next 3 years over Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Harris, Conley, Hayward, Love, Wiggins, Russell, Porter, Derozan, Horford.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He is on a 3 year max deal. While you wouldn't get any top prospect or super high draft pick for him, it's not as if you would have to take back Wiggins in a deal.
But you would have to take back a Wiggins if we wanted to move Kemba due to the contracts. (No, I’m not suggesting we trade Kemba for Wiggins)

Looking at the largest contracts in the league, I like his deal for the next 3 years over Westbrook, Wall, Griffin, Harris, Conley, Hayward, Love, Wiggins, Russell, Porter, Derozan, Horford.
Aren’t most of those contracts similar to Kemba’s? None of them are assets.....if any of those guys are moved it will be for another enormous contract from a declining or soon to be declining player.
 

lexrageorge

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I guess there is no chance of the Celtics winning the Maximizing Contract Value Trophy in the near future.
 

reggiecleveland

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Kemba was a remarkably durable player before this season. He played in 79-82 games the last 4 seasons. If he was a free agent this year, after his knee problems, I think he would have faced a different market (CBA / Covid issues aside)
Not to pick on the guy but he tended to get the playoffs off.
 

the moops

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Aren’t most of those contracts similar to Kemba’s? None of them are assets.....if any of those guys are moved it will be for another enormous contract from a declining or soon to be declining player.
All those guys have worse contracts, IMO. Of the highest paid players in the league, I am arguing that Kemba is pretty neutral. Wouldn't have to attach an asset to trade him, but also wouldn't get too much value back.

If he could be had for nothing but cap space, there would be plenty of teams interested
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Guarantee the Knicks would take Kemba in a heartbeat, contract and all. New York native, All Star, and since when have they cared about knee issues.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ainge saying today that Kemba was never right in the bubble w/r/t his knee. No surgery planned, but they are developing a plan to try to get him right.

He also said this
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1311671080021569537

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1311671324725608455
Trader Danny is back and he’s back big! Kemba news is not surprising at all. Really hope that knee can be managed. You have to wonder what Ainge is targeting now.
 

Devizier

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Coming clean about the knee means that Kemba is probably not on the block.

Ainge has to be hoping Kanter and Hayward opt-in (seems likely).
 

lovegtm

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I think the Celtics would find several suiters for Kemba and his deal should that be the route they want to go
Yeah, he's a great floor-raiser: if you add him to a decent young core, you're probably going to the playoffs.
I like Kemba as a player and love his personality but he has several major things working against him:

1. His defense is terrible. He was hunted like crazy by Miami. His offense was generally fine outside of some cold shooting but his defense really hurt us. Brad can only scheme so much.

2. Knee issues. Nobody knows what the next 3 seasons hold for him but there is more than enough reason to be concerned on this front. He was hurt before COVID and still was hurt when play resumed. This is likely going to be a load management situation for the remainder of his contract, which is fine because we have Smart and maybe a 2020 draftee, but it warrants watching.

3. He’s a 6’0 guard entering his age 31 season. He’s not falling off a cliff next year but the cliff is coming and probably fast. The history of guards of his size after 30 is just not good at all. And he may have knee issues to boot.

The Celtics need to figure out a Kawhi-esque plan with Kemba to keep him fresh. Perfectly fine if he sits out some regular season games. We’ll be fine.
Yeah, this.

I'll add that evaluating a guy based on what happened in the playoffs isn't recency bias; it's how the NBA works. The 16-game season is completely different animal than the 82-game one, and if it seems like a veteran has deficiencies when put in that crucible for basically the first time, that fact will and should dominate his regular season record.

To the extent that the playoff issues were due to knee trouble...that's even worse. He's a massively underwater asset until proven otherwise.
 

lexrageorge

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Yeah, he's a great floor-raiser: if you add him to a decent young core, you're probably going to the playoffs.

Yeah, this.

I'll add that evaluating a guy based on what happened in the playoffs isn't recency bias; it's how the NBA works. The 16-game season is completely different animal than the 82-game one, and if it seems like a veteran has deficiencies when put in that crucible for basically the first time, that fact will and should dominate his regular season record.

To the extent that the playoff issues were due to knee trouble...that's even worse. He's a massively underwater asset until proven otherwise.
If those deficiencies are caused by a knee issue that resolves itself, then I don't see how that's worse. Kyrie Irving had chronic knee issues his first season here, was a sieve on D by the halfway point, and missed the playoffs entirely. He was 100% physically (key qualifier there) the following season.

I don't think trading Kemba was ever on Ainge's mind, either when he signed him or when the playoffs ended.
 

benhogan

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https://theathletic.com/2108153/2020/10/01/danny-ainge-celtics-takeaways/
Ainge believed it was obvious that Walker didn’t have the same burst throughout the playoffs as he did early in the season.
“He was definitely not himself,” Ainge said. “In fairness to Kemba, he doesn’t want to say that. He doesn’t say that to our coaches, he doesn’t say that to you, the media, he doesn’t say that to me. I haven’t heard one excuse from him. But watching the games, even the games we won, even the games where he played well, I could tell he wasn’t the same physically as he was in October, November, December. So we’re going to try to get that Kemba back.”
Ainge said that, as far as he is aware, there are no plans for Walker to undergo offseason surgery. Still, nursing Walker back to full strength could be a challenge. Even after the four-month midseason hiatus, he experienced discomfort. The Celtics kept him out of practices early, limited his minutes throughout the seeding games and even handled him carefully during some stages of the playoffs.



The Celtics not knowing exactly what is wrong with Kemba's knee is a terrible approach. We realize Kemba is a "competitor", "frustrated, "gives 100%" etc BUT let's get some tests done Danny, and figure this crap out now. This feels like Chris Sale all over again. Everyone walking on eggshells around the expensive, precious veteran star. With a GM unwilling to admit error and justifying a max deal.

This form of Kemba will have to be handled with kid gloves, load mgmt galore, minute restrictions, etc. Hidden against regular-season opponents 2nd units. This will make his adv metrics look better BUT doesn't do much for Playoff Celtics. While I think Brad Wanamaker is a nice cheap, veteran bench piece the Celtics should start looking (via the draft) for a young ball handler to line up with Tatum/Brown timelines. At least with this form of Kemba, we'll get that 2nd unit scorer we need.

Halliburton has become my new draft binky (and possibly use the 2nd rounder for Winston or Dotson). This also puts "the best of": Terry, Anthony, Lewis in play at 14
 

nighthob

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If the rebuilt shot sticks Hampton is probably better than any of the other options. And with Walker you have a couple of years to grow Hampton’s game as a lead guard.
 

lexrageorge

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https://theathletic.com/2108153/2020/10/01/danny-ainge-celtics-takeaways/
Ainge believed it was obvious that Walker didn’t have the same burst throughout the playoffs as he did early in the season.
“He was definitely not himself,” Ainge said. “In fairness to Kemba, he doesn’t want to say that. He doesn’t say that to our coaches, he doesn’t say that to you, the media, he doesn’t say that to me. I haven’t heard one excuse from him. But watching the games, even the games we won, even the games where he played well, I could tell he wasn’t the same physically as he was in October, November, December. So we’re going to try to get that Kemba back.”
Ainge said that, as far as he is aware, there are no plans for Walker to undergo offseason surgery. Still, nursing Walker back to full strength could be a challenge. Even after the four-month midseason hiatus, he experienced discomfort. The Celtics kept him out of practices early, limited his minutes throughout the seeding games and even handled him carefully during some stages of the playoffs.



The Celtics not knowing exactly what is wrong with Kemba's knee is a terrible approach. We realize Kemba is a "competitor", "frustrated, "gives 100%" etc BUT let's get some tests done Danny, and figure this crap out now. This feels like Chris Sale all over again. Everyone walking on eggshells around the expensive, precious veteran star. With a GM unwilling to admit error and justifying a max deal.

This form of Kemba will have to be handled with kid gloves, load mgmt galore, minute restrictions, etc. Hidden against regular-season opponents 2nd units. This will make his adv metrics look better BUT doesn't do much for Playoff Celtics. While I think Brad Wanamaker is a nice cheap, veteran bench piece the Celtics should start looking (via the draft) for a young ball handler to line up with Tatum/Brown timelines. At least with this form of Kemba, we'll get that 2nd unit scorer we need.

Halliburton has become my new draft binky (and possibly use the 2nd rounder for Winston or Dotson). This also puts "the best of": Terry, Anthony, Lewis in play at 14
There is no universe in which Ainge, or any other NBA GM, comes out says "I regret giving Kemba a max contract".

I do agree Ainge's comments are a bit unsettling, in that I would have expected Ainge, Walker, and the team's medical staff to have a sit down and go over offseason plans. At the same time, Kemba was probably itching to get home and spend some family time after months in the bubble, and another couple of weeks is not going to change anything dramatically. Still, you don't get knee surgery unless you need it, and sometimes these things lie in the numerous grey areas between "rest and rehab" and surgery, so I don't expect any big reveal of information that fans will be happy with.
 

NomarsFool

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I know fans always want surgery sooner rather than later so that players are ready for the next season, but my friend who is a surgeon once told me that you should really, really try and avoid surgery whenever possible. So, medically, there is often a good reason to wait as long as possible before deciding to go under the knife.
 

bakahump

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I think thats a great statement by Ainge.

He takes a bunch of heat off Kemba, (hes a warrior...wouldnt have it any other way...wanted to be out there...play through pain...doing all he could to help his team ....even in wins when he had good games).

While also acknowledging something was VERY wrong with that version of Kemba.

I dont believe for a minute they didnt know what was wrong. This was spin. To keep Kemba in the good graces, but also to acknowledge he wasnt right.


As far as the "We will see" thing with the knee. Does 2 weeks or a month really move the needle? I can see the team saying "Go home, spend some quality time with those you havent seen for 2-3 months. BUT if that isnt showing the results we need to look into some next steps." So instead of being back in Jan he comes back in Feb...or March. Plenty of time to ramp up for the playoffs. Which we all seem to acknowledge is whats really the end goal.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think thats a great statement by Ainge.

He takes a bunch of heat off Kemba, (hes a warrior...wouldnt have it any other way...wanted to be out there...play through pain...doing all he could to help his team ....even in wins when he had good games).

While also acknowledging something was VERY wrong with that version of Kemba.

I dont believe for a minute they didnt know what was wrong. This was spin. To keep Kemba in the good graces, but also to acknowledge he wasnt right.


As far as the "We will see" thing with the knee. Does 2 weeks or a month really move the needle? I can see the team saying "Go home, spend some quality time with those you havent seen for 2-3 months. BUT if that isnt showing the results we need to look into some next steps." So instead of being back in Jan he comes back in Feb...or March. Plenty of time to ramp up for the playoffs. Which we all seem to acknowledge is whats really the end goal.
It's probably something he's dealing with that really does not require surgery. My guess is that he's got little to no cartilage in his knee and it's going to be a chronic problem. It's about pain management and rehabbing it as much as he can.
 

bakahump

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Which is certainly possible @RedOctober3829. Of course if thats the case then there is not much they can do now anyway. So sunk cost, get as much value as possible as you can. (which we acknowledge will be in the form of on court production rather then aquiring different talent. And I dont remember any MM Qbs complaining last year when they signed him.
 

Jimbodandy

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It's probably something he's dealing with that really does not require surgery. My guess is that he's got little to no cartilage in his knee and it's going to be a chronic problem. It's about pain management and rehabbing it as much as he can.
Yeah I wish that this was a predictable as the Chris Sale situation mentioned upthread. We know the outcome and timeline bands on stuff like UCL surgery.

Assuming all the usual cleanup/synvisc stuff has been tried, it's either microfracture or management afaik, and both suck.
 

BaseballJones

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I think this team can win a lot of regular season games without Kemba, so the plan ought to be (from where I sit) to rest him and see if that takes care of it. If not, hopefully a relatively minor procedure that might keep him out a few months. Hoping that at worst, he'd be up and running by March, which would get him in good basketball shape for the playoffs, where a fully healthy Kemba would be an enormous help to the team.

I guess just echoing what @bakahump said.
 

BigSoxFan

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We’ll just have to wait and see. If Jan/Feb Kemba is the same as Sep Kemba, then we’ve got a problem. We have Smart entering his prime and probably will have Hayward so we can survive his load management.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Given Ainge's comments about the potential to spend into luxury tax as well as giving Kemba more rest, I strongly suspect they will upgrade the Wanamaker spot. The Plumber was great production for his contract and a wonderful NBA persistence story. However if you compare him to the seventh guy coming off the bench for the other three conference finalists, its clear that one of these things is not like the other.

I don't know that Ainge will get another ballhandler because as is noted upthread, the cost of any contract that gets them into the tax comes with leverage but getting another veteran who can give them ball-handling and playmaking off the bench would be huge and provide them with a bit more insurance if Walkers issues are ongoing and/or they want to play both him and Smart off the ball.
 

chilidawg

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Porter/Morris/Craig
Rondo/Kuzma/Caruso
Herro/Igoudala/Olynyk
Smart (or Hayward)/Wanamaker/GW/RW.

Yeah, one of those things is clearly not like the others. Hadn't quite really thought it out like that.
 

lovegtm

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If those deficiencies are caused by a knee issue that resolves itself, then I don't see how that's worse. Kyrie Irving had chronic knee issues his first season here, was a sieve on D by the halfway point, and missed the playoffs entirely. He was 100% physically (key qualifier there) the following season.

I don't think trading Kemba was ever on Ainge's mind, either when he signed him or when the playoffs ended.
Trust me, I want to see Kemba healthy as much as anyone, and it would be great if his knee issues are fixable.

However, if it's something degenerative due to age...woof. You quickly enter "maybe the league's upcoming financial issues will generate some amnesties" territory.
 

benhogan

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Which is certainly possible @RedOctober3829. Of course if thats the case then there is not much they can do now anyway. So sunk cost, get as much value as possible as you can. (which we acknowledge will be in the form of on court production rather then aquiring different talent. And I dont remember any MM Qbs complaining last year when they signed him.
If "rest" is the Celtics/Kemba's approach going forward, color me skeptical since we just witnessed 4 months off. Brad can hide him against opponents' 2nd units next season. That's an OK solution BUT less than ideal come playoff time. Danny basically signed a 2017 IT4 to a MAX contract right in the midst of the Jays leaping. There were other tacts DAR could have taken.

and Yes there were questions/concerns about allocating a MAX contract to 30yr old Kemba (w/ plenty of mileage) during the Jays timeline last summer. This isn't MM QBing.
 
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Jimbodandy

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To be fair, I don't remember a single concern raised that Kemba had a degenerative knee issue at signing time. If that was known, a lot of us would have questioned it.

Some here questioned a 6' guard, but most didn't (myself included).

Kyrie's knee issue was nothing like this and is a red herring for this conversation. He had somewhat normal complications from a previous patella injury. What Kemba seems to have is bone on bone.
 

chilidawg

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Celtics Wire with 3 trade ideas with the Clippers:

1. Carsen and Kanter for Zubac. In a heartbeat, but I'd find it hard to believe the Clips would do this.
2. Lou Williams for Theis, Poirier, and 14. No way in fucking hell.
3. Paul George for Hayward, 14, 30 and a 2021 first. Interesting idea. Is George that much better than Hayward? I think yes.

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2020/09/17/boston-celtics-3-clippers-trades/3/
 

BigSoxFan

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Celtics Wire with 3 trade ideas with the Clippers:

1. Carsen and Kanter for Zubac. In a heartbeat, but I'd find it hard to believe the Clips would do this.
2. Lou Williams for Theis, Poirier, and 14. No way in fucking hell.
3. Paul George for Hayward, 14, 30 and a 2021 first. Interesting idea. Is George that much better than Hayward? I think yes.

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2020/09/17/boston-celtics-3-clippers-trades/3/
Celtics can’t afford 4 multi year max contracts. George is a nonstarter.
 

lovegtm

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Celtics can’t afford 4 multi year max contracts. George is a nonstarter.
Only 1+1 left on the deal though, and he likely opts out. It would basically be a GFIN move, sacrificing the 14+30 picks to do it.

If you do that trade and sign a Baynes type, the Cs are likely title favorites regardless of Kemba’s status.
 

BigSoxFan

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Only 1+1 left on the deal though, and he likely opts out. It would basically be a GFIN move, sacrificing the 14+30 picks to do it.

If you do that trade and sign a Baynes type, the Cs are likely title favorites regardless of Kemba’s status.
Ah, I thought that second year was locked in. Still find it incredibly unlikely Clips would want to exchange George for Hayward and some relatively low value picks in a year where they’re going to face immense pressure to at least make the WCF.

Obviously a trade most of us would make.
 

lexrageorge

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Bringing in Paul George was a big reason Kawhi wanted to sign with the Clips. I don't think LAC is going to disrupt that just to get a couple of mediocre picks in a mediocre draft and Hayward.
 

Average Game James

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Only 1+1 left on the deal though, and he likely opts out. It would basically be a GFIN move, sacrificing the 14+30 picks to do it.

If you do that trade and sign a Baynes type, the Cs are likely title favorites regardless of Kemba’s status.
That would be basically signing Kawhi’s ticket out of town after next season by the Clips, no? Unless behind the scenes Kawhi is no happy with George?
 

BaseballJones

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Agree that the George trade idea isn't happening for a bunch of reasons. But holy smokes imagine this team with Brown, Tatum, and George on the floor at the same time? That's three elite two-way wing players. Would be amazing. But....not happening.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I have no insight into the Celtics thinking but after the Irving experience, I suspect that the top of the house wants to be very careful about how any roster changes affect chemistry. That doesn't mean that they would not call on George but the locker room fit will likely carry more weight with Boston than with other teams.
 

benhogan

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Semi's 3pt/FT improvement, work ethic, attitude and cheapness kind of leads me to think #14/15 isn't a bad place for him. BUT his ON/OFF #s this year backs up the eye test, he gums up the offense. AND he's not nearly as good as his defensive reputation. Guys he guards get into the paint and easily shoot over him unchallenged.

I'd rather see both Granite and Romeo on the floor. If the C's go wing heavy in this draft (hoping they can get Woodard/Bane types around 26/30). Then plan on letting Semi go elsewhere once Romeo is healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/ojelese01/on-off/2020
 

NomarsFool

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I have a hard time seeing Semi staying on the team unless something dramatic happens with the Celtics' draft picks (the package them or trade them). Is Semi a reasonable player #14 or #15 on your roster? Sure. But, when you need those roster spots for developing players, there just isn't much room.

I just haven't seen his defensive ability be that impactful in what seems like forever. I feel like I see him "playing good defense" and the players he is guarding still score. Well, if that's the case - there wasn't that much value contributed.
 

chilidawg

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Semi's 3pt/FT improvement, work ethic, attitude and cheapness kind of leads me to think #14/15 isn't a bad place for him. BUT his ON/OFF #s this year backs up the eye test, he gums up the offense. AND he's not nearly as good as his defensive reputation. Guys he guards get into the paint and easily shoot over him unchallenged.

I'd rather see both Granite and Romeo on the floor. If the C's go wing heavy in this draft (hoping they can get Woodard/Bane types around 26/30). Then plan on letting Semi go elsewhere once Romeo is healthy.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/ojelese01/on-off/2020
Yup
 

CapeCodYaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2020
68
I say re-sign hayward and Kanter--when they are healthy it changes the look and options on the team--they need an inside banger and if Hayward is healthy teams have to cover him--his first game back against the Heat showed his impact----thought nothing the next game