Choose Your Own Adventure: Celtics 2020 Offseason

the moops

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I hope for a Kemba to NYK, Holiday to BOS, assorted picks to NOP.

I like the super small ball lineup of all switchable guys in Jrue, Smart, Hayward, Jaylen, Tatum
 

Cellar-Door

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View: https://twitter.com/AdamMKaufman/status/1326950877786218499


This is speculation not reporting, but it does make sense in terms of the type of dealing I would guess Ainge would like to do... whether you love the fit.... different story.

But Hayward and picks for Holiday then Kemba either directly for a big or for pieces to get a big, would make sense.

edit- Also I think he has the Hayward/Kemba part backwards. Kemba is what gets the big, Hayward is the salary for a Holiday deal.
 

DJnVa

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View: https://twitter.com/AdamMKaufman/status/1326950877786218499


This is speculation not reporting, but it does make sense in terms of the type of dealing I would guess Ainge would like to do... whether you love the fit.... different story.

But Hayward and picks for Holiday then Kemba either directly for a big or for pieces to get a big, would make sense.

edit- Also I think he has the Hayward/Kemba part backwards. Kemba is what gets the big, Hayward is the salary for a Holiday deal.

Yeah--saying it's "possible" leaves so much wiggle room that it can be either a guy playing with NBA Trade Machine or something he's heard inklings of, but not enough to really do more than tweet about it.
 
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nighthob

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Right, but think it through: if Hayward doesn't want out you just keep him. He's as good a playmaker as Holiday and you don't need him defensively---you have Smart/Brown in the backcourt. That's what drives the move---though I agree if you have to make a Hayward move you consider Walker's situation in who you acquire. You have the thinking backwards.
We've had this discussion endlessly, thanks to Tatum going full sunshine supernova Hayward was always going to be leaving as Boston needs one more luxury tax reset to get them through the Walker years. Keeping Hayward long term was never an option unless he were willing to sign for Terry Rozier money. So that's absolutely not what's driving it. Because you could just put Marcus in the starting lineup and use the Hayward trade to add future assets and strengthen the bench and get equivalent results.

But with Walker unhealthy they absolutely need a guy that can be the full time point guard when Walker's out (and it seems very likely that in a covid-compressed schedule that Walker will miss at least a third of the season).
 

PedroKsBambino

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We've had this discussion endlessly, thanks to Tatum going full sunshine supernova Hayward was always going to be leaving as Boston needs one more luxury tax reset to get them through the Walker years. Keeping Hayward long term was never an option unless he were willing to sign for Terry Rozier money. So that's absolutely not what's driving it. Because you could just put Marcus in the starting lineup and use the Hayward trade to add future assets and strengthen the bench and get equivalent results.

But with Walker unhealthy they absolutely need a guy that can be the full time point guard when Walker's out (and it seems very likely that in a covid-compressed schedule that Walker will miss at least a third of the season).
Your economic assumptions haven't matched what the NBA actually decided, so I'll continue to note that we don't have a basis for asssuming Hayward cannot stay financially. If it plays out he has to leave, then we agree that is the first domino here.

I don't believe they feel the need to specifically replace Walker with a PG-type, and would guess they prefer Hayward as a ballhandler to Holliday anyway. I get you are very focusd on the need to replace him---I just don't think they will be.
 

nighthob

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I hope for a Kemba to NYK, Holiday to BOS, assorted picks to NOP.

I like the super small ball lineup of all switchable guys in Jrue, Smart, Hayward, Jaylen, Tatum
Kemba to the Knicks for filler/#8, with #8/#26/filler to New Orleans, and Holiday to Boston does seem to be the best possible result. Assuming that Kemba's on board going to the Knicks (and I can't imagine that Rose couldn't sell Walker on it) that works well for all three teams. The Knicks have the bodies to baby Walker through the season, and would still have the cap space to add a free agent.

That leaves Boston working out the mechanics of the Hayward deal with the Pacers, leaves them a pick to nab Tillman as the C of the future and even a mid lottery pick for a developmental prospect like Hampton.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Kemba to the Knicks for filler/#8, with #8/#26/filler to New Orleans, and Holiday to Boston does seem to be the best possible result. Assuming that Kemba's on board going to the Knicks (and I can't imagine that Rose couldn't sell Walker on it) that works well for all three teams. The Knicks have the bodies to baby Walker through the season, and would still have the cap space to add a free agent.

That leaves Boston working out the mechanics of the Hayward deal with the Pacers, leaves them a pick to nab Tillman as the C of the future and even a mid lottery pick for a developmental prospect like Hampton.
I agree, that's the deal I was thinking of as well though I think the Knicks might need 26 as well and then would send 8 to New Orleans. But basically, the Knicks overpaying some to get Walker and a "name", the Pelicans wanting a top pick, and the Celtics liking Holiday all makes good sense I think. The less valuable pieces one can move around with the equation.
 

nighthob

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Your economic assumptions haven't matched what the NBA actually decided, so I'll continue to note that we don't have a basis for asssuming Hayward cannot stay financially. If it plays out he has to leave, then we agree that is the first domino here.

I don't believe they feel the need to specifically replace Walker with a PG-type, and would guess they prefer Hayward as a ballhandler to Holliday anyway. I get you are very focusd on the need to replace him---I just don't think they will be.
Boston is going to be over the luxury tax this season ('20-'21), even with the artificially high cap/tax. Next year Tatum will be making 30% of the artificially high cap. Tatum, Walker, Brown, and Smart would be making approximately $116 million between them in '21-'22. How much do you think Boston could pay Hayward and dodge the luxury tax? By year two of Tatum's deal Boston would have triggered the repeater tax and the payroll expenses would mushroom. One more reset was always necessary once Tatum became a supermax player. (And that's not a complaint, we want guys that become supermax players.)
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah--saying it's "possible" leaves so much wiggle room that it can be either a guy playing with NBA Trade Machine or something he's heard inklings of, but not enough to really do more than tweet about it.
36270

(Sorry, couldn't resist...)
 

Cellar-Door

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Boston is going to be over the luxury tax this season ('20-'21), even with the artificially high cap/tax. Next year Tatum will be making 30% of the artificially high cap. Tatum, Walker, Brown, and Smart would be making approximately $116 million between them in '21-'22. How much do you think Boston could pay Hayward and dodge the luxury tax? By year two of Tatum's deal Boston would have triggered the repeater tax and the payroll expenses would mushroom. One more reset was always necessary once Tatum became a supermax player. (And that's not a complaint, we want guys that become supermax players.)
I don't know for sure that is true though. And the rumored moves the Celtics are looking at don't seem to back it up. Moving on from Hayward to bring in Jrue? That saves a bit of money this year, but not any more than a long-term deal with Hayward would.

So looking at it....

Assuming:
1. Kanter picks up the player option
2. Celtics guarantee Theis
3. Semi, Green and Wanamaker go.

You're at 104,892,122 without Hayward or any draft picks.

If you want to stay under the tax you have about 27.7M to work with.

trading all the picks plus Hayward for Jrue gets you little under $2M under. You could just as easily sign Hayward to a deal similar to Jrue's and move the picks somewhere else and have the same cap impact.

If Hayward is traded it is likely less about the cap (unless he gets a BIG deal elsewhere) and more about wanting to go somewhere else.

You could pretty easily re-sign Hayward for anything under 26M a year, staple 26 or 30 to Kanter and Edwards or Kanter and Poirier, make the other 2 picks and get one mid-level guy and still sneak just under the tax line.
 

nighthob

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You could re-sign Hayward, but then you have to figure out how to replace Kemba for the time he's going to miss in the covid-compressed season. Given Boston's public admissions and their sudden interest in Holiday, it's a cinch that Walker's knee is in worse shape than we think.

We like to talk about Hayward as a point forward, but he really isn't that good at it. He's a perfectly competent secondary ballhandler. But you really need someone that can get the ball across the halfcourt line against pressure. Which was the reason for the Walker signing in the first place (he fit as a guy that can be the primary ballcarrier while also being able to play off the ball in the halfcourt). If they'd known a global pandemic was on the horizon, they would have signed Rozier to a contract in line with Smart's (yes, he makes more than Smart, it was the minimum necessary to trade him for Walker) and been in great shape going forward. Unfortunately covid caught everyone off guard.
 

pjheff

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Given Boston's public admissions and their sudden interest in Holiday, it's a cinch that Walker's knee is in worse shape than we think.
It seems to me that we are drawing a lot of conclusions here from some pretty uncertain premises.
 

nighthob

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Gordon Hayward and a lottery pick for a backup C? Can I have a bit of what that dude's smoking?

It seems to me that we are drawing a lot of conclusions here from some pretty uncertain premises.
If Walker's completely healthy replacing Hayward with another secondary scorer that would be unhappy being an offensive fourth option seems a less than optimal use of resources. Of course it makes perfect sense if you're expecting to baby your other primary scorer and need someone capable of being the PG on night's when Kemba's watching the games in street clothes.
 

Three10toLeft

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If we can pass Walker off on to the Pels in a deal for Holliday, sign me up. I’d even be happy paying a tax by including those picks. The last couple years of the Walker deal are going to be ugly and quite an albatross.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, at 18 per, it’s a decent contract for his 24/25/26 year old seasons, but how much of an upgrade is he over Theis?
He's a downgrade, honestly. He's not a terribly good screener (which Boston needs its centers to be good at), not much of a defender outside gaudy shotblocking numbers that people Ooooh & Aaaah over. Offensively he's a decent three point threat for a C, but he doesn't really do much more than that. I know that everyone's dreaming that CBS Magic™ can transform Turner into the next Al Horford, but at this point I think he is what is, a really limited C getting 2-3 times his value in the modern NBA.
 

nighthob

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If we can pass Walker off on to the Pels in a deal for Holliday, sign me up. I’d even be happy paying a tax by including those picks. The last couple years of the Walker deal are going to be ugly and quite an albatross.
As much as we'd all like to turn Walker into a 6'4" secondary scorer that provides excellent defense at the G spot, you can't really do that to a new FA signing without incurring the wrath of the agent class. Any trade that sees Walker outbound really has to be with his blessing, which is why some people have wondered if the Knicks weren't a possibility as Kemba might like playing for his home team.
 

PedroKsBambino

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We like to talk about Hayward as a point forward, but he really isn't that good at it. He's a perfectly competent secondary ballhandler. But you really need someone that can get the ball across the halfcourt line against pressure.
Which is why Marcus Smart is relevant. Your fixation on Walker’s knee is leading you to make a set of statement that are well beneath you. Step away from the ledge nighthob!!!!
 

PedroKsBambino

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nighthob

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Which is why Marcus Smart is relevant. Your fixation on Walker’s knee is leading you to make a set of statement that are well beneath you. Step away from the ledge nighthob!!!!
It's not my "fixation". Ainge has publicly admitted that Walker's knee is going to be a problem going forward. If he were completely healthy they wouldn't be looking to replace Hayward with Holiday, there'd be a ton of different options for them. If the rumors are true then Boston sees shoring up the G spot as a priority whereas shoring up the wing would be a bigger priority in a vacuum.
 

Three10toLeft

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As much as we'd all like to turn Walker into a 6'4" secondary scorer that provides excellent defense at the G spot, you can't really do that to a new FA signing without incurring the wrath of the agent class. Any trade that sees Walker outbound really has to be with his blessing, which is why some people have wondered if the Knicks weren't a possibility as Kemba might like playing for his home team.
It’s certainly not a great look, but I think the players ultimately have a short memory with those things. Wasn’t the IT4 trade supposed to ruin them?

Other than the premium top tier players, Lebron’s & Giannis’, they’re not going to let that stop them from signing with the Celtics if the money is right and they’re interested in playing for them.
 

benhogan

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Worth noting that doesn’t work on the trade machine. But could as a sign and trade...or if you add Oladipo back to Celtics in addition to Turner. Which I don’t love but fits value wise much more than what is above
Anytime Hayward is being discussed in a trade a 3rd team (like Atl/NYK) needs to be involved. The C's don't want to import filler to match GH's contract
 

BigSoxFan

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Anytime Hayward is being discussed ina trade a 3rd team (like Atl/NYK) needs to be involved. Money/contract/cap/repeater is one of the main reasons to move him. The C's don't want to import filler.
Yup with Celtics using some or all of their 2020 picks to facilitate movement of Hayward into someone's cap space. There is definitely a deal to be made somewhere.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Anytime Hayward is being discussed in a trade a 3rd team (like Atl/NYK) needs to be involved. Money/contract/cap/repeater are the main reasons to move him. The C's don't want to import filler.
That is not a necessity for their cap and tax situation, as has been explained a number of times. Especially since the adjustment. We’ll see—I think they value the salary slot
 
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pjheff

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If Walker's completely healthy replacing Hayward with another secondary scorer that would be unhappy being an offensive fourth option seems a less than optimal use of resources. Of course it makes perfect sense if you're expecting to baby your other primary scorer and need someone capable of being the PG on night's when Kemba's watching the games in street clothes.
We are allowing one ambiguous Kevin O’Connor tweet to be the equivalent of Kristy Swanson relaying that Ferris passed out at 31 Flavors last night.
 

nighthob

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It’s certainly not a great look, but I think the players ultimately have a short memory with those things. Wasn’t the IT4 trade supposed to ruin them?
I'm not sure who thought that, they didn't even sign Lil Zeke, that was Phoenix. They traded for him.

We are allowing one ambiguous Kevin O’Connor tweet to be the equivalent of Kristy Swanson relaying that Ferris passed out at 31 Flavors last night.
I mean aside from the fact that the tweet wasn't terribly ambiguous and Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward you're completely on point here.
 

pjheff

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I mean aside from the fact that the tweet wasn't terribly ambiguous and Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward you're completely on point here.
Is that the part where he said, "I have all the confidence in the world that Kemba will be back and healthy and fresh and ready."

 

pjheff

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I mean aside from the fact that the tweet wasn't terribly ambiguous and Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward you're completely on point here.
As for the tweet: “The Celtics have emerged as a potential destination for Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. Boston could package its three firsts (14, 26, and 30) to move into the lottery and flip the pick to New Orleans. More details and rumors in my latest mock draft”

Is there any real intelligence of high level talks between the two teams, or a clever use of passive voice to spitball a rumor and generate clicks?
 

DannyDarwinism

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As for the tweet: “The Celtics have emerged as a potential destination for Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. Boston could package its three firsts (14, 26, and 30) to move into the lottery and flip the pick to New Orleans. More details and rumors in my latest mock draft”

Is there any real intelligence of high level talks between the two teams, or a clever use of passive voice to spitball a rumor and generate clicks?
‘Tis the season for disinformation, and I get the sense that Ainge uses it liberally, but is that KoC’s M.O.? I thought he generally plays it straight, and has some contacts with the front office?
 

PedroKsBambino

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I mean aside from the fact that the tweet wasn't terribly ambiguous and Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward you're completely on point here.
What’s the specific quote you are referring to?
 

DJnVa

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There’s 1 quote that everyone is using to support their own narrative

“I don’t know the answer to that yet, but whatever it is, we’ll be ready for that,” Ainge told reporters Wednesday via video conference, per MassLive. “I have all the confidence in the world that Kemba will be back, and healthy, and fresh, ready.

“There could be maintenance issues during the offseason and early part of the season,” he added, “But at some point he’ll be back and ready to go.”
 

nighthob

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Is that the part where he said, "I have all the confidence in the world that Kemba will be back and healthy and fresh and ready."

No, it's the part where he admits that they don't know what the answer is with Walker and that they have to prioritize his health going forward because they have three more years of the contract. It even appeared in this very thread, you can go look.

‘Tis the season for disinformation, and I get the sense that Ainge uses it liberally, but is that KoC’s M.O.? I thought he generally plays it straight, and has some contacts with the front office?
Yeah, O'Connor doesn't need to produce Twitter clickbait, he usually plays it straight. So if he's hearing that Boston is looking to trade for Holiday he heard it from somebody, even if from the Pelicans (now they might have reason for spreading disinformation). I still think that the most likely deal is Holiday straight up for #6 as that gets the Hawks closer to their goal of playing a postseason series. I'm not sure what Boston could get from a Hayward deal that would top that, especially as I'm not sure there's a top ten pick available for what they have.
 

radsoxfan

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I have faith Ainge and the FO know more than us with regards to Kemba's health. Clearly they knew when to cut bait with IT.

But I'll be honest all the Kemba trade talk bums me out, he was genuinely really good in the regular season and such a lockeroom upgrade. Everyone already here seems ready to show him the door, without anything particularly great in return.

I know Kemba wasn't good in the playoffs but it was such a weird year. Knee arthritis sucks, but its not always rapidly progressive. He might still be OK next year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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No, it's the part where he admits that they don't know what the answer is with Walker and that they have to prioritize his health going forward because they have three more years of the contract. It even appeared in this very thread, you can go look.
So, where did he say what you claim above: " Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward" because that simply isn't what the article says.
 

mcpickl

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View: https://twitter.com/massey_evan/status/1326984755259301893?s=21


“More details on the #Celtics and #Pacers discussions for Myles Turner. Gordon Hayward and No. 14 pick is the likely offer. Both sides seem intrigued by the deal.”
I've never heard of this dude. If it doesn't come from Woj, Shams, Zach Lowe, Chris Haynes or one of the Marcs(Stein/Spears), I'm pretty skeptical.

I'd be very surprised if Danny Ainge had any real interest in Turner. Ainge seems pretty happy to have mid-priced guys who can play center only and spend his money/resources everywhere else.
 

BigSoxFan

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I have faith Ainge and the FO know more than us with regards to Kemba's health. Clearly they knew when to cut bait with IT.

But I'll be honest all the Kemba trade talk bums me out, he was genuinely really good in the regular season and such a lockeroom upgrade. Everyone already here seems ready to show him the door, without anything particularly great in return.

I know Kemba wasn't good in the playoffs but it was such a weird year. Knee arthritis sucks, but its not always rapidly progressive. He might still be OK next year.
The problem is that there is a year after and then another year after that, right when the Jay’s are about to be close to full throttle. If I can unload Kemba’s deal this offseason and not take a huge PR hit, I’m doing it, even if the return value isn’t great.

It stinks because, like you, I really enjoy rooting for him but I have real concerns about his health and effectiveness the next 3 years.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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I have faith Ainge and the FO know more than us with regards to Kemba's health. Clearly they knew when to cut bait with IT.

But I'll be honest all the Kemba trade talk bums me out, he was genuinely really good in the regular season and such a lockeroom upgrade. Everyone already here seems ready to show him the door, without anything particularly great in return.

I know Kemba wasn't good in the playoffs but it was such a weird year. Knee arthritis sucks, but its not always rapidly progressive. He might still be OK next year.
My concern is he had like 4 months off before the bubble and didn't come back any better.
 

radsoxfan

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My concern is he had like 4 months off before the bubble and didn't come back any better.
I hear that, it's possible he is cooked. Like I said, Danny and the medical staff have more info than us on that front.

But arthritis can take a strange and winding course, a few bad months doesn't always mean its downhill forever. Not a great omen, but these things can wax and wane.

Just saying I think there is a reasonable chance, with our admittedly limited info, that he's not actually cooked yet. It's not like has been bad for a couple of years, he was good pretty recently.
 

tbb345

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So, where did he say what you claim above: " Ainge literally admitted publicly that Walker's knee was a problem going forward" because that simply isn't what the article says.
It’s not nearly as cut and dried as nighhob is making it out to be. He’s injecting more than a little of his own thoughts and commentary into these posts (which is pretty much the point of a message board)

Someone earlier in this thread said that it seems like Walker probably has arthritis in his knee and that it’s very common in the NBA but Walkers is probably worse than normal and will need to be managed. To me that falls squarely between “there’s nothing wrong here” and “his knees cooked”....that also seems to fall in line with Ainge’s quote about not having a plan yet but he’s confident that they will develop a plan for Kemba to be as healthy as possible and that they owe that to him and the team because he’s under contract for 3 more years (which is quite a bit different than “we have no idea what’s going on but we are stuck with this guy for 3 more years)

I agree that going after Jrue is more about filling a salary slot and getting another good player than any further indictment on Kemba’s knee. Jrue’s a very good player that can defend wings...and even if he wasn’t capable of defending wings, Smart is more than capable himself. I also don’t see a bevy of wings available for Hayward.

On twitter @dangercart proposed this trade that I like and seems fairly realistic:

BOS gives up Hayward, Romeo, 14, 26, 30 and receives Jrue Holiday and TJ Warren

IND gives up Myles Turner, TJ McConnell, and TJ Warren gets back Gordon Hayward, Romeo Langford, and the 13th pick

NO gives up Jrue and 13 gets back Myles Turner, TJ McConnell and pick 7.

DET gives up pick 7 and gets picks 14, 26 and 30.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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One thing I will never understand about these discussions. If we message boarders can figure that Kemba has knee issues that might make his contract an albatross, what NBA GM is going to trade for him?
 

nighthob

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It’s not nearly as cut and dried as nighhob is making it out to be. He’s injecting more than a little of his own thoughts and commentary into these posts (which is pretty much the point of a message board)
People seem to be attributing someone else’s position to me, I’m not saying the knee is cooked, I’m saying that Boston’s openly admitting that there are problems (and there are few 30 year olds in the NBA without knee problems), but that they might be a little worse than they’ve publicly said if the rumor is true and they’re suddenly looking to shore up the G spot despite the fact that the player leaving is a F.

In a vacuum if you’re losing Hayward you ideally want another switchable wing to put out there with the Jay-Crew. But it seems that they’re going in the opposite direction and shoring up the G spot. Almost like they think that there are going to be a lot of backcourt minutes that need to be filled. Which totally makes sense if they’re going the load management route with Kemba. And that is sort of SOP with stars that have chronic conditions (see Leonard, Kawhi).
 

PedroKsBambino

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What evidence is there that they are shoring up the guard spot?

Seems like we have zero data on what they think or are going to do right now
 

pjheff

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What evidence is there that they are shoring up the guard spot?

Seems like we have zero data on what they think or are going to do right now
This thread is operating on three premises as if they are certain:

1) Kemba's knee is fucked and the team is saddled with his contract

2) The league's finances are fucked and the team is desperate to move salary even if it costs them assets to do so

3) Gordon Hayward's juju is fucked, he's overqualified to be a fourth option which is a bad thing, and he's leaving after the season anyway, so the team is best off moving him now
 

BigSoxFan

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This thread is operating on three premises as if they are certain:

1) Kemba's knee is fucked and the team is saddled with his contract

2) The league's finances are fucked and the team is desperate to move salary even if it costs them assets to do so

3) Gordon Hayward's juju is fucked, he's overqualified to be a fourth option which is a bad thing, and he's leaving after the season anyway, so the team is best off moving him now
The thread is operating on these premises as if there is a decent probability of at least some of them being true. There is always going to be speculation involved in an offseason discussion thread. I'm not sure what's so controversial here. Obviously, none of us know what's going on behind the scenes but sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire. We'll probably know a lot more in a few days.

What we do know:

1. There are real questions about the current and long-term health of Kemba's knee

2. The Celtics have luxury tax considerations they need to deal with

3. Hayward might not opt in to the final year of his deal and is unlikely to get a long-term deal without Kemba being moved

So, I don't see where discussing somewhat plausible scenarios is an issue. That was the entire premise of this thread.
 

PedroKsBambino

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There's a difference between a belief and a fact. "I think Kemba's knee is toast and thus they will focus on a PG" or "I can't see how Hayward is here beyond this year, so they need a wing" are perfectly valid theories and good fodder for discussion.

"Anytime Hayward is being discussed in a trade a 3rd team (like Atl/NYK) needs to be involved" is not a fact (it's not even accurate). That's just an opinion and people need to recognize and state it as such.

Claiming the team has said Walker's knee is a problem not a fact---it's not even true---and we should post acknowledging that we may believe that to be the case, but the team has not said so.

The premise of the board is that people can distinguish between data and opinion and there's some struggling to do so in this thread, frankly.